AOF SUGAR OUTLOOK - USDA€¦ · Balance Sheets Production (mt) 200M 150M 100M Map 2021/22 2021/22...
Transcript of AOF SUGAR OUTLOOK - USDA€¦ · Balance Sheets Production (mt) 200M 150M 100M Map 2021/22 2021/22...
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AOF SUGAR OUTLOOKFebruary 2021Presented by WWW.CZAPP.COM
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No.11 MARKET PRICE
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No.11 FORWARD CURVE
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12
12.5
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13.5
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14.5
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15.5
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16.5
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Mar'21 May'21 Jul'21 Oct'21 Mar'22 May'22 Jul'22 Oct'22 Mar'23 May'23 Jul'23 Oct'23
c/lb
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2020/21 BALANCE
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2.9m tonnes
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RAW SUGAR EXPORTERS 2020-2021
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2020 2021
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RAW SUGAR EXPORTERS 2022
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Thailand to Return
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BRAZIL – MAX SUGAR PRODUCTION AGAIN?
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BRL SUGAR RETURNS
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BRAZIL CS PRODUCTION FORECAST
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BRAZIL CROP RISKS? – DRY WEATHER
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THAILAND – WILL THE CROP BOUNCE BACK
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4mmt
But Cane availability is a big question mark:
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CAN THE EU ALSO REBOUND?
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We think so -
But yields will be the big question:
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EU ?
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KEY TAKE AWAYS
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• We expect the market to remain in a small surplus next year• This is expecting good crops across 4 key markets: Brazil, India, Thailand, and EU.• There are significant questions for all these crops
• Brazilian Cane quality• Thai Cane volume is an unknown• EU Yields• Indian monsoon
• However uncertainty is likely to remain for a while as Covid-19 disruptions continue to affect logistics and market sentiment.