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AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES

RESEARCH BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS AND

SCIENCES

JUNE QUARTER 2013

© Commonwealth of Australia 2013

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Cataloguing data

ABARES 2013, Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2013, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, Canberra.

ISSN 189-5619 (printed)

ISSN 189-5629 (online)

ISBN 978-1-74323-138-8 (printed)

ISBN 978-1-74323-139-5 (online)

ABARES project 43006

Internet

Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2013 is available at daff.gov.au/abares/publications

Contact

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001Email [email protected] daff.gov.au/abares

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mailto:[email protected]

http://daff.gov.au/abares


http://daff.gov.au/abares/publications

The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry represented by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence, for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying upon any of the information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law.

ContentsRegional Outlook conferences 2013................................................................8

ABARES is delivering commodity forecasts, research and analysis directly to rural and regional Australia again in 2013.........................................................................8

Economic overview.......................................................................................10Global economic growth to remain subdued in 2013...............................................10Economic prospects in Australia's major export markets.........................................12Economic prospects in Australia..............................................................................18Outlook for Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports...........................20

Agriculture - Crops.......................................................................................25Wheat......................................................................................................................25Coarse grains...........................................................................................................31Oilseeds...................................................................................................................38Sugar.......................................................................................................................46Cotton......................................................................................................................53

Agriculture - Livestock.................................................................................61Beef and veal...........................................................................................................61Sheep meat.............................................................................................................75Wool........................................................................................................................81Dairy........................................................................................................................86

Statistical tables..........................................................................................92GDP, exports............................................................................................................92Import markets........................................................................................................94Export markets........................................................................................................95Prices.......................................................................................................................97Costs and returns...................................................................................................101Exports..................................................................................................................103Sectors...................................................................................................................104Employment, banks...............................................................................................106Farm debt, world prices.........................................................................................108Gross unit values...................................................................................................110World.....................................................................................................................112Australian production.............................................................................................115Value of production................................................................................................119Areas, stock...........................................................................................................122Yields.....................................................................................................................124Export volumes......................................................................................................126Export values.........................................................................................................129Forest exports........................................................................................................133Forest imports........................................................................................................136Fisheries exports....................................................................................................139Fisheries imports...................................................................................................141Agricultural exports...............................................................................................143Food exports..........................................................................................................150Food imports..........................................................................................................154Food trade.............................................................................................................157

Report extracts..........................................................................................159ABARES reports released since Agricultural commodities (vol. 3 no. 1 March quarter 2013).....................................................................................................................159Research reports...................................................................................................159Technical reports...................................................................................................160Other reports.........................................................................................................160

ABARES contacts............................................................................................................165

List of FiguresWorld economic growth....................................................................................................10Regional economic growth...............................................................................................11US unemployment rate.....................................................................................................13OECD economic growth....................................................................................................14China's recent trade indicators.........................................................................................14Chinese inflation rate........................................................................................................15Japan industrial production and exports...........................................................................16Industrial production in selected European economies.....................................................16Unemployment rates in selected European economies....................................................17Economic growth in Asia...................................................................................................18Australian economic indicators.........................................................................................18Australian exchange rate..................................................................................................20Major Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity exports..........................23World wheat supply and price..........................................................................................25Wheat production changes, major producers, 2013-14....................................................25Proportion of United States in drought, end of month, selected states.............................26World wheat exports.........................................................................................................28Australian wheat production.............................................................................................29World coarse grains prices................................................................................................31World coarse grains production........................................................................................31World corn production......................................................................................................33World coarse grains consumption.....................................................................................34World corn trade...............................................................................................................34Australian coarse grains production.................................................................................36Australian coarse grains export value...............................................................................36World oilseeds indicator prices (fiscal year)......................................................................38Canola planted area, Canada............................................................................................39World oilseeds production................................................................................................40Soybeans supply and use, Paraguay.................................................................................41Protein meal consumption, Russian Federation................................................................42World canola closing stocks..............................................................................................43Indicator price, Intercontinental Exchange (daily, ended 13 June 2013)...........................46World sugar indicators......................................................................................................46Forecast change in world sugar production......................................................................47Sugar cane production and allocation, Brazil....................................................................47European Union sugar production, consumption and trade a...........................................49European Union white sugar prices, monthly....................................................................49World sugar surplus/deficit and stocks-to-use ratio..........................................................50Forecast changes in world sugar net exports, by country.................................................51Australian sugar production, exports and returns to cane growers...................................52Daily cotton prices, China.................................................................................................53World cotton indicators (annual).......................................................................................53Forecast changes in world cotton production, by country.................................................54Cotton area and lint yield in the United States.................................................................54Cotton indicators, Brazil....................................................................................................55Brazilian prices for cotton and government cotton stocks................................................56Cotton and polyester shares in world fibre consumption..................................................57World weekly apparel fibre prices.....................................................................................57Stocks-to-use ratio for cotton...........................................................................................58Storage levels of main irrigation dams, at 14 June 2013..................................................59Australian cotton production, exports and gin-gate returns..............................................60Cattle slaughter and weighted average saleyard price, Australia.....................................61Cattle and calf slaughter, Australia, monthly, nine months to March................................62

Beef and veal exports, Australia.......................................................................................63Beef and veal imports, Japan............................................................................................63Beef and veal imports, United States................................................................................64Beef and veal import unit prices, Republic of Korea.........................................................65Australian beef and veal exports to South-East Asia.........................................................66Australian beef and veal exports to the Middle East.........................................................66Australian beef and veal exports to China........................................................................67Australian beef and veal exports to China (11 months to May 2013), by discharge port. .67Live cattle exports, for feeder and slaughter purposes.....................................................69Live sheep exports............................................................................................................71Australian lamb saleyard price and slaughter...................................................................75Australian sheep saleyard price and slaughter.................................................................75Australian sheep flock......................................................................................................76Australian average lamb carcass weight, by state, 9 months to March............................77Australian sheep slaughter, monthly, July to March..........................................................77New Zealand sheep meat exports, by destination, 10 months to April.............................78Australian mutton exports, by destination, 11 months to May..........................................79Australian wool auction prices, by micron........................................................................81Australian wool micron profile, 10 months to April...........................................................82Price ratios, wool to competing fibres...............................................................................83Production and exports of Australian wool........................................................................84World dairy prices.............................................................................................................86EU milk production and farmgate price............................................................................87US dairy............................................................................................................................87New Zealand milk production, year-on-year change.........................................................88New Zealand exports of milk powder to China..................................................................89Victorian milk production, year-on-year change...............................................................90FIGURE 1 Contribution to GDP Australia, chain volume measures, reference year 2010-11.........................................................................................................................................92FIGURE 2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports in 2011-12 dollars........................93FIGURE 3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports in 2011-12 dollars.........................94FIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal)..........................................................................................................................95FIGURE 5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis Australia.........103

List of TablesKey macroeconomic assumptions.....................................................................................11Major indicators of Australia's agriculture and natural resources based sectors...............21Wheat outlook..................................................................................................................29Coarse grains outlook.......................................................................................................36Australian canola exports by destination, July to April ('000 tonnes)................................44Oilseeds outlook...............................................................................................................44Sugar outlook...................................................................................................................52Cotton outlook..................................................................................................................60Beef and veal outlook.......................................................................................................68Australian live cattle and sheep exports...........................................................................71Australian live cattle and sheep exports, by destinations.................................................72Outlook for live cattle and sheep exports.........................................................................73Sheep meat outlook..........................................................................................................79Wool outlook.....................................................................................................................84Dairy outlook....................................................................................................................91TABLE 1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia.................................................97TABLE 2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers and terms of trade Australia........................100TABLE 3 Farm costs and returns Australia......................................................................101TABLE 4 Volume of production indexes Australia............................................................104TABLE 5 Industry gross value added a, b Australia.........................................................104

TABLE 6 Employment a, b Australia................................................................................106TABLE 7 All banks lending to business a Australia..........................................................107TABLE 8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions a Australia.....................................108TABLE 9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities....................................108TABLE 10 Gross unit values of farm products a..............................................................110TABLE 11 World production, consumption. stocks and trade for selected commodities a.......................................................................................................................................112TABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia...............115TABLE 13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production Australia...................................119TABLE 14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers Australia...............................122TABLE 15 Average farm yields Australia.........................................................................124TABLE 16 Volume of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports Australia......................126TABLE 17 Value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports(fob) Australia a..............129TABLE 18 Volume 0f forest products exports Australia...................................................133TABLE 19 Value of forest products exports (fob) Australia..............................................134TABLE 20 Volume of forest products imports Australia...................................................136TABLE 21 Value of forest products imports Australia......................................................137TABLE 22 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia...............................................139TABLE 23Valueof fisheries products exports(fob) Australia............................................139TABLE 24 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia...............................................141TABLE 25 Value of fisheries products imports Australia..................................................141TABLE 26 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) Australia a................................................143TABLE 27 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) Australia a..............................145TABLE 28 Agricultural exports to China (fob) Australia a................................................147TABLE 29 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries....................149TABLE 30 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries Australia. 150TABLE 31 Food exports by level of transformation Australia...........................................151TABLE 32 Food imports by level of transformation Australia..........................................154TABLE 33 Total food exports, by selected destination Australia.....................................157TABLE 34 Total food imports, by selected source country Australia...............................157

Regional Outlook conferences 2013 Future food, future farming

ABARES is delivering commodity forecasts, research and analysis directly to rural and regional Australia again in 2013.Promoting discussion on industry productivity, community vitality and environmental sustainability, the 2013 conferences will balance national and regional perspectives; focus on the future; and emphasise agricultural, fisheries and forestry strategies that work in a context of economic volatility and climatic variability.

ABARES invites collaboration from regional, state and national agencies to focus on industries and issues relevant to each region.

Delegates from businesses, government, and the community will discuss industry trends, access forecasts and other information, make new contacts in their community and be exposed to new ideas while gaining an understanding of global issues that affect their region.

From 2013 ABARES is producing papers profiling agricultural, fisheries and forestry activities for 49 regions across Australia. These regional profiles can be accessed from the ABARES website.

For inquiries and to register your interest contact

Anna Carr Director, Research Engagement and Outlook Phone +61 2 6272 2287 Email [email protected]

daff.gov.au/abares/regional

2013 locations and dates

Tasmania Hobart 1 May

Victoria Cardinia 2 May

Queensland Townsville 12 June

South Australia Coonawarra 30 July

Western Australia Northam 1 August

http://daff.gov.au/abares/regional


New South Wales Tamworth 4 September

Northern Territory Darwin 10 October

Economic overviewPatrick Hamshere and Jenny Eather

Following growth of 3.2 per cent in 2012, world economic growth is assumed to remain subdued at 3.2 per cent in 2013, improving to 3.9 per cent in 2014.

Despite moderating recently, emerging economies, particularly China and India, are expected to continue driving world economic growth.

Economic growth in OECD economies is assumed to remain slow, reflecting weakness in many European economies and reduced public spending in the United States.

European economies remain at risk of further weakening, with negative consequences for growth in other economies.

Global economic growth to remain subdued in 2013Global economic growth has been relatively subdued since the beginning of 2013. Activity in emerging economies, particularly in Asia, continues to underpin world economic growth, while uncertainty remains for the OECD economic outlook.

World economic growth

a ABARES assumption

Demand in OECD economies is assumed to remain weak in the short term. Continued weakness in housing and labour markets is expected to be a key constraint to any significant recovery in consumer spending. In addition, fiscal consolidation in a number of countries, especially the United States and some European countries, is expected to detract from growth.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, world economic growth is assumed to average 3.2 per cent in 2013 and improve to around 3.9 per cent in 2014. For OECD economies as a whole, economic growth is assumed to be around 1.2 per cent in 2013, before strengthening modestly to 1.9 per cent in 2013. Some Western European economies remain at risk of weakening economic performance, which could have flow-on effects to growth prospects in other countries, especially in Europe.

For emerging economies, the short-term outlook remains generally positive. Relatively strong domestic demand in these economies is expected to largely offset weakened

ABARESAgricultural commodities - vol. 3 no. 2 June quarter 201310

export performance in response to subdued growth in developed economies. There is a downside risk to economic performance in countries with strong trade links to Western Europe, particularly the Russian Federation, Ukraine and those in Eastern Europe and South-East Asia. For developing economies as a whole, economic growth is assumed to average 5.5 per cent in 2013 and 5.9 per cent in 2014, compared with 5.6 per cent in 2012.

Regional economic growth

a ABARES assumption.

Key macroeconomic assumptions

World Economic growth unit 2011 2012 2013 a 2014 a

OECD % 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.9United States % 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.5Japan % - 0.6 2.0 1.3 1.0Western Europe % 1.4 - 0.3 0.0 1.2- Germany % 3.1 0.9 0.6 1.5- France % 1.7 0.0 - 0.1 0.9- United Kingdom % 0.9 0.2 0.7 1.5- Italy % 0.4 - 2.4 - 1.5 0.5Korea, Rep. of % 3.6 2.0 2.5 3.5New Zealand % 1.4 2.5 2.7 2.6Developing countries % 6.7 5.6 5.5 5.9- non-OECD Asia % 7.8 6.6 6.7 7.1

South-East Asia b % 4.5 6.1 6.0 5.6China c % 9.3 7.8 7.3 7.6Taiwan % 4.1 1.3 3.0 3.9Singapore % 5.2 1.3 2.0 5.1India % 7.7 4.0 5.8 6.5


World Economic growth unit 2011 2012 2013 a 2014 a

- Latin America % 4.6 3.0 3.4 3.9Russian Federation % 4.3 3.4 3.4 3.8Ukraine % 5.2 0.2 0.0 2.8Eastern Europe % 5.2 1.6 2.2 2.8World d % 4.0 3.2 3.2 3.9

World Inflation unit 2011 2012 2013 a 2014 a

United States % 3.2 2.1 1.8 1.8

World Interest rates unit 2011 2012 2013 a 2014 a

US prime rate e % 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3

Australia unit 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 a 2013-14 a

Economic growth % 2.4 3.4 3.0 2.75Inflation % 3.1 2.3 2.4 2.5Interest rates g % 6.6 6.2 5.3 5.1

Australian exchange rates unit 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 a 2013-14 a

US$/A$ — 0.99 1.03 1.03 0.98TWI for A$ h — 74 76 78 75a ABARES assumption. b Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. c Excludes Hong Kong. d Weighted using 2012 purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country gross domestic product by the International Monetary Fund. e Commercial bank prime lending rates in the United States. g Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding. h Base: May 1970 = 100.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Monetary Fund; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; Reserve Bank of Australia

Economic prospects in Australia's major export marketsUnited States

In the United States, real gross domestic product expanded at a year-on-year rate of 1.8 per cent in the March quarter of 2013, following growth of 2.2 per cent for 2012 as a whole. The slower growth reflects declines in government spending and slower private investment as uncertainty over US fiscal policy weighed on consumer and investor sentiment.

On 1 March 2013 the US Government announced the budget sequester, a fiscal consolidation measure which includes around US$90 billion of public spending cuts for fiscal year 2013-14 and follows cuts already occurring in 2012-13. According to the US


Congressional Budget Office, reduced public sector demand will subtract around 1.5 percentage points from economic growth in 2013.

Private sector demand is expected to continue expanding at a gradual pace. Consumer spending rose at a year-on-year rate of 2 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with 1.8 per cent in the December quarter 2012 and 1.9 per cent in the September quarter.

In the near term, improvements in consumer spending are expected to be supported by strengthening labour and housing markets. Median house prices increased by 11 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter 2013 and new housing starts increased to their highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis. The unemployment rate declined to 7.5 per cent in April 2013 from 7.6 per cent in March and an average of 8.1 per cent in 2012. Despite recent improvements, unemployment remains high, with further improvements expected to be gradual.

US unemployment rate

Manufacturing activity continued to expand in the March quarter 2013, albeit more slowly than in 2012. Industrial production grew year-on-year at 3 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with growth of 4 per cent for 2012 as a whole. Manufacturing activity is likely to continue to support economic growth in the near term.

In the short term, economic growth in the United States is assumed to remain relatively modest, with reduced public sector demand a key factor holding back economic growth. There is a downside risk of further public spending cuts if the US Congress does not raise the debt ceiling toward the end of 2013. Economic growth is assumed to average 2 per cent in 2013, increasing to 2.5 per cent in 2014, assuming continued strengthening of private demand.


OECD economic growth


China

Economic growth in China remains relatively strong, despite some easing of growth in domestic demand. Real gross domestic product expanded at a year-on-year rate of 7.7 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with 7.9 per cent in the December quarter 2012 and 7.4 per cent in the September quarter.

Domestic consumption moderated although remains relatively strong. Retail sales grew at a year-on-year rate of 12 per cent in the March quarter 2013 after expanding by 15 per cent in the December quarter and 14 per cent in the September quarter 2012. Fixed asset investment increased at a year-on-year rate of 21 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with growth of around 20 per cent in the December and September quarters 2012.

China's exports increased at a year-on-year rate of 18 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with growth of 9 per cent in the December quarter 2012 and 4 per cent in the September quarter. While a strengthening in world economic growth is likely to support China's export performance in coming quarters, there is uncertainty surrounding this outlook because of downside risks associated with economic growth in European economies.

China's recent trade indicators

Inflation remains relatively subdued in China. In March 2013 consumer prices grew by 2.1 per cent year-on-year, less than the 3.2 per cent in February and below the Chinese


Government's target of 3.5 per cent. Subdued inflation has paved the way for more accommodative monetary policy to support domestic demand if it weakens further.

Chinese inflation rate

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in China is assumed to average 7.3 per cent in 2013, increasing to 7.6 per cent in 2014 in line with improving export growth.

Japan

Economic activity in Japan expanded at a year-on-year rate of 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with growth of 0.5 per cent in the December quarter 2012. Recent economic growth was achieved through government stimulus measures.

Reflecting a 10.3 trillion yen fiscal stimulus measure announced by the Japanese Government on 11 January 2013, public sector demand increased at a year-on-year rate of 4.5 per cent in the March quarter 2013, similar to the 4.4 per cent increase recorded for 2012 as a whole.

In contrast, private sector demand declined in recent quarters largely reflecting reduced non-residential investment. Private sector demand decreased at a year-on-year rate of 0.5 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with growth of around 2.4 per cent for 2012. Household spending grew at a year-on-year rate of 1.1 per cent in the March quarter 2013, down from 2.2 per cent for 2012 as a whole. In coming quarters, private sector activity is expected to be supported by government spending and an easing of monetary conditions, as the Bank of Japan attempts to achieve a 2 per cent inflation target.

Exports remain relatively weak, despite increasing at a year-on-year rate of 1.1 per cent in March 2013, following a decline of 2.9 per cent in February. Industrial production decreased at a year-on-year rate of 6.7 per cent in March 2013 after declining by 10.5 per cent in February. Depreciation of the yen against other major currencies in recent months is expected to support Japan's export performance in the near term. The yen depreciated by around 17 per cent against the US dollar and by 6 per cent against the Australian dollar in the first five months of 2013.


Japan industrial production and exports

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, economic growth in Japan is assumed to average 1.3 per cent in 2013. In 2014 economic growth is assumed to ease slightly to 1 per cent, in line with a moderation of fiscal stimulus spending.

Western Europe

Economic conditions in Western Europe weakened in recent quarters. In Germany, real gross domestic product declined at a year-on-year rate of 0.3 per cent in the March quarter 2013 after expanding by 0.3 per cent in the December quarter 2012. In France, real gross domestic product contracted by 0.4 per cent in the March quarter 2013 after contracting by 0.3 per cent in the December quarter 2012.

The slowdown mainly reflects reduced private sector demand. In France, consumer spending declined at a year-on-year rate of 0.5 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with a decline of 0.2 per cent in the December quarter 2012. In Italy, consumer spending declined year-on-year by 4.4 per cent in the December quarter 2012 and 4.8 per cent in the September quarter.

Weak demand for exports, particularly within the Euro area, also contributed to the slowdown. In France, exports declined at a year-on-year rate of 1.3 per cent in the March quarter 2013 after expanding by 1.2 per cent in 2012. Similarly, industrial production contracted year-on-year by 3.1 per cent in the March quarter 2013, after declining by 2.5 per cent in 2012.

Industrial production in selected European economies


Unemployment remains high in most countries in the region, having increased in recent months. In France, the unemployment rate increased to 11 per cent in March 2013 from 10.9 per cent in February. In Italy, the unemployment rate was 11.5 per cent in March 2013, compared with 10.6 per cent for 2012 as a whole. In contrast, the unemployment rate in Germany was around 5.5 per cent in 2012, significantly lower than other major European countries.

Austerity measures adversely affected economic growth in Western Europe. In Italy, public sector demand declined at a year-on-year rate of 3.3 per cent in the December quarter 2012, following a decline of 2.6 per cent in the September quarter 2012.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, weak private sector demand and high unemployment are expected to hold back any significant recovery of economic growth. Economic activity in Western Europe is not expected to grow until 2014, when growth is assumed to be 1.2 per cent with increased private sector demand and a slower pace of fiscal consolidation.

Unemployment rates in selected European economies

Non-OECD Asia

Economic activity in non-OECD Asia (excluding Japan and the Republic of Korea) moderated in early 2013. For example, in Malaysia, real gross domestic product expanded at a year-on-year rate of 4.1 per cent in the March quarter 2013, down from 6.5 per cent in the December quarter and 5.3 per cent in the September quarter 2012. In Singapore, economic activity grew at a year-on-year rate of 0.2 per cent in the March quarter 2013, following growth of 1.5 per cent in the December quarter 2012.

For many economies, moderating economic growth largely reflects the adverse effect of slower export growth. Because exports account for a relatively large share of economic activity in many Asian economies, declining export growth can have a large adverse effect on general economic activity. In Singapore, exports declined by 8.7 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter 2013 and by 5.1 per cent in the December quarter 2012. Manufacturing activity declined by 6.8 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter 2013 after falling by 0.2 per cent in the December quarter 2012.

Reflecting moderating growth, a number of governments have eased monetary conditions in recent months. In India, the benchmark lending rate was reduced by 25 basis points in May 2013, the third interest rate cut since the beginning of 2013. In Vietnam, the benchmark lending rate was reduced by 100 basis points in May 2013, the second interest rate cut since the beginning of 2013.

For non-OECD Asia as a whole, economic growth is assumed to average 7.1 per cent in 2013 and 7.2 per cent in 2014. Stronger world economic growth in 2014 is expected to


provide support to regional export performance, while recent monetary easing is expected to support domestic demand.

Economic growth in Asia


Economic prospects in AustraliaIn Australia, real gross domestic product rose at a year-on-year rate of 2.5 per cent in the March quarter 2013, after expanding by 3.1 per cent in the December quarter 2012. In the short term, domestic demand is expected to be supported by continued mining investment and household spending. Growth in some non-mining sectors could remain below long-term trends.

Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.75 per cent in 2013-14, following estimated growth of 3 per cent in 2012-13.

Australian economic indicators

a ABARES assumption. b Large business weighted average variable rate on credit outstanding.

Inflation

Inflationary pressures in Australia have been modest in recent quarters. The consumer price index rose year-on-year by 2.5 per cent in the March quarter 2013, compared with 2.2 per cent in the December quarter and 2 per cent in the September quarter 2012.


The most significant price rises in the March quarter were for new dwelling purchases by owner-occupiers (up 2 per cent), pharmaceutical products (8 per cent), tertiary education (7 per cent) and tobacco (4 per cent). Partially offsetting these rises were price falls for international holiday travel and accommodation (down 5 per cent), furniture (7 per cent) and fruit (7 per cent).

In 2013-14 inflation is assumed to average 2.5 per cent, compared with an estimated 2.4 per cent in 2012-13.

Australian exchange rate

In late 2012-13 the Australian dollar depreciated significantly against the US dollar. The Australian dollar was trading at around US95c in mid June, compared with US106 cents in mid-April 2013. For 2012-13 as a whole the Australian dollar is estimated to average US103 cents, unchanged from the average in 2011-12.

To a large extent, the recent depreciation of the Australian dollar reflects improved market sentiment toward the US dollar as signs of US economic recovery are emerging. In addition, mineral resource prices on world markets have weakened over the past year, placing downward pressure on the value of the Australian dollar. In aggregate, the commodity price index measured by the Reserve Bank of Australia fell by around 15 per cent between April 2012 and April 2013.

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts, the Australian dollar is assumed to average around US98c for 2013-14 as a whole. On a trade-weighted basis, the Australian dollar is assumed to average around TWI 75 for the year compared with TWI 78 for 2012-13. While the Australian dollar is expected to remain below parity against the US dollar in the near term, the value of the Australian dollar is assumed to strengthen in the latter part of 2013-14.

A number of factors support this assessment. Although recent partial indicators suggest a strengthening in the pace of US economic recovery, the recovery in private sector demand is assumed to be gradual because of uncertainty associated with the stance of US fiscal policy. In contrast, economic growth in Australia is assumed to remain strong in the short term, averaging around 3 per cent in 2012-13 and 2.8 per cent in 2013-14, higher than the assumed growth rate of 2 to 2.5 per cent for the US economy over this period. Continued strong economic performance in Australia is expected to provide support for the Australian exchange rate.

Given the relative performance of the Australian economy, sizable differences are likely to remain in interest rates between Australia and other world economies, including the United States. While prime lending rates in Australia are assumed to decline from an average of 5.3 per cent in 2012-13 to 5.1 per cent in 2013-14, this remains higher than the 3.3 per cent assumed for the United States and 1.5 per cent for Japan. Higher interest rates in Australia are also expected to provide support for the value of the Australian dollar.

In addition, assumed strengthening world economic growth in 2014 is expected to increase commodity demand on world markets, supporting Australia's export performance. This is also likely to improve financial market sentiment toward the Australian dollar, especially toward the latter part of 2013-14.

While the value of the Australian dollar in 2013-14 is assumed to remain relatively high against the US dollar, considerable uncertainty remains in the outlook for exchange rates. Because changes in financial market sentiment can influence movements in the Australian dollar, some volatility in the Australian exchange rate may continue. Consequently, it remains important for primary producers and exporters to manage the risks associated with fluctuations in the Australian exchange rate.


Australian exchange rate

Outlook for Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry exportsThe total volume of farm production is forecast to increase by around 2.9 per cent in 2013-14, following an estimated decline of 4.3 per cent in 2012-13. This increase largely reflects higher forecast crop production.

The index of crop production is forecast to increase by 4.7 per cent in 2013-14, after declining an estimated 9.8 per cent in 2012-13. The increase mainly reflects a forecast increase in wheat, barley and grain sorghum production.

The volume of livestock production is forecast to increase by 0.5 per cent in 2013-14, as forecast increases in dairy and beef and veal production more than offset a decline in lamb and sheep turn-offs. This follows an estimated increase of 3.2 per cent in 2012-13.

The index of unit export returns for Australian farm commodities is forecast to increase by 2.1 per cent in 2013-14, after declining by an estimated 2.4 per cent in 2012-13. In 2013-14, forecast lower world prices for wheat, barley, oilseeds, sugar and beef are expected to be more than offset by higher prices for wool, dairy products, wine, lamb and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.

Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be around $35.8 billion in 2013-14, 3.2 per cent lower than the $37.0 billion estimated for 2012-13. Farm commodities for which export earnings are forecast to be lower in 2013-14 include barley (down 7 per cent), canola (34 per cent), wheat (4 per cent), rice (15 per cent), grain sorghum (13 per cent), cotton (8 per cent), sugar (8 per cent), lamb and mutton (11 per cent) and wool (5 per cent). Partially offsetting these declines are forecast increases in export earnings for wine (up 8 per cent), beef and veal (5 per cent) and dairy products (10 per cent).

Export earnings for crops are forecast to fall by 6.5 per cent in 2013-14 to $20.7 billion, following an estimated rise of 2.7 per cent in 2012-13. This reflects exports from the reduced 2012-13 crop being traded in 2013-14. Export earnings from livestock products are forecast to increase by 1.7 per cent to $15.1 billion in 2013-14, following an estimated increase of 0.6 per cent in 2012-13.

Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to be around $1.2 billion in 2013-14, largely unchanged from the estimate for 2012-13.

Export earnings for forest products are estimated to decline by 5.5 per cent to $2.1 billion in 2012-13, resulting from reductions in exports of all major forest commodities, particularly woodchips, which are estimated to decline by 8 per cent. In 2013-14 the


value of forestry product exports is forecast to be marginally higher at around $2.2 billion.

In total, the value of Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports is forecast to be around $39.3 billion in 2013-14, a decline of 2.6 per cent from an estimated $40.3 billion in 2012-13.

Major indicators of Australia's agriculture and natural resources based sectors

Indicator Currency

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12 s

2012-13 f

2013-14

Change from previous year2012-13 %


Exchange rate US$/A$

0.75 0.88 0.99 1.03 1.03 0.98 0.0 - 4.9

Unit returns aIndicator Unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12 s

2012-13 f

2013-14



Farm index 100.0 88.2 97.7 98.2 95.8 97.8 - 2.4 2.1

Value of exports A$m 34 946

31 309

35 531

39 780

40 289

39 252

1.3 - 2.6

Farm A$m 31 075

27 793

31 809

36 324

37 002

35 811

1.9 - 3.2

- crops A$m 16 361

14 890

17 313

21 589

22 183

20 736

2.7 - 6.5

- livestock A$m 14 714

12 903

14 496

14 735

14 819

15 076

0.6 1.7

Forest and fisheries products

A$m 3 871 3 516 3 722 3 456 3 287 3 441 - 4.9 4.7

- forestry A$m 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 106 2 238 - 5.5 6.3

- fisheries A$m 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 181 1 203 - 3.7 1.8


Gross value of production bIndicator Unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12 s

2012-13 f

2013-14



Farm A$m 41 929

39 665

46 914

47 972

47 253

47 715

-1.5 1.0

- crops A$m 22 769

21 136

25 876

26 852

27 529

27 550

2.5 0.1

- livestock A$m 19 160

18 529

21 038

21 120

19 724

20 164

- 6.6 2.2

Forestry and fisheries

A$m 3 973 3 967 4 082 4 034 3 882 4 089 - 3.8 5.3

- forestry A$m 1 759 1 777 1 851 1 647 1 488 1 629 - 9.6 9.5

- fisheries A$m 2 214 2 191 2 231 2 387 2 394 2 460 0.3 2.8

Volume of production cIndicator Unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12 s

2012-13 f

2013-14



Farm index 107.9 107.5 114.2 120.1 114.9 118.2 - 4.3 2.9

- crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 124.6 130.4 - 9.8 4.7

- livestock index 100.6 98.7 100.6 100.9 104.1 104.6 3.2 0.5

Forestry index 119.5 118.5 122.7 112.3 110.0 116.3 - 2.0 5. 7

Production area and livestock numbersIndicator Unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12 s

2012-13 f

2013-14



Crop area (grains and oilseeds)

'000 ha

24 095

23 787

23 946

24 295

23 858

23 799

-1.8 - 0.3

Forestry plantation area

'000 ha

2 020 2 009 2 017 2 013 na na na na

Sheep million

72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 74.0 73.6 - 0.9 - 0.5


Indicator Unit 2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12 s

2012-13 f

2013-14



Cattle million

27.9 26.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.9 -1.1 - 0.7

Farm costs A$m 36 631

34 460

36 515

37 404

36 892

37 639

-1.4 2.0

Net cash income d A$m 5 865 9 997 15 343

15 636

15 561

15 415

- 0.5 - 0.9

Net value of farm production e

A$m 5 298 5 204 10 399

10 568

10 361

10 076

- 2.0 - 2.8

Farmers' terms of Trade

index 88.5 88.6 96.4 93.6 96.7 94.3 3.3 - 2.5

EmploymentGroup Unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12 s

2012-13 f

2013-14



Agriculture, forestry and fishing

'000 363 369 350 334 na na na na

Australia '000 10 899

11 003

11 288

11 413

na na na na

a Base: 2008-09 = 100. b For a definition of the gross value of farm production see Table 13. c Chain weighted basis using Fishers' ideal index with a reference year of 1997-98 = 100. d Gross value of farm production less total cash costs. e Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate. na Not available. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

Major Australian agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity exports

Wheat, cotton, sugar, rice and oilseeds are world indicator prices in US$. All other commodities are export unit returns or domestic prices in A$. For export value, annual forecasts are the sum of quarterly forecasts. As a result, annual export values do not necessarily reflect variations in export volumes, world prices and exchange rates.


f ABARES forecast.


Agriculture - CropsWheatNeil Thompson

The world wheat indicator price (US no. 2 hard red winter, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 10 per cent in 2013-14 to average US$315 a tonne. The forecast price decline largely reflects the combined effect of an expected increase in world wheat production, from the drought-affected 2012-13 season, and forecast higher world corn production, which is expected to reduce demand growth for wheat used in livestock feed.

World wheat supply and price

f ABARES forecast

World production to increase in 2013-14

After falling by around 6 per cent in 2012-13, world wheat production is forecast to rise by around 5 per cent in 2013-14 to 690 million tonnes, which largely reflects higher production in the Black Sea region (the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan) and the European Union. Forecast declines in the United States and India are expected to partly offset these forecast increases.

Wheat production changes, major producers, 2013-14


Wheat production in the Black Sea region is forecast to increase significantly in 2013-14 following hot and dry seasonal conditions in 2012-13. Wheat production is expected to rise by 41 per cent in 2013-14 to around 53 million tonnes in the Russian Federation, while in Ukraine is forecast to rise by around 27 per cent to 20 million tonnes. In Kazakhstan, where sowing of spring wheat is underway, production is forecast to rise by 42 per cent to 14 million tonnes, largely reflecting assumed higher average yields.

Wheat crops in the Russian Federation and Ukraine emerged from winter dormancy with around 90 per cent rated in satisfactory to good condition. However, a downside risk to the current production forecasts for the Russian Federation and Ukraine is the relatively dry seasonal conditions over the past month or so. If dry conditions persist yields may be reduced.

In the European Union, wheat production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013-14 to around 138 million tonnes. Favourable seasonal conditions across much of the European Union are expected to result in higher average yields. One exception is the United Kingdom, where seasonal conditions have been wet. This restricted the area planted to winter wheat and hindered crop development.

Wheat production in Canada is forecast to increase by around 7 per cent in 2013-14 to 29 million tonnes, reflecting an assumed 7 per cent increase in harvested area.

In the United States, significant winter wheat growing areas remain in drought, despite an improvement in general conditions in recent months. According to the National Drought Mitigation Center, at the end of May 2013 44 per cent of the United States (excluding Hawaii and Alaska) was in moderate to exceptional drought, compared with 63 per cent in late November 2012.

The worst-affected states are mostly in the US winter wheat belt, including Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado and Nebraska. In Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, which collectively account for more than 25 per cent of US wheat production, wheat crop ratings have remained well below average. In late May 2013, 28 per cent of the wheat crop in Kansas was rated in good to excellent condition, compared with an average of 42 per cent at the same time over the five years to 2012-13. In Oklahoma and Texas, good to excellent ratings were at 17 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively, in late May, compared with five-year averages of 42 per cent and 28 per cent.

Wheat production in the United States is forecast to decline by 10 per cent in 2013-14 to around 55 million tonnes, which is 9 per cent lower than the five-year average to 2012-13.

Proportion of United States in drought, end of month, selected states


In Argentina, wheat production is forecast to rise by 30 per cent in 2013-14 to around 13 million tonnes. The increase reflects a recent announcement by the Argentine Government to introduce a rebate for wheat export taxes, which is expected to encourage producers to significantly increase the area planted to wheat.

Wheat production in China is forecast to be around 121 million tonnes in 2013-14, largely unchanged from the previous season.

In India, wheat production is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2013-14 to around 90 million tonnes. Harvesting of the 2013-14 wheat crop is underway with early indications that the average yield is likely to be lower than the record achieved last year.

Wheat consumption higher

World consumption of wheat is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2013-14 to 687 million tonnes, driven by small increases in both wheat for human consumption and feed wheat consumption.

Trade to rise on higher Russian Federation exports

World trade in wheat is forecast to increase by 9 per cent in 2013-14 to 142 million tonnes, largely reflecting a forecast increase in supplies available for export in most major exporting countries and higher import demand due to lower world prices.

The largest increase is expected to occur in the Russian Federation, where exports in 2013-14 are forecast to reach a little more than 17 million tonnes, 62 per cent higher than a drought-affected 11 million tonnes in 2012-13. Exports from Ukraine and Kazakhstan are also forecast to rise, but at a slower rate than the Russian Federation, reaching 8 million tonnes and 7 million tonnes, respectively, in 2013-14.

Wheat exports from Argentina are forecast to increase in 2013-14 to 8 million tonnes, compared with 5.5 million tonnes in 2012-13. The forecast increase reflects the Argentine Government's decision to provide a rebate for the 23 per cent tax on wheat exports.

In the European Union, wheat exports are forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013-14 to around 23 million tonnes. In Canada, wheat exports are forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013-14 to around 19 million tonnes. In contrast, wheat exports in the United States are forecast to decline by 5 per cent in 2013-14 to around 26.5 million tonnes.

Although not generally a major exporter of wheat, Indian wheat exports increased significantly in 2012-13 following record production. Another relatively large Indian wheat crop, in excess of 90 million tonnes, is forecast for 2013-14, which is expected to result in exports rising by 40 per cent to 7 million tonnes. If realised, this would be the highest Indian wheat export on record.


World wheat exports

f ABARES forecast.

World stocks to increase marginally

World wheat closing stocks are forecast to rise by around 2 per cent in 2013-14 to 180 million tonnes. While closing stocks for most major wheat producers are forecast to increase, stocks in India, the world's third largest wheat producer, are forecast to decline by 23 per cent to 19 million tonnes. This decline reflects an expected increase in domestic consumption and higher exports as the Indian Government attempts to reduce significant stockholdings following several years of above average production.

Australian wheat production to rise

Australian wheat production is forecast to rise by 15 per cent in 2013-14 to around 25.4 million tonnes. This increase reflects a forecast 3 per cent rise in the area planted to wheat in 2013-14 and an assumption of favourable seasonal conditions. Sowing of wheat is largely complete across most states with some growers in drier regions, especially in southern Victoria and western New South Wales, yet to complete planting.

The seasonal outlook issued by the Bureau of Meteorology for the winter period (June to August) points to an increase in the probability of a wetter than average winter across most of the major cropping areas in the eastern states. For Western Australia, average rainfall is expected over the same period. While the outlook is positive, the timeliness of in-crop rainfall will be essential for crop development as soil moisture levels across the cropping zone are generally low.

Wheat production in Western Australia is forecast to rise by 29 per cent in 2013-14 to around 8.8 million tonnes, following dry seasonal conditions in 2012-13. The forecast increase reflects a 3 per cent increase in the area planted to wheat and expected higher yields.

For eastern states (including South Australia), recent rainfall across most of the major growing regions has improved crop prospects. This improvement in seasonal conditions, combined with a 3 per cent increase in the area sown to wheat, is forecast to result in wheat production in eastern states rising by 9 per cent in 2013-14 to 16.6 million tonnes.


Australian wheat production

f ABARES forecast.

Export earnings to decline

Australian wheat exports are forecast to fall by 9 per cent in 2013-14 to around 19.5 million tonnes. This reflects lower production of wheat in 2012-13 and an expected reduction in stock drawdowns, which have supported 2012-13 exports. The value of exports is forecast to decline by 4 per cent in 2013-14 to $6.6 billion, reflecting forecast lower world prices and export volumes.

Wheat outlook

WorldCategory Unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f %change

Production Mt 696 655 690 5.3

- China Mt 118 121 121 0.3

- European Union 27 Mt 137 130 138 6.0

- India Mt 87 95 90 - 5.1

- Russian Federation Mt 56 38 53 40.5

- United States Mt 54 62 55 -10.3

Consumption Mt 692 676 687 1.6

- human Mt 461 464 471 1.6

- feed Mt 146 130 132 1.7

Closing stocks Mt 197 177 180 1.7

Stocks-to-use ratio % 29 26 26 0.1

Trade Mt 145 130 142 9.2

Exports aCountry Unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f %change

- Argentina Mt 13 6 8 45.5

- Australia b Mt 23 21 19 - 9.4


Country Unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f %change

- Canada Mt 18 18 19 2.8

- European Union 27 Mt 17 22 23 5.5

- Kazakhstan Mt 11 7 7 2.9

- Russian Federation Mt 22 11 17 61.7

- Ukraine Mt 5 7 8 14.3

- United States Mt 29 28 27 - 5.4

Price c US$/t 299 348 315 - 9.6

AustraliaCategory Unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f %change

Area '000 ha 13 902 13 243 13 677 3.3

Production kt 29 905 22 079 25 399 15.0

Exports b kt 23 026 21 461 19 450 - 9.4

- value A$m 6 378 6 891 6 617 - 4.0

APW 10 net pool return A$/t 260 345 308 -10.9a Local marketing years. b July-June years. c US no. 2 hard red winter wheat fob Gulf, July-June. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Coarse grainsDavid Mobsby

The world coarse grains indicator price (US corn, fob Gulf) is forecast to fall by 13.5 per cent in 2013-14 to US$270 a tonne. The world indicator price for barley (French Rouen feed) is forecast to fall by 13.5 per cent to US$256 a tonne. These forecast price decreases are principally driven by an expected increase in world coarse grains supplies.

World coarse grains prices

f ABARES forecast.

Production

World coarse grains production is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013-14 to 1.24 billion tonnes, largely driven by a forecast increase in world corn production.

World coarse grains production

f ABARES forecast.

Barley

World barely production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013-14 to 134 million tonnes, largely driven by forecast production increases in the Russian Federation and the European Union.


Barley production in the Russian Federation is forecast to increase by 25 per cent in 2013-14 to 17.5 million tonnes, reflecting a forecast return to average yields from the below average yields achieved in 2012-13. Most barley grown in the Russian Federation is planted in spring; aside from some dryness reported in southern growing districts, spring conditions have been generally favourable.

In the European Union, the world's largest barley producer, barley production is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2013-14 to around 55 million tonnes, driven by an assumed increase in yields. However, the area planted to barley is expected to fall. Growing conditions for winter crops have been generally favourable, which has resulted in less winterkill than last season. The reduced incidence of winterkill is expected to limit the amount of land available for spring crops such as barley and corn. Additionally, below average temperatures in March have delayed the progress of spring planting and this is expected to result in some producers switching some land from barley to corn, which typically has a later planting window.

In Ukraine, barley production is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2013-14 to 7.0 million tonnes, which reflects a forecast increase in the average yield. However, cold spring conditions have slowed the progress of spring planting and, by late April, progress was well below the five-year average to 2012, which could lower the average yield below that being forecast.

In Canada, barley production is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2013-14 to 8.5 million tonnes. The forecast increase reflects an expected increase in the average yield after experiencing a below average season in 2012-13, assuming favourable seasonal conditions for the remainder of 2013-14. However, according to Statistics Canada, producers intend to reduce the area planted to barley by 2 per cent in 2013-14.

In Argentina, barley production is forecast to fall by 27 per cent in 2013-14 to 4.0 million tonnes, which is largely due to an expected fall in the area planted to barley. Producers are expected to switch from barley to wheat in response to an expectation of more favourable returns to wheat.

Corn

World corn production is forecast to rise by 12 per cent in 2013-14 to 960 million tonnes, driven by a forecast increase in production in the United States.

In the United States, corn production is forecast to increase by 29 per cent in 2013-14 to a record 355 million tonnes. This largely reflects a return to average yields from the drought-affected yields of 2012-13. Additionally, data published by the United States Department of Agriculture indicates that US producers initially intended to slightly increase the area planted to corn in 2013-14 to 39.4 million hectares, which would be the highest level since 1936. This forecast increase reflects producer responses to the favourable corn prices that prevailed in the lead-up to the planting window. However, prolonged cold and wet conditions during April delayed planting progress significantly and, while producers have made up for much of the early delay, the area planted to corn is now expected to be below initial intentions. Some of the area initially expected to be planted to corn is now expected to be planted to soybeans, which generally has a later planting window.


World corn production

f ABARES forecast.

In China, corn production is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013-14 to a record 214 million tonnes, driven by an expected increase in planted area. According to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, producers intend to increase the area planted to corn by 4 per cent in 2013-14. Although the domestic corn price has fallen slightly from the previous season, returns from growing corn remain favourable compared with production alternatives.

In the European Union, corn production is forecast to increase by 18 per cent in 2013-14 to 65 million tonnes. This mainly reflects a return to average yields from the below average yields in 2012-13. Additionally, some producers are expected to plant corn instead of barley due to delays in the spring planting of barley.

Ukrainian corn production is forecast to increase by 21 per cent in 2013-14 to 25 million tonnes, driven by an expected increase in planted area. Producers are expected to respond to favourable returns from growing corn. However, a mild winter is expected to result in a small reduction in the loss of winter crop to winterkill, compared with the previous season, and limit the expected increase in area planted to corn.

Forecast increases in coarse grains production in the major northern hemisphere exporting countries are expected to place downward pressure on coarse grains prices ahead of the 2013-14 planting window in the southern hemisphere. With southern hemisphere producers expected to face lower prices during their planting window for corn, they are expected to reduce planted area. In Argentina, corn production is forecast to decrease by 1 per cent to 26 million tonnes, with growers expected to switch some area to alternative crops offering more favourable returns. In Brazil, corn production is forecast to contract by 4 per cent in 2013-14 to 72 million tonnes, which reflects a return to average yields from the above average levels in 2012-13, in addition to the expected fall in planted area.

Consumption

World consumption of coarse grains is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013-14 to 1.22 billion tonnes, which mainly reflects higher feed demand from livestock producers in China and the United States. In 2013-14 world feed use of corn and barley is expected to rise by 8 per cent and 2 per cent to 560 million tonnes and 90 million tonnes, respectively. In China, the use of corn for feed is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013-14 to a record 153 million tonnes; in the United States, it is forecast to increase by 21 per cent to 135 million tonnes. Total barley consumption is forecast to rise by 1 per cent to 134 million tonnes.


World coarse grains consumption

f ABARES forecast.

World food, seed and industrial use of coarse grains is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013-14 to 499 million tonnes. This outlook is driven by an expected increase in corn-based ethanol production in the United States as producers respond to forecast lower corn prices and improved producer margins. In 2012 US ethanol production fell following the sharp rise in corn prices in mid-2012. Additionally, US gasoline refiners and importers will be required to meet an increase in the Renewable Fuel Standard blending obligations in 2013 and 2014.

Record corn production to increase world trade in 2013-14

World trade in coarse grains is forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2013-14 to 138 million tonnes, led by a 23 per cent increase in corn trade to 107 million tonnes. The United States is forecast to be the principal driver behind this growth, with an expected doubling in corn exports to 39 million tonnes following a forecast increase in supplies available for export. Additionally, Ukraine is forecast to increase its corn exports by 22 per cent to 16.5 million tonnes. In contrast, Brazil and Argentina are forecast to reduce exports by 14 per cent and 3 per cent to 19 million tonnes and 18 million tonnes, respectively, in response to forecast falls in production. Despite these forecast falls, Brazilian and Argentinean corn exports are expected to remain above their five-year averages to 2011-12.

World corn trade

f ABARES forecast.

World barley exports are forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013-14 to 20 million tonnes. This forecast increase is expected to be driven by higher exports from the


Russian Federation. Barley exports from the Russian Federation are forecast to increase by nearly two-thirds to 3.5 million tonnes. In contrast, barley exports from Canada are forecast to fall by 9 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes. A 6 per cent increase in Canadian barley production is not expected to increase supplies available for export because of low opening stocks and steady domestic demand. In Argentina, barley exports are forecast to decline by 27 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.0 million tonnes, in line with a forecast 27 per cent fall in production.

Record corn production to increase world stocks in 2013-14

Closing stocks of coarse grains are forecast to rise by 19 per cent in 2013-14 to 180 million tonnes with world production expected to exceed consumption by around 30 million tonnes. If realised this level of closing stocks will be the highest since 2009-10. Most of this forecast rise in stocks is due to higher corn production in the United States, where closing stocks are forecast to double to around 40 million tonnes. Closing stocks of coarse grains are forecast to remain largely unchanged in other major exporting countries.

Higher Australian production in 2013-14

Australian coarse grains production is forecast to increase by 9 per cent in 2013-14 to 11.4 million tonnes. Large increases in production are forecast for Australia's major coarse grains—barley and grain sorghum.

Barley production is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013-14 to 7.4 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in barley plantings and a generally favourable rainfall outlook for the growing season. For the eastern states, producers have increased area planted to barley because of dry seasonal conditions at the early stage of the planting window, leading to more barley plantings instead of canola. Although barley area is forecast to increase marginally in Western Australia, a forecast increase in yields from 2012-13 is expected to lead to a rise of 12 per cent in barley production to 2.2 million tonnes.

The area planted to grain sorghum, Australia's major summer coarse grain, is forecast to rise by 11 per cent in 2013-14 to 627 000 hectares. This reflects assumed favourable planting conditions in 2013-14 from the hot and dry conditions experienced in 2012-13. Production is forecast to increase by 22 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes.

Grain sorghum production in 2012-13 is estimated to have decreased by 23 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes, which largely reflects a 14 per cent decrease in planted area. In addition, yields are estimated to have fallen by 10 per cent from the previous season to around 3 tonnes a hectare.

Australian coarse grains production

f ABARES forecast.


Export earnings to fall in 2013-14

Coarse grain exports are forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2013-14 to 5.7 million tonnes. Despite an expected increase in domestic production, higher domestic feed grain demand is expected to lead to lower coarse grain exports in 2013-14. The value of coarse grain exports is forecast to decrease by 7 per cent in 2013-14 to $1.7 billion.

For barley, exports are forecast to fall by 2 per cent in 2013-14 to 4.7 million tonnes, while the value of exports is forecast to decline by 7 per cent to $1.4 billion. The volume of grain sorghum exports in 2013-14 are forecast to fall by 17 per cent to around 816 000 tonnes, with the export value falling by 13 per cent to around $231 million.

Australian coarse grains export value

f ABARES forecast.

Coarse grains outlook

WorldCategory unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f %change

Production Mt 1 155 1 130 1 243 10.0

- barley Mt 134 130 134 3.1

- corn Mt 884 859 960 11.8

Consumption Mt 1 155 1 144 1 215 6.2

Trade Mt 148 115 138 20.0



Corn price (fob Gulf, Jul-Jun)

US$/t 281 312 270 - 13.5

Barley price (fob Rouen, Jul-Jun)

US$/t 270 296 256 - 13.5

AustraliaCategory unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f %change

Area '000 ha 5 323 5 252 5 408 3.0

- barley '000 ha 3 718 3 680 3 752 2.0


Category unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f %change

- grain sorghum '000 ha 659 565 627 11.0

Production kt 12 457 10 455 11 431 9.3

- barley kt 8 221 6 761 7 417 9.7

- grain sorghum kt 2 239 1 721 2 108 22.5

Exports a kt 7 911 5 955 5 719 - 4.0

- value A$m 2 245 1 825 1 690 - 7.4

Feed barley price b A$/t 197 244 206 - 15.6

Malting barley price c A$/t 203 254 219 - 13.8a July-June years. b Feed 1, delivered Geelong. c Gairdner Malt 1, delivered Geelong. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture


OilseedsBeth Deards

Record supply of oilseeds to drive price down

The world oilseeds indicator price (US soybeans, fob Gulf) is forecast to decline by 13 per cent in 2013-14 to US$520 a tonne. The prospect of record high soybean production and a significant rise in closing stocks are the primary drivers of this expected decline. However, lower than expected soybean production in the United States presents an upside risk to this price forecast. Soybean planting has been delayed in that country and if further delays result in a lower than expected area planted to soybeans, the world oilseeds indicator price may average markedly higher than currently forecast.

The world canola indicator price (Europe rapeseed, fob Hamburg) is forecast to fall by 4 per cent in 2013-14 to US$605 a tonne, reflecting higher world production and closing stocks. However, the combined influence of continued strong demand and a relatively low stocks-to-use ratio is expected to limit any significant decline in the world canola indicator price.

World oilseeds indicator prices (fiscal year)

f ABARES forecast.

Production to rise in 2013-14

World oilseeds production is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013-14 to a record 487 million tonnes as a result of expected production growth in all three major oilseeds—canola, soybeans and sunflower seed.

Canola

World production of canola is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2013-14 to 62 million tonnes, reflecting expected higher canola production in Canada and the European Union.

Canola production in Canada is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2013-14 to 14.5 million tonnes, which reflects an assumed return to favourable seasonal conditions and a forecast recovery in the average yield. However, the area planted to canola is forecast to fall by 9 per cent to less than 8 million hectares, despite relatively favourable canola prices at sowing time. The forecast decline in the area planted to canola will be the first since 2006-07 and is expected to be driven by rotational needs.


Canola planted area, Canada

f ABARES forecast.

In the European Union, rapeseed (canola) production is forecast to rise by 3 per cent in 2013-14 to almost 20 million tonnes, driven by an expected 2 per cent increase in planted area. Except for the United Kingdom, rapeseed in the European Union is generally in good condition. In contrast to last season, winterkill was minimal as snow cover on fields prevented major frost damage.

Soybeans

World production of soybeans is forecast to rise by 7 per cent in 2013-14 to a record 284 million tonnes. Soybean production is forecast to increase in all major producing countries.

In the United States, soybean production is forecast to rise by 12 per cent in 2013-14 to 91.7 million tonnes, driven by a forecast increase in planted area and an expected improvement in yield. The area planted to soybeans is forecast to rise by 3 per cent to 31.6 million hectares. However, the planting of soybeans has been delayed this season because of above average rainfall and producer decisions to complete the planting of corn first. By late May only 44 per cent of the intended area had been planted, compared with 87 per cent at the same time last year and a five-year average to 2012 of 61 per cent. If further delays occur, the forecast planted area may not be realised. Assuming favourable conditions for the growing season, yields are expected to recover from last year when drought adversely affected production.

Harvest of the 2012-13 soybean crop in Latin America was recently completed. Soybean production is estimated to have increased in Brazil and Argentina by 24 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively, to 81.5 million tonnes and 48.5 million tonnes.

In Brazil, the average yield in 2012-13 is estimated to have improved from last season's drought but to remain below the record achieved in 2010-11. While the average yield is estimated to have improved, many crops were adversely affected by dry conditions during the growing season and, in the main producing region of Mato Grosso, excessive rain at harvest time.

In Argentina, the average yield also improved in 2012-13 from last season's drought but was adversely affected by hot and dry conditions during the season and remained below the long-term average. In Paraguay, production is estimated to have almost doubled to 8 million tonnes, driven by a significant increase in the average yield.

In 2013-14 soybean production in Latin America is forecast to increase. In Brazil and Argentina production is forecast to increase by 4 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, to 85 million tonnes and 55 million tonnes. This forecast production, if achieved, would


be a record and would reflect an expected 2 per cent increase in planted area in each country as well as higher yields, assuming average seasonal conditions. Soybean production in Paraguay is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2013-14 at around 8 million tonnes.

World oilseeds production

f ABARES forecast.

Sunflower seed

World sunflower seed production is forecast to rise by 9 per cent in 2013-14 to 38.5 million tonnes. Production is forecast to increase significantly in the Black Sea region and the European Union, assuming seasonal conditions are more favourable than last season.

In the Black Sea countries of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, sunflower seed production is forecast to increase by 12 per cent and 6 per cent in 2013-14, respectively, to 9.4 million tonnes and 8.4 million tonnes. Returns to producers from growing sunflower seed have been favourable, despite prices falling from the highs recorded earlier this year, and producers in the Russian Federation are expected to increase the area planted to sunflower seed by 5 per cent. However, in Ukraine, low winterkill is expected to limit any significant increase in land available to sunflower seed. Yields are forecast to increase in both countries, particularly in Ukraine, assuming favourable seasonal conditions.

In the European Union, sunflower seed production is forecast to rise by 18 per cent in 2013-14 to around 8 million tonnes. The area planted to sunflower seed is forecast to remain relatively unchanged, with increases in planted area in Bulgaria, Spain, Italy and France expected to be offset by smaller planted area in Romania and Hungary. Assuming average seasonal conditions, yields are expected to increase significantly in 2013-14 from last season's drought-affected crop.

Sunflower seed production in Argentina is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013-14 to almost 3.5 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in planted area. The area planted to sunflower seed is forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2013-14 after flooding prevented full realisation of planting intentions in 2012-13. Yields are forecast to decline in 2013-14 from the above average yield achieved last season.

Strong demand for oilseed products drives crush

World oilseeds crush is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013-14 to 410 million tonnes. This forecast rise is expected to be driven by continued strong demand for vegetable oils and protein meals and supported by higher world oilseeds production.


In 2013-14 world soybean crush is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to 243 million tonnes, reflecting increased world supply of soybeans. In Paraguay, increased crushing capacity and higher production of soybeans in 2012-13 and 2013-14 are forecast to increase the crush to around 3.5 million tonnes. Two new crushing plants will commence operations this year, raising total crushing capacity to around 4 million tonnes. It is expected that most of the soybean oil and meal coming from the higher crush in Paraguay will be exported as there is limited domestic demand for these products.

Canola crush is forecast to increase by 1 per cent in 2013-14 to around 59 million tonnes. In China, the world's second largest canola crusher, crush is forecast to increase by 2 per cent to 15.3 million tonnes, supported by an increase in crushing capacity and higher imports of canola seed. Additionally, canola crush in Canada is expected to reach around 7 million tonnes in 2013-14 in response to high domestic and export demand for canola oil and canola meal.

Soybeans supply and use, Paraguay

f ABARES forecast.

Sunflower seed crush is forecast to rise by 6 per cent in 2013-14 to around 35 million tonnes. According to the European Commission, sunflower seed crush in the European Union is likely to rise by 12 per cent in 2013-14 to 6.6 million tonnes. This reflects higher domestic production of sunflower seed and strong demand for sunflower seed meal for livestock feed.

Record oilseed consumption in 2013-14

World oilseeds consumption is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2013-14 to a record 478 million tonnes. Oilseeds crush is forecast to account for around 86 per cent of total consumption.

World consumption of vegetable oils is forecast to increase by 4 per cent in 2013-14 to 162 million tonnes, driven by higher consumption in developing countries and industrial demand. World industrial use of vegetable oils (primarily biodiesel) is forecast to rise by 2 per cent in 2013-14 to 37.5 million tonnes. Industrial consumption of vegetable oils is expected to increase in Argentina as the biodiesel admixture mandate is raised gradually from 7 per cent to 10 per cent between April and June 2013. The decision to increase the mandate follows a fire at the main oil refinery in Argentina, which created a fuel shortage and raised reliance on imports. Additionally, the Argentinean biodiesel industry was suffering a downturn after an EU anti-dumping inquiry reduced export demand.

Total world consumption of protein meal, which is mostly for stock feed, is forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013-14 to 274 million tonnes with consumption of soybean, rapeseed and sunflower meal all expected to increase. In the Russian Federation, consumption of protein meal is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013-14 to almost 5


million tonnes, driven by growing demand from the pork and poultry industries. These industries have expanded substantially over the past decade, leading to increasing domestic demand for protein meals, particularly soybean meal and sunflower seed meal.

Protein meal consumption, Russian Federation

f ABARES forecast.

World trade to rise

World trade in oilseeds is forecast to rise by 10 per cent in 2013-14 to a record122 million tonnes, driven by expected record production and a forecast fall in world oilseed prices.

Soybean exports are forecast to increase by 10 per cent to 105 million tonnes, driven by an expected increase in demand for soybean oil and meal.

Canola exports are forecast to increase by 5 per cent in 2013-14 to 11.3 million tonnes, supported by strong demand and higher production in Canada. China is likely to increase imports of canola in 2013-14, reflecting relaxed restrictions on imports from Canada and Australia. In 2009 China placed restrictions on canola imports from Canada and Australia after some shipments tested positive for the fungus blackleg. Shipments from Canada resumed in 2010 to a restricted number of processing plants in areas in China where rapeseed is not grown. In early 2013 three additional crushing plants were approved to process shipments from Canada. Australian canola shipments to China resumed in May 2013 after an import protocol was finalised between Australia and China.

World trade in sunflower seed is forecast to increase by 2 per cent in 2013-14 to 1.6 million tonnes, largely as a result of increased supplies available for export and increasing demand.

Stocks-to-use ratio still low for canola

World closing stocks of oilseeds are forecast to rise by 13 per cent in 2013-14 to 79 million tonnes, with the largest increase forecast for soybeans. Record soybean production is expected to exceed consumption, leading to a 15 per cent increase in stocks to around 70 million tonnes. This is slightly below the record in 2010-11. World canola stocks are forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 3.2 million tonnes, following a significant fall in 2012-13. The stocks-to-use ratio for canola is forecast to remain relatively low at around 5.1 per cent, compared with an average of 11 per cent for the five years to 2011-12. World sunflower seed closing stocks are forecast to rise by 18 per cent to 1.7 million tonnes, reflecting higher world production.


World canola closing stocks

f ABARES forecast.

Australian canola area to fall in 2013-14

The area sown to canola is forecast to fall by 17 per cent in 2013-14 to 2.5 million hectares. This reflects a forecast fall in area planted in south-eastern Australia, largely the result of low levels of soil moisture and insufficient rainfall during the planting window. The area planted to canola is forecast to decline by 34 per cent in New South Wales to 650 000 hectares, 33 per cent in Victoria to 390 000 hectares, and 18 per cent in South Australia to 238 000 hectares. In contrast, the area planted to canola in Western Australia is forecast to increase by 6 per cent to 1.2 million hectares, reflecting favourable seasonal conditions during the planting window.

Australian canola production is forecast to decline by 17 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.2 million tonnes, as the fall in area planted is expected to more than offset a forecast marginally higher average yield. Although the current outlook for seasonal conditions (June to August) favours above average yields in major cropping regions across Australia, low soil moisture in many regions means that timely and sufficient rainfall during the rest of the season will be critical.

Record exports in 2012-13

In the first 10 months of the 2012-13 financial year the volume of Australian canola exports increased year-on-year by 59 per cent to more than 3 million tonnes. This is 30 per cent larger than the volume of canola exported in 2011-12 as a whole. For 2012-13 as a whole canola exports are forecast to increase by 47 per cent to a record 3.4 million tonnes. Export earnings from canola are forecast to increase by 50 per cent to around $2 billion.

So far in the year, Belgium was the largest export destination for Australian canola, accounting for almost 30 per cent of shipments. Other major destinations included Pakistan and the Netherlands. Additionally, Australian exports to China resumed early this year. In April 2013, 40 000 tonnes of Australian canola was exported to China, the first shipment since 2009. Further shipments to China are expected over the coming months.

In 2013-14 the volume of canola exports is forecast to decline by 31 per cent to 2.4 million tonnes, reflecting expected lower domestic production and stocks. The value of canola exports is forecast to decline by 34 per cent to $1.3 million, driven by lower shipments and a forecast fall in canola export prices.


Australian canola exports by destination, July to April ('000 tonnes)

Country 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13

Belgium 128 453 829Netherlands 635 871 605Pakistan 2 78 496United Arab Emirates 33 35 360France 46 45 281Germany 177 276 176Bangladesh 9 15 104Japan 66 47 100China 0 0 40Other 9 71 22Total 1105 1891 3013

Oilseeds outlook

WorldCategory unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f %

change

Production Mt 438 463 487 5.2

Consumption Mt 455 459 478 4.1

- oilseed meal Mt 257 262 274 4.6

- vegetable oil Mt 150 155 162 4.5

Exports Mt 109 111 122 9.9



Soybeans indicator price US$/t 506 596 520 -12.8

Canola indicator price b US$/t 621 629 605 - 3.8

AustraliaCategory unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f %

change

Total production kt 5 289 5 487 4 835 -11.9

- winter kt 3 440 3 912 3 244 -17.1

- summer kt 1 849 1 576 1 590 0.9

Canola Production kt 3 427 3 898 3 230 -17.1

Exports c kt 2 323 3 413 2 352 - 31.1


Category unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

- value $m 1 344 2 011 1 331 - 33.8

Price c(delivered Melbourne)

A$/t 521 560 545 - 2.7

a Soybeans, US fob Gulf, July-June. b Rapeseed, Europe, fob Hamburg, July-June. c July-June years. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World, Hamburg; United States Department of Agriculture


SugarBenjamin K Agbenyegah

Lower sugar prices in 2013-14

The world indicator price for raw sugar (Intercontinental Exchange, nearby futures, no. 11 contract) is forecast to average US15 cents a pound in 2013-14 (October to September), 17 per cent lower than in 2012-13. The forecast price decline reflects a forecast of another large world sugar surplus (production less consumption) in 2013-14, the fourth in a row, lifting the world stocks-to-use ratio to the highest level since 2003-04. The forecast price, if realised, will be the lowest in five years, but above the average of US14.5 cents a pound (in constant 2012-13 dollars) over the 10 years to 2011-12.

Indicator price, Intercontinental Exchange (daily, ended 13 June 2013)

World sugar indicators

f ABARES forecast.

Record world sugar production in 2013-14

World sugar production is forecast to increase to a record 182.2 million tonnes in 2013-14, 500 000 tonnes more than in 2012-13. The forecast increase largely reflects rises in world sugarcane plantings in recent years in response to favourable world prices, particularly in Brazil. Larger sugar production in Brazil, Thailand, China and Australia is forecast to be only partially offset by lower production in Europe, the United States, India and Mexico in 2013-14.


Forecast change in world sugar production

f ABARES forecast.

Sugar production in Brazil is forecast to increase by around 7 per cent in 2013-14 (October to September) to a record 43.5 million tonnes. The forecast increase is driven by a rise in sugarcane planting and a renewal of old sugarcane plantings in response to favourable world sugar prices and recovery from adverse seasonal conditions encountered in 2012-13.

The proportion of sugar cane to be used to produce sugar, rather than ethanol, in Brazil is forecast to decline by 2 percentage points in 2013-14 to 48 per cent. This decline is based on a recent increase in the mandatory blending ratio of anhydrous ethanol with gasoline from 20 per cent to 25 per cent, effective from 1 May 2013. Brazilian domestic sugar prices are currently below ethanol parity and this is expected to favour using a larger proportion of cane for ethanol rather than sugar production.

Sugar cane production and allocation, Brazil

f ABARES forecast.

Chinese sugar production is forecast to increase by around 5 per cent in 2013-14 to 14.6 million tonnes. The forecast reflects an assumed 15 per cent increase in average yields, more than offsetting the effects of an estimated 10 per cent decline in sugar plantings in 2013-14. Lower world sugar prices are causing Chinese farmers to move away from cane and sugar beet production into alternatives, such as corn, rice, cassava, vegetables and horticulture.


Sugar production in Thailand is forecast to be around 10.6 million tonnes in 2013-14, 2.4 per cent more than in 2012-13. The forecast increase is based on planted areas similar to 2012-13 and an assumed recovery from the drought-affected yields of 2012-13.

In India, sugar production is forecast to decline by 5 per cent in 2013-14—the first decline in five years—to 25.3 million tonnes, reflecting an estimated 5 per cent reduction in cane plantings. Apart from lower prices, another contributing factor to the decline in plantings was low carryover of irrigation water from the poor 2012 monsoon. The monsoon that usually starts in early June is a crucial determinant of Indian sugar production. The Indian Department of Meteorology is forecasting normal levels of rainfall for the 2013 monsoon.

In the United States, sugar production is forecast to decrease by 9 per cent in 2013-14 to 7.6 million tonnes. This mainly reflects a 1.5 per cent reduction in sugar beet plantings compared with 2012-13 and around 8 per cent lower average yields. The forecast decline in sugar beet planting is mainly driven by unusually wet and cold conditions at the time of planting.

Mexican sugar production is forecast to decline by 6 per cent in 2013-14 to 6.1 million tonnes. The forecast decline reflects a 5 per cent reduction in sugarcane plantings and lower yields due to dry planting conditions.

Sugar production in the European Union is forecast to be 16.8 million tonnes in 2013-14, 3 per cent lower than in 2012-13. EU sugar policy reforms, phased in from 2006, have led to lower EU sugar production (see box).

Sugar production in Europe, excluding the European Union, is forecast to decrease by 14 per cent in 2013-14 to 8.1 million tonnes. Sugar production in the Russian Federation and Ukraine is forecast to decline by 12 per cent to 4.5 million tonnes and 13 per cent to 2.1 million tonnes, respectively. Reduced plantings are only partially offset by expected higher yields.

Sugar reforms in the European Union

Max Foster

The European Union instituted a number of reforms to the Common Market Organisation for sugar in 2006 aimed at reducing EU sugar production to sustainable levels. EU sugar policy reforms that were phased in from 2006 have led to lower EU sugar production.

Sugar production quotas (refined) were reduced from 17.4 million tonnes in 2005-06 (25 countries) to 13.3 million tonnes (14.5 million tonnes in raw sugar equivalent) from 2006-07 (27 countries), using incentive payments to encourage voluntary renunciations of quotas by growers.

The guaranteed minimum price paid to sugar beet growers for quota sugar production was reduced from €47.7 a tonne of beet to €26.3 a tonne.

The reference price for white sugar was lowered from €631.9 a tonne in 2007-08 to €541.5 on 1 October 2008 and then €404.4 on 1 October 2009. Private storage aid can be activated if EU market prices fall below 85 per cent of the reference price, in effect setting a floor for EU sugar prices.

Quotas on duty free imports from certain African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries and least developed countries (LDCs) were removed from October 2009. A safeguard clause was introduced, applying until 2015, which is triggered when EU sugar imports exceed 3.5 million tonnes (refined) in a single year. The European Union also operates a number of reduced or zero-duty tariff import quotas for sugar


that total slightly over 1 million tonnes, but a very high tariff is applied to sugar imports from all other countries.

EU sugar production remains above its quota of 13.3 million tonnes. Strict rules apply to the use of over-quota EU sugar production. It can be exported up to the World Trade Organization limit of 1.35 million tonnes (refined); used for biofuel production or other industrial non-food uses; or counted against next year's quota for sugar production.

The reforms have been successful in lowering EU sugar production. The European Union has shifted from being a net exporter of sugar to being a net importer, with EU sugar consumption now higher than production.

European Union sugar production, consumption and trade a

a Raw equivalent; 27 countries in all years.

The reforms initially led to a narrowing in the gap between world and registered EU sugar prices (the prices reported paid by food manufacturers). More recently, the gap between EU and world sugar prices has widened again. This is due to countries with preferential access to the EU sugar market being unable to meet the EU sugar deficit at world prices and the prohibitively high duty on sugar imports from other countries.

European Union white sugar prices, monthly

In response, the European Union has introduced a number of allowable temporary measures, including opening additional import quotas at reduced tariff rates and diverting over-quota sugar to food uses.

However, without large-scale easing of import restrictions from non-ACP/LDC countries, EU domestic sugar prices are likely to remain much higher than world sugar prices over


at least the next year, based on expected sugar production in the ACP and LDC countries.

Strong world sugar consumption growth

World sugar consumption is forecast to be 176.4 million tonnes in 2013-14, 2.7 per cent higher than in 2012-13, based on forecast lower sugar prices and growth in world population and incomes, particularly in China, India and Brazil. The forecast consumption growth, if realised, will be the highest in eight years and above the average of 2.2 per cent for the 10 years to 2011-12.

World sugar surplus/deficit and stocks-to-use ratio

f ABARES forecast.

World sugar trade to grow in 2013-14

World sugar exports are forecast to grow by 5 per cent in 2013-14 to 58.7 million tonnes, reflecting increases in world sugar supplies available for exports in Brazil, Thailand and Australia and strong import demand for sugar by the Russian Federation and Indonesia.

Brazilian sugar exports are forecast to increase by 11 per cent in 2012-13 to a record 29.4 million tonnes. This forecast increase is based on a forecast record production and continued strong import demand for Brazilian raw sugar.

Thailand's sugar exports are forecast to increase by 24 per cent in 2012-13 to 8.5 million tonnes, reflecting an increase in the supply of sugar available for export after adverse seasonal conditions last season.

Sugar imports into the United States are forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.8 million tonnes in response to lower production.

Sugar imports into the Russian Federation are forecast to be 1.5 million tonnes in 2013-14, 97 per cent more than in 2012-13. The forecast increase is in response to forecast lower domestic sugar production.

In Indonesia, sugar imports are forecast to increase by 16 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.5 million tonnes. The forecast increase is driven by an expected rise in demand for sugar, while domestic sugar production is forecast to grow by only 4 per cent to 2.7 million tonnes.


Forecast changes in world sugar net exports, by country

f ABARES forecast.

Record world sugar stocks in 2013-14

World closing stocks of sugar are forecast to reach a record 75.3 million tonnes in 2013-14, 8 per cent larger than in 2012-13. The world stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to rise by 2.2 percentage points in 2013-14 to around 43 per cent, well above the average of 40 per cent for the 10 years to 2011-12. These rising world stocks will continue to place downward pressure on world sugar prices.

Australian sugar production larger in 2013-14

Australian sugar production is forecast to be 4.5 million tonnes in 2013-14, 6 per cent larger than in 2012-13. This forecast is based on an estimated 2 per cent increase in the area harvested and an assumed 4 per cent rise in average sugar yields.

Queensland Sugar Limited (QSL), the marketer of more than 90 per cent of Australia's raw sugar exports, forecasts its gross harvest pool return in 2013-14 to be $380 a tonne IPS (International Polarity Scale), down from $429 in 2012-13 and $518 a tonne IPS in 2011-12. However, QSL notes that the final harvest pool return depends on future movements in world sugar prices and the Australian exchange rate. The forecast return for 2013-14 is still higher than the 10-year average to 2008-09 for the seasonal pool of $366 a tonne IPS in 2012-13 dollars (QSL's seasonal pool arrangement was replaced in 2012-13 by a harvest pool arrangement).

Based on the current price forecast and assumed sugar yields from cane, the average mill-gate return to Australian cane growers in 2013-14 is forecast to be around $29 a tonne, compared with $33 a tonnes in 2012-13. The decline in returns to growers reflects forecast lower world sugar prices in 2013-14, partially offset by an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.

Australian sugar exports are forecast to increase by 8 per cent in 2013-14 to 3.2 million tonnes, driven by a forecast increase in production. However, the value of Australian sugar exports is forecast to decline to $1.29 billion in 2013-14, compared with $1.4 billion in 2012-13, due to lower world sugar prices, despite an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar.


Australian sugar production, exports and returns to cane growers

f ABARES forecast.

Sugar outlook

World aCategory unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

Production Mt 174.3 181.7 182.2 0.3

- Brazil Mt 36.9 40.6 43.5 7.1

Consumption Mt 168.0 171.7 176.4 2.7

Exports Mt 54.3 55.9 58.7 5.0

Closing stocks Mt 63.8 69.5 75.3 8.3

Change in stocks Mt 5.4 5.7 5.8 1.8


Price USc/lb 22.7 18.0 15.0 -16.7

Australia bCategory unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

Area '000 ha 370 380 388 2.1

Production c kt 3 683 4 300 4 541 5.6

Exports kt 2 572 2 996 3 241 8.2

- value A$m 1 556 1 397 1 290 - 7.7a October—September years. b July-June years. c Raw tonnes actual. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; International Sugar Organization


CottonBenjamin K Agbenyegah

Modest recovery in world cotton prices in 2013-14

The world indicator price for cotton (Cotlook 'A' index) is forecast to rise by 3.4 per cent in 2013-14 (August to July) to average US90 cents a pound. The forecast increase reflects expected lower world cotton production and growth in world cotton consumption in 2013-14, combined with an assumed continuing build-up of China's strategic cotton reserve. The stocks-to-use ratio for the world as a whole is forecast to rise to a record in 2013-14. However, if China is excluded the ratio would be the lowest since 2003-04.

With China holding 57 per cent of the world's cotton stocks at the end of 2012-13 its cotton stock management policies will be an important determinant of world cotton prices in 2013-14. It is assumed that China will continue to accumulate cotton stocks in 2013-14, mainly through purchasing domestic cotton production, to support returns to domestic cotton growers. However, if China were to stop purchases of cotton for stock building, world cotton prices in 2013-14 could be significantly lower than currently forecast.

Daily cotton prices, China

World cotton indicators (annual)

f ABARES forecast.


World cotton production lower in 2013-14

World cotton production is forecast to decline by around 3 per cent in 2013-14 to 25.7 million tonnes, based on an estimated 3 per cent fall in world cotton plantings in response to lower cotton prices. Lower cotton production is forecast for China, the United States and Turkey in 2013-14, more than offsetting forecast production increases in India, Pakistan and Brazil.

Forecast changes in world cotton production, by country

f ABARES forecast.

In the United States, cotton production is forecast to decline by 19 per cent in 2013-14 to 3 million tonnes in response to lower cotton prices and relatively poor soil moisture profiles, particularly in the dryland cotton growing areas of Texas, due to adverse seasonal conditions. The area planted to cotton in the United States in 2013-14 is estimated to decline by 19 per cent to 4.1 million hectares, the lowest in four years. The abandonment rate (the area planted but not harvested because of poor yields) is forecast to be 16 per cent in 2013-14, down 3.5 percentage points from 2012-13, but still high compared with the average of 12.5 per cent for the 10 years to 2011-12. The average lint yield in 2013-14 is forecast to be around 751 tonnes a hectare.

Cotton area and lint yield in the United States

f ABARES forecast.

Cotton production in China is forecast to decrease to 7.4 million tonnes in 2013-14, around 3 per cent lower than in 2012-13. This reflects a forecast 4 per cent reduction in planted area, which more than offsets the effects of a forecast small increase in average yield. Despite the Chinese Government's strong cotton support price program, rising


costs of production, in particularly labour costs, are constraining growth in cotton planting.

In India, cotton production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent in 2013-14 to 6 million tonnes, based on an estimated 2 per cent rise in area planted to cotton and a forecast 4 per cent increase in average yield. The forecast increase in average yield reflects a return to more normal yields, following a monsoon season that in 2012 delivered rain 8 per cent below the long-term average.

Cotton production in Pakistan is forecast to be 2.2 million tonnes in 2013-14, around 10 per cent more than in 2012-13. The forecast reflects an assumed 14 per cent increase in average yields, more than offsetting the effects of an estimated 3 per cent decline in cotton plantings in 2013-14. The assumption of higher yields is based on a return to more normal seasonal conditions in 2013-14. Improved seasonal conditions reduce susceptibility to the leaf curl virus that adversely affected Pakistani cotton yields in 2012-13.

In 2013-14 Brazil's cotton production is forecast to increase by 21 per cent to 1.5 million tonnes. The forecast increase reflects an estimated 11 per cent increase in cotton plantings in response to relatively higher domestic cotton prices and an assumed 10 per cent rise in average yield, based on adoption of new genetically modified cotton varieties. Brazil is an important participant in the world cotton market, with a well-developed marketing system for cotton, but insect and weed pest problems have hindered cotton industry development in recent years (see box).

Cotton industry in Brazil

Brazil is an important producer, consumer and exporter of world cotton. It has been the fifth largest world producer and consumer of the fibre since 2003-04. Brazil has also ranged from the world's third to fifth largest exporter in recent years, competing with the United States in the Asian and European markets. On average, it accounted for around 6 per cent of world cotton production and exports and 4 per cent of world cotton consumption in the 10 years to 2012-13.

Cotton indicators, Brazil

f ABARES forecast.

Cotton contributes significantly to Brazil's agricultural production and foreign exchange earnings. In 2010 the gross value of cotton production in Brazil was US$7.1 billion, accounting for 2.3 per cent of the total value of Brazilian agricultural production.

Brazil has the potential to expand planted cotton areas and to improve lint yields and lint quality by investing in irrigation projects. Currently less than 10 per cent of Brazil's cotton is irrigated.


New genetically modified cotton varieties—to be released in Brazil in 2013-14—will enable more effective control of insect and weed pests. Brazil could, as a result, enjoy renewed expansions in production over the medium term. Since 2006 Brazil has approved 12 genetically modified cotton varieties for commercial use. The adoption rate of genetically modified varieties is expected to reach more than 60 per cent of total plantings in 2013-14, compared with 40 per cent in 2012-13. The new varieties have two Bacillus thuringiensis genes that confer resistance to attack by many insects (particularly lepidopterans) and/or double copies of genes that confer herbicide tolerance up to the reproductive stage of cotton plant development.

The Brazilian Government sets a minimum support price for cotton at the beginning of each season, based on expected domestic and international supply and demand. The government can either intervene in the auction market at any time to buy cotton at the set minimum support price or through a marketing program called Premio Equalizador Pago ao Produtor (that is Equalising Premium Paid to Grower), with the premium at the difference between the minimum support price and the auction price. In 2009 the program subsidised around 65 per cent of Brazil's cotton production. However, world prices in recent years have been higher than the minimum support price, which has not changed since 2004.

Brazilian prices for cotton and government cotton stocks

Over the past decade Brazil's cotton processing industry has contracted under increasing pressure from cheap textile imports, particularly from China and India. In 2005 China entered into an agreement to limit its textile exports to Brazil through a quota arrangement. This agreement expired in 2008 and Brazil and China have not reached a new agreement.

The decline of Brazil's textile industry is the main reason that Brazil's raw cotton exports have increased sharply in recent years.

Weak growth in world cotton consumption in 2013-14

World cotton consumption is forecast to increase by 2.1 per cent in 2013-14 to 23.9 million tonnes. This modest increase largely reflects forecast economic growth in developing countries, particularly China and India. However, world cotton consumption growth is being constrained by strong competition from alternative fibres, particularly polyester, partly the result of cotton prices remaining above polyester prices.


Cotton and polyester shares in world fibre consumption

f ABARES forecast.

World weekly apparel fibre prices

Record world cotton stocks in 2013-14

World closing stocks of cotton are forecast to increase by 9 per cent in 2013-14 to a record 20.2 million tonnes, equivalent to world mill use for more than 10 months. The world cotton stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to increase for the fourth year in a row to a record 84.4 per cent.

China is forecast to account for much of the increase in world cotton stocks in 2013-14 under the assumption of a continuation of its policy to build its strategic cotton reserve, albeit at a slower rate than in 2012-13. In 2012-13 China added 6.5 million tonnes of cotton purchased from its domestic crop to its national reserve. China's share of world cotton stocks is forecast to increase to 63 per cent by the end of 2013-14.

If China is excluded, the world stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to decline to 46.4 per cent by the end of 2013-14, the lowest since 2003-04.


Stocks-to-use ratio for cotton

f ABARES forecast.

World trade lower in 2012-13

World cotton exports are forecast to be 8.6 million tonnes in 2013-14, 12 per cent lower than in 2012-13. This forecast decrease reflects expected lower cotton production and higher domestic consumption in major exporting countries, particularly the United States, India and Brazil, and a forecast lower import demand by China.

China's cotton imports are forecast to decline by around 34 per cent in 2013-14 to 2.6 million tonnes, as rebuilding of China's strategic reserve slows. The forecast Chinese cotton imports, if realised, will be less than half the record 5.3 million tonnes imported in 2011-12 and the lowest in four years.

Cotton exports by the United States—the world's largest exporter—are forecast to decrease by 13 per cent in 2013-14 to 2.5 million tonnes, reflecting forecast lower domestic production.

In India, cotton exports are forecast to be 1.2 million tonnes in 2013-14, 21 per cent lower than in 2012-13, reflecting a reduction in cotton supplies available for export and lower import demand from China, which was very strong in 2011-12 and 2012-13.

Australian cotton production largely unchanged in 2013-14

Australian cotton production (harvested from March to July) is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 995 000 tonnes, compared with an estimated 992 000 tonnes in 2012-13 which was Australia's second largest cotton harvest. The forecast cotton production in 2013-14 is expected to be supported by plentiful supplies of irrigation water and favourable gross margins compared with alternative irrigated crops. An assumed return to more normal soil moisture profiles in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales should enable dryland cotton plantings to recover to 51 000 hectares in 2013-14, up from the small plantings of 23 000 hectares in 2012-13.

The average storage level of public irrigation dams serving the Australian cotton-growing regions was 72 per cent of capacity on 14 June 2013, down from around 90 per cent at the same time in 2012. Under the assumption of favourable seasonal conditions, normal seasonal inflows into the main cotton irrigation dams are expected between now and the end of the cotton planting window that will extend from September to mid-November 2013.


Storage levels of main irrigation dams, at 14 June 2013

Recovery in Australian cotton prices

The return to Australian cotton growers at the gin-gate is forecast to increase by 3 per cent in 2013-14 to $472 a bale (227 kilograms) of lint (including the value of cottonseed and net of ginning costs), reflecting the forecast modest rise in world cotton prices and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar. The forecast return to cotton growers is lower than the average of the 10 years to 2011-12 of $560 a bale, but still favourable when compared with returns for production alternatives.

Forward cash prices for lint on offer to Australian cotton growers at 17 May 2013 were around $450 a bale for 2013 delivery (2013-14 crop) and $449 a bale for 2014 delivery.

Australian cotton exports lower in 2013-14

Australian cotton exports are forecast to be 998 000 tonnes in 2013-14, 12 per cent lower than the record 1.1 million tonnes of 2012-13. This forecast decrease reflects lower cotton production in 2012-13 and 2013-14. Almost all Australian cotton production is exported and the typical March to June harvest period means Australian cotton production in one financial year is exported across two financial years. Based on current forecasts for cotton production around the world, Australia would maintain its position as the world's third largest exporter of cotton, behind the United States and India.


Australian cotton production, exports and gin-gate returns

a Value of lint and cottonseed, less ginning costs. f ABARES forecast.

Cotton outlook

World aCategory unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

Production Mt 27.2 26.4 25.7 - 2.7

Consumption Mt 22.3 23.4 23.9 2.1

Exports Mt 10.0 9.8 8.6 -12.2

Closing stocks Mt 15.5 18.5 20.2 9.2

Stocks-to-use ratio % 69.4 78.8 84.4 7.1

Cotlook 'A' index USc/lb 100.1 87.0 90.0 3.4

Australia bCategory unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

Area harvested '000 ha 600 442 445 0.7

Lint production kt 1 198 992 995 0.3

Exports kt 994 1 123 988 -12.0

- value A$m 2 736 2 352 2 174 - 7.6a August-July years. c July-June years. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; United States Department of Agriculture


Agriculture - LivestockBeef and vealClay Mifsud and Caitlin Murray

The Australian weighted average saleyard price of beef cattle is forecast to fall by 5 per cent in 2013-14 to 280 cents a kilogram (dressed weight). Increased supplies of slaughter cattle into saleyards and lower demand for restocker cattle are expected to continue placing downward pressure on cattle prices in the short term. Internationally, demand for lower value frozen beef is expected to continue rising, while demand for higher value chilled beef is expected to fall. This is likely to adversely affect average export prices, which will in turn place downward pressure on domestic saleyard prices.

Average Australian cattle prices are estimated to have fallen by 10 per cent in 2012-13 to 296 cents a kilogram (dressed weight), the lowest yearly average in real terms since 1998-99. Saleyard prices averaged 6 per cent lower than the previous year over the first six months of 2012-13, with sharper declines occurring from January onwards. After a failed wet season in the north and little prospect of an autumn break, cattle throughput and slaughter increased. With widespread rainfall deficiencies, many producers began selling cattle and as a result of the increased supply prices declined. Adding further pressure to markets, fewer producers were in a position to restock resulting in lower demand for younger store cattle.

Cattle slaughter and weighted average saleyard price, Australia

f ABARES forecast.

Cattle herd to contract

The national cattle herd is estimated to have fallen by 1 per cent in 2012-13 to 28.1 million head, reflecting increased cattle slaughter. Since early 2013 the poorer seasonal conditions in eastern and northern Australia have resulted in many producers not having sufficient pasture to support their herd sizes. As a result, they are sending more of their older cattle to slaughter and purchasing fewer young replacement cattle. In 2013-14 the Australian cattle herd is forecast to fall by 1 per cent to 27.9 million head as producers continue to destock.

Cattle slaughter and beef production to rise

Australian cattle slaughter in 2012-13 is estimated to increase by 7 per cent to 8.4 million head, the first increase in six years. This reflects an estimated 13 per cent increase in female cattle slaughter and a 3 per cent increase in male cattle slaughter. In


response to the deteriorating seasonal conditions many producers halted previous efforts to rebuild herds and sent an increasing number of cattle to slaughter, particularly breeding females.

Cattle and calf slaughter, Australia, monthly, nine months to March

Beef and veal production in 2012-13 is estimated to increase by 5 per cent to a record 2.2 million tonnes, reflecting the increase in cattle slaughter. However, growth in production is estimated to be lower than growth in slaughter as a result of a decline in average carcass weights, which reflects the higher proportion of lighter female cattle being slaughtered.

In 2013-14 total cattle and calf slaughter is forecast to increase by a further 4 per cent to 8.7 million head. The proportion of female cattle slaughtered in 2013-14 is expected to rise as producers continue to destock. Higher cattle slaughter will underpin a 3 per cent forecast increase in beef and veal production to 2.3 million tonnes. Increased export demand from the United States and many emerging markets such as China, the Middle East and South-East Asia is forecast to contribute to increased cattle slaughter and beef production.

Record beef export volumes

Australian beef and veal exports are estimated to increase by 7 per cent in 2012-13 to a record 1.015 million tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting greater domestic supply and increased demand from a number of emerging markets. The share of Australian beef and veal production that is exported in 2012-13 is estimated to increase to 67 per cent. Relatively low growth in domestic demand for beef has resulted in most of the increase in production being exported. The major export markets for Australian beef remain Japan, the United States and the Republic of Korea, but exports to smaller and emerging markets in 2012-13 are estimated to comprise 36 per cent of total exports, the highest in more than 25 years. Growth in exports to China and the Middle East has offset a decline in exports to the largest market, Japan.

In 2013-14 Australian beef and veal exports are forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 1.07 million tonnes (shipped weight), in response to increased demand from the United States and emerging markets. In addition, an assumed lower Australian dollar is expected to improve the competitiveness of Australian beef in export markets. The value of beef exports in 2013-14 is forecast to increase by 5 per cent to around $5.1 billion.


Beef and veal exports, Australia

f ABARES forecast.

Increased competition from US beef in Japan

Australian beef and veal exports to Japan are estimated to fall by 8 per cent in 2012-13 to 300 000 tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting increased competition from imports of US beef. Since February 2013 exports of US beef to Japan have increased to their highest in 10 years, coinciding with changes to import policies made by the Japanese Government. From 1 February 2013 Japanese beef imports from the United States can now be sourced from cattle slaughtered at up to 30 months of age; previously a restriction had been in place limiting beef imports from cattle slaughtered at less than 21 months of age. As a result, the proportion of US beef production eligible for export to Japan has increased from 50 per cent to more than 90 per cent.

Beef and veal imports, Japan

f ABARES forecast.

In 2013-14 Australian beef and veal exports to Japan are forecast to fall by 7 per cent to 280 000 tonnes. Total beef imports in Japan are expected to stay relatively unchanged, but the share of US beef in the market is expected to continue rising at the expense of Australian beef. The increased presence of US beef (typically preferred over Australian grain-fed beef because of its higher marbling rates) is expected to result in lower exports of Australian grain-fed beef to Japan.

However, US grain-fed beef is less able to substitute for Australian frozen grass-fed beef, which makes up about 45 per cent of total Australian beef exports to Japan. Increased exports of US beef to Japan is unlikely to significantly affect exports of Australian frozen grass-fed beef over the coming year. This beef is used mainly in the foodservice sector to


produce ground beef, and is imported into Japan at a significant price discount to US beef.

US beef imports to rise in 2013-14

Australian beef and veal exports to the United States in 2012-13 are estimated to increase by 2 per cent to around 210 000 tonnes (shipped weight). US cow slaughter is estimated to be 2 per cent lower in 2012-13 compared with the previous year; the subsequent shortfall in domestic cow beef production was supplied by increased imports from New Zealand and Australia.

Australian beef exports to the United States have been facing greater competition from exports from New Zealand. Greater supply from New Zealand put downward pressure on US import prices, which resulted in some Australian exporters temporarily redirecting exports to other markets for manufacturing beef, such as China, where average export returns were higher. Adverse seasonal conditions in New Zealand prompted cattle slaughter to increase by an estimated 15 per cent in 2012-13, resulting in an increased supply of beef for export.

Beef and veal imports, United States

f ABARES forecast.

Australian beef and veal exports to the United States in 2013-14 are forecast to increase by 10 per cent to 230 000 tonnes (shipped weight), as the supply of cow beef in the United States declines and import prices rise. US cow slaughter is expected to fall over the coming year, which would result in lower domestic supplies for the grinding beef market and increased demand for imports. In particular, slaughter of dairy cows in 2013-14 is expected to decline compared with the previous year. Lower feed grain prices are expected to contribute to an improvement in the milk-to-feed price ratio, resulting in increased incentive for dairy producers to retain remaining herds. The increased US demand for imported manufacturing beef, and an assumed lower Australian exchange rate, is likely to lead to an increase in the 90CL import price in Australian dollar terms.

Republic of Korea

Australian beef and veal exports to the Republic of Korea are estimated to increase by 11 per cent in 2012-13 to 137 000 tonnes (shipped weight), reflecting the competitive pricing of Australian frozen beef in the Korean import market. Over the first 10 months of 2012-13 the landed price of Australian frozen beef in the Republic of Korea averaged US$4.14 a kilogram, 16 per cent less than the equivalent beef from the United States. In comparison, Australian chilled beef averaged around 6 per cent less than US chilled beef over the same period.


Australian beef and veal exports to the Republic of Korea are forecast to rise by 4 per cent in 2013-14 to 142 000 tonnes, underpinned by increased shipments of frozen beef. Frozen beef exports are likely to increase over the coming year as demand in the Republic of Korea continues to rise. This is likely to be partially offset by lower volumes of chilled beef because of increased competition from the United States.

Beef and veal import unit prices, Republic of Korea

Imports from Australia and the United States comprise more than 85 per cent of beef imports in the Republic of Korea, and are subject to different tariff rates. Currently, imports of Australian beef are levied at a 40 per cent rate, while imports from the United States are subject to a 34.66 per cent rate which, under the terms negotiated in the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement, falls by 2.6 per cent a year until reaching zero in 2026. It is unlikely the tariff differential of 5.34 percentage points in 2013 and 8 percentage points in 2014 will significantly affect exports of Australian frozen beef during 2013-14, given the 16 per cent difference in landed price before application of tariffs. However, the closeness in pricing of Australian and US chilled beef before application of tariffs may result in declining demand for Australian chilled beef.

Considerable increase in exports to China

Australian beef and veal exports to China are estimated to increase significantly in 2012-13, to around 92 000 tonnes (shipped weight) (see box). Since September 2012 monthly exports to China have averaged 9000 tonnes, compared with average monthly exports of around 500 tonnes over the five years to August 2012. In 2013-14 exports to China are forecast to increase to around 120 000 tonnes.

Increased exports to South-East Asia

Australian beef and veal exports to South-East Asia in 2012-13 are estimated to increase by 6 per cent to 95 000 tonnes (shipped weight). Increased exports to the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore have more than offset a 24 per cent decline in exports to Indonesia, which are being restricted by the Indonesian Government's maintenance of a quota on beef imports. On 27 May 2013 the Indonesian Government announced revised quota arrangements for beef imports, whereby 'premium Australian beef' will be exempt from quotas. However, details are not yet known on how 'premium Australian beef' will be defined, or how the revised import permits will be distributed.

In 2013-14 Australian beef and veal exports to South-East Asia are forecast to increase by 5 per cent to 100 000 tonnes. Growth in demand for beef in the region is expected to exceed growth in domestic production leading to increased imports, including from Australia.


Australian beef and veal exports to South-East Asia

f ABARES forecast.

Increased exports to the Middle East

Australian beef and veal exports to the Middle East are estimated to increase by 52 per cent to a record 47 000 tonnes (shipped weight) in 2012-13, partly reflecting bans placed on imports of beef from Brazil and the United States. Since the announcement of the detection of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in a deceased cow in California in April 2012, the Saudi Government has banned beef imports from the United States. In December 2012 it also placed a ban on beef imports from Brazil, after the announcement of the detection of BSE in a deceased cow in that country. As at June 2013 both import bans remain in place. In 2013-14 Australian beef and veal exports to the Middle East are forecast to rise by a further 6 per cent to 50 000 tonnes.

Australian beef and veal exports to the Middle East

f ABARES forecast.

Australian beef and veal exports to China

China has become the fourth largest market for Australian beef and veal exports in 2012-13, with most shipments delivered to ports around the major population centres of Shanghai and Beijing. The significant increase in exports to China reflects a number of factors, including increased numbers of Australian meat processors eligible to export to China, changes to Chinese Government import regulations, and greater Chinese demand for imported beef.


Australian beef and veal exports to China

f ABARES forecast.

Most Australian beef and veal exported to China in 2012-13 has been discharged at ports in the central and north-eastern regions of the country. Just under one-third of exports to China from July 2012 to May 2013 were discharged at Dalian, a city of more than six million people in Liaoning Province, in north-east China. Shanghai was a destination for around 29 per cent of Australian beef exports, while the ports of Tianjin and Xingang—both in close proximity to Beijing—each accounted for around 15 per cent. Exports to ports in southern China have been substantially lower, accounting for less than 8 per cent over the first 11 months of 2012-13.

The supply of Australian beef eligible to be exported to China increased in 2012-13 because of an increase in the number of Australian meat processing facilities approved to export to China. The Chinese Government approves foreign abattoirs on either an individual basis or following an assessment of the systems in place in that country. The number of Australian meat processing facilities approved to export to China has increased by more than 20 over the 12 months to June 2013

Australian beef and veal exports to China (11 months to May 2013), by discharge port

Australia has relatively favourable access arrangements to the Chinese beef import market compared with many other beef exporters. Imports from Canada are restricted to boneless beef from four meat processing plants, while imports from the United States are currently banned. Restrictions on imports from North America relate to the outbreak of BSE in late 2003. The Chinese Government also placed a ban on beef imports from Brazil after the announcement of the detection of BSE in a deceased cow in that country in late 2012. These restrictions have contributed to higher imports from other suppliers, such as Australia and New Zealand.


Stable production and rising domestic beef prices have resulted in demand for imported beef in China rising significantly over the past year. Imports over the first four months of 2013 have exceeded imports for the whole of 2012. Between January and April 2013 Australia accounted for 47 per cent of Chinese beef imports, with Uruguay and New Zealand accounting for the next largest shares (25 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively).

Beef and veal outlook


Cattle numbers a million 28.4 28.1 27.9 - 0.7

- beef million 25.7 25.4 25.2 - 0.8

Slaughterings '000 7 873 8 395 8 700 3.6

Production kt 2 115 2 230 2 300 3.1

Exports (shipped weight)Category unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

- to United States kt 205 210 230 9.5

- to Japan kt 326 300 280 - 6.7

- to Korea, Rep. of kt 123 137 142 3.6

- total kt 948 1015 1 070 5.4

- value A$m 4 467 4 840 5 080 5.0

PriceCategory unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

- saleyard Ac/kg 329 296 280 - 5.4

- US import USc/kg 433 438 450 2.7

- Japan import USc/kg 600 590 570 - 3.4a At 30 June. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry

Live animal exports

Live feeder and slaughter cattle

Australian exports of cattle for feeder and slaughter purposes are expected to decline by 17 per cent in 2012-13 to 480 000 head, which largely reflects expected falls in cattle exports to Indonesia, Egypt and the Middle East.

Exports to Indonesia in 2012-13 are estimated at 265 000 head, a decline of 110 000 head (29 per cent) from exports in 2011-12. This expected decline reflects the Indonesian Government's decision to lower its cattle import quota to pursue beef self-sufficiency. Indonesia plans to be 90 per cent self-sufficient in beef production by 2014. The Indonesian quota was set at 520 000 head in 2011 and was reduced to 283 000 head in 2012. A further reduction to 267 000 head for 2013 has been announced. In 2012-13 55 per cent of feeder and slaughter cattle exports from Australia are expected to go to Indonesia, compared with 83 per cent in 2008-09.


Exports to other parts of South-East Asia are expected to increase by 30 000 head in 2012-13 to 80 000 head, which reflects an increase in shipments to Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam. However, this expected increase is from a particularly low base, with current exports to the Philippines and Malaysia at around one-tenth and one-third, respectively, of their peaks recorded more than a decade ago.

Exports of cattle to North Africa and the Middle East are expected to fall by around 28 per cent in 2012-13 to 70 000 head, as a result of increasing competition in Israel and exporters stopping shipments to Egypt until issues associated with hormonal growth promotants are resolved. Cattle sent to Egypt in July 2012 were not slaughtered until October 2012 following Egyptian concerns about the cattle having been treated with hormonal growth promotants.

In Israel, Australia's largest market for cattle in the Middle East, imports have been increasingly sourced from Lithuania at a lower price. The average value per head of cattle sourced from Lithuania was around 40 per cent less than Australian cattle between 2006 and 2011. The reason for this differential is not known and may be due to a range of factors.

Live cattle exports, for feeder and slaughter purposes

f ABARES forecast.

In all other markets, exports of cattle are expected to increase by 14 per cent in 2012-13 to 65 000 head. Turkey is the largest of these markets and in 2012-13 exports to Turkey are expected to increase by 8000 head to around 45 000 head.

The value of live cattle exports for feeder and slaughter purposes is expected to decline by 20 per cent in 2012-13 to $329 million. This expected fall reflects the combined effects of the expected decline in the number of cattle exported and lower export prices. Export prices have fallen as a result of an increase in the supply of cattle available for export.

Live cattle exports for feeder and slaughter purposes are forecast to decline by a further 2 per cent in 2013-14 to 470 000 head. This reflects further tightening of import restrictions in Indonesia. However, exports to other markets in North Africa, the Middle East and South-East Asia are forecast to increase.

The value of live cattle exports is forecast to decline by 7 per cent in 2013-14 to $306 million, reflecting the forecast fall in the volume of cattle exports and expected falls in export prices. The supply of cattle available for export is expected to remain high, keeping downward pressure on export prices.

These forecasts assume that all live cattle supply chains approved under the Exporter Supply Chain Assurance System (ESCAS) remain compliant.


Live breeder and dairy cattle

Live breeder and dairy cattle exports are expected to increase by 5 per cent in 2012-13 to 110 000 head. The largest export markets for Australian breeder and dairy cattle in 2012-13 are China and the Russian Federation. Exports to China are expected to rise by almost 2 per cent to 60 000 head. In contrast, exports to the Russian Federation are expected to fall by 19 per cent to around 30 000 head. Dairy and breeder cattle exports to other markets, which include Pakistan, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, are expected to more than double in 2012-13 to 20 000 head.

With further growth in demand from China and other Asian markets expected, breeder and dairy cattle exports are forecast to reach 115 000 head in 2013-14. The value of exports is forecast to rise by 6 per cent to $259 million, up from an estimated $245 million in 2012-13.

Live sheep

The Middle East is expected to account for 92 per cent of Australia's live sheep exports in 2012-13. Turkey is expected to account for 7 per cent of exports and South-East Asia for the remaining 1 per cent. Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan are expected to be our biggest markets in the Middle East in 2012-13, together accounting for 82 per cent of total Australian live sheep exports.

Sheep exports are expected to decline by 27 per cent in 2012-13 to around 1.88 million head. This expected fall reflects the combined effects of trade disruptions in some markets as a result of ESCAS breaches and increasing competition in some Middle Eastern markets and Turkey.

Live sheep exports to Kuwait are expected to fall by 25 per cent in 2012-13 to 680 000 head, largely the result of reduced shipments following breaches of ESCAS in August 2012. From August 2012 the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry imposed additional requirements on Kuwaiti live sheep supply chains. A second investigation into Kuwaiti supply chains is being conducted following another allegation of non-compliance with ESCAS in January 2013.

In 2011-12 Bahrain was the third-largest market for sheep, after Kuwait and Qatar. In August 2012 the Australian live export industry voluntarily suspended exports of live sheep to Bahrain after difficulties in unloading a shipment. Exports to Bahrain are not expected to resume until a new memorandum of understanding has been negotiated.

Sheep exports to Qatar are expected to increase by 19 per cent in 2012-13 to 535 000 head. However, this increase is more than offset by estimated declines in exports to Jordan and Turkey. The expected falls in Jordan and Turkey largely reflect increasing export competition from Romania and Bulgaria. Romanian live sheep exports to Jordan have increased tenfold since 2009, reaching 285 000 head in 2011; Bulgarian exports to Turkey increased to 825 000 head in 2011 from zero in 2009.


Live sheep exports

f ABARES forecast.

The value of sheep exports is expected to fall by 43 per cent in 2012-13 to $197 million, reflecting the expected fall in the volume of exports and a fall in prices.

In 2013-14 the volume of sheep exports is forecast to remain low at 1.95 million head, with exports to the Middle East forecast to account for around 90 per cent of total exports. This forecast assumes all live sheep supply chains remain ESCAS compliant and those supply chains under investigation remain operational.

The value of sheep exports is forecast to increase to $224 million in 2013-14, largely the result of higher prices.

Australian live cattle and sheep exports

Month Live feeder/slaughter cattle Live breeder cattle Live sheep a

2008 March 183.0 15.2 993.22008 June 176.8 14.9 887.12008 September

226.8 6.9 1 099.4

2008 December

220.9 24.0 1 235.3


244.8 22.4 803.4

2009 December

249.4 25.1 1 031.7


213.4 9.7 865.0

2010 December

206.3 29.6 879.1


Month Live feeder/slaughter cattle Live breeder cattle Live sheep a


129.8 21.7 632.9

2011 December

164.6 32.7 652.6


140.4 28.8 443.6

2012 December

80.8 35.4 500.4

2013 March 111.0 21.5 506.3a Includes animals for breeding.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Australian live cattle and sheep exports, by destinations

Live cattle Feeder/slaughterDestinations unit 2007-

082008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Asia - Indonesia '000 546.9 699.9 699.6 456.0 375.5Asia - Japan '000 20.2 17.2 15.5 12.4 14.3Asia - Malaysia '000 24.2 19.5 4.6 19.7 19.3Asia - Philippines '000 15.5 10.3 14.4 15.6 23.8Middle East - Israel '000 59.0 27.7 36.4 50.4 60.5Middle East - Jordan '000 0.9 10.0 27.5 9.3 0.3Middle East - Saudi Arabia '000 10.3 23.0 7.7 19.5 0.0Other - Turkey '000 0.0 0.0 0.2 100.9 37.4Other - Egypt '000 0.0 0.0 33.4 23.1 32.1Total slaughter cattle '000 708.1 844.7 870.6 728.2 578.6

Breeding cattleDestinations unit 2007-

082008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

China '000 6.7 16.0 50.5 48.9 58.9Indonesia '000 0.0 1.6 18.5 1.3 0.7Russian Federation '000 12.8 13.8 9.4 10.5 36.9Total breeding cattle '000 61.1 46.4 86.9 76.8 104.7


Destinations unit 2007-08

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Total live cattle '000 769.2 891.1 957.5 805.0 683.3Value live cattle A$m 540.7 646.0 701.2 659.6 650.8

Live sheep aDestinations unit 2007-

082008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

Asia - Singapore '000 7.2 7.9 8.7 7.0 6.4Europe - Turkey '000 0.0 0.0 0.0 395.0 292.6Middle East - Bahrain '000 611.1 776.3 580.0 439.7 386.9Middle East - Israel '000 60.8 11.0 35.4 55.0 69.2Middle East - Jordan '000 288.5 314.4 446.9 212.6 348.5Middle East - Kuwait '000 972.0 923.9 953.6 1 154.0 901.5Middle East - Oman '000 740.4 562.2 135.0 50.3 32.0Middle East - Qatar '000 228.9 331.5 389.8 315.9 449.9Middle East - Saudi Arabia '000 948.1 943.0 319.5 153.6 0.0Middle East - United Arab Emirates

'000 184.2 146.9 101.2 66.2 44.1

Total live sheep '000 4 070.0 4 067.1 3 059.7 2 916.4 2 562.2Value live sheep A$m 287.2 340.1 297.8 348.1 345.0a Includes animals for breeding.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Outlook for live cattle and sheep exports

Live cattleCategory Unit 2011-

122012-13 f 2013-14 f %

change

Volume live cattle - Feeder/slaughter

'000 579 480 470 - 2.1

Volume live cattle - Breeder '000 105 110 115 4.5

Value live cattle - Feeder/slaughter A$m 412 329 306 - 7.0

Value live cattle - Breeder A$m 239 245 259 5.7

Live sheep aCategory Unit 2011-

122012-13 f 2013-14 f %

change

Volume live sheep '000 2 562 1 880 1 950 3.7

Value live sheep A$m 345 197 224 13.7

Total export value A$m 996 771 789 2.3


a Includes animals for breeding.Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Sheep meatKelly Chow

The Australian weighted average saleyard price for lamb is forecast to rise by around 5 per cent in 2013-14 to average 400 cents a kilogram, after falling by an estimated 20 per cent in 2012-13 to average 382 cents a kilogram. The forecast rise in saleyard prices reflects the combined effect of lower supplies and growing demand from main export markets. At this forecast level, the price will be around 13 per cent below the average over the 10 years to 2011-12 (462 cents a kilogram in 2012-13 dollars).

Australian lamb saleyard price and slaughter

f ABARES forecast.

The weighted average saleyard price for sheep is forecast to increase by 14 per cent in 2013-14 to average around 205 cents a kilogram, reflecting the effects of a fall in the number of adult sheep available for slaughter and growing demand from the Middle East and emerging markets in Asia. This forecast follows a sharp fall in sheep saleyard prices in 2012-13, declining by an estimated 45 per cent to average 180 cents a kilogram. At this forecast level, the price will be around 21 per cent below the average over the 10 years to 2011-12 (258 cents a kilogram in 2012-13 dollars).

Australian sheep saleyard price and slaughter

f ABARES forecast.


Australian sheep flock to fall

The Australian sheep flock is estimated to have declined by 1 per cent in 2012-13 to around 74 million head. This largely reflects a significant increase in turn-off of sheep and lambs for slaughter, while ongoing dry conditions and low prices discouraged restocking activity. The effect of these factors is expected to result in lower opening adult sheep numbers and a smaller ewe base at the start of 2013-14. As a result, a further contraction in the Australian sheep flock is forecast in 2013-14, with numbers falling by less than 1 per cent to around 73.6 million head.

Australian sheep flock

f ABARES forecast.

Lamb slaughter and production to fall

Australian lamb slaughter is forecast to fall by 8 per cent to around 20 million head in 2013-14, following an estimated record high of 21 million head in 2012-13, 12 per cent higher than in 2011-12. The forecast fall in 2013-14 reflects lower opening lamb numbers. Also, recent survey results released by Meat & Livestock Australia in February indicate a decline in scanning and lamb marking rates that are expected to result in a smaller supply of spring lambs in 2013.

Lamb production is forecast to fall by 7 per cent in 2013-14 to around 431 000 tonnes, mainly reflecting the forecast fall in lamb slaughter but partially offset by an expected improvement in average carcass weights. This forecast follows an estimated 11 per cent increase in lamb production in 2012-13 to around 464 000 tonnes, reflecting higher lamb slaughter more than offsetting the effect of a decline in average lamb carcass weights.

Dry seasonal conditions have resulted in lower carcass weights in all sheep producing states across Australia in 2012-13. In the nine months to March 2013, lamb carcass weights averaged 21.7 kilograms, 2 per cent lower than the corresponding period in 2011-12. The largest fall occurred in Tasmania (by 7 per cent to 20.4 kilograms) while other states recorded, on average, a 1 per cent decline in lamb carcass weights.


Australian average lamb carcass weight, by state, 9 months to March

Sheep slaughter and production to fall

Dry conditions persisting through the 2012-13 summer and a lack of autumn rainfall limited pasture growth, which led to a sharp increase in sheep turn-off. In the March quarter 2013 sheep slaughter rose by 72 per cent to around 2.5 million head compared with the corresponding three months in 2012. Total sheep slaughter rose in most states in the March quarter 2013, increasing by 122 per cent year-on-year in New South Wales (628 000 head), 113 per cent in Tasmania (103 000 head), 112 per cent in Western Australia (416 000 head), 48 per cent in Victoria (848 000 head), 59 per cent in South Australia (371 000 head) and 2 per cent in Queensland (111 000 head).

Adult sheep slaughter is forecast to be around 6.3 million head in 2013-14, a 20 per cent fall from an estimated 7.9 million head in 2012-13. With average sheep carcass weight expected to remain relatively unchanged, mutton production is forecast to fall by 18 per cent in 2013-14 to around 146 000 tonnes, down from an estimated 179 000 tonnes in 2012-13.

Australian sheep slaughter, monthly, July to March

Lower lamb exports

Reflecting the forecast fall in lamb supplies, Australian lamb exports are forecast to decline by around 12 per cent in 2013-14 to 177 000 tonnes (shipped weight). This follows an estimated 16 per cent increase in lamb exports in 2012-13. While the United States is expected to remain Australia's largest market, accounting for around 19 per cent of total lamb exports, markets in the Middle East and China are expected to account


for an increasing share of Australian lamb exports. Growth to these markets (and other smaller markets) has increased substantially. In the first 11 months of 2012-13 lamb exports were 40 per cent higher to the Middle East and 39 per cent higher to China compared with the same period a year earlier, rising to around 54 000 tonnes and 31 000 tonnes, respectively.

Australian lamb exports to the United States are forecast to fall by 11 per cent in 2013-14 to around 34 000 tonnes (shipped weight), following an estimated 9 per cent increase in 2012-13. This forecast mainly reflects lower lamb supplies to export.

The value of Australian lamb exports is forecast to decline by around 8 per cent to $977 million in 2013-14, reflecting the forecast fall in lamb export volumes, partially offset by forecast higher unit export prices for lamb.

Exports from New Zealand to fall in 2013-14

Australia's major competitor for lamb exports is New Zealand. In the first 10 months of 2012-13 New Zealand's sheep meat exports were around 327 000 tonnes (shipped weight), 33 per cent higher than the same period in 2011-12. Most of the increase in exports was destined for markets in China, the United Kingdom and the Middle East. Year-on-year lamb exports from New Zealand to China more than doubled (99 000 tonnes), and increased by 34 per cent to the United Kingdom (64 000 tonnes) and by around 21 per cent to the Middle East (28 000 tonnes). The increase in total lamb exports was underpinned by increased production as drought conditions in the North Island of New Zealand forced producers to increase turn-off.

In 2013-14 lamb exports are expected to be constrained by lower supplies in the North Island of New Zealand as the industry recovers from recent drought. This, combined with forecast lower Australian supplies, is expected to provide support to forecast higher Australian unit export returns.

New Zealand sheep meat exports, by destination, 10 months to April

Australian mutton exports to fall

With forecast lower sheep slaughter and mutton production, Australian mutton exports are forecast to decline by 24 per cent in 2013-14 to around 109 000 tonnes (shipped weight), following an estimated 62 per cent increase in 2012-13. In 2013-14 mutton demand is expected to continue rising in established markets in the Middle East as well as in emerging markets in South-East Asia and China. The Middle East is expected to remain the key market for Australian mutton exports. However, with forecast lower supplies for export, some substitution toward lamb for export to that region is possible.


Australian mutton exports to the Middle East in the 11 months to May 2013 increased by 19 per cent year-on-year to around 47 000 tonnes (shipped weight). This increase in exports was driven by an increase in supplies, coupled with lower sheep saleyard prices. Over this period 78 per cent of mutton exports were destined for four markets, including Saudi Arabia (31 per cent), Dubai (24 per cent), Kuwait (14 per cent) and Oman (9 per cent).

Reflecting rising incomes and shifting consumer food choices, Australian shipments of mutton to Asia, particularly to China and South-East Asia, have grown significantly over the past 10 years and are expected to continue rising in 2013-14. In the 11 months to May 2013 Australian exports of mutton to Asia more than doubled to around 59 000 tonnes year-on-year. The largest increase in mutton exports were to China (444 per cent), Malaysia (72 per cent), Indonesia (55 per cent) and Singapore (26 per cent). Together these four markets accounted for more than 80 per cent of total mutton exports to Asia.

Australian mutton exports, by destination, 11 months to May

Sheep meat outlook

SlaughteringsMeat type unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

Sheep '000 5 175 7 897 6 319 - 20.0

Lamb '000 18 879 21 234 19 574 - 7.8

Production aMeat type unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

Mutton kt 120 179 146 -18.4

Lamb kt 419 464 431 - 7.1

Exports (shipped weight)Category unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

Mutton kt 89 144 109 - 24.3

Lamb kt 174 202 177 -12.4

- to United States kt 35 38 34 -10.5



Total sheep meat kt 263 346 286 -17.3

- value $m 1 422 1 542 1 380 -10.5

Live sheep b '000 2 562 1 880 1 950 3.7

- value $m 345 197 224 13.7

Saleyard pricesMeat type unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

Mutton Ac/kg 330 180 205 13.9

Lamb Ac/kg 480 382 400 4.7a Carcass weight. b Includes animals for breeding. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry


WoolBrian Moir

The Australian Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) price for wool is forecast to strengthen by 5 per cent to average 1080 cents a kilogram clean in 2013-14 from 1035 cents a kilogram in 2012-13. This reflects the effects on wool demand of assumed economic recovery in the United States and continued robust economic growth in China, coupled with an expected small contraction in global supplies of wool. However, continuing weak economic growth in Europe and Japan is expected to constrain any significant improvement in the wool market in the coming year. At 1080 cents a kilogram the EMI would remain 10 per cent below the 2011-12 average.

Australian wool auction prices, by micron

Source: AWEX

The EMI price fell from 1244 cents a kilogram clean in mid-February 2012 to 927 cents a kilogram in the first week of September 2012. A subsequent recovery lasted until it reached 1138 cents a kilogram at the end of January 2013, but the market weakened between February and May 2013. The average for the 2012-13 season to 6 June was 1033 cents a kilogram, 14 per cent below the average for the 2011-12 season.

Margin for fine wool narrows

The premiums paid for finer wools declined through much of the 2012-13 season. In early November the margin between 17 micron and 23 micron wool was 373 cents a kilogram clean (36 per cent); by 7 June 2013 this margin had contracted to 157 cents (12 per cent). This reflects an increased supply of finer wool brought about by dry conditions, coupled with ongoing weak demand in Europe relative to other markets. Test data from the Australian Wool Testing Authority (AWTA) indicate that for the 10 months to April 2013, 56.1 per cent of wool tested was below 21.5 microns, compared with 52.7 per cent in the same period of the previous season.

Looking to the future, any recovery of price premiums for finer wools will depend on the supply of finer wools against the backdrop of an expected modest recovery of world demand for luxury wool products.


Australian wool micron profile, 10 months to April

Source: AWTA

Consumer demand to strengthen slightly

Global economic growth is assumed to recover only partially to 3.2 per cent in 2013, below its long-term potential of around 4 per cent. An assumed more significant recovery in 2014 is expected to provide increased support to the wool market.

Demand for wool appears to be strengthening in the United States in line with modest economic recovery and increased consumer spending. Domestic consumption of wool products has been stable for three years, while the most recent data on raw wool content of apparel imports show some increase in the first few months of 2013.

The European economies continue to perform poorly. Imports of wool yarn and fabrics to the European Union from China in 2012 were 18 per cent lower than the previous year, with trade in all clothing and textile items following a similar trend. Economic growth in Europe in 2013 and 2014 is expected to remain weak, and prospects for any marked recovery in demand for wool in 2013-14 are limited.

Economic growth in China, while high by international standards, slowed in 2012, with a consequent weakening in demand growth for wool. Textile manufacturing in China in the first three months of 2013 was only 4.1 per cent above the same period the previous year. Retail sales of all consumer goods in the three months to March 2013 continued to grow, but at a slower rate than in the same period in 2012. Economic growth in China is assumed to continue in 2013 and 2014 at a pace similar to 2012, supporting modest increases in China's domestic demand for wool products.

Wool becoming more competitive with other fibres

The degree to which cotton and polyester can be substituted in the production of wool blended products is one factor influencing the demand for wool. While wool's competitiveness against cotton and polyester has been improving since late 2012, it is weaker than it was in a number of years before 2011. In December 2012 the wool-to-cotton price ratio was at its highest peak for at least five years. Cotton prices subsequently strengthened while wool prices weakened a little so that in the period from December 2012 to May 2013 the price of wool, relative to the price of cotton, declined by 22 per cent.

Polyester prices firmed slightly between July 2012 and May 2013; consequently the price of wool relative to polyester declined by 13 per cent between December 2012 and May


2013 and is now well below the high of June 2011. Both cotton and polyester prices are expected to firm in 2013-14, thereby strengthening the competitiveness of wool.

Price ratios, wool to competing fibres

Shorn wool production declining with dry conditions

Dry conditions in many parts of Australia have affected wool production. As a result of increased turn-off, the sheep flock is forecast to decline by 2 per cent in 2013-14 to 73.6 million head, with a consequent reduction in the number of sheep shorn. The average cut per head is forecast to decline by 1.5 per cent in 2013-14.

The combined effect of the reduced number of sheep being shorn and the lower cut per head is expected to reduce shorn wool production from 357 000 tonnes in 2012-13 to 349 000 tonnes in 2013-14.

World wool production contracting

Australia dominates global production of wool, particularly for the finer apparel types. Wool production in the major producing countries of Australia, Argentina, New Zealand, South Africa and Uruguay is expected to contract by around 1.5 per cent in 2013-14, after expanding by 3 per cent in 2012-13. Production in Australia, South Africa and Uruguay—countries that produce mainly apparel wool—is forecast to contract by about 1 per cent in 2013-14.

New Zealand is the world's second largest wool producer, but its wool is generally coarser than Australia's. Production is expected to contract by more than 2 per cent in 2013-14, as stronger demand for sheep meat has driven up slaughtering.

South African production is likely to increase by 1000 tonnes (3 per cent), as recovery from an outbreak of Rift Valley fever continues. South Africa's production profile of fine and medium wools is closer to Australia's than production in other countries, and it competes closely with Australia for markets, such as China.

Production in Uruguay increased by 5 per cent in 2012-13 and is expected to increase by the same proportion in 2013-14.

In Argentina, sheep numbers rose leading to a small increase in wool production in 2012-13. This increase is likely to be reversed in 2013-14, because of strong competition for agricultural resources from more profitable food crops as a result of higher world prices.


Wool exports to decline but remain strong

Australian exports of wool for the first 10 months of 2012-13 were around 8 per cent higher than for the same period the previous year, and are expected to reach 440 000 tonnes for 2012-13 as wool is brought out of stocks. Exports of 405 000 tonnes of wool in the previous year amounted to 24 000 tonnes less than production, indicating an accumulation of stocks during 2011-12.

With lower stocks on hand and reduced production in 2013-14, exports are forecast to contract to around 420 000 tonnes for the year as a whole. Despite higher forecast export prices, the value of exports is expected to decline by 2 per cent to $2.8 billion in 2013-14.

In the 10 months to April 2013 Australian exports of wool to China—the major destination of Australian wool exports—were 11 per cent higher than in the corresponding period the previous year. However, this was associated with lower unit export values because Chinese wool processors have faced subdued demand in their export markets, especially in Europe.

Australian exports of raw wool to the European Union have fallen markedly over several decades, from 304 000 tonnes in 1990-91 to 34 000 tonnes in 2011-12, as processing has shifted to China. However, in the first 10 months of 2012-13 increased exports to the Czech Republic resulted in Australian exports of wool to the European Union being 2 per cent (490 tonnes) above the same period the previous season. Since the late 1980s the Czech Republic has largely maintained its imports of wool from Australia, most of which is processed and re-exported to Italy and other countries in Europe.

Production and exports of Australian wool

f ABARES forecast.

Wool outlook


Sheep numbers a million 75 74 74 0.0

Sheep shorn million 83 84 83 -1.2

Wool production (greasy) - shorn

kt 362 357 349 - 2.2

Wool production (greasy) - other b

kt 49 72 66 - 8.3



Wool production (greasy) - total

kt 411 429 415 - 3.3

Wool exports - volume (gr. equiv.)

kt 405 440 420 - 4.5

Wool exports - to China kt 306 330 315 - 4.5

Wool exports - value c $m 3 123 2 883 2 751 - 4.6

Market indicator (clean) - eastern

Ac/kg 1 203 1 035 1 080 4.3

Market indicator (clean) - western

Ac/kg 1 210 1 050 1 080 2.9

Auction price (greasy) Ac/kg 792 661 702 6.2a At 30 June. b Includes wool on sheepskins, fellmongered and slipe wool. c Balance of payments basis. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Wool Exchange


DairyDavid Barrett

In 2013-14 world dairy product prices are forecast to rise, driven by continuing firm demand in the developing countries of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa and limited growth in supplies from key exporting countries.

World dairy product prices are forecast to rise by around 3 per cent in 2013-14. World prices for whole milk powder, skim milk powder, butter and cheese are forecast to average US$3900 a tonne, US$3790 a tonne, US$3750 a tonne and US$4260 a tonne, respectively, in 2013-14.

World prices for milk powders rose strongly in March-April 2013 reflecting the effect of dry seasonal conditions on milk production in New Zealand and limited growth in milk production in the European Union and United States. As a result, world prices for milk powders in 2012-13 are estimated to average around 10 per cent to 13 per cent higher than in 2011-12. World prices for butter and cheese are estimated to average slightly lower in 2012-13.

World dairy prices

f ABARES forecast.

Global supplies to increase

Global milk production is forecast to increase slightly in 2013-14, as a result of forecast lower feed grain prices. Milk production in most of the main producing and exporting countries fell in 2012-13, as farmers reduced output in response to relatively low farmgate prices, high feed costs and adverse seasonal conditions.

European Union

EU milk production is forecast to rise by 1 per cent in the 2013-14 marketing year (April to March) but remain well within the EU milk quota. Milk output is expected to increase in France, Germany, Ireland and the Netherlands in response to forecast lower feed costs and assuming average seasonal conditions. In 2012-13 EU milk production fell by around 1 per cent to 138 million tonnes, around 5 per cent below the EU milk quota.

The number of dairy cows in the European Union is forecast to decline by around 1 per cent in 2013-14 as farmers in some EU member states, such as Romania and Bulgaria, reduce their herds. Additional costs to comply with EU milk quality standards by the end of 2013 are likely to lead to some farm closures in these two countries.


EU cheese exports are expected to increase in 2013-14 supported by firm export demand, particularly from the Russian Federation, and relatively subdued EU domestic consumption. EU cheese exports are forecast to rise by 5 per cent to 800 000 tonnes in 2013-14. Forecast lower EU production of butter and skim milk powder is expected to lead to reduced quantities available for export in 2013-14.

EU milk production and farmgate price

United States

While the US dairy herd is expected to contract through the remainder of 2013, US milk production is forecast to increase slightly in 2013 as a result of higher milk yields. Growth in US milk production is expected in the first half of 2014 as a result of forecast higher farmgate milk prices and lower feed grain costs.

With an expected strengthening in domestic demand as a result of an assumed improvement in US economic activity, the quantity of US dairy products available for export is expected to be constrained in the second half of 2013. However, a forecast increase in the production of dairy products, particularly cheese, is likely to lead to a rise in dairy product exports in the first half 2014.

US dairy

New Zealand

Assuming average seasonal conditions, milk production in New Zealand is forecast to increase by 1 to 2 per cent in 2013-14 following a slight fall in production in 2012-13 (June to May). Dry seasonal conditions on the North Island of New Zealand led to a sharp fall in milk production in the period February to May 2013, as farmers dried their cows off


earlier than usual and reduced feed intake. Rainfall received in the main dairying regions of the North Island during April and May 2013 is expected to allow pastures to recover. However, the improved seasonal conditions will have a limited effect on milk production for the 2012-13 marketing year (June to May) as a whole.

In the five years to June 2012 the dairy herd on the South Island of New Zealand increased by 50 per cent and accounted for 40 per cent of the national dairy herd in 2012. The number of dairy cattle on the North Island increased by 10 per cent over the same period. A further slight increase in the dairy herd is expected in 2013-14 on the South Island as further beef farms are converted to dairying.

New Zealand milk production, year-on-year change

Argentina

Milk production in Argentina is forecast to decline slightly in 2013. While milk production fell by 7 per cent in the first five months of 2013, it is forecast to increase in the remainder of 2013 in response to forecast higher farmgate milk prices and lower feed grain costs. However, this forecast rise in production in the second half of 2013 is not expected to offset the decline in production in the first half of 2013.

Argentina, a relatively large global exporter of dairy products, is expected to reduce its exports of whole milk powder and cheese in 2013 in response to lower production.

Demand in developing countries to drive global trade

Consumption of dairy products in the European Union is expected to remain subdued through the remainder of 2013, reflecting continuing weak economic activity in most member states. However, a modest rise in economic growth in the European Union in 2014 is expected to lead to a slight increase in domestic demand for dairy products, particularly cheese and some fresh milk products. Consumption of cheese in the United States is forecast to increase in 2013-14, in response to assumed stronger economic activity as consumers increase their discretionary spending on take-away and restaurant meals.

Import demand for dairy products in 2013-14 is expected to be supported by firm economic growth in the developing countries of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa.

Continuing growth in demand for milk powders in the Asian region is expected to support world prices for skim milk powder and whole milk powder in 2013-14. China, the dominant importer of milk powders in Asia, is expected to continue to increase imports of whole milk powder and skim milk powder in 2013. This reflects further growth in domestic demand, particularly for infant formula milk powders, and continuing consumer concerns about the safety of domestically produced products.


China's tariff on infant formula milk powder was reduced from 20 per cent, on an ad valorem basis, to 5 per cent on 1 January 2013. This is equivalent to the tariff applying to imports of milk powders from New Zealand under the New Zealand-China Free Trade Agreement for 2013. New Zealand is the largest exporter of whole milk powder to China, accounting for around 90 per cent of trade.

New Zealand exports of milk powder to China

South-East Asia's import demand for milk powders is forecast to remain firm in 2013, reflecting modest economic growth in most countries in the region. South-East Asia imports around 500 000 tonnes of skim milk powder annually, accounting for around one-third of global trade in skim milk powder. In 2011-12 Australia exported 77 000 tonnes of skim milk powder to South-East Asia. In recent years, Australian exporters have faced increased competition from other exporters such as the United States and the European Union in this market.

South-East Asia imports around 280 000 tonnes of whole milk powder annually, accounting for 15 per cent of world trade. Australia exported 34 000 tonnes of whole milk powder to South-East Asia in 2011-12.

With little growth in milk production forecast in the Middle East and North Africa, countries in these regions are expected to continue to meet growing domestic demand for dairy products through higher imports. Algeria is expected to remain a large regional importer of milk powders, with imports of whole milk powder forecast to increase by around 5 per cent to 185 000 tonnes in 2013.

Global trade in cheese is forecast to increase in 2013, reflecting firm import demand from the Russian Federation, Japan, the Republic of Korea and other smaller Asian markets, such as China and countries of South-East Asia. The Russian Federation's cheese imports are forecast to increase slightly in 2013 to around 355 000 tonnes, following a 2 per cent rise in 2012. Japan's imports of cheese in 2013 are expected to increase by 2 per cent to around 235 000 tonnes, following an 8 per cent rise the previous year. Cheese imports by China and South-East Asia have increased in recent years but the volumes are still small. For example, South-East Asia's imports of cheese doubled to reach 70 000 tonnes between 2006 and 2011, while cheese imports by China trebled to reach 28 000 tonnes over the same period.

The Australian dairy industry

The Australian farmgate price for milk is forecast to increase by 10.1 per cent in 2013-14 to average 43.5 cents a litre, reflecting the effect of higher world dairy product prices and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar. The farmgate price for milk is estimated to have fallen by around 6 per cent to 39.5 cents a litre in 2012-13.


Overall, Australian milk production is estimated to fall by 2.5 per cent in 2012-13. Dry seasonal conditions during the second half of 2012-13 across much of south-eastern Australia adversely affected milk production. Milk production in Victoria, which accounts for two-thirds of national production, is estimated to decline by 2 per cent in 2012-13. While production in the main irrigation region of northern Victoria (accounting for one-third of Victorian production) is estimated to increase by 5 per cent, production in eastern Victoria (accounting for 31 per cent of Victorian production) is estimated to fall by 8 per cent in 2012-13. In western Victoria (accounting for 35 per cent of Victorian production) production is estimated to decline by 3 per cent in 2012-13.

Production in dairying regions more reliant on the drinking milk market—Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia and central and northern New South Wales—is estimated to decline by around 2 per cent to 5 per cent in 2012-13.

Relatively high grain and fodder prices in the second half of 2012-13 also contributed to lower milk production in many of Australia's dairying regions, particularly in southern Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania. Expenditure on feed grains and fodder accounts for around 25 per cent to 30 per cent of total cash costs in the Australian dairy industry.

Assuming average seasonal conditions in Australia's major dairying regions, milk production is forecast to increase by 2.3 per cent to 9.45 billion litres in 2013-14. Most of the increase in production is expected to occur in those dairying regions that experienced dry seasonal conditions in the second half of 2012-13. Furthermore, continuing availability of irrigation water in northern Victoria and southern New South Wales is expected to lead to a further increase in milk production in these regions in 2013-14. The increased availability of irrigation water over the past two years in these regions has enabled dairy farmers to adjust their management strategies to allow increases in their herds.

Victorian milk production, year-on-year change

f ABARES forecast.

Australian exports

The total value of Australian dairy exports is forecast to increase by 10 per cent in 2013-14 to $2.4 billion, primarily reflecting the effect of forecast lower average dairy product prices on world markets and an assumed depreciation of the Australian dollar. The volume of cheese exports is forecast to increase by 3 per cent to 165 000 tonnes and account for around one-third of the value of Australian dairy exports.

Dairy outlook

Australia



Cow numbers a '000 1 700 1 690 1 695 0.3

Milk yields L/cow 5 577 5 467 5 575 2.0

ProductionCategory unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

Total milk ML 9 480 9 240 9 450 2.3

- market sales ML 2 389 2 435 2 475 1.6

- manufacturing ML 7 092 6 805 6 975 2.5

Butter b kt 120 118 120 1.7

Cheese kt 340 336 346 3.0

Whole milk powder kt 140 116 118 1.7

Skim milk powder kt 230 225 230 2.2

Farmgate milk price Ac/L 42.1 39.5 43.5 10.1

Value of exports A$m 2 292 2 208 2 428 10.0

World pricesProduct unit 2011-12 2012-13 f 2013-14 f % change

Butter US$/t 3 883 3 650 3 750 2.7

Cheese US$/t 4 258 4 150 4 260 2.7

Skim milk powder US$/t 3 233 3 670 3 790 3.3

Whole milk powder US$/t 3 431 3 780 3 900 3.2a At 30 June. b Includes the butter equivalent of butteroil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Dairy Australia


Statistical tablesGDP, exportsFIGURE 1 Contribution to GDP Australia, chain volume measures, reference year 2010-11


FIGURE 2 Markets for Australian merchandise exports in 2011-12 dollars


Import marketsFIGURE 3 Sources of Australian merchandise imports in 2011-12 dollars


Export marketsFIGURE 4 Principal markets for Australian agricultural, forestry and fisheries exports (nominal)


Prices

TABLE 1 Indexes of prices received by farmers Australia

Crops sector

GrainsProduct 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

s2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Winter crops - barley 145.3 108.3 135.8 131.7 170.8 145.3Winter crops - canola 142.2 114.2 141.1 133.1 144.9 139.1Winter crops - lupins 142.9 127.2 136.9 118.7 132.9 117.0Winter crops - oats 158.3 116.9 143.2 147.7 177.3 167.0Winter crops - wheat 142.1 110.4 130.1 114.6 173.2 154.3Summer crops - grain sorghum

121.3 115.9 125.8 111.6 143.3 127.6

Total grains a 137.5 108.7 126.2 115.9 155.5 140.1Cotton 96.7 98.4 103.6 110.8 92.6 99.3Sugar 98.3 137.8 128.0 147.1 104.5 94.6Hay 219.0 181.5 151.1 128.4 109.2 92.8Fruit 148.2 146.6 181.8 181.4 184.1 188.7Vegetables 152.9 150.4 167.3 161.4 161.8 165.9Total crops sector 120.1 108.8 122.3 118.4 133.4 127.6

Livestock sectorProduct 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12

s2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Livestock for slaughter - cattle

164.6 160.0 172.6 176.0 160.4 147.7

Livestock for slaughter - lambs b

204.3 218.7 255.4 229.1 188.4 197.0

Livestock for slaughter - sheep

216.8 343.3 438.0 356.4 200.8 228.3

Livestock for slaughter - live sheep for export

213.4 248.4 304.6 343.7 267.5 293.2

Livestock for slaughter - pigs

153.5 147.1 135.7 134.5 134.4 141.3

Livestock for slaughter - poultry

120.0 114.1 109.8 107.6 112.2 114.2

Livestock for slaughter - total

163.0 163.8 175.5 173.5 157.9 153.6

Livestock products - wool 109.2 116.0 158.4 176.8 145.0 153.2


Product 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 s

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Livestock products - milk 142.3 125.2 144.8 140.9 132.4 145.8Livestock products - eggs 108.5 105.5 104.2 104.1 105.0 106.0Livestock products - total 127.6 120.0 144.6 148.5 133.8 143.8Store and breeding stock 161.9 168.3 194.0 196.0 169.3 164.5Total livestock sector 147.6 145.7 162.8 163.2 147.6 148.5Total prices received 131.8 124.7 139.7 137.5 140.0 137.1a Total for the group includes commodities not separately listed. b Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18-22 kg. f ABARES forecast. s ABARES estimate.Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher's ideal index with a reference year of 1997-98 = 100. Indexes for most individual commodities are based on annual gross unit value of production. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Source: ABARES


TABLE 2 Indexes of prices paid by farmers and terms of trade Australia

Materials and servicesFarmers' terms of trade a

2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Index 88.5 88.6 96.4 93.6 96.7 94.3Seed, fodder and livestock - fodder and feedstuffs

168.0 145.8 121.0 115.6 127.1 119.2

Seed, fodder and livestock - seed, seedlings and plants

120.7 109.4 120.0 116.4 128.1 123.3

Seed, fodder and livestock - store and breeding stock

161.9 168.3 194.0 196.0 169.3 164.5

Seed, fodder and livestock - total

161.0 147.0 137.8 134.3 136.8 129.9

Chemicals 136.7 116.2 110.4 112.6 110.3 112.5Electricity 121.5 142.1 158.9 176.8 181.0 185.5Fertiliser 239.6 156.0 157.3 165.5 158.7 160.3Fuel and lubricants 211.0 191.7 211.3 228.2 211.0 213.1Total 164.0 146.4 146.1 148.9 148.6 148.0Labour 142.6 147.3 151.9 155.3 159.1 163.1Marketing 137.2 134.0 144.8 154.0 151.6 156.1Overheads - Insurance 155.6 167.0 173.7 185.8 190.3 195.0Overheads - Interest paid 116.8 111.2 122.3 114.9 98.2 94.5Overheads - Rates and taxes

141.6 144.9 149.4 152.8 156.5 160.4

Overheads - Other overheads

137.2 140.6 144.9 148.2 151.8 155.6

Overheads - Total 126.6 124.3 133.7 129.8 118.9 117.4Capital items 141.2 144.8 149.3 153.1 157.1 161.3Total prices paid 148.9 140.8 144.8 147.0 144.8 145.4Excluding capital items 149.9 140.4 144.4 146.4 143.6 143.8Excluding capital and overheads

156.7 144.9 147.1 151.0 151.0 151.8

Excluding seed, fodder and store and breeding stock

146.4 139.4 146.2 149.6 146.5 148.6

a Ratio of index of prices received by farmers and index of prices paid by farmers. f ABARES forecast. Notes: ABARE revised the method for calculating these indexes in October 1999. The indexes for commodity groups are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher's ideal index with a reference year of 1997-98 = 100. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics


Costs and returnsTABLE 3 Farm costs and returns Australia

CostsCategory unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Materials and services - chemicals

$m 1 792 1 496 1 435 1 477 1 426 1 459

Materials and services - fertiliser

$m 3 381 2 145 2 217 2 350 2 225 2 248

Materials and services - fuel and lubricants

$m 2 243 1 966 2 230 2 412 2 192 2 201

Materials and services - marketing

$m 3 733 3 814 3 841 4 010 3 677 3 969

Materials and services - repairs and maintenance

$m 3 080 3 004 3 702 3 920 4 001 4 190

Materials and services - seed and fodder

$m 5 263 4 543 4 202 4 140 4 557 4 304

Materials and services - other

$m 3 829 3 968 4 289 4 432 4 449 4 614

Materials and services - total

$m 23 320 20 935 21 916 22 741 22 526 22 985

Labour $m 3 827 3 784 4 120 4 234 4 288 4 378Overheads - interest paid $m 4 331 4 455 5 023 4 836 4 341 4 386Overheads - rent and third party insurance

$m 477 494 513 525 537 551

Total $m 8 634 8 733 9 655 9 595 9 166 9 314Total cash costs $m 31 955 29 668 31 571 32 336 31 692 32

300Depreciation a $m 4 676 4 792 4 944 5 068 5 200 5 339Total farm costs $m 36 631 34 460 36 515 37 404 36 892 37

639

ReturnsCategory unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Gross value of farm production

$m 41 929 39 665 46 914 47 972 47 253 47 715

Net returns and production - Net value of farm production b

$m 5 298 5 204 10 399 10 568 10 361 10 076


Category unit 2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Net returns and production - Real net value of farm production c

$m 5 853 5 619 10 889 10 816 10 361 9 832

Net returns and production - Net farm cash income d

$m 5 865 9 997 15 343 15 636 15 561 15 415

Net returns and production - Real net farm cash income c

$m 6 479 10 793 16 066 16 004 15 561 15 043

a Based on estimated movements in capital expenditure and prices of capital inputs. b Gross value of farm production less total farm costs. c In 2012-13 Australian dollars. d Gross farm cash income less total cash costs. f ABARES forecast. Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES (compiled from various market sources); Australian Bureau of Statistics


ExportsFIGURE 5 Contribution to exports by sector, balance of payments basis Australia

a ABARES rural balance of payments: adjusted to include farm, fisheries and forestry products classified as other merchandise by ABS.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


SectorsTABLE 4 Volume of production indexes Australia

FarmProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Grains and oilseeds index 116.1 116.6 139.9 158.6 131.1 141.3Total crops index 113.2 114.4 126.2 138.2 124.6 130.4Livestock slaughterings index 111.5 109.4 110.5 110.3 115.4 115.9Total livestock index 100.6 98.7 100.6 100.9 104.1 104.6Total farm sector index 107.9 107.5 114.2 120.1 114.9 118.2

Forestry aProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Hardwood index 120.8 107.8 110.8 103.7 95.7 106.6Softwood index 117.5 127.4 132.7 119.3 122.2 124.3Total forestry index 119.5 118.5 122.7 112.3 110.0 116.3a Volume of logs harvested excluding firewood. f ABARES forecast.Note: ABARE revised the method for calculating production indexes in October 1999. The indexes for the different groups of commodities are calculated on a chained weight basis using Fisher's ideal index with a reference year of 1997-98 = 100. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

TABLE 5 Industry gross value added a, b Australia

Industry unit 2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Agriculture, forestry and fishing - agriculture

$m 20 179 21 858 26 172 25 604 27 727 30 204

Agriculture, forestry and fishing - forestry and fishing

$m 4 094 4 136 4 436 4 429 4 429 4 319

Agriculture, forestry and fishing - total

$m 24 343 26 030 30 622 30 055 32 156 34 522

Mining $m 117 292 119 661

123 310

133 015

131 109

138 624

Manufacturing - food, beverage and alcohol

$m 23 328 23 294 22 556 24 205 24 085 22 886

Manufacturing - textile, clothing, footwear and leather

$m 10 018 10 486 9 386 7 331 6 855 6 707

Manufacturing - wood and paper products

$m 7 791 7 486 6 909 7 191 7 092 7 000


Industry unit 2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Manufacturing - printing, publishing and recorded media

$m 5 034 5 161 4 319 4 133 4 125 3 839

Manufacturing - petroleum, coal, chemical products

$m 18 728 19 190 17 259 17 903 17 913 18 012

Manufacturing - non-metallic mineral products

$m 4 990 5 212 5 172 5 073 4 971 4 621

Manufacturing - metal products

$m 20 628 22 965 22 660 21 296 22 203 22 354

Manufacturing - machinery and equipment

$m 19 712 20 352 19 579 20 731 20 566 21 207

Manufacturing - total $m 108 679 113 034

107 250

107 760

107 808

106 628

Building and construction $m 88 152 94 317 98 381 98 639 103 338

108 033

Electricity, gas and water supply

$m 30 959 31 036 32 335 33 200 33 811 33 357

Taxes less subsidies on products

$m 90 810 92 543 91 632 91 197 93 525 93 798

Statistical discrepancy $m 0 0 0 0 0 4 672Gross domestic product $m 1 272

7751 320 746

1 342 514

1 370 539

1 403 888

1 451 588

a Chain volume measures, reference year is 2010-11. b ANZSIC 2006. 0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, cat. no. 5206.0, Canberra


Employment, banksTABLE 6 Employment a, b Australia

Industry 2006-07'000

2007-08'000

2008-09'000

2009-10'000

2010-11'000

2011-12'000

Agriculture, forestry and fishing - agriculture

307 303 322 324 305 289

Agriculture, forestry and fishing - forestry and logging

8 8 8 7 6 8

Agriculture, forestry and fishing - commercial fishing c

10 14 9 11 12 11

Agriculture, forestry and fishing - support services

27 30 24 26 27 27

Agriculture, forestry and fishing - total

352 355 363 369 350 334

Mining 136 146 170 173 204 249Manufacturing - food, beverages and tobacco

215 230 227 228 228 227

Manufacturing - textiles, clothing, footwear and leather

51 50 48 46 44 39

Manufacturing - wood and paper product

77 70 68 64 56 55

Manufacturing - printing, publishing and recorded media

51 54 51 52 55 42

Manufacturing - petroleum, coal and chemical product

92 98 90 88 84 88

Manufacturing - non-metallic mineral product

36 42 40 37 37 38

Manufacturing - metal product

161 159 157 146 147 146

Manufacturing - other manufacturing

342 360 348 343 334 319

Manufacturing - total 1 025 1 063 1 029 1 004 986 954Other industries 8 876 9 144 9 338 9 459 9 748 9 875Total 10 388 10 708 10 899 11 003 11 288 11 413a Average employment over four quarters. b ANZSIC 2006. Caution should be used when utilising employment statistics at the ANZSIC subdivision and group levels due to estimates that may be subject to sampling variability and standard errors too high for most practical purposes. c Includes aquaculture, fishing, hunting and trapping. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, cat. no. 6291.0, Canberra


TABLE 7 All banks lending to business a Australia

Business 2010-11 Mar $b

2010-11 Jun $b

2010-11 Sep $b

2011-12 Dec $b

2011-12 Mar $b

2011-12 Jun $b

2012-13 Sep $b

2012-13 Dec $b

Agriculture, forestry and fishing and forestry

58.2 60.2 60.3 60.1 60.4 62.4 60.5 59.2

Mining 11.2 12.4 13.5 14.3 15.3 17.0 18.9 18.2Manufacturing 39.0 39.1 41.0 40.8 43.7 42.5 41.0 39.8Construction 30.1 30.1 29.3 28.8 29.2 30.3 29.1 27.8Wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage

93.3 92.8 95.4 97.3 99.5 101.7 100.6 103.2

Finance and insurance 94.1 89.4 93.4 96.5 99.2 100.8 102.7 102.9Other 316.9 314.1 315.4 320.6 321.6 329.3 342.6 342.6Total 642.9 638.0 648.4 658.4 668.9 683.9 695.5 693.8a Includes variable and fixed interest rate loans outstanding plus bank bills outstanding.Source: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Lending to Business - Selected Statistics, Bulletin Statistical Table D8


Farm debt, world pricesTABLE 8 Rural indebtedness to financial institutions a Australia

Category 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Rural debt - All banks a 47 188 53 743 57 384 58 097 60 184 62 324Rural debt - Other government agencies b

1 286 1 409 1 620 1 811 1 871 2 076

Rural debt - Pastoral and other finance companies

4 592 5 126 4 462 2 029 2 010 1 801

Rural debt - Large finance institutional debt c

53 066 60 278 63 467 61 937 64 065 66 201

Deposits - Farm management deposits

2 782 2 879 2 843 2 784 3 216 3 532

a Derived from all banks lending to agriculture, fishing and forestry. b Includes the government agency business of state banks and advances made under War Service Land Settlement. Before 1996 includes loans from the Queensland Industry Development Corporation. From 1996 these loans are included in bank lending. c Sum of the above. Sources: ABARES; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Reserve Bank of Australia, Estimated Rural Debt to Specified Lenders, Bulletin Statistical Table D9

TABLE 9 Annual world indicator prices of selected commodities

Product unit 2008-09

2009-10 2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

World Crops - Wheat a

US$/t 271 209 317 299 348 315

World Crops - Corn b

US$/t 190 160 254 281 312 270

World Crops - Rice c US$/t 609 532 518 588 558 538World Crops - Soybeans d

US$/t 422 395 493 506 596 520

World Crops - Cotton e

USc/lb 61.2 77.5 164.3 100.1 87.0 90.0

World Crops - Sugar g

USc/lb 14.9 20.3 26.5 22.7 18.0 15.0

Livestock products - Beef h

USc/kg 307 319 391 433 438 450

Livestock products - Wool i

Ac/kg 794 872 1 132 1 203 1 035 1 080

Livestock products - Butter i

US$/t 2 485 3 477 4 683 3 883 3 650 3 750

Livestock products - Cheese i

US$/t 3 281 3 748 4 221 4 258 4 150 4 260



2009-10 2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Livestock products - Skim milk powder j

US$/t 2 333 2 948 3 392 3 233 3 670 3 790

a US hard red winter wheat, fob Gulf. b US no. 2 yellow corn, delivered US Gulf. c USDA nominal quote for Thai white rice, 100 per cent, Grade B, fob, Bangkok (August-July basis). d US cif Rotterdam. e Cotlook 'A' index. f ABARES forecast. g Nearby futures price (October-September basis), Intercontinental Exchange, New York no. 11 contract. h US cif price. i Australian Wool Exchange eastern market indicator. j Average of traded prices (excluding subsidised sales).Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Meat & Livestock Australia; Australian Wool Exchange; Cotlook Ltd; Food and Agriculture Organization; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; ISTA Mielke and Co.; New York Board of Trade; Reuters Ltd; United States Department of Agriculture; Intercontinental Exchange


Gross unit valuesTABLE 10 Gross unit values of farm products a

Crops b

Grains and oilseedsProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Winter crops - barley $/t 231 172 216 210 272 231Winter crops - canola $/t 548 440 544 513 559 536Winter crops - field peas

$/t 345 241 266 359 413 281

Winter crops - lupins $/t 280 249 268 232 260 229Winter crops - oats $/t 216 160 196 202 242 228Winter crops - triticale $/t 257 220 184 176 236 225Winter crops - wheat $/t 281 218 257 227 342 305Summer crops - corn (maize)

$/t 283 268 259 251 293 277

Summer crops - rice $/t 566 457 240 270 297 263Summer crops - grain sorghum

$/t 205 196 213 189 243 216

Summer crops - soybeans c

$/t 551 551 501 472 451 447

Summer crops - sunflower seed c

$/t 696 696 567 551 551 540

Industrial cropsProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Cotton lint d c/kg 193 205 377 225 196 213Sugar cane (cut for crushing)

$/t 32 44 38 43 33 30

Wine grapes $/t 527 464 413 465 474 484

LivestockProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Beef cattle c/kg 320 311 336 337 304 288Lambs c/kg 415 444 519 465 383 400Pig c/kg 304 291 269 266 270 280Poultry c/kg 215 204 197 193 201 205


Livestock productsProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Wool c/kg 430 456 623 695 571 603Milk c/L 42.5 37.4 43.2 42.1 39.5 43.5a Average gross unit value across all grades in principal markets, unless otherwise indicated. Includes the cost of containers, commission and other expenses incurred in getting the commodities to their principal markets. These expenses are significant. b Average unit gross value relates to returns received from crops harvested in that year, regardless of when sales take place, unless otherwise indicated. c Price paid by crusher. d Australian base price for sales in the financial year indicated. f ABARES forecast.Note: Prices used in these calculations exclude GST. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


WorldTABLE 11 World production, consumption. stocks and trade for selected commodities a

Farm

GrainsProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Wheat - production Mt 685 679 652 696 655 690Wheat - consumption Mt 645 652 659 692 676 687Wheat - closing stocks Mt 172 199 193 197 177 180Wheat - exports b Mt 137 128 126 145 130 142Coarse grains - production

Mt 1 113 1 113 1 098 1 155 1 130 1 243

Coarse grains - consumption

Mt 1 080 1 103 1 130 1 155 1 144 1 215

Coarse grains - closing stocks

Mt 195 197 165 165 151 180

Coarse grains - exports b Mt 125 143 125 148 115 138Rice - production c Mt 448 441 449 466 470 472Rice - consumption c Mt 437 437 445 458 470 472Rice - closing stocks c Mt 92 96 99 107 107 107Rice - exports bd Mt 29 31 36 39 37 38

Oilseeds and vegetable oilsProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Oilseeds - production Mt 397 445 457 438 463 487Oilseeds - consumption Mt 401 421 444 455 459 478Oilseeds - closing stocks Mt 57 75 83 65 70 79Oilseeds - exports Mt 94 108 109 109 111 122Vegetable oils - production

Mt 134 141 148 152 157 165

Vegetable oils - consumption

Mt 131 139 145 150 155 162

Vegetable oils - closing stocks

Mt 13 14 14 16 16 19

Vegetable oils - exports Mt 56 58 60 62 66 68



2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Vegetable protein meals - production

Mt 224 240 252 258 262 275

Vegetable protein meals - consumption

Mt 223 234 246 257 262 274

Vegetable protein meals - closing stocks

Mt 6 8 11 11 10 11

Vegetable protein meals - exports

Mt 66 70 75 79 79 83


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Cotton - production Mt 23 22 25 27 26 26Cotton - consumption Mt 23 26 25 22 23 24Cotton - closing stocks Mt 13 10 11 16 18 20Cotton - exports Mt 7 8 8 10 10 9Sugar - production Mt 149 159 165 174 182 182Sugar - consumption Mt 162 163 164 168 172 176Sugar - closing stocks Mt 61 57 58 64 69 75Sugar - exports Mt 48 55 55 54 56 59


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Meat deg - production Mt 250 257 259 265 270 272Meat deg - consumption Mt 248 254 255 261 266 269Meat deg - closing stocks

Mt 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.5

Meat deg - exports b Mt 23.2 24.4 26.3 27.3 27.9 29.1Wool h - production kt 1 104 1 119 1 120 1 089 1 111 1 113Wool h - consumption di kt 1 105 1 125 1 130 1 110 1 105 1 127Wool h - closing stocks j kt 65 55 45 23 29 27Wool h - exports k kt 484 501 502 447 485 496Butter dg - production kt 8 039 8 181 8 571 8 888 9 084 9 140Butter dg - consumption kt 7 549 7 828 8 093 8 419 8 642 8 710Butter dg - closing stocks

kt 257 176 201 236 202 190

Butter dg - exports kt 813 736 727 758 788 800



2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Skim milk powder gl - production d

kt 3 452 3 415 3 671 3 909 3 915 4 100

Skim milk powder gl - consumption d

kt 2 920 3 000 3 185 3 334 3 406 3 610

Skim milk powder gl - closing stocks d

kt 556 496 449 433 379 360

Skim milk powder gl - exports

kt 1 140 1 344 1 529 1 649 1 652 1 700

a Some figures are not based on precise or complete analyses. b Includes intra-EU trade. c Milled equivalent. d On a calendar year basis, e.g. 1991-92 = 1992. e Beef and veal, mutton, lamb, goat, pig and poultry meat. f ABARES forecast. g Selected countries. h Clean equivalent. i Virgin wool at the spinning stage in 65 countries. j Held by marketing bodies and on-farm in five major exporting countries. k Five major exporting countries. l Non-fat dry milk.Sources: ABARES; Argentine Wool Federation; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Capewools South Africa; Commodities Research Unit; Commonwealth Secretariat; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Economic Commission for Europe; Fearnleys; Food and Agriculture Organization; International Grains Council; International Sugar Organization; ISTA Mielke and Co.; Meat & Livestock Australia; Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (Japan); New Zealand Dairy Board; New Zealand Wool Board; Poimena Analysis, Beef + Lamb New Zealand; Uruguayan Association of Wool Exporters; United States Department of Agriculture


Australian productionTABLE 12 Agricultural, fisheries and forestry commodity production Australia

Crops


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Winter crops - barley kt 7 997 7 865 7 995 8 221 6 761 7 417Winter crops - canola kt 1 844 1 907 2 359 3 427 3 898 3 230Winter crops - chickpeas kt 443 487 513 673 713 683Winter crops - field peas kt 238 356 395 342 320 363Winter crops - lupins kt 708 823 808 982 459 801Winter crops - oats kt 1 160 1 162 1 128 1 262 1 048 1 116Winter crops - triticale kt 363 545 355 285 429 380Winter crops - wheat kt 21 420 21 834 27 410 29 905 22 079 25 399Summer crops - cottonseed

kt 466 547 1 269 1 694 1 403 1 407

Summer crops - corn (maize)

kt 376 328 357 451 496 410

Summer crops - rice kt 61 197 723 919 1 160 997Summer crops - grain sorghum

kt 2 692 1 508 1 935 2 239 1 721 2 108

Summer crops - soybeans

kt 80 60 30 86 113 114

Summer crops - sunflower seed

kt 55 41 43 47 34 45

Summer crops - other oilseeds a

kt 34 40 33 35 40 39

Summer crops - Total grains and oilseeds

kt 37 935 37 699 45 352 50 567 40 673 44 509


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Cotton lint kt 329 387 898 1 198 992 995Sugar cane (cut for crushing)

kt 31 457 31 235 27 443 27 943 30 200 32 225

Sugar (tonnes actual) kt 4 634 4 472 3 610 3 683 4 300 4 541Wine grapes kt 1 684 1 533 1 598 1 581 1 670 1 685


HorticultureProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Fruit - apples kt 295 264 300 289 295 300Fruit - bananas kt 270 302 203 286 312 318Fruit - oranges kt 348 391 292 390 360 380Vegetables - carrots kt 264 267 225 319 319 322Vegetables - onions kt 284 260 331 347 310 300Vegetables - potatoes kt 1 179 1 278 1 128 1 288 1 290 1 292Vegetables - tomatoes kt 440 472 302 372 400 418


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Slaughterings - Cattle and calves

'000 8 583 8 364 8 097 7 873 8 395 8 700

Slaughterings - Sheep '000 10 501 7 333 5 341 5 175 7 897 6 319Slaughterings - Lambs '000 20 395 19 478 17 880 18 879 21 234 19 574Slaughterings - Pigs '000 4 476 4 561 4 643 4 733 4 658 4 575Live exports - Cattle exported live b

'000 845 871 728 579 480 470

Live exports - Sheep exported live c

'000 4 067 3 060 2 916 2 562 1 880 1 950

Meat producedProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Beef and veal d kt 2 125 2 109 2 133 2 115 2 230 2 300Lamb d kt 416 413 391 419 464 431Mutton d kt 220 162 123 120 179 146Pig meat kt 321 331 342 351 349 340Chicken meat d kt 832 834 1 015 1 030 1 045 1 070Total kt 3 914 3 849 4 005 4 034 4 267 4 287


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Wool e kt 420 423 429 411 429 415Milk g ML 9 388 9 023 9 101 9 480 9 240 9 450Butter h kt 148 128 122 120 118 120



2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Cheese kt 325 349 339 340 336 346Casein kt 10 8 5 5 4 4Skim milk powder i kt 212 190 222 230 225 230Whole milk powder kt 148 126 151 140 116 118Buttermilk powder kt 15 13 12 11 11 12

Forestry - logs harvested jProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Hardwood '000 m3

12 485 11 144 11 585 9 733 9 890 11 017

Softwood '000 m3

13 314 14 433 14 981 14 026 13 849 14 083

Total '000 m3

25 799 25 577 26 567 23 759 23 739 25 100

Fisheries kProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Tuna kt 13.7 11.0 9.1 10.9 11.4 11.6Salmonids l kt 30.0 32.0 36.8 44.0 47.0 49.3Other fish kt 115.7 120.7 110.8 115.7 116.9 114.5Prawns kt 24.2 27.3 26.9 23.9 23.7 23.9Rock lobster m kt 12.2 10.1 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.6Abalone kt 5.6 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.1Scallops kt 7.6 7.6 6.2 2.3 3.0 3.3Oysters kt 14.2 14.9 14.0 15.8 15.1 15.2Other molluscs kt 6.6 6.4 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6Other crustaceans kt 5.8 5.7 6.1 6.2 6.0 6.1a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Excludes animals exported for breeding purposes. c Includes animals for breeding, d In carcass weight and includes carcass equivalent of canned meats. e Greasy equivalent of shorn wool (includes crutching), dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. f ABARES forecast. g Includes the whole milk equivalent of farm cream intake. h Includes the butter equivalent of butter oil, butter concentrate, ghee and dry butterfat. i Includes mixed skim and buttermilk powder. j Excludes logs harvested for firewood. k Live weight. l Includes salmon and trout production. m Includes Queensland bugs. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Australian Dairy Corporation; Australian Fisheries Management Authority; Department of Fisheries, Western Australia; Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, Tasmania; Fisheries Queensland, Department of Employment, Economic Development and Innovation; Fisheries Victoria, Department of Primary Industries; Industry & Investment New South Wales; Northern Territory Department of Regional Development, Primary Industry, Fisheries and Resources; Primary Industries and Resources, South Australia; Raw Cotton Marketing Advisory Committee; South Australian Research and Development Institute; State and Territory Forest Services; various Australian forestry industries


Value of productionTABLE 13 Gross value of farm and fisheries production Australia

Crops

Grains and oilseedsProduct 2008-09

$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 s $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Winter crops - barley 1 850 1 356 1 729 1 723 1 838 1 716Winter crops - canola 1 011 840 1 283 1 759 2 178 1 732Winter crops - chickpeas 199 211 207 308 293 274Winter crops - field peas 82 86 105 123 132 102Winter crops - lupins 198 205 216 228 119 183Winter crops - oats 251 186 221 255 254 255Winter crops - triticale 93 120 65 50 101 85Winter crops - wheat 6 021 4 765 7 052 6 775 7 562 7 752Summer crops - maize 106 88 92 113 146 114Summer crops - rice 34 90 174 248 344 262Summer crops - grain sorghum

553 296 412 423 417 455

Summer crops - soybeans 44 33 15 41 51 51Summer crops - sunflower seed

38 29 24 26 18 24


28 34 27 27 31 30

Total grains and oilseeds 10 778 8 662 12 134 12 497 13 950 13 410

Industrial cropsProduct 2008-09

$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 s $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Cotton lint and cottonseed b

693 828 2 024 2 889 2 001 2 152

Sugar cane (cut for crushing)

1 021 1 382 1 036 1 214 1 007 963

Wine grapes 887 709 712 735 792 815Total industrial crops 2 601 2 919 3 771 4 838 3 800 3 930

Horticulture


Product 2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 s $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Table and dried grapes 286 273 308 308 307 296Fruit and nuts (excl. grapes)

2 871 2 950 3 013 3 050 3 273 3 450

Vegetables 3 012 3 023 3 338 3 339 3 600 3 710Other horticulture 1 556 1 649 1 606 1 272 1 414 1 549Total horticulture 7 725 7 895 8 265 7 968 8 594 9 005Other crops nei c 1 665 1 660 1 706 1 550 1 185 1 205Total crops 22 769 21 136 25 876 26 852 27 529 27 550

LivestockProduct 2008-09

$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 s $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Slaughterings - Cattle and calves d

6 806 6 567 7 164 7 134 6 776 6 613

Slaughterings - Sheep e 428 499 484 383 323 299Slaughterings - Lambs eg

1 725 1 832 2 029 1 950 1 775 1 723

Slaughterings - Pigs 976 965 919 934 944 951Slaughterings - Poultry 1 862 1 785 2 077 2 078 2 196 2 300Live exports - Cattle exported live h

646 701 660 651 574 565

Live exports - Sheep exported live h

340 298 348 345 197 224

Live exports - Total livestock i

12 834 12 722 13 795 13 615 12 946 12 850

Livestock products - Wool j

1 806 1 928 2 673 2 857 2 446 2 502

Livestock products - Milk k

3 988 3 371 3 932 3 986 3 650 4 111

Livestock products - Eggs

447 428 572 583 595 610

Livestock products - Honey and beeswax

86 80 66 79 88 92

Total livestock products 6 326 5 807 7 243 7 505 6 778 7 314Total farm 41 929 39 665 46 914 47 972 47 253 47 715

Forestry products l


Product 2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 s $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Hardwood 936 852 892 762 685 802Softwood 823 924 959 885 803 827Total 1 759 1 777 1 851 1 647 1 488 1 629

Fisheries products mProduct 2008-09

$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 s $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Tuna 187 125 150 175 181 176Salmonids n 326 369 410 513 534 564Other fish o 463 464 424 451 447 444Prawns 290 325 305 284 299 312Rock lobster q 415 381 390 416 396 402Abalone 189 173 178 170 173 189Scallops 26 23 22 8 9 11Oysters 93 101 97 107 107 109Pearls r 90 105 120 114 113 112Other molluscs t 49 32 31 38 35 36Other crustaceans 66 65 65 76 69 70Total fish 2 214 2 191 2 231 2 387 2 394 2 460a Linseed, safflower seed and peanuts. b Value delivered to gin. c Mainly fodder crops. d Includes dairy cattle slaughtered. e Excludes skin values. f ABARES forecast. g Lamb saleyard indicator weight 18-22 kg. h Includes animals exported for breeding purposes. i Total livestock slaughtering includes livestock disposals. j Shorn, dead and fellmongered wool and wool exported on skins. k Milk intake by factories and valued at the farm gate. l Excludes logs harvested for firewood. m Value to fishers of product landed in Australia. n Includes salmon and trout production. o Includes an estimated value of aquaculture. q Includes Queensland bugs. r Includes Northern Territory aquaculture production from 2009—10. s ABARES estimate. t Also includes fish and aquaculture values not elsewhere included. nei not elsewhere included. Note: The gross value of production is the value placed on recorded production at the wholesale prices realised in the marketplace. The point of measurement can vary between commodities. Generally the marketplace is the metropolitan market in each state and territory. However, where commodities are consumed locally or where they become raw material for a secondary industry, these points are presumed to be the marketplace. Prices used in these calculations exclude GST.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Areas, stockTABLE 14 Crop and forestry areas and livestock numbers Australia

Crop areas


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Winter crops - barley '000 ha 5 015 4 422 3 681 3 718 3 680 3 752Winter crops - canola '000 ha 1 693 1 695 2 078 2 461 2 970 2 454Winter crops - chickpeas

'000 ha 338 429 653 456 564 488

Winter crops - field peas

'000 ha 300 285 318 249 281 261

Winter crops - lupins '000 ha 577 692 756 689 450 417Winter crops - oats '000 ha 870 850 826 731 668 747Winter crops - triticale '000 ha 323 350 187 145 258 216Winter crops - wheat '000 ha 13 530 13 881 13 502 13 902 13 243 13 677Summer crops - maize '000 ha 65 59 62 70 81 67Summer crops - rice '000 ha 7 19 76 103 116 110Summer crops - grain sorghum

'000 ha 767 498 633 659 565 627


'000 ha 42 31 17 38 51 54


'000 ha 52 27 37 40 28 37


'000 ha 20 16 19 18 17 17

Total grains and oilseeds

'000 ha 24 095 23 787 23 946 24 295 23 858 23 799


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Cotton '000 ha 164 208 590 600 442 445Sugar cane b '000 ha 391 389 334 370 380 388Winegrapes e '000 ha 157 152 154 145 151 153

Livestock numbers c



2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Cattle - beef million 25.29 24.01 25.94 25.69 25.40 25.20Cattle - dairy million 2.61 2.54 2.57 2.73 2.72 2.72Cattle - milking herd d million 1.68 1.60 1.59 1.70 1.69 1.70Cattle - total million 27.91 26.55 28.51 28.42 28.12 27.92Sheep million 72.7 68.1 73.1 74.7 74.0 73.6Pigs million 2.30 2.29 2.29 2.14 2.12 2.08

Forestry plantation areaProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Broadleaved '000 ha 991 973 980 977 na naConiferous '000 ha 1 020 1 024 1 025 1 024 na naTotal plantation area g '000 ha 2 020 2 009 2 017 2 013 na naa Linseed and safflower seed. b Cut for crushing. c At 30 June. d Cows in milk and dry. e This figure is for grapes for wine only. Prior to 2008-09 this figure includes grapes used for winemaking and other purposes such as drying and table. f ABARES forecast. g Includes areas where plantation type is unknown. na not available. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


YieldsTABLE 15 Average farm yields Australia

Crops


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Winter crops - barley t/ha 1.59 1.78 2.17 2.21 1.84 1.98Winter crops - canola t/ha 1.09 1.13 1.14 1.39 1.31 1.32Winter crops - chickpeas

t/ha 1.31 1.14 0.79 1.48 1.27 1.40

Winter crops - field peas

t/ha 0.79 1.25 1.24 1.38 1.14 1.39

Winter crops - lupins t/ha 1.23 1.19 1.07 1.42 1.02 1.92Winter crops - oats t/ha 1.33 1.37 1.37 1.73 1.57 1.49Winter crops - triticale

t/ha 1.12 1.56 1.90 1.97 1.66 1.76

Winter crops - wheat t/ha 1.58 1.57 2.03 2.15 1.67 1.86Summer crops - maize

t/ha 5.82 5.56 5.74 6.47 6.13 6.12

Summer crops - rice t/ha 8.46 10.39 9.54 8.91 10.01 9.06Summer crops - grain sorghum

t/ha 3.51 3.03 3.06 3.40 3.05 3.36


t/ha 1.89 1.90 1.71 2.26 2.22 2.12


t/ha 1.07 1.54 1.14 1.17 1.19 1.21


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Cotton (lint) t/ha 2.01 1.86 1.52 2.00 2.24 2.24Sugar cane (for crushing)

t/ha 80 80 82 76 79 83

Winegrapes t/ha 10.7 10.1 10.4 10.9 11.1 11.0


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Wool a kg/sheep 4.29 4.26 4.34 4.19 4.26 4.20



2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Whole milk L/cow 5 602 5 653 5 727 5 577 5 467 5 575a Shorn (including lambs). f ABARES forecast.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Export volumesTABLE 16 Volume of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports Australia a

Farm


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Winter crops - barley b

kt 3 898 4 234 4 625 6 568 4 781 4 675

Winter crops - canola kt 973 1 238 1 471 2 323 3 413 2 352Winter crops - chickpeas

kt 467 459 409 653 888 447

Winter crops - lupins kt 157 377 289 316 320 195Winter crops - oats (unprepared)

kt 196 216 127 163 87 133

Winter crops - peas c kt 118 163 254 248 207 207Winter crops - wheat d

kt 13 410 13 725 18 431 23 026 21 461 19 450

Summer crops - cottonseed

kt 37 106 268 654 709 658

Summer crops - maize

kt 69 15 12 68 108 95

Summer crops - rice kt 106 54 174 538 638 588Summer crops - grain sorghum

kt 1 368 487 553 1 112 979 816

other oilseeds e kt 10 13 7 6 10 9Total grains and oilseeds

kt 20 809 21 088 26 620 35 674 33 601 29 625


092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Raw cotton g kt 260 395 505 994 1 123 988Sugar kt 3 268 3 506 2 735 2 572 2 996 3 241Wine ML 750 777 727 713 701 735

Meat and live animalsProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Beef and veal hi kt 968 899 937 948 1 015 1 070



2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Live cattle j '000 845 871 728 579 480 470Lamb h kt 156 157 157 174 202 177Live sheep k '000 4 067 3 060 2 916 2 562 1 880 1 950Mutton h kt 146 111 86 89 144 109Pig meat h kt 32 30 31 29 26 25Poultry meat h kt 37 28 31 38 31 38

WoolProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Greasy ls kt 314 308 335 301 320 305Semi-processed kt (gr eq) 62 49 44 37 35 33Skins kt (gr eq) 70 71 65 67 86 82Total ks kt (gr eq) 445 428 444 405 440 420

Dairy productsProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Butter m kt 70 74 56 49 54 50Cheese kt 146 168 163 161 160 165Casein kt 8 10 5 4 4 4Skim milk powder kt 162 126 155 141 150 153Whole milk powder kt 116 91 108 102 88 90

Forest productsProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Sawnwood '000 m3 355 387 348 252 245 282Wood-based panels '000 m3 345 256 253 214 174 203Paper and paperboard

kt 769 890 1 029 1 121 1 122 1 125

Woodchips kt 5 255 4 818 5 064 4 150 3 810 4 099

Fisheries productsProduct unit 2008-

092009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Tuna kt 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9 9.3 9.4Salmonids kt 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8 2.9 4.8



2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13 f

2013-14 f

Other fish kt 7.5 7.1 7.7 6.5 6.4 6.5Prawns n Frozen

kt 4.7 4.5 6.4 5.3 3.8 3.9

Rock lobster Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked

kt 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0

Abalone Live, fresh or chilled

kt 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.7

Frozen or cooked kt 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8Prepared or preserved

kt 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.9

Scallops o kt 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the volume of farm exports series back to 1988-89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h In shipped weight. Fresh, chilled or frozen. i Includes meat loaf. j Excludes breeding stock. k Includes breeding stock. l ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. m Includes ghee, dry butterfat, butter concentrate and butteroil, and dairy spreads, all expressed as butter. n Excludes volume of other prawn products. o Includes crumbed scallops.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry; Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade


Export valuesTABLE 17 Value of agricultural, fisheries and forestry exports(fob) Australia a

Farm


$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Winter crops - barley b 1 321 1 093 1 295 1 875 1 495 1 391Winter crops - canola 595 583 866 1 344 2 011 1 331Winter crops - chickpeas 275 255 213 384 556 415Winter crops - lupins 61 115 89 86 99 51Winter crops - oats 64 53 37 47 27 37Winter crops - peas c 62 60 85 93 87 92Winter crops - wheat d 5 028 3 692 5 516 6 378 6 891 6 617Summer crops - cottonseed 19 46 85 195 202 189Summer crops - corn (maize)

13 8 6 24 38 31

Summer crops - rice 143 59 154 458 513 436Summer crops - grain sorghum

405 116 146 299 264 231

other oilseeds e 27 24 14 10 14 14Total grains and oilseeds 8 015 6 102 8 505 11 193 12 197 10 835


$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Raw cotton g 500 755 1 367 2 736 2 352 2 174Sugar 1 338 1 887 1 436 1 556 1 397 1 290Wine 2 428 2 164 1 957 1 859 1 822 1 960Total industrial crops 4 266 4 805 4 760 6 151 5 571 5 424

HorticultureProduct 2008-09

$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Fruit 683 585 456 505 558 494Tree nuts 233 212 211 240 283 308


Product 2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Vegetables 487 542 607 712 664 612Nursery 29 23 20 15 13 18Other horticulture h 280 274 293 258 243 290Total horticulture 1 712 1 637 1 588 1 729 1 762 1 722Other crops and crop products

2 368 2 346 2 461 2 517 2 653 2 755

Total crops 16 361 14 890 17 313 21 589 22 183 20 736

Meat and live animalsProduct 2008-09

$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Beef and veal 4 857 3 953 4 328 4 467 4 840 5 080Live cattle i 538 550 499 412 329 306Lamb 925 916 1 026 1 060 1 065 977Live sheep j 340 298 348 345 197 224Mutton 482 433 404 362 477 403Pig meat 124 109 106 100 81 80Poultry meat 43 36 38 45 42 50Total meat and live animals 7 309 6 294 6 749 6 791 7 031 7 119

WoolProduct 2008-09

$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Greasy k 1 729 1 773 2 371 2 448 2 298 2 192Semi-processed 281 238 251 242 205 195Skins 312 291 426 433 380 364Total k 2 322 2 303 3 048 3 123 2 883 2 751

Dairy productsProduct 2008-09

$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Butter 232 211 252 201 180 178Cheese 796 715 731 751 721 802Casein 107 88 53 48 42 44


Product 2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Skim milk powder 553 352 504 474 503 556Whole milk powder 475 296 402 378 317 351Other dairy products 520 427 404 439 444 497Total 2 683 2 089 2 345 2 292 2 208 2 428Other livestock and livestock products

2 400 2 217 2 354 2 529 2 697 2 776

Total livestock exports 14 714 12 903 14 496 14 735 14 819 15 076Total farm exports 31 075 27 793 31 809 36 324 37 002 35 811

Forest productsProduct 2008-09

$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Sawnwood 125 125 115 88 87 99Wood-based panels 101 97 98 83 56 74Paper and paperboard 606 649 747 717 696 712Woodchips 997 856 884 729 670 719Other l 514 543 629 611 596 634Total forest products 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229 2 106 2 238

Fisheries productsProduct 2008-09

$m2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Tuna 177 118 131 163 168 167Salmonids 47 30 54 42 27 37Other fish 109 110 101 85 83 85Prawns m Frozen

81 60 77 65 51 54

Rock lobster Fresh, chilled, frozen or cooked

462 399 368 387 382 388

Abalone Live, fresh or chilled

88 100 88 81 87 90

Frozen or cooked 50 53 59 57 58 58Prepared or preserved 70 63 65 59 50 64Scallops n 33 30 15 15 12 14Pearls 366 244 241 207 204 203


Product 2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

2012-13 f $m

2013-14 f $m

Other fisheries products 44 39 48 65 59 45Total fisheries products 1 529 1 246 1 248 1 227 1 181 1 203Total rural exports o 34 946 31 309 35 531 39 780 40 289 39 252a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988-89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Field peas and cowpeas. d Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. e Includes soybeans, linseed, sunflower seed, safflower seed and peanuts. Excludes meals and oils. f ABARES forecast. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes breeding stock. k On a balance of payments basis. ABS recorded trade data adjusted for changes in stock levels held overseas. l Includes miscellaneous products such as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, oils and other wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. m Other prawn products included in other fisheries products. n Includes crumbed scallops. o Derived from farm, forest and fisheries products.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Canberra


Forest exportsTABLE 18 Volume 0f forest products exports Australia

QuantityProduct unit 2006-

072007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Roundwood '000 m3 1 171 1 045 986 1 377 1 638 1 806Sawnwood a - Softwood roughsawn

'000 m3 317 258 283 322 265 198

Sawnwood a - Softwood dressed

'000 m3 49 23 18 13 13 13

Sawnwood a - Hardwood roughsawn

'000 m3 36 40 40 37 40 27

Sawnwood a - Hardwood dressed

'000 m3 13 16 13 16 29 14

Sawnwood a - Total '000 m3 416 338 355 387 348 252Railway sleepers '000 m3 11 11 9 9 8 8Wood-based panels - Veneers

'000 m3 4 35 86 90 119 106

Wood-based panels - Plywood

'000 m3 13 15 53 24 7 18

Wood-based panels - Particleboard

'000 m3 18 6 17 9 5 4

Wood-based panels - Hardboard b

'000 m3 4 0 2 1 2 2

Wood-based panels - Medium density fibreboard

'000 m3 260 204 181 130 115 79

Wood-based panels - Softboard and other fibreboards

'000 m3 10 14 8 2 5 5

Wood-based panels - Total '000 m3 309 274 345 256 253 214Paper and paperboard - Newsprint

kt 0 5 2 6 19 30

Paper and paperboard - Printing and writing

kt 132 119 112 146 84 132

Paper and paperboard - Household and sanitary

kt 32 37 38 31 39 26

Paper and paperboard - Packaging and industrial

kt 640 630 617 708 887 933

Paper and paperboard - Total

kt 805 790 769 890 1 029 1 121

Recovered paper kt 1 060 1 286 1 216 1 444 1 323 1 403



2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Pulp kt 16 21 22 18 31 1Woodchips cd kt 5 952 6 166 5 255 4 818 5 064 4 150a Excludes railway sleepers. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Includes particles. d Bone dry tonnes.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia

TABLE 19 Value of forest products exports (fob) Australia

ValueProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Roundwood 117 105 101 138 198 175Sawnwood - Softwood roughsawn

81 63 70 76 67 55

Sawnwood - Softwood dressed 18 11 9 7 5 3Sawnwood - Hardwood roughsawn

35 38 38 33 35 24

Sawnwood - Hardwood dressed

11 8 8 9 8 6

Sawnwood - Total 145 120 125 125 115 88Railway sleepers 5 3 4 2 3 3Miscellaneous forest products a

63 56 51 59 65 59

Wood-based panels - Veneers 6 19 36 44 52 51Wood-based panels - Plywood 8 9 4 3 2 2Wood-based panels - Particleboard

6 4 7 3 2 1

Wood-based panels - Hardboard b

3 0 1 1 2 2

Wood-based panels - Medium density fibreboard c

97 76 52 45 39 26


6 2 1 1 1 1

Wood-based panels - Total 126 109 101 97 98 83Paper and paperboard - Newsprint

0 3 2 6 13 15


149 133 128 143 88 120


102 106 111 97 94 64


Product 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m


400 395 364 404 552 518

Paper and paperboard - Total 650 635 606 649 747 717Paper manufactures 112 103 106 102 112 134Recovered paper 175 252 235 228 240 240Pulp 12 15 18 13 11 1Woodchips 950 1 072 997 856 884 729Total 2 355 2 471 2 343 2 270 2 474 2 229a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Uncoated hardboard confidential from January 2007. c Some categories of medium density fibreboard are confidential. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Forest importsTABLE 20 Volume of forest products imports Australia

QuantityProduct unit 2006-

072007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Roundwood '000 m3 5.0 0.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 1.1Sawnwood a - Softwood roughsawn

'000 m3 289.2 340.2 255.6 292.6 290.1 239.4

Sawnwood a - Softwood dressed

'000 m3 193.9 321.2 278.8 367.3 468.2 469.7

Sawnwood a - Hardwood roughsawn

'000 m3 67.4 61.5 52.2 44.1 43.8 46.6

Sawnwood a - Hardwood dressed

'000 m3 60.1 60.9 41.7 44.1 44.2 35.5

Sawnwood a - Total '000 m3 610.7 783.9 628.4 748.1 846.3 791.1Wood-based panels - Veneers

'000 m3 29.0 31.5 21.4 15.4 17.4 14.7

Wood-based panels - Plywood

'000 m3 244.0 236.6 199.1 227.7 277.6 292.8

Wood-based panels - Particleboard

'000 m3 77.5 99.6 68.7 64.2 71.6 67.8

Wood-based panels - Hardboard

'000 m3 38.4 32.1 23.5 33.0 48.5 69.1


'000 m3 26.5 68.8 88.3 69.9 58.0 95.2


'000 m3 14.2 14.3 10.6 6.2 6.5 7.1

Wood-based panels - Total '000 m3 429.5 482.8 411.7 416.4 479.6 546.6Paper and paperboard - Newsprint

kt 262.5 227.6 197.6 190.6 221.5 121.1


kt 1 173.5

1 235.3 1 122.1 1 167.4 1 237.0 1 173.9


kt 101.8 81.1 82.0 101.1 113.8 117.7


kt 258.4 303.1 254.0 285.3 313.8 333.1

Paper and paperboard - Total

kt 1 796.3

1 847.1 1 655.7 1 744.4 1 886.1 1 745.8

Recovered paper kt 9.6 10.2 3.0 3.4 2.0 2.6Pulp kt 359.0 388.7 344.7 265.0 233.2 256.1



2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

Woodchips kt 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2a Excludes railway sleepers.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia

TABLE 21 Value of forest products imports Australia

ValueProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Roundwood 1 1 1 0 1 1Sawnwood - Softwood roughsawn

148 186 134 140 135 105

Sawnwood - Softwood dressed 143 191 168 200 248 248Sawnwood - Hardwood roughsawn

67 59 51 41 41 45

Sawnwood - Hardwood dressed 60 56 53 48 49 50Sawnwood - Total 418 492 405 429 473 448Miscellaneous forest products a 567 583 651 603 688 741Wood-based panels - Veneers 32 33 28 22 21 21Wood-based panels - Plywood 168 153 145 138 170 183Wood-based panels - Particleboard

26 34 27 20 21 26

Wood-based panels - Hardboard

30 28 26 30 40 54


14 33 41 37 34 36


7 3 4 3 3 3

Wood-based panels - Total 276 284 271 250 289 323Paper and paperboard - Newsprint

224 185 173 158 176 91


1 453 1 456 1 468 1 355 1 347 1 217


177 137 154 164 185 187


416 470 481 499 515 543

Paper and paperboard - Total 2 270 2 248 2 276 2 175 2 223 2 037Paper manufactures b 470 513 590 563 557 486Recovered paper 2 2 1 1 0 1


Product 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Pulp 265 285 263 178 180 164Woodchips 1 2 2 1 2 2Total 4 271 4 412 4 459 4 200 4 412 4 202a Includes such items as wooden doors, mouldings, packing cases, parquetry flooring, builders carpentry, cork, gums, resins, eucalyptus oils and other miscellaneous wood articles. Excludes wooden furniture. b Includes other paper articles that have had some further processing. 0 used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics; Engineered Wood Products Association of Australasia


Fisheries exportsTABLE 22 Volume of fisheries products exports Australia

Edible aProduct 2006-07 kt 2007-08

kt2008-09 kt

2009-10 kt

2010-11 kt

2011-12 kt

Fish - Live na na na na na naFish - Tuna 11.6 12.6 11.5 9.5 7.8 8.9Fish - Salmonids 1.9 3.0 6.6 4.0 6.4 5.8Fish - Other fish 9.4 6.7 7.5 7.1 7.7 6.5Total fish b 22.9 22.3 25.6 20.7 21.9 21.1Crustaceans and molluscs - Rocklobster

10.3 9.5 9.6 7.7 7.0 6.9

Crustaceans and molluscs - Prawns

6.4 4.9 4.8 4.7 6.4 5.4

Crustaceans and molluscs - Crabs

1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8

Crustaceans and molluscs - Abalone

3.9 3.6 3.3 3.6 3.4 3.1

Crustaceans and molluscs - Scallops

1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.4

Crustaceans and molluscs - Other

1.7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 2.9

Total 25.1 21.6 21.2 19.2 19.6 19.6Total edible b 48.0 43.9 46.8 39.9 41.5 39.5a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. na Not available. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

TABLE 23Valueof fisheries products exports(fob) Australia

Edible aProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Fish - Live 40.8 42.8 46.5 40.4 33.4 32.0Fish - Tuna 162.2 206.2 176.8 118.5 131.4 162.7Fish - Salmonids 14.3 21.9 47.2 29.6 54.4 41.8Fish - Other fish 62.7 53.0 62.6 69.2 67.6 52.9Total fish b 280.0 323.9 333.1 257.8 286.8 289.4Crustaceans and molluscs - Rocklobster

463.4 400.7 461.6 399.7 369.3 386.7


Product 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Crustaceans and molluscs - Prawns

93.6 68.6 82.2 61.5 77.1 66.7


17.5 15.7 16.4 13.8 13.4 11.0

Crustaceans and molluscs - Abalone

246.0 217.2 208.2 216.4 212.0 197.3


35.4 27.8 33.3 29.5 15.4 15.3


21.7 10.6 9.7 8.5 16.3 34.4

Total crustaceans and molluscs

877.5 740.6 811.4 729.3 703.6 711.3

Total edible b 1 157.5 1 064.5 1 144.5 987.1 990.3 1 000.7

Non-edibleProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Marine fats and oils 11.6 5.5 5.0 4.8 5.4 7.3Fish meal 4.7 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.6 0.4Pearls c 313.7 264.0 366.4 243.9 241.3 206.6Ornamental fish 1.5 1.9 3.4 2.7 2.3 2.3Other non-edible 4.5 3.9 7.8 5.5 7.3 9.4Total non-edible 336.1 276.3 384.0 259.0 257.9 226.1Total fisheries products b 1 493.6 1 340.8 1 528.5 1 246.1 1 248.2 1 226.8a Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Includes items temporarily exported and re-imported. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Fisheries importsTABLE 24 Volume of fisheries products imports Australia

Edible aProduct 2006-07 kt 2007-08

kt2008-09 kt

2009-10 kt

2010-11 kt

2011-12 kt

Fish - Live fish na na na na na naFish - Tuna 34.5 38.8 38.0 39.9 45.6 40.8Fish - Salmonids 13.4 10.2 10.9 9.8 9.9 9.8Fish - Hake 7.9 6.8 5.7 5.4 6.7 5.3Fish - Herrings 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9Fish - Shark 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5Fish - Other fish 76.4 79.6 77.4 83.6 83.4 86.8Fish - Total fish b 133.4 136.8 133.4 140.2 147.1 144.1Crustaceans and molluscs - Prawns

33.9 29.8 26.7 34.5 32.6 37.5

Crustaceans and molluscs - Lobster

0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9


1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5


2.7 2.5 2.2 2.8 2.6 3.0

Crustaceans and molluscs - Squid

15.3 15.6 16.8 16.0 15.2 17.0


11.3 11.6 12.7 12.0 12.1 10.0

Crustaceans and molluscs - Total

65.0 61.4 59.9 67.2 64.7 69.8

Total edible abc 198.4 198.3 193.3 207.4 211.8 214.3a Includes prepared and preserved. b Excludes live tonnage. c Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. na not available. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

TABLE 25 Value of fisheries products imports Australia

Edible aProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Fish - Live fish 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Fish - Tuna 141.7 174.1 223.3 169.3 200.8 205.5Fish - Salmonids 102.4 78.8 99.9 85.7 84.1 87.5


Product 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Fish - Hake 37.7 32.0 31.0 26.1 27.2 20.9Fish - Herrings 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2Fish - Shark 4.3 4.1 4.5 5.6 4.4 4.0Fish - Other fish 407.5 417.8 458.0 458.2 446.8 466.4Fish - Total fish b 698.1 711.3 821.1 749.4 767.7 788.6Crustaceans and molluscs - Prawns

308.0 250.2 270.7 298.7 291.0 350.9

Crustaceans and molluscs - Lobster

13.3 14.2 9.8 11.8 15.0 16.0


8.8 10.3 11.3 12.4 13.3 15.5


29.8 28.1 29.9 33.5 34.5 43.6

Crustaceans and molluscs - Squid

55.9 45.6 54.3 62.0 74.3 90.4


67.5 68.8 82.1 75.8 75.5 68.7

Crustaceans and molluscs - Total

483.3 417.2 458.1 494.2 503.5 585.1

Total edible a 1 181.6 1 128.7 1 279.4 1 243.9 1 271.3 1 373.8

Non-edibleProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Pearls c 181.6 166.4 320.6 170.8 166.9 138.2Fish meal 40.1 41.2 41.9 51.9 46.7 34.2Ornamental fish 5.3 5.4 5.8 4.6 3.9 3.7Marine fats and oils 24.0 27.1 33.9 26.8 31.0 39.5Other marine products 32.0 25.6 24.9 14.9 9.9 17.2Total non-edible 283.0 265.7 427.1 269.0 258.4 232.8Total fisheries products ad

1 467.4 1 397.9 1 709.8 1 514.7 1 531.0 1 608.0

a Includes prepared and preserved. b Includes live value. c Mostly reimports. d Includes other fisheries products not classified to fish or crustaceans and molluscs. 0.0 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

Agricultural exportsTABLE 26 Agricultural exports to Japan (fob) Australia a

Farm



$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Winter crops - barley b 218 234 335 284 260 316Winter crops - canola 86 70 65 109 41 47Winter crops - lupins 7 4 9 9 9 9Winter crops - wheat c 276 355 291 299 408 395Summer crops - cottonseed 25 8 16 31 24 31Summer crops - grain sorghum

1 25 319 70 105 219

Summer crops - other grains d

3 2 3 3 3 10

Summer crops - other oilseeds e

1 6 4 1 1 1

Total grains and oilseeds 618 703 1 043 805 852 1 028


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Raw cotton g 59 47 39 31 48 63Sugar 238 129 192 190 194 211Wine 49 49 54 43 44 45Total industrial crops 346 225 285 264 286 319


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Fruit 82 81 70 61 70 59Tree nuts 19 13 15 17 16 20Vegetables 52 42 49 34 47 43Nursery 7 5 6 4 4 3Other horticulture h 3 4 4 5 7 6Total horticulture 162 146 144 121 143 131Other crops and crop products

42 44 61 47 54 47

Total crops 1 168 1 118 1 533 1 237 1 335 1 524

Meat and live animals


Product 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Beef and veal 2 078 1 794 2 066 1 682 1 667 1 549Live cattle i 18 18 14 15 16 20Lamb 63 53 67 52 60 63Mutton 31 28 39 24 26 24Other meat and live animals j

10 5 6 2 2 1

Total meat and live animals 2 200 1 899 2 192 1 776 1 771 1 657

WoolProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Greasy 6 0 2 4 9 12Semi-processed 33 17 12 12 23 26Skins 3 5 3 1 1 2Total 42 22 17 17 33 39


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Butter 8 17 11 2 6 9Cheese 338 427 399 358 356 423Casein 32 38 44 26 22 21Skim milk powder 11 10 22 3 2 2Whole milk powder 1 0 0 0 0 1Other dairy products 63 53 46 44 37 44Total dairy product exports 453 545 521 433 423 500Other livestock exports 481 394 438 323 339 303Total livestock exports 3 176 2 859 3 168 2 549 2 566 2 499Total agricultural exports

4 344 3 977 4 701 3 786 3 901 4 023

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988-89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Includes grains not separately listed. e Includes oilseeds not separately listed. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes other meat and live animals not listed separately.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Export Statistics, Canberra

TABLE 27 Agricultural exports to the United States (fob) Australia a

Farm



$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Winter crops - barley b 1 0 0 0 0 0Winter crops - chickpeas 0 1 2 1 2 2Summer crops - cottonseed 0 0 0 10 0 20Summer crops - other grains c

1 1 1 1 0 0

Summer crops - other oilseeds d

0 0 0 0 0 0

Total grains and oilseeds 3 2 3 12 3 22


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Raw cotton e 0 0 0 0 0 0Sugar 78 43 66 58 85 120Wine 956 745 741 608 478 452Total industrial crops 1 034 788 808 666 562 572


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Fruit 73 65 60 67 33 33Tree nuts 15 15 20 22 12 15Vegetables 7 7 10 8 7 8Nursery 5 4 4 3 2 2Other horticulture g 18 19 18 14 16 15Total horticulture 118 110 111 114 70 72Other crops and crop products

63 93 174 167 168 142

Total crops 1 218 993 1 095 958 804 808


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Beef and veal 1 221 925 1 225 817 704 896Lamb 308 313 354 303 335 305Mutton 47 45 35 32 38 21


Product 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Other meat and live animals h

0 0 0 0 0 0

Total meat and live animals 1 576 1 283 1 615 1 152 1 077 1 222

WoolProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Greasy 16 9 7 9 11 8Semi-processed 1 2 1 3 3 3Skins 1 0 0 0 0 0Total 19 11 8 12 14 11


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m


3 043 2 507 2 970 2 312 2 070 2 191

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988-89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes grains not separately listed. d Includes oilseeds not separately listed. e Excludes cotton waste and linters. g Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. h Includes meat and live animals not listed separately.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Export Statistics, Canberra

TABLE 28 Agricultural exports to China (fob) Australia a

Farm


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Winter crops - barley b 220 295 235 280 311 454Winter crops - canola 1 0 21 0 0 0


Product 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Winter crops - wheat c 45 1 71 189 144 457Summer crops - grain sorghum

0 0 0 14 14 4

Summer crops - other grains d

0 0 1 1 0 1

Summer crops - other oilseeds e

1 1 2 1 45 116

Total grains and oilseeds 267 296 330 485 514 1 032


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Raw cotton g 281 164 165 274 551 1 812Sugar 29 15 3 4 31 21Wine 49 62 94 140 181 209Total industrial crops 358 241 262 418 763 2 042


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Fruit 4 8 6 6 8 10Tree nuts 13 12 14 8 6 11Vegetables 5 2 1 6 4 6Nursery 0 0 0 0 1 1Other horticulture h 2 2 3 4 3 4Total horticulture 24 24 23 25 23 32Other crops and crop products

16 25 7 7 8 22

Total crops 665 586 621 934 1 308 3 128


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Beef and veal 8 10 20 17 28 40Live cattle i 8 0 0 5 4 0Lamb 21 37 34 34 63 73Mutton 4 5 9 13 12 14


Product 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Other meat and live animals j

0 0 0 0 0 0

Total meat and live animals 42 52 64 69 107 127

WoolProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Greasy 1689 1455 1328 1460 1864 1925Semi-processed 49 28 55 62 21 24Skins 293 265 271 257 351 369Total 2 031 1 748 1 654 1 779 2 235 2 319


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m


3 110 3 006 3 023 3 525 4 469 6 485

a ABARES has revised the calculation method for the value of farm exports series back to 1988-89. b Includes the grain equivalent of malt. c Includes the grain equivalent of wheat flour. d Includes grains not separately listed. e Includes oilseeds not separately listed. g Excludes cotton waste and linters. h Other horticulture includes mainly coffee, tea, spices, essential oils and other miscellaneous horticultural products. i Excludes breeding stock. j Includes meat and other live animals not listed separately.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics, International Trade, Australia, cat. no. 5465.0, Canberra; Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Export Statistics, Canberra

TABLE 29 Value of Australian forest products trade, by selected countries

ExportsCountry 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

China 270 360 390 394 544 534Hong Kong 72 54 51 68 42 39


Country 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Japan 888 965 860 774 745 579Korea, Rep. of 116 91 103 48 40 40Malaysia 48 57 78 82 106 112New Zealand 365 375 324 319 314 306Taiwan 83 88 77 88 79 68

ImportsCountry 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

China 509 547 611 624 680 797Finland 248 272 274 171 143 120Germany 190 178 167 178 183 147Indonesia 404 336 374 351 332 342Malaysia 199 209 215 217 228 233New Zealand 741 790 744 703 715 634United States 276 289 320 313 285 297Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics


Food exportsTABLE 30 Value of Australian fisheries products trade, by selected countries Australia

Exports

Edible (excluding live)Country 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

China 59 26 30 43 143 58Hong Kong 447 426 525 491 394 448Japan 306 328 302 215 226 254Malaysia 5 8 13 9 13 8New Zealand 10 12 9 17 10 10Singapore 41 40 44 37 41 42Taiwan 50 45 54 33 30 18Thailand 8 8 7 9 16 18United States 115 72 64 49 35 22

Non-edibleCountry 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Hong Kong 156 128 201 138 145 97Japan 69 53 64 50 43 44New Zealand 9 2 2 3 3 3United States 34 24 22 15 8 22

Imports a

Edible (excluding live)Country 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Canada 21 15 13 13 15 14China 155 132 152 173 186 231Denmark 26 19 24 24 19 25Indonesia 28 23 31 39 28 36Japan 9 14 16 16 14 18Malaysia 39 55 65 63 71 73New Zealand 192 198 207 212 210 197


Country 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Norway 20 21 20 27 25 27South Africa 33 24 23 30 28 31Taiwan 27 32 33 37 39 39Thailand 279 295 368 322 340 362United States 39 29 49 37 40 45Vietnam 155 142 167 153 162 174a Country details for non-edible imports are not available. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics

TABLE 31 Food exports by level of transformation Australia

Minimally transformedProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Live animals except fish 752 761 924 924 924 787Fish or shellfish 631 646 747 650 667 721


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Vegetables 147 137 152 150 166 152Fruit and nuts 451 433 563 472 368 450Total 598 571 716 622 534 602Grains a 3 329 4 221 6 383 4 632 6 765 8 793Oilseeds 167 346 644 657 973 1 555Food nec 54 41 49 43 50 52

Substantially and elaborately transformed

MeatProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Meat processing 7 048 6 506 7 411 6 313 6 887 7 068Poultry processing 26 32 43 36 38 45Bacon, ham and smallgoods 43 33 47 54 57 87Total 7 117 6 571 7 501 6 403 6 983 7 201Seafood 548 440 417 357 350 281

Dairy


Product 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Milk and cream processing 1 089 1 258 1 354 880 1 107 1 065Ice cream 42 37 31 31 33 27Cheese 824 968 796 715 731 751Other dairy products 482 499 497 440 451 422Total 2 438 2 763 2 679 2 066 2 322 2 264Fruit and vegetables 574 568 575 523 571 625Oil and fat 169 239 303 289 293 317

Flour mill and cereal foodProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Flour mill products 269 315 419 365 344 313Cereal food and baking mix 372 287 390 445 614 880Total 642 602 809 811 958 1 193

Bakery productsProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Bread, cake and pastry 27 26 25 26 22 22Biscuit 111 118 127 135 134 129Total 137 144 152 161 155 150

Other foodProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Sugar a 1 551 1 035 1 374 1 924 1 479 1 600Confectionery 215 237 269 260 252 240Total 2 907 2 366 3 065 3 607 3 091 3 469

Beverage and maltProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Soft drink, cordial and syrup 39 38 45 55 61 63Beer and malt 273 335 447 406 318 372Wine 2 894 2 700 2 493 2 188 2 009 1 910Spirit 89 86 105 101 97 103Total 3 294 3 159 3 091 2 750 2 485 2 447


Total food and beverageProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Minimally transformed 5 532 6 585 9 462 7 528 9 913 12 510Substantially transformed 17 530 16 528 18 243 16 606 16 863 17 613Elaborately transformed 297 324 350 362 346 335Total 23 359 23 438 28 056 24 495 27 122 30 458a Includes ABARES estimates where ABS confidentiality restrictions apply. nec not elsewhere classified. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Food importsTABLE 32 Food imports by level of transformation Australia

Minimally transformedProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Live animals except fish 1 1 2 1 2 1Fish or shellfish 57 65 67 72 73 67


$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Vegetables 45 53 49 58 76 64Fruit and nuts 189 216 225 262 245 290Total 234 269 274 320 322 354Grains 2 2 2 3 4 6Oilseeds 78 49 49 36 36 41Food nec 175 188 224 228 304 348

Substantially and elaborately transformed

MeatProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Meat processing 446 381 525 497 478 493Poultry processing 0 0 0 0 0 0Bacon, ham and smallgoods 42 50 68 82 90 112Total 489 431 593 579 567 606Seafood 1 151 1 095 1 249 1 201 1 231 1 348

DairyProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Milk and cream processing 40 67 69 66 72 75Ice cream 40 37 39 40 44 45Cheese 302 377 365 360 398 408Other dairy products 98 176 157 150 180 227Total 480 656 631 615 694 755Fruit and vegetables 1 229 1 386 1 556 1 361 1 478 1 742


Product 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Oil and fat 481 489 578 485 517 516

Flour mill and cereal foodProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Flour mill products 34 66 83 66 48 53Cereal food and baking mix 325 462 576 577 523 504Total 358 527 659 643 572 557

Bakery productsProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Bread, cake and pastry 163 175 197 191 222 242Biscuit 147 162 179 178 191 206Total 310 337 376 369 413 448

Other foodProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Sugar 20 22 44 71 125 95Confectionery 371 438 518 525 547 576Food net 1 136 1 221 1 430 1 396 1 460 1 583Total 1 527 1 681 1 992 1 992 2 131 2 255

Beverage and maltProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Soft drink, cordial and syrup 656 697 791 798 818 898Beer and malt 126 161 226 212 196 219Wine 334 454 502 477 490 554Spirit 465 491 530 538 544 571Total 1 582 1 802 2 050 2 026 2 048 2 243

Total food and beverageProduct 2006-07

$m2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Minimally transformed 546 573 618 660 741 818Substantially transformed 7 269 8 008 9 254 8 836 9 205 9 990Elaborately transformed 338 396 429 434 445 481


Product 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Total 8 154 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 2880 is used to denote nil or less than $0.5 million. nec not elsewhere classified. Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Food tradeTABLE 33 Total food exports, by selected destination Australia

Country 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Canada 423 402 380 335 332 328China 664 917 1 178 1 426 1 540 2 174Egypt 151 174 315 266 402 387Germany 123 162 153 109 263 262Hong Kong 827 857 1 082 997 886 1 018Indonesia 1 566 1 702 2 652 2 129 2 288 2 272Japan 4 752 4 553 5 517 4 278 4 207 4 448Korea, Rep. of 1 850 1 655 1 873 1 925 1 994 2 338Malaysia 801 799 1 231 853 849 875New Zealand 1 203 1 303 1 406 1 323 1 281 1 366Philippines 240 308 563 318 502 686Saudi Arabia 568 1 144 1 020 566 499 911Singapore 650 712 792 722 739 800Taiwan 595 574 671 613 627 634Thailand 305 393 626 424 539 744United Arab Emirates 284 445 567 528 581 605United Kingdom 1 209 1 136 1 005 784 685 614United States 3 058 2 552 3 054 2 379 2 165 2 285Other 4 091 3 651 3 970 4 522 6 745 7 713Total 23 359 23 438 28 056 24 495 27 122 30 458Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics

TABLE 34 Total food imports, by selected source country Australia

Country 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Brazil 120 129 150 110 148 176Canada 252 220 268 234 219 210China a 536 617 754 708 750 841France 223 278 281 281 297 332India 141 156 175 164 167 222


Country 2006-07 $m

2007-08 $m

2008-09 $m

2009-10 $m

2010-11 $m

2011-12 $m

Indonesia 135 158 202 189 191 190Ireland 510 536 559 585 252 89Italy 422 436 494 463 430 469Malaysia 273 354 459 392 455 456Netherlands 166 182 220 197 200 275New Zealand 1 414 1 671 1 684 1 801 1 895 2 047Papua New Guinea 38 36 45 44 57 59Singapore 123 155 205 194 539 792Spain 192 173 153 186 171 158Thailand 473 547 702 689 759 741United Kingdom 292 295 314 331 324 347United States 714 803 994 893 959 1 139Vietnam 278 250 297 280 303 344Other 1 853 1 981 2 346 2 191 2 275 2 401Total 8 154 8 978 10 301 9 930 10 391 11 288a Excludes imports from Hong Kong.Sources: ABARES; Australian Bureau of Statistics


Report extractsABARES reports released since Agricultural commodities (vol. 3 no. 1 March quarter 2013)Following is a selection of ABARES reports released since publication of Agricultural commodities in March 2013. A brief description of the nature of each report is provided. While not comprehensive, the selection provides an overview of the range of interests ABARES covers.

All reports can be downloaded from daff.gov.au/abares/publications.

For more information contact [email protected].

Research reportsAn economic survey of irrigation farms in the Murray-Darling *v Basin: Industry overview and region profiles, 2010-11

Research report 13.5

Publication date: 14 June 2013 Authors: Dale Ashton, Haydn Valle and Mark Oliver

The report An economic survey of irrigation farms in the Murray-Darling Basin: Industry overview and region profiles, 2010-11 presents information on irrigated agricultural production and the financial situation of irrigators in the Murray-Darling Basin in 2010-11 and 2011-12. The report provides economic and physical profiles of irrigators by region and industry, based on a survey of 900 irrigation farms across 10 regions in the Murray-Darling Basin.

Preliminary long-term forecasts of wood product demand in Australia

Research report 13.6

Publication date: 30 May 2013Authors: Mihir Gupta, Kristen Corrie, Beau Hug and Kevin Burns

ABARES has estimated domestic wood product consumption and trade over the period from 2011-12 to 2049-50 using a set of assumptions defining a business-as-usual outlook scenario. This scenario describes the outlook for the forestry sector, assuming maintenance of existing trends and government policies. The focus in this report is to document the econometric models that provide the best possible estimate for the relationship between demand and factors driving demand for sawnwood, wood-based panels and paper and paperboard as aggregated commodity groups. Two possible scenarios for woodchip exports are also discussed.

Technical reportsAustralian plantation statistics 2013 update

Technical report 13.3



http://daff.gov.au/abares/publications

Publication date: 30 May 2013 Author: Mijo Gavran

The National Plantation Inventory has been collecting data and reporting on plantations established primarily for timber production in Australia since 1993. Australian plantations statistics update is published every year between the five-yearly comprehensive spatial reports. Annual updates assist strategic forest industry planning and decision-making by presenting information on total plantation area, new planting and ownership.

Other reportsAustralian crop report

Publication date: 12 June 2013

This quarterly report forms a consistent and regular assessment of crop prospects for major field crops, forecasts of area, yield and production and a summary of seasonal conditions on a state-by-state basis.

Australian forest and wood products statistics: September and December quarters 2012

Publication date: 6 June 2013

Paper presented at the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES) 2013 Conference.

This issue of the Australian forest and wood products statistics (AFWPS) includes updated data for plantation areas, log harvest volumes, production of wood-based panels and paper and paperboard for 2011-12 and Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) trade data for the September and December quarters of 2012. This overview also presents socio-economic indicators for the forestry sector drawn from the 2011 ABS Census of Population and Housing. These build on and update the indicators presented in the AFWPS March and June quarters 2012, which reported data from the 2006 Census.

Technical reviews for the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy: Implementation issues

Publication date: 4 June 2013Authors: Peter Ward, Nic Marton, Andy Moore, Heather Patterson, Andrew Penney, Phil Sahlqvist, Maggie Skirtun, Mary Stephan, Simon Vieira and James Woodhams

This report was developed for the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation. This technical overview was prepared for consideration by stakeholders and Australian Government agencies as part of the review of the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy and Guidelines. It summarises key conclusions and advice on potential improvements to technical aspects of the Commonwealth Harvest Strategy Policy (DAFF 2007) from the reports prepared on specific technical issues, providing a an interface between the technical detail in those reports and discussion of potential improvements to the harvest strategy policy and implementation guidelines.


Australian fisheries surveys report 2012: Financial and economic performance of the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery, the Commonwealth Trawl Sector and the Gillnet, Hook and Trap Sector

Publication date: 31 May 2013Authors: Daniel George and Robert New

The Australian fisheries surveys report 2012 provides detailed information about the financial and economic performance of key Commonwealth fisheries. The results of this report are used by policymakers, managers, researchers and industry. The report presents results of the 2012 survey, which focused on the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery and the Commonwealth Trawl and Gillnet Hook and Trap sectors of the Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Fishery. The results comprise survey-based estimates of financial and economic performance for the 2009-10 and 2010-11 financial years, as well as non-survey based estimates of economic performance for the 2011-12 financial year. Quota prices for key species in each fishery as well as demographic data are also presented.

Technical reviews for the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy: Economic issues

Publication date: 28 May 2013 Authors: Simon Vieira and Sean Pascoe

This report was developed for the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation. It reviews the operationalisation of the harvest strategy policy's maximum economic yield objective across Commonwealth fisheries. The report provides an outline of key economic definitions and concepts as well as the general experiences and challenges of operationalising MEY in Commonwealth fisheries. It then draws on the literature to list the potential options that are available to improve the way in which Commonwealth fishery management meets the intent of the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy.

Technical reviews for the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy: Technical overview

Publication date: 28 May 2013Authors: Andrew Penney, Peter Ward and Simon Vieira

This report was developed for the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation. This technical overview was prepared for consideration by stakeholders and Australian Government agencies as part of the review of the Commonwealth Fisheries Harvest Strategy Policy and Guidelines. It summarises key conclusions and advice on potential improvements to technical aspects of the Commonwealth Harvest Strategy Policy (DAFF 2007) from the reports prepared on specific technical issues, providing an interface between the technical detail in those reports and discussion of potential improvements to the harvest strategy policy and implementation guidelines.

Looking beyond the farm gate: Closer vertical coordination along value chains as a means of improving farm performance

Science and Economic Insights 13.1

Publication date: 20 April 2013Authors: Emily M. Gray, Max Oss-Emer and Alistair Davidson


This report considers how closer vertical coordination in agricultural value chains can affect farm performance, and the implications for industry and government. There is a trend toward more closely specified marketing arrangements between farmers and other businesses in agricultural value chains, such as through the use of supply contracts and alliances. While the main incentive stems from the opportunity to increase profit, consumer demand for greater quality and choice, new technologies, and consumer protection regulation are also important as they are driving increased product differentiation and information needs. This is because closer vertical coordination can reduce the costs of guaranteeing product quality by improving information flows along value chains.

Ground cover monitoring for Australia: Sampling strategy and selection of ground cover control sites

Publication date: 8 March 2013

High frequency, spatially explicit ground cover information is required to improve the modelling and monitoring of wind and water erosion, our understanding of climate variability and changing management on agriculture and, in particular, pastures in the rangelands. The sampling strategy report supports the development of a national network of reference sites required to validate remotely sensed ground cover products.


ABARES contactsPosition/Dept Name Email address Phone numberExecutive Director Paul Morris [email protected] (02) 6272 4636Chief Economist Michael Harris [email protected] (02) 6272 2222Chief Scientist Kim Ritman [email protected] (02) 6272 4671

Agricultural Commodities and TradePosition/Dept Name Email address Phone numberAssistant Secretary and Chief Commodity Analyst

Jammie Penm [email protected] (02) 6272 2030

Agricultural Trade Caroline Gunning-Trant

[email protected]

(02) 6272 2123

Agricultural Commodities

Peter Collins [email protected] (02) 6272 2017

Commodities Data Dianne Stefanac [email protected] (02) 6272 2311Research Engagement and Outlook

Anna Carr [email protected] (02) 6272 2287

Spatial Information Standards and Implementation

Evert Bleys [email protected] (02) 6272 5627

Biosecurity and Farm AnalysisPosition/Dept Name Email address Phone numberAssistant Secretary Lisa Elliston [email protected] (02) 6272 2219Biosecurity Ben Buetre [email protected] (02) 6272 2404Farm Analysis Milly Lubulwa [email protected] (02) 6272 2069Survey Collection John Gray [email protected] (02) 6272 5381Invasive Species Bertie Hennecke [email protected] (02) 6272 4263

Climate Change and VariabilityPosition/Dept Name Email address Phone numberAssistant Secretary Helal Ahammad [email protected] (02) 6272 2366Climate Change Economics Climate Impact Sciences

Edwina Heyhoe Matthew Miller

[email protected] [email protected]

(02) 6272 2109(02) 6272 3527

Mitigation and Adaptation Sciences

Kate Harle [email protected] (02) 6272 3347

Fisheries and Quantitative SciencesPosition/Dept Name Email address Phone numberAssistant Secretary Ilona Stobutzki [email protected] (02) 6272 4277






















Position/Dept Name Email address Phone numberDomestic Fisheries and Marine Environment

Andrew Penney [email protected] (02) 6272 3726

International Fisheries James Larcombe [email protected] (02) 6272 3388Fisheries Economics Robert Curtotti [email protected] (02) 6272 2014Quantitative Sciences Belinda Barnes [email protected] (02) 6272 5374

Land and ForestsPosition/Dept Name Email address Phone numberAssistant Secretary David

[email protected]

(02) 6272 5954

Forest Sciences Steve Read [email protected] (02) 6272 5582Forest and Land Economics

Beau Hug [email protected] (02) 6272 3929

Land Use and Management

Phil Pritchard [email protected] (02) 6272 4193

Productivity, Water and Social SciencesPosition/Dept Name Email address Phone numberAssistant Secretary Peter Gooday [email protected] (02) 6272 2138Productivity and Innovation

Alistair Davidson [email protected]

(02) 6272 2487

Water Research Tim Goesch [email protected] (02) 6272 2009Social Sciences Saan Ecker [email protected] (02) 6272 5930Library Resources Libby Williams [email protected] (02) 6272 4715Production, Online and Design

Merryn West [email protected] (02) 6272 2290

Media — [email protected] (02) 6272 3232Publication inquiries — [email protected] (02) 6272 2010

Agricultural commodities June quarter 2013

was designed and produced by the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and the Agricultural Commodities team of ABARES.

Editors: Jenny Cook and Emma Rossiter

The 'Biosphere' Graphic Element

The biosphere is a key part of the department's visual identity. Individual biospheres are used to visually describe the diverse nature of the work we do as a department, in Australia and internationally.

Also in this series




















Agricultural commodities, March 2012

Agricultural commodities, June 2012

Agricultural commodities, September 2012

Agricultural commodities, December 2012

Agricultural commodities, March 2013

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES)

Postal address GPO Box 1563 Canberra ACT 2601

Switchboard +61 2 6272 2010

Facsimile +61 2 6272 2001

Email i [email protected]

Web daff.gov.au/abares

daff.gov.au/abares





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