AMPS — Moving into the Next Phase
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Transcript of AMPS — Moving into the Next Phase
AMPS— Moving into the Next Phase
Background
AMPS’s Next Phase— Plans
Future Possibilities
www.mmm.ucar/rt/mm5/amps
AMPS Users’ Workshop 200410 June 2004
Jordan G. PowersMesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, NCAR
I. Background
Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) At-a-glance
NCAR & Polar Met. Group, BPRC, The Ohio State Univ.
Plus: SPAWAR contributions
Real-time, high-resolution mesoscale model over Antarctica (since 2000): “Polar MM5”
Support of Antarctic forecasting and science operations
Tailored to needs of
(1) SPAWAR forecasters and the USAP
(2) international community
Phase 2 Goals
October 2002–September 2004 (current phase)
New Data Assimilation Capability: 3DVAR
– 3-Dimensional Variational data assimilation
Polar Physics Development
Ex: Upper boundary condition
Verification
– Seasonal forecast verification
– SOM (Self-Organizing Map) study
AMPS Users’ Workshops
Phase 2: Additional Gains
10-km Antarctic Peninsula grid
Expansion in international support
Scientific field activity support
GLOBEC (Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics)
NASA P3 Pine Island Bay operations(flights investigating calving glaciers)
Archive-derived climatologies for Raytheon support
Rescues: Flight Assistance
September 2003 (South Pole medevac) April 2004 (McMurdo medevac)
II. AMPS’s Next Phase— Plans
Next Phase: October 2004–September 2006
Implementation of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)
Enhanced Grids
Ex: 30 km Antarctica grid 20 km grid
NB: Dependent on computing hardware
Data assimilation
– Explore new approaches: Ensemble Kalman Filter
– New data sources E.g: COSMIC GPS radio occultations (2006)
New Physics
– Blowing snow parameterization
– Cloud-radiation interaction: representation of downwelling longwave radiation
– Treatment of horizontal pressure-gradient force
Verification
– Evaluation of new physics
– Analysis of event performance
Climatological Database
– Web-based tool to allow compilation of climatology of locations, using archive
Assistance to International Antarctic Activities
Italy (PRNA) Terra Nova Bay
British Antarctic Survey Rothera
Germany Neumayer
Australia . Casey, Davis, Mawson (Bureau of Met.)
South African (S.A. Weather Service)
Russia Novolazarevskaya
Japan Syowa
Chile Eduardo Frei
Norway Troll
36h WRF Precip Forecast
Analyzed Precip
27 Sept. 2002Hurricane Isidore
• Designed for both research and operational applications
• Extensive use for real-time forecasting
• Registered users as of June 1, 2004: 845
• WRF Partner/Collaborators
– NCAR– NOAA National Centers for Environmental
Prediction– NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory
– Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA)– Federal Aviation Administration– Naval Research Laboratory
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
10 km WRF
WRF Frontal Forecast 24-hr WRF fcst: Valid 00 UTC 25 October 2001 (12-km grid)
WRF vertically-integrated cloud water IR imagery
WRF AMPS Test Forecast 72-hr WRF fcst: Valid 12 UTC 17 Nov 2003 (30-km grid)
SLP interval= 4 mb SLP interval= 4 mb
WRFMM5
III. Future Possibilities
Application of New Verification/Analysis Techniques
Field Campaign Support
Enhanced International Collaborations and SPAWAR Involvement
Eduardo Frei Stn.
Applications of Kinetic Energy Spectra from AMPS Real-Time Verification System
Power spectra of wind and computed from aircraft data
(Nastrom and Gage 1985)
k-3 and k-5/3 power curvesshown
GASP data(Global Atmospheric Sampling Program)
AMPS Kinetic Energy Spectra
Spectra computed from u, v, w through ~525–237 mb layer
Hr. 24 Fcst init: 1200 UTC 3 Sept 2003Grid x indicated
Spectra for 10-km and 3.3-km AMPS gridsHr. 24 Fcst init:00 UTC 03 Sept 2003
100
400 hPa height and wind speed on 10-km AMPS grid
Hr. 24 Fcst init:00 UTC 03 Sept 2003
Height (m)Interval=10 m
Wind speed (m/s)Interval= 2.5 m/s
10-km AMPS Spectra (Hr 24)
Area / subarea of domain indicated
– Spectral analysis may illuminate effects of high-resolution grids traditional error statistics might not reveal
– Application of high-res grids over Antarctica may improve representation of the variance of tropospheric flows
(i) Better reproduction of observed power laws on the mesoscale
(ii) Greater power variance on the mesoscale
Planned AWS sitesPlanned radiosonde sites
New AWS sitesSouth Pole traverse route
RIME Supersite
Siple Dome / Onset Delta
Roosevelt Island
Franklin Island
Planned AWS sitesPlanned radiosonde sites
New AWS sitesSouth Pole traverse route
RIME Supersite
Siple Dome / Onset Delta
Roosevelt Island
Franklin Island
Field Campaign Support
1) Antarctic RIME: Antarctic Regional Interactions Meteorology Experiment (A-RIME)
Planned measurement sites forRIME instrumentation deployments. A few existing AWSs shown as small green circles. (Many AWSs not shown.)
Field phases: Dec. ’06– Jan. ’07Dec. ’07– Feb. ’08Sept. ’08–Feb. ’09
– Pre- A-RIME Studies
Analysis of AMPS archive for instrument siting and information for logistical issues
Case studies to identify meteorology issues for exploration in A-RIME
– A-RIME Logistics
Special AMPS products and windows
Ex: Ferrell close-up coverage,time series & soundings for A-RIME points
Higher-resolution experimental grid(s)
Ex: 1-km one-way nests (e.g., Ross Air Stream)
Field Campaign Support (cont’d)
2) ANTCI: Antarctic Tropospheric Chemistry Experiment
First field phase: Nov.–Dec. 2005
Twin Otter flights to sample PBL
– AMPS Support
Flight forecasting and specialized products
Model datasets for event analysis
ANTCI Flights: Yellow areas: focused on sulfur species; Green areas: focused on reactive nitrogen compounds; Blue areas: focused on both.
McMurdo
South Pole
AGO 2
AGO 4
Beardmore
Moody Nun
TAMSEIS Camp
Refueling sites (possible locations)
Deployment sites
Sulfur study areas
Reactive Nitrogen study areas
Both Sulfur and Reactive Nitrogen study areas
McMurdo
South Pole
AGO 2
AGO 4
Beardmore
Moody Nun
TAMSEIS Camp
Refueling sites (possible locations)
Deployment sites
Sulfur study areas
Reactive Nitrogen study areas
Both Sulfur and Reactive Nitrogen study areas
Future Possibilities (cont’d)
Enhanced International Cooperation and Support
– Contributions to/collaborations in AMPS operations
– Involvement of COMNAP in support of AMPS (?)
(Council of Managers of National Antarctic Programs)
SPAWAR Involvement
– Participation in AMPS operations during field seasons
– Establishment of AMPS liaison
Ex: Product coordinator
Summary
AMPS next phase (2004–2006) planning in progress
Implementation of new model for AMPS: WRF
Improved system capabilities
– Polar physics development
– Data assimilation improvement
Strengthen Antarctic observational–forecasting–modeling operational & research collaborations, including international efforts