Analysts’ Tour – May 24 , 2011 U.S. South · Analysts’ Tour – May 24th, 2011 ... Source:...

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Analysts’ Tour – May 24 th , 2011 U.S. South

Transcript of Analysts’ Tour – May 24 , 2011 U.S. South · Analysts’ Tour – May 24th, 2011 ... Source:...

Page 1: Analysts’ Tour – May 24 , 2011 U.S. South · Analysts’ Tour – May 24th, 2011 ... Source: USDA; Butler and Wear 2010. 17 17 Timber Supply ... Positive growth/drain ratio Timber

Analysts’ Tour – May 24th, 2011

U.S. South

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Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are statements that are not historicalfacts, and as a result are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated in or suggested by the forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are intended to provide reasonable guidance to you but the accuracy of these statements depends on a number of assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties and actual outcomes and results may differ materially from those anticipated or projected. These include, but are not limited to, uncertainties associated with the effect of general economic conditions, particularly in the United States, demand for the Company’s products, foreign exchange rate fluctuations and in particular the relative values of the Canadian and U.S. dollars, potential trade sanctions, the availability and cost of fibre, competition, operational curtailments, transportation limitations, natural disasters, insect infestation, the effects of forestry, land use, environmental and other government laws and regulations, First Nation’s claims and the ability of the Company to execute its business plans.

All forward-looking statements made during this presentation, including those in the written materials, are qualified by these cautionary statements. Those attending this presentation or subsequently viewing or listening to it should not place undue reliance on the forward-looking statements, which reflect Management’s plans, estimates, projections and views only as of the date hereof. The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly revise these forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required by law.

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Welcome to the South

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US South Growth

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

BB

F

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

� Purchase Joyce & Huttig from Plum Creek (2000)

� Acquisition of thirteen IP sawmills (2007)

� Curtailments (2008/09)

� 3 mills indefinitely curtailed

� Current capacity of 2 BBF

� Q1 2011 – 76% of capacity

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Mill Locations

Huttig

Commercial SYP species rangePine > 80% Pine = 50%

Pine = 30% Pine < 10%

Leola

MEMPHIS

ATLANTA

RICHMOND

JACKSONVILLE

NEW ORLEANS

New Boston

Henderson

Joyce

Citronelle McDavid

Maplesville Opelika

Folkston

Whitehouse

Augusta

Newberry

Armour

Seaboard

(indefinite shut) (indefinite shut)

(indefinite shut)

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SYP Producer Capacity

Independents53%

Weyerhaeuser 12%

West Fraser 11%

Georgia Pacific10%

Temple-Inland6%

Gilman3%

Canfor3%

Anthony Group2%

Source: FEA

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SYP Markets

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Lumber – End Use (Average 2007-2010)

SYP

R&R 43%

Industrial 21%

New Residential

29%

Non Residential

7%

SPF

Industrial 21%

R&R37%

New Residential

39%

Non Residential

3%

Source: FEA

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99

End Use

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1010

SYP Segments

� Treated� Traditional

� Big Box

�Retail

�Pro Yard

�Co-Op

� Traditional

� Industrial

� Truss

�Export

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1111

U.S. Housing Starts by Region

Northeast

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9

North Central

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9

South

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9

West

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9

Source: FEA

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

Northeast North Central South West

Share of US Population by Census Region

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� Near term� Tough pricing environment

� SYP supply / demand balance

� Wide dimension

� Texas

� Export

� Longer term � Positive as housing recovers

Market Outlook

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Timber Supply

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U.S. South Timberland Ownership

2007 Public, 12%

Private Corp., 28%Private

Non-Corp., 60%

Timber is moving into Private/Corp. category through REITS

2002 Public, 10%

Private Corp., 18%

Private Non-Corp.,

72%

Source: FEA

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Corporate Ownership of Forest land by Ownership Class

Source: USDA; Butler and Wear 2010

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Timber Supply

� Sourcing Strategy � Long Term Agreements 20 – 25%

� Negotiated Gate Wood 10 – 20%

� Tract Specific Agreements 25 – 35%

� Timber Deeds <5%

� Open Gate Wood 15 – 35%

� Varies by Mill and Location depending on regional Land Ownership & Supplier Force

Note: Percent based on “Normal” operating schedule.

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Supply Availability

US South Total SYP Log Supply 2001 - 2015

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Bill

ions

Cub

ic F

eet

Removals Growth Accumulated Surplus

FEA: US South Privately-Owned Available Softwood Growing Stock Inventory

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Biomass & Energy Projects

� Opportunity

� Increase demand for residuals

� Non traditional market independent of Housing

� Supplier Work Force

� Incidental log supply

� Challenges

� Increase Competition for wood supply

� Impact on Supplier & Loggers

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2020

� Near term� Impact of downturn on Supplier / logging force

� Stumpage expectations

� Operating cost increase

� Continue flattening of price curve

� Longer term� Decreased competition in many drains

� Change in land ownership patterns

� Positive growth/drain ratio

Timber Outlook

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Projected Price / Supply Dynamics

Volume

Pric

e

historical projected

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Summary

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Competitiveness

Net Mill Return

150

200

250

300

350

400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$/M

fbm

US South US$ BC Interior US$

Source: FEA

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Competitiveness

Delivered Wood

100120140

160180200220240

260280

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$/M

fbm

US South US$ BC Interior US$ BC Interior Par exchange

Source: FEA

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Competitiveness

Ebitda

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

$/M

fbm

US South US$ BC Interior US$

Source: FEA

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US South Lumber Production

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

MMfbm

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Million

Capacity US Housing Starts ®Source: FEA/RISI

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Share of North American Production

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

US South US West Coast US Other British Columbia East of the Rockies

Source: FEA

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Update - 2007 to Current

� WF manufacturing culture

� Good progress in operating metrics

� Synergies exceeded expectations

� Capital

� on hold due to downturn

� backlog of projects

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Priorities

� WF culture

� Cost

� Manufacturing focus

� Capital to improve competitiveness

� Prioritization

� Project management

� Re-grow capacity

� People development and succession

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Summary

� Proximity to market

� Demographics support demand

� Growing log supply

� Investment opportunities

� Diversification

� Pine Beetle

� FX

� Trade

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Questions?