Analisi - Cap03

8/3/2019 Analisi - Cap03

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I ndustry Analysis: The FundamentalsChapter 3

Objectives

From Environmental Analysis to Industry Analysis

Value Creation and Profitability

Determinants of Industry Profit Porters Five Forces of Competition

- Unit Costs and Economies(volume, scale, scope, learning)

Applying Industry Analysis

Boundaries of the Industry

Identifying Key Success Factors


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From Environmental Analysis toI ndustry Analysis

Natural Environment

Demographic Structure

National and International

Economy

Technology

Government and Politics

Social Structure

Potential Entrants

Industry Competitors Substitutes

Suppliers

Buyers (Customers)

Customers Suppliers Competitors

The industry environment isrooted in the macro-environment

The macro-environment affectsthe firm through its influence onthe industry environment


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Value creation and profitability:transaction betw een producers and end-users

Value is created throughtransformation:

- Production(physical transformation)

- Trade(transformation in space/time)


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Value creation and profitability:more transformation phases before final sale


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1. Value of the product to customers

2. Intensity of competition

3. Relative bargaining power at different

levels within the value chain

Determinants of Industry P rofitability


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PerfectCompetition Oligopoly Duopoly Monopoly

Concentration Many firms A few firms Two firms One firm

Entry and exitbarriers

No barriers Significant barriers High barriers

Productdifferentiation

Homogeneous

product(commodity) Potential for product differentiation

Informationavaliability

Perfectavailability Imperfect availability of information

Determinants of I ndustry Profitability:I ndustry Structure


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POTENTIALENTRANTS

INDUSTRY

COMPETITORS

Rivalry among

existing firms

SUPPLIERS

BUYERS

SUBSTITUTES

Bargaining powerof buyers

Threat ofsubstitutes

Threat ofnew

entrants

Bargaining powerof suppliers

3 horizontal forces:

Potential Entrants Industry competitors

Substitutes2 vertical forces: Suppliers Buyers

Determinants of Industry Profitability:P orter Five Forces of Competition


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INDUSTRY RIVALRY Concentration

Diversity of competitors Product differentiation Excess capacity &

exit barriers Cost conditions

THREAT OF ENTRY Capital requirements

Economies of scale Absolute cost advantage Product differentiation Access to distribution

channels Legal/regulatory barriers

Retaliation

BUYER POWER Buyers price sensitivity Relative bargaining power

Determinants of Industry Profitability:P orter Five Forces of Competition

SUPPLIER POWER Buyers price sensitivity

Relative bargaining power

SUBSTITUTECOMPETITION Buyers propensity to

substitute

Relative prices & performanceof substitutes


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Competitive pressure from producers of substitutes depends on

Buyers propensity to substitute, which in turn depends onThe price-performance characteristics of substitutes

In so far that propensity is high, and the price-performance characteristics of thesubstitutes are similar to the industry product- The greater decrease of demand may be caused by a lower price of the substitutes

- The less freedom the industry producers enjoy in setting their own market prices

If the product is complex and assessing its performance difficult, it is lesslikely that customers consider substitution on the basis of price differences

P orter Five Forces of Competition:Threat of Substitutes


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The fact that an industry shows a good rate of return on employedcapital attracts new investments from the outside.

These entries cause an increase of supply and competition, and thispushes prices and profits toward the competitive level.

The possibility for an industry to maintain high average profitabilitydepends on the existence of entry barriers that make new entriesdifficult and costly

Barriers to entry are obstacles to the entry of other firms in theindustry. They may be also regarded as advantages enjoyed by theexisting firms in the industry(e.g.: specific resources owned only by the firms that already operate in the industry,

and not easily available to new entrants).

P orter Five Forces of Competition:Threat of New Entrants


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Capital requirements

Economies of scale

Absolute cost advantages

P roduct differentiation Access to channels of distribution

Governmental and legal barriers

RetaliationHowever the effectiveness of these barriers depends on theendowment of resources of new potential entrants (size, liquidity,

brand, product range etc.)

P orter Five Forces of Competition:Threat of New Entrants and Barriers to Entry


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101

U n i t s o

f p r o

d u c t

F i x e

d ( t o t a l ) c o s t s

V a r i a

b l e c o

s t s

U n i t c o s t s

F i x e

d ( u n i t

) c o s t s

1 10 1 11.00 10.002 10 2 6.00 5.003 10 3 4.33 3.334 10 4 3.50 2.505 10 5 3.00 2.006 10 6 2.67 1.677 10 7 2.43 1.43

8 10 8 2.25 1.259 10 9 2.11 1.11

10 10 10 2.00 1.00

Fixed costsVariable (unit) cost

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Fixed Costs

Given a production capacity , when actual production fully exploits that capacity unit costs are lower,because the fixed costs of production facilities are distributed over a greater production volume (seethe red curve below).

Unit Costs and Economies:Economies of Volume


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Lower unit costs are caused by larger production capacity (for constant rate of exploitation of thatcapacity) , as a consequence of the higher efficiency of large production facilities.

In economies of volume the production capacity is given and fixed , the variable is the rate of exploitation of the capacity, the higher it is the lower is the incidence of fixed costs for product unit.

In economies of scale the production capacity itself is the variable and lower unit costs follow from:i. increase in the cost of a larger plant is less than proportional to the increase of capacityii. variable unit costs are lower; for instance, less electrical power for product unit.

The difference between economies of volumeand economies of scale is parallel to thedistinction between (unit) cost functions

- Short term ( x axis is the rate of exploitation of a given capacity)

- Long term ( x axis is the productioncapacity itself).

Unit Costs and Economies:Economies of Scale

Short term unit cost for somealternative installed capacities(increasing from left to right)

Long term unit cost

Units of output perperiod


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Lower unit costs caused by the increase of cumulated production. This is the total productionobtained since the first product was obtained, while production capacity is the production obtainableper time unit (e.g. year). The decrease of unit costs is consequence of:i. improvement of individual abilities of the workers (individual learning-by-doing)ii. improvement of organization of production (organizational learning).

In this case the production volume on the x axis- is NOT the quantity produced in a given period (a

rate, e.g. the production per year)

- but the entire production obtained across all thetime elapsed since the production of the first unit

of product (cumulated production).If we fix the rate of production (e.g. given quantityper year) we can consider the x axis as the timedimension.

2000 2001 2002 2003 200410.000 20.000 30,000 40.000 50.000

TimeCumulated production

Unit Costs and Economies:Economies of Experience or Learning


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Lower unit costs are caused by the widening of the products range . This is the effectof the increased exploitation of resources that may be employed for further productswithout additional costs. For instance:- different types of products can be sold across the same distribution facilities

(suppose they are not entirely exploited for a narrower range of products, and thatthey are not reducible)

- an already established brand can be extended over further products without

additional costs- the technical know-how developed in connection with a certain product might be

valuable also for products of different type.

Note that there may be ambiguity in labeling the types of economies. While the

distinction between volume , scale and experience is clear-cut, the distinction of economies of scope from the economies of scale or volume is sometime not sostraightforward.

It helps to consider that the economies of scope are caused by the increased variety

of the products range , while other economies are caused by the increased productionof a given product . What is common to all cases is that it is always implied a higherlevel of activity inside the firm.

Unit Costs and Economies:Economies of Scope


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Concentrationnumber of firms, size of the firms (relative to the aggregated market demand)

Diversity of competitorsfor their cost conditions, objectives, interpretation of the competitive situation

P roduct differentiationextent to which the offerings of different firms cannot be compared only on the basis of price

Excess capacity and exit barriers

Cost conditions:

economies of scale and ratio fixed costs/ variable costs

Within the industry, among the existing firmsthe nature of competition

(on price or other dimensions, such as product innovation, advertising )and its intensity, depend on

P orter Five Forces of Competition:Rivalry Betw een Established Competitors


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P orter Five Forces of Competition:Rivalry Betw een Established Competitors(role of balance betw een capacity and demand)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Return on sales Return on investment Cash flow/Investment

< -5% -5% to 0 0 to 5% 5% to 10% > 10%

ROI(%)

Annual rate of growth of market demand


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1. Buyers price sensit ivity

o Cost of purchases as % of buyers total costo Differentiation of the purchased itemo Intensity of competition between buyerso

Importance of the purchased item for the quality of the buyersown output

2. Relative bargaining pow ero Size and concentration of buyers relative to sellerso Buyers informationo Potential of backward vertical integration of buyers

P orter Five Forces of Competition:Bargaining P ow er of Buyers


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P orter Five Forces of Competition:Bargaining Pow er of Suppliers

Here the industry firms find themselves in the reversed role of buyers, but the same factors apply again. With some remarks

Raw materials, semi-finished goods and components are oftencommodities supplied by small companies to large manufacturers.

Because of this commodity suppliers often seek to enhance theirbargaining power through:

Cartelization(OPEC, International Coffee Organization ; similar is the unionization of workers)

Product differentiation

Forward vertical integration into the buyers industry


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Applying I ndustry Analysis

Describing industry structure

Forecasting industry profitability Changing industry structure


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Identify the main playersProducers, customers, suppliers, producers of substitute goods, potential entrants not always these are allimportant, at the same time it might be the case that other types of actors are important (i.e. complementors)

Examine their characteristics that determine competition andbargaining power it may be difficult !

Television programming in the USA : there are a number of different types of player and it is not simple toestablish (i) the industry boundaries and (ii) which actors are buyers and which are sellers.

i. Industry boundaries: do we consider all forms of TV distribution or indentify separate industries for broadcast TV,cable TV and satellite TV?

ii. Buyers and sellers: the industry has quite a complex value chain with the producers of the individual shows,networks that put together program schedules, and local broadcasting and cable companies that undertake finaldistribution. For the distribution companies there are two buyers: viewers and advertisers. Some comapnies arevertically integrated across several stages of the value chain thus networks such as FOX and NBC not only createand distribute program schedules, they are also backward integrated into producing some TV shows and forwardintegrated into local distribution through ownership of local TV stations.

Vertical boundaries :Which activities of the value chain to include in the industry?

Horizontal boundaries :Which products and geographical areas to include in the industry?

Applying I ndustry Analysis:Describing Industry Structure


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Industry analysis may explain the profitability of the industry in the past,however what is really important is predicting future profitability.

Strategic decisions are essentially investment decisions that commit resources toan industry for a long time. Forecasting is of critical importance.

Current or past profitability may not be a reliable index of future profitability.

1. Examine how current and recent levels of competition and profitabilityare a consequence of its present structure

2. Identify the trends that are changing the industrys structure

3. Identify how these structural changes will affect the five forces of competition and resulting profitability of the industry

Different structural changes may have different direction, some willincrease competition, some will moderate it. Establishing their net effect isa matter of judgment.

Applying I ndustry Analysis:Forecasting Industry Profitability

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Industry structure may be changed through appropriate strategicinitiatives.

1. Which are the important structural features of the industry?

2. On which is it possible to intervene, and how?Individually? Collectively through inter-firm agreements?

Steel industry :good profitability between 2002 and 2008 was result of growing demand, but also supportedby the rapid consolidation of the industry, led by Mittal Steel.

European petrochemicals :

excess capacity was a major problem. Through a series of bilateral plant exchanges, eachcompany built a leading position within a particular product area.

U.S. airline industry :frequent flyer schemes built customer loyalty in the absence of product differentiation;through hub-and-spoke route systems companies have achieved dominance of particular

airports. Mergers and alliances have reduced the number of competitors on many routes.P rofessional associations :impose barriers to entry by controlling training, and especially accreditation, of professionals.

Applying I ndustry Analysis:Changing Industry Structure

B d i f h I d


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Suppose Jaguar is assessing its future prospects. In forecasting industry profitability

Which product scope should be considered?

Segment of luxury cars (SIC 3712) automobile industry (SIC 371) motor vehicles and equipment

Which geographic scope?

National (UK) Regional (Europe) Global

Definition: Economists define an industry as a group of firms that supply a market.Is there a one-to-one correspondence between industry and market?What if the same firms supply different and heterogeneous markets? it happens!What if heterogeneous firms serve the same market? it happens!

Current usage: industry is broad definition (i.e. packaging), and may be subdividedin several markets (glass containers, metal cans, paper boxes ).

Confusing! lets try to make order

Industry : group of firmsSupply side ; based on which similarities among firms is the group identified?

Market : group of productsDemand side ; based on which similarities among products? Are these similarities in production or consumption?

Industry structure, industry analysis: referred to producers, supply side.Market structure, market analysis: types of customers, demand side.

Boundaries of the I ndustryI ndustries and Markets

B d i f h I d


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Boundaries of the I ndustryI nterdependencies betw een different products (and producers)Substitution in Demand and Supply

Interdependencies : Which actors in Jaguars economic environment may influence itsprofitability? Whose behaviors may make a difference for the attainment of its goals?

Demand-side substitution:Do Jaguar customers consider as a potential alternative the purchase of a truck, based on thecomparison of price and performance? No, producers of trucks may be excluded, even if they

produced fast and cheap trucks they would not take customers from Jaguar in the same fashionthe producers of economy cars may be excluded too.

Supply-side substitution:Are economy cars or truck producers able to convert their production to luxury cars? If yes theirbehaviors are relevant, and must be included in the analysis if conversion takes time, inclusion

or not in the industry depends on the temporal scope of the analysis, which in turn depends on theduration of the investments that are considered. The longer term are the decision that a firm isconsidering, the more broadly it will wish to consider its markets.






B d i f th I d t


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Interdependencies : If price differences for the same product between differentlocations tend to be eroded by demand-side and supply-side substitution, then theselocations lie within a single market.

Demand-side substitution:May Jaguars customers consider as an alternative the purchase of a German or Italian car

(Europe)? What about an US or Japanese car (global)? Supply-side substitution:

Are German or Italian producers able to supply the UK market? What about the US or Japanese? IsJaguar able to supply German, Italian, US or Japanese markets?

If Japanese produced luxury cars perceived by customers as an alternative to Jaguar cars, and soldthem at lower prices in the same geographical markets, then Jaguar would experience a loss of customers that would put pressure toward either (i) effectively distinguish its cars from the Japanese(differentiation); (ii) lower its cars prices (likely also by cutting costs)






Boundaries of the I ndustryI nterdependencies betw een different geographical locationsSubstitution in Demand and Supply

K S F t


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Key Success Factors

What do customers want? How to deal with competiton?

ANALYSIS OF DEMAND

o Who are our customers?o What do they want ?

ANALYSIS OF COMPETITION

o What factors drive competition?o What are the main dimensions of

competition?o How intense is competition?o How can we obtain a superior

competitive position?

KEY SUCCESS FACTORS

How to create value How to appropriate the rent

Ke S ccess Factors


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Key Success FactorsExamples of Steel, Fashion Clothing and Supermarkets(Table 3.3)

W HAT DO CUSTOMERS W ANT?(Analysis of demand)

HOW DO FIRM S SURVIVECOMPETITION?(Analysis of competition)

KEY SUCCESS FACTORS

Steel Low price Product consistency Reliability of supply Specific technical specifications

for special steels.

Strong price competition andcyclical profitability necessitatescost efficiency and strongfinancial resources

Main sources of cost efficiency include:large-scale plants, low-cost location,rapid adjustment of capacity to output.

Alternatively, hi-tech minimills canachieve low costs through flexibility andhigh productivity.

Differentiation through product andservice quality possible.

Fashionclothing

Fragmented demand(segmented by garment type,style, quality, color).

Customers willing to pay pricepremium for brand, style,exclusivity, and quality.

Mass market highly pricesensitive.

Intensely competitive due tolow entry barriers, low sellerconcentration, and strong retailbuying power

Differentiation can yieldsubstantial price premium, butimitation rapid.

Combine effective differentiation withlow-costs

Key differentiation variables are speedof response to changing fashion, style,reputation and quality.

Cost efficiency requires manufacture inlow wage countries.

Supermarkets Low prices. Convenient location. Wide range of products adapted

to local preferences. Fresh/quality produce, good

service, ease of parking,pleasant ambience.

Markets localized Intensity of price competition

depends on number andproximity of competitors.

Bargaining power a criticaldeterminant of cost of bought-in goods.

Low-cost operation requires operationalefficiency, scale-efficient stores, strongbuying power, low wage costs.

Differentiation requires wide product

range (hence, large stores), convenientlocation, easy parking.

Key Success Factors


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Key Success FactorsI dentifying key success factors by analyzing profit driversExample of Retailing (Figure 3.7)

ROCE

Return on Sales

Sales/CapitalEmployed

Sales mix of products

Avoiding markdowns throughtight inventory control

Maximize buying power to minimize

cost of goods purchased

Maximize sales/square foot through:*location *product mix*customer service *quality control

Maximize inventory turnover throughelectronic data interchange, closevendor relationships, fast delivery

Minimize capital deploymentthrough outsourcing & leasing

Key Success Factors


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Key Success FactorsI dentifying key success factors by modeling profitabilityThe Airline I ndustry (Box 3.6)

Revenue

RPMs

RPMs

ASMs

Income

ASMs

Expenses

ASMs= x -

Yield Load factorProfitability Unit cost

Strength of competition on routes.

Responsiveness to changingmarket conditions

% business travelers

Achieving differentiationadvantage

Price competitiveness. Efficiency of route planning. Flexibility and

responsiveness. Customer loyalty. Meeting customer

requirements.

Wage rates. Fuel efficiency of planes. Employee productivity. Load factors. Administrative overhead.

ASM = Available Seat Miles ( number of seats available for sale x distance traveled in miles )RPM = Revenue Passenger Miles ( number of paying passengers x distance traveled in miles )

Analisi - Cap03

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