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AlvinIndependentSchoolDistrict

Quarterly Report

4Q17

Economic Conditions – Houston Area (December 2017)

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UnemploymentRate

-0.6%

59,268 new jobsNational rate 1.2%

Job Growth

1.9%1,818 more

starts than 4Q16

AnnualHome Starts

27,307

Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

U.S. 3.9%Texas 3.7%

Houston MSA 4.3%Pearland 3.3%Alvin 5.2%

Alvin ISD Home Sales

• Alvin ISD had roughly 3,015 home sales in 2017, and about 38% were new homes

• The average sale price in 2017 for a new home in AISD was $318,155

• The average sale price in 2017 for an existing home in AISD was $245,462

2017 Home Sales by Transaction Type

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Existing Home Sales55.83%

New Home Sales38.66%

REO Sales3.55%

Foreclosures1.96%

District HomeSales by Type

Houston New Home Ranking Report

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ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q17

*Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff

Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future1 Fort Bend ISD 3,035 3,195 4,054 13,5252 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 2,766 2,810 3,250 15,8213 Lamar CISD 2,501 2,438 4,402 17,3254 Katy ISD 2,422 2,242 3,583 15,1875 Conroe ISD 2,243 2,089 4,836 23,9416 Houston ISD 2,141 1,980 3,134 8,9627 Alvin ISD* 1,319 1,281 2,059 19,0188 Humble ISD 1,299 1,150 2,122 7,5509 Tomball ISD 1,131 1,078 2,228 3,097

10 Klein ISD 916 1,028 1,820 1,97511 Clear Creek ISD 942 986 1,487 3,28212 Spring ISD 641 725 676 6,59013 Spring Branch ISD 600 528 1,265 1,06314 Dickinson ISD 561 401 933 5,33815 New Caney ISD 519 393 962 3,42916 Sheldon ISD 420 393 782 3,32817 Aldine ISD 430 364 864 1,08618 Magnolia ISD 343 343 1,107 3,86819 Barbers Hill ISD 414 331 412 85320 Pearland ISD 258 327 256 1,404

New Housing Activity

• Alvin ISD started and closed more than 1,250 new homes in 2017• This is the most annual starts and closings in more than 10 years• New home inventory is at a healthy 6.3 month’s supply

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Alvin ISD

Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20171Q 195 143 205 229 314 292 1Q 178 178 156 212 227 2772Q 204 186 233 299 209 392 2Q 200 168 232 274 246 2943Q 204 174 252 243 316 390 3Q 193 158 188 244 293 4064Q 151 163 224 252 262 245 4Q 182 155 226 228 293 304

Total 754 666 914 1,023 1,101 1,319 Total 753 659 802 958 1,059 1,281

0

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150

200

250

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400

450

Starts Closings

Annual Closings

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Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings

Quarter Closings VDL Future

1 Rodeo Palms 180 36 92 1,3042 Meridiana 178 50 247 4,9583 Lakes of Savannah (Pomona) 169 39 181 8044 Southlake (AISD) 118 26 67 1035 Sterling Lakes 112 31 331 3,0856 Pomona 109 32 274 1,5617 Sedona Lakes 97 18 63 2378 Southern Trails 63 17 31 09 Lakeland 62 2 123 231

10 Kendall Lakes 48 15 89 70TOTALS 1,136 266 1,498 12,557

Vacant Delivered Lots

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Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q17 (Ranked by remaining VDL)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings VDL Future

1 Sterling Lakes 112 331 3,0852 Pomona 109 274 1,5613 Meridiana 178 247 4,9584 Sierra Vista 0 211 5216 Lakes of Savannah (Pomona) 169 181 8045 Lakeland 62 123 2318 Rodeo Palms 180 92 1,3047 Kendall Lakes 48 89 709 Savannah Plantation 20 76 22

10 Newport Lake Estates 0 73 98TOTALS 878 1,697 12,858

Future Lots

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Top 10 Subdivisions - 4Q17 (Ranked by Future Inventory)

Rank SubdivisionAnnual Closings VDL Future

1 Meridiana 178 247 4,9582 Sterling Lakes 112 331 3,0853 Walton 1445 Acres 0 0 2,5004 Pomona 109 274 1,5615 Rodeo Palms 180 92 1,3046 Massey Oaks 0 0 9757 Lakes of Savannah (Pomona) 169 181 8048 Sierra Vista 0 211 5219 Lacovia Lakes 0 0 440

10 Yanni Palms 0 0 376TOTALS 748 1,336 16,524

New Home Activity by Elementary Zone

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Highest activity in the category

Second highest activity in the category

Third highest activity in the category

ELEMENTARY ATTENDANCE ZONE

Annual Starts

Quarter Starts

Annual Closings

Quarter Closings

Under Const. Inventory

Vacant Dev. Lots Future

ALVIN 21 0 22 1 9 14 79 256BROTHERS 58 7 63 17 17 28 31 0DUKE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0HASSE 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 169HOOD-CASE 60 8 47 15 12 19 7 1,467JETER 198 18 180 36 31 58 165 1,778MAREK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0MASON 58 20 62 2 28 31 194 485MERIDIANA 303 63 292 81 105 181 847 11,504PASSMORE 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 18POMONA 405 90 375 89 181 251 518 2,602SAVANNAH LAKES 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0STEVENSON/DISNEY 3 0 2 1 2 2 6 324TWAIN 61 20 48 15 24 38 89 312WILDER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0YORK 152 19 190 38 28 45 109 103

Grand Total 1,319 245 1,281 295 437 667 2,059 19,018

District Housing Overview

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• The district has more than 2,050 lots available to build on

• Alvin ISD has more than 19,000 planned future lots

• Of those, groundwork is underway on about 600 lots

Residential Activity

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Meridiana• 5,502 total lots• 4,958 futures• 204 occupied• 247 VDL• 58 U/C• $250K-$750K• Building 180 – 200 homes in 2018• Current student yield = 0.59• Meridiana Elementary • Approx. 1,900 total elementary

students at build out

Residential Activity

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Sierra Vista• 732 total lots• Phase 1 with 211 lots delivered

December 2017• First homes starting early 2018• $250K+• Meridiana Elementary• Approx. 250 total elementary

students at build out

Lacovia Lakes• Approx. 440 future lots• Preliminary plat approved in

November 2016• Homebuilding could start by

late 2019 or early 2020• Split between Meridiana and

Mason Elementary• Approx. 150 total elementary

students at build out

Residential Activity

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Pearland ISD

Bluewater Lakes• 330 total lots• 254 future lots• 4 homes under construction • Sections 1 & 3 with 128 lots

delivered 4Q17• First homes occupied early 2018• Beezer Homes• Mason Elementary• Approx. 80 total elementary

students at build out

Massey Oaks• 975 total lots• Property was rezoned and annexed into the City of

Pearland in July 2017• Entire development moved into AISD boundary

and approved by Pearland ISD and Alvin ISD• Hood-Case Elementary• Approx. 250 total elementary students at build out

Martha’s Vineyard• 315 total future lots• Groundwork underway on Phase

1 with 143 lots• Homes starting mid to late 2018• Hood-Case Elementary• Approx. 75 total elementary

students at build out

Five Year ForecastBy Grade Level

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• Alvin ISD may enroll 27,000 students by 2019• 5 year enrollment growth = 5,912• 2022/23 enrollment = 30,805• 10 year enrollment growth = 10,307• 2027/28 enrollment = 35,201

*Yellow box = largest grade per year*Green box = second largest grade per year

Year (Oct.) EE/PK K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th TotalTotal

Growth %

Growth 2013/14 842 1,657 1,604 1,631 1,517 1,412 1,527 1,469 1,418 1,507 1,524 1,453 1,273 975 19,8092014/15 852 1,670 1,770 1,676 1,668 1,570 1,504 1,583 1,506 1,484 1,662 1,416 1,429 1,076 20,866 1,057 5.3%2015/16 844 1,720 1,800 1,855 1,758 1,746 1,612 1,628 1,679 1,564 1,719 1,579 1,419 1,235 22,158 1,292 6.2%2016/17 851 1,726 1,920 1,880 1,923 1,875 1,853 1,711 1,728 1,762 1,837 1,686 1,607 1,272 23,631 1,473 6.6%2017/18 819 1,779 1,842 1,985 1,976 2,034 1,981 1,939 1,797 1,803 2,009 1,800 1,675 1,454 24,893 1,262 5.3%2018/19 819 1,824 1,911 1,927 2,076 2,081 2,145 2,088 2,025 1,863 2,005 1,919 1,770 1,547 26,000 1,107 4.4%2019/20 821 1,876 1,978 1,979 1,997 2,184 2,179 2,272 2,217 2,135 2,083 1,907 1,871 1,638 27,136 1,136 4.4%2020/21 821 1,925 2,000 2,058 2,044 2,093 2,294 2,278 2,422 2,353 2,385 2,027 1,880 1,730 28,311 1,175 4.3%2021/22 821 1,962 2,062 2,091 2,174 2,165 2,214 2,350 2,464 2,622 2,595 2,297 2,004 1,747 29,568 1,258 4.4%2022/23 821 2,044 2,090 2,140 2,158 2,292 2,273 2,307 2,541 2,681 2,873 2,483 2,241 1,861 30,805 1,237 4.2%2023/24 821 2,068 2,185 2,159 2,236 2,269 2,410 2,409 2,510 2,779 2,933 2,751 2,424 2,068 32,022 1,216 3.9%2024/25 821 2,109 2,210 2,286 2,246 2,336 2,383 2,527 2,576 2,696 3,067 2,830 2,694 2,252 33,033 1,011 3.2%2025/26 821 2,135 2,250 2,307 2,378 2,356 2,467 2,496 2,725 2,789 2,954 2,931 2,765 2,504 33,878 846 2.6%2026/27 821 2,163 2,269 2,350 2,398 2,481 2,481 2,573 2,666 2,920 3,099 2,847 2,868 2,580 34,516 638 1.9%2027/28 821 2,211 2,296 2,366 2,439 2,501 2,604 2,613 2,772 2,884 3,260 2,978 2,781 2,675 35,201 685 2.0%

Five Year Forecast By Elementary Campus

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*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity*Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings

Permanent Building Capacity

Cap. W/Temp/ Flex/Bldgs

October ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCampus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28

Alvin Elementary 484 704 547 525 520 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Alvin Primary 702 746 589 592 601 631 634 631 617 617 606 618 615 622Hood-Case Elementary 750 926 717 671 678 653 659 671 712 721 742 761 772 781Jeter Elementary 800 888 796 829 851 739 790 847 867 886 902 921 940 940Hasse Elementary 800 800 713 769 811 757 763 762 772 766 762 760 749 739Marek Elementary 800 888 886 765 723 693 666 685 690 714 708 711 730 739Mark Twain Elementary 800 800 773 783 800 709 738 735 737 743 749 749 752 756Mason Elementary 653 829 757 695 729 547 576 621 657 659 661 662 656 658Passmore Elementary 750 838 708 674 675 766 754 759 785 805 813 833 825 808Savannah Lakes Elementary 800 932 897 844 837 828 835 822 850 863 879 909 938 966R L Stevenson Elementary 613 745 598 592 590 541 545 540 538 535 551 561 571 584Walt Disney Elementary 572 572 566 543 526 495 474 473 464 480 458 465 474 486Wilder Elementary 800 932 937 843 847 832 785 778 760 777 790 798 814 826York Elementary 800 800 1,005 869 907 869 863 862 843 846 852 857 859 869Duke Elementary 800 888 908 539 531 658 642 625 624 629 639 654 668 686Meridiana Elementary 800 800 610 701 802 449 500 564 621 660 712 760 797 848Brothers Elementary 800 800 0 770 843 817 827 805 816 816 822 826 829 838Pomona Elementary 800 800 0 399 499 619 707 768 817 908 954 982 1,007 1,032Nelson Elementary 800 800 N/A N/A N/A 663 658 664 674 676 659 665 665 673Sanchez Elementary 800 800 N/A N/A N/A 735 806 864 961 1,034 1,119 1,209 1,289 1,374ELEMENTARY TOTALS 13,324 14,688 12,007 12,403 12,770 13,001 13,222 13,476 13,805 14,135 14,378 14,701 14,950 15,225Elementary Absolute Growth 696 396 367 231 221 254 329 330 243 323 249 275Elementary Percent Growth 6.15% 3.30% 2.96% 1.81% 1.70% 1.92% 2.44% 2.39% 1.72% 2.25% 1.69% 1.84%

Five Year ForecastBy Secondary Campus

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*Yellow box = enrollment exceeds stated permanent building capacity*Red box = enrollment exceeds stated capacity with temp/flex buildings

Permanent Building Capacity

Cap. W/Temp/ Flex/Bldgs

October ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSCampus 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 2027/28

Alvin Junior High 1,000 1,000 831 847 967 997 949 940 927 920 933 930 937 929Fairview Junior High 1,000 1,000 757 719 745 791 836 871 837 840 873 888 889 884Harby Junior High 832 904 768 766 781 847 894 926 882 927 932 978 965 977Rodeo Palms 1,000 1,000 780 970 898 1,030 1,140 1,249 1,324 1,383 1,365 1,381 1,388 1,386Manvel Junior High 1,000 1,000 1,009 1,135 887 1,022 1,104 1,261 1,351 1,491 1,575 1,729 1,821 1,919Ryan Junior High 1,000 1,144 1,055 1,099 827 939 1,037 1,056 1,038 978 971 950 978 975McNair Junior High 1,000 N/A N/A N/A 868 995 1,090 1,130 1,167 1,156 1,147 1,151 1,178 1,196JUNIOR HIGH TOTALS 5,832 6,048 5,200 5,536 5,973 6,621 7,050 7,433 7,526 7,695 7,796 8,007 8,156 8,266Junior High Absolute Growth 330 336 437 648 429 383 93 169 101 211 149 110Junior High Percent Growth 6.78% 6.46% 7.89% 10.85% 6.48% 5.43% 1.25% 2.25% 1.31% 2.71% 1.86% 1.35%Alvin High School 2,640 2,760 2,661 2,763 2,716 2,726 2,816 2,867 3,038 3,117 3,150 3,126 3,118 3,173Manvel High School 2,685 2,901 2,091 1,832 1,781 1,863 2,041 2,217 2,445 2,696 2,974 3,142 3,400 3,620Shadow Creek High School 2,500 2,500 1,470 2,194 2,567 2,738 3,000 3,388 3,806 4,194 4,549 4,717 4,707 4,731HIGH SCHOOL TOTALS 7,825 8,161 6,222 6,789 7,064 7,327 7,857 8,472 9,289 10,007 10,673 10,985 11,225 11,524High School Absolute Growth 450 567 275 263 530 615 817 718 666 312 240 299High School Percent Growth 7.80% 9.11% 4.05% 3.72% 7.23% 7.83% 9.64% 7.73% 6.66% 2.92% 2.18% 2.66%Assets 300 300 197 159 187 181 176 181 179 179 180 179 179 179Brazoria Co. J JAEP 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6ALTERNATIVE TOTALS 300 300 202 165 193 187 182 187 185 185 186 185 185 186DISTRICT TOTALS 27,281 29,197 23,631 24,893 26,000 27,136 28,311 29,568 30,805 32,022 33,033 33,878 34,516 35,201District Absolute Growth 1,473 1,262 1,107 1,136 1,175 1,258 1,237 1,216 1,011 846 638 685District Percent Growth 6.6% 5.3% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 3.9% 3.2% 2.6% 1.9% 2.0%

Summary

• The Houston MSA annual job growth rate has returned to nearly 2% after being depressed since 2014.

• Alvin ISD started more than 1,300 new homes in 2017.

• Six subdivisions within Alvin ISD closed more than 100 new homes in 2017.

• Sierra Vista and Bluewater Lakes have their first phases delivered and are starting homebuilding.

• Alvin ISD added 1,265 students this fall.

• Five-year enrollment growth of 5,912 students, with a fall 2022 enrollment of 30,805.

• Ten-year enrollment growth of 10,307 students, with a fall 2027 enrollment of 35,201.

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