Analytical Needs SEMCOG Travel Model Improvement Program Donnelly, Davidson, Binkowski & Arens...
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Transcript of Analytical Needs SEMCOG Travel Model Improvement Program Donnelly, Davidson, Binkowski & Arens...
Analytical Needs
SEMCOG Travel Model Improvement Program
Donnelly, Davidson, Binkowski & Arens 12-Dec-2011
The ideal model?
Responsive Current Attainable Agile Extensible
Needs driven
Evolutionary, compatible
Life-cycle view, incremental
Data, resources
Best practice, defensible, credible
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Outline
National issues and trends Federal requirements
Certification New Starts
Local requirements Strategic uses Tactical uses Performance measures
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Motivation for advanced models
TRB Special Report 288, “Metropolitan travel forecasting: current practice and future direction” (2007)
The committee therefore recommends development and implementation of new modeling approaches to demand forecasting that are better suited to providing reliable information for such applications as multimodal investment analyses, operational analyses, environmental assessments, evaluations of a wide range of policy alternatives, toll-facility revenue forecasts, and freight forecasts, and to meeting federal and state regulatory requirements.
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Federal requirements
Model certification (FHWA) Inventory of current transportation system Key assumptions driving forecasts Model descriptions
New Starts (FTA) Asymptomatic standard practice model Internal consistency Robust mode choice model Transit path-building and assignment Standardized reporting (SUMMIT)
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Local requirements
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Modeling “strategic shrinking”
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Growing regions Shrinking regions
Where to build capacity What capacity to save
Network expansion Operations and maintenance
Population and employment growth
Jobs retention
Who benefits Who is impacted
Equity implications Equity implications
Cursory cost-benefit analysis Rigorous cost-benefit analysis
Large projects Synergies of small projects
Congestion (unreliable networks) Congestion (aging networks)
Improving transit accessibility Improving transit accessibility
Cost-effective resource allocation Cost-effective resource allocation
Broad brush Fine brush
Performance measures
Transportation-related measures:Infrastructure utilization ratesPeak service, demand, and total consumptionTransit ridershipPercentage of time in compliance with AQ standards
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Requirements recommendations
Best practice (E7+) model Best practice (E7+) model
Activity-based model
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