Tropical cyclones in global climate models: the role of resolution
Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Some New Findings Kerry Emanuel Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and...
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Transcript of Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Some New Findings Kerry Emanuel Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and...
Tropical Cyclones and Climate:Tropical Cyclones and Climate:Some New FindingsSome New Findings
Kerry EmanuelKerry EmanuelProgram in Atmospheres, Oceans, and Program in Atmospheres, Oceans, and
ClimateClimateMITMIT
Some IssuesSome Issues
• What processes control rates of genesis of What processes control rates of genesis of tropical cyclones?tropical cyclones?
• What processes control the actual and What processes control the actual and potential intensity of TCs? potential intensity of TCs?
• Do TCs have important feedbacks on climate?Do TCs have important feedbacks on climate?
Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Storm Max Power DissipationStorm Max Power Dissipation
(Smoothed with a 1-3-4-3-1 filter)
Scal
ed T
empe
ratu
re
Pow
er D
issi
patio
n In
dex
(PD
I)
Years included: 1870-2006
Data Sources: NOAA/TPC, UKMO/HADSST1
Theoretical Upper Bound on Hurricane Theoretical Upper Bound on Hurricane Maximum Wind Speed:Maximum Wind Speed:
2 *| | 0s b
C T Tk s oV T s spot C TD o
Air-sea enthalpy disequilibrium
Surface temperature
Outflow temperature
Ratio of exchange coefficients of enthalpy and momentum
s0* = saturation entropy of sea surface
sb = actual entropy of subcloud layer
Condition of convective neutrality:
sb = s* of free troposphere
Also, s* of free troposphere is approximately spatially uniform (WTG approximation)
*2 *| | 0s
C T Tk s oV T s spot C TD o
approximately constant
What matters, apparently, is the SST (sWhat matters, apparently, is the SST (s00*) relative *) relative to the tropospheric temperature (s*)to the tropospheric temperature (s*)
Can SST Vary Independently of s*?Can SST Vary Independently of s*?
* *0
* *0
* *0
| | ( )
| |
| |
k a s rad ocean
rad ocean
k a s
rad ocean
k a s
C T s s F h F
F h Fs s
C T
and
F h Fs s
C T
10
10
10
V
V
V
Ocean Surface Energy Balance:
Answer: On time scales long enough for the ocean Answer: On time scales long enough for the ocean mixed layer to be in thermal equilibrium (>~ 1 year)mixed layer to be in thermal equilibrium (>~ 1 year)
• Potential intensity is determined by local radiative balance, local convergence of ocean heat flux, local surface wind speed, and local outflow temperature only
• Remote influences limited to remote effects on surface wind surface radiation ocean heat flux and, in marginal zones, on outflow temperature
• SST cannot vary independently of free atmospheric temperature
Interpretation of Recent Trends in Interpretation of Recent Trends in Potential IntensityPotential Intensity
Based on NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis
Importance of Trends in Outflow TemperatureImportance of Trends in Outflow Temperature
Outflow Temperature, September, 1995
0o 60oE 120oE 180oW 120oW 60oW
60oS
30oS
0o
30oN
60oN
200 210 220 230 240 250 260 270 280
Very High Resolution Modeling Very High Resolution Modeling of the Response of Tropical of the Response of Tropical Cyclones to Climate ChangeCyclones to Climate Change
The Problem:The Problem:
• Global models are far too coarse to simulate high Global models are far too coarse to simulate high intensity tropical cyclonesintensity tropical cyclones
• Embedding regional models within global models Embedding regional models within global models introduces problems stemming from incompatibility introduces problems stemming from incompatibility of models, and even regional models are usually too of models, and even regional models are usually too coarsecoarse
Histograms of Tropical Cyclone Intensity as Simulated by a Global Model with 50 km grid point spacing. (Courtesy Isaac Held, GFDL)
Category 3
Probability Density of TC Damage, U.S. East Coast
Damage Multiplied by Probability Density of TC Damage, U.S. East Coast
To the extent that they simulate tropical cyclones at all, global models simulate storms that are largely irrelevant to society and to the climate system itself, given that ocean stirring effects are heavily weighted towards the most intense storms
What are the true resolution What are the true resolution requirements for simulating requirements for simulating
tropical cyclones?tropical cyclones?
Numerical convergence in an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic model (Rotunno and Emanuel, 1987)
Another Major Problem with Using Another Major Problem with Using Global and/or Regional Models to Global and/or Regional Models to
Simulate Tropical Cyclones:Simulate Tropical Cyclones:
Model TCs are not coupled Model TCs are not coupled to the oceanto the ocean
Comparing Fixed to Interactive SST:Comparing Fixed to Interactive SST:
Our Solution:Our Solution:
Drive a simple but very high resolution, coupled ocean-atmosphere TC model using boundary conditions supplied by the global model or reanalysis data set
CHIPS: A Time-dependent, axisymmetric CHIPS: A Time-dependent, axisymmetric model phrased in R spacemodel phrased in R space
• Hydrostatic and gradient balance above PBL• Moist adiabatic lapse rates on M surfaces
above PBL• Boundary layer quasi-equilibrium• Deformation-based radial diffusion
21
2M rV fr
21
2fR M
Detailed view of Entropy and Angular MomentumDetailed view of Entropy and Angular Momentum
Ocean Component: ((Schade, L.R., 1997: A physical interpreatation of SST-feedback. Preprints of the 22nd Conf. on Hurr. Trop. Meteor., Amer. Meteor.
Soc., Boston, pgs. 439-440.)• Mixing by bulk-Richardson number closure• Mixed-layer current driven by hurricane model surface
wind
Ocean columns integrated only Along predicted storm track.Predicted storm center SST anomaly used for input to ALLatmospheric points.
Comparison with same atmospheric model coupled Comparison with same atmospheric model coupled to 3-D ocean model; idealized runs:to 3-D ocean model; idealized runs:
Full model (black), string model (red)Full model (black), string model (red)
Hindcast of KatrinaHindcast of Katrina
Comparison to Skill of Other ModelsComparison to Skill of Other Models
Application to Assessing Tropical Application to Assessing Tropical Cyclone Risk in a Changing ClimateCyclone Risk in a Changing Climate
Approach:Approach:• Step 1: Seed each ocean basin with a very large
number of weak, randomly located cyclones
• Step 2: Cyclones are assumed to move with the large scale atmospheric flow in which they are embedded, plus a correction for beta drift
• Step 3: Run the CHIPS model for each cyclone, and note how many achieve at least tropical storm strength
• Step 4: Using the small fraction of surviving events, determine storm statistics.
Details: Emanuel et al., BAMS, 2008
200 Synthetic U.S. Landfalling tracks (color coded 200 Synthetic U.S. Landfalling tracks (color coded by Saffir-Simpson Scale)by Saffir-Simpson Scale)
6-hour zonal displacements in region bounded by 106-hour zonal displacements in region bounded by 10oo and 30 and 30oo N latitude, and 80N latitude, and 80oo and 30 and 30oo W longitude, using only post-1970 W longitude, using only post-1970
hurricane datahurricane data
CalibrationCalibration
• Absolute genesis frequency calibrated to Absolute genesis frequency calibrated to North Atlantic during the period 1980-2005North Atlantic during the period 1980-2005
Genesis ratesGenesis rates
AtlanticAtlantic
Eastern North Pacific
Western North Pacific
North Indian Ocean
Southern Hemisphere
Calibrated to AtlanticCalibrated to Atlantic
Seasonal CyclesSeasonal Cycles
Cumulative Distribution of Storm Lifetime Peak Wind Cumulative Distribution of Storm Lifetime Peak Wind Speed, with Sample of 2946Speed, with Sample of 2946 Synthetic TracksSynthetic Tracks
3000 Tracks within 100 km of Miami3000 Tracks within 100 km of Miami
95% confidence bounds
Return PeriodsReturn Periods
Sample Storm Wind SwathSample Storm Wind Swath
Captures effects of regional climate phenomena Captures effects of regional climate phenomena (e.g. ENSO, AMM)(e.g. ENSO, AMM)
Year by Year Comparison with Best Track and Year by Year Comparison with Best Track and with Knutson et al., 2007with Knutson et al., 2007
Couple Hurricane Model to Storm Surge Model (ADCIRC)Couple Hurricane Model to Storm Surge Model (ADCIRC)Results for the Battery, New York CityResults for the Battery, New York City
Importance of Potential Intensity in Importance of Potential Intensity in Controlling Tropical Cyclone ActivityControlling Tropical Cyclone Activity
Decomposition of Frequency TrendsDecomposition of Frequency Trends
Decomposition of PDI TrendsDecomposition of PDI Trends
Now Use Daily Output from IPCC Now Use Daily Output from IPCC Models to Derive Wind Statistics, Models to Derive Wind Statistics, Thermodynamic State Needed by Thermodynamic State Needed by
Synthetic Track TechniqueSynthetic Track Technique
1. Last 20 years of 20Last 20 years of 20thth century century simulationssimulations
2.2. Years 2180-2200 of IPCC Scenario Years 2180-2200 of IPCC Scenario A1b (COA1b (CO22 stabilized at 720 ppm) stabilized at 720 ppm)
Compare two simulations each from Compare two simulations each from 7 IPCC models:7 IPCC models:
U.S. Coastal Damage PotentialU.S. Coastal Damage Potential
Northeast U.S. Damage FunctionNortheast U.S. Damage Function
Application to the Climate of the Application to the Climate of the PliocenePliocene
with Alexey Federov and Chris Brierley, Yale
50
Pacific ocean SSTs
51
; Indo-Pacific
; Atlantic
Mg/Ca – solid boxes Alkenone – open
Pacific ocean SSTs
Brierley, Fedorov, Liu, Herbert, Lawrence, LaRiviere 2009, Science
4Ma
52
Pacific ocean SSTs
4Ma
; Indo-Pacific
; Atlantic
Mg/Ca – solid boxes Alkenone – open
Brierley, Fedorov, Liu, Herbert, Lawrence, LaRiviere 2009, Science
53
Tropical warm pool (observations)
Hypothetical warm pool in the early Pliocene (~4Ma)
oC oC
SummarySummary
• Potential intensity is an important (but not the only!) control on tropical cyclone activity
• On time scales long enough for the ocean mixed layer to be in thermal equilibrium, potential intensity is controlled largely by surface radiation, surface wind speed, ocean heat fluxes, and outflow temperature
• Simple but high resolution coupled TC model can be used to ‘downscale” TC activity from global climate data sets
• Studies based on this downscaling suggest large sensitivity of TCs to climate state, and possibly important role for TC-induced ocean mixing in regulating climate