AlexChausovsky_Inside3DPrintingSingapore_2015

Information | Analytics | Expertise

© 2014 IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

THE IMPACT OF 3D PRINTING ON INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURING INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE

JANUARY 28, 2015

ALEX CHAUSOVSKY SENIOR PRINCIPAL ANALYST

INDUSTRIAL AUTOMATION

+1 (512) 582 2012

[email protected]

© 2014 IHS

Contents

About IHS 3

CapEx, Machinery Production and Automation Equipment Overview 6

3D Printing Technology and Capabilities Overview 11

The Threats and Opportunities for 3D Printing in Industrial Manufacturing 23

INSIDE 3D PRINTING CONFERENCE - SINGAPORE

© 2014 IHS

Alex Chausovsky Manager & Principal Analyst

IHS Technology – Industrial Automation

Shaping the Future with Super-Efficient Electric Motors

February 27th, 2014

• Introduction to IHS

• Introduction to Electric Motors and Industrial Energy Efficiency

• Industrial Motors Market Update

About IHS

© 2014 IHS

IHS - Leading information, advanced analytics and deep expertise

IHS Since 1959

Headquartered in

Englewood, CO

(traded on the NYSE)

8,000+ colleagues

in 30+ countries

speaking 50+ languages

Serve businesses and

governments in 165+

countries worldwide

70% of the US Fortune 1000

85% of the Global Fortune 500

Small businesses & enterprises

IHS is supported by 140+ offices around the world

United States United Kingdom Canada India Singapore Malaysia

China France Germany Switzerland Poland Japan Belarus Brazil

South Korea Russian Federation United Arab Emirates Norway Australia

Spain South Africa Mexico Hong Kong Netherlands Thailand

Taiwan Italy Denmark Sweden


© 2014 IHS

IHS Business Lines

• Economics

• Country Risk

• Operational Excellence

and Risk Management

• Product Design

• Supply Chain

• Aerospace & Defense

• Automotive

• Chemicals

• Technology

• Energy

• Financial Services

• Maritime


© 2014 IHS

Alex Chausovsky Manager & Principal Analyst

IHS Technology – Industrial Automation

Shaping the Future with Super-Efficient Electric Motors

February 27th, 2014

• Introduction to IHS

• Introduction to Electric Motors and Industrial Energy Efficiency

• Industrial Motors Market Update

CapEx, Machinery Production and Automation Equipment Updates

© 2014 IHS

CapEx Analysis Improved Macroeconomic Performance

Government Investment

Profits for End-Users

Transport & Defence Budgets

Consumer and

Business Spending

Capital Expenditure

Spend in 2014

5.7% Growth

Machinery

Production

Automation Products

substantial portion in MP

Automation Products

Direct to End-Users

(Retrofit)

Building, Land,

Services & Other

5% Of Spend

52% Of Spend

43% Of Spend

$3.8 Trillion


© 2014 IHS

Americas Europe Asia Pacific World % of world total

CAGR

(2012-2018)

Agricultural Machinery 11.1% 7.4%$51.5bn $78.7bn

Food, Beverage & Tobacco Machinery 3.3% 4.4%$7.8bn $14.6bn

Furnaces & Furnace Burners 1.3% 4.8%$4.4bn $9.4bn

Machine Tools 6.2% 2.0%$6.9bn $56.5bn

Materials Handling 12.9% 5.5%$21.6bn $93.4bn

Packaging Machinery 2.7% 5.5%$4.6bn $14.2bn

Paper & Paperboard Machinery 1.3% 1.3%$3.0bn $6.0bn

Printing Machinery 1.3% 1.9%$3.1bn $6.1bn

Robotics 0.8% 2.4%$1.7bn $6.7bn

Rubber & Plastics Machinery 2.5% 2.3%$5.0bn $13.2bn

Semiconductor Machinery 2.2% 2.4%$10.6bn $17.6bn

Textile Machinery 2.5% 2.5%$1.0bn $23.4bn

Woodworking Machinery 0.8% 2.4%$1.3bn $3.6bn

$5.9bn

$13.9bn

$7.8bn

Trend Line

(2012 -2018)

$81.6bn

$21.9bn

$10.1bn

$11.4bn

$4.5bn

$19.6bn

$38.4bn

$27.2bn

$6.6bn

$30.8bn

MACHINERY PRODUCTION SUMMARY

≈ $170B

≈ $50B

≈ $95B

≈ $197B

≈ $40B

≈ $38B

≈ $34B

≈ $38B

≈ $1.7 Trillion of Machinery produced in 2014


© 2014 IHS

MACHINERY PRODUCTION BY REGION

Americas Europe Asia Pacific

2013

$330bn $500bn $691bn

2018 $400bn $599bn $988bn

32.9%

21.7%45.4%

% of 2013 global machinery production


© 2014 IHS

2014 Key Point Summary – Industrial Automation

$185.3b 2014 Equipment Revenue

28.8%

Automation Equipment 31.1%

Motors & Motor Controls 40.1%

Power Transmission Equipment

2014 Regional Sales Growth

Americas

6.9%

EMEA

4.3%

Asia

7.7%

Japan

5.4%

2014 Market Drivers

45% IAE Sales into

Discrete Manufacturing

Machinery Production

6.3% Growth

41% IAE Sales into

Process Manufacturing

Capital Expenditure

5.4% Growth

3.1% Global GDP

Growth

$47.4 billion Motors

$31.8 billion Discrete Controllers

$26.9 billion Motor Controls

$36.5 billion Linear & Fluid Products


© 2014 IHS

3D Printing Technology and Capabilities Overview

© 2014 IHS

The Impact of 3D Printing Technology A Transformative Manufacturing Process

3D Printing, also called Additive Manufacturing, “adds” materials to create

products, rather than “subtracting” them as is typical in traditional

manufacturing processes. This presents significant potential cost savings to

manufacturers that invest in the technology.

Products are designed using complex computer software platforms and

are then printed layer by layer, allowing for features that were not

possible with traditional machine or human manufacturing techniques.

Currently, the biggest drawbacks for 3D Printing are size and speed

limitations, which prevent the technology from replacing many assembly line

manufacturing processes.

Although the technology has existed since the 1980s, 3D Printing has really gone

mainstream in the last five years. Some industries that the technology has

penetrated include:

Consumer Products: Clothing, Shoes, Jewelry, Toys, Home Décor, Electronics

Medical Products: Joint Replacements, Prosthetics, Crowns / Invisalign Braces

Industrial Products: Tools, Molds, Fuel Injection Nozzles, Gas Turbine Parts, Pumps

What benefits and drawbacks does 3D Printing technology

have compared to traditional manufacturing techniques?


© 2014 IHS

Overview of 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing Technologies

Vat Photopolymerization: Stereolithography (SLA), Digital Light Processing (DLP)

• Liquid photopolymers, either plastics or wax, are selectively cured, normally using UV light.

Powder Bed Fusion: Selective Laser Sintering (SLS), Direct Metal Laser Sintering (DMLS),

Selective Heat Sintering (SHS) and Electron Beam Melting (EBM)

• Thermal energy (lasers) used to fuse materials, either metals or plastics, in a powder bed.

Directed Energy Deposition: Laser Metal Deposition (LMD)

• Thermal energy (lasers) used to fuse materials, either metals or plastics, as they are

deposited

Binder Jetting: Powder Bed and Inkjet Head (PBIH), Plaster-based Printing (PP)

• Metal or plastic powders bound together using a specialized glue and then cured in an

oven for post processing.


© 2014 IHS

Overview of 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing Technologies

Material Extrusion: Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM), Fused Filament Fabrication (FFF)

• Two plastic cords (build & support material) extruded through a heated nozzle that melts

the plastic and traces out a pattern. FDM is the basis for most home-use systems.

Material Jetting: Multi-jet Modeling (MJM)

• Droplets of plastic build material are selectively deposited on a platform and cured by UV

light.

Sheet Lamination: Ultrasonic Consolidation (UC), Laminated Object Manufacturing (LOM)

• Older technology in which sheets of material - paper, plastic or metal - are bonded

together to form an object.

Coming in 2016: Hewlett Packard’s Multi Jet Fusion (MJF) technology


© 2014 IHS

Implementation of

3D printing

technology into our

everyday lives, both

personal and

business

Integration of 3D

printing technology with

traditional manufacturing

processes, materials and

software

Invention of

technology and

development of first

hardware prototype

1987 2010 2025

Metals & other industrial materials

Wide Adoption by

Consumers & Businesses

Industrial Manufacturing

Medical and

Biotechnology

Applications

Titanium, Stainless Steel

Nickel and Cobalt Chrome Alloys

Aluminum, Gold, Inconel

Epoxy resins, Ceramics, Sand

Carbon Fiber (new)

Plastics

ABS, Nylon, PLA, HIPS

Polycarbonates

Glass-filled Polyamide

Photopolymers and Wax

Time

Tech

no

log

y

Cap

ab

ilit

ies

~2000

The Impact of 3D Printing Technology

Biomaterials

Moldable Polymers

Human Cells and Tissues

Synthetic Tissues

Rapid

Prototyping

2020


© 2014 IHS

• Increases design innovation by creating new structures and shapes; engineers are

able to take an idea, create a CAD model, and have a part in their hands by the next

day. They are then able to see exactly how it fits into the piece of equipment they are

building. It also improves the design process by allowing for new combinations of

materials.

• Speeds up time to market by making the idea to prototype cycle much shorter.

Necessary adjustments to prototypes are made quickly and new prototypes are

printed within hours or days, which really speeds up the entire design process.

• Reduces development costs and waste by using less materials, and increases

personalization of products for customers, without additional cost increases.

• Reverse-engineering of old, outdated parts is possible through digital scanning. The

part might be 20 years old and there was never a CAD model for it. The engineers can

scan it, turn it into a CAD model and then 3D print it and have complete repeatability.

The Impact of 3D Printing Technology


© 2014 IHS

Expiring Patents

• In 2009, expiration of several foundation patents for Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM)

enabled the emergence of lower-cost desktop printers from companies like Makerbot,

as well as consumer-facing 3D printer service providers such as Shapeways.

• Another major shift occurring as foundation patents on other 3D printing technologies

expire, lowering costs for Stereolithography (SLA), Selective Laser Sintering (SLS),

and 3DP from MIT, and widening the range of capabilities available to users.

• Patents on selective laser melting (SLM) expires in late 2016.

• This is resulting in increased competition among SLA, SLS, other printer suppliers as

new entrants penetrate the market in the coming years.


© 2014 IHS

Market Data: 3D Printing Industry Growth Projections

Source: IHS Technology (January 2015)


Revenue Forecast for the 3D Printing Industry from 2014 to 2020

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Y2014 Y2015 Y2016 Y2017 Y2018 Y2019 Y2020

Consumer Systems and Parts Industrial Systems and Parts Service Providers Materials Tooling

Re

ven

ue

s($

B)

© 2014 IHS

Market Data: Additive Manufacturing Value by Sector

Source: IHS Technology (January 2015)

Automotive, 16.0%

Aerospace, 14.0%

Industrial, 19.0%Consumer Products & Electronics, 21.0%

Medical & Dental, 12.0%

Academia, 7.0%

Military & Defense, 8.0%

Architecture, 2.0% Other, 1.0%

Additive Manufacturing Sales by Sector2014 Projections


© 2014 IHS

Suppliers – Industrial Grade 3D Printers

• 3D Systems*

• Arcam*

• Beijing Tiertime*

• Carima

• CMET

• Concept Laser

• DWS

• EOS*

• Envisiontec*

• ExOne*

• Mcor*

• Optomec

• Rapid Shape

• Shaanxi Hengtong

• SLM Solutions

• Stratasys*

• Voxeljet*

• Wuhan Binhu

* Top printer manufacturers own over 40% of the 3D printer market,

and more than 90% of the industrial grade 3D printer market.


© 2014 IHS

• Hewlett Packard

• Canon

• Epson

• Xerox

• 3M

• Google

• Microsoft

• Apple

• Samsung

• IBM

• Amazon

Big Names Getting Involved in the Industry

Traditional 2D printer manufacturers

that are planning on entering the market

in the near future.

These players have deep pockets and

a lot of expertise in printing technology.

They are focusing on addressing the

current limitations of the technology,

namely speed, size and cost issues.


© 2014 IHS

3D Printing Challenges and Limitations

• Prohibitive Printer and Materials Costs

• Speed and Size limitations

• Intellectual Property Concerns

• Environmental Impact

• Effect on Traditional Manufacturing Jobs

• Required Certifications for Medical/Aerospace


© 2014 IHS

Threat: Replacement of MT and Plastics Machinery

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Metal Cutting Machines Metal Forming Machines Plastic Machinery

Revenues (

$M

) U

nit V

olu

me

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Metal Cutting Machines 428337 440899 474609 424814 448071 472149 497251 521029

Metal Forming Machines 532374 512743 506927 535857 573819 612734 654446 694128

Plastic Machinery 291526 298168 309413 320246 350020 381353 415081 448435

Total 1252237 1251809 1290949 1280917 1371910 1466236 1566778 1663592


© 2014 IHS

Threat: Replacement of MT and Plastics Machinery

Motors & Drives, 18%

Mechanics for Electric Drive Systems, 14%

Pneumatics, 7%

Hydraulic Drives & Valves, 9%

Linear & Rotary Handling, 9%

Automation & Motion Control Products, 26%

Machine Safety Products, 1%

Low Voltage Products, 7%

Machine Vision Products, 1%

Sensors, 8%

Automation Product BreakdownMachine Tools and Plastics Machinery


© 2014 IHS

Opportunity and Threat in One: Hybrid & Large Scale

Above: DMG MORI’s LASERTEC 65 3D

Right: Sciaky’s EBAM AM System

Others: Mazak Integrex i-400AM, etc.

Image Source: Sciaky Image Source: DMG MORI


© 2014 IHS

Opportunity: Increased Sales of Automation Components

More than 70,000 personal 3D printers

were sold in 2013. This number is

expected to grow to over 100,000 this

year, and rapidly over the next

decade. Each printer contains one or

more electric motors.

There were nearly 10,000 industrial

grade 3D printers sold in 2013. The

potential for future growth in industrial

applications exceeds that of the

consumer space. Each machine has

multiple servo motors.


© 2014 IHS

Opportunity: Production of Automation Equipment using Additive Manufacturing Systems

Nearly 50 million low voltage motors

were made in 2013. The leading motor

manufacturers are experimenting with

potentially using additive manufacturing

techniques in the future.

Industrial electronics, such as variable

speed drives, represent a large and

rapidly growing market. In 2013, nearly

20 million drives were sold worldwide.

With the advent of 3D printed circuitry,

will it be possible to print drive parts?


© 2014 IHS

Alex Chausovsky

Senior Principal Analyst

Industrial Automation

IHS Technology

+1 512 582 2012

[email protected]

Thank you very much!


mailto:[email protected]

AlexChausovsky_Inside3DPrintingSingapore_2015

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