1

ALTRAN TECHNOLOGIES

BUY, TARGET PRICE €7.62 (upside +29.4%)

MARKET DATA

Stock price (closing 22/02/13)

5.89 €

Shares nb fully diluted in M 144.8

Market value (M€) 853.2

Net Debt adjusted (M €) 167.0

EV adjusted (M€) 1020.2

ISIN

FR0000034639 (ALT)

Market Eurolist B

Analysts P.Schang

analyses@nfiance.fr

2011 2012e 2013e 2014e

Revenues 1 420 1 456 1 644 1 682

%growth 7.2% 2.6% 12.9% 2.3%

EBIT 50.8 124.9 146.3 161.3

%margin 3.6% 8.6% 8.9% 9.6%

Net profit (45.5) 67.9 87.8 103.0

%growth -3.2% 4.7% 5.3% 6.1%

2011 2012e 2013e 2014e

EV/Sales 0.72 0.70 0.62 0.48

EV/EBIT 20.1 8.2 7.0 5.0

PE -18.8 12.6 9.7 8.3

Covered by NFinance since February 25, 2013

Calendar

March 14th, 2013 : Annual Results

Holdings

Altrafin Participations 19.00%

Alexis Kniazeff 4.82%

Hubert Martigny 4.82%

Free float 71.36%

25th FEBRUARY, 2013

Altran Group is a France-based company established nearly 30 years ago, providing

engineering consulting services to companies operating in the aerospace,

automotive, energy, railway, finance, healthcare and telecom industries. Consulting

services cover information systems, mechanical engineering, systems engineering

and embedded systems, and management of project lifecycle throughout all phases

of development, starting with strategic planning and ending with manufacturing. The

company has clients in over 20 countries in Europe, Asia and the Americas. During

2009-2010 the company suffered from the global economic recession as sales and

profitability declined. Nevertheless, in 2011-2012 the company returned to revenue

growth and restored profitability.

LATEST PRESS RELEASE COMMENTARY

In late January 2013, the company released preliminary annual turnover information

for full 2012, with revenue up by 2.6% to nearly €1.5 billion. In organic terms, revenue

increased by 4.3% year-on-year, driven by a 2.7% increase in France and 6.1% from

abroad. Technology and Innovation Consulting segment revenue increased by 6.1%

year-on-year, while the Organisation and IT Services segment was almost flat. The

company expects to register “significant improvement” in net income in 2012

compared to 2011. During 2012 the company’s headcount increased by 5% year-on-

year to 18,130 employees, including 16,126 consultants. In February 2013 the

company finalized the acquisition of IndustrieHansa, a German engineering and

consulting company with €161 million in annual revenues (2012) and 1,800

employees. Also in February 2013 Altran announced opening a new regional office in

Malaysia in line with the new strategic plan for 2012-2015.

ANALYSIS

The company improved its financial metrics during 2011, registered decent organic

growth in 2012 and will report improved margins for the year. While the economic

situation remains uncertain, we believe Altran should register rising revenue and

improving profitability going forward based on the restructuring efforts undertaken in

2011, the recent acquisition and expectations of increasing demand for R&D and IT

consulting services. Over the next 3 years the group will develop its business toward

the PLM (Product Lifecycle Management) and the Intelligent Systems solutions and

the emerging countries. In 2015 the management targets a top line at 2 000M€ with

an EBITA margin between 11% and 12% and a Free Cash Flow around 4% of the

consolidated revenues. Two third of the sales growth will be organic and 1 third from

acquisitions. In 2013, the group’s results will profit from 1) increasing utilisation rates

through dismissals 2) the ramp up of the restructuring measures and 3) favourable

base effect as 2 projects went out of control in 2012 occurring around 4M€E of

additional charges in our opinion (no effect on 2013).

VALUATION

We initiate Altran with a Buy rating and a 12 months target price of €7.62 per share

(DCF €9.04, WACC 11.8% terminal growth rate +1.0%, Peers €6.21) being confident

the ramp up of the restructuring measures et the 2012/2015 plan settled by the new

management will enable the group to focus its resources on the more profitable

opportunities.

2

SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................................................................... 3

GROUP PRESENTATION .......................................................................................................................................................... 4

GROUP HISTORY ..................................................................................................................................................................... 6

INVESTMENT TRIGGERS .......................................................................................................................................................... 7

Revenue growth .................................................................................................................................................................. 7

Margin improvement .......................................................................................................................................................... 7

Reorganisation .................................................................................................................................................................... 8

Focus on emerging markets ................................................................................................................................................ 8

Stronger balance sheet ....................................................................................................................................................... 9

INVESTMENT RISKS ................................................................................................................................................................. 9

Tight competition ............................................................................................................................................................... 9

Revenue concentration....................................................................................................................................................... 9

Convertible bonds still in circulation ......................................................................................... Erreur ! Signet non défini.

VALUATION ........................................................................................................................................................................... 11

FINANCIAL OVERVIEW .......................................................................................................................................................... 13

3

SUMMARY

Altran operates in the innovation and high‐tech engineering consulting market for 30

years. The company’s consultants and engineers assist clients in every stage of project

development, from strategic planning through manufacturing. The sectors served by the

company include aerospace, automotive, energy, railway, finance, healthcare and

telecoms. The solutions provided comprise: product lifecycle management, mechanical

engineering, embedded and critical systems, and information systems.

Since inception, Altran has grown both organically and through acquisitions. The

company has extended its geographical footprint, creating subsidiaries and opening

offices in 20 countries across Europe, North America and Asia. In its latest reports, Altran

expressed special interest in Indian and Chinese markets, which should provide

considerable growth opportunities. The acquisition of IndustrieHansa announced in

February 2013 should increase Altran’s presence on the German market and make it the

company’s “second largest market after France.”

During 2011 the company appointed a new Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive

Officer, who presented a new strategic plan for the company for 2012-2015. The plan

envisages reorganisation of business segments, emphasis on four market segment, focus

on investments in six core European countries, and strengthening of the development of

two new solutions.

Going forward we believe the company should maintain revenue growth and profitability

thanks to the restructuring efforts and increasing demand for its services.

4

GROUP PRESENTATION

Altran was established in France in 1982 as a small company providing technology and

innovation consultancy services. Since then the company has established a large French

network of subsidiaries and has entered over 20 countries in Europe, North America and

Asia. After 30 years of operation, Altran has 18,130 employees, of whom 16,126 are

consultants.

Altran operates in four main geographic markets:

• France;

• Northern zone – Germany, Austria, Benelux countries, Denmark, Ireland,

Norway, the UK, Sweden and Switzerland;

• Southern zone – Spain, Italy and Portugal;

• Rest of the world (ROW) – North America, Asia, Tunisia and the Middle East.

In 2012 just over half of all revenues came from France.

Sales by countries during 2012:

Source: company reports.

Altran has 2 business segments:

• Technology and innovation consulting (accounting for more than two-thirds of

revenues in 2012);

• Organisation and information systems consulting.

In the past, Altran also had another business line – strategy and management consulting,

provided by Arthur D. Little, a company acquired in 2007 and sold in 2011 due to low

profitability.

France - 51%

Germany & Austria - 8%

Benelux - 6%

UK - 6%

Scandinavia - 3%

Switzerland - 2%

Italy - 11%

Spain - 9%

Portugal - 1%

USA - 3%

5

Structure of revenues:

Source: company reports.

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€millions

Technology & Innovation Consulting Organisation & IT Services Consulting

Strategy and managemnt consulting Other segment

6

GROUP HISTORY1

1982: Altran is founded as a provider of engineering consultancy services for the

aerospace industry in France.

1987: listed on the Secondary Market of the Paris Stock Exchange.

1990: during the ‘90s, Altran changed its business model from in-house project

development to that of “temporary agency”.

1992: expansion outside of France through an acquisition in Belgium.

1993: Altran entered Spain.

1995: the company focused on the UK by acquiring two consulting firms.

1996: Altran targeted Italy by establishing a subsidiary and making one of its first

acquisitions in the country.

1997: the company started extending its activities into Germany by establishing Altran

Technologies GmbH and acquiring an aeronautics consulting company.

By the end of the 1990s Altran had more than 50 subsidiaries in France, 6 subsidiaries

in Spain and offices in Portugal, Austria, Switzerland and Luxembourg.

2000: Altran entered the US and South American (Brazil) market.

2006: all France-based subsidiaries were merged under the name of Altran

Technologies SA.

2007: Altran expands into strategic and management consulting field through the

purchase of Arthur D. Little.

2011: Disposal of Arthur D. Little and Brazilian subsidiaries.

2012: In accordance with the new strategic plan for 2012-2015, the company focuses

on two main markets: Technology & Innovation Consulting and Organisation & IT

Services Consulting.

2013: Acquisition of IndustrieHansa, a German engineering and consulting group

based.

1 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Altran

7

INVESTMENT TRIGGERS

Revenue growth

After two years of declining revenue due to the global recession, Altran has returned to

healthy revenue growth rates in 2011 and 2012. During 2011 revenue increased by 7.2%

year-on-year to €1.4 billion driven by solid performance in both business segments.

Organic revenue growth was 8.6% during 2011, which included a 1.6% unfavourable

impact of the change in the scope-of-consolidation due to the sale of the Arthur D. Little

subsidiary. During 2012 revenue increased by 2.6% year-on-year to €1.5 billion (4.3%

organic growth) driven mostly by the increase in demand for technology and innovation

consulting services, while the organisation and IT services consulting segment revenues

slightly declined due to the continued setbacks in the financial industry.

Segment revenue evolution:

Source: company reports.

After the recession Altran resumed hiring new staff hand-in-hand with improving business

conditions, suggesting that the company is seeing increasing business opportunities.

During both 2011 and 2012 the headcount increased by 5% year-on-year reaching

18,130 employees as of December 31, 2012.

Going forward we believe Altran should maintain healthy revenue growth rates based on

the latest restructuring efforts and overall expected increase in demand for its services.

Margin improvement

Since 2009, Altran has significantly improved its margins due to tight control of indirect

costs and disposal of several subsidiaries. In 2010 operating margin broke even, settling

at 2.7%, and in H1-2012 it rose to 7.1%. Net margin was negative until H1-2012 (4%)

mostly due to high costs of financial debt and losses from disposal of non-core

businesses.

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€millions

Technology & Innovation (TI) Organisation & IT Services (OIT)

TI % growth OIT % growth

8

Reorganisation

In 2011 the board of directors approved a new Chairman of the Board and Chief

Executive, Mr. Philippe Salle, who has come up with a strategic plan for the 2012-2015

period that envisages a revenue of more than €2 billion by 2015 and an EBITA margin of

11-12% in long-term2. The strategic plan has a number of key development vectors:

Reorganisation of the company’s business segments. Currently Altran has two

segments: Technology & Innovation and Organisation & IT Services. Previously

the company had 3 business segments including Strategy and management

consulting performed by Arthur D. Little, a company acquired in 2007 and sold in

2011;

Focus investments on six core European countries: Germany, Belgium, Spain,

France, Italy and the UK, while strengthening presence in other European

countries as well.

Concentrate on four industrial areas: “Automotive, infrastructure &

transportation”; “Aerospace, Defence & Railways”; “Energy, Industry & Life

Sciences”; “Telecoms & Media”;

Strengthen the development of two solutions: “Product Lifecycle Management”

and “Intelligent systems”.

As part of the reorganisation, during 2011 Altran disposed of several subsidiaries: Arthur

D. Little, Synectics Group (an American and Canadian subsidiary), all of the Group’s

Brazilian subsidiaries and a French subsidiary – Imnet.

Focus on emerging markets

In pursuing revenue growth and diversification, Altran targets emerging markets. In its

2011 annual report Altran reported that it pays special attention to China and India which

are witnessing active development of technological innovation. The company’s turnover in

Asia increased by 33% and by 20% organically during 2012 and 2011, respectively. In

February 2013 Altran announced opening a new regional office in Malaysia within the

scope of the 2012-2015 strategic plan. Emerging markets should provide Altran with the

much needed growth opportunities and diversification from the saturated and somewhat

sluggish European markets.

2 Source: http://www.altran.com/finance/strategic-plan.html

9

Stronger balance sheet

In recent years Altran has improved its balance sheet. During 2010 and 2011 the

company repaid some of the outstanding debt and decreased the leverage ratio from 3.8

in 2009 to 1.2 in H1-2012.

Leverage ratio evolution:

Source: company reports.

Cash and cash equivalents amounted to €139 million and accounted for 12% of total

assets as of June 30, 2012. This amount was the smallest end-of-year cash balance in

the past five years (as a result of debt repayment and acquisitions), however the

company’s solid cash generation ability should ensure that the cash balance will grow

going forward. In general, the company has been registering operating cash inflows

historically (except 2009 – the worst crisis year) and the working capital has been on an

uptrend since 2009. Cash can be used in a number of ways such as seizing potential

acquisition opportunities (which the company did with the recent IndustrieHansa

acquisition), debt repayment or payment of dividends

INVESTMENT RISKS

Tight competition

Altran is operating in a competitive market with a number of companies providing similar

or comparable services. The company also competes with large IT firms offering

traditional consulting and integration services and with research departments and

engineering firms specialising in one particular area. The larger IT and consulting

companies may benefit from economies of scale, greater R&D budgets and better

geographic diversification, making it harder for smaller players to remain competitive and

maintain margins and revenue growth.

Revenue concentration

In 2011, Altran’s top five and top ten clients accounted for 22% and 31% of total

revenues, respectively. This suggests that revenues are relatively concentrated and loss

of a major client would impact significantly the company’s performance.

0

1

2

3

4

5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 H1-2012

Leverage ratio

10

Altran’s revenue is also geographically concentrated in France, which is a mature and

saturated market. During 2012 revenues from France accounted for 51% of total revenue,

increasing from 43% in 2008. The company has already announced efforts to focus more

on emerging markets, but it will take time to diversify.

Convertible instruments still in circulation

In November 2009, the group issued around 30.1 millions of OCEANEs (convertible

bonds) with a nominal value of 4.38€, an interest of 6.7% and a dead line on January

2015. Each bond can be converted into one share. This instrument is currently listed in

Paris (FR0010823476 - YALE) at a price of 5.89€ (25th of Feb 2013). Te dilutive potential

of these instruments is around 17.2% for the current shareholders. As the stock price is

actually above the value of the “convertible bonds + actualised value of the interests”

value, we estimate that it is more interesting to own the stock as it is more liquid. We

therefore think that the dilutive risk from the conversion of the convertible bonds

significantly increase as the stock price goes up.

11

VALUATION

We valued Altran using a combination of three methods: DCF, relative valuation and

historical ratios, with a target price of €7.62 per share:

Methods Stock price

DCF 9.04 €

Peers 6.21 €

Average 7.62 €

PEERS COMPARISON

For peer comparison we have selected seven peers which provide similar services as

Altran and also have a global presence. We compute the average of all the

corresponding stock prices here under to end up with a target price at €6.21:

Peers EV/Sales EV/EBIDTA EV/EBIT PE P/BV

Alten SA 0,74 6,8 7,3 12,7 2,52

Atos SA 0,46 4,2 6,0 13,0 2,18

Bertrandt AG 1,03 8,8 10,6 14,6 4,09

Sopra Group SA 0,72 7,3 8,3 10,5 2,09

Cap Gemini SA 0,50 5,0 6,5 13,3 1,28

Groupe Steria SCA 0,34 4,1 5,5 6,4 0,67

Assystem SA 0,32 3,6 4,4 9,2 1,35

Median 0,50 4,97 6,48 12,70 2,09

Corresponding ALTRAN stock price 4,96 4,93 5,87 7,70 7,58

12

DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS:

Based on DCF, we valued the stock at €9.04 per share (WACC 11.8%, terminal growth

rate +1%):

2012 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e 2022e

Revenues 1 456 1 644 1 682 1 713 1 738 1 762 1 787 1 812 1 837 1 861 1 885

revenue growth % 2,6% 12,9% 2,3% 1,8% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,4% 1,3% 1,3%

EBIT 125 146 161 167 171 172 173 176 179 182 184

margin % 8,6% 8,9% 9,6% 9,8% 9,9% 9,8% 9,7% 9,7% 9,8% 9,8% 9,8%

Dep & Amort 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

CapEx -17 -20 -18 -16 -13 -11 -9 -7 -4 -2 0

WCR change -86 -57 -11 -9 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7 -7

Free Cash Flow (FCF) 70 69 132 143 150 154 157 162 168 172 177

Discounted cash flow 70 66 112 108 102 93 85 79 73 67 61

Discounted terminal value 625

For DCF we have considered the most recent acquisition of IndustrieHansa by

incorporating into the model its 2012 revenues of €161 million. At the same time, we

adjusted Altran’s net debt by an estimated acquisition price of €91 million3, calculated

based on the median P/S ratio for Altran’s peers and IndustrieHansa’s revenues for 2012.

WACC assumptions:

Beta 1,58

Market premium 6,5%

RiskFree Rate 3,0%

Cost of Equity 13,3%

Long-term Equity Weight 84%

Cost of Debt 6,5%

Long-term Tax rate 34%

Tax Effected Cost of Debt 4,3%

Long-term Debt Weight 16%

Terminal growth 1,0%

WACC 11,8%

DCF valuation M£

DCF stream 853,5

DC terminal value 624,6

Total DC Enterprise Value 1 478,1

Net Debt 167,0

Equity Value 1 311,1

Price target 9,04 €

3 Please note that this is only our approximation and Altran has not disclosed the purchase price.

13

FINANCIAL OVERVIEW

Profit and Loss account:

€ millions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Revenue 1,591 1,650 1,404 1,324 1,420 1,456

%growth 6.2% 3.7% -14.9% -5.6% 7.2% 2.6% Organic growth 7.4% 5.0% -11.3% 3.3% 8.6% 4.3% Technology&Innovation 748 868 830 926 988 1,049 %growth 16.3% 16.0% -4.4% 11.6% 6.7% 6.2% Organisation & IT 525 526.4 397.3 374.8 407.4 406.9 %growth 17.1% 0.2% -24.5% -5.6% 8.7% -0.1% Other 318 254 176 24 24 - %growth -21.2% -20.2% -30.7% -86.5% 1.2% -

Operating income 86 101 -8 58 98 n/a

%margin 5.4% 6.1% -0.5% 4.4% 6.9% n/a

Net profit/loss 22 11 -75 -26 -45 n/a

%margin 1.4% 0.7% -5.3% -2.0% -3.2% n/a

Altran’s revenue exhibited a V-shaped path in recent years, with a large decline in 2009 –

by 14.9% year-on-year to €1.4 billion, due to the global economic turmoil, followed by a

smaller decline in 2010 to €1.3 billion. However, in 2011 and 2012 sales returned to

growth, increasing by 7.2% and 2.6%, respectively (8.6% and 4.3% on organic basis).

The company registered increasing revenue across both business segments during 2011

and 2012 (except in 2012, when Organisation & IT revenues were virtually flat). The

“Other” segment was discontinued during 2011 after Altran sold Arthur D. Little.

Margins also bottomed out during 2009, and since then the company managed to recover

the operating margin to 7.1% and net margin to 4.0% in H1-2012. The margins improved

due to revenue growth and tight control of indirect costs.

France has usually accounted for the majority of revenues, with the share in revenues

increasing from 42% in 2007 to 51% in 2012, amounting to €743 million. The share of

revenues registered in the Northern zone had shrunk from 32% in 2007 to a quarter

during 2012 and amounted to €360 million. The Southern zone has made marginal gains

in terms of revenue share – from 19% in 2007 to 21% in 2012, and totalled €305 million.

14

Geographic revenue split:

*ADL stands for Arthur D. Little, discontinued on December 31, 2011.

Source: company reports, analyst calculations.

Almost all regional operating margins on ordinary activities have followed the same trend.

On average, the operating margin in the Northern region has been the highest one, at 8%

since 2007, with Rest of world generating losses until 2011.

Regional operating margins:

Source: company reports, analyst calculations

673 705 623 661 728 743

515 420 356 340

365 360

305 307

284 291 299 305

99 49

37 32 28 48

170

105

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

€millions

France Northern zoneSouthern zone ROW zone

ADL Year-on-year revenue growth

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

France Northern zone Southern zone

ROW zone Total operating margin

15

Balance Sheet

Balance Sheet € millions 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Goodwill 475 431 396 381 317

Non-current assets 173 161 188 185 163

Receivables 581 569 486 510 511

Other current assets 5 4 8 6 5

Cash 178 229 243 215 187

Equity 397 503 458 445 405

Financial debts 580 483 469 460 423

Payables 73 66 64 73 64

Other short-term liabilities 303 285 261 251 245

Other long-term liabilities 59 58 68 67 46

TOTAL 1,412 1,396 1,321 1,297 1,183

Net debt position 402 254 227 245 236

Working capital 211 222 169 191 207

Trade receivables accounted for 43% of total assets as of December 31, 2011 and

amounted to €511 million, remaining flat year-on-year. As of June 30, 2012 trade

receivables had increased to €529 million. Goodwill accounted for 27% of total assets as

of December 31, 2011 and amounted to €317 million. As of June 30, 2012 cash and cash

equivalents accounted for 12% of total assets, decreasing to €139 million from €187

million at the start of the year.

Equity position improved as of June 30, 2012, reaching nearly €437 million compared to

€405 million registered as of December 31, 2011, boosted by improved earnings.

As of June 30, 2012, the net debt amounted to €191million, the lowest level since 2007.

Working capital reached €213 million as of June 30, 2012, remaining relatively constant

since the beginning of the year.

Cash Flow statement

Historically Altran has consistently generated cash from operations, except in 2009, when

the company’s activity was impacted by the global economic recession.

Cash Flows € millions 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011

Net profit 71 78 -72 36 51 Depreciation and amortization 16 13 20 -10 25 Goodwill impairment 14 27 39 15 15 Other 6 12 -3 7 24 WCR -53 -67 13 -30 -73

Operational cash flows 54 62 -3 19 42

Industrial investments -20 -19 -13 -19 -18

Free cash flows 34 43 -16 0 23

16

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Le document ci-dessus peut utiliser les méthodes de valorisation suivantes :

Méthode DCF : la méthode des cash flows actualisés consiste à définir les cash flows qu'une société va dégager dans le futur et à les actualiser à un taux représentant le coût moyen pondéré du capital. Ces hypothèses sont calculées et définies par l'analyste.

Méthode des comparables boursiers : cette méthode consiste à calculer des ratios de valorisation de sociétés cotées comparables et à appliquer ces ratios aux fondamentaux de la société à valoriser.

Méthode des ratios de valorisation historiques : cette méthode consiste à calculer les ratios de valorisation moyens historiques de la société et à les appliquer à ses fondamentaux.

Méthode de l'ANR : consiste à évaluer les actifs du bilan en valeur de marché par la méthode la plus pertinente pour l'analyste Méthode des multiples de transaction : consiste à appliquer à la société les ratios de valorisation récemment constatés lors de transaction sur des sociétés comparables.

Ratings of companies under coverage at the 30/06/2012

43,8%

12,5%

40,6%

3,1%

Buy

Hold

Neutral

Sell