An Update on the An Update on the Colorado Regional Haze Colorado Regional Haze

SIP SIP Process and OutcomesProcess and Outcomes

Presented at: Presented at:

WRAP – Implementation Work GroupWRAP – Implementation Work Group

San Francisco, CASan Francisco, CA

March 2005 March 2005

Purpose

Present an overview of SIP development process in Colorado with special attention to “what’s

next” • source category attribution analysis;

2. strategy assessment; and, 3. demonstrating Reasonable Progress

Major Topic AreasMajor Topic AreasBackground Background Summary of current Summary of current activities/issuesactivities/issuesOverview of likely technical Overview of likely technical approach – Using Attribution approach – Using Attribution of Haze and 2018 modeling of Haze and 2018 modeling Questions and discussionQuestions and discussion

SIP Requirements

Section 308Section 308Establish reasonable progress goals for Establish reasonable progress goals for each area (2018) considering:each area (2018) considering:

Cost, time, energy/non air impacts, remaining Cost, time, energy/non air impacts, remaining useful life of affected sourcesuseful life of affected sources

ApportionmentApportionmentIdentify areas each jurisdiction may affectIdentify areas each jurisdiction may affectIdentify jurisdiction’s share of emission Identify jurisdiction’s share of emission reduction obligationsreduction obligations

Control measuresControl measuresMust achieve the jurisdiction’s obligationMust achieve the jurisdiction’s obligationMust include BART or superior alternativeMust include BART or superior alternative

Regional Haze Background

Staff involvement with WRAP Staff involvement with WRAP

Commission opted for 308 over Commission opted for 308 over 309309

Colorado RH SIP submittal must be Colorado RH SIP submittal must be approved by Legislature before approved by Legislature before formal transmittal to EPA formal transmittal to EPA

Colorado Regional Haze SIP A Compressed Timeline for Decisions

Determine currentLevels and presumptive Reasonable progress

Colorado’s share of Colorado’s share of emission reductions including:emission reductions including:- BART or superior alternative- BART or superior alternative- Construction and fire- Construction and fire- All other sources - All other sources

Regional-scale modeling Regional-scale modeling of base cases for 2002 and 2018of base cases for 2002 and 2018and control scenarios testing and control scenarios testing

Develop SIPDevelop SIPDevelop TSDDevelop TSDSIP Hearings SIP Hearings

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Determine state-by-state Determine state-by-state contributions to contributions to Class I areas Class I areas

SIP Technical SIP Technical ActivitiesActivities

Attribution of HazeAttribution of Haze

2018 Base Case and 2018 Base Case and ControlControl ScenariosScenarios

EPA Framework•Draft “Guidance for Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for PM2.5 and Regional Haze”, January 2001•Living document - may be revised as needed and posted on EPA’s website http://www.epa.gov/scram001/guidance/guide/draft_pm.pdf•Will finalize guidance as part of PM2.5 implementation rule- 2005?

Regional Haze SIP Modeling

The 2018 Base Case will define the amount of The 2018 Base Case will define the amount of additional reductions still needed to meet additional reductions still needed to meet Reasonable ProgressReasonable ProgressEPA has indicated the Weight of Evidence EPA has indicated the Weight of Evidence approach will be used to demonstrate RP goal approach will be used to demonstrate RP goal is metis metThe 2018 control scenarios will establish The 2018 control scenarios will establish estimates of number of tons of emissions and estimates of number of tons of emissions and deciview improvement needed to meet deciview improvement needed to meet Reasonable Progress GoalReasonable Progress GoalSpecific source reductions and how achieved Specific source reductions and how achieved will be a state rolewill be a state role

Attribution of HazeAttribution of Haze

Enhancements to Phase IRMC training for states/tribes on AoH methods and tools States/tribes run control scenarios

Used for Used for comparison comparison of TSSA of TSSA and TRA and TRA resultsresults

Boundary Boundary states states (inner (inner circle)circle)

U.S. U.S. regions regions (outer (outer circle)circle)

InternationInternational (Can., al (Can., Mex.)Mex.)

Other Other (ocean, (ocean, gulf, gulf, boundary boundary conditions, conditions, unknown or unknown or not able to not able to attribute)attribute)

Source Region Grouping - Source Region Grouping - ExampleExample

Rocky Rocky Mountain Mountain National National

Park Park

Tagged Species Tagged Species SourceSource

ApportionmentApportionment

and, Trajectory and, Trajectory Regression Regression

AnalysisAnalysis

A Class I Areas – A Step-by Step Analysis Needed

1. Click on the COHA Site Assessment link

(http://coha.dri.edu/web/state_analysis/Colorado/RockyMountainNP.html)

 

2. Go to the last link at the bottom of the page, Trajectory Regression

Results

(http://coha.dri.edu/web/state_analysis/Colorado/ROMO1/ROMO1_trajregress.html)

This page will show the attributions in graphical form for all regions,

including the 4 quadrants of Colorado.

 

3. Click on Tabular Regression Results to get a tabular listing of the

information

(http://coha.dri.edu/web/state_analysis/Colorado/ROMO1/ROMO1_trajregress_tables.html)

 

Use AoH information to Use AoH information to develop the RH SIP control develop the RH SIP control

optionsoptions1.Concise definition of the problem for

each Class I area in state – identify source categories contributions

2. Use with other tools (modeling, statistical models) make case for reductions and develop strategies

3. Develop draft SIP document to frame issues for policy and planning discussions (see our handout)

Questions… Questions…