PROGNOSFRUIT 2012

Toulouse, 3 August 2012

The Fruit Juice PerspectiveThe Fruit Juice Perspective

1

Jan Hermans

Secretary General

AIJN. European Fruit Juice Association

Content

PRESENTING AIJN

A HELICOPTER VIEW OF FRUIT JUICE IN THE EU

1

2

2

THE SLICE OF APPLE JUICE

SOURCING OF RAW MATERIAL-A GLOBAL BUSINESS

THE FERMENTED VERSION

3

4

5

� Created in 1958 as a special Common Market Committee within

the International Federation of Fruit Juice Producers

� Independant organization since 1962

� The Association represents the EU fruit juice industry from the

raw materials producers to the bottlers

1. Presenting AIJN

The European Fruit Juice Association

3

raw materials producers to the bottlers

� The main aim of the AIJN is to work for the best possible

political, regulatory and economic framework at EU level in

order to add value and promote the growth of the fruit juice

industry

Full & Affiliated Members

NORTH SEA

Denmark

Finland

Poland

Germany

Czech

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Belarus

Ukraine

Russia

Ireland

Great Britain

Norway

Nether-

lands

Belgium

Full Members

Affiliated MembersSweden

4

ATLANTIC OCEAN

MEDITERRANEAN SEA

France

Spain

Portugal

Greece

ItalyTurkey

Switzer-land

Austria

CzechRepublic

RomaniaHungary

SlovakiaMoldova

BulgariaMonte-negro

Serbia

Slovenia

CroatiaBosnia-Herze-govina

Mace-donia

Albania

Luxembourg

Malta

Cyprus

OBSERVER MEMBERS

5

Russian Union

of Juice

Producers

2. Fruit Juice in the EU. “A helicopter view”EU: Total fruit juice and nectars Population: 504,4 million

Volume, million litres 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 % change

Total 11,310 11,326 11,777 11,017 10,771 -2.2%

Private label 4,362 4,632 4,864 4,821 4,714 -2.2%

Branded 6,948 6,694 6,313 6,196 6,057 -2.3%

Fruit juice (100% juice content)

Total fruit juice 7,294 7,228 7,208 7,170 7,037 -1.9%

Private label 3,153 3,210 3,341 3,317 3,233 -2.5%

Share

43.8 %

56.2 %

Share

65.33

46 % Private label 3,153 3,210 3,341 3,317 3,233 -2.5%

Branded 4,141 4,018 3,867 3,853 3,804 -1.3%

Chilled 1,248 1,281 1,283 1,321 1,354 2.5%

Ambient 6,047 5,947 5,924 5,849 5,683 -2.8%

From concentrate 5,911 5,717 5,624 5,525 5,281 -4.4%

Not from concentrate 1,384 1,511 1,584 1,645 1,756 6.7%

Nectars (25-99% juice content)

Total nectars 4,016 4,098 3,970 3,847 3,734 -2.9%

Private label 1,209 1,422 1,523 1,504 1,481 -1.5%

Branded 2,807 2,676 2,446 2,343 2,253 -3.8%

46 %

54 %

19 %

81 %

75%

25%

34.67

40 %

60 %

Share of total EU market

of 10,771 M litres

• Germany (2,733) 25.4 %

• France (1,713) 15.9 %

• UK (1,369) 12.7 %

• Spain (1,068) 9.9 %

• Italy ( 808) 7.5 %

5 MS have share of 71.4 %

Largest EU FJN markets by volume consumption 2011

Largest EU FJN markets by per capita consumption 2011Largest EU FJN markets by per capita consumption 2011

Per capita consumption FJN in world

regions in l per person (population)

• EU 27 21.2 (504.4)

• West Europe 23.7 (415.4)

• East Europe 13.9 (400.3)

• North America 28.3 (345.1)

• Latin America 5.7 (599.5)

• Asia Pacific 1.7 (3,927,7)

• Africa & Mid East 2.8 (1,261,7)

Evolution of total FJN consumption (million l)10 years to end up back where we started

8

The Fruit Juice Belt vs Nectars Belt

Denmark

Finland

Poland

Germany

Czech

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Ireland

Great Britain

Norway

Nether-

lands

Belgium

Sweden˃ 70 % FJ

˃ 60 % FN

France

Spain

Portugal

Greece

Italy

Turkey

Switzer-land

Austria

CzechRepublic

RomaniaHungary

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Belgium

Lux

Malta

Cyprus

DK 99- FIN 88-IRL/UK/B 86- L 82- S 79- F 78 – GR 77- D 70 I 80- P 77- BG 76- SLO 67- RO/LT 62- LV 65

But at least consumers are trading up (million l)

10

They still like orange (million l)

Juice, EU24

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Countries & Flavors

Denmark

Finland

PolandGermany

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Ireland

Great Britain

Norway

Nether-

lands

Belgium

Sweden

˃ 50 % Orange JN

< 25 % Orange JN

France

Spain

Portugal

Greece

Italy

Turkey

Switzer-land

Austria

CzechRepublic

RomaniaHungary

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Belgium

Lux

Malta

Cyprus

3. The slice of Apple Juice% Apple JN in total FJN consumption per country

Denmark

Finland

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Ireland

Great Britain

Norway

Nether-

Sweden

30 – 33%

20 – 29.9%

15 – 19.9%

10 – 14.9%

1 – 9.9%Poland

France

Germany

Spain

Portugal

Greece

Italy

Turkey

Switzer-land

Austria

CzechRepublic

RomaniaHungary

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Great Britain

Slovenia

Nether-

lands

Belgium

Lux

Malta

1 – 9.9%

Cyprus

GER

4.Sourcing of FJ raw materials. A global businessRabobank Fruit Juice Map - 2010

Sourcing of raw materials for the EU FJ industry- 2011

Ukraine

7.5

Chile

9

AJC use by FJN industry

EU imports 228,000

Poland to EU 145,000

Poland 15,000

Germany 100,000

Italy 30,000

Other EU 100,000

Total 618,000 t

5. The fermented version

Volumein ‘000 HL

2012

CAGR2005 -

2012

19.2

MHL

Global

8.9%5.3% 23.3% 7.2% 4.5% 9.6% 1.6% -0.1% 6.0%

Regional Variations

<1 2 <13 <1<1 3 1 16Per

Capita

2012

Source: Canadean - proprietary figures

Cider 000’s HL Geographic Mix

Source: Canadean - proprietary figures

Cider type by region

Source: Canadean - proprietary figures

Cider 000’s HL By TypeCider 000’s HL By Type

Pear & Flavours Driving Growth

Source: Canadean - proprietary figures

AICV. European Cider and Fruit Wine Association

5

Denmark

Finland

Poland

Germany

Czech

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Ireland

Great Britain

Norway

Nether-

lands

Belgium

Sweden

France

Spain

Portugal

Greece

Italy

Turkey

Switzer-land

Austria

CzechRepublic

RomaniaHungary

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Slovenia

Belgium

Lux

Malta

Cider & Perry production figures 2011 + estimated AJC & PJC used

Country Cider & Perry

Total Production in million litres

Volumes of juice needed in million liters

Quantity of juice concentrate needed in Tons

Belgium 45,00 22,50 3750,00

Denmark 10,00 1,50 250,00

Finland 50,00 10,00 1670,00

France 100,00 100,00 16700,00France 100,00 100,00 16700,00

Germany 55,00 55,00 9200,00

Ireland 150,00 67,50 11270,00

Lithuania 20,00 10,00 1670,00

Spain 90,00 90,00 15000,00

Sweden 50,00 7,50 1250,00

UK 950,00 380,00 63500,00

TOTAL 1520,00 124.260,00

Volumes of juice needed for cider production are based upon estimated average % juice content in cider per country. This varies from 15 to 100 % depending on nat. Legislation.Assumption: 1 kg AJC (70 Brix) makes 5,99 litres AJ at 11,18 BrixBased upon estimated % of pear juice used the quantity of pear concentrate would be 10.185 t. Bittersweet juice concentrate in the 114.075 t of AJC estimated at 42.495 t

Thank you for

your attention

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