Ancient Roots of Current Perceptions of Nature

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Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

Expecting the Unexpected: Some Ancient Roots to Current Perceptions of NatureAuthor(s): Ingela M. B. WimanSource: Ambio, Vol. 19, No. 2 (Apr., 1990), pp. 62-69Published by: Springer on behalf of Royal Swedish Academy of SciencesStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4313661 .Accessed: 28/08/2013 13:14

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Figure 1. A benign, globally stableNature as seen simplifled from ahumanist's mathematical perspec-tive. The ball symbolizes anecological system. The arrows rep-resent stress factors and the slop-ing sides of the bowl are meant toillustrate the always-return-be-havior of the ball or ecologicalsystem. (Modifled from Haken, H.1978. Synergetlcs. Springer Ver-lag, Berlin.)

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Figure 2a. Gala supervises the creation of Man by Prometheus on a Roman sarcophagus In the Museo Capitolina InRome. Gala is seen resting, looking at the active Prometheus. The Iconographical identification of Gala is the horn ofplenty. Her presence In this scene accentuates the peaceful and orderly character of the world as seen in this relief.(Sichtermann, H. and Koch, G. 1975 Grlechische Myten auf R0mlschen Sarkophagen. Ernst Wasmuth, Tubingen, Pi.165.)

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Figure 2b. Quite another Gala meets us on the great altar to Zeus from Pergamon, now transferred to Berlin. Atroubled Gala halfway underground Is watching the fight between the gods and the giants, both of whom are heroffspring (Pergamon Museum, Berlin).

part-truths r myths may unnecessarily m-prison the most important asset of man-kind; imaginative capability. Why shouldwe persist n seeing only what we expect tofind, instead of trying to handle the para-

dox of expecting the unexpected?

A BENEVOLENT R MISCHIEVOUSNATURE?One of the simplest and most comfortingcontemporary art-truths mplies that nat-ural systems are globally stable. This con-cept is outlined n Figure 1. Regardless ofthe character or magnitude of the distur-bance, the system will return towards itsoriginal stable state, or stable trajectory,once the stress is reduced. A globallystable system subjected to continuous orgradually ncreasing stress will either bekept at some distance from the equilib-rium, behaving predictably with no runa-way tendency, or it will effectively use in-herent stabilizing mechanisms balancingout the stress to regain equilibrium.

When the degraded state of, e.g. theNorth Sea is discussed in public debate,sentences like: . . . It will take a long timefor the sea to recover... reveal an un-conscious belief in a benign Nature. It is

then implicitly acknowledged that it willtake a long time, but the capability of theecological system to return to its formerstate is never questioned. This perceptioncovers a family of attitudes named by C.S.Holling as Nature Benign (8). A very closeparallel o this concept is found in the hu-man vision of a Mother Earth. This is aconcept rooted n ancient people's claim oa descent from Earth and a manifestedfeeling of affinity with Nature (9). Thisvision was current n the religious houghtsof man even after we had begun to confessin a male creator residing n heaven (10).The Greek term for mother earth wasGaia or Ge. The personified aspect of

Earth was introduced o Western thoughtby Hesiod in his Theogony, written about700 BC (11). Recent scholarly researchsuggests that this myth has deep roots in

older oriental speculation (12). Hesiodrecognized Gaia as the mother or grand-mother of all anthropomorphized spectsof Nature. Zeus, the chief god, was themost important of them all. He did not

reside in a remote heavenly abode, butmanifested himself in the everyday atmo-spheric and meteorological phenomena.Above all, the Theogony aims at glorifyingthe rightful rule of Zeus, who, very inter-estingly, reigned with the consent and ap-proval of Gaia (Figs 2a and 2b).

Nature perceived as a mischievoustroublemaker, hus somewhat of a noisyperson , a practical joker , followingHolling's categorization, s another part-truth, where one additional ncrement, amere fraction of a stress, can flip the sys-tem across the boundary of stabilizingcapacity into a totally different mode ofbehavior (8). Thoughts like this probably

had a strong influence on the ancients.Evidence abounds of superstitious eassur-ances against such an almost cunninglycapricious, noisy and chaotic Nature. Man

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strived to deal with Nature then in differ-ent ways, for instance by rigorously follow-ing rituals in every aspect of life; such asexemplified by the Etrusca disciplina,practiced by the Etruscans, (13) (Fig. 3).A typically instrumental attitude towardsNature was manifested in the engineeringhabits of the Roman people, whose fear ofthe wilderness is amply exemplified bytheir writers (14). Nature in its properappearance was conceived as a huge well-maintained garden with human manipula-tion everywhere present, wilderness andunpredictability having been engineeredout of the natural environment (Fig.4).This fear of Nature and the resulting needto experience feelings of control manifestthemselves even today in various forms ofpseudosciences like astrology.

ANEVER-CHANGING R SOMETIMES-CHANGING ATURE?The Greek philosophers living in AsiaMinor in the 6th century BC were the firstto refrain from mythological and super-stitious thinking about Nature and turnedto rational conceptions. They have left uswith the first records of systematic think-ing about Nature and Nature's functionswithout recoiling upon theological expla-nations. By their contemporaries theywere not called philosophers but phy-siologoi- observers of Nature. Therefore,it is interesting to look at modern parttruths in the light of this early thinking.

A concept of an ever-changing naturalenvironment, a group of attitudes encom-passing Holling's Ephemeral Nature , in-fers complete lack of stable behavior ofecological systems. They are perceived asfragile and caught in a natural rhythm ofsmall-scale extinctions (Fig. 5) (8). Thus,there exists no true stability. An earlyforeboding of such a perception of themodus operandi of Nature can be ascribedto Heraclitus, who lived and workedaround 500 BC. You never step twiceinto the same river or; Upon those whoare stepping into the same rivers differentand different waters flow (15), he is saidto have taught, since panta rei -every-thing is in a state of flux, always and con-tinuously, or at least in undetectable steps,transforming into another state of be-havior (16). However, the works of Herac-litus are preserved only in fragments andquotations by other ancient authors.Therefore, it might be more justified touse expressions like: Plato says thatHeraclitus said that . . . This situation nat-urally causes uncertainty regarding the ac-tual thoughts of Heraclitus. BertrandRussell gives the above interpretations ofhis teachings (17). According to G.S.Kirk, the panta rei quotation involves amisconception by Plato and Aristotle, tak-ing it as an illustration of the behavior ofthings in general, whereas, Heraclitus didnot deny stability to the natural world. Onthe contrary, his main purpose seems to beto assert such a stability, which accordingto him underlies all change, and mostnotably change between opposites (18).Understood like this, the suggestionemerges that Heraclitus' world view was avery early foreboding version of such resil-ient, flip-flop and even chaotic features of

natural systems now being introduced intophysics and theoretical ecology (19).

However, real ecosystems are not sta-tic or completely determined. Variabilityand change are the rule and provide thenext step toward reality, with a view of aResilient Nature (8). This attitude to-wards Nature is in its simplest definitiondescribed as a combination of certainproperties of the three others describedabove. Thus, the ideas of Heraclitus arereborn as attitudes covered by the Natu-ral Resilient family by C.S. Holling,

Figure 3. The soothsayer (haruspex) Chalcas ex-amining a liver taken from a sacrificed animal.

According to Etruscan belief, the liver was partedin many bits, each controlled by a certain divinity.Ifa mark or spot was visible at a location attributedto Zeus (named Tinia among the Etruscans), thisgod was the one wanting to communicate some-thing or other. Thus, this liver in the hand of Chal-cas served the purpose of an early warning sys-tem. (Etruscan mirror, Vatican Museum, Rome).

rather than by the Ephemeral Naturegroup (20). If so, it took two and a halfmillenia to rediscover a path of thinkingnow gaining momentum in environmentalscience (Fig.6). Carl von Linne probablyimagined a predictable, benign Nature,

Natura non facit saltus (Nature doesn'tmake jumps), he taught (21). However,the possibilities of a surprising and sur-prised world, actually facit saltus, is gain-ing ground among biomathematical scien-tists (22). Consequently, the reactions of aseriously disturbed Nature might be funda-mentally unpredictable.

A VINDICTIVE R FORGIVINGNATURE?In the spring and early summer of 1988several alarming incidents in the Scandina-vian environment were reported in the dailynewspapers, and gave echo in the scientificliterature. Large numbers of seals, mostlyPagofilus groenlandicus, were founddrowned in the coastal waters off Norway.Hunger was driving them into the fisher-men's nets, probably because their staplediet, the capilan (Mallotus villosus) (23) inBarent's Sea, had been overfished. In1987, the Norwegian government prohib-ited all fishing of capilan, but a year beforethis decision, in 1986, a quota of 120 000tonnes was ensured. That same year thecapilan stock collapsed (24).

In the coastal waters of Skagerrak andKattegat, huge uncontrolled blooms of thetoxic algae, Chrysochromulina polylepis,were reported. The toxin in combinationwith the vast quantities of decomposingalgae caused further degradation of thealready stressed ecological systems in thispart of the North Sea. The alarming sightof floating dead fish and the possibility offurther deaths beneath the surface per-suaded parliamentarians of the NorthernCouncil to announce an extra session inNovember 1988 on environmental prob-lems and pollution of the sea. In Sweden,

Figure 4. Wall painting from Pompeii kept in Museo Nazionale in Naples. This type of landscape, withhuman manipulation everywhere present, reflects the urge among the Romans to tame Nature, exercisingcontrol in every aspect. (Mural painting from Pompeii, National Museum, Naples).

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ad hoc groups were constituted by the en-vironmental authorities to investigate thesituation (25).

These are just a few examples, manymore could be put forward. It is not un-natural o the human instinct to conceivethese reactions of a stressed Nature as arevenge; impersonal Nature suddenlyturning not only into a mischievious Being,but into a vindictive one. Nature's re-venge , or words to that effect, is impliedin quite a number of books, articles, and npublic debate during he last few decades;perhaps pertaining more to a deeplyrooted fear of Nature than to merely sup-erficial words (26). In a sense this attitudeconstitutes n a nutshell our strangely am-bivalent perceptions of how Man relateshimself to Nature; sometimes as hersuperior master, with a presumed missionto completely taming her and eventuallydisconnecting ny possible dependence onher and on other occasions suddenly herslave, being looked upon in anger asthough we were brought back to Atlantis,punished by the gods for ill-judged actions(27). The God of the Old Testament oftenpunished mankind through natural disas-ters such as the Great Flood or swarms oflocusts (28) consuming the fields of themighty Pharaoh. There is a two-edgeddanger in assigning to Nature these pun-ishing powers of God. First, there mightbe traced an antihumanistic and cynicalcomfort in this attitude. If mankind doesnot behave properly, Nature will engineerhim out herself thereby creating a new andmuch more beautiful world devoid of theirritating uman species. That s one of thereasons why this attitude might be a dan-gerous one, as it might ead to romanticiz-ing and eventually o apathy. Opposite tothis impossible view is another, equallymeaningless, hat Man must engineer Na-ture out from the future before the reversecomes true. Only machines, not humanbeings, could exist in a completely artifi-cial environment. t seems important hat

BOX 1

It is the year 2001 A.D. and the birthpangs of a new era have subsided

The era of liquid fossil fuels is bythe close of the century coming to anend . . . . atomic energy has not provedto be an expedient way of lengtheningthe period in which man taps thesources of energy stored in the Earth'scrust.

Solar energy, on the other hand,... by the end of the century is thedominating actor in the production ofindustrial power. With cheap powerthe economical production of fresh wa-ter from the sea has become a reali-ty..,. and more than one desert near aseacoast a garden spot.

Rapid progress n the utilization ofsolar energy. . (3).

Figure 5. Constable's Cloudsexemplify a type of ephemeralnatural phenomenon and shapenever to repeat Itself exactly andneeding non-Euclldian geometry -for adequate description.

, $ , oS~~N%

we recognize such seemingly bizarre ex-tremes in the range of our perceptions ofNature. Of course, Nature never revengesbut merely reacts; and there are importantlessons to learn from these reactions. InJune 1988, other algae had alreadyappeared and the dominance of the Chry-sochromulina was broken. Stabilizingmechanisms eemed to have begun to op-erate.

Herodotus (484-425 BC) already knewthat a natural system can act in a self-regulating manner. He noted that pre-dators breed fewer young than do theirprey (29). Such controlling and adjustingforces face us in the Gaia hypothesis for-mulated by James Lovelock (30). Accord-ing to this hypothesis our entire planetshould be looked upon as a superorgan-ism. The theoretical basis for this idea con-sists in biological climate-controllingmechanisms. The biosphere is hy-pothesized to cooperate with the atmo-sphere (in turn linked with the hydro-sphere, lithosphere and cryosphere) toform a geophysiological entity (31) inorder to maintain a climate suitable or lifeon Earth. Likewise, evidence in favor ofthe hypothesis s based mainly on the sug-gestion that the climate has been suitablefor life as long as life itself has existed (32).

BOX 2

The deserts expand .The forests, with their immense

wealth of life forms, retreat. Thebuild-up of carbon dioxide and othergases in the air threaten with seriousclimatic changes .

Hundreds of millions of people livein poverty. . . .

. . . toxic pollutants continue tothreaten he health of both people andecosystems.. . (4).

NATURE LIKESTO HIDE TSELFThe quotation from Heraclitus, Naturelikes to hide itself , serves the purpose ofreminding us that we, as parts of Nature,presumably, an never grasp the full com-plexity of all her mechanisms (33).Theoretical ecology, although partly em-pirically supported, is a construction ofthought and it is only from the fruits ofvarious such theoretical constructions hatwe can judge its actual value. A further

Figure 6. A surprising Nature as seen In amathematical model. Again the ball symbolizes an

ecological system and arrows stress factors (Fig.1). Stability domains are seen as two adjacentbowls. If the system Is driven to the end of Itsstability domain the ball might fall back but Itmight as well fall down Into a completely new wayof behavior. (Modified from Haken, H. 1978. Syn-ergetics. Springer Verlag, Berlin.)

BOX 3

It appears then, that the fairest andfruitfullest provinces of the RomanEmpire... are now completely ex-hausted of their fertility, or so di-minished in productiveness, as, withthe exception of a few favoured oasesthat have escaped the general ruin, tobe no longer capable of affording uste-nance to civilized man.

With the extirpation of the forest,all is changed... climate becomes ex-cessive ...

... The precipitation becomes as ir-regular as the temperature ..

... The face of the earth is no longera sponge ...

... Almost every narrative of travelin those countries which were the ear-liest seats of civilization, contains evi-dence of the truth of these generalstatements... (5).

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task of this paper is to discuss the intrinsicvalues and different consequences of someof the various theories presented above.

One great merit of the Gaia hypothesislies in the constructive discussions and newscientific directions that it has initiated.Mechanisms appear to exist which implynatural systems, or at least sub-systems,operating in a stabilizing way. WithoutLovelock's work one example of such apotentially Gaian mechanism might neverhave been subjected to analysis and scien-tific debate, i.e. the possible climate con-trolling effects of marine phytoplanktonproducing dimethylsulfide (DMS) (31).Works like this seem to have influencedthe detection of other planktonic mecha-nisms and the great role played by mic-roorganisms for instance in the interactionbetween different ecological systems (34).The quotation: If you do not expect theunexpected you will not find it..., couldbe applied in reverse here, since once anatural phenomenon has been describedor suggested, we obviously strive to get themeans to recognize it even if a clear-cutand incontestable theory is lacking (35).

From the aspects of theoretical ecologythe existence per se of this type of homeos-tatic mechanism seems to be supported,albeit not on this large spatial and tempor-al scale. However, it is imperative tonotice that, as yet, very little is knownabout the vulnerability of several suchmechanisms. There is support for thestandpoint that stabilizing capacity in natu-ral systems only operates within stabilitydomains; the DMS-thermostat process re-ferred to above, if it exists, might thenhave its limits and might start to flip in anunpredictable manner to another type ofstabilization. Recent research, devoted tostability theory of ecological systems, sug-gested that complex ecological systems aremore vulnerable to stress than are lesscomplex ones (36). To the limited extentthat Gaian mechanisms have so far beeninvestigated or adequately understood, itis clear that their operation requires ex-tremely complex sets of biological, chemi-

NATURE BENIGNImpact (e.g. concentration ofgreenhouse gases)

systems change (e.g. meanlatitude of some biome)

TIME >

Figure 7. Assumed behavior by a benevolent orbenign Nature if exposed to any kind of stress.Once the stress is lessened or removed the sys-tem in question will start to adjust itself somewhatdelayed to the well-known former state of be-havior. (Figure by Bo. L. B. Wiman.)

cal, and physical feedbacks and linkages,operating within an enormous spatial,from biochemical macromolecules to vastformations of clouds, and temporal, fromfast biochemical cellular reactions to long-term changes in solar input, range. Figure6 aims at illustrating how ecological sys-tems may change from one mode of opera-tion to another. Once a system, like theball in Figure 6, has been pushed beyondthe boundaries of its stability domain, itmight fall back, but it might very well endup in a totally different behavioral pattern.

RHEA-MECHANISMS NA RESILIENTNATURE?Thus, a combination of stabilizing proces-ses such as implied by the Gaia hypothesisand the varying degrees of vulnerability indifferent kinds of ecological systems mightat present favor a conception of resilientbehavior incorporating a potential for sur-prise in natural systems. As a intellectualexperiment, let us see where this line ofreasoning may lead. Perceiving naturalsystems in such an integrated manner,Gaia plus surprise, would not deny theexistence of Gaian-like mechanisms, if re-stricted to many micro-Gaias working on alocal basis. C.S. Holling touches upon this

SURPRISING SURPRISED)NATUREimpact e.g. concentration of ..greenhouse gases)

systems change (e.g. meanlatitude of some biome)

TIME >

Figure 8. Surprising Nature behavior. At sometime in the system's history, the stress factor hasremoved the system beyond Its stability domain,the system starts to flip in an uncontrolled man-ner, possibly involving not only rapid change, butalso an increased frequency of extreme events.(Figure by Bo L. B. Wiman.)

Figure 9. Laconian cup from Museo Etrusco Greg-oriano in the Vatican, Rome. To the left Atlasstands holding the flrmament and to the right isPrometheus bound to a pillar and helplessly ex-posed to the vulture feeding on his liver. Zeus wasIn his way punishing Prometheus (he-who-possesses-forethought) since he had tried to out-wit the gods and helped his protege, man, to ob-tain possession of fire. Bound like this, Prom-etheus might symbolize the safe-fali technologywhen overlooked or ignored. During Prometheus'absence his unfortunate brother Epimetheus (he-who-thinks-afterwards), mong other thingsmarried Pandora. In her famous dowry, the box,were kept all kinds of nuisances later to be spreadout and henceforth harass mankind. VaticanMuseum, Rome.)

FigurelO. Aworkof , ,art from Ravenna,Italy the site of an-cient and modernschools of mosaicsin divine service,Jerry Carter's inspir-ing vision of the Sec-ond Genesis, a glassmosaic/relief free-standing concavemonument.

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in the formulation Ecosystems are gaiawrit small (22). As an example, we mayconsider processes n action when a cush-ion of moss strives to maintain its innermicroclimate. When such small-scale sys-tems are hierarchically coordinated intolarger units, finally encompassing he totalglobe, we could talk of Rhea-mechanisms.Rhea was the daughter of Gaia andmother of most of the next-generationOlympic Greek gods; so Rhea-mecha-nisms would be a further elaboration ofGreek mythological erminology. A Rhea-mechanism hould thus correspond o thatspecificdaughter of Gaia that during a cer-tain period of Earth's history acted ascoordinator f the biosphere. If exposed tostress beyond her collected experience shewould hand over this coordinating unc-tion to another Rhea-mechanism withother types of tailor-made properties 37).One question to consider n this context isthe extension of the stability domain ofsuch a superior controller. Is it, in accord-ance with suggestions from the theory ofcomplex systems, small and vulnerable, or

are other ecological principles at workhere? This Rhea-concept, however, likethe one of a superior Gaia-organism tilllacks empirical upport 38). The main val-ue of a Rhea-concept would be its poten-tial for unifying the otherwise incompat-ible concepts of Lovelock and Holling.

ENVIRONMENTAL ISTORYAnother shift in the operational mode ofsuch a surprising-or perhaps rather sur-prised-Nature was recently detected,enabling exemplification of the aboveideas by the aid of what may now be con-sidered classical environmental history.

About twenty years ago, it was fearedthat the emission of oxides of nitrogen di-rectly into the stratosphere by the super-sonic airplanes could seriously affect theozone layer (39). Hitherto, this fear hasnot been verified. Instead, in 1985 alarm-ing reports rom British scientists ndicateda large-scale depletion of the ozone layerabove the Antarctic continent every Oc-tober, the so-called ozone hole (40).The following year these observationswere verified by the Nimbus 7 satellite(41).

Interestingly enough, seen in the con-text of preconceived views of Nature'sreactions, nformation bout this depletionwas reported by the satellite several yearsbefore the problem was discovered by theBritish scientists and nearly one decadebefore it was published by NASA. Thecomputerized technical informationroutines were programmed n 1978 (whenNimbus 7 went into orbit) to discard ex-tremes, such as the October readings, asunrealistic (42). The setting up of theseroutines may thus have been inadvertentlyaffected by too narrow a perception re-garding Nature's behavioral patterns, .e.,Nature couldn't possibly change so drasti-cally. Neither was the hole in any waypredicted by physicochemical models.

Advanced technology does not seem toprovide efficient early warnings about en-vironmental damage, unless based uponnonprejudiced attitudes towards Nature.Furthermore, technical observations are

complements, not substitutes for humanpowers of observation and combining.

WHAT LESSONS CAN BE LEARNEDFOR THE FUTURE?It would be wise to recognize hat the elas-ticity of natural systems has its limits and,if sufficiently stressed, the systems mightbreak down-and lead to surprise n timeand space. Nature is forgiving-to a cer-tain degree-and does not shift capri-ciously following minor perturbations.This means that we are faced with a funda-mentally new task n formulating ppropri-ate management policies and riskphilosophies. Firstly, we must be awarethat the resilient property mplies that ifhuman mpacts ncrease gradually, naturalsystems may seem deceptively unaffected.Disruption of stabilizing apacity an comerapidly, beyond the point of no return. Anextremely mportant research ask is thento find out whether tendencies towardssuch disruption an be sensed while thereis still time for counteracting measures. It

may well be that such signs of the systempreparing o shift from one domain ofstability o another will take the form ofincreasing frequency of extreme events(43) such as flooding, droughts, blizzards,an unusual number of algal blooms, gras-shopper nvasions, forest fires, etc. If weaccept the idea visualized in Figure 6,there should be at least some time-albeitlittle-available on the threshold, wherethe system is in unstable equilibrium, be-fore the no-return i.e. runaway) behaviorstarts. Given that methods are developedto assess that the system is approachingthis point, and given that counteractingmeasures can be applied fast enough thesystem can be forced back (44).Can such methods be designed? Here, itseems to be a fundamental question ofunderstanding he mathematics used bynatural systems. But, to an author fromthe humanities, above all it seems to be anessential question of realizing hat we areimprisoned in a deceptive perceptionwhere Nature is assumed to add up num-bers the way we do ourselves: wo plus twoare four. But Nature obviously calculatesquite differently, adding up anthropogenicimpacts such as increasing evels of man-made greenhouse gases with natural im-pacts from, e.g. volcanic eruptions orchanges in solar activity in unexpectedmanners 45).

.... And it came about during this yearthat a most dread portent took place. Forthe sun gave forth its light without bright-ness, like the moon, during this wholeyear, and it seemed exceedingly like thesun in eclipse, for the beams it shed werenot clear nor such as it is accustomed oshed. And from the time when this thinghappened men were free neither rom warnor pestilence nor any other thing leadingto death. And it was the time when Justi-nian was in the tenth year of his reign(46). The tenth year of Justinians' eignwas 536-537 AD. Stothers has combined

this quoted passage from Procopius withthe fact that a very high sulfuric acid signalhas been detected in the Greenland icecore dated 540 ? 10 AD. This acid signal san indication of some major tropical erup-

tion at that time (47). Indeed, a majoreruption it must have been, temporarilydarkening he sun so much that the fruitsdid not ripen . Luckily for Procopius andhis contemporaries here was at that timeno large-scale or global dispersion of manmade pollutants o add to the disaster. Ob-viously, Nature did return to its originalstate of behavior after this nonan-thropogenic ncident.

GREENHOUSE FFECTSA well-known diagram giving the result ofmeasurements (Mauna Loa, Hawaii) ofconcentrations f carbon dioxide n the at-mosphere clearly shows an increasingcurve from 1960to 1985 (48). A long-termseries of temperatures rom about 1850un-til the present conclusively presents a risein temperature f about 0.50C. Several sci-entists support a 10 to 15-cm rise in the sealevel (global average) during the last ca.150years (48). Rising temperature nd sealevel are suggested effects of increasinggreenhouse gas concentrations n the at-

mosphere. What effects might such a risein mean temperature bring o the environ-mental future?

The effects of this increase are not yetclearly understood or stated, but manyfear a spread of the desert climate up toGaia's ancient stronghold-the Mediter-ranean 49). A possibly warmer climate nthe Northern Hemisphere might have itsprice in, e.g. less agreeable desert winds,like the scourge of Italy and France, themalign scirocco. This is an unpleasantpossibility to be contemplated alongsidevisions of Scandinavian paprika fields orvineyards, both phenomena are the pos-sible results of major climate change (50).Poseidon, grandson of Gaia, impersonat-ing the roaring sea might feel his powerswelling. An expected rise of the high-wa-ter level by about half a meter wouldchange he contours of maps considerably.It is interesting n this connection to citeMansour Khalid, vice president of theBrundtland Commission: At the pres-entation of the results of the commissionconcerning pollution and ruthless exploi-tion of Nature, the President of the Maldi-vian Islands was personally present. Hiscountry will be the first to sink into theocean (51).

Going back to our preconceived opin-ions, how would a benign Nature react, ifemissions of, e.g. greenhouse gases wererestricted? (Fig. 7). A benign Naturewould slow down, a bit delayed, but soonthe old equilibrium tate would rule again.The desert climate would return to itsplace of origin and the president of Mal-divia, having hus been properly nformed,can choose to raise world opinion or leavethe islands n time, with his people, cher-ishing the wishful expectations of a poss-ible return.

Acting as an unpredictable practicaljoker, Nature might perform conjuringtricks with our opinion of the physicalworld (Fig. 8). The current accumulating

heat from the Indian Ocean is providingthe Scandinavian ountries with a warmerclimate than that of Canada on the oppo-site side of the North Atlantic, where thecurrent turns into a deep-ocean saline

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stream. If this current, as a result of theincreasing greenhouse effects on the seasurface, chooses to turn further south forinstance, the effect on the Scandinavianclimate might be a cooling, not warming(52). Clearly, facing this not impossibleenvironmental future, we must not betrapped in a conception that currents nowfollowing certain stabilized trajectories inthe atmosphere and the ocean cannot, orwill not take other possible routes. We

might also note that some scenarios for thefuture sea level do not rule out the possi-bility of a drop in sea level (53). A sur-prised and surprising Nature might notreact according to rules assumed by man-kind. Clearly, unpredictability and the po-tentially high rate of change create futurescenarios where there are not likely to beany winners at all on a climatically chang-ing Earth.

SAFE-FAIL NSTEAD OF FAIL-SAFEThe environmental history already writtenpoints to the fact that before relying mere-

ly upon technological, scientific or eco-nomical early warning ystems, we shouldanalyze our underlying perceptions of Na-ture so that adequate technology be im-plemented. It is rather n our own attitudestowards Nature that the basic means ofeffective and early warnings are to besought.

At present, we seem to follow a tenden-cy to establish what we suppose shouldbecome infallible ecological systems, a

fail-safe strategy. This strategy, and vari-ants thereof that imitate Nature appearto rely on Nature as a well-known andtrustworthy ollaborator. But if essentialknowledge s lacking this is likely to be astrategy inviting unpleasant future sur-prises. Modern large-scale agriculture sseeminglybased on the idea of a complete-ly tamed Nature. Otherwise t is hard toexplain the obviously deeply felt surpriseeach time some new parasite consumes oatfields or potato crops, despite carefully ap-plied insecticides. But, Nature in the dis-guise of armies of lice or locusts, for in-stance, may react with strategies or com-

ponents that we cannot foresee.The mythological greek Titan and ben-

efactor of mankind, Prometheus, a nameactually meaning he-who-thinks-beforeor he-who-possesses-forethought maysymbolize here all the sound erudition ofhuman technology (54). Prometheuswould strive to create a safe-fail system(55). The main point should be that if sucha system fails, it will fail as kindly as pos-sible, with a soft landing, and with man-

ageable results. Examples n this directioncan be gathered from, e.g. different agri-cultural strategies originally invented bypeople living in marginal areas. The Hopiindians iving n barren parts of northeast-ern Arizona nvented a farming echniqueenabling hem to make their iving or gen-erations n a very dry area (56). This exam-ple of some principles involved in astrategy for achieving sustainability romlimited natural resources is well in linewith such safe-fail behavior. Ancient peo-ple in mining areas seem to have plantedrapid-growing pecies around the mines.The first years the trees were protected

References and Notes1. Cf e.g. Bateson, G. 1980. Mind and Nature. A

Necessary Unity. Fortana/Collins. Porty, R. 1980.Philosophy and The Mirror of Nature. PrincetonUniv. Press, 343 p. This thinking is traceable to theperiod in human history when a division of bodyand soul arose and the soul was conceived as themost noble, the most true and godlike aspect ofhuman nature. Plato (427-347 BC) was the first topresent such thinking in more detail. This dualisticconception swelled to a cosmology and was one ofthe leading theories by the end of the Hellenisticepoch. At that time it entered into the teachings ofmany early fathers of the Christian Church andwas thus conserved by Western thought. Psychemeant breath in older Greek and was used first-ly by Pindar and Plato in the more extensive mean-ing of spirit, mind . A large conference held inHannover in the spring of 1988 attracted manyrenowned scientists such as Ilya Prigogine, HansDurr, Karl Popper and Albert von Weizsacker.The theme of the conference: Mind and Nature,further emphasizes the importance of finding newfruitful attitudes towards Nature for the sake ofMan's survival on Earth. A way to achieve suchchanged attitudes must be sought in, among otherthings, an integration of these two concepts in a socalled holistic approach. Geist und Natur.Welt und Wirklichkeit im Wandel der Erfarung.Offentlicher Internationaler Kongress. StiftungNidersachsen. Hannover May 21-25, 1988. Sym-posium participation was made possible by a spe-cial grant from the Department of Environmentaland Energy Systems Studies and the UniversityBoard, Lund University.

2. For instance White, L. Jr. 1967. The Ancient rootsto our ecological crisis. Science 155. The perspec-tives expressed in White's article penetrated deep-ly into the views of the contempory ecologists. Hissuggestion of a new orientation in Westernthought, personified in St. Francis, resulted in thecreation 1980 by the Pope of this little brother ofGod as the Patron of Ecology . See alsoTimmermann, P. Mythology and surprise in thesustainable development of the biosphere. In Sus-tainable Development of the Biosphere. Clark,W.C. and Munn, R.E. (eds.). IIASA. CambridgeUniversity Press, p. 435-454.

3. Conant, J.B. 1981. A skeptical chemist looks intothe crystal ball. Chem. Eng. News 29, 3847-3849.Short and cut quoting as used here is naturally notquite fair to the original text. However, the pur-pose is to show the overall positive attitude to-wards the future, such as implied by Conant, andnot to summarize the full contents of his article.

4. World Resources Institute. 1987. Annual Report.Sustaining Global Resources.

5. Marsh, G.P. 1987. The Earth as Modified by Hu-man Action. (A new edition of Man and Nature.London 1874). I know no more important practi-cal

lessons in this earthly life of ours .. . than thoserelating to the employment of the sense of vision inthe study of nature . p. 13.

6. Plato. Critias III a-d.7. Delano Smith, C. 1979. Western Mediterranean

Europe. A Historical Geography of Italy, Spainand Southern France Since the Neolithic, Gives asummary of these discussions p. 317-325. See alsoMeiggs, R. 1982. Trees and T imber in the AncientMediterranean World. Oxford, p. 371; and vanAndel, T., Runnels, C.N. and Pope, K.O. 1986.Five thousand years of land use and abuse in thesouthern Argolid, Greece. Hesperia 55.

8. Holling, S. (ed.). 1980. Environmental Assessmentand Management. International Series on AppliedSystems Analysis. IIASA, Wiley and Sons, p. 9.

9. The controversy of this question is touched uponby Burkert, W. 1985. Greek Religion. Archaic andClassic. Basil Blackwell, London, p. 11; and morespecifically by Cantarella, E. 1983. Pandora'sDaughters. Johns Hopkins Univ. Press, Baltimore,p. 11-19.

10. Commonly the Mary-worship in the WesternChurch is seen, iconographically at least, as a re-miniscence from the Mother-goddesses (esp. Isis)en vogue in the Roman Empire.

11. Hesiod. 1966. Theogony. Edited with Prolegome-na and Commentary by M.L. West, Oxford Uni-versity Press, Oxford.

12. Andersen, L. 1976. Nogle Forudsaetninger forHesiods Theogoni. Museum Tusculanum 27. (InDanish, with a summary in English). 1987. Bur-kert, W. 1987. Oriental and Greek mythology:The meeting of parallels. In Interpretations ofGreek Mythology. Bremmer, J. (ed.). N.J. Barnes& Nobel Books, Totowa.

13. Thulin, C.O. 1906. Die Etruskische Disciplin.Goteborgs Hogskolas Arsskrift, V. Goteborg.Pfiffig, A.J. 1975. Religio Etrusca. AkademischeDruck-u, Verlagsanstalt, Graz-Austria.

14. Cf. for instance this passage: We are the absolutemasters of what the earth produces. We enjoy themountains and the plains. The rivers are ours. Wesow the seed, and plant the trees. We fertilize theearth... We stop, direct, and turn the rivers: inshort by our hands we endeavour, by our variousoperations in this world, to make, as it were,another Nature ; Cicero, Nature of Gods ii 60:30-67. An introductory discussion about ancientattitudes toward Nature is found in Hughes, J.D.1967. Ecology in Ancient Civilizations. Univ. ofNew Mexico Press, Albuquerque.

15. Fragment no. 12 (Dielz-Kranz). 1967. For discus-sion on preserved fragments see Marcovich, M.Heraclitus, Los Andes University Press, Ven-ezuela.

16. According to Lovejoy, a concept called the greatchain of being was traceable to Plato and Aristot-le through Plotinus. This concept implies a princi-ple of continuity of the creation much in the sameway as a chain where each link combines the pre-ceeding and forthcoming moments. Lovejoy, A.O.

1973. The Great Chain of Being. A Study of theHistory of an Idea. Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, Mass.

17. Russel, B. 1961. History of Western Philosophy.Allen and Unwin, London, p. 57-65.

18. Kirk, G.S. 1962. Heraclitus. The Cosmic Frag-ments. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p.370.

19. Prof. Prigogine. . ., observing that science is com-plex and probabilistic where the notions of irrever-sibility randomness and bifurcation are profoundlyaltering hitherto unchallenged concepts. .Prigogine, I. 1986. Science, civilization and demo-cracy. Values, systems, structures and affinities.Futures, p. 493.

20. Holling, C.S. 1987. Simplifying the complex: Theparadigms of ecological function and structure.Eur. J. Operat, Res. 30, 139-146.

21. Asplund, J. 1979. Teorier om Framtiden, LiberForlag, Stockholm, p. 206. The original latin quo-tation has been attributed to Maxentius from Ty-ros in his Dialoghi 15,4, 125-185. (Bendz-Guter-man Hobein PWM 2555).

22. Cf. e.g. Holling, C.S. 1987. The resilience ofterrestrial ecosystems: local surprise and globalchange ; and Timmerman, P. in W.E. C lark andR.E. Munn 1987 (cf note 2).

23. Curator Roy Danielsson, Department of Zoology,University of Lund, kindly supplied the latinnames of these and other species named in thearticle.

24. Dagens Nyheter, June 17, 1988.25. An article in Ambio 17, 289-290: Rosenberg, R.,

Lindahl, 0. and Blanck, H. Silent spring in thesea, mentions several possible causes for this algalbloom, eutrophication, . . . climate, micronut-rients (e.g. cobalt) and even toxic com-pounds. .. .

26. Carson, R. 1962. Silent Spring. Hamish Hamilton,London. Cf. also, Sullivan, S. 1987. Nature's re-venge. If you don't like the world's climate today,wait till you see the 21st century. Newsweek,March 2, 1987. Sullivan's article is written withconscious alarmism. The impact of Silent Springhas been tremendous, compare e.g. the title of therapport of the algal bloom: Silent Spring in the Sea(cf. note 25).

27. Plato recounted the tale of Atlantis-a well-or-dered and prosperous continent-until the king,driven by greed, tried to conquer Athens too, thenthe gods punished him by letting the continent sinkinto the ocean. This myth has had a revival inmodern times with the discovery of Akrotiri on thesoutheastern part of Thera, a Greek equivalent toPompeii, buried in ashes when the volcano thatwas Thera exploded, leaving only a mere contourof the originally circular island.

28. In this connection it is illuminating to draw atten-tion to reports on swarms of grasshoppers invadingthe Caribbean Islands from Africa, in Swedishnewspapers (among others Svenska Dagbladet23rd of October 1988). The grasshoppers were

blown over the ocean by means of an unusuallypowerful hurricane called Joan . Such accumula-tions of extreme events are thought to appear as

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from grazing animals, but when the treeswere large enough animals had excellentfood both from their leaves and from thegrass growing beneath. The 21st year theforest was felled to secure wood for min-ing, the area was burned and some cropwas planted. Next year another plantationof trees was made and so forth (57). Thisexample hints at revitalizing or designingmultiple-use agroforestry ystems, whoseCO2 sinking capacity should not be over-

looked, for safe-fail strategies of today.Many achievements of modern technol-ogy have been made in environmentalproblem solutions of which Prometheuswould have approved. Nevertheless, hisunfortunate brother, Epimetheus, he-who-thinks-afterwards , till seems tohave command over large parts of ourtechnological strategies (Fig. 9). Epime-theus would be likely to choose ThirdWorld nations as deposits for his industrialwaste. Furthermore, he would insist onliving on a benign Earth, one that wouldindependently be expected to correct mis-takes of any scale.

EYESAND EARS ARE POORWITNESSES FOR MEN FTHEIRSOULS DO NOT UNDERSTAND HELANGUAGE 58) .It might hus be a primary ask of mankindto change attitudes in directions thatwould entail that Nature be treated as anintegrated part in a dialogue. New riskphilosophies, even scientific tyles, have tobe designed. One possible means ofachieving this is to restrict further pollu-tion as drastically as would be possiblewithout jeopardizing undamental ocietalgoals. Because one main task now seemsto be to gain time for basic research on theoperational modes of various ecologicalsystems, and our perceptions of these sys-tems. A serious dialogue s one that takesplace when the signs of disruptions ofstabilizing properties are analyzed n orderto look for alternative strategies. What isneeded is a continuously repeated recon-sideration and adaptation o our environ-ment based on the knowledge hat no nat-ural system s static, neither when exposedto pollution nor under natural conditions.

Very likely, ethical perspectives such asthose implied in the now familiar thinkglobally-act locally attitude will have togain ground and practical mplementation.

The deep roots of current perceptions nancient hinking may also serve as inspira-tions in our creation of environmental u-tures; . . . man is beginning to discernmore clearly what wise men of all ageshave intuitively felt-his essential unitywith the Universe .. To say with the greatStoic-O Universe, whatsoever s in har-mony with thee, is in harmony with me.The being whose will is so adjusted s For-tune's favorite; all things must bend to hiswill as they bend to Nature's aw. For hiswill is Nature's aw (33).

As we are indeed parts of Nature, a truewarning system, enabling sustainable en-vironmental futures and not questioninghumanistic principles, could then perhapsbe found when listening inwards intoourselves, much in the same way as So-crates constantly istened to his inner voi-ce-his daimonion (59). Perhaps this iswhere a new dialogue can begin (Fig. 10).

forebodings of major climate change, cf. note 43.29. Herodotus. History book 111:108.30. Lovelock, J.E. 1979. Gaia. A New Look at Life on

Earth. Oxford University Press, Oxford, and, TheAges of Gaia. A Biography of Our Living Earth.W.W. Norton & Co. New York, 1988.

31. Charlson, R.J., Lovelock, J.E., Andreae, M.O.and Warren, S.G. Oceanic phytoplankton, atmos-pheric sulphur, cloud albedo and climate. Nature326, 655-661.

32. Lovelock is generous with his definition of a stableclimate. Cores taken from the Antarctic glacierdemonstrate oscillations in Earth's temperaturesranging about ? 6?C. However, the fact remains,since life still exists the temperature has been suit-able for life.

33. No system can understand itself cf. Lotka's max-imum principle in Lotka, A.J. 1956. Elements ofMathematical Biology. Dover Publications, NewYork.

34. Barrie, L.A., Botenheim, J.W., Schnell, R.C.,Crutzen, P.J. and Rassmussen, R.A. 1988. Ozonedestruction and photochemical reactions at polarsunrise in the lower arctic atmosphere. Nature 334,July.

35. Schneider, S.H. 1986. A Goddess of the Earth?:The debate on the Gaia hypothesis-an editorial.Climatic Change 8, 1-4. According to T. Kuhn,such effects of new hypotheses are detectable inmost scientific work, Kuhn, T.S. 1962. The Struc-ture of Scientific Revolutions. University ofChicago.

36. Pimm, S.T. 1984. The complexity and stability ofecosystems. Nature 307, 321-325, and Holling,C.S. (cf. note 2) and Wiman, B. and Holst, J.1982. Teoretisk Ekologi. Om Stabilisering ochForanderlighet i Ekologiska System. Naturresurs-och Miljokommitten, Bakgrundsrapport 11,Stockholm. (In Swedish).

37. Support for this theory might be sought in variousreserve-systems provided by, e.g. ecological sys-

tems in random areas. The small Branchipus livingin salty puddles in the old world deserts are pro-ducing eggs that can survive for up to a hundredyears awaiting the next rainfall, or the globallyspread Artemisia salina with abilities to live andreproduce in both fresh and extremely saline wa-ters.

38. The use of expressions like Gaia and Rheadoes not refer to any hidden teleological or an-thropomorphorizing attitude. A true she is notapprehended but a collection of mechanisms. Theexpressions are used in order to save space.

39. Crutzen, P.J. 1972. SST's-A threat to the Earth'sozone shield. Ambio 1, 41-51.

40. Farman, J.C., Gardiner, B.G. and Shanklin, J.D.1985. Large losses of total ozone in Antarcticareveal seasonal ClO,/NO, interaction. Nature 315,May.

41. Stolarski R.S., Schoeberi,M.R., McPeters, R.D.,Newman, P.A. and Alpert, J.C. 1986. Nimbus 7

satellite measurements of the springtime Antarctic

ozone decrease. Nature 322, 808-811.42. Cf. e.g. Harrar/NASA/Boston TV: The Hole in the

Sky, August 1986.43. Parry, M.L. Some implications of climatic change

for human development. Sustainable Developmentof the Biosphere. Clark, W.C. and Munn, R.E.(eds.). IIASA. Cambridge University Press, Chap-ter 14.

44. It should be noted that this is the humanist way ofstating these matters, the quantifying of thesequestions has to be undertaken by technicians andtheoretical ecologists.

45. Wiman, B. 1988. Att vidmakthdlla naturresurserna.Institutet for Framtidsstudier och Allmanna For-laget, Stockholm. (In Swedish).

46. Procopius of Caesarea. 1953. History of the WarsIV, 5-6. (Trans. H.B. Dewing) The Loeb ClassicalLibrary.

47. Stothers, R.B. 1984. Mystery cloud of AD 356.Nature 307, 344-345.

48. Bolin, B., Doos, B.R., Jager, J. and Warrick,R.A. 1986. The Greenhouse Effect, ClimaticChange, and Ecosystems. Wiley and Sons, NewYork.

49. Brouwer, F. and Falkenmark, M. 1988. Water av-ailability in Europe. IIASA-paper Presented at the8th International Synmposium on Forecasting, June12-15. Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

50. Arrhenius, E. 1987. Society's reaction to scientificinformation about greenhouse effects. Volume J inEuropean Workshop on Interrelated Bioclimaticand Land Use Changes. Noordwijerhout, TheNetherlands, October 17-21.

51. Drivhuseffekten forandrar varlden . Ny Teknik.Teknisk tidskrift 1988:3.

52. Paleoclimatic evidence points to a shutdown of theNorth Atlantic conveyor belt during glacialperiods. Such a shutdown would cool the NorthAtlantic and its adjacent lands by 6-8?C. . . Final-ly, the only feasible mechanisms scientists havecome up with to explain rapid changes in the at-mosphere's CO2 content involve modifications inthe ocean's circulation pattern and intensity.Broecker, W.S. 1987. Unpleasant surprises in thegreenhouse? Nature 328, 123-126.

53. Titus, J.G. (ed.). 1986. Effects of changes instratospheric ozone and global climate; Vol. 4: Sealevel rise. EPAIUNEP Report October 1986 (fromthe International Conference on Health and En-vironmental Effects of Ozone Modification andClimate Change), p. 19-36.

54. The implications of the Prometheus myth are dis-cussed by Dodds, E. R. 1974. The Ancient Conceptof Progress. Oxford University Press, Oxford, cap.II The Prometeus Vinctus and the Progress ofScholarship.

55. Cf. Holling, C.S. 1979. Surprises in resource andenvironmental systems. Prepared for the 4th Gen-eral Assembly, Scientific Committee on Problems

of the Environment (SCOPE), Resilience sym-posium, June 13, 1979.56. Page, J. 1985. Arid Lands. Time-Life Books B.V.,

Amsterdam.57. Fries, C. 1981. Flyktig Jord. Wahistrom & Wid-

strand, Stockholm esp. p. 108-127 (In Swedish).For ancient forestry in general see Seidensticker,A. 1886. Waldgeschichte des Alterthums. Frank-furt.

58. Heraclitus, Fragment 107.59. The inner voice, the advice of which Socrates not

always followed, but which at critical times helpedhim to avoid committing actions of folly. Apology31 c-d, Symposion 175 a-b. 220 c-d, Faidros 242 b-c, Euthydemos 272 e.

60. This paper is part of an interdisciplinary project:Cultural and techno-ecological potentials and

constraints in managing natural resources carriedout in cooperation with Bo L.B. Wiman, Dept. ofEnvironmental and Energy Systems Studies, Uni-versity of Lund and Dept. of Natural ResourcesManagement, University of Stockholm, and fi-nanced by the Swedish Council for Planning andCoordination of Research and by the FuturaFoundation. The paper is based on a lecture givenby the author at the Conference Environment88 , University of Lund, April 26, 1988. Bo Wi-man read various versions of this manuscript. Hisconstructive support and criticism are gratefullyacknowledged. Thanks for constructive help arealso due to Jerker Blomqvist and Pontus Reimers,Dept. of Classics, University of Lund and theSwedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter science re-porter Gosta Karlsson. Finally, I thank WilliamStigliani, IIASA, and one unknown referee forconstructive criticism of an earlier version of thispaper.

Ingela Wiman is at the Department ofClassics, University of Lund, Swe-den, where she is writing a thesis onthe classification of Etruscan mirrorsand their role in the Etruscan cultureand technology. She is a member ofthe International Committee for thepublishing of a Corpus SpeculorumEtruscorum. As a research associateat the Department of Environmentaland Energy System Analysis, Univer-sity of Lund, she is engaged in en-vironmental history research. Her ad-dress: Department of Classics, LundUniversity, Solvegatan 2, S-223 62Lund, Sweden.

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