Aggregated Convection and the Aggregated Convection and the Regulation of Tropical ClimateRegulation of Tropical Climate

Kerry EmanuelProgram in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Climate

MIT

Numerical simulations of RC equilibrium show that, Numerical simulations of RC equilibrium show that, under some conditions, moist convection self-under some conditions, moist convection self-

aggregates aggregates

Day 10 Day 50

From Bretherton et al. (2005)

Vertically integrated water vapor at 4 (a), 6 (b), 8 (c), and 10 Vertically integrated water vapor at 4 (a), 6 (b), 8 (c), and 10 (d) days (Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007)(d) days (Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007)

Effect of Self-Effect of Self-Aggregation on Aggregation on

HumidityHumidity

(Bretherton et al. , 2005)

Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007Nolan et al., QJRMS, 2007

Self-Aggregation is Temperature-Dependent Self-Aggregation is Temperature-Dependent (Nolan et al., 2007; Emanuel and Khairoutdinov, in preparation, 2009)

Empirical Necessary Conditions for Self-Aggregation Empirical Necessary Conditions for Self-Aggregation (after Held et al., 1993; Bretherton et al., 2005; Nolan et al.; 2007)

• Small vertical shear of horizontal wind• Interaction of radiation with clouds and/or

water vapor• Feedback of convective downdraft surface

winds on surface fluxes• Sufficiently high surface temperature

HypothesisHypothesis

• At high temperature, convection self-aggregates

• →Horizontally averaged humidity drops dramatically

• →Reduced greenhouse effect cools system• →Convection disaggregates• →Humidity increases, system warms• →System wants to be near phase transition to

aggregated state

Recipe for Self-Organized CriticalityRecipe for Self-Organized Criticality(First proposed by David Neelin, but by different mechanism)(First proposed by David Neelin, but by different mechanism)

• System should reside near critical threshold for self-aggregation

• Convective cluster size should follow power law distribution

Toy ModelToy Model

PropertiesProperties• PBL quasi-equilibrium enforced• Bulk aerodynamic surface fluxes with convective

gustiness• Albedo and emissivity simple weighted average of clear

and cloudy regions• Water vapor-dependent clear sky emissivity• Horizontally uniform temperature but variable moist

static energy (i.e. water vapor) at mid-level• Vertical motion calculated to enforce zero horizontal

temperature gradient• PBL moist static energy adjusted to yield zero domain-

averaged vertical motion• Slow horizontal diffusion of moisture at mid-level

ResultsResultsSelf-Aggregation Occurs for:Self-Aggregation Occurs for:

• Small or negative gross moist stability• Sufficiently large feedback between

convective gustiness and surface enthalpy fluxes

• Sufficiently high surface temperature

Example:Example:

Summary of Toy Model ResultsSummary of Toy Model Results• Self-aggregation driven by convective

gustiness at high temperature• No self-aggregation at low temperature• Aggregated state is much drier at mid levels• System tends towards self-organized criticality

(SOC)• Climate sensitivity of SOC state much lower

(0.04 K/Wm-2) than sensitivity of uniform convection (0.2 K/Wm-2)

Overall SummaryOverall Summary

• Spontaneous aggregation of convection can occur in low-shear environments at sufficiently high temperature

• Aggregation results in profound drying of the troposphere (associated with increase in precipitation efficiency)

• Drying results in decrease of surface temperature• Above points suggest that low-shear tropical

environments are “attracted” to the critical point between disaggregated and aggregated states

• Climate sensitivity of this self-organized critical state likely to be quite different from normal radiative-convective states

• Global models probably do not represent this process

• Idea currently being tested with cloud-resolving model (w/Marat Khairoutdinov)