Analysis and Interpretation - NEW NEW

7/24/2019 Analysis and Interpretation - NEW NEW

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/analysis-and-interpretation-new-new 1/19

Performance of FII Activity over the period of 2004-2013:

year

Gross

purchase(cr

Gross

sa!es(cr

"et

Investments(cr

2004 185672 146706.8 38965.2

2005 286021.4 238840.9 47180.52006 475624.9 439084.1 36540.8

2007 814877.9 743392 71485.9

2008 721607 774594.3 -52987.3

2009 624239.7 540814.7 83425

2010 766283.2 633017.1 133266.1

2011 611055.6 613770.8 -2715.2

2012 669184.4 540823.9 128360.5

2013 794231.7 681264.7 112967#ota! $%4&'%'& $3$230%3 $%)4&&$

*hart:

FII Investments

FII Investments

Interpretation:

From the above table we can find Performance of F !ctivit" over the #eriod of 2004-2013.

From 2004 to 2013 we can ob$erve that increa$ed the %ro$$ #&rcha$e$ and the %ro$$ $ale$ in

increa$ed when we com#are to inve$tment$ on %ro$$ #&rcha$e$. 'hi$ i$ ver" #o$$ible im#act of $ale$ on %ro$$ #&rcha$e$.



Performance of +, over the period of 2004 to 2013:

*hart:

BSE Sensex

BSE Sensex

Interpretation:

From the above table we can find Performance of ()* over the #eriod of 2004 to 2013. From

2004 to 2013 we can ob$erve that increa$ed the "ear to "ear. +n 2007 we can ob$erve more 47,

chan%e in ($e on 2013 there wa$ a bi% chan%e in the $en$e a$ 21/170.68.

year

openin.

price c!osin. price

/*han.e

2003 3383.85 5838.96 -

2004 5872.48 6602.69 0.1307992005 6626.49 9397.93 0.423349

2006 9422.49 13786.91 0.467016

2007 13827.77 20286.99 0.471468

2008 20325.27 9647.31 -0.52446

2009 9720.55 17464.81 0.81033

2010 17473.45 20509.09 0.174309

2011 20621.61 15454.92 -0.24644

2012 15534.67 19426.71 0.256992

2013 19513.45 21170.68 0.089772



F!uctuations for +, *!osin. prices over the period 2004-2013:

ear +,*!osin. prices F!uctuation

2003 5838.96 -

2004 6602.69 763.73

2005 9397.93 2795.24

2006 13786.91 4388.98

2007 20286.99 6500.08

2008 9647.31 -10639.7

2009 17464.81 7817.5

2010 20509.09 3044.282011 15454.92 -5054.17

2012 19426.71 3971.79

2013 21170.68 1743.97

*hart:

BSE Senesx Closing Prices

uctuation

Interpretation:

From the above table we can find F!uctuations for +, *!osin. prices over the period 2004-

2013. From 2004 to 2013 we can ob$erve that increa$ed the "ear to "ear. +n 2009 we can

ob$erve more fl&ct&ation$ 7817.5 from 2004 to 2013 and al$o 'here wa$ a bi% chan%e in the

$en$e a$ 6500 in 2007.



F!uctuations for ", *!osin. prices over the period 2004-2013:

year

,9P *"6 "ifty

*!osin. prices

F!uctuation

2003 1879.7 -

2004 2080.5 200.8

2005 2836.55 756.05

2006 3966.4 1129.85

2007 6138.6 2172.2

2008 2959.15 -3179.45

2009 5201.05 2241.9

2010 6134.5 933.45

2011 4624.3 -1510.2

2012 5905.11280.8

2013 6304 398.9

*hart:

NSE Closing price

F!uctuation



Interpretation:

From the above table we can find F!uctuations for ",* *!osin. prices over the period 2004-

2013. From 2004 to 2013 we can ob$erve that increa$ed the "ear to "ear. +n 2009 we can

ob$erve more fl&ct&ation$ 2241.9 from 2004 to 2013 and al$o 'here wa$ a bi% chan%e in the

$en$e a$ 2172.2 in 2007.

e!ationship eteen ", and FII Activity over the period of 2004-2013:

year

6

",

f!uctuation

s

FII "et

Investments 6 672 72

2004 200.8 38965.2 7824212.16 40320.64 1518286811

2005 756.05 47180.5 35670817.03 571611.6025 2225999580

2006 1129.85 36540.8 41285622.88 1276561.023 1335230065

2007 2172.2 71485.9 155281672 4718452.84 5110233899

2008 -3179.5 -52987.3 168470471 10108902.3 2807653961

2009 2241.9 83425 187030507.5 5026115.61 6959730625

2010 933.45 133266.1 124397241 871328.9025 17759853409

2011 -1510.2 -2715.2 4100495.04 2280704.04 7372311.04

2012 1280.8 128360.5 164404128.4 1640448.64 16476417960

2013 398.9 112967 45062536.3 159121.21 12761543089

44243 $%)4&&$ %33$2''033 2))%3$))&1 ))%)2321'11

r0.76001"7#

Interpretation:

From the above table we can find the )* Fl&ct&ation$ and F nve$tment$ with the relation

$tren%th of the both correlation.. 'he fl&ct&ation$ of the () from 2004 to 2013. +n the "ear of

2007 )* more fl&ct&ated b&t the F net inve$tment$ are not at *ffective b&t in 2010 )*

Fl&ct&ation i$ 933.45 b&t thi$ "ear F et inve$tment$ are ver" hi%h end..



e!ationship eteen FIIs Purchase and FIIs sa!es on moments of ,",6 for the ear

2010-2011:

;onth +se

FII

Purchases

FII

,a!es

FII

"et +se (/

FII Purchases

(/

FII

,a!es (/

arch

17527.7

7 59692.57

44900.2

4

14792.3

3 - - -

!#ril

17558.7

1 55061.05

52393.6

8 2667.37

0.00176519

9 -0.077589556 0.16689087

a"16944.6

3 49588.0461659.1

6 -12071.1 -0.03497296 -0.09939894 0.17684347

&ne 17700.9 51878.01

44164.0

6 7713.95

0.04463183

9 0.046179885 -0.2837389

&l"17868.2

9 52571.2144030.1

5 8541.060.00945658

1 0.013362116 -0.0030321

!&%&$t

17971.1

2 56120.24

48582.9

4 7537.3

0.00575488

8 0.067509004 0.10340165

)e#tember

20069.1

2 74920.16

52444.5

2

22475.6

4 0.116742863 0.334993578 0.07948428

+ctober

20032.3

4 77706.1

63318.0

4

14388.0

6 -0.00183267 0.037185452 0.20733377

ovember

19521.2

5 79726.26

74375.3

9 5350.87 -0.02551325 0.025997444 0.17463191

ecember

20509.0

9 52683.49

53405.6

8 -722.19

0.05060331

7 -0.339195266 -0.2819442

an&ar"18327.7

6 57526.0766429.6

7 -8903.6 -0.10635918 0.09191836 0.243869

Febr&ar" 17823.4 57097.91 64311.3 -7213.39 -0.02751891 -0.007442886 -0.0318889

arch

19445.2

2 52192.02

44215.1

3 7976.89

0.09099386

2 -0.085920658 -0.3124827

*orre!ation 00%41'42%$ -0)213&2'

*hart:



BSE $ c%an&e

FII 'u(c%ases)$*

FII Sa!es)$*

Interpretation:

• Interpretation : above table and chart indicatin% vol&me$ of Forei%n n$tit&tional nve$tor$ for

the "ear 2010-2011. t$ clearl" $howin% $en$e $hown 60, %rowth. !nd we can $ee1500 #oint$

variation toward$ b&lli$h one. +ther than &ne 2010 and a" 2010 remainin% month$ #&rch$e$

are increa$ed than $ale$. :hen con$iderin% mar;et information b" vario&$ anal"$t$ / )en$e

$how$ #o$itive im#act when F<) #&rcha$e$ increa$ed/ b&t it$ not onl" the factor for the %rowth

of ,",6 for thi$ #artic&lar #eriod.

• !bove %ra#h indicatin% correlation between #&rcha$e$ of F=$/ $ale$ of F=$ and moment$ of

,",6. :e can $ee abnormal fl&ct&ation$ in #&rcha$e$ and $ale$ b&t not in )en$e/ beca&$e

)en$e #erformance not onl" de#end$ on F<) / there are $o man" factor$ li;e >P >rowth/

nflation/ m#act of international mar;et$/ im#act of financial re$&lt$ and #olitical im#act. am

concl&din% )en$e #erformance for thi$ "ear $table.




2011-2012:

;onth +,

FII

purchases

FII

,a!es

FII

"et +, /

FII Purchases

(/

FII

,a!es (/

arch 19/445.22 52192.02

44215.1

3 7976.89 - - -

!#ril 19/135.96 49090.25

49085.8

5 4.4 -0.0159 -0.059429966 0.11015958

a" 18/503.28 53777.46

57482.8

3 -3705.37 -0.03306 0.095481486 0.17106722

&ne 18/845.87 53473.22

50810.4

6 2662.76

0.01851

5 -0.005657389 -0.1160759

&l" 18/197.20 50802.29

46520.7

9 4281.5 -0.03442 -0.049948928 -0.0844249

!&%&$t 16/676.75 45395.78

56954.9

8 -11559.2 -0.08355 -0.106422565 0.2242909

)e#tember 16/453.76 50283.6453372.5

1 -3088.87 -0.01337 0.107672123 -0.0629

+ctober 17/705.01 44233.02

42390.5

5 1842.47

0.07604

6 -0.120329793 -0.2057606

ovember 16/123.46 43094.11

49602.8

2 -6508.71 -0.08933 -0.025747959 0.17013863

ecember 15/454.92 38711.73

41098.8

7 -2387.14 -0.04146 -0.101693248 -0.1714409

an&ar" 17/193.55 52903.37

43434.2

3 9469.14 0.112497 0.366597928 0.05682297

Febr&ar" 17/752.68 76648.78 53412.4

23236.3

8 0.03252 0.448844941 0.22973056

arch 17/404.20 63999.11

57472.3

8 6526.73 -0.01963 -0.165034199 0.07601194

*orre!ation 0$214222'& -0323$')1

*hart:



BSE $

FII 'u(c%ases)$*

FII Sa!es)$*

Interpretation ? !bove table and chart indicatin% vol&me$ of Forei%n n$tit&tional nve$tor$ for

the "ear 2011-2012. n the month of &ne net $ale$ increa$ed 60/000 crore$ / the im#act we can

$ee in the $ame month/ that nift" fall 400 #l&$ #oint$. From &l" 2011 to )e# 2011/ F<$

#&rcha$e$ increa$ed and at the $ame time we can $ee %rowth on )en$e for the mentioned #eriod.

n the month of febr&ar" 2012 F<$ net #&rcha$e$ increa$ed b&t/ )en$e #artici#ated toward$

ne%ative in febr&ar" / when anal"in% act&al rea$on$ for thi$/ in the time of central b&det and

railwa" b&det $ome time$ mar;et fl&ct&ate$ ne%ative al$o. (&t it=$ not the act&al fact.

:hen com#are to la$t financial "ear to c&rent finacial "ear/ we can $ee onl" 300 #l&$ #oint$

%rowth in the whole "ear. n the c&rent financial "ear 2011-2012 )en$e $hown $ome ne%ative

volatalit" in be%innin% / later $tarted $hort term b&ll r&n from 19000 to 20000 #oint$ 30, %rowth

in 4 to 5 month$. (&t in final $ta%e )en$e not able to clo$e on 20000 level$. )o nift" $hown

ne%ative and #o$itive volatalit" in thi$ "ear. :hen com#are to la$t "ear #erformance / )en$e

#erformance wa$ not $ame/ thi$ i$ the rea$on all finacial in$tit&tion$ warn #a$t #erformance ma"

not be $ame in the f&t&re.




2012-2013:

;onth +,

FII

purchases

FII

,a!es FII "et +, /

FII Purchases

(/ FII ,a!es (/

arch 17404.2 63999.11 57472.38 6526.73 - - -

!#ril 17318.81 37723.69 39387.05 -1663.36 -0.00491 -0.410559147 -0.314678633a" 16218.53 46301.71 49057.97 -2756.26 -0.06353 0.227390799 0.245535525

&ne 17429.98 40956.28 38161.6 2794.68 0.074695 -0.115447788 -0.222112126

&l" 17236.18 47179.02 41276.07 5902.95 -0.01112 0.151936162 0.081612668

!&%&$t 17429.56 45533.62 37786.51 7747.11 0.011219 -0.034875671 -0.084541963

)e#tember 18762.74 68789.7 47981.89

20807.8

1 0.07649 0.510745247 0.269815339

+ctober 18505.38 52306.07 43863.14 8442.93 -0.01372 -0.239623519 -0.085839678

ovember 19339.9 43328.18 37036.67 6291.51 0.045096 -0.171641456 -0.155631129

ecember 19426.71 58290.81 43924.32

14366.4

9 0.004489 0.34533253 0.185968393

an&ar" 19894.98 74013.68 54815.819197.8

8 0.024104 0.269731541 0.247960128

Febr&ar" 18861.54 67980.27 58447.24 9533.03 -0.05194 -0.081517498 0.066248053

arch 18835.77 65561.74 56138.67 9423.07 -0.00137 -0.03557694 -0.039498358

*orre!ation 01) -01)&034004

*hart:



BSE $

FII 'u(c%ases)$*FII Sa!es)$*

Interpretation? above table and chart indicatin% vol&me$ of Forei%n n$tit&tional nve$tor$ for

the "ear 2012-2012. f "o& ob$erve$ #erformance of )en$e/ from !#ril 2012 to ecember 2012

it ha$ $hown 50, %rowth/ b&t &nable to $tand at thi$ level$. From december to an&ar" )en$e

move$ 3000 #oint$ correction/ it$ one of maor fall$ in indian $toc; mar;et. :hen anal"in%

rea$on for thi$ lot of $ellin% #re$$&re ha##en d&e to co&#le of new m&t&al f&nd$ introd&ced

which ha$ international e#o$&re/ and im#act of doller i$ al$o a rea$on to fall ' ind&$tr" for the

%iven #eriod. !nal"in% F=$ role for thi$ fall

Are Forei.n Investors esponsi!e for this crisis

FII (Forei.n Institutiona! Investors i$ &$ed to denote an inve$tor@ it i$ mo$tl" of the form of an

in$tit&tion or entit" which inve$t$ mone" in the financial mar;et$ of a co&ntr". 'he term F i$

mo$t commonl" &$ed in ndia to refer to com#anie$ that are e$tabli$hed or incor#orated o&t$ide

ndia/ and i$ inve$tin% in the financial mar;et$ of ndia. 'he$e inve$tor$ m&$t re%i$ter with the

)ec&ritie$ *chan%e (oard of ndia )*( to ta;e #art in the mar;et.



e!ationship eteen FIIs Purchase and FIIs sa!es on moments of "IF# for the ear

2010-2011:

;onth ", FIIpurchases FII ,a!es FII "et ", / FII Purchases(/ FII,a!es (/

arch 5249.1 59692.57 44900.24 14792.33 - - -

!#ril 5278 55061.05 52393.68 2667.37

0.00550

6 -0.077589556 0.166890867

a" 5086.3 49588.04 61659.16 -12071.1 -0.03632 -0.09939894 0.176843467

&ne 5312.5 51878.01 44164.06 7713.95

0.04447

2 0.046179885 -0.283738864

&l" 5367.6 52571.21 44030.15 8541.06

0.01037

2 0.013362116 -0.003032103

!&%&$t 5402.4 56120.24 48582.94 7537.3

0.00648

3 0.067509004 0.103401646

)e#tember 6029.9

5 74920.16 52444.52 22475.64 0.116161 0.334993578 0.07948428

+ctober 6017.7 77706.1 63318.04 14388.06 -0.00203 0.037185452 0.207333769

ovember 5862.7 79726.26 74375.39 5350.87 -0.02576 0.025997444 0.174631906

ecember 6134.5 52683.49 53405.68 -722.19

0.04636

1 -0.339195266 -0.281944202

an&ar" 5505.9 57526.07 66429.67 -8903.6 -0.10247 0.09191836 0.243869004

Febr&ar"

5333.2

5 57097.91 64311.3 -7213.39 -0.03136 -0.007442886 -0.031888913

arch

5833.7

5 52192.02 44215.13 7976.89

0.09384

5 -0.085920658 -0.312482721

*orre!ation 010'20&'2' -0)1244))$$

*hart:



NSE $

FII 'u(c%ases)$*

FII Sa!es)$*

Interpretation:

• Interpretation : above table and chart indicatin% vol&me$ of Forei%n n$tit&tional nve$tor$ for

the "ear 2010-2011. t$ clearl" $howin% nift" $hown 80, %rowth. !nd we can $ee 1500 #oint$

variation toward$ b&lli$h one. +ther than !#ril 2010 and a" 2011 remainin% month$ #&rch$e$

are increa$ed than $ale$. :hen con$iderin% mar;et information b" vario&$ anal"$t$ / nift" $how$

#o$itive im#act when F<) #&rcha$e$ increa$ed/ b&t it$ not onl" the factor for the %rowth of

"ifty for thi$ #artic&lar #eriod.

• !bove %ra#h indicatin% correlation between #&rcha$e$ of F=$/ $ale$ of F=$ and moment$ of

"ifty. :e can $ee abnormal fl&ct&ation$ in #&rcha$e$ and $ale$ b&t not in nift"/ beca&$e nift"

#erformance not onl" de#end$ on F<) / there are $o man" factor$ li;e >P >rowth/ nflation/

m#act of international mar;et$/ im#act of financial re$&lt$ and #olitical im#act. am concl&din%

nift" #erformance for thi$ "ear $table.




2011-2012:

;onth ",

FII

purchases

FII

,a!es FII "et ", /

FII Purchases

(/

FII ,a!es

(/

arch 5833.75 52192.02

44215.1

3 7976.89

!#ril 5749.5 49090.25

49085.8

5 4.4 -0.01444 -0.059429966 0.110159577

a" 5560.15 53777.46

57482.8

3 -3705.37 -0.03293 0.095481486 0.171067222

&ne 5647.4 53473.22

50810.4

6 2662.76

0.01569

2 -0.005657389 -0.11607588

&l" 5482 50802.29

46520.7

9 4281.5 -0.02929 -0.049948928 -0.08442494

!&%&$t 5001 45395.78

56954.9

8 -11559.2 -0.08774 -0.106422565 0.224290903

)e#tember 4943.25 50283.6453372.5

1 -3088.87 -0.01155 0.107672123 -0.06290003

+ctober 5326.6 44233.02

42390.5

5 1842.47 0.07755 -0.120329793 -0.20576061

ovember 4832.05 43094.11

49602.8

2 -6508.71 -0.09285 -0.025747959 0.170138628

ecember 4624.3 38711.73

41098.8

7 -2387.14 -0.04299 -0.101693248 -0.17144086

an&ar" 5199.25 52903.37

43434.2

3 9469.14

0.12433

2 0.366597928 0.056822973

Febr&ar" 5385.2 76648.78 53412.4 23236.38

0.03576

5 0.448844941 0.22973056

arch 5295.55 63999.11

57472.3

8 6526.73 -0.01665 -0.165034199 0.076011937

*orre!ation 0$33304$1 -0311)&3&$

*hart:



NSE $

FII 'u(c%ases)$*

FII Sa!es)$*

Interpretation ? !bove table and chart indicatin% vol&me$ of Forei%n n$tit&tional nve$tor$ for

the "ear 2011-2012. n the month of ma" net $ale$ increa$ed 60/000 crore$ / the im#act we can

$ee in the $ame month/ that nift" fall 450 #l&$ #oint$. From &ne 2011 to november 2011/ F<$

#&rcha$e$ increa$ed and at the $ame time we can $ee %rowth on nift" for the mentioned #eriod. n

the month of febr&ar" 2012 F<$ net #&rcha$e$ increa$ed b&t/ nift" #artici#ated toward$ ne%ative

in febr&ar" / when anal"in% act&al rea$on$ for thi$/ in the time of central b&det and railwa"

b&det $ome time$ mar;et fl&ct&ate$ ne%ative al$o. (&t it=$ not the act&al fact.

:hen com#are to la$t financial "ear to c&rent finacial "ear/ we can $ee onl" 450 #l&$ #oint$

%rowth in the whole "ear. n the c&rent financial "ear 2011-2012 nift" $hown $ome ne%ative

volatalit" in be%innin% / later $tarted $hort term b&ll r&n from 5000 to 6000 #oint$ 35, %rowth in

4 to 5 month$. (&t in final $ta%e nift" not able to clo$e on 5500 level$. )o nift" $hown ne%ative

and #o$itive volatalit" in thi$ "ear. :hen com#are to la$t "ear #erformance / nift" #erformance

wa$ not $ame/ thi$ i$ the rea$on all finacial in$tit&tion$ warn #a$t #erformance ma" not be $ame

in the f&t&re.




2012-2013:

;onth ",

FII

purchases

FII

,a!es FII "et ", /

FII

Purchases

(/

FII ,a!es

(/

arch

5295.5

5 63999.11 57472.38 6526.73

!#ril

5248.1

5 37723.69 39387.05 -1663.36 -0.00895 -0.41056 -0.3146786

a"

4924.2

5 46301.71 49057.97 -2756.26 -0.06172 0.227391 0.24553553

&ne 5278.9 40956.28 38161.6 2794.68 0.072021 -0.11545 -0.2221121

&l" 5229 47179.02 41276.07 5902.95 -0.00945 0.151936 0.08161267

!&%&$t 5258.5 45533.62 37786.51 7747.11 0.005642 -0.03488 -0.084542

)e#tember 5703.3 68789.7 47981.89 20807.81 0.084587 0.510745 0.26981534

+ctober 5619.7 52306.07 43863.14 8442.93 -0.01466 -0.23962 -0.0858397

ovember

5879.8

5 43328.18 37036.67 6291.51 0.046293 -0.17164 -0.1556311

ecember 5905.1 58290.81 43924.32 14366.49 0.004294 0.345333 0.18596839

an&ar"

6034.7

5 74013.68 54815.8 19197.88 0.021956 0.269732 0.24796013

Febr&ar"

5693.0

5 67980.27 58447.24 9533.03 -0.05662 -0.08152 0.06624805

arch

5682.5

5 65561.74 56138.67 9423.07 -0.00184 -0.03558 -0.0394984

*orre!atio

n 0210''' -011&&3)'

*hart:



NSE $

FII 'u(c%ases)$*FII Sa!es)$*

Interpretation? above table and chart indicatin% vol&me$ of Forei%n n$tit&tional nve$tor$ for

the "ear 2012-2013. f "o& ob$erve$ #erformance of F'A/ from !#ril 2012 to ecember 2012

it ha$ $hown 20, %rowth/ b&t &nable to $tand at thi$ level$. From december to an&ar" nift"

move$ 1000 #oint$ correction/ it$ one of maor fall$ in indian $toc; mar;et. :hen anal"in%

rea$on for thi$ lot of $ellin% #re$$&re ha##en d&e to co&#le of new m&t&al f&nd$ introd&ced

which ha$ international e#o$&re/ and im#act of doller i$ al$o a rea$on to fall ' ind&$tr" for the

%iven #eriod. !nal"in% F=$ role for thi$ fall

Are Forei.n Investors esponsi!e for this crisis

FII (Forei.n Institutiona! Investors i$ &$ed to denote an inve$tor@ it i$ mo$tl" of the form of an

in$tit&tion or entit" which inve$t$ mone" in the financial mar;et$ of a co&ntr". 'he term F i$

mo$t commonl" &$ed in ndia to refer to com#anie$ that are e$tabli$hed or incor#orated o&t$ide

ndia/ and i$ inve$tin% in the financial mar;et$ of ndia. 'he$e inve$tor$ m&$t re%i$ter with the

)ec&ritie$ *chan%e (oard of ndia )*( to ta;e #art in the mar;et.

Analysis and Interpretation - NEW NEW

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