African Economic Outlook 2003/2004
description
Transcript of African Economic Outlook 2003/2004
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African Economic OutlookAfrican Economic Outlook2003/20042003/2004
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Outline
Background information
Macroeconomic projections
Poverty outlook
Energy focus
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Background Information
A joint project by ADB
& OECD Development Centre
Structure Overview
Country Notes
Statistical Annex
Country coverage
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Country coverage, 2003/04
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The 2003/2004 outlook
A modest recovery, due to both internal and external
factors
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Growth rates in OECD area
0
1
2
3
4
5
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003(e) 2004(p) 2005(p)
United States European Union OECD trade weighted OECD average
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ODA to Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
US$
bil
lion
s
0
10
20
30
40
per
cen
tage
ODA to Africa Africa's share in ODA
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On the negative side: US dollar depreciation
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04
Euro
Rand
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Average growth rates of African countries
REGION AVERAGE 1996-2001
2002 2003(E) 2004(P) 2005(P)
Central 2.7 4.1 4.2 7.1 7.0
East 4.3 1.7 2.4 4.9 4.6
North 4.5 3.3 4.9 3.5 4.2
South 2.8 3.3 1.8 2.8 3.1
West 3.5 1.0 4.5 3.9 4.0
Total 3.6 2.7 3.6 3.6 4.0
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Best and worst performers
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.02004
2003
Central East North South West
Gabon
Equatorial Guinea
Madagascar
Zimbabwe
AngolaMozambique
Cote d'Ivoire
Sierra Leone
Chad
Seychelles
Ethiopia
Ethiopia
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Inflation is under control (with a few exceptions)
Agregate CPI inflation (%)
excluding hyper-inflation countries
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003(e 2004(p) 2005(p)
Central
East
North
South
West
Total
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Fiscal situation of many countries
is still weak
Fiscal balance as % of GDP, 2003 estimate
-12%
-9%
-6%
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
Central East North South West
Gabon
Seychelles
Algeria
Sao Tome EthiopiaEgypt
Zambia Sierra Leone
Guinea Bissau
Angola Togo
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Poverty
sub-Saharan Africa will miss the 2015 MDGs target by a large
extent
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The income poverty target
46.7
39.3
23.9
47.7
0
25
50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
SSA Actual SSA projected SSA path to goal
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Progress toward achieving MDGs
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Eradicate hunger
achieve universal primaryeducation
promote gender equality
reduce child mortality
ensure environmentalsustainability
achieved on track slightly off far behind slipping back no data
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Energy focus
The energy sectors may play significant role in poverty alleviation and development:
» Energy contributes to improving people’s lives
» Energy contributes to the development of economic activities
»Energy contributes to the efficiency of economic management
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Energy focus
However, the African energy sectors hardly play such a role; they are characterized by:
»too heavy reliance on traditional energy sources (biomass), related to inadequate supply of modern energy
» underutilization of potential sources of energy
» mismanagement of resources that are utilized
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Structure of energy consumption
in Africa (2001)
Coal 7 %
World structure:
Biomass 14%
Electricity 16%
Petroleum 44 %
Gas 16%Biomass
59%
Electricity8%
Coal4%
Petroleum25%
Gas4%
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Oil and NGLs
0
10
20
30
40
50
MiddleEast
SouthAmerica
Africa Asia Oceania Europe NorthAmerica
mill
ion
barr
els/
day
0
20
40
60
80
100
year
s of
pro
duct
ion
production reserves/production ratio
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Gas
0
200
400
600
800
1000
MiddleEast
Africa SouthAmerica
Europe Asia Oceania NorthAmerica
billi
on m
3
0
50
100
150
200
250
year
s
net production shrinkage flared reserves/production ratio
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Hydroelectric power
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Asia SouthAmerica
Europe Africa NorthAmerica
Oceania MiddleEast
TWh/
year
technically exploitable capability actual power generation
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Supply of motor gasoline in Nigeria (2001)
local production
40%
importation60%
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Observed taxation on oil export
0 20 40 60 80 100
UAE
Saudi Arabia
Algeria
Cameroon
Sudan
Angola
Gabon
Congo
Equatorial Guinea
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Electricity losses in 2001
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
OECD Total
ZambiaMozambique
MoroccoSouth Africa
TunisiaEthiopia
EgyptZimbabwe
GhanaCote d'Ivoire
AlgeriaGabon
SenegalKenya
TanzaniaCameroon
Nigeria
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Thank you