Alfalah report

7/27/2019 Alfalah report

1/6

The KSE 100 witnessed heightened volality last month, rst appreciang by 4.9% to 23,242 points by

mid-September, and then taking a sharp 1,400 point dive to close at 21,832 points, down 6.1% from

the mid-month high. On a m-o-m basis the KSE 100 was down 328 points (1.5%), with slightly higher

volumes of 214.74 million shares average daily turnover (up 6.7%).

Aggressive US stance against the Syrian government with increasing chances of a military strike caused

jiers in internaonal markets. Addionally, the KSE was also impacted by the recent weakness of the

PKR versus the USD, the unexpected 50 bps increase in the policy discount rate, and the SBP move to

peg minimum deposit rates to the policy discount rate, which saw the share prices of banks being par-

cularly hard hit.

For any information on any of the Alfalah GHPFunds, please contact 021-111-090-090.

September 2013

In the T-Bill aucon held on September 18, against a pre aucon target of PKR 250.00 billion bids worth

PKR 648.51 billion were received, with no parcipaon in the 12 months tenor. The government raised

PKR 506.16 billion through this aucon. Cut o yields on 3 and 6 months T -Bills increased from the pre-

vious aucon in the aermath of 50 bps hike in discount rate. Yield on 3 months T-Bill seled at

9.4114% while 6 months at 9.4500%.

Through the PIBs aucon held on September 25, the government raised PKR 16.09 billion against a pre

aucon target of PKR 50 billion. The cut o yield on benchmark 10 years PIB seled at 12.5995%.

6 month KIBOR during the month moved in the range of 8.99% - 9.51%.

Sept13 Aug13 Change0.00 0.00 NA

0.00 0.00 NA

103.15 71.65 43.96%

4.95 11.28%

5,184.96 5,514.21 -5.97%

214.74

201.27

6.69%

7.68 8.73 -12.03%

Inaon for the month of Sep. 13 (YoY) showed an increase of 7.4% against 8.5% recorded in Aug. 13,

m-o-m inaon was decreased by 0.3% against the increase of 1.2% last month. Core inaon has in-

creased by 8.7% in Sep. 13 against 8.5% in Aug. 13. Overall, year to date FY14 (JulSep) CPI is 8.06%

against 9.14% in the same period last year.

Current Account Decit for the 2MFY14 was USD 632 million against the surplus of USD 582 million

during the same period last year. The trade decit for the same period meanwhile, stood at USD 2.85

billion against USD 2.6 billion during the same period last year.

5.50

The governments desire to bring the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to the negoang table have

not borne fruit thus far as the TTP seems least interested in pursuing a reconciliatory path. Last month

saw a further deterioraon in the law in order situaon with a massive bombing of a church in Pesha-

war, and mulple aacks on law enforcement agency personnel, one of which resulted in the deaths of

a Major General and a Colonel.

Even with the benet of polical stability, the government is struggling to deliver in the two areas

where immediate results are crucial, i.e., the law and order situaon, and the power crises. Despite a

massive increase in borrowing from the central bank in order to clear the circular debt, the problem

remains as a large gap between the cost of generang electricity and the amount recovered from cus-

tomers means that circular debt builds up faster than the government can clear the accumulated debt.

Note: Provisioning Policy of Alfalah GHP Funds isplaced on the website of AGIML.


2/6

Open Ended

Asset Allocation

PKR 502.49 mn

PKR 53.92

CDC Trustee

E&Y Ford Rhodes

2.00%

5.00%

Oct 29, 2005

50%KSE100+50%6M K

Mon-Fri: 5 pm,

Forward Pricing

AM3

N/A

PACRA

Moderate to High

A. Aziz Anis, CFAAther H. MedinaZeeshan Khalil

Sep 30, 2013

Sep 2013

Sep1323.32%

YTD FY14Aug 13Sep 13-0.94%-7.66%-0.97%AGVF

D.G.Khan Cement Company Ltd

Adamjee Insurance Co. Ltd.

Nishat Mills Limited

Pakistan Petroleum Limited

Pakistan State Oil Co. Ltd.

Tariq Glass Limited

Lucky Cement Limited

Oil & Gas Development Co.

Arif Habib Coporation Ltd.

Maple Leaf Cement Co. Ltd.

7.7%

7.4%

7.4%

7.2%

6.9%

6.1%

5.6%

5.5%

4.4%

4.3%

19.7%

17.5%

8.4%

7.5%

7.4%

22.5%

20.4%

8.0%

4.7%

8.0%

Oil & Gas

Construction & Material

Personal Goods

Banks

Non-life Insurance

During Sep, the funds NAV decreased by 0.97% versus a decrease of 0.35% in its benchmark. During FY14,the funds NAV has decreased by 0.94% versus an increase of 3.12% in its benchmark during the same peri-od.

Your fund reduced its overall equity exposure from 85.0% to 74.34% by booking profits. The major exposurewas reduced in Chemicals sector from 12.6% to 6.5%, in Fixed -Line Telecom sector from 4.6% to 0.9%, inConstruction & Material sector from 20.4% to 17.5%, and in Oil & Gas sector from 22.5% to 19.7%.

0.00%

74.34%

2.34%

Aug1312.52%

0.00%

85.00%

1.7%

0.78%

0.00%

Sep13 Aug13

Agritech Limited (0%)

TFC- IV issue

-

5,705

-

5,705

-

-

-

-

-

-

The Scheme has maintained provisions against Workers Welfare Funds liability to the tune ofRs. 0.00 (FY 14). If the same were not made the NAV per unit/return of theScheme would be higher by Rs. 0.00 / 0.00% (FY 14). For details investors are advised to read the note Nine (9) of the latest Financial Statements of the Scheme.

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

02-Jul-13

12-Jul-13

22-Jul-13

01-Aug-13

11-Aug-13

21-Aug-13

31-Aug-13

10-Sep-13

20-Sep-13

30-Sep-13

AGVF (FY'14 YTD) BM-0.94% 3.12%


3/6

September 2013

Open Ended

Agg. Fixed Income

PKR 340.023 mln

PKR 48.2353

CDC Trustee

E&Y Ford Rhodes

1.25%

3.00%

June 15, 2007

12 Month KIBOR

Mon-Fri: 5 pm,

Forward Pricing

AM3

BBB (f)

PACRA

High


Sep. 30, 2013

Sep 133.05%

9.72%21.81%

9.55%7.47%FY14 Simple Annualized

For the month of Sep. 2013, the funds NAV increased by 21.81% (annualized) against the benchmark return of 9.72% p.a., thus outperform-ing the benchmark by 12.09%. During the month the fund received principal outstanding and accrued mark up on the two securities previous-ly recorded on the impaired values. Allocation of fund remained almost unchanged as compared to last month. Going forward, we intend toincrease our exposure in quality corporate papers, while maintaining a significant exposure in government securities.

12.69%

5.97%

Aug 131.72%

14.18%

6.09%

78.01%

0.79 Yrs

MoM Simple Annualized

.

78.29%

TThe Scheme has maintained provisions against Workers Welfare Funds liability to the tune ofRs. 128,264.98 (FY 14). If the same were not made the NAV per unit/returnof the Scheme would be higher by Rs. 0.02 / 0.15% (FY 14). For details investors are advised to read the note Nine (9) of the latest Financial Statements of the Scheme.

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

2-

Jul-13

12-

Jul-13

22-

Jul-13

1-A

ug-13

11-A

ug-13

21-A

ug-13

31-A

ug-13

10-S

ep-13

20-S

ep-13

30-S

ep-13

AGIMF (FY'14 YTD) 12M Kibor1.88% 2.41%

Annualised Returns (FY'14 YTD )

AGIML 7.47%

BM 9.55%


4/6

Sep 2013

Open Ended

Islamic Asset Alloc.

PKR 346.20mn

PKR 58.24

CDC Trustee

E&Y Ford Rhodes

2.00%

5.00%

Sep 04, 2007

50%KMI 30+50%6M DR

Mon-Fri: 5 pm,

Forward Pricing

AM3

N/A

PACRA

Moderate to High


Sep 30, 2013

Sep13

28.00%

YTD FY14Aug 13Sep 13

-0.82%-6.38%-1.70%AGIF

Pakistan Petroleum Limited

Pakistan State Oil Company Ltd.

Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited

D.G. Khan Cement Company

Lucky Cement Limited


The Hub Power Company Ltd.

Oil & Gas Development Co.

Bankislami Pakistan Limited

12.9%

10.5%

10.3%

9.2%

8.7%

7.4%

6.3%

4.1%

3.0%

27.5%

17.9%

10.3%

7.4%

6.3%

29.6%

20.0%

7.3%

4.8%

6.5%

Oil & Gas

Construction & Material

Chemicals

Personal Goods

Electricity

During Sep, the funds NAV decreased by 1.70% versus a decrease of 1.22% in its benchmark. During FY14,the funds NAV has decreased by 0.82% versus an increase of 0.93% in its benchmark during the same peri-od.

Your fund reduced its overall equity exposure from 77.16% to 70.27% by booking profits. The major exposurewas reduced in Fixed Line Telecom. sector from 8.4% to Nil, in Oil & Gas sector from 29.6% to 27.5% and inConstruction & Material sector from 20.0% to 17.9%.

0.00%

70.27%

1.74%

Aug13

21.80%

0.00%

77.16%

1.04%

Sep13 Aug13

- - -

-

-

-

-

-

The Scheme has maintained provisions against Workers Welfare Funds liability to the tune of Rs. 0.00- (FY 14). If the same were not made the NAV per unit/return of theScheme would be higher by Rs. 0.00 / 0.00% (FY 14). For details investors are advised to read the note Nine (9) of the latest Financial Statements of the Scheme.

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2-Jul-13

12-Jul-13

22-Jul-13

1-Aug-13

11-Aug-13

21-Aug-13

31-Aug-13

10-Sep-13

20-Sep-13

30-Sep-13

AGIF (FY'14 YTD) BM

-0.82% 0.93%


5/6

Sep 2013

Open Ended

Stock Fund

PKR 110.71 mn

PKR 57.90

CDC Trustee

E&Y Ford Rhodes

1.75%

5.00%

Sep 09, 2008

KSE 100

Mon-Fri: 5 pm,

Forward Pricing

AM3

N/A

PACRA

Moderate to High


Sep 30, 2013

Sep1310.47%

YTD FY14Aug 13Sep 131.90%-7.54%-0.03%AGAF

Tariq Glass Limited

Arif Habib Coporation Ltd.

D.G.Khan Cement Company Ltd.

The Hub Power Company Ltd.


The Bank of Punjab

Askari Bank Limited

Adamjee Insurance Co. Ltd.

National Bank of Pakistan

Pakistan State Oil Company Ltd.

9.8%

9.2%

8.6%

8.6%

8.4%

8.0%

6.9%

6.7%

6.7%

6.3%

24.8%

11.0%

10.2%

9.9%

9.8%

26.4%

17.4%

12.7%

9.7%

10.0%

Banks

Chemicals

Oil & Gas

Personal Goods

Household Goods

During Sep, the funds NAV decreased by 0.03% versus a decrease of 1.48% in its benchmark. During FY14,the funds NAV has increased by 1.90% versus an increase of 3.94% in its benchmark during the same peri-od.

Your fund reduced its overall equity exposure from 91.77% to 85.16% by booking profit in those scrips whichachieved their short term price targets. The major exposure was reduced in Fixed-Line Telecom sector from8.4% to Nil, in Chemical sector from 17.4% to 11.0%, and in Oil & Gas sector from 12.7% to 10.2%, whileexposure was increased in Electricity sector from Nil to 8.6%.

85.16%

4.37%

Aug135.73%

91.77%

2.50%

Sep13 Aug13

The Scheme has maintained provisions against Workers Welfare Funds liability to the tune of Rs. 38,959.29 (FY 14). If the same were not made the NAV per unit/returnof the Scheme would be higher by Re. 0.02 / 0.03% (FY 14). For details investors are advised to read the note Nine (9) of the latest Financial Statements of the Scheme.

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

2-Jul-13

12-Jul-13

22-Jul-13

1-Aug-13

11-Aug-13

21-Aug-13

31-Aug-13

10-Sep-13

20-Sep-13

30-Sep-13

AGAF (FY'14 YTD) KSE 1001.90% 3.94%


6/6

September 2013

Open Ended

Money Market

PKR 2,969.40 mln

PKR 500.33

MCBFSL

KPMG Taseer Hadi

1.00%

N/A

Mar 12, 2010

70% 3M PKRV +

Mon-Fri: 11 am,

Forward Pricing

AM3

AA (f)

PACRA

Low


Sep. 30, 2013

Sep 13

2.99%

6.50%MoM (Simp. Ann.)

6.43%FY 14Simp. Annualized

The fund earned an annualized return of 7.01% p.a. during the month versus the benchmark return of 6.50% p.a., thus outperforming thebenchmark by 0.51%. The exposure in T-Bills has reduced to 80.10% from 98.94% due to diversion of funds from t -bills to term deposits.Going forward, we will continue our cautious approach in allocation towards government securities and placements in terms of rates andduration.

0.18%

Aug 13

1.64%

98.94%

-0.58%

80.10%

42 Days

30% 3M DR-Exp.

7.11%

7.01%

The Scheme has maintained provisions against Workers Welfare Funds liability to the tune ofRs. 1,090,713.73/- (FY 14). If the same were not made the NAV per unit/return of the Scheme would be higher by Rs. 0.18 / 0.15% (FY 14). For details investors are advised to read the note Ten (10) of the latest Financial Statements of theScheme.

16.73%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2-J

ul-13

12-Jul-13

22-Jul-13

1-Au

g-13

11-Au

g-13

21-Au

g-13

31-Au

g-13

10-Se

p-13

20-Se

p-13

30-Se

p-13

AGCF (FY'14 YTD) BM1.79% 1.62%

Simple Annu alised Return (FY'14 YTD)

AGCF 7.11 %BM 6.43%

Alfalah report

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