Åldrande befolkning --- en fördelningsfråga

Ageing in Sweden and its economic consequences: a choice of futures.

ldrande befolkning---en frdelningsfrgaThomas Lindh, Linnuniversitetet och IF

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1DiskussionsfrgorDe flesta gr igenom livets alla stadier. Vad ska man d mena med rttvisa mellan generationer?

Framtidens generationer r vldigt mnga och hur framtiden kommer att te sig om 100 r omjligt att frutsga. Hur ska d sdan rttvisa stadkommas?DispositionLgesbeskrivning Sveriges ldrandeFakta och mjligheterDemografi och ekonomi jmviktssystemHur pverkar demografi ekonominDemografi och framtidenPrognoser och globala perspektivUnderstanding how to adjust economic policy with respect to future demographic change will be a crucial question for policy makers in the aging industrial countries Alvin Hansen AER 1939, presidential address at AEA.

Lgesbeskrivning: Sveriges ldrandeDen ekonomiska politikens anpassningmjligheterBefolkningsandel 65+ (FN WPP)

SverigeEuropaItalienBeroendekvoter (0-19+65+/20-64), skattningar och projektioner (FN WPP)

Svenska ldersgrupper (SCB)2005 2015

GenerationsvxlingenNuvarande krisen?Risk scenarioUpptagenhet med att hlla statsskulden lg medfr minskande investeringar i offentlig konsumtion och verfringar mellan generationer.Drmed frsmrade framtidsutsikter fr de stora ungdomskullarna. Drigenom undermineras den framtida skattebasen och utsikterna fr framtida vlfrd fr den ldre befolkningenMjligheterOffensiva investeringar inom offentlig sektor fr att frbttra och expandera utbildningssektornfr att snabba upp arbetsmarknadsintrde och familjebildande och ka rekryteringen till vrd och utbildningstjnsterIntergenerationella verfringarDen grundlggande hllbarhetsfrgan fr varje samhlle r reproduktionReproduktion krver omfrdelning frn aktiva vuxna till beroende ldersgrupperldrande str balansen i omfrdelningssystemetOavsett om familjebaserat, individualiserat (ln och sparande) eller offentligt frmedlat

Drfr mste politiken variera med demografinNormpolitik suboptimalVad r NTA?Konsumtion arbetsinkomst = netto off o priv verfringar + + kapitalinkomster - sparande Livscykelunderskott: verfringar och kapitalbaserade omfrdelningar (kp och frsljningar av kapitaltillgngar, ln och utlning, kapitalinkomster och sparande). Frmedlat genom privata eller offentliga institutioner, t ex familj, stat, landsting och kommuner, finansiella institutioner och vlgrenhet.

-1-0.500.511.50102030405060708090+AgeNormaliserad med genomsnitttlig arbetsinkomst 30-49 sterrike (2000)Sverige (2003)USA (2003)Sverige: sen sjlvfrsrjning, sent beroendesterrike tvrtom och USA sen frsrjning tidigt beroendeLivscykelunderskott per capitaKlla: NTA projektet 200713Check this

Klla:Robson & Kaplan (2003)Mns bidrag till konsumtionen och deras egen konsumtionLngst ner samma fr schimpanshanarKvinnors bidrag till konsumtionen och deras egen konsumtionLngst ner samma fr schimpanshonorTransfereringar Sverige 2003 per capita och aggregeratNational Transfer Accounts hemsida http://www.ntaccounts.org/

Offentliga transfereringarUt: skatt, soc avg In: off kons o transfereringarKapitalmarknadsomfrdelningInflden: Krediter, kapitalinkomst, arvPrivata transfereringarInom o mellan hushllInvesteringar i framtida humankapitalAvgrande fr hllbarheten i de ldres vlfrd. Humankapitalets livscykel varierar mellan lnder.Takten i ldrandet varierar mellan lnderDe ekonomiska och sociala konsekvenserna varierar ocks.Demografiska frndringar frndrar de ekonomiska jmvikterna.Politiska tgrder har mycket olika tidshorisonter.ven om trenderna r gemensamma blir detaljerna avgrande fr nr och hur politiska tgrder br sttas in.Tre valbara scenarion:ka den effektiva arbetsstyrkanArbeta lngre: bttre hlsa, snabbare utbildning Arbeta mera: ka arbetstid, minska semesterUtbildning:effektivare, konkurrenskraftig arbetsmarknadsanpassningInvandringArbetsmarknadsintegration:inslussning, utbildningsanpassningka barnafdandet. Familjepolitik:bttre barnomsorg, frldraanpassat arbetsliv och utbildning5-15 rDirekt10-50 r5-25 r25-60 rEkonomiska konsekvenser av ldrandet i Sverige nrmaste decennietSparandet gr nerBudgetbalansen frsmrasInflationstrycket karTillvxten stagnerarHandels- och bytesbalans frsmraskat beroende av den globala ekonominRegionala obalanser frvrraskad omfrdelning ndvndigVsentligen en fljd av kad frsrjningsbrda (inte specifikt de ldre)

Drmed blir den lttaste lsningen att minska fdelsetalen och drigenom rdda vlfrden fr den nuvarande generationen av makthavare

Transfereringar Sverige 2003 per capita och aggregeratNational Transfer Accounts hemsida http://www.schemearts.com/proj/nta/

Offentliga transfereringarKapitalmarknadsomfrdelningPrivata transfereringarDemografin och ekonominEtt jmviktssystemVarfr r ldersfrdelning viktigt?ldersfrdelningen varierar kraftigtDen gr att frutsga relativt vlFrndringar i ldersfrdelningen r korrelerade med ekonomiska och sociala frndringarBiologiska och ekonomiska skl talar fr att dessa korrelationer r relativt stabila ver tiden 21Ett enkelt exempel

Bostadsefterfrgan som andel av BNP

MnstretPrognosenBefolkningsfrndringarna

ven storleksefterfrganTv observationerDe flesta makroekonomiska modeller antar en stabil demografiDen demografiska transitionen implicerar att industrialiserade ekonomier inte kommer i nrheten av en stabil befolkningsfrdelning detta rhundradeDe makrodata vi observerar r frn ekonomier i demografisk ojmvikt.Praktisk ekonometriEnkel OLS:

Barn 0-14Unga vuxna 15-29Mogna vuxna 30-49Medellders 50-64Unga pensionrer 65-74ldre ldre 75+Demografiskt baserade makroprognoser

Vad ldersmodeller inte kan frklara 125Up to the mid 70s financial savings of the consolidated public sector follows the age model fairly well but after 1975 volatility increases strongly as the public sector expands during the end of the 1970s. 1982 this trend turns and as the economy overheats in the end of the 1980s a surplus accumulates. But when the economy turns down in 1990 a considerably larger deficit accumulates leading to drastic cuts in public expenditure. These variations are obviously not predicted but a result of economic policy, first a fiscal expansion of unprecedented magnitude, then devaluing the currency to correct the ensuing cost crisis and restricting public lending to domestic sources. This is successful as the economy becomes stiumulated by the devaluation after a few years, but results in overspending again with a fast correction as the tax base shrinks when the recession hits.

Vad ldersmodeller inte kan frklara 226Between the beginning og the 80s and the beginning of the 90s the large deviation in the national saving rate from age predicted saving is mainly a reflection of public saving but that is no longer the case in the last five years when the current account has turned to a surplus, inflation has more or less disappeared and investment has been relatively low (since residential investment more or less disappeared in the beginning of the 90s when the household forming cohorts diminished rapidly concurrent with the general recession and the balance among retirees shifted from the young to the old.

Extern balanspolitik?Credit squeezeDevaluation 82Float 9227In the current account we can trace the expansion of the government sector that took place partly by increasing foreign debt, and then the policy reversal 1982 as this policy was reversed and external balance became a priority. The overheating however generated a deterioration in the current account well before the economy went into recession and a floating exchange rate regime and a switch to internal balance goals was forced in 1992. The improved current account is very well predicted by age structure. The general impression is that Sweden should have run a current account deficit exactly during the period when policy was preoccupied with external balance goals. Impressionistically we would like to chalk up most of the deviations from age models in the variables to inappropriate policies working against the age structure.Investeringar

28In fact we see how government expansion crowds out investment by debt creation and later recovers in a bubble caused by overheating relative to what age structure could bear. Especially real estate showed signs of overinvestment in this period with very fast price increases. The radical downturn is to a very large extent associated with an almost complete cessation of residential investment.Inflation

29Exccepting the Korea inflation we see that the deviations from the age trend in this case are less clear. The trend increase from 1965 is probably due to the fiscal expansion (that was at least partly motivated the aging population). That trend turned already around 1980 although there was an oscillation of rather large magnitude associated with the overheating and the later recession. Since November 1992 the Central Bank has had an inflation target of 2 percent which has been consistently missed from below for the last four years.Tillvxt

30Growth rates are quite a lot more volatile than the other series but the variation is pretty much around the age predicted trend with the excception of the 85-95 period where it first tends to lie above in the overheating and then sinks below in the recession.ldersprofiler fr olika makroekonomiska variabler

Tillvxt i sysselsttning

Demografi och framtidenBefolkningen br samhllets minnePrognoserldersstruktur speciellt i den ldre befolkningen har stor trghetOberoende projektioner relativt tillfrlitligaMtfel i Sverige relativt sm och variationen i ldersstruktur storKorrelationer relativt stabilaMen det finns gott om skattningsproblemLgfrekvent variation och persistens krver lnga serier

1998 prognos fr byggnadsinvesteringar

Uppdaterad prognos av byggnadsinvesteringarOBS. NRs officiella rssifror finns bara till 2008, kvartalssiffrorna skiljer sig kraftigtSvensk BNP/cap tillvxtuppdatering maj 2010

Frn global panelmodell111 lnder 1950-1998IJoF 2007Svensk tidsseriemodell 1950-2003 JoF 2004

111 lnder 1950-1998IJoF 2007Tidsseriemodell1950-2003 JoF 2004Svensk BNP/cap tillvxtuppdatering nov 2011Backcast of global model 1820-1950

Tre frgestllningar: Nr 11. Bytesbalans och sparande?Bytesbalansen (och handelsbalansen) frsmras nrmaste decennietHushllssparande ingen robust korrelation med demografinVariation i nationella sparkvoten huvudsakligen offentligt sparande

OECD gmsn investeringar och sparandeTre frgestllningar: Nr 2Arbetsutbud och efterfrgan, offentlig och privat.Arbetsutbudet blir generellt mer hgutbildatEfterfrgekning inom offentlig sektor beror p politiska beslut, gller ven offentligt finansierade men privat tillhandahllna varor och tjnsterEn yngre arbetskraft br medfra mer churning och lgre produktivitetstillvxtMed sannolikt kad migration och urbanisering kommer arbetsgivarnas marknadsmakt att minskaRegional mismatch av behov och arbetskraft kommer att kaDen yngre arbetskraftens rrlighet kar men den ldre arbetskraftens rrlighet minskar.Offentlig sektor ldersstigenbehver nyrekrytera

Regionala skillnader kommer att bli stora

Kommunalt sjlvstyre av ldrevrd och skola sannolikt inte hllbartTre frgestllningar: Nr 3Den offentliga sektorns finansiering. Ca 80 % av den offentliga budgeten utgr intergenerationella transfereringarDet gr inte att belgga ngot entydigt samband mellan offentlig sektors storlek och den ekonomiska utvecklingenkade beroendekvoter innebr krav p kad omfrdelningVi blir ocks mer beroende av omvrldenOrganisation av omfrdelningVilket r effektivast?:Offentlig sektor och beskattning (Sverige)Skattekilar, skalfrdelar och frskringIndividuell omfrdelning ver livscykeln och privat sparande (USA)Asymmetrisk information och oskerhet, kad kapitalstockDynastisk omfrdelning och obetalt hushllsarbete (Japan)Knsjmlikhet och fruktsamhetAndelar i ldreverfringar

OffentligFamiljKapital192019401960190019802000020 00040 00060 00080 000100 000120 000140 000160 0000102030405060708090100110+Det svenska ldrandet under frra sekletFNs befolkningsprognos 2015Antal 1000-tal individer i 5-rsklasserAFRIKAASIENLATINAMERIKANORDAMERIKA050 000100 000150 000200 000250 000300 000350 000400 0000-45-910-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495-99100+AfrikaAsienEuropaLatinamerikaNordamerikaEUROPA

Bakgrundsmaterial 1Sustainable Policies in an Ageing Europe. A human capital response. Society and the Future Research Report Series no 3, Institute for Futures Studies, 2006.The impact of ageing on innovation and productivity growth in Europe, Research Report No. 28, Vienna Institute of Demography, 2006The Relationship Between Demographic Change and Economic Growth in the EU, Research Report No. 32, Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences. 2007 http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/download/FB32.pdf Sverige i en ldrande vrld - framtidsperspektiv p den demografiska utvecklingen. Underlagsrapport 13, Globaliseringsrdet, Ministry of Education. 2008 http://www.regeringen.se/download/9d851a65.pdf?major=1&minor=106433&cn=attachmentPublDuplicator_0_attachment some other research.Ladda ned eller bestll rapporter frn www.framtidsstudier.se Bakgrundsmaterial 22009 Lindh, T and Malmberg, B: EU Economic Growth and the Age Structure of the Population. Economic Change and Restructuring, 42(3), 159-187. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10644-008-9057-1 2009 de la Croix, D; Lindh, T and B Malmberg: Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Sweden: 1750-2050, Journal of Macroeconomics 31(1), March, Special Issue: Advances in Historical Macroeconomics. 132-148. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.08.0142008 Lindh T, B Malmberg, Demography and housing demandWhat can we learn from residential construction data?, Journal of Population Economics 21(3), 521-539. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00148-006-0064-0 2008 Lindh T, Urban Lundberg: Predicaments in the futures of aging democracies, Futures 40(3), April, 203-217. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.020 2008 de la Croix, D; Lindh, T and B Malmberg: Swedish Economic Growth and Education Since 1800. Canadian Journal of Economics 41(1), February, 166-185. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.00459.x 2008, Malmberg, B, Lindh, T and M Halvarsson, Productivity consequences of workforce ageing - Stagnation or a Horndal effect? Population and Development Review, Supplement to vol. 34, Population Aging, Human Capital, Accumulation and Productivity Growth, 238-256.2007 Lindh T and B Malmberg, Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050. International Journal of Forecasting Volume 23, Issue 4, October-December 2007, Pages 553-567. Online August 2007 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.07.005 2005, Lindh T, B Malmberg and J Palme, Generations at War or Sustainable Social Policy in Aging Societies, Journal of Political Philosophy 13(4), 470489. (Swedish translation: 2006, Generationskrig eller uthllig socialpolitik i ldrande samhllen? Tidskrift fr politisk filosofi, 10(3), 19-62.)Ladda ned eller bestll rapporter frn www.framtidsstudier.se Bakgrundsmaterial 32010, Dominique Anxo och Thomas Lindh. Vgen ur arbetslsheten (the way out of unemployment) Konjunkturrdets rapport 2010: Rd till en finansminister, SNS Frlag. 11-262009, The Future Needs for Social Investment: Sweden as a Pilot Case. In: N Morel, B Palier and J Palme (eds), What Future for Social Investment? Institute for Futures Studies Research Report 2009/2, chap 8, 131-143. http://www.framtidsstudier.se/filebank/files/20091022$140156$fil$L14XjdAIt31VUstBnU0K.pdf 2007, Lindh, Thomas and Malmberg, Bo Age structure effects on investment, saving and trade. Chapter 7 in: Population aging, intergenerational transfers and the macroeconomy, Robert Clark, Naohiro Ogawa and Andrew Mason (eds). Northampton, USA: Edward Elgar Publishing, 163-191.Ladda ned eller bestll rapporter frn www.framtidsstudier.se Bakgrundsmaterial 42011. Thomas Lindh: Social Investment in the Ageing Populations of Europe. Chapter 10 in Towards a social investment welfare state? Nathalie Morel, Bruno Palier and Joakim Palme (eds). Policy Press, Bristol. 261-2842011, Ronald Lee , Andrew Mason (eds), Population Aging And The Generational EconomyA Global Perspective. Edward Elgar Publishing 2011, Lindh, Thomas, Long-Horizon Growth Forecasting and Demography. Chap 21 in Hendry, David F. and Clements, Michael, Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting. Oxford University Press. 585-606Ladda ned eller bestll rapporter frn www.framtidsstudier.se Diagram1-0.0000000150.04894532090.179580257600.2285255634-0.00000001540.16266307390.189948916800.3526119753-0.00000001490.26891887760.205294380400.47421324310.00000001530.27564901710.218303444200.4939524765-0.00000000860.28662806270.223893491500.51052154560.00000000320.28854103680.22815366400.5166947041-0.0000000110.23479150220.232901582700.4676930739-0.0000000240.32936125550.23862914100.56799037250.00000003440.31745425330.246777222300.5642315101-0.0000000280.2995414990.253491968700.55303343970.0000000310.26335914740.26053349500.52389267330.00000000790.2474327650.26766573400.51509850690.00000003550.24046478630.278079588100.5185444099-0.00000001940.22594923580.2905005400.5164497565-0.00000001720.22502282370.306940470200.5319632767-0.00000001330.21476740160.326909932800.54167732110.00284747970.23781012110.3299492420.01354066710.58414750990.00624130510.22498880010.31396489720.02708132140.57227632380.01862991720.17524276370.27316932720.0406219990.50766400710.0496464303-0.02677014960.20685818320.05416267350.28389713750.08642624-0.06188182490.13070801860.06770332030.22295575390.101257803-0.08249778710.07442694750.08124399490.17443095830.0992863118-0.09644820.0381800510.09478467250.13580283530.0965386182-0.11300260260.02200799810.09478467250.10032868620.0946537225-0.14048338880.00665582270.09495915460.0557853110.0870649672-0.1811698792-0.00569253370.0947224092-0.00507503650.075885287-0.2221996418-0.0174793420.0934026856-0.07039101130.0674152382-0.2583861149-0.03203271140.0912502112-0.13175337690.0598204035-0.2865585106-0.04638558170.0888051901-0.18431849870.0548174068-0.3079886034-0.0624115060.0863999183-0.22918278420.0500185152-0.3251328861-0.07870512160.0840386607-0.26978083170.0510570045-0.3287057913-0.10299447890.0816980004-0.29894526520.0476918609-0.3307090159-0.12466337810.0794981036-0.32818242950.0425221769-0.3325302026-0.14416008250.0776515593-0.3565165490.0428041669-0.3372015658-0.1679634860.0761895567-0.38617132820.041653168-0.3545410943-0.19007462290.0746182976-0.42834425150.0353940348-0.3634305732-0.20584958220.0724765101-0.46140961050.0333428372-0.3719152252-0.22217233630.0695394234-0.49120530080.0367522285-0.3816286127-0.23948569970.0660402294-0.51832185450.0377983304-0.3920499249-0.24772454580.0623171482-0.53965899210.0364966063-0.4013879873-0.24628217060.0585613141-0.55261223750.0418478964-0.4123731152-0.24867783460.0548382237-0.56436482970.0437935106-0.4244511339-0.24741628740.0513390296-0.57673488120.0558579242-0.4347468604-0.25478558590.0484019645-0.58527255760.0494751861-0.4444040212-0.24057369120.0458751096-0.58962741660.0471746716-0.4647853154-0.22668957720.0423580874-0.60194213350.0524198985-0.4729749841-0.21675514630.0368186017-0.60049163010.051580225-0.4785379322-0.1974845480.029048525-0.59539373020.05122116-0.4844484102-0.17742874360.0197914508-0.59086454290.0517072942-0.4898335327-0.15840644240.0099420174-0.58659066350.0530610631-0.493106845-0.1390838030.0000059852-0.57912359970.0542728264-0.4944311801-0.1162794947-0.0098434173-0.56628126570.0550898608-0.4940156848-0.092731191-0.0191005224-0.55075753730.0617696185-0.4919028902-0.0770959674-0.0268705991-0.53409983810.0630278552-0.4866239458-0.0585443046-0.0324844431-0.51462483820.0637342288-0.4808573371-0.0445753175-0.0363773261-0.49807575190.0618443835-0.4643353394-0.0316757296-0.0396918485-0.47385853410.0645822098-0.4411327224-0.02488382-0.0437732049-0.44520753750.0638002519-0.4061270776-0.0188599087-0.0486356342-0.40982236850.0589262021-0.3522496763-0.0145637202-0.0538091859-0.36169638030.0527521812-0.2810923768-0.010210163-0.0590282597-0.29757861830.0514108649-0.1900681896-0.0091595282-0.0642018268-0.21201867970.0471075602-0.0798145971-0.0044935257-0.0690642623-0.10626482490.04339080950.049044191-0.0018592667-0.07314562490.0174301090.03806127480.18299560580.0014146572-0.07591586480.1465556730.03495752310.30423333730.000730324-0.07705872420.26286246010.02768389920.4093885652-0.0008085028-0.07690959340.35935436820.02010547640.4882907312-0.0018736677-0.07630751080.4302150290.01918009820.535314728-0.0015995148-0.07559021680.47730509460.01779434680.56133715080.0002296257-0.07482698660.50453413670.01625949320.58065908280.0003712681-0.07405708460.52323275950.01698281330.59637840110.0012524915-0.07329385440.54131985160.01767791610.61260862940.0020077755-0.07257656040.55971776050.01499572370.63221373220.0032130396-0.07197448090.57844801460.01343324430.65523019380.0014359703-0.07156016210.59853924630.00959509520.68160798690.0007979191-0.07136315180.62063784940.00418455720.7122588942-0.0006390707-0.07132558150.6444787992-0.00189247220.7444216274-0.0013632165-0.0713278320.6698381067-0.00725256970.7798902747-0.0025946339-0.07133054930.6987125218-0.013114560.8208635025-0.0032618765-0.07133342660.7331536395-0.01403509770.863469774-0.0026317515-0.07133633180.7754665929-0.01593714950.9080150809-0.0010738312-0.07133920910.8196648912-0.01868361410.9566671379-0.0015598326-0.07134189650.8650817947-0.02317940281.0104333006-0.0016928745-0.07134417840.914216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ABR, netTGD, netTFW, netTPB, netLCD

notesFigures for "swedish chapter" intended for NTA book.20100107

Figure1Figure 1. Private consumption, SEK, 20030123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100CFE02210.74807589445188.06576940787277.02249640657382.65353515516854.05485537956126.85694218025335.829127184803.95300540893738.79237857562553.16971498461223.8633067346504.41173082821.086912824510.112413218.6847541144002.570023330211.40834241421.210733666433.186243147548.127734498366.307957358487.3444823771110.6826655246135.7423651887161.6804536864187.8166784502213.4162507362237.6609560043259.8587497715279.7011399451297.0401832519311.7324056577323.6391461548332.7824071512339.1643659684342.7025135772343.3270610904340.9691363876335.6854644265327.5640548383316.6507459725303.0759479339287.0961262882268.920074718248.7259898071226.6702949236203.2357824845179.2190084098155.4506781898132.7125648768111.663354094892.455721926775.135197313160.097239155647.865229729838.800295013332.743834316529.071941863127.23203634926.788768048927.078477877927.857466250429.095869481630.683583855932.42050205834.277791766236.282245495838.439295091140.759872998543.276157739645.97246113948.725856202951.202307418152.873997648852.977993404450.476949914744.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.056567100944.0565671009CFH132.1200125317173.11180466207.0847141035233.3076535652261.6633368372300.6545256573352.9674160689416.0889320152485.3625274556557.2042164317630.3657060882705.0247231662782.3094640449862.6298037867946.02189738981032.04570815781121.15328243471213.34237414141309.22130401521409.57531736351513.87406448141621.11677960161730.90764857531842.16167766791952.72343308582059.61032801732159.97660312412251.05133017362331.99360464252402.49310090432462.7142640382514.62000676892561.52558773092607.48265864412659.56831689712723.86943693172802.02714625912891.83524511362989.45866797693091.71795232583193.15478208723289.50332585263379.42705194393467.52263005783557.5782563650.30591393563745.85412011723842.99417758423942.4774914824045.07334391274154.13435176514273.91511605224403.56969003214537.96933536554672.59232805734805.54657563244939.51511128795075.47326050735207.88879287885327.50579966195428.87020483095509.98723800775572.04376865895618.87188281015655.38751426285685.5796307945714.76376201785746.6752750425781.44710108055815.84454239875843.48449422075858.67303135665860.74481016215852.02807500865833.16788607085801.65562507155754.96582814025685.81535450685577.28057090765412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.77074509295412.7707450929CFR9183.0924594539048.57489496539050.33428541849146.22238296229311.74053787199535.75392745769809.58730027210125.450657994510485.403173884410898.098555364611375.644085711711941.141032563112617.268148569313444.375328529914439.576320263715604.060628942416933.202019133918416.846150445720017.379219164921687.40322585923370.107266007925008.210592007926571.974428605428028.600290711429330.436922012230412.039764842631205.216252479731678.026222930831851.084327964331754.489173878131421.471272205930898.208176322330232.265195635829468.514636516528643.725731086227808.01010907327001.113057445526248.267441693225564.241232094324976.551189906424513.407381424624196.777835688824030.828112717623997.028059690424084.662962390924267.557977245924544.144286740724938.594744530325443.733356986926017.866707284226633.562835111427251.690687384227860.571798586528463.148990761729037.754476059729540.360519701629937.112062640530215.356574431730372.780364379530423.458097724930370.670654339730224.896680939630041.732365780829900.466594062629835.562928922729857.854118327229973.020679748830171.693254531930458.307848957730856.284421789431381.218325515432033.305519080332846.016019394333824.82292539834942.800790543736166.424591901737442.944702725238708.37422486639941.349049539941198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.282433584641198.2824335846CFD7205.90865166437175.85061230577208.93524329177274.92562110467359.49623013527459.70825919567578.5084265897725.41747212087907.28467658218123.54130065068372.32539056588653.00964851378973.55986288579346.0872132189775.098755233910257.878452124510787.804495908311362.604106616811976.291024985712624.682501615113291.268365154613955.819005972314605.419469072115242.138209978915862.345977364316463.301637922817039.582514898317579.398984776718069.765043119918492.643299365218834.81970328519096.055895461619275.047774849219373.040998597819393.937556216119342.282320065719234.746697891719105.750706399418988.02980294718901.781510321518855.319759179418841.286348453118844.295636103518857.191109801318889.447556406218947.327640430619029.374848316419138.572110662919269.937944828919423.237429272619605.818451432819823.941383904720053.957076177120260.633026798220405.58076394720461.49896660920410.574852134620250.055827630819990.493881172919646.60541489619221.443262882618725.186976617318166.505733966117555.312078027116913.591227221516248.192576936415546.15418786714794.49578536913991.984317838313148.114053433412281.395663676511417.769758174510575.35566354019763.54508462458995.49408614288289.16740487367660.46922918587098.41325264216534.46495443145890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.56162520615890.5616252061CFX22757.364273852922924.831246195423226.676778230523784.511157373124607.903139099725684.516477577526986.557089533928491.548140248730186.509355077432016.677657767433942.684781775435901.296723845237804.728460681239691.23897076741714.77978906944135.874321427747042.760244840950462.899314546354255.515083207958061.183321914561789.01460514565376.707740057268820.373342688572050.573189166174895.97728023677191.332635840778780.007323521679848.507274122380770.293565156481458.351257601581533.557091811380719.396953691779316.191104195277578.43291427475717.610215297273681.283935336471452.333450820769205.189725353667152.816585160965734.390111683865014.46674456464563.529688577464179.92573025964058.086251096164431.612648257765331.636036866366437.019815462867527.077541874768575.0510795369526.330910647670459.918284783171830.02999183673503.274142588775221.948681617876678.92635305777816.99975066279114.034814843480357.987924243681008.7916440280988.838210444580300.954703727878840.063583192676807.78253758374502.397751088571874.972201689369118.253857484366492.436088196964262.784276932562655.684864634861068.64316815859300.274128382157646.203013303256242.891735602754830.711883215653108.210987954651051.257450679448714.161693940246362.096278184344311.806490980342611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.34123632542611.341236325

Figure1

Other consumptionDurablesHousing and capital consHealth consumptionEducation consumptionAgeSEK

Figure2Figure 2. Per capita public consumption by category, in SEK, 20030123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100CGE1683.39423712839695.759857777275808.340574808379378.979602609483548.308939194384640.314827286867719.116314690399023.44731582296012.026779490890871.495617444179808.508189593375315.58475561374071.103733729270594.529802304371991.212684220570862.256208317181791.85781847886255.719648000982592.397376916229873.063284351930196.05606806833355.121363691635867.906752472635666.716913693732538.880371063426493.436902051821106.335673783917165.313549388614642.946008214712227.18945389839193.01913813399013.91693319998921.66005377849178.73271044479239.28264342965885.43111945945566.39161850085489.96413511125471.25725765465466.5508339965869.60704094326141.37395003296329.82699004586407.94631066346345.56599250812887.68442998872848.98354337972835.70807662652874.44872817342931.92970323762862.72077088782881.7166422542907.80973720072793.55755059282696.62147960291095.17653764131086.58835228031076.07403167321087.22198968341106.913044705649.7169657719706.6804982472792.98499639832.4184558394831.4313713313000000000000000000000000000000000000CGH8886.29983076278886.29983076278886.29983076278886.29983076278886.29983076278886.29983076278886.29983076278889.36314805358906.81882434988947.69329035929014.39349024929103.40319887219208.15525229979321.86154579349439.26901394589557.56118152969675.71978602489798.33839908249947.251465084710137.664579974810368.694084532210628.24222113410902.518808906311183.608778543711469.480598018411756.177304793712041.297051735812317.926596726212573.061222195912789.912963271212952.412640860213051.994117610413094.432644836913101.983536281113101.983536281113101.983536281113101.983536281113113.142919586313175.872842239313323.062694745713563.252609183813883.780097394214260.821207490314669.302694208315089.794456806515512.020251094615932.512013692816340.993500410816718.034610506817038.561058506317278.750972944417425.941865661817488.670748103817499.8311716217499.8311716217499.8311716217499.8311716217571.364399727217973.449629179718916.915779526520456.491470625522511.019442458724927.792563525527546.094077842330241.375364914632947.775467064135643.057794347338402.227799095141610.816793355245523.283265465650094.701543766255084.088032847560361.79083718766243.395402668573085.527658855880919.03194148489568.125078854598925.6133303258109465.603012403121467.317956241134730.163878041148750.84510122163265.75136131179015.731314519196703.145811101216211.314386353236967.871355163258142.260267116278900.439965042298508.510402023316215.553679643331616.678079248344630.071007906355644.386491004365116.183526164372289.644821293376318.257089668377500.560880189377499.978362045377499.967959936377499.978362045CGX24310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.146707128224310.1467071282

Figure2

Other consumptionHealth consumptionEducationAgeSEK

Figure3(upper)(lower)Figure 4 Labor income, total consumption (private and public),and life cycle deficit, per capita (upper panel) and aggregate (lower panel), normalized to labor incomeof the age group 30-490123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081828384858687888990919293949596979899100LCD74158.326172521114425.323029689153885.883903151160291.415451912165668.212256184167671.449410445151770.040027225184317.291500563183097.505049377179463.649723721170007.238066096167153.470096436168271.683360166167591.956284352172626.217580451175778.507961742189560.409140594185708.108417806164740.91563708392126.832718443972350.876988512656604.200943605344069.07415012332557.474210075218102.7613459393-1646.902976494-22842.4321906044-42755.0356022885-59812.7744621772-74371.5779687345-87545.9294182688-97010.0719589218-106497.718418745-115692.417471132-125315.557933198-139001.010310901-149731.015716786-159399.964263733-168199.518690474-175123.533289957-179326.969674283-183140.769028299-187154.956855378-189925.500704924-191338.684456775-195334.90624742-194864.200452-193209.922686623-191740.172161639-190353.177173399-187930.065764081-183762.713944918-178725.060126241-173319.54943913-166999.731829068-161629.412509743-153770.740995396-144473.256906411-132990.583203212-117373.303581439-96566.5839384211-68801.7146060567-34483.79579975656.222602813247558.410372871685300.9025600651116613.342558514139608.114329011154889.217755227163725.243733217169793.097685092175662.498058011181632.761769015187710.874446036194230.63869636201401.806401216209138.381948008217367.670812707226737.634246242237914.056493195251644.938738233265987.630026719280725.76819098296670.473887366314433.850674901334035.970471354354964.905218513376298.163984866397205.522026408416980.823077582434828.899054445450388.839318618463639.643974409474852.67559489484409.218219271491614.854925989495609.222825036496735.018781593496689.672846057496678.580002892496750.27188561C74158.326172521114425.323029689153885.883903151160291.415451912165668.212256184167671.449410445151770.040027225184317.291500563183097.505049377179463.649723721170007.238066096167153.470096436168271.683360166167591.956284352172626.217580451175778.507961742191662.644353949201819.896699962204410.772203833158115.127280621164860.371894184174288.55065274182857.374891947188390.253724248190447.335771285188796.727946122186778.30449186185312.051118933184737.107156872183648.642206783180945.801773467179864.197539955177990.9702081175915.374345138173377.987111993167176.64631043163801.524621478160703.461246354157994.525608778156147.528061198155660.324160898155562.083417554155662.835490527156083.874508618157011.884527432155193.775082978157116.955409556159182.812848625161360.50021356163496.381642474165484.271382463167952.833072411170660.712464694173198.898817979175393.909001399175604.695426308177357.900311091178904.323955072179989.573303456180753.126888403180767.36591117180855.21316294180645.777441081180292.786024676179690.324781721178196.898227216177710.262803162177720.443600157178842.665424761180758.598403869183249.66015778186390.945934889190240.221930754194870.622539182200324.073972899206588.886028557213503.687237623221143.437141058230191.127735305240934.477270679254197.323192479268218.004415658282732.910675747298482.890628957316170.305125539335678.473700791356435.030669601377609.419581554398367.59927948417975.669716461435682.712994081451083.837393685464097.230322344475111.545805442484583.342840602491756.80413573495785.416404105496967.720194627496967.137676483496967.127274373496967.137676483YL00000000000000002102.235213354416111.788282155339669.856566750165988.294562177292509.494905671117684.349709135138788.300741824155832.779514173172344.574425346190443.630922616209620.736682465228067.086721221244549.881619049258020.220175517268491.731191736276874.269498876284488.688626844291607.79181627298693.545045191306177.656621331313532.540338265320103.425510087326194.044299253331271.061351155334987.293835181338702.852445852342817.792345904346009.375213542348350.568984206350528.681330398351981.155861556352392.735535248353100.672375199353849.558815873353414.337146543351715.547017329349385.772590935346518.448257109342393.640830467337234.107936051331128.641306487323377.580861482312980.156506667298126.430469842277333.949849591249656.927768997215129.573240781174636.563421863132131.91440884992895.995667150761096.920244648238112.329271145223953.447669533617033.354670652213456.562472688110728.44787687778607.46016173897159.74809314636093.43527653925187.07962734024365.30528961453775.76632835053453.49348906343020.42077748382552.38445424562230.37438893862007.1424847671812.41674159051736.45445063851642.50322943621470.12545108781311.25559668821162.0772530717994.8466388786853.8139396355694.9980750672457.5863479354258.8702105517174.1246213308141.9492097411176.1935790691232.7014130336277.4648304257288.5472714807216.8657908724DN992309707993204926149075991768927749749810533311422611935712529112806512938412240811938111255611050910755610329810127210243110330110709810591510360210651510949011507012127412068312309612437712087212007512600713330313517813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capita normalized to YL 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by 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normalized to aggregate YL 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Figure3

ConsumptionLabor incomeLife cycle deficit

Figure4 & 5

ConsumptionLabor incomeLife cycle deficit

Figure 6Figure 4 Per capita net transfers and life cycle deficit; normalized to labor income of the age group 30-49Figure 5 Aggregate net transfers and life cycle deficit; population weighted and normalized to labor income of the age group 30-49per capita SEKper capita normalized to YL 30-49aggregate normalized to YL 30-49ABR, netTGD, netTFW, netTPB, netLCDDNABR, netTGD, netTFW, netTPB, netLCDABR, netTGD, netTFW, netTPB, 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daniel.hallberg:average YL 30-49daniel.hallberg:averge agg YL 30-49

Figure 6


Figure7


Figure8 & 9



Fig6adjusted profile to 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Åldrande befolkning --- en fördelningsfråga

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