Allocating Unaccounted for Energy (UFE) in MISO
description
Transcript of Allocating Unaccounted for Energy (UFE) in MISO
Shawn Fountain
Vice President
Allocating Unaccounted for Energy (UFE) in MISO
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Presentation overview
Overview of MISO market
What is UFE
Common UFE allocation methods
Financial Impact
All numbers in this presentation are for illustration purposes only
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Main processes by functional area
Settlement Billing
Validate for Profiling Process
Determine Samples
Perform Analyses
Create Profiles
Process Inbound Reads
Validate Reads
Report Missing Reads
Estimate Reads
Edit Reads
Create Profiles Dynamically
Estimate Usage Dynamically
Apply Profiles
Aggregate
Send Data to Market
Receive Data from Market
Reconcile Data
Report Missing Required Data
Estimate Usage Dynamically
Apply Profiles
Calculate Determinants
Prepare Bills
MDMLoad
Research
Estimate Reads
Create Profiles
Create Profiles
Estimate Usage
Apply Profiles
Estimate Usage
Apply Profiles
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MISO “MDM” Market Participants
Meter Data Management Agent (MDMA) ─ An entity designated by a Market Participant to manage and conduct the metering services on the Market Participant’s behalf
Billing Agent ─ An entity designated by a Market Participant to manage and conduct the settlement and billing services on the Market Participant’s behalf
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MISO Commercial Model
A representation of relationships between Market Participants and their Resources, Commercial Pricing Nodes, and transactions
Derived from the Transmission Network Model
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Entities in the Commercial Model
ENode (Electrical Node) ─ Physical point of injection or withdrawal in the network model
EPNode (Elemental Pricing Node) ─ An ENode for which a price is calculated
Lowest level of granularity of the LMP calculation and the lowest level represented in the Commercial Model
EPNodes and their LMPs are not published
CPNode (Commercial Pricing Node) ─ An aggregate price for a collection of EPNodes
All settlements occur at the CPNode level
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MISO Commercial Model structure
MISO
CPNode (Load Zone)
CPNode(Hub)
CPNode(Gen)
EPNode EPNode EPNode
Internal Control Area
Internal Control Area
Enode ENode ENode
EPNode
ENode
CPNode (Load Zone)
CPNode (Load Zone)
CPNode(Gen)
EPNode EPNode EPNode
ENode ENode ENode
External Control Area
Flowgate Flowgate
Physical Entity
Financial Entity
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MISO settlement runs
Settlement 7 (S7) ─ 7 days after Op Day
Settlement 14 (S14) ─ 14 days after Op Day
Settlement 55 (S55) ─ 55 days after Op Day
Settlement 105 (S105) ─ 105 days after Op Day
J anuary May
2/1/2006Operating Day
2/15/2006Settlement 14
3/28/2006Settlement 55
5/17/2006Settlement 105
2/8/2006Settlement 7
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What is UFE?
The difference between aggregated metered load adjusted for distribution losses AND the net energy delivered (generation, imports and exports) adjusted for transmission losses
Sources of UFE include metering errors, invalid profiles, loss errors, unreported load or generation, etc.
UFE is also referred to as residual load
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MISO calculation for Balancing Area UFE
(BA_BLL_MTR + NAIBA + BA_LOSS ) * (-1)
Where BA_BLL_MTR = Sum of all asset Commercial Node
meter data within the given Balancing Authority Area. Injections are represented by negative values and load by positive values
NAIBA = The Net Actual Interchange. A positive value represents energy flowing out of the area while a negative value represents energy flowing into the area
BA_LOSS = The transmission losses for the given Balancing Authority Area. Losses are positive values
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MISO rules for UFE allocation
MISO recommends “that Balancing Authorities be responsible for allocating UFE to all load serving entities on a Balancing Authority Area load ratio share or other fair and equitable allocation methodology”
UFE may be allocated to each Retail CP Node using a load ratio share methodology
There is no single approach to allocating UFE
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Assigning UFE to load owners
MISO performs this calculation and allocates all of the UFE to a Residual Load Owner
For Market Participants submitting load to MISO, it may be beneficial to calculate and allocate UFE prior to data submittal
If actual reads are adjusted to account for UFE prior to submittal to MISO, the MISO UFE calculation should yield little to no UFE
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Scalar and interval meters
Scalar meters are cumulative meters generally read once per month
If interval meters are working properly, interval meters will have negligible impact on UFE
Scalar usage is profiled to determine the necessary interval values using a process called profile application
Most of deviation resulting in UFE is thought to be due to profile application of scalar usage
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Definitions (slide 1)
Profile Creation ─ The creation of shape and volume profiles generally via sample interval meters
Profile Application ─ Applying the shape from a profile to scalar usage to convert the scalar usage to interval data
Usage Estimation ─ The estimating of scalar usage for scalar meters, or interval usage for interval meters, when no actuals exist for a given time period and that period is prior to the system date and time
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Definitions (slide 2)
Usage Forecasting ─ The forecasting of usage for a time period that is after the system date and time
Dynamic Profile Creation ─ Using historic data in a modeling process like regression to directly produce an interval estimate for a scalar meter for the settlement period
Dynamic Profile Creation generally takes a profile from the Profile Creation process as an input
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Profiling techniques are dependent on the available data
Actual readings available for settlement day
No readings for settlement day, but historical readings are available
No readings for any period (e.g. new construction)
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Nine main data states for profiling
There are many more possible data states, e.g., a read or profile exists for part of the settlement period
Profile Exists for
History and for
Settlement Period
Profile Exists for
History but not for
Settlement Period
Profile Does Not
Exist
Profile Data State
Read
Data
S
tate
Read for Settlement Period
Historical Read but No Read for Settlement
Period
No read
Profile Exists for History and for Settlement
Period
Profile Exists for History but
not for Settlement
Period
Profile Does Not Exist
Read for Settlement
PeriodScenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 7
Historical Read but No Read
for Settlement Period
Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 8
No read Scenario 5 Scenario 6 Scenario 9
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Illustration of primary calculation approach for Scenario 1
For each interval in the settlement period, (profile value for interval / total profile for the start and stop of the meter read) * the meter read consumption value
Feb MarSystem
Date Existing Profile
Meter Reads
Settlement PeriodX
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Estimating meter consumption
Regression ─ Regression against one or more independent variables
Proxy Day ─ Historical usage from the most like day in history based on the shape, volume, day type and/or other attributes; typically used when regression not viable
Like Day ─ The avg of historical usage for like days (e.g. day type and season); more commonly used for forecasting
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Profile shape is not accurate for a given day and/or for hours across that day
Usage may have to be estimated and the estimate will almost always never be 100%
Arguably not profile application error but usage estimation error compounds profile accuracy error
Reasons for profile application error
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Allocating UFE to all meters by LRS
MDMAs can generally estimate the UFE % within a tight tolerance
The simplest approach is spreading UFE across all scalar and interval meters
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It is generally accepted that most UFE is the result of inaccuracies from profile application
Therefore an approach is to assign all UFE to scalar meters
Allocating UFE only to scalar meters
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Side by side view
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Financial impact of allocating UFE via these two different approaches
Assuming 68,000 meters with avg 50 kW peak demand and avg 60% load factor
Assuming average LMP = $60/MWh
Multiplying by 8760 hours
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Wrap-up
MISO allows Market Participants to allocate UFE in different ways
Market Participants can adjust their meter reads by the estimated UFE and provide those adjusted values to MISO
A common approach for allocating UFE is to allocate all UFE to scalar meters based on load ratio share
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Contact the organizers
For any additional information, please do not hesitate to contact the organizers
Devi Paulsen
Spintelligent Phone: 888 559 8017 (US)[email protected]
www.american-utility-week.com