Preliminary WRAP Haze Modeling Results

Lee Alter

Western Governors’ Association

January 10, 2005

Tucson, AZ

Caveats

• Results are preliminary– Became available last week– Minor emission errors identified– Other issues identified in CENRAP emissions– Further QA planned

• The following emissions are held constant– Sources outside the U.S.– CA nonroad sources and ocean-going vessels– Biogenics, wb dust, and smoke (Wx, Rx, ag)

Caveats

• Emission changes limitted to known / certain controls on stationary, area, and land-based mobile sources. In WRAP region, this equates to annual change of:

- 51,000 tons of SO2 (-5%)

- 1,040,000 tons of NOx (-28%)

635,000 tons of PM10 (31%)

424,000 tons of VOC (14%)[Results include AK, but do not include expected increases in OGVs and expected decreases in CA nonroad.]

Caveats

• Each Class I area projection based on modeled differences during ~22 days in 2002

Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathSan Gorgonio Wilderness - 20% Worst Days

21.5420.58

18.17

15.77

13.36

10.95

8.547.10

19.91

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064

Year

Ha

zin

ess

In

de

x (D

eci

vie

ws)

Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction

Uniform Rate of Reasonable Progress Glide PathSaguaro NM - 20% Worst Days

14.87 14.3413.00

11.6610.32

8.987.64

6.84

14.41

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048 2052 2056 2060 2064

Year

Ha

zin

ess

In

de

x (D

eci

vie

ws)

Glide Path Natural Condition (Worst Days) Observation Method 1 Prediction

Percent of URP Achieved by 2018 Base Case

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

BR

CA

1

CA

NY

1

GR

CA

2

ME

VE

1

SA

PE

1

WE

MI1

ZIO

N1

BA

ND

1

BO

AP

1

CH

IR1

GIC

L1

GR

SA

1

IKB

A1

SA

CR

1

SA

GU

1

SIA

N1

WH

IT1

WH

PE

1

Pe

rcen

t o

f D

eci

view

s A

ch

ieve

d

Colorado Plateau Desert Southwest

Percent of URP Achieved by 2018 Base Case

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

BA

DL1

CA

BI1

GA

MO

1

LOS

T1

ME

LA1

MO

NT

1

SU

LA1

TH

RO

1

UL

BE

1

WIC

A1

CR

MO

1

JAR

B1

SA

WT

1

BR

ID1

NO

AB

1

RO

MO

1

WH

RI1

YE

LL2

Pe

rcen

t o

f D

eci

view

s A

ch

ieve

d

North Great Basin Rockies

Percent of URP Achieved by 2018 Base Case

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%H

EC

A1

KA

LM1

MO

HO

1

MO

RA

1

NO

CA

1

OLY

M1

PA

SA

1

SN

PA

1

ST

AR

1

TH

SI1

WH

PA

1

AG

TI1

BLI

S1

DO

ME

1

HO

OV

1

JOS

H1

LAV

O1

PIN

N1

RE

DW

1

SA

GA

1

SA

GO

1

YO

SE

1

Per

cen

t o

f D

eciv

iew

s A

chie

ved

Pacific Northwest California

See Spreadsheet Handout for Class I Area Resultsfor 20% Worst Days