AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT FUND

MALI: 2015-2019 COUNTRY STRATEGY PAPER MID-TERM REVIEW AND 2018

COUNTRY PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE REVIEW

Mali Country Office (COML)

May 2019

Director General, RDGW: Marie Laure AKIN-OLUGBADE

Acting Director, ECCE: Ferdinand BAKOUP

Lead Economist, ECCE/RDGW: James Gituro WAHOME

Director, RDTS: Sibry TAPSOBA

Mali Country Manager: Haly Louise DJOUSSOU-LORNG/OURAGA

Review Team

Ameth Saloum NDIAYE, Principal Country Economist (COML, 7220); Nyaki

Zangbula KANINGBI, Principal Operations Officer (COML, 7202); Fatoumata B.

DIALLO, Senior Rural Engineer (COML, 7206); Hammadoun A. DIALL, Senior

Investment Officer (COML, 7204); Minemba TRAORE, Senior Social Development

Specialist (COML, 7211); Mohamed A. DIALLO, Senior Financial Management

Officer (COML, 7207); Pierre Chrysologue OUEDRAOGO, Procurement Officer

(COML, 7228); Cheik Mbaye, Former Consultant Macroeconomist (COML); El Hadji

Amadou M’baye, Principal Water and Sanitation Engineer (COML, 7224)

Peer Reviewers

Marcellin Ndong Ntah, Lead Economist (RDGE, 8398)

Stefan Muller, Lead Country Programme Coordinator (RDGS, 4653)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS ............................................................................................................................... i LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................. I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................... IV

I. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................................................... 1

II. COUNTRY CONTEXT AND PROSPECTS ................................................................................................ 1 II.1 RECENT POLITICAL TREND ..................................................................................................................... 1 II.2 ECONOMIC SITUATION ........................................................................................................................... 1 II.3 SOCIAL CONTEXT ................................................................................................................................... 6 II.4 CROSS-CUTTING THEMES ....................................................................................................................... 7

III. STRATEGIC OPTIONS ............................................................................................................................... 7 III.1 COUNTRY STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK ...................................................................................................... 7 III.2 AID COORDINATION AND HARMONISATION ........................................................................................... 8 III.3 BANK’S POSITIONING IN THE COUNTRY AND COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE ............................................ 8 III.4 STRENGTHS, OPPORTUNITIES, CHALLENGES AND WEAKNESSES ............................................................ 8

IV. CSP IMPLEMENTATION: RESULTS OBTAINED AT MID-TERM ....................................................... 9 IV.1 ALLOCATION OF BANK GROUP RESOURCES TO MALI ............................................................................ 9 IV.2 MID-TERM IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF THE OPERATIONS PROGRAMME ............................................ 9 IV.3 RESULTS ACHIEVED BY THE CSP AT MID-TERM .................................................................................. 10

IV.3.1 Pillar 1 – Improvement of Governance for Inclusive Growth ..................................................... 10 IV.3.2 Pillar 2 – Infrastructure Development to Support Economic Recovery ...................................... 10

IV.4 OTHER RESULTS OF THE STRATEGY ..................................................................................................... 11 IV.5 AFDB CONTRIBUTION TO ACHIEVEMENT OF THE HIGH 5S ................................................................... 12 IV.6 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PARIS DÉCLARATION, AND BUSAN COMMMITMENTS .................................. 12

V. COUNTRY PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE REVIEW ............................................................................ 12 V.1 BANK GROUP’S ACTIVE PORTFOLIO..................................................................................................... 12 V.2 PORTFOLIO MONITORING AND EVALUATION........................................................................................ 13 V.3 IMPLEMENTATION STATUS OF THE 2016 PPIP ...................................................................................... 13 V.4 PERFORMANCE OF BANK GROUP OPERATIONS IN MALI ....................................................................... 14 V.5 COUNTRY PERFORMANCE OUTCOMES BASED ON THE QUESTIONNAIRE ON PORTFOLIO QUALITY ...... 15 V.6 CONCLUSIONS OF MEETINGS WITH STAKEHOLDERS ............................................................................. 15 V.7 REVISED PPIP ...................................................................................................................................... 16

VI. LESSONS LEARNT AT MID-TERM ........................................................................................................ 16 VI.1 LESSONS FOR THE BANK GROUP .......................................................................................................... 16 VI.2 LESSONS FOR GOVERNMENT ................................................................................................................ 16 VI.3 LESSONS FOR OTHER DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS. ................................................................................ 16

VII. BANK’S STRATEGY FOR THE REMAINING CSP PERIOD ............................................................ 17 VII.1 RELEVANCE OF THE PILLARS OF THE STRATEGY .............................................................................. 17 VII.2 BANK’S ASSISTANCE STRATEGY FOR THE REMAINING CSP PERIOD ................................................ 17 VII.3 INDICATIVE ASSISTANCE PROGRAMME FOR THE REMAINING CSP PERIOD ...................................... 18 VII.4 NON-LENDING ACTIVITIES ............................................................................................................... 18 VII.5 AREAS OF DIALOGUE WITH THE COUNTRY ...................................................................................... 18 VII.6 MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF THE BANK GROUP’S ASSISTANCE ............................................ 18 VII.7 RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ................................................................................................ 18

VIII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ....................................................................................... 19

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Key Macroeconomic Indicators, 2015-2020

Table 2: Mali’s Performance in the Doing Business Ranking, 2015-2019

Table 3: Indicators of the Number of Kilometres of Roads in Mali, 2015-2017 (km)

Table 4: Rate of Access to Drinking Water in Mali, 2016-2017 (%)

Table 5: Trend of Energy Sector Indicators in Mali, 2015-2017

Table 6: Trend of the Unemployment Rate in Mali, 2015-2017 (%)

Table 7: Risks and Mitigation Measures

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1: Breakdown of Active Portfolio by Sector

Figure 2: Breakdown of Portfolio by High 5

LIST OF BOXES

Box 1: A Presidential Term of Office that Looks Difficult

Box 2: Strengths, Opportunities, Challenges and Weaknesses

LIST OF ANNEXES

Annex 1: Table A.1: Mali’s External Debt Sustainability Indicators, 2018–2038 (%)

Annex 2: Figure A.1: Trend of the Incidence of Poverty in Mali by Place of Residence, 2001-

2017 (%)

Annex 3: Table A.2: Mali’s Classified, Developed and Undeveloped Road Network, 2018

Annex 4: Table A.3: State of the Developed Road Network in Mali

Annex 5: Potential of the Agricultural Sector in Mali

Annex 6: 2018 Diagnosis of Fragility Factors in Mali

Annex 7: 2014 Diagnosis of Fragility Factors in Mali

Annex 8: Table A.4: Interventions of Development Partners in Mali in 2016

Annex 9: Table A.5: Sectors of Intervention of Development Partners in Mali in 2016

Annex 10: Table A.6: Results-Based Framework of Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP

Annex 11: Table A.7: AfDB Overall Portfolio in Mali

Annex 12: Table A.8: 2018 Revised Country Portfolio Performance Improvement Plan

Annex 13: Table A.9: 2019 Operational Indicative Programme

Annex 14: Table A.10: Mali: Key Macro-economic Indicators

Annex 15: Table A.11: Mali: Comparative Socio-economic Indicators

Annex 16: Mali: Country Fiduciary Risk Assessment (CFRA)

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

December 2018

Currency unit = CFA Franc (XOF)

UA 1 = XOF 801.04

EUR 1 = XOF 655.96

USD 1 = XOF 579.57

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ADF African Development Fund

ADRU Koulikoro Semi-Urban Agropole Development Programme

AFD French Development Agency

AfDB African Development Bank

AfIF African Investment Facility

ANASER National Road Safety Agency

ATI African Trade Insurance Agency

BCEAO Central Bank of West African States

BD Bidding Document

BDM Mali Development Bank

BMS Mali Solidarity Bank

BSIC Sahel-Saharan Bank for Investment and Trade

ANRC African Natural Resources Centre

CFAF Franc of African Financial Cooperation

CIF Climate Investment Funds

CODE Committee on Operations and Development Effectiveness

COML AfDB Country Office in Mali

CPI Corruption Perception Index

CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment

CPPR Country Portfolio Performance Review

CREDD Strategic Framework for Economic Recovery and Sustainable

Development

CSCOM Community Health Centres

CSCRP Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategic Framework

CSP Country Strategy Paper

DDR Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration

DFM Department of Finance and Equipment

DGMP-DSP General Directorate of Public Procurement and Public Service

Delegations

DSA Debt Sustainability Analysis

DWS Drinking Water Supply

ECF Extended Credit Facility

ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States

EIB European Investment Bank

ii

ELIM Light Survey of Household Living Conditions

ESIA Environmental and Social Impact Assessment

ESS Economic and Sectoral Studies

EU European Union

FDI Foreign Direct Investments

FOJEP Youth Forum for Employment and Peace

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GEF Global Environment Facility

HDI Human Development Index

ICT Information and Communication Technology

IFC International Finance Corporation

IMF International Monetary Fund

INSTAT National Institute of Statistics

IsDB Islamic Development Bank

LTS Long-Term Strategy

M3 Moulin Moderne du Mali Project

MDG Millennium Development Goals

MIEC Joint Assessment Mission to Northern Mali

UA Unit of Account

MW Megawatt

OITC AfDB Transport Infrastructure, Urban Development and ICT

Department

OPSD AfDB Private Sector Department

ORS Segou Rice Authority

P2RS Multinational Programme to Strengthen Resilience to Food and

Nutrition Insecurity in the Sahel

PACE-I Economic Growth Support Programme

PADEPA-KS Livestock Development Support Project in Kayes Sud

PAGAM/GFP Government Action Plan for the Improvement and Modernisation of

Public Financial Management

PAGODA Pillar Assessed Grant or Delegation Agreement

PAP Priority Action Plan

PARGE Economic Governance Reform Support Programme

PATAM-EAJ Support Programme for Agriculture Transformation in Mali- Youth

Employment Component

PDA/RN Accelerated Development Programme for Northern Regions

PDIBS Irrigation Development Project in Bani Basins and Selegué

PDIR-PD2 Integrated Development and Climate Resilience of Populations in the

Delta 2 Plains

PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability

PEMFAR Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability Review

PMU Project Management Unit

PPIA Public Policy and Institutional Assessment

iii

PPIP Portfolio Performance Improvement Plan

PPP Public-Private Partnership

PRED Plan for Sustainable Recovery

PREM Reform Plan for Public Financial Management in Mali

PRESA-DCI Project to Strengthen Food Security through the Development of

Irrigated Crops

PRESAN-KL Project to Strengthen Food and Nutrition Security in the Koulikoro

Region

PRODEC Ten-Year Education Development Programme

PRODEFPE Ten-Year Programme for the Development of Vocational Training for

Employment

PRODESS Socio-Health Development Programme

PROSEA Drinking Water and Sanitation Sector Programme

RGPH General Population and Housing Census

RGUE General Census of Economic Units

RISP Regional Integration Strategy Paper

SAGT Transition Management Support Strategy

SCAP Common Country Support Strategy

SDAB Study of the Sanitation Master Plan

SDG Sustainable Development Goals

SHA Secretariat for Aid Harmonisation

SMART Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Realistic, and Time Bound

SME Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

SMI Small and Medium-sized Industries

SRAS Strategic Resource Assessment Software

SREP Scaling-up Renewable Energy Programme

TFP Technical and Financial Partner

ToR Terms of Reference

TSF Transition Support Facility

TSP Transport Sector Programme

UA Unit of Account

UNDP United Nations Development Programme

WADB West African Development Bank

WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union

WB World Bank

iv

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. This Report focuses on the Mali’s Country Strategy Paper (CSP) 2015-2019 Mid-Term

Review combined with the 2018 Portfolio Performance Review. On 4 November 2015, the

Board of Directors of the African Development Bank approved Mali’s CSP covering the 2015-

2019 period, with the following two pillars: (i) Enhancing governance for inclusive growth; (ii)

Infrastructure development to support economic recovery. The 2015-2019 CSP was aligned

with the 2012-2017 Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategic Framework (CSCRP) and the

2016-2018 Strategic Framework for Economic Recovery and Sustainable Development

(CREDD), which was adopted to better take into account the crisis (and therefore the fragility)

in which the country found itself. However, the timeline for the production of this mid-term

review was affected by the country's turbulent political context in an environment of fragility

and also by the movement of Bank staff in Mali.

2. Despite this fragile political and security environment, Mali has maintained

macroeconomic stability over the period covered by the CSP mid-term review, with an

economic growth of about 5% in 2018, despite a persistent bearish trend. This economic growth

is not at all inclusive, because poverty increased from 42.7% in 2012 to 44.9% in 2017.

3. The review of the results matrix reveals that most of the planned results have been

achieved as part of the mid-term implementation of the CSP.

4. At the strategic level, the main lesson of the mid-term review is that the Bank has

properly addressed Mali’s most pressing development challenges. Since the adoption of the

2015-2019 CSP, Government has gradually put greater emphasis on the transformation and

development of agriculture in the country’s development policies, as well as in dialogue with

the Bank in the context of this mid-term review.

5. Consultations with Government and other stakeholders have concluded that, for the

remaining period of the 2015-2019 CSP, the Bank’s strategy and the strategic pillars remain

relevant, and can, therefore, remain unchanged. Pillar 1 will continue to support the Bank’s

actions aimed at improving governance for inclusive growth. Pillar 2, on its part, will continue

to support the Bank’s actions aimed at developing infrastructure to support economic recovery.

In implementing these two pillars over the remaining period, the Bank will pay particular

attention to the transformation of agriculture and the development of value chains.

6. As an ADF country, Mali is facing resource constraints. For the remaining CSP period,

the available resources stand at UA 13.11 million representing a country allocation under ADF-

14 (PBA and TSF), and UA 21 million representing resources from the cancellation of the

Bamako city sanitation project. These resources will be used to finance Mali’s membership to

the African Trade Insurance Agency (ATI), the partial risk guarantee for the Kiéné project,

budget support, the Agropole project Bamako peri-urban.

7. The Committee on Operations and Development Effectiveness (CODE) is invited to

take note of this mid-term review of Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP.

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I. INTRODUCTION

1. This report focuses on the mid-term review of the AfDB 2015-2019 Country

Strategy Paper (CSP) for Mali, combined with the 2018 Country Portfolio Performance

Review. This CSP, which was approved by the AfDB Board of Directors on 4 November 2015,

supports the implementation of the Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategic Framework

(CSCRP), which was the policy framework in Mali for the 2012-2017 period, then the Strategic

Framework for Economic Recovery and Sustainable Development (CREDD), which was the

reference framework for 2016-2018 due to the context of the country’s severe political crisis.

The CSP builds on two pillars: (i) Enhancing governance for inclusive growth; (ii)

Infrastructure development to support economic recovery.

2. This report assesses the mid-term progress of the 2015-2019 CSP, the country portfolio

performance, and the relevance of the Bank Group’s strategy in light of the country’s fragile

situation. It also draws lessons for continued AfDB assistance to Mali for the remaining period,

in line with the country’s priorities, the Bank’s Ten-Year Strategy and the High 5s.

II. COUNTRY CONTEXT AND PROSPECTS

II.1 Recent Political Trend

3. The country is marked by a turbulent political context and a very fragile security

situation, with the highly contested presidential elections of August 2018 and parliamentary

elections, initially scheduled for December 2018, but postponed to June 2019 by decision of

the Constitutional Court. The implementation of institutional reforms envisaged as part of the

Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation resulting from the Algiers Process and the expansion

of insecurity to the regions of central Mali are the risks that may lead to the future postponement

of parliamentary elections in June 2019. To contain these risks, Government has implemented

a new territorial division to better organise legislative elections, but also has implemented the

institutional reforms provided for by the Algiers Agreement. Political governance in Mali

between 2015 and 2017 does not seem to have improved, since the country was ranked 28th out

of 54 countries in Africa in 2017, according to the Mo Ibrahim Index with a score of 50.1/100,

against 51.1/100 in 2016 and 50.9/100 in 2015. Data on Transparency International’s

Corruption Perception Index (CPI) shows a sharp rise in corruption in Mali from the 95th

country in 2015 to 120th in 2018.

4. Despite delays in the implementation of the Agreement for Peace and

Reconciliation, the process of Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration of Armed

Groups (DDR) was launched in November 2018 in Gao (north of the country). This progress in

the DDR process is an important stage in the implementation of the Algiers Agreement.

II.2 Economic Situation

Macroeconomic Situation

5. Mali’s economic growth reached 5% in 2018, although it continues to fall relative

to previous years, where it stood at 5.3% in 2017, 5.8% in 2016, and 6% in 2015, (Table 1),

because of Mali’s persistent fragility. As concerns supply, the economy is based on agriculture

Box 1 : A Presidential Term of Office that Looks Difficult

President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita’s new term of office looks difficult, given the major challenges:

(i) Difficulties in effectively implementing the Agreement for Peace and National Reconciliation;

(ii) Widening insecurity in the central regions of the country, making it dificult to organise legislative and

regional elections; and

(iii) The unending strike by Magistrates that paralyses the functioning of the judicial system.

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(driven by cotton) and services (driven by financial activities and trade), whose contribution to

growth stood at 1.9% and 2.3%, respectively, in 2018 (against 2.1% and 1.6%, respectively, in

2017). In terms of demand, household consumption is the main driver of economic growth in

Mali, with a contribution of 3.3% in 2018, compared to 4.1% in 2017. At the level of prices,

the prudent monetary policy of the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO), has kept

inflation at a modest level of 1.7% in 2018, against 1.8% in 2017. As for the external sector,

we note a deterioration of the current account deficit in 2018 to 6.5% of GDP (against 6% of

GDP in 2017), due to the rise in imports (9.3%) stronger than the increase in exports (7.2%).

The terms of trade deteriorated in 2018 by 4.9%, and in 2017 by 1.5%. Mali has recorded a

persistent decline in its external reserves, the level of which could only finance 0.1 months of

imports in 2018 and 2017, against 0.6 in 2016, and 1.8 in 2015. This continuing decline in

foreign exchange reserves is worrying as the minimum for external reserves to be considered

sufficient is 3 months of imports. Thus, Mali is in a situation where its external reserves are

insufficient, exposing the country to the inability to cope with external shocks. Nevertheless,

centralised management of foreign exchange reserves by the Central Bank of West African

States (BCEAO) enables Mali to continue to meet its external commitments.

6. From a fiscal standpoint, authorities aim to maintain the overall fiscal balance at

a level consistent with the sustainability of the public debt and meet the convergence

criterion of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). In 2018, the

overall fiscal deficit was limited and improved from 2.9% of GDP in 2017 to 2.5% of GDP in

2018 (Table 1).

7. Economic prospects look relatively optimistic for the medium term (Table 1). Growth rate forecasts are 4.7% in 2019 and 2020. Inflation should remain moderate at around

1.7% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. The current account deficit is expected to improve from 6.5%

of GDP in 2018 to 6.3% and 6.1% of GDP in 2019 and 2020 respectively. The fall in the fiscal

deficit is expected to continue in 2019 and 2020, when it should be at 2.4% of GDP and 1.5%

of GDP, respectively, against an average of 3.1% of GDP over the period 2016-2018. However,

there are risks to this outlook, notably: (i) the fragility of the security situation; (ii) exogenous

shocks such as climate variability; (iii) the volatility of gold and cotton prices; and (iv) the

tightening of the BCEAO’s monetary policy, which could increase the cost of domestic debt.

Table 1 : Key Macroeconomic Indicators, 2015-2020 (%)

2015 2016 2017 2018(e) 2019(p) 2020(p)

Real GDP growth 6.0 5.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.7

Inflation 1.5 -1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.8

Budget balance (% of GDP) -1.8 -3.9 -2.9 -2.5 -2.4 -1.5

Current account balance (% of GDP) -5.3 -7.2 -6.0 -6.5 -6.3 -6.1

Source: Data from the Statistics Department (ECST) of the AfDB.

Note: (e) refers to data estimation, and (p) refers to data prediction.

8. At the level of public financial management, Mali has recently implemented

reforms. Government adopted a new Public Financial Management Reform Plan (2017-2021

PREM) in 2016, with the ambition of consolidating the achievements of the Government Action

Plan for Public Financial Management Improvement and Modernization (PAGAM/GFP),

implemented from 2006 to 2016. A third PEFA assessment was carried out in 2016 and the

results indicate that: (i) progress has been made in the preparation and execution of the budget

through the implementation of WAEMU Directives and the strengthening of legal instruments

on external audit bodies; (ii) weaknesses persist, namely the large number and volume of tax

exemptions and insufficient transparency of the public procurement system. Government is

committed to the implementation of the WAEMU Harmonised Public Finance Framework. As

such, the 2018 Finance Act has been drafted and executed in programme budget mode.

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9. The debt sustainability analysis, carried out in May 2018 by the International

Monetary Fund and the World Bank, indicates that the risk of debt distress is moderate. It is estimated that public debt will increase to 35.9% of GDP in 2018 (against 35.6% of GDP

in 2017), while the external debt will drop to 24.1% of GDP in 2018 (compared to 25.6% of

GDP in 2017). This decline in external debt is offset by an increase in domestic debt to 12.5%

of GDP (against 11% of GDP in 2017). Indeed, Government increased the issuance of domestic

debt assets in 2018, to offset the decline in external debt. The Debt Sustainability Analysis

(DSA) shows that all outstanding debt and external debt service ratios are below thresholds

(Table A.1 in the annex).

10. Mali’s performance in the Doing Business ranking is weak because it is among

the 45 worst performing countries in the world (Table 2). In addition, between 2015 and

2019, the country’s performance did not improve since, in Ease of doing business, Mali rose

from 146th out of 189 countries, with a score of 52.59 in 2015, to 145th out of 190 countries,

with a score of 53.50 in 2019.

Table 2 : Mali’s Performance in the Doing Business Ranking, 2015-2019

Indicator 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score

Starting a business 169 62.92 172 66.05 108 84.12 104 84.46 110 84.05

Dealing with construction permits 97 70.84 152 57.98 142 61.02 134 61.36 109 66.74

Getting electricity 132 63.88 151 48.95 152 50.60 154 51.12 159 51.57

Registering property 133 57.63 140 50.08 135 50.37 137 51.43 141 51.51

Getting credit 131 30.00 133 30.00 139 30.00 142 30.00 144 30.00

Protecting minority investment 146 42.50 166 35.00 145 40.00 146 40.00 149 40.00

Paying taxes 145 60.16 149 60.16 144 57.50 166 51.55 165 51.55

Trading across borders 163 46.33 149 45.58 89 70.79 85 73.30 92 73.30

Enforcing contracts 128 51.25 82 73.98 156 43.73 159 42.80 159 42.80

Resolving insolvency 108 40.35 100 40.35 99 41.46 94 43.22 97 43.45

Ease of doing business 146 52.59 143 50.81 141 52.96 143 52.92 145 53.50

Source: World Bank Doing Business Annual Reports (2015 to 2019 editions).

Note: Rank: 1-189 for 2015 and 2016 ; 1-190 for 2017, 2018 and 2019. Score: 0-100.

11. Despite Government’s desire to improve economic governance, major challenges

remain in Mali. Corruption is one of the greatest obstacles to foreign investment and the

country’s economic development (IMF, 2015). To stem this phenomenon, Government in 2017,

created the Central Office for Combating Illicit Enrichment, in addition to existing government

agencies dealing with corruption, namely: the Bamako Economic and Financial Centre, the

Office of the Auditor General, and the Accounts Section of the Supreme Court. All of these

efforts have not yet really reduced the perception of corruption, which remains high, based on

Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index data above (see Paragraph 3). Mali’s

Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating was 3.66/6 in 2018 and that of

governance 3.73/6 in 2018. Government has developed, with the support of technical and

financial partners, a governance matrix that proposes reforms in terms of institutional

development, economic management, public finance, land tenure, the fight against corruption

and financial crime.

12. In terms of regional integration, Mali is a landlocked country, which reinforces

the interest of regional integration for this country. Government has made regional

integration a priority in the 2016-2018 CREDD. The Bank supports the country in its

participation in regional integration by financing regional projects between Mali and other

countries of the sub-region, notably Côte d’Ivoire in the area of roads, Guinea in terms of

electricity interconnection, and the Sahel countries in agriculture.

Sectoral Situation

13. For reasons that will be developed below, Pillar 1 of the 2015-2019 CSP is maintained

but will be changed in the new 2020-2024 CSP and will focus on the transformation of

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agriculture and the development of value chains. Indeed, since only a few months are left to

reach the end of the 2015-2019 CSP period, a change of pillar is therefore not appropriate in

the current 2015-2019 CSP, but will rather be implemented in the next 2020-2024 CSP. Hence

the importance of establishing a sectoral discussion.

Road Infrastructure

14. During the 2015-2019 CSP period, the Government of Mali adopted, in the Council of

Ministers of 28 October 2015, the National Policy on Transport, Transport Infrastructure and

Accessibility, which aims to "cover the entire territory with a modern infrastructure network"

up to 2035.

15. Table 3 shows that, over the period 2015-2017, 34,130 km of roads were maintained,

539.6 km of paved roads were constructed, and 888 km of tracks were constructed or

rehabilitated. However, the total number of km of roads maintained annually dropped sharply

from 15,778 km in 2015 to 9,687 km in 2017. The number of km of paved roads constructed

per year was low in 2017 with only 85 km, against 283 km in 2016 and 171.6 km in 2015. The

road network in Mali is characterised by the magnitude of the undeveloped classified network,

which is about 76% of the classified road network (Table A.2 in Annex 3). This small

percentage of the developed road network shows the enormous gap that the authorities must

cover to develop the entire classified road netork. Furthermore, only 15% of the developed

network road is in good condition, 32% in a passable state, and 53% is a bad state, thus

suggesting that Mali’s developed road network is highly degraded (Table A.3 in Annex 4).

Table 3 : Indicators of the Number of Kilometres of Roads in Mali, 2015-2017 (km)

Indicators 2015 2016 2017

Length of paved roads maintained 5,895 4,823 4,951

Length of earth roads maintained 9,883 3,842 4,735

Length of earth roads in good condition 10,038 nd 7,663

Total length of roads maintained 15,778 8,665 9,687

Length of paved roads constructed 171.6 283 85

Length of tracks constructed or rehabilitated 864 24 0

Source: DNR/SDR/SPC activity reports (from the 2016-2018 CREDD).

Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Infrastructure

16. In the dynamics of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), Mali is committed to

universal access to drinking water and sanitation by 2030. To this end, the 2016-2018 CREDD

makes the water and sanitation sector a national priority.

17. For the water sector, the reference water policy in Mali is the National Water Policy,

adopted in 2006. The policy, targeting 100% access to drinking water by 2030, is being adjusted

and the new policy will be in force in 2019. This document indicates that significant progress

has been made, but that water remains a major issue in Mali. The national rate of access to

drinking water was 68% in 2017 against 66.9% in 2016, suggesting that access to drinking

water is far from universal in Mali (see Table 4). Access to drinking water is lower in rural

areas with 65.3% in 2017 (against 65.3% in 2016), compared to 74.7% in urban areas in 2017

(against 70.6% in 2016). These low rates of access to drinking water justify the urgent need to

set up adequate infrastructure in order to move towards universal access to drinking water.

Table 4 : Rate of Access to Drinking Water in Mali, 2016-2017 (%)

Level 2016 2017

Rural areas 65.3 65.3

Urban and semi-urban areas 70.6 74.7

National 66.9 68

Source: DNH 2017 Annual Report (from the 2016-2018 CREDD).

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18. Regarding the sanitation sector, the sanitation reference policy in Mali is the National

Sanitation Policy, adopted in 2009. Targeting a sanitation access rate of 100% by 2030, this

policy is being adjusted and the new policy will be in force in 2019. With an average annual

urban growth rate of 5.6%, there is a significant increase in the quantity of waste generated per

day, about 5,000 m3/day nationally, according to the General Population and Housing Census

(2009 RGPH), including 3,000 m3 for Bamako City alone. Although access to improved and

sustainable sanitation has increased in the country, it remains insufficient, at a rate of only 35%

in 2016 (MICS, 2016); which is very far from the universal access targets set under the SDGs.

The lack of sanitation infrastructure and the absence of a waste disposal and treatment subsector

in urban or rural areas, have a negative impact on the living environment of the population.

Indeed, sanitation and waste management are an important part of people’s living environment,

since they have a direct impact on health and also on economic opportunities (attractiveness of

the territory, structuring of the waste management subsectors, etc.). There is therefore need for

sanitation infrastructure

Energy Infrastructure

19. The Government of Mali approved in the Council of Ministers of 29 March 2006, the

National Energy Policy, which was revised in 2018. The overall objective of this policy is to

"contribute to the country’s sustainable development, through the provision of energy services

accessible to the majority of the population at a lower cost and encouraging the promotion of

socio-economic activities". In 2017, activities were carried out in production capacity building,

grid extension, promotion of rural electrification and development of renewable energy sources

to cover the electricity needs of people and Mali’s socio-economic activities. These actions

have helped to improve the quality of the public electricity service (see Table 5). The national

rate of access to electricity was 42% in 2017, against 39% in 2016, and 36.11% in 2015. Despite

this improvement, the national rate of access to electricity is still very low, and does not

highlight the strong disparities between rural and urban areas. Indeed, the rate of access to

electricity was 94% in urban areas against 18.63% in rural areas in 2017; 86% in urban areas

against 19.39% in rural areas in 2016; and 98.52% in urban areas against 15.75% in rural areas

in 2015.

Table 5 : Trend of Energy Sector Indicators in Mali, 2015-2017

Indicator 2015 2016 2017

Rate of access to electricity (%) 36.11 39 42

Rate of access to electricity in urban areas (%) 98.52 86 94

Rate of access to electricity in rural areas (%) 15.75 19,39 18.63

EDM 1st tranche social electricity tariff, net of VAT (in CFAF) 59 59 59

EDM electricity generation (GWh) 1,743.4 1,905.2 2,081.4

Butane gas consumption (in tonnes) 13,087 14,530 18,263.3

Source: Collection of 2017 Mines-Energy Sector SPC Statistics Indicators (from 2016-2018 CREDD)

20. Low access to electricity seems likely to persist over time. Indeed, estimates indicate

that the rate of access to electricity in 2020 will be 45% at national level, 90% in urban areas

and 21% in rural areas; and in 2036, it will be 70% at national level, 100% in urban areas and

50% in rural areas. It is essential to meet the country’s energy needs in quality, quantity and at

lower cost.

Agriculture and Food Security

21. The Agricultural Development Policy (PDA) was adopted by the Government of Mali

in August 2013. In support of the PDA, the National Investment Plan for the Agricultural Sector

(2015-2025 PNISA) is Mali’s national planning framework for the agricultural sector. The

actors in Mali’s agricultural sector are unanimous on the fact that the development of this

country is dependent on that of the agricultural sector, which is the main source of wealth and

job creation, with 39.3% of production in 2018 (against 36.7% for the tertiary sector, and 24%

6

for the secondary sector), 62.4% of jobs, and more than 90% of export revenue in 2017. The

2017 agricultural census shows 79,260 farms in Mali, characterised by the limited number of

surface areas (on average 2 hectares), making it more difficult to move from subsistence

farming to commercial farming. Furthermore, the primary sector in Mali represents only 5.6%

of salaried jobs; which shows that efforts are still needed to improve agricultural sector income.

22. Studies show that food and nutrition insecurity is the major concern of Malian people1

(2016-2018 CREDD). The last National Food and Nutrition Security Survey (ENSAN) in

September 2018 shows that 19.1% of Malian households (compared to 23.3% in September

2017) are affected by food insecurity (2.6% of which are in a severe situation), with a 10%

acute malnutrition rate and a 24% chronic malnutrition rate. In absolute terms, the November

2018 Harmonised Framework (CH) estimates that there are 2.5 million people in a food

insecurity situation in Mali, including 185,000 people in a severe situation (2018 ENSAN).

23. Despite these challenges, Mali has enormous assets to develop the agricultural sector,

and stop the phenomenon of food insecurity. These assets, notably, are: (i) abundant water

resources (existence of a significant potential for irrigation of 2.2 million hectares, groundwater

resources estimated at 2,720 billion m³); (ii) abundant agricultural land resources (43.7 million

hectares of agricultural land, only 7% of which is cultivated, or 93% of agricultural land not yet

exploited); (iii) abundant human resources (the active rural population represents 78% of the

total population of Mali). Annex 5 provides a more detailed analysis of the potential of Mali’s

agricultural sector.

Industrial Sector

24. Despite the adoption by Mali of investment, mining exploitation, trade and labour

codes aimed at encouraging investment, the industrial sector, although clearly progressing,

remains embryonic. Industrial sector contribution to wealth creation in Mali is the lowest, with

24% of production in 2018, compared to 39.3% for the agricultural sector and 36.7% for the

tertiary sector. Extractive industries, construction and textiles are the main components of

Mali’s industrial sector.

II.3 Social Context

25. Mali’s population was estimated at 19.1 million inhabitants in 2018, with a low density

of 15.8 inhabitants/km2, an annual population growth rate of 3.1% in 2018, a birth rate of 41.5

per 1,000, and a fertility rate of 5.9 children per woman in 2018. The proportion of young people

aged 24 and over, represents 66.7% of the population in 2018. Between 2010-2016, 25% of

children under 5 were underweight, and 30.4% of them were malnourished and stunted. Overall,

the social situation in Mali is slow to improve (Figure A.1 in the annex). From the 2012 shock,

poverty increased up to 2015 and dropped slightly in 2016 to 46.8% and in 2017 to 44.9%. In

terms of inequality, the Gini Index dropped from 0.35 in 2016 to 0.34 in 2017, suggesting that

the disparities have remained unchanged. Inequalities have increased: (i) between the various

segments of the population (urban against rural areas, men against women); (ii) at the spatial

level (northern against southern regions, major cities against villages) and ; (iii) in areas such

as access to land and employment. Human development has deteriorated with a Human

Development Index (HDI) of 0.427 in 2018 (against 0.442 in 2016), and a ranking of 182nd out

of 189 countries in 2018 (against 175th out of 188 countries in 2016).

26. In the area of health, Mali has made progress. Infant mortality dropped to 65.8 per

1,000 births in 2017, compared to 67.4 in 2016. Maternal mortality is on a downtrend, at a rate

of 587 per 100,000 live births in 2015, down from 601 in 2014. The HIV/AIDS prevalence rate

also dropped to 1.2% in 2017, against 1.3% in 2016.

1 Food security and agricultural production are intimately linked in developing countries.

7

Tuberculosis immunisation coverage stagnated at 73% in 2017 and 2016. Life expectancy at

birth dropped from 59.5 years in 2017 to 58.9 years in 2018.

27. With regard to education, despite an increase in primary school enrollment,

maintaining regular schooling remains a major challenge. Enrolment in secondary school

remains low. Furthermore, adult literacy rates have made little progress. The gross primary

enrollment rate rose to 80.1% in 2017, compared to 77.1% in 2016 and 75.6% in 2015.

28. In Mali, unemployment is higher among young people and women (Table 6). The

overall unemployment rate stood at 9.1% in 2017 (against 10.1% in 2016 and 9.6% in 2015).

Young people are the social group most affected by unemployment for a level of 14.9% in 2017

(compared to 17.0% in 2016 and 15.7% in 2015), followed by women at 10.4% in 2017 (against

11.6% in 2016 and 11.0% in 2015), and men at less than 9% between 2015 and 2017. .

Table 6: Trend of the Unemployment Rate in Mali, 2015-2017 (%)

2015 2016 2017

Overall unemployment rate 9.6 10.1 9.1

Male unemployment rate 8.5 8.8 8.0

Female unemployment rate 11.0 11.6 10.4

Youth unemployment rate (15-35 years) 15.7 17.0 14.9

Source: INSTAT, 2015-2016, 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 EMOP.

II.4 Cross-cutting Themes

29. Gender. As regards gender, women generally have lower human capital than

men. Their high illiteracy and their low level of education limit their employment opportunities.

Legal protection often favours men. The proportion of seats held by women in the National

Assembly is very low: 8.8% in 2017, 2016 and 2015.

30. Fragility. In 2018, the Bank carried out a diagnosis of fragility factors in Mali. This

diagnosis revealed five categories of factors, namely: (i) Factor 1 – Political, security and

institutional fragilities; (ii) Factor 2 – Economic and financial fragilities; (iii) Factor 3 – Social

fragilities, those related to poverty and those of an unequal nature; (iv) Factor 4 – Fragilities

related to the environmental challenge; (v) Factor 5 – Regional and international fragilities (see

Annexes 6 and 7). The Bank has taken into account fragility issues in its operations in Mali.

31. Environment and Climate Change. Mali was signatory to the United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21) in Paris in 2015. The country has also

incorporated the environmental dimension and climate change into the 2016-2018 CREDD.

III. STRATEGIC OPTIONS

III.1 Country Strategic Framework

32. As part of the 2015-2019 CSP, the 2016-2018 CREDD was the policy framework in

Mali2. Through its two pillars, the 2015-2019 CSP is aligned with CREDD. The 2016-2018

CREDD has come to an end, and the 2019-2023 CREDD is being adopted. The national

consultation workshop on this new strategic framework took place from 11-13 March 2019.

The document is already transmitted to the Prime Minister’s Office for adoption in the Council

of Ministers. The Bank’s next 2020-2024 CSP for Mali will be aligned with the 2019-2023

CREDD.

2 The 2016 – 2018 CREDD was adopted in April 2016.

8

III.2 Aid Coordination and Harmonisation

33. Three levels of coordination exist for Mali’s Technical and Financial Partners (TFP)

Group: (i) overall coordination around CREDD; (ii) sectoral and thematic coordination around

12 Theme Groups (TG); and (iii) the "floating" level constituted by the ad hoc groups.

34. Within the framework of their partnership relations, Government and TFPs have

various dialogue frameworks, which are aimed at monitoring development policies and the

budget process, improving the predictability and effectiveness of aid and ensuring mutual

accountability to the citizens of Mali.

III.3 Bank’s Positioning in the Country and Comparative Advantage

35. The Bank is active in the field of aid coordination and harmonisation in Mali. The

AfDB was coordinator of the "Economy and Finance" TG from November 2013 to January

2017. Currently, it is a member of this TG, which consists of two sub-groups: "Statistics" and

"Private sector development". It is also currently coordinator of the "Transport" TG and active

member of various TGs.

36. In terms of portfolio size, the AfBD, the European Union and the World Bank are the

multilateral donors with a stronger presence in Mali (Table A.4 in Annex 8). In 2016, the AfDB

had the 3rd largest portfolio in Mali (CFAF 473.5 billion), after the European Union (CFAF

896.9 billion) and the World Bank (CFAF 767.4 billion). The AfDB invests mainly in the

agricultural sector, where it has developed a comparative advantage. The main bilateral donors

are the United States, Germany, China and France. Agriculture is the sector most widely

covered by partners (Table A.5 in Annex 9). However, support for agriculture is still

insufficient.

37. The international community pays particular attention to Mali because of the country’s

security situation and the consequences for the stability of the entire sub-region. The Bank is

an important actor of the international community’s action in this country. Indeed, the Bank has

been called upon to play an active role in the response to Mali’s fragility situation, particularly

in the context of the Alliance for the Sahel, where the Bank plays a leading role in the agriculture

sector.

III.4 Strengths, Opportunities, Challenges and Weaknesses

38. The analysis of the country context in previous sections shows that Mali’s main

strengths and opportunities, as well as its challenges and weaknesses (Box 2) have largely

remained the same as those identified during the adoption of the 2015-2019 CSP. However,

some challenges have become more pronounced since the approval of the CSP, particularly in

terms of financial governance, which affects certain AfDB projects and, therefore, the quality

of its portfolio. In addition, greater effort is necessary to accelerate structural transformation,

especially through strengthened support for sectors with potential for greater value added.

9

IV. CSP IMPLEMENTATION: RESULTS OBTAINED AT MID-TERM

IV.1 Allocation of Bank Group Resources to Mali

39. The 2015-2019 CSP for Mali covers the last two years of ADF-13 and the ADF-

14 cycle. The amount of resources for financing the 2015-2019 CSP was initially estimated at

UA 310 million. The indicative country allocation, based on the performance of ADF-13, was

UA 54.82 million for 2014-2016 and the remaining for 2015-2016 was UA 28 million. The

strategy also benefited from resources within the framework of performance-based allocation

(PBA) for ADF-14 for an amount of UA 56.37 million and the additional resources of Pillar I

of the TSF for UA 60 million under ADF-14. The strategy also banked on resources from the

private sector window, Pillar III of the TSF, the regional operations package and other trust

funds.

IV.2 Mid-Term Implementation Status of the Operations Programme

40. The operational lending programme provided for in the CSP was very selective, due

to the country’s initial limited allocation. It provided for 16 new operations, including 9 projects

for water and sanitation, energy and transport; 3 budget support operations; 1 institutional

support operation in economic governance; and 3 project studies in the transport sector. The

non-lending programme included 3 economic and sector works . At mid-term, 2 projects of the

lending programme had not yet met the conditions precedent to first disbursement and 1 lending

programme project has been cancelled. For the non-lending programme, at mid-term, only one

study was carried out among the 3 planned.

Box 3: Strengths, Opportunities, Challenges and Weaknesses

Strengths and opportunities:

Willingness of political authorities to prioritize the development of the agricultural sector, by allocating

15% of the national budget to this sector, and even considering increasing this rate;

Effective furtherance of implementation of the Peace Agreement, in particular with the Accelerated

Development Programme for the Northern Regions (PDA/RN), and the Disarmament, Demobilization

and Reintegration (DDR) process for Armed Groups;

Stable macroeconomic framework with growth of around 5% per year since 2013;

Considerable arable land (43.7 million hectares of agricultural land, of which only 7% is cultivated, or

93% of agricultural land not yet cultivated), and considerable water wealth (2 major rivers flow through

the country: the Niger River and the Senegal River; existence of a significant potential for irrigation of

2.2 million hectares, groundwater resources estimated at 2,720 billion m³);

Possible demographic dividend (65% of the population is young and under 25 years old).

Challenges and Weaknesses:

Poverty and unemployment levels are still very high, especially in rural areas and among youth;

Weak capacity to mobilize domestic resources;

Weak private sector dynamism due to the lack of major business climate reforms;

Insufficient basic infrastructure with a negative impact on the competitiveness of the economy;

Lack of inclusiveness of economic growth;

Dependence of the economy on two export products: gold (nearly 70% of export earnings), and cotton

(nearly 14% of export earnings);

Insufficiently diversified economy, particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices and

climate change;

Increase in gender-based violence (GBV), especially with the political and security crisis that the

country has experienced;

Landlocked countries due to an unfavourable geographical location, with no access to the sea and a

lack of competitiveness in regional transport;

Increased perception of corruption as one of the greatest obstacles to foreign investment and economic

development in the country.

10

IV.3 Results Achieved by the CSP at Mid-Term

41. Regarding Pillar 1, the original CSP had 8 outcomes and 8 outputs. At the end of 2018,

4 outcomes and 4 outputs were achieved3. With respect to Pillar 2, the original CSP had 7

outcomes and 13 outputs. At the end of 2018, 5 outcomes and 9 outputs were achieved4 (see

Table A.6 in Annex 10).

IV.3.1 Pillar 1 – Enhancing Governance for Inclusive Growth

42. In terms of enhancement of economic and financial governance. For High 5

"Integrate Africa", all the six WAEMU public financial management guidelines have been

transposed, which has allowed for the use of the programme budget by all ministries. For the

procurement method, the review of procurement instruments, including the process of adopting

a new public procurement code, is under way. However, the country has made amendments to

Decree No. 2015-0604/P-RM of 25 September 2015 on the Public Procurement Code and

Decree No. 2016-0920/P-RM of 6 December 2016 on the Code of Delegations of Public

Services. These efforts made it possible to have a percentage of 93,5% for public contracts

awarded by open tender in 2017, which is below the target percentage of 95%. These results

should help improve financial governance, and thus contribute to reducing fragility.

43. In terms of private sector development and job creation particularly for young

people and women. The 2016-2018 Strategic and Operational Reform Action Plan is available,

but was delayed in its implementation, leading to a 2-point decline of Mali in the world ranking

of reforming countries. Indeed, Mali was ranked 143rd reforming country in 2018, against 141st

in 2017. However, Mali’s ranking is up positively and significantly compared to 2014, since

the country moved from 155th reforming country in 2014 to 145th country in 2019. Legislation

on surveys and a real computerisation of Malian surveys are in progress. The reform of the

lands and surveys legal framework has therefore not yet been adopted, contrary to the expected

results. It is important that these results are all achieved for a better development of the private

sector that can play a crucial role in reducing poverty, and thus fragility. For High 5

"Industrialise Africa", 52 SMEs/SMIs were created, in line with the expected results. For High

5 "Improve the quality of life for the people of Africa", 5,095 new jobs were created,

particularly for young people and women.

IV.3.2 Pillar 2 – Infrastructure Development toSupport Economic Recovery

44. In the area of road infrastructure development to improve the movement of goods

and persons. For High 5 "Integrate Africa", work on the Zantiébougou-Kolondiéba-Côte

d'Ivoire border road has been executed at 37%. Since this road is under construction, there is

therefore still no impact on the level of regional trade, contrary to the expected results. As

concerns High 5 "Improve the quality of life for the people of Africa", the Bank’s intervention,

through the PRESAN-KL and PRESA-DCI projects and the construction of the Zantiébougou-

Côte d'Ivoire road, has helped to create 366,210 jobs (at least 620,000 jobs were planned),

87.5% of which are held by young people (66.27% of jobs held by young people were planned);

and to have 94.5% of employees of companies that are Malian (at least 90% were planned).

Development work on the Douentza-Gao road has not yet started, contrary to what was

expected.

45. In the area of development of drinking water supply and sanitation

infrastructure. For High 5 "Improve the quality of life for the people of Africa", the Bamako

Sanitation Project was approved in January 2017, but was cancelled in 2019 for persistent non-

fulfillment by Government of the conditions precedent to first disbursement. Work on the

3 Among the 8 outcomes and 8 outputs planned in the original CSP, 2 outcomes and 2 outputs were not achieved. The information for 2

outcomes and the remaining 2 outputs was not yet available at the time of the mid-term review. 4 Among the 7 outcomes and 13 outputs planned in the original CSP, 1 outcome and 2 outputs were not achieved. The information for 1

outcome and 1 output was not yet available at the time of the mid-term review, and 1 output was cancelled during this mid-term review.

11

Bamako DWS from Kabala is executed at 50%. The Bank’s interventions, through the

PRESAN-KL and PRESA-DCI projects, have improved the rate of access to drinking water

and sanitation to 57% for the regions of Gao, Koulikoro and Segou (an access rate of 49% was

planned), ensured the drilling of 140 boreholes and enabled 445,980 people to have access to

drinking water.

46. In the area of development of energy infrastructure to increase access and at

lower cost. For High 5 "Light up and power Africa", the national energy policy and the national

renewable energy development strategy papers are available, in line with the expected results.

47. In the area of agriculture and food security. The Bank’s interventions have set up

95 modern infrastructure (14 markets, 12 classrooms, 25 storage warehouses, 5 community

health centres, 29 multi-purpose centres, 10 literacy centres). For High 5 "Feed Africa", the

Bank’s interventions have helped increase irrigation schemes by 10,586 ha, cereal production

by 19,140 tonnes of rice, vegetable production by 20,300 tonnes of market gardening, as well

as raise the cereal yield level by 11,250 kg/ha and the vegetable yield by 148,000 kg/ha.

48. The lack of basic infrastructure in Mali has a negative impact on the competitiveness

of the economy; hence the importance of these results, which help to improve competitiveness,

create more wealth and, thus, reduce fragility. Similarly, since agriculture absorbs the largest

part of the country’s labour force, it is crucial to achieve even better results in the sector so that

it contributes to further reducing fragility.

IV.4 Other Results of the Strategy

49. Knowledge Products. As part of the 2015-2019 CSP, the Bank had planned three

economic and sector works, focusing respectively on: (i) the study on the private sector profile;

(ii) the study to improve road safety in Bamako District; and (iii) the study on vocational

training and informal jobs. Most of the results expected in the area of knowledge products were

not achieved because, out of the three envisaged studies, only the study on transport, focusing

on "the improvement of road safety in Bamako District", was carried out in July 2017.

However, three studies, not planned in the 2015-2019 CSP, are under way: (i) study of the

integrated development and climate resilience project in the Delta 2 plains; (ii) study of the

Malian agriculture transformation and youth employment project; and (iii) study of the gender

profile in Mali.

50. Fragility factors. The expected results have been achieved. The Bank has effectively

mobilised the resources of Pillar III of the TSF to help Mali for a better territorial planning of

investments through the establishment of the national spatial planning system, with a strong

component of national capacity building. The Bank has also incorporated fragility factors in

evaluating the results of the country strategy and, especially, in defining the reforms and

corrective measures of the strategy. The Bank’s operations in Mali have taken into account

fragility concerns. First, AfDB projects on the Sahelian Strip are part of the Alliance for the

Sahel programme. For example, the Bank established the Socio-Economic Reintegration

Support Project for the Population of Northern Mali to the tune of UA 10 million to facilitate

the reintegration of the fragile population living in the conflict zone. The Bank’s Mali office

recommends additional Pillar III resources and readily available financing instruments for

investments under the Alliance for the Sahel such as the KONNA project. Second, under Pillar

III of the TSF, the Bank set up the National Regional Planning Scheme for UA 1 million, to

enable regional planning to identify and address the pockets of fragility. In addition, the Bank

implemented the Trans-Saharan Highway (RTS2) project between Bourem and Kidal in the

north of the country (conflict zone) for UA 33.75 million.

12

This project, which is christened "national unity road" by Government, is strategic and capital

for the political stability of Mali and the West African sub-region. Finally, the Bank also

allocated UA 1 million to Mali, under Pillar III of the TSF, to: (i) support the activities of the

General Census of Economic Units; (ii) prepare Mali’s gender profile; and (iii) build the

capacity of institutions.

51. In the area of gender. The last study carried out by the Bank on the gender profile in

Mali dates back to December 2011, and therefore does not cover the period of implementation

of the 2015-2019 CSP. But, the AfDB plans to carry out a study on the gender profile in Mali

for 2019.

52. In the area of food security. The indicator "improved food and nutrition security",

defined in the 2015-2019 CSP, is included at the "Impact" level in agricultural projects, and so

will be measured from the end of these 2019-2020 projects. The indicator "necessary food and

nutrition security stock available", defined in the 2015-2019 CSP, is not included in the logical

frameworks of agricultural projects. But, it could be approximated by the cumulative aggregate

production of cereals from agricultural projects. Thus, it appears that the necessary food and

nutrition security stock available in Mali in 2018, is 19,140 tonnes of cereals.

IV.5 AfDB Contribution to Achievement of the High 5s

IV.6 Mise en œuvre de la Déclaration de Paris, et engagements de Busan

IV.6 Implementation of the Paris Declaration and the Busan Commitments

53. The Bank is signatory to the Paris Declaration and Busan Commitments. As such,

the Bank’s interventions in Mali are aligned with the national priorities defined by Government.

The AfDB also coordinates its interventions with the other development partners. Indeed, most

stakeholders participated in the preparation of the CSP, including Government, civil society

organisations and the private sector. Government approved the CSP, and the two CSP priority

areas were identified jointly with Government.

V. COUNTRY PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE REVIEW

V.1 Bank Group’s Active Portfolio

54. Given that the last review of the Bank’s portfolio in Mali took place in April 2016, this

review therefore concerns the period April 2016 - December 2018. As at 15 December 2018,

the Bank’s overall portfolio in Mali has 24 operations for a total amount of UA 451.25 million,

corresponding to USD 624.18 million or CFAF 360.45 billion. The public sector comprises 20

projects, two of which have not yet fulfilled the conditions precedent to the first disbursement:

Light up and power Africa

The national energy policy and the national renewable energy

development strategy papers are available, in line with the expected results, but are waiting for the Ordinance amending

the old law.

Integrate Africa - All the six WAEMU public financial management guidelines have been transposed, which has allowed for the use of the programme

budget by all ministries.

- Work on the Zantiébougou-Kolondiéba-Côte d'Ivoire border road effectively started in March 2017, and is executed at 37%.

Since this road is under construction, there is still no impact on

the level of regional trade.

Feed Africa

- Increased irrigation schemes of 10,586 ha.

- Increased cereal production of 19,140 tonnes of rice, and

vegetable production of 20,300 tonnes of market gardening. - Increased cereal yield of 11,250 kg/ha, and vegetable yield of

148,000 kg/ha.

Industrialise Africa

- SMEs/SMIs have been created. - A total of 52 SMEs/SMIs were created.

Improve the quality of life for the people of Africa - The total number of jobs created, particularly for young people and women, is 5,095.

- 366,210 direct jobs created, with 87.5% of them occupied by young people, and 50% by women. - Rate of access to drinking water and sanitation improved by 57% in the regions of Gao, Koulikoro and Segou.

- 140 boreholes drilled.

- 445,980 people have access to drinking water.

13

the 225-kilovolt multinational electricity interconnection project between Mali and Guinea

approved on 13 December 2017 for UA 32.4 million; and the Project for the Economic

Empowerment of Women in the Shea Subsector approved on 3 December 2018 for UA 5

million. One public sector project was cancelled: the Bamako City Sanitation Project approved

on 11 January 2017 for UA 30 million, for persistent failure to meet the conditions. The

disbursement rate of active public sector portfolio is 39.07% for 17 operations.

55. The agriculture sector, with 7 operations, accounts for 47% of the Bank’s financing in

Mali, followed by infrastructure with 22% for 1 project, and the water and sanitation sector

with 15% for 2 projects. The other sectors, namely energy, governance and social development,

account for 7%, 6% and 3%, respectively. (see Figure 1 above).

56. The portfolio contributes to the Bank’s 5 priorities (High 5s), notably with 33% of the

portfolio for "Feed Africa", 30% for "Integrate Africa", 21% for "Improve the quality of life for

the people of Africa", 11% for "Light up and power Africa", and 5% for "Industrialise Africa".

(see Figure 2 below).

57. The portfolio comprises 3 regional operations: (i) the construction of a paved road to

facilitate transport between Mali and San Pedro, Côte d’Ivoire’s second port; (ii) the

programme to build resilience to food and nutrition insecurity in the Sahel region; and (iii) the

Guinea-Mali electricity interconnection project.

58. The private sector portfolio comprises 4 operations: the line of credit to Mali Solidarity

Bank (BMS) for UA 4.97 million; the line of credit for trade financing to Sahel-Saharan Bank

for Investment and Trade (BSIC) for UA 6.72 million; the line of credit to Mali Development

Bank for UA 24.97 million; and the Moulin Moderne du Mali Project for UA 22 million. The

overall private sector disbursement rate is 31,83%.

Figure 1: Breakdown of Active Portfolio by Sector Figure 2: Breakdown of Portfolio by High 5

V.2 Portfolio Monitoring and Evaluation

59. The general portfolio performance rating is 2.49 on a scale of 1 to 4. It is 2.50 for

physical performance and 2.48 for achievement of developmental outcomes. Detailed analysis

of specific ratings reveal that four performance indicators received the lowest ratings. These are

submission of audit reports, financial management, procurement and disbursements. This

unsatisfactory performance is mainly due to the late establishment of project management

teams. This weakness will be corrected by the obligation to establish the project management

team before presentation of the project to the Board.

V.3 Implementation Status of the 2016 PPIP

60. The four recommendations of the 2016 Portfolio Performance Improvement Plan were

fairly well followed. Only one recommendation was fully satisfied, or 25% of the proposed

measures; two recommendations, or 50% of the measures, made progress and one

recommendation, or 25% of the proposed measures, was not satisfied. In particular, it concerns

Agriculture

47%

Infrastructure

22%

Water and

Sanitation

15%

Energy

7%

Social

development

3%

Governance

6%

Feed

Africa

33%

Integrate

Africa

30%

Improve the

quality of life

for the people of Africa

21%

Light up

and power

Africa 11%

Industrialise Africa

5%

14

the objective of starting the implementation of all operations within the six months of their

approval. Currently, the portfolio has two operations targeted for cancellation: these are the

PRESAN-KL and PRESA-DCI projects suspended for ineligible expenditure, and one

operation cancelled which is the Bamako City Sanitation Project, the conditions precedent to

the first disbursement of which have not been fulfilled, more than twelve months after approval.

61. The elements gathered during the preliminary analysis on the implementation of the

2016 PPIP are presented below, in the form of traffic lights (green, orange and red).

62. The main factors that undermine portfolio quality and performance are as follows:

(i) A start-up delay that currently affects four operations: the start-up delay is 8 to

12 months for various reasons related to quality at entry. Efforts are being made

to put the 4 operations back on track and facilitate their implementation (see

table A.8 in the Annex 12).

(ii) The issue of insecurity, which impacts negatively on the implementation of

operations in northern and central Mali, due to difficulties in accessing these

conflict zones. The Malian government has pledged to intensify the

implementation of the peace agreement and continue the reforms undertaken at

the level of defense and the security of the national territory, including the G5

initiative.

(iii) The capacity of sectoral authorities, which are unsufficient to formulate, prepare

and implement strategic projects.

63. The country dialogue, focusing specifically on the greater ownership of the portfolio

by the Malian side, continues through regular meetings with ministries that manage AfDB-

financed projects in Mali. Furthermore, a bi-monthly meeting is organised by the Public Debt

Department to identify the bottlenecks encountered in project implementation and propose

solutions.

V.4 Performance of Bank Group in Mali

64. Since the last portfolio review, the Bank has intensified its support for project

implementation through the organisation of bi-monthly meetings with the PIUs of the General

Directorate of Public Debt, increased monitoring missions on the ground, and prior review of

documents to be submitted for AfDB approval. The Bank provided dynamic support to the

project management units in terms of procurement; and organised four training seminars,

including two fiduciary clinics for PIUs, a training on procurement planning and the

Popularise and ensure compliance with Presidential Directive 02/2015 on the design, implementation and cancellation of sovereign

operations.

No cancelled operation despite the start-up delays of > 12 months

/Some operations have teams before approval

Accelerate the execution of projects by one-off implementation and respecting the quality of

results.

Annual disbursement rate: remains at 16% despite the targets of 18% (June 17) and then

22% (June 18).

Take into account the increasing financial constraints of the Malian government in

finalising the project financing plan.

New operations with a counterpart contribution of < 10%;

Financing of the preparation of new projects

Ensure an irreproachable closing at the fiduciary level and promoting the sustainability of project

achievements.

Operations closing with a one-off completion report and a takeover of achievements by the

State.

15

establishment of the Procurement Plan, and a training workshop, open to PIUs, in the Bank’s

procurement rules and procedures. Most of the results planned in terms of managing the Bank’s

portfolio have been achieved, in view of the support described above and the effort made to

process the files received from the PIUs within clearly defined timeframes.

V.5 Country Performance Outcomes Based on the Questionnaire on Portfolio

Quality

65. Despite the insecurity context that exacerbates the country’s fragility, Government has

been up to the task in the identification, preparation, and evaluation of projects proposed to the

Bank. The performance of Government and PIUs in project management showed a clear

improvement. However, major irregularities have been identified in the financial management

of two projects (PRESSAN-KL and PRESA-DCI) and the use of counterpart contribution

resources, whose payment is significantly delayed. These irregularities led to the cessation of

disbursements for these projects.

66. The portfolio dialogue questionnaire and discussions with executing agencies

unanimously highlighted constraints related to design, management (weakness of PIUs in

procurement and fiduciary management), inadequate financing of the counterpart contribution

and institutional changes at the level of Government. The Bank’s response time to requests for

non-objection and the frequent change in Task Managers have also been highlighted as

contributing to the difficulties encountered in project implementation. However, there is a

gradual improvement in project management, thanks to the multiple support provided by the

country office through on-the-job training and close monitoring of files.

V.6 Conclusions of Meetings with Stakeholders

67. On Government performance: The main areas of concern to government are mainly

the weakness of certain structures involved in project implementation. Project management by

executing agencies is characterised by some multifaceted inertia: the preparation of documents

and the implementation of the recommendations of action plans are generally unsatisfactory,

and the application of AfDB rules and procedures on procurement, use of working capital and

disbursement, suffers from many weaknesses. We also note weak monitoring of project

implementation by supervisory ministries, especially for PRESSAN-KL and PRESA-DCI.

68. On AfDB performance: The delay in processing files is a strong criticism of the Bank

by the executing agencies. This constraint should be mitigated with the new Delegation of

Authority Matrix, which gives more responsibility to field offices.

69. In conclusion, the performance of the Bank’s national public portfolio remains

good with a score of 2.49 on a scale of 4, an improvement compared to September 2016, when

it was 2.09. Efforts should be continued to sustain this performance and improve it.

70. Interim recommendations on portfolio issues. Government must: (i) strengthen the

programming of counterpart funds; (ii) strengthen the monitoring of project implementation by

establishing performance contracts with PIU members; (iii) reduce the delay in the procurement

and disbursement request preparation process. The Bank must: (i) ensure project quality at

entry; (ii) organise training for its members on the Bank’s procedures for procurement,

disbursement and fiduciary risk management; (iii) assess key staff of PIUs on the basis of

performance contracts signed at project start-up; (iv) reduce the processing time of files

submitted by Government for non-objection.

16

V.7 Revised PPIP

71. The PPIP targets institutional issues related to the preparation of future projects. The

recommendations apply to project quality at entry, the care to be taken in the establishment of

the PIUs and their composition, and the payment of the counterpart contribution. Annex 12

presents the revised 2018 PPIP.

VI. LESSONS LEARNT AT MID-TERM

VI.1 Lessons for the Bank Group

72. At the strategic level, the main lesson, during the mid-term review, is that the Bank

has addressed Mali’s most pressing development issues and challenges in the right direction.

CSP implementation was successful, both in terms of approval and the results achieved. Thus,

the Bank should stay the course during the remaining CSP period. But, since the approval of

Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP, the country’s development context has not changed (country in

transition still classified as fragile since 2015), but development issues and challenges have

partly changed. Indeed, two different country development policy frameworks overlapped

during the 2015-2019 CSP period, notably: (i) the 2012-2017 GPRSF, and (ii) the 2016-2018

CREDD, which was adopted to better reflect the crisis (and therefore the fragility) in which the

country finds itself. Thus, the country’s development priorities have evolved, as Government

has made the transformation of agriculture and the development of value chains a priority.

73. With regard to the private sector development, the Bank will have to play a catalytic

role through the optimal use of the full range of instruments and services available at the AfDB

window. The Bank should increase its visibility with Malian enterprises to better inform them

about the financial products and services it offers.

74. The Bank should also continue to look for opportunities for greater flexibility and

adaptability in Mali. Indeed, the security situation does not allow development actors, including

the Bank, to operate in a conventional manner. This specific situation inevitably has an impact

on Bank portfolio quality, particularly because of the difficulties of accessing certain areas of

the territory. The specificity of the situation and the approach that the Bank must take in this

type of context of fragility should be continuously reinvented, especially in the choice and

configuration of operations. This is the condition for a high impact of operations and a better

performance of the portfolio.

VI.2 Lessons for Government

75. The willingness of the authorities to develop promising sectors, public-private

partnerships and SMEs, offer increased opportunities to support the private sector. During the

remaining CSP period, the exploitation of these opportunities will have to be a priority.

Government needs to do more to address the following issues: the fragility of the security

situation; the mobilisation of counterpart funds; delays in the transfer of resources and skills to

local authorities; difficulties in better integrating the demographic challenge into public

policies; and low levels of achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Governance

also remains a huge challenge for Government.

VI.3 Lessons for Other Development Partners.

76. Employment impact results can only be obtained by revitalising the synergy of

interventions of all technical and financial partners in private sector development, in particular:

the revitalisation of the "private sector development" partners’ theme group; strengthening the

dialogue with Government on the business environment (given the slow pace of reform seen in

the 2018 and 2019 Doing Business report); and, especially, the issue of long-term resources for

the financing of SMEs/SMIs in Mali.

17

VII. BANK’S STRATEGY FOR THE REMAINING CSP PERIOD

VII.1 Relevance of the Pillars of the Strategy

77. The two initial pillars of Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP were adequate to address the country’s

development challenges in that, as previously demonstrated, governance issues are a

development issue, since corruption has been identified as one of the most major obstacles to

the country’s economic development. In addition, as demonstrated in the previous sections, the

country suffers from a considerable lack of basic infrastructure in several sectors.

78. Due to the change in Mali’s development policy framework, through the adoption in

2016 of the 2016-2018 CREDD as the new policy framework, replacing the 2012-2017 CSCRP,

during the implementation of the 2015-2019 CSP, two adjustments were validated in

consultations with stakeholders, during this mid-term review, notably: (i) Government’s stated

priority towards agricultural development, and (ii) the need to further focus on strengthening

Mali’s resilience, building on the 2018 Diagnosis of Fragility Factors.

79. The country’s development challenges have changed. Since the country is in a crisis

context, the fight against fragility appears to be a major priority. As indicated below, the Bank’s

assessment, through the 2016 Country Resilience and Fragility Assessment (CRFA), shows

strong pressures negatively affecting the agricultural sector. Thus, it is proposed that Pillar 1,

which focuses on improvement of governance for inclusive growth, remains unchanged for the

remaining period of the 2015-2019 CSP, and that Pillar 2, which focuses on infrastructure

development to support economic recovery, remains unchanged, but special emphasis should

be laid on transformation of agriculture and development of value chains. Consequently, for the

remaining 2015-2019 CSP period, the Bank will continue its direct support for the promotion

of governance (Pillar 1) and infrastructure development (Pillar 2).

80. The importance of paying particular attention to the transformation of agriculture and

development of value chains is explained by several reasons. First, the Malian Government has

shown a strong commitment to prioritise the agricultural sector, by devoting 15% of the

country’s budget to this sector in 2018. In 2019, an increase of 3.43% is planned in the funds

allocated to agriculture. Second, this Government vision is aligned with 3 of the Bank’s High

5s: "Feed Africa", "Industrialise Africa" and "Improve the quality of life for the people of

Africa". Lastly, the results of the 2016 CRFA support the choice of agriculture as an important

element of Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP5. The results show, indeed, that natural disasters, water

scarcity, malnutrition and undernourishment, and volatile food prices, generate strong pressures

that may have a negative impact on the country’s food security. Therefore, the development of

the agricultural sector in Mali is an appropriate response to the concerns highlighted by the

Bank’s CRFA assessment. Similarly, the results of the 2016 CRFA assessment show Mali’s

weak capacity to set up transport, energy, drinking water and sanitation infrastructure, justifying

their importance in the 2015-2019 CSP.

VII.2 Bank’s Assistance Strategy for the Remaining CSP Period

81. For the reasons explained above, during the remaining CSP period, Pillars 1 and 2

remain unchanged. However, the Bank’s support will be fine-tuned and more nuanced to better

address, in a more targeted manner, the emerging challenges of the country, as well as to fully

align the Bank’s support with its new priorities and strategies. The Bank’s assistance strategy,

under each pillar, is presented below.

82. Pillar 1 of the CSP. The Bank’s assistance strategy under Pillar 1 "Enhancing

governance for inclusive growth" will continue to focus on economic and financial governance,

as well as private sector development and job creation particularly for young people and

5 The Bank’s 2018 CRFA assessment has not yet ended. Data are not yet available.

18

women. The Bank’s support under this Pillar 1 remains aligned with CREDD, the Ten-Year

Strategy and the High 5s.

83. Pillar 2 of the CSP. The Bank’s assistance strategy, under Pillar 2 "Infrastructure

development to support economic recovery", will continue to focus on roads and energy, but

will also aim at agricultural development. The Bank’s support in these sectors will be in line

with CREDD’s operational priorities for infrastructure development and the agricultural sector,

and the Bank’s High 5s.

VII.3 Indicative Assistance Programme for the Remaining CSP Period

84. Annex 13 provides the Bank’s public sector indicative assistance programme for Mali

for the remaining CSP period. This assistance programme is based on the 2019 country

allocation under ADF-14 (PBA and TSF) and on resources from the cancellation of the Bamako

City Sanitation Project. To these available resources can be added those of the private sector

window, Pillar III of the TSF, the package for regional operations and other trust funds

VII.4 Non-lending Activities

85. The non-lending programme of activities over the remaining CSP period consists in

carrying out a study on the gender profile in Mali.

VII.5 Areas of Dialogue with the Country

86. For the remaining CSP period, the Bank will continue dialogue with Mali on its areas

of intervention in the country, notably governance, infrastructure development, the

transformation of agriculture and the development of value chains. In addition, the Bank will

continue dialogue with the country on: (i) the management and mitigation of fragility factors;

(ii) the issue of inclusive growth; (iii) private sector development; (iv) green growth; (v)

promoting gender in the implementation of national policies; and (vi) the improvement of

country portfolio performance.

VII.6 Monitoring and Evaluation of the Bank Group’s Assistance

87. The CSP includes a results framework with strategic objectives, results indicators and

target objectives. This results-based framework has not been modified. To assess the impact of

its assistance, the Bank uses the indicators retained in this CSP results and monitoring

framework, as well as the indicators retained in the logical frameworks of various sectoral

projects. Furthermore, the results of annual portfolio performance reviews and project

completion reports (PCR) will be useful sources in monitoring progress towards the

achievement of CSP objectives.

VII.3 Risks and Mitigation Measures

Table 7 : Risks and Mitigation Measures Risks Mitigation Measures

Given the difficult context, there are risks that the

authorities’ commitment to the reform

programme will decline for the remaining period.

The Bank will continue, in coordination with

TFPs, to focus on reforms in all dimensions of its

dialogue.

Risk related to the materialisation of the

commitment of the countries of the region to

advance the agenda of the Agreement for Peace

and Reconciliation.

The willingness of stakeholders must be

sufficiently reflected in the effective

implementation of the agreements and decisions.

19

VIII. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

88. As part of the implementation of Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP, two reference frameworks

overlapped: the 2012-2017 CSCRP and the 2016-2018 CREDD.

89. The mid-term review of Mali’s CSP shows that most of the expected results have been

achieved. For the remaining period, CREDD ended in December 2018, and a new strategy

(2019-2023 CREDD) will be available in April 2019. The mid-term review has concluded that

the two initial Pillars of the CSP remain unchanged, but that Pillar 2 will nevertheless pay

particular attention to the transformation of agriculture and the development of value chains.

90. The country’s political calendar in a context of fragility as well as staff movements

within the Bank have had an impact on the timing of this mid-term review. In spite of this, the

completion report is being prepared for submission to CODE for review in the third quarter of

2019. This report will be followed by the preparation of the Bank’s next intervention strategy

in Mali for the period 2020-2024.

91. CODE members are invited to take note of this mid-term review of Mali’s 2015-2019

CSP.

Annex 1: Table A.1: Mali’s Foreign Debt Sustainability Indicators, 2018–2038 (%)

source: imf country report no.18/141.

Threshold Projections

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2038

VA

ratio of

debt on

GDP 40 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 20

Exports 150 66 71 72 74 76 78 81 85 90 93 96 130

Revenue 250 78 80 78 77 76 74 73 74 74 76 78 86

Debt

service

ratio on

Exports 20 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 8

Revenue 20 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 6

Annex 2 : Figure A.1: Trend of the Incidence of Poverty in Mali by Place of Residence, 2001-

2017 (%)

Sources: EMEP 2001, ELIM 2006, MICS/ELIM 2009, EMOP-2011, EMOP-2014, EMOP-2015, EMOP-2016,

2017 CREDD (2016 – 2018) Report

17,6

7,9 9,6 10,7 11,1 11,27,4

4,7

28,634,1 32

47,7 46,6 47,7

36,932,9

66,8

57,8

51,2 51,1 52,8 53,1 55,2 53,655,6

47,643,7 45,6 46,9 47,2 46,8 44,9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001 2006 2009 2011 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bamako Autres villes Rural Ensemble

- Bamako - Other cities - Rural - Total

Annex 3 : Table A.2 : Mali’s Classified, Developed and Undeveloped Road Network, 2018

SUBJECT

ROAD CATEGORIES

Paved

Roads

Modern

Earth

Roads

Improved

Tracks

Total

Developed

Seasonal

Tracks

Network

Total

Km Km Km Km % Km % Km

Roads of

national interest 6,363 1,737 1,306 9,406 67% 4,696 33% 14,102

Roads of

regional interest 326 304 2,282 2,912 41% 4,140 59% 7,052

Roads of local

interest 74 0 8,896 8,970 31% 19,959 69% 28,929

Roads of

municipal

interest

393 0 0 393 1% 38,548 99% 38,941

TOTAL

NETWORK

7,156 2,041 12,484 21,681 24% 67,343 76% 89,024

33% 9% 58% 100%

Source: Road Data Service, National Directorate of Roads of Mali

Annex 4: Table A.3 : State of the Developed Road Network in Mali

Subject Total Length

State

Good Passable Bad

Km % Km % Km % Km %

Paved roads 7,156 100% 3,116 44% 2,392 33% 1,648 23%

Modern earth roads 2,041 100% 230 11% 860 42% 951 47%

Improved tracks 12,484 100% 0 0% 3,601 29% 8,883 71%

Total developed

network 21,681 100% 3,347 15% 6,853 32% 11,482 53%

Source: Road Data Service, National Directorate of Roads of Mali

Annex 5: Potential of the Agricultural Sector in Mali

Mali has enormous potential and untapped assets in agriculture:

A great agro-ecological diversity reflected in that of agricultural production

systems, ranging from cotton-based systems in the south to the oasis system in

the far north, through dry cereal-based systems and pastoral systems (semi-

sedentary or transhumant).

A considerable potential for agricultural land: Out of the 43.7 million

hectares available for agriculture and livestock, only 3.2 million hectares (or 7%)

are cultivated, less than 300,000 hectares of which benefit from other sources

than rainwater. Land suitable for irrigation, subject to development, has an

estimated potential of 2.2 million hectares.

Significant water resources: All watersheds of rivers offer an irrigable potential

of over 2.2 million hectares. The Inner Niger Delta extends over more than

30,000 km² and is one of the great ecological riches of the country, and even of

West Africa. Groundwater resources are estimated at 2,720 billion m³ with a

recovery rate estimated at 66 billion m³/year.

A considerable potential for aquaculture with 5,500 sites covering 895,000

hectares inventoried, including 620,500 hectares of lowlands, ponds and plains;

the level of development of this potential remains very low. The potential for

fish production is over 200,000 tonnes per year.

A significant forestry potential: The forest area covers about 100 million

hectares, of which only 21 million (or 17% of the national territory) have real

production. The regeneration potential is estimated at 7 million tonnes per year.

Abundant and diversified animal resources: With pasture surface areas

estimated at more than 30 million hectares, Malian livestock is one of the largest

in the sub-region. It consists mainly of cattle with over 9 million head, sheep and

goats with over 25 million head animals, and nearly one million camels.

Traditional poultry, with a population of nearly 35 million, is a remarkable

source of proteins and income in rural areas. Modern breeding farms are found

in Bamako District and in the Koulikoro region. In terms of genetic diversity,

Mali has many indigenous breeds of cattle, sheep, goats and camels, which are

perfectly adapted to the environment.

A significant potential for the development of the agro-industrial subsector: Agricultural products are minimally processed before marketing. Indeed, the

manufacturing industry accounts for less than 5% of Malian GDP, despite efforts

made by authorities to improve the business environment and promote

investment. Therefore, the authorities want to focus on the structural

transformation of the Malian economy as the driver of its development. Thus,

the new 2019-2023 development strategic framework, based on a new long-term

development vision, the "Mali 2040 National Prospective Study", considers as

priority strategic thrust "inclusive growth and structural transformation of the

economy".

A young and predominantly agricultural population: Mali will have a

population of about 21.300 million inhabitants in 2020. Despite the real

problems that can be generated by this population growth, it is an advantage for

the development of an essentially urban internal market.

The emergence of agricultural professional organisations: The rural sector

has more than 15,000 agricultural organisations and a small proportion of

regional and national structured organisations.

Significant progress at the legal, regulatory and institutional level for

agricultural sector management, notably the adoption of the LOA and its

enabling instruments.

Annex 6 : 2018 Diagnosis of Fragility Factors in Mali

The results of the diagnosis reveal the following 5 categories of fragility factors:

Factor 1: Political, Security and Institutional Factors

The political situation is dominated by domestic policy challenges that have an impact on

institutions, security and external relations; namely (i) in general, the management of public

affairs under the governance of the normal functioning of the State and its institutions, in the

sovereign functions, including the control or mastery of corruption, according to the principles

of efficiency, transparency and accountability; (ii) the preparation and democratic management

of the July 2018 elections with multiple consequences, and whose outcome can be explosive if

they are not well managed; and, (iii) the management of northern issues, the implementation of

the Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation resulting from the Algiers Process and their

consequences on the security situation, by avoiding amalgams between Malo-Malian issues, on

the one hand; and international geopolitics, on the other hand.

Factor 2 : Economic and Financial Issues

The resilience of the country is growing in economic recovery. Economic growth has been

around 6% on average per year between 2013 and 2017. However, the sustainability and

inclusiveness of growth are not ensured: the industrial sector is still lagging behind; cotton

and gold are not integrated into value chains ; services are not part of the global value chain ;

and water control, energy and sanitation remain a concern. The result is a considerable financial

loss for the country, compounded by the difficulties of increased mobilisation of public

financial resources and foreign exchange savings from the current account balance. The country

has not been indebted for as much: the risk of debt distress is moderate. But food insecurity

continues to affect 15% of the population, on a sustainable basis. The livestock subsector is

both a source of inter-ethnic conflict and irrational currency consumption, while the

criminalisation of the economy through illegal trade and illicit trafficking in prohibited

products, is growing.

Factor 3 : Social Issues, Combating Poverty and Inequalities

Despite the high growth of the last four years, it has not been sufficient enough to be

inclusive and pro-poor, in order to catch up with the countries of its 1980 or 1990 cohort,

namely countries that had the same level of development. Paradoxically, growth promising

production regions are relatively also high poverty areas: Kayes, to a lesser extent, but

especially Mopti, Sikasso, Ségou and Koulikoro have an incidence of monetary poverty higher

than the national average (47%) and that of the northern regions. Multidimensional poverty.

which includes the level of accessibility and the quality of social services, affects 78% of the

population or 13 million inhabitants. Low access to education contributes 37.9% to

multidimensional poverty, compared with 22.4% for health and 39.7% for living conditions.

Poverty is rural and female. The strengthening of social coverage and access and the

improvement of the quality of basic social services (education, health, water, sanitation, rural

tracks, electricity and living environment) constitute a major challenge. But employment

remains the main stake. Unemployment and under-employment are generalising and affect

more than 40% of the population, with women and young people, in particular, being the

majority (50.2% of the population is female and more than 60% of young people are under 25).

The issue of gender equality is more worrying. Inequalities at the expense of women, lead to

deprivations of certain civil liberties and limit access to tools that enable them to overcome

poverty. Access to, but also and above all keeping girls in school remain a challenge, despite

the measures regularly announced by authorities to reverse the trend. Without education, many

women cannot support themselves and marry young. A significant proportion even become

mothers before their 18th birthday. On the other hand, it should be noted that the transition to

women’s empowerment in Mali remains too slow and limited in the face of strong resistance

and gender bias on the part of women themselves. The most effective method would be to

increase men’s understanding of the benefits of an egalitarian society such as family health,

child survival and increased income. This could include developing a more positive notion of

masculinity and integrating the role of men in promoting gender equality. In terms of

importance, social fragility, although it can be considered as the result of all other situations of

vulnerability, comes after political and security factors, followed by economic issues. The

environmental challenge is a constraint, an exogenous fact, just like some international regional

and geopolitical issues.

Factor 4 : Environmental Challenge

Environmental issues and the manifestations of climate change are not top priorities in

countries in great fragility, facing political, security, social, economic and financial

difficulties. Certain hazards (drought, floods followed by erosion, desert locust invasions) can

be considered as exogenous natural risks, independent of humans, even if men can be the cause

or repair them. Unable to provide sustainabe solutions to current issues, countries in fragile

situations are even less ready to find sustainable solutions to the environmental challenge, as is

the case of Mali, which is the 9th country most exposed to natural hazards, but the 49th least

prepared country to take mitigation and adaptation measures. According to the EMDAT

database in Belgium, the economic cost of natural hazards for Mali, is estimated at more than

USD 1.5 billion per year, or 20% of GDP.

Factor 5 : Regional and International Issues

Mali’s geographical position and the extent of it territory and the borders with seven

countries, which neither it nor the others can control, place it from the outset at the centre

of major issues of geopolitics and regional geostrategy. The Malo-Malian Tuareg question,

has taken regional and international proportions since 1990, and has increased since the return

of armed groups from Libya. Added to this is the process of internationalisation of terrorism

from the strategic alliance with various groups, including Boko Haram and AQIM. Illicit trade

in the Sahel Strip is accompanied by the deployment of force and violence for the control of the

road and networks of product trafficking (oil, gold, drugs, human beings, etc.). These

dimensions make the conflict in northern Mali a complex international situation, even if the G5

Sahel initiative is already multinational. These intense population movements are also

accompanied by public health risks through the spread of virus epidemics (AIDS, Ebola, Lassa,

Deng) as well as diseases (tuberculosis, meningitis and plague). To overcome these challenges,

the country will have to transform the current mode of governance in favour of greater

accountability of elites, dominant coalitions and the political class. The country will also benefit

from the process of regional integration and international cooperation, while protecting itself

from the negative effects of regionalisation and globalisation. In this context, the country

benefits from the support of the WTO and various technical and financial partners under the

Enhanced Integrated Framework for trade and cross-border trade facilitation.

Annex 7: 2014 Diagnosis of Fragility Factors in Mali

In 2014, five categories of fragility factors were diagnosed in Mali. However, this assessment was

further explained by the situation in the North:

(i) Political, institutional and security factors that derive from multiple rebellions dating back

several decades, themselves born of unsatisfied claims of ethnic groups and amplified by the Arab

Spring; Libyan in particular;

(ii) Structural weaknesses of economic and financial governance: insufficient mobilisation,

ineffective allocations and inefficient use of public resources, low attractiveness of private and

foreign investment, low diversification beyond cotton and gold, weak economic transformation,

and volatility in commodity prices;

(iii) Social factors of poverty and precariousness, resulting from the lack of mechanisms for the

distribution and redistribution of the fruits of growth, fuelling growing social and regional

inequalities with tensions at national and sub-regional level and the vulnerability of the population

to various risks of crime, trafficking and diseases, including the HIV/AIDS pandemic and other

virus pandemics (Ebola… ) ;

(iv) Natural, geographical and environmental factors, which have a direct impact on water

availability, production from agropastoral activities, food security and various migrations of the

population;

(v) Interactions between internal factors and external factors resulting from the power struggle

between the major economic powers for access to natural resources (land, cotton, gold, other

mines and oil) and the effects of globalisation, the spread of violence and insecurity (terrorism,

epidemics and the effects of climate change).

Annex 8: Table A.4: Interventions of Development Partners in Mali in 2016

Partner Total Portfolio Amount in Mali (CFAF billion)

Multilateral Partners

AfDB 473.5

ABEDA 44.0

World Bank 767.4

EIB 31.1

IDB 281.1

EBID 67.9

WADB 144.9

FAO 44.3

IFAD 30.4

IMF 38.7

UNFPA 12.8

FSD 24.8

WHO 28.0

UN Women 0.2

OPEC 39.8

WFP 279.6

UNDP 76.3

UNESCO 4.4

UNHCR 3.8

UNICEF 204.4

European Union 896.9

UNMAS 0.28

Bilateral Partners

Germany 350.3

Belgium 60.2

Canada 221.8

China 350

South Korea 13.4

Denmark 165.4

Spain 33.6

United States 884.3

France 256.8

Italy 8.3

Japan 43.3

Kuwait 31

Luxemburg 78.

Monaco 2.5

Norway 12.2

Netherlands 138.8

Sweden 105.3

Switzerland 92,3

Source: Data from the Medium-Term External Resource Framework (2018-2020 MTRF)

XI

Annex 9: Table A.5 : Sectors of Intervention of Development Partners in Mali in 2016

Partner Agric Tra ICT PFM Educ Water YWC Pop TPH Gov Secur Ener RTI STI LNR PS CC Dec Know Cul Hea Cash

AfDB X X X X X X X X X X

Germany X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Belgium X X X X X X X X

Canada X X X X X X X

Denmark X X X X X

European Union X X X X X X X X X X X

Spain X X X X X X X X X X

France X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

FAO X X

UN Women X X X X X X

UNICEF X X X X X

WHO X

UNFPA X X X

WFP X X

UNDP X X

UNHCR X X

UNMAS X

UNESCO X X X X X X

Sweden X X X X X X X X

Switzerland X X X X X X X

Monaco X X X X X X X

Netherlands X X X X X X X X X X X

Japan X X X X X X X

United States X X X X X X

Kuwait X X

FSD X

World Bank X X X X X X X X X X X X X

EIB X

IMF X

WADB X X X

EBID X X X

OPEC X X X X

Italy X X

IsDB X X X X X X

ABEDA X X X X

IFAD X X X

South Korea X X

Luxemburg X X X X X X X X X

China X X X X X

Norway X X

Source: Data from the Medium-Term External Resource Framework (2018-2020 MTRF)

Note: Sectors. Agric: Agriculture and food security; Tra: Trade; ICT: Information and communication technology; PFM: Public financial management; Educ: Education and training; Water: Water

and sanitation; YWC: Youth, women and childhood; Pop: Population; TPH: Town planning and housing; Gov: Governance, justice, rule of law and reforms; Secu: Security and peacebuilding;

Ener: Energy; RTI: Road and transport infrastructure; STI: Science, technology and innovation; LNR: Land and natural resources; PS: Private sector; CC: Climate change; Dec: Decentralisation;

Know: Knowledge; Cul: Culture; Hea: Health; Cash: Cash transfer.

XII

Annex 10: Table A.6 : Results-Based Framework of Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP

Strategic objectives

of the 2012-2017

CSCRP

Constraints for

the

achievement

of results

Expected outcomes

at the end of the

CSP period (2019)

Expected outputs at

the end of the CSP

period (2019)

Outcomes

expected at mid-

term (2017)

Outcomes

achieved at mid-

term (2018)

Outputs

expected at mid-

term (2017)

Outputs achieved at mid-

term (2018)

Pillar 1 - Enhancing governance for inclusive growth

Enhancing economic and financial governance

Institutional

development and

governance

Weakness of

economic and

financial

governance

All ministries use

the programme

budget

Effective

implementation of

the 6 WAEMU

Directives

The percentage

of ministries

using the

programme

budget

increased

All ministries

use the

programme

budget

Transposition of

the 6 WAEMU

public financial

management

guidelines

All the 6 WAEMU

public financial

management guidelines

directives were

transposed

Public procurement

system improved

Implementation of a

new public

procurement code

The percentage

of procurement

by open bidding

is 92% in 2014

to 95% in 2017

The percentage

of procurement

by open bidding

is 93.5% in

2017

Adoption of a

new public

procurement

code

The review of

procurement instruments,

including the process of

adopting a new public

procurement code, is

underway

Budget

transparency and

control improved

Implementation of

an improved budget

transparency and

control system

Budget

transparency

and control

improved

Information not

yet available at

the time of the

mid-term review

Setting up of an

improved

budget

transparency

and control

system

Information not yet

available at the time of

the mid-term review

Overall

deconcentration

rate of budget

appropriations is

30% in 2019

Budget

deconcentration

strengthened

Overall

deconcentration

rate of budget

apprropriations

increases from

16.5% in 2014

to 20% in 2017

Information not

yet available at

the time of the

mid-term review

Improved

budget

deconcentration

Information not yet

available at the time of

the mid-term review

XIII

Table A.6: Results-Based Framework of Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP (continued)

Strategic objectives

of the 2012-2017

CSCRP

Constraints for the

achievement of

results

Expected outcomes

at the end of the

CSP period (2019)

Expected outputs at

the end of the CSP

period (2019)

Outcomes

expected at mid-

term (2017)

Outcomes

achieved at mid-

term (2018)

Outputs

expected at mid-

term (2017)

Outputs achieved at

mid-term (2018)

Pillar 1 - Ehancing governance for inclusive growth (continued)

Private sector development and job creation particularly for young people and women

Institutional

development and

governance

Low private sector

development

Business

framework for

stimulating private

investment

improved

Business

framework

conducive to

private investment

available

Mali’s ranking

in the "Doing

Business" report

significantly up

compared to

2014, when the

country was

ranked 155th

Mali is ranked

the 141st

reforming

country in 2017

and

143rd in 2018

Implementation

of the 2015-

2017 Strategic

and Operational

Action Plan for

business

framework

reform

The 2015-2017

Strategic and

Operational Action

Plan for reform is

available and

implemented

Reform of the lands

and surveys legal

framework is

effective

Implementation of

the lands and

surveys legal

reform

Reform of the

lands and

surveys legal

framework

adopted

The reform of

the lands and

surveys legal

framework is

not yet adopted

Legislation on

lands and

surveys

available

Legislation on

surveys and a real

computerisation of

Malian surveys are

under way

Number of new

SMEs/SMIs

increased

Number of

SMEs/SMIs created

Number of new

SMEs/SMIs

increased

52 SMEs/SMIs

increased

Number of

SMEs/SMIs

created

52 SMEs/SMIs

created

Number of jobs

increased

Number of new

jobs created

Number of jobs,

particularly for

young people

and women

increased

5,095 jobs,

particularly for

young people

and women,

created

Number of new

jobs created,

particularly for

young people

and women

5,095 jobs,

particularly for

young people and

women, created

XIV

Table A.6 : Results-Based Framework of Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP (continued)

Strategic objectives

of the 2012-2017

CSCRP

Constraints for the

achievement of

results

Expected outcomes

at the end of the

CSP period (2019)

Expected outputs at

the end of the CSP

period (2019)

Outcomes

expected at mid-

term (2017)

Outcomes

achieved at mid-

term (2018)

Outputs

expected at mid-

term (2017)

Outputs achieved at

mid-term (2018)

Pillar 2 – Infrastructure development to support economic recovery

Road infrastructure development to improve the movement of goods and persons

Promotion of

accelerated,

sustainable and pro-

poor growth,

creating jobs and

income-generating

activities

Internal and

external isolation

and low density in

terms of modern

infrastructure

Zantiébougou-CI

border road

developed in Mali

140 km of the

Zantiébougou-

Konlondiéba-CI

road developed and

paved

Level of

regional trade

increased

The road is not

yet released. So

no effect yet on

the level of

regional trade

Zantiébougou-

Konlondiéba-

Côte d’Ivoire

road

development

works started

Work on the

Zantiébougou-Côte

road started

effectively in March

2017 and is 37%

completed.

Strengthening of

long-term bases for

development and

equitable access to

quality social

services

Douentza - Gao

road developed and

paved

1,192 km of the

Douentza – Gao

road developed and

paved

Creation of

direct and

indirect jobs,

particularly for

young people

366,210 direct

jobs in

man/days

At least 620,000

direct jobs in

man/days,

including

66.27% held by

young people

366,210 direct jobs in

man/days (87.5%

held by young people

for the Zantiébougou-

Côte d'Ivoire road)

At least 90% of

employees of

companies are

Malians.

94.5% of employees

are Malians

Work on the

Douentza - Gao

road started

The work has not yet

started

XV

Table A.6 : Results-Based Framework of Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP (continued)

Strategic objectives

of the 2012-2017

CSCRP

Constraints for the

achievement of

results

Expected outcomes

at the end of the

CSP period (2019)

Expected outputs at

the end of the CSP

period (2019)

Outcomes

expected at mid-

term (2017)

Outcomes

achieved at mid-

term (2018)

Outputs expected

at mid-term

(2017)

Outputs achieved at

mid-term (2018)

Pillar 2 – Infrastructure development to support economic recovery (continued)

Development of drinking water supply and sanitation infrastructure

Strong population

growth

The Bamako City

Sanitation Project

started

The Bamako City

Sanitation Project

was cancelled

The Bamako

DWS from

Kabala started

The implementation

of the Bamako

DWS is 50%

complete

Rate of access to

drinking water and

sanitation

improved: (i) from

49 to 57% for the

regions of Gao,

Koulikoro and

Ségou; and (ii)

from 36 to 64% for

Bamako.

Access to drinking

water and sanitation

for the regions of

Gao, Koulikoro,

Ségou and Bamako

improved

Rate of access to

drinking water

and sanitation

improved

The rate of access

to drinking water

and sanitation is

improved from

49% to 57% for

the regions of

Gao, Koulikoro

and Ségou

Number of water

points constructed

140 boreholes

drilled

Number of

persons having

access to drinking

water from the

infrastructure

created

445,980 persons

in total have

access to drinking

water

357,000 m3/day of

water volume

produced in 2019

213,000m3/day of

water volume

produced in 2017

Reduction of cases

of diarrhea

and/or cholera

11,278 cases of

diarrhea in 2019

against 34,850

currently

XVI

Table A.6 : Results-Based Framework of Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP (continued)

Strategic objectives

of the 2012-2017

CSCRP

Constraints for the

achievement of

results

Expected outcomes

at the end of the

CSP period (2019)

Expected outputs at

the end of the CSP

period (2019)

Outcomes expected

at mid-term (2017)

Outcomes achieved

at mid-term (2018)

Outputs expected at

mid-term (2017)

Outputs achieved at

mid-term (2018)

Pillar 2 – Infrastructure development to support economic recovery (continued)

Development of energy infrastructure to increase access and lower costs

Promotion of

accelerated,

sustainable and pro-

poor growth,

creating jobs and

income-generating

activities

Low density in

terms of energy

infrastructure

Policy, legal,

regulatory and

institutional

framework

conducive to the

promotion of

renewable energy

investments

improved

Revised policy,

strategic, regulatory

and institutional

framework

available

National Energy

Policy and National

Renewable Energy

Development

Strategy revised

National Energy

Policy and National

Renewable Energy

Development

Strategy are revised

and are available

National Energy

Policy and National

Renewable Energy

Development

Strategy revised

and available

National Energy

Policy and National

Renewable Energy

Development

Strategy Papers are

available

Agriculture and food security

Promotion of

accelerated,

sustainable and pro-

poor growth,

creating jobs and

income-generating

activities

Low density in

terms of modern

infrastructure

Number of modern

infrastructure

created

95 modern

infrastructure

created

Significant

vulnerability of the

economy, climate

variability and

environmental

degradation

Irrigation schemes

increased

30% improved

poultry, 108 tonnes

of chicken

marketed

24 tonnes of farmed

fish

Agricultural

production

improved

Cereal production

increased by 19,140

tonnes of rice and

vegetable

production by

20,300 tonnes of

market gardening

Irrigation schemes

increased

Irrigation schemes

increased by 10,586

ha

Irrigation schemes

increased

7 tonnes/ha of

paddy rice, 40

tonnes/ha of tomato

and onion and 50

tonnes/ha of potato

Agricultural yield

improved

Cereal yield

increased by 11,250

kg/ha of paddy rice

and vegetable yield

by 148,000 kg/ha of

market gardening

Irrigation schemes

increased

Irrigation schemes

increased by 10,586

ha

XVII

Table A.6: Results-Based Framework of Mali’s 2015-2019 CSP (end)

Strategic objectives

of the 2012-2017

CSCRP

Constraints for the

achievement of

results

Expected outcomes

at the end of the

CSP period (2019)

Expected outputs at

the end of the CSP

period (2019)

Outcomes expected

at mid-term (2017)

Outcomes achieved

at mid-term (2018)

Outputs expected at

mid-term (2017)

Outputs achieved at

mid-term (2018)

Pillar 2 – Infrastructure development to support economic recovery (continued)

Agriculture and food security (continued)

Agricultural

production and

productivity

increased and

diversified

4750 ha

rehabilitated + 176

ha developed

Food and nutrition

security

strengthened

Sufficient food and

nutrition security

stock available

Food and nutrition

security improved

Improved food and

nutrition security is

integrated at the

"Impact" level in

agricultural

projects, and so will

be measured from

the end of these

projects in 2019

Sufficient food and

nutrition security

stock available

The necessary food

and nutrition security

stock in Mali in 2018

is 19,140 tonnes of

cereals

XVIII

Annex 11 : Table A.7: AfDB Overall Portfolio in Mali as at 15 December 2018

Project Name Approval Date Closing Date

Loan/Grant

Amount

Committed

(UA)

Cumulative Disbursement as at

15/12/2018

Disbursement Rate

(%)

AGRICULTURE

153,372,531 67,296,185 43.88%

1

IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME IN THE

BANÍ BASIN AND SÉLINGUE 27.05.2009 31.12.2018 44,000,000 38,098,534 86.59%

2

PROGRAMME TO BUILD RESILIENCE TO FOOD AND

NUTRITION INSECURITY IN THE SAHEL

15.10.2014 30.06.2020 36,390,000 2,996,604 8.23%

3

PROJECT FOR FOOD SECURITY CONSOLIDATION

THROUGH DEVELOPMENT OF IRRIGATION

FARMING

27.05.2009 31.12.2019 36,000,000 12,978,842 36.05%

4

KOULIKORO REGION FOOD AND NUTRITION

SECURITY ENHANCEMENT PROJECT

17.09.2014 31.12.2019 33,645,961 13,022,439 38.70%

5 CLIMDEV MALI METEO PROJECT 31.12.2019 782,705 47,375 6.05%

6

STUDY OF THE INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT AND

CLIMATE RESILIENCE OF POPULATIONS IN THE

DELTA 2 PLAINS (PDIR-PD2)

11.09.2017 31.03.2020 1,564,865 100,000 6.39%

7

PPF- MALIAN AGRICULTURE TRANSFORMATION AND

YOUTH EMPLOYMENT PROJECT 18.08.2017 31.12.2018 989,000 52,391 5.30%

7 INFRASTRUCTURE

70,770,000 19,919,480 28.15%

8

PROJECT FOR ROAD DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORT

FACILITATION BETWEEN MALI AND COTE D’IVOIRE 26.11.2015 30.06.2021 70,770,000 19,919,480.2 28.15%

8 WATER AND SANITATION

80,000,000 20,600,000 25.75%

9 BAMAKO DRINKING WATER SUPPLY PROJECT 09.10.2013 31.12.2018 50,000,000 20,600,000 41.20%

10 BAMAKO CITY SANITATION PROJECT 11.01.2017 31.12.2021 30,000,000 - 0.00%

10 ENERGY 53,344,410 529,057 0.99%

11

RENEWABLE ENERGY PROMOTION SUPPORT

PROJECT 22.10.2014 31.01.2019 965,860 400,000 41.41%

12

PROJECT TO DEVELOP MINI HYDROELECTRIC POWER

PLANTS 4.12.2017 31.12.2022 20,000,000 129,057 0.65%

13

225-KV GUINEA-MALI POWER INTERCONNECTION

PROJECT 13.12.2017 31/12/2021 32,378,550 - 0.00%

13 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

15,134,846 171,247 1.1%

14

CAPACITY BUILDING FOR THE NATIONAL

DOCUMENTATION AND INFORMATION CENTRE FOR

WOMEN AND CHILDREN (CNDIFE)

74,846 59,607 79.64%

15

YOUTH FORUM ON EMPLOYMENT AND PEACE BY

GYIN - GLOBAL YOUTH INNOVATION NETWORK

60,000 11,640 19.40%

16

PROJECT FOR THE ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT OF

WOMEN IN THE SHEA SUBSECTOR (PAEFFK) 03.12.2018 31/07/2023 5,000,000 -

17

SOCIO-ECONOMIC REINTEGRATION SUPPORT

PROJECT FOR THE POPULATION OF NORTHERN MALI 30.11.2016 30/06/2021 10,000,000 100,000 1.00%

17 GOVERNANCE

19,970,000 18,549,757 92.89%

18 ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE SUPPORT PROJECT 01.07.2013 30/06/2018 9,970,000 9,166,538 91.94%

19 GROWTH SUPPORT PROGRAMME 15.12.2017 30/06/2018 9,000,000 9,000,000 100.00%

20 REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT MASTER PLANS 28.02.2017 31/12/2019 1,000,000 383,220 38.32%

20 PRIVATE SECTOR

58,661,241 18,670,000 31.83%

21 LINE OF CREDIT TO THE MALI SOLIDARITY BANK 06.07.2011 01/08/2022 4,970,000 4,970,000 100.0%

22 TRADE FINANCE LINE OF CREDIT TO BSIC MALI 16.05.2018 26/12/2018 6,716,424 - 0.0%

23 MALI DEVELOPMENT BANK 18.10.2018 8/12/20215 24,974,817 - 0.0%

24 MOULIN MODERNE DU MALI 17.09.2014 30/11/2018 22,000,000 13,700,000 62.27%

TOTAL OVERALL PORTFOLIO PROJECTS

451,253,029 145,735,727 32.30%

TOTAL ACTIVE PORTFOLIO PROJECTS

325,213,237 127,065,727 39.07%

XIX

Annex 12: Table A.8: 2018 Revised Country Portfolio Performance Improvement Plan

I. LOW PROJECT QUALITY AT ENTRY

IDENTIFIED PROBLEMS REQUIRED ACTIONS RESPONSIBILITY IMPLEMENTATION

STATUS

1. Many project implementation difficulties

stem from poor studies and errors and omissions

contained in project files (under-valuation of

costs, over-sizing)

1.1 In the short term. Make use of changes in the list of goods

and services to take into account the errors and omissions

identified.

1.1.1 Sectoral

experts/GVT Immediate

1.2 In the medium term. Submit to the Country Team requests

for extensions to ensure the completion of ongoing activities.

1.1.2 Sectoral

experts/GVT/Country

Team

1.1.3 Sect. Min./ GVT

Permanent

2 PROCUREMENT

IDENTIFIED PROBLEMS REQUIRED ACTIONS RESPONSIBILITY DEADLINE

2.1 Inadaptation of the procurement methods

retained

2.1.1 Executing agencies and the Bank should make changes to

procurement methods if necessary. Sectoral experts/SNFI

/COML Immediate

2.2 Poor PIU procurement capacity

2.2.1 SNFI Procurement Experts based at COML should

continue and intensify their support to executing agencies in the

area of procurement. SNFI/COML/GVT

Immediate and

permanent

2.3 Delays related to the Bank’s "no-objection"

deadline

2.3.1 Use the authority granted to the Field Office and the

Regional Procurement Coordinator to process files at COML SBFI/COML Immediate

2.3.2 COML should strengthen the system of weekly

monitoring of files pending at the Bank COML/RDGW Immediate

2.4 Poor performance of contractors awarded

works

2.4.1 Make greater use of post-qualification for the final award

of works contracts to companies. SNFI/Sectoral experts Immediate

XX

Annex 13: Table A.9 : 2019 Indicative Operational Programme

Planned Approval

Year

Sources of

Financing

Amount

(UA million)

Project

2019 ADF grant (country

allocation)

4.08 Mali’s membership

of ATI

2019 ADF loan (country

allocation)

2.38 Partial risk guarantee

of the Kiéné project

2019 ADF loan 15 Budget support

2019 ADF loan and TSF

loan

12.65 (ADF loan :

2.15 and TSF loan :

10.5)

Agropole project

Bamako Peri-Urban

XXI

Annex 14: Table A.10: Mali: Key Macroeconomic Indicators

Source: Database of the AfDB Statistics Department (ECST)

Indicators Unit 2000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 (e) 2018 (p)

National Accounts

GNI at Current Prices Million US $ 3,093 12,776 13,840 13,904 13,964 ... ...

GNI per Capita US$ 280 770 810 790 770 ... ...

GDP at Current Prices Million US $ 2,640 13,250 14,411 13,045 14,025 13,187 14,424

GDP at 2000 Constant prices Million US $ 2,640 4,792 5,129 5,435 5,750 6,057 6,351

Real GDP Growth Rate % -3.3 2.3 7.0 6.0 5.8 5.4 4.8

Real per Capita GDP Growth Rate % -6.0 -0.7 3.9 2.9 2.7 2.2 1.7

Gross Domestic Investment % GDP 19.9 17.8 17.6 17.0 17.0 17.2 17.3

Public Investment % GDP 6.6 5.9 8.0 8.0 8.4 8.5 8.5

Private Investment % GDP 13.4 11.9 9.7 9.0 8.7 8.8 8.8

Gross National Savings % GDP 11.1 14.9 15.7 13.0 11.4 12.7 12.7

Prices and Money

Inflation (CPI) % -0.7 -0.6 0.9 1.4 -1.8 0.8 1.2

Exchange Rate (Annual Average) local currency/US$ 709.9 493.9 493.6 591.2 593.1 582.1 558.1

Monetary Growth (M2) % 44.5 10.0 6.9 15.0 10.2 6.2 ...

Money and Quasi Money as % of GDP % 28.0 35.2 34.6 36.7 37.5 43.2 ...

Government Finance

Total Revenue and Grants % GDP 19.3 17.4 17.1 19.2 19.2 19.7 19.8

Total Expenditure and Net Lending % GDP 22.4 19.7 20.0 21.0 22.2 23.0 23.0

Overall Deficit (-) / Surplus (+) % GDP -3.0 -2.4 -2.9 -1.8 -3.1 -3.3 -3.2

External Sector

Exports Volume Growth (Goods) % -99.8 7.1 -2.3 32.1 -4.0 5.1 4.2

Imports Volume Growth (Goods) % -99.9 2.0 12.6 49.9 13.3 3.8 4.6

Terms of Trade Growth % -30.2 -15.8 6.1 14.2 15.2 -0.5 -3.4

Current Account Balance Million US $ -256 -375 -677 -698 -931 -739 -748

Current Account Balance % GDP -9.7 -2.8 -4.7 -5.3 -6.6 -5.6 -5.2

External Reserves months of imports 4.7 3.0 2.1 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.1

Debt and Financial Flows

Debt Service % exports 10.7 4.6 5.9 7.7 5.9 7.0 8.2

External Debt % GDP 89.6 22.2 19.5 22.2 23.7 25.7 23.5

Net Total Financial Flows Million US $ 314 1,370 1,136 1,275 1,325 ... ...

Net Official Development Assistance Million US $ 288 1,398 1,236 1,204 1,209 ... ...

Net Foreign Direct Investment Million US $ 82 308 144 153 126 ... ...

Source : AfDB Statistics Department; IMF: World Economic Outlook,April 2018 and International Financial Statistics, April 2018;

AfDB Statistics Department: Development Data Portal Database, April 2018. United Nations: OECD, Reporting System Division.

Notes: … Data Not Available ( e ) Estimations ( p ) Projections Last Update: May 2018

MaliSelected Macroeconomic Indicators

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

%

Real GDP Growth Rate, 2006-2018

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Inflation (CPI),

2006-2018

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2,006

2,007

2,008

2,009

2,010

2,011

2,012

2,013

2,014

2,015

2,016

2,017

2,018

Current Account Balance as % of GDP,

2006-2018

XXII

Annex 15: Table A.11: Mali: Comparative Socio-economic Indicators

Source: Database of the AfDB Statistics Department (ECST)

Year Mali Africa

Develo-

ping

Countries

Develo-

ped

Countries

Basic Indicators

Area ( '000 Km²) 2018 1 240 30 067 92 017 40 008Total Population (millions) 2018 19,1 1 286,2 6 432,7 1 197,2Urban Population (% of Total) 2018 42,4 42,5 50,4 81,5Population Density (per Km²) 2018 15,8 43,8 71,9 31,6GNI per Capita (US $) 2017 770 1 767 4 456 40 142Labor Force Participation *- Total (%) 2018 66,6 65,9 62,1 60,1Labor Force Participation **- Female (%) 2018 50,8 55,5 47,6 52,2Sex Ratio (per 100 female) 2018 100,3 99,8 102,3 99,3Human Develop. Index (Rank among 189 countries) 2017 182 ... … …Popul. Living Below $ 1.90 a Day (% of Population) 2007-2017 49,7 ... 11,9 0,7

Demographic Indicators

Population Growth Rate - Total (%) 2018 3,1 2,5 1,2 0,5Population Growth Rate - Urban (%) 2018 5,0 3,6 2,3 0,7Population < 15 years (%) 2018 47,5 40,6 27,5 16,5Population 15-24 years (%) 2018 19,5 19,2 16,3 11,7Population >= 65 years (%) 2018 2,5 3,5 7,2 18,0Dependency Ratio (%) 2018 98,7 79,2 53,2 52,8Female Population 15-49 years (% of total population) 2018 22,2 24,1 25,4 22,2Life Expectancy at Birth - Total (years) 2018 58,9 63,1 67,1 81,3Life Expectancy at Birth - Female (years) 2018 59,7 64,9 69,2 83,8Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 2018 41,5 33,4 26,4 10,9Crude Death Rate (per 1,000) 2018 9,7 8,3 7,7 8,8Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000) 2017 65,8 47,7 32,0 4,6Child Mortality Rate (per 1,000) 2017 106,0 68,6 42,8 5,4Total Fertility Rate (per woman) 2018 5,9 4,4 3,5 1,7Maternal Mortality Rate (per 100,000) 2015 587,0 444,1 237,0 10,0Women Using Contraception (%) 2018 15,0 38,3 61,8 …

Health & Nutrition Indicators

Physicians (per 100,000 people) 2010-2016 8,5 33,6 117,8 300,8Nurses and midwives (per 100,000 people) 2010-2016 44,3 123,3 232,6 868,4Births attended by Trained Health Personnel (%) 2010-2017 43,7 61,7 78,3 99,0Access to Safe Water (% of Population) 2015 77,0 71,6 89,4 99,5Access to Sanitation (% of Population) 2015 24,7 39,4 61,5 99,4Percent. of Adults (aged 15-49) Living with HIV/AIDS 2017 1,2 3,4 1,1 …Incidence of Tuberculosis (per 100,000) 2016 56,0 221,7 163,0 12,0Child Immunization Against Tuberculosis (%) 2017 73,0 82,1 84,9 95,8Child Immunization Against Measles (%) 2017 61,0 74,4 84,0 93,7Underweight Children (% of children under 5 years) 2010-2016 25,0 17,5 15,0 0,9Prevalence of stunding 2010-2016 30,4 34,0 24,6 2,5Prevalence of undernourishment (% of pop.) 2016 6, 18,5 12,4 2,7Public Expenditure on Health (as % of GDP) 2014 1,6 2,6 3,0 7,7

Education Indicators

Gross Enrolment Ratio (%)

Primary School - Total 2010-2017 80,1 99,5 102,8 102,6 Primary School - Female 2010-2017 75,6 97,4 102,0 102,5 Secondary School - Total 2010-2017 41,5 51,9 59,5 108,5 Secondary School - Female 2010-2017 37,0 49,5 57,9 108,3Primary School Female Teaching Staff (% of Total) 2010-2017 30,4 48,7 53,0 81,5Adult literacy Rate - Total (%) 2010-2017 33,1 65,5 73,1 ...Adult literacy Rate - Male (%) 2010-2017 45,1 77,0 79,1 ...Adult literacy Rate - Female (%) 2010-2017 22,2 62,6 67,2 ...Percentage of GDP Spent on Education 2010-2015 3,8 4,9 4,1 5,2

Environmental Indicators

Land Use (Arable Land as % of Total Land Area) 2016 5,3 8,0 11,3 10,4Agricultural Land (as % of land area) 2016 33,8 38,2 37,8 36,5Forest (As % of Land Area) 2016 3,8 22,0 32,6 27,6Per Capita CO2 Emissions (metric tons) 2014 0,1 1,1 3,5 11,0

Sources : AfDB Statistics Department Databases; World Bank: World Development Indicators; last update :

UNAIDS; UNSD; WHO, UNICEF, UNDP; Country Reports.

Note : n.a. : Not Applicable ; … : Data Not Available. * Labor force participation rate, total (% of total population ages 15+)

** Labor force participation rate, female (% of female population ages 15+)

COMPARATIVE SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS

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XXIII

Annex 16: Mali: Country Fiduciary Risk Assessment (CFRA)

I- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The African Development Bank Group, in carrying out its activities and in accordance with its mandate,

is facing a number of risks, including fiduciary risk. The latter may be considered as the risk that the funds

allocated by the Bank to various institutions (public or private): (i) are not used for the goal and purposes

for which they were allocated; and (ii) are not used effectively and efficiently. Consequently, the

projects/programmes could be endangered if mitigation measures are not identified and implemented.

This justifies that all AfDB interventions should be subject to a fiduciary risk assessment to: (i) measure

the level of risk the Bank will have to face, and (ii) identify appropriate mitigation measures. The fiduciary

risk will be reduced with, on the one hand, the Bank’s support and assistance to its Regional Member

Countries (RMC) and, on the other hand, a robust public financial management system.

The objectives of our intervention in this exercise are, among others, to: (i) gain sufficient understanding

of fiduciary risks in the use of the country’s public financial management system; (ii) identify the

measures that the Bank and/or Country should consider for increased use of the public financial

management system through mitigation of potential identified risks; and (iii) integrate a coherent fiduciary

strategy into the CSP from previous analyses.

Our fiduciary risk assessment is based primarily on existing and available diagnostics on Mali’s public

financial management system, including: (i) the latest assessment of Mali’s public financial management

system (2016 PEFA); (ii) Mali’s Public Financial Management Reform Plan (2017-2021 PREM); (iii) the

Strategic Framework for Economic Recovery and Sustainable Development (CREDD); and (iv) the 2015

Action Plan for Improving the Business Climate. These assessments show progress, notably thanks to the

establishment of certain WAEMU Directives and the strengthening of legal instruments on external

control bodies: the Office of the Auditor General (BVG) and the Accounts Bench of the Supreme Court

(SC-CS). In addition, account has been taken of the operationalisation of the Central Office for Combating

Illicit Enrichment. Internal control over non-salary expenditure remains unsatisfactory and discrepancies

are observed between existing legal instruments (standards) and their effective implementation

(practices). Persistent weaknesses in the area of accounting, information recording and financial reporting

limit the positive developments in external auditing. They also limit the scope of improvements in policy

budgeting. Budget and financial information needed for analysis and decision remains incomplete. The

production of quality budget information is hampered by the lack of feedback from the computerised

system managed by the General Directorate of Treasury and Accounts, to the database managed by the

General Directorate of Budget. These results have an adverse impact on the credibility of the budget.

The fiduciary risk as a whole remains substantial, despite the progress noted and reported above. Ongoing

reforms, however, maintain the national public financial management system on a good trajectory.

XXIV

Summary Table of the Fiduciary Risk Assessment

Element Indicator

Average for

Capacity

Building

Initial Risk Assessment Mitigating measures

Residual risk

assessment

(after mitigation)

1. Budget

The capacity of the budget subsystem is

sufficient for budget planning (preparation) 2.20 Moderate

Continue to implement PFM improvement

recommendations Low

The capacity of the budget subsystem is

sufficient for budgetary control 1.82 Moderate

Continue to implement PFM improvement

recommendations Low

2. Cash flow

The capacity of the cash flow subsystem is

sufficient for the management of resource

flows and disbursements of aid funds

2.25 Moderate

Maintain the treasury committee and link all

remaining accounts to the CUT Low

The single treasury account is an appropriate

and reliable means of administering aid

funds.

1 Substantial

Adopt the CUT as the only means of using

government funds. Moderate

3. Accounting

and financial

reporting

The capacity of the accounting subsystem is

sufficient to record all transactions and serve

as a basis for timely and comprehensive

financial reporting.

1.75

Moderate

Improve the quality of financial statements

and shorten production times Moderate

Financial management information systems

are sufficiently flexible to meet specific

reporting requirements and are governed by

procedures to ensure compliance with

prescribed deadlines and the quality of

information produced.

0 High

Enter information from all TFP-funded

projects into SIGD.

Moderate

The financial accounting subsystem has an

integrated fixed assets module for the

appropriate recording and control of assets

acquired.

1.40 Substantial

Systematically physically check stocks

internally

Moderate

The accounting subsystem maintains up-to-

date records on the country’s loans 1.33 Substantial

Make debt information by source/currency

available to the public Moderate

The accounting systems are protected against

deliberate manipulation of data and/or

accidental loss or corruption of data

1.40 Substantial

Establish a disaster recovery plan and update

programmes and applications

Moderate

CPI Risk Assessment 32/100; 116th/170 countries ranked

XXV

Element Indicator

Average for

Capacity

Building

Initial Risk Assessment Mitigating measures

Residual risk

assessment

(after mitigation)

4. Internal

audit

The capacity of the internal audit subsystem

is sufficient.

1.77 Moderate

Clearly define the notion of conflict of interest

in manuals and distribute them to the staff

concerned

Low

Mechanisms for competitive bidding,

optimal use of resources and control of

procurement are appropriate.

2. 33 Moderate

Justify all use of less competitive procurement

methods

Low

The capacity of the internal audit function is

sufficient 1.33 Moderate

Implementation of the National Internal

Control Strategy (SNCI) Low

5. External

audit

The ISC has the degree of "indépendence"

required to enable it to effectively carry out

its missions.

1.5 Substantial

Strengthening the Accounts Section of the

Supreme Court

Moderate

The ISC has the required capacity to fulfill

its audit mission. 0 High

Strengthen the Accounts Section of the

Supreme Court

Moderate

OVERALL RISK ASSESSMENT 1.43 Substantial Moderate

Risk assessment

Less than 0.75 High risk

Between 0.76 and 1.50 Substantial risk

Between 1.51 and 2.50 Moderate risk

Between 2.51 and 3.00 Low risk

XXVI

II- DETAILED RISK ANALYSIS

The fiduciary risk assessment of the public financial management system is based on the risk

assessment of each component of this system as follows:

2.1. Budget

In general, the Malian State budget remained credible following the 2016 PEFA assessment,

despite a slight deterioration of ratings used in the calculation due to the 2012 political and

security crisis. Coverage and transparency have also improved in recent years compared to the

information contained in the documents accompanying the 2016 Finance Bill, in order to

facilitate understanding and parliamentary control. The completeness and transparency of the

budget have been improved relative to criteria defined in the PEFA methodology. In accordance

with WAEMU Directives, the country is the process of adopting the programme budget

methodology. The annual budget preparation process has evolved favourably. It allows for the

drafting of the Finance Bill within the time allowed to Government for referral to the National

Assembly. In addition, a computerised cash flow management system has been established to

improve budget execution control capacity. Expenditure control rules and procedures are well

estabished. They are relatively efficient for salary expenditure, but relatively insufficient for

non-salary expenditure. The means of (internal) control services should be fixed in relation to

the scope of their missions. As a result of the foregoing, the fiduciary risk of this component

was considered moderate.

2.2. Cash

Cash management is ensured by a (cash) commission chaired by the Minister of the Economy

and Finance and bringing together all assessment and recovery services, on the one hand, and

public expenditure services, on the other hand. The Central Treasury Accounting Agency

(ACCT) is responsible for centralising and consolidating the information required for

management of the State treasury. At the level of predictability, budget execution is satisfactory

and cash-flow is monitored for some time now. Expenditure commitment ceilings for

Ministries, Directorates and Agencies are, therefore, regularly provided through Appropriation

Orders each quarter. These appropriations take into account the cash position prepared by the

National Directorate of Treasury and Public Accounting. Ministries are informed of their

commitment ceilings three months in advance. For the Bamako accounting stations (90% of

resources), the consolidation of cash balances is done daily and weekly. Consolidation of cash

balances for all accounting stations is monthly. It should be noted, however, that there are no

official estimates of outstanding external or domestic unsecured debt. In addition, the State still

has many accounts in commercial banks, contrary to the principle of the single treasury account

enacted by the 2009 WAEMU Directive. The fiduciary risk on this component was

considered substantial.

2.3. Accounting and Reporting

Budget execution reports are regular, complete and of quality. The operations carried out during

a given month are reconciled no later than the end of the following month, under the signature

of ACCT. Ordinary current account reconciliation at the BCEAO is done on a daily basis. All

transfer orders and cheques issued are recorded in the bank monitoring registers opened by bank

account. The date, the name of the beneficiary and the cheque amount are entered in the tracking

register and, every day, the bank statements are reconciled to these registers. Deviations are

sought and corrections requested at the various banks. As regards the adjustments of accounts

and advances, delays are longer. Indeed, reconciliation and adjustment of suspense and advance

accounts are done every year with a delay of more than two months and these suspense accounts

XXVII

remain uncleared. Schools and health centres have budget lines in the budget of the State and

local authorities. Their expenses are therefore included in the management account of the State

principal accountant to which the school or health centre is attached. Consequently, when these

structures receive the resources in kind, there is no stores accounting or global monitoring

system for these resources. The structures in question fill in sheets indicating the number and

value of what has been transmitted to them, but these sheets are neither consolidated in a central

register nor published. The computer system used by the Treasury also allows for comparisons

with the initial budget based on all four classifications used for the preparation and monitoring

of the budget. A quarterly budget execution report is also published on the website of the

Ministry of the Economy and Finance containing as an annex consolidated figures based on

administrative and economic classification only, making it possible to compare budgetary

allocations, committed appropriations and liquidated appropriations. Reports do not provide

information on actual payments, nor on the extent of outstanding commitments. Thus, the

fiduciary risk on this component was considered substantial.

2.4. Internal Audit

At the level of the internal control and audit system, control bodies are operational. Internal

audits are carried out by the General Directorate of Financial Control (DGCF), the Inspectorate

of Finance (IF) and Ministerial Inspectorates. The reports prepared for all the entities controlled

are forwarded to MEF, the Prime Minister’s Office and the Presidency. Internal control is

carried out: (i) ex ante by the DNCF, which carries out exhaustive control of budgetary and

accounting regularity on all expenditure of the State budget, Regional Authorities and Public

Establishments; (ii) ex poste by the General Control of Public Services, the Inspectorate of

Finance and Ministerial Inspectorates. Ex ante control is strengthened by the PRED5 computer

application, which integrates the three phases of the expenditure cycle (commitment, clearance

and authorisation). This application prevents you from incurring an expense if credit is not

available. Systematically, all State structures with the exception of Public Establishments, are

subject to a year-end audit on the control of revenue and expenditure collected as at 31

December and sanctioned by a report sent to the controlled structures, MEF and the Support

Unit for Administrative Control Structures (CASCA). Procedural Manuals are prepared, which

allows for a good implementation of procedures and many training sessions on internal control

have been carried out within the framework of PAGAM/GFP II. In addition, the redundancy

that has for long characterised internal control in public financial management in Mali has been

reduced, since the General Control of Public Services plays the role of coordinator of

interventions, although the CGSP and the Inspectorate of Finance happened to carry out a field

mission at the same time to verify accounting elements. The fiduciary risk was considered

moderate.

2.5. External Control

Mali has two external control bodies: the Office of the Auditor General (BVG), which carries

out mainly targeted audits and the Accounts Bench (SC) of the Supreme Court (CS), which

focuses mainly on auditing the administrative and management accounts of the State. Its audit

reports and the corresponding compliance certificates on the execution of the finance laws are

forwarded to Parliament, but almost a year late compared to the legal deadlines, mainly because

of the time taken by MEF to respond to the requests addressed to it by the SC-CS. Nevertheless,

the Accounts Section quickly presents its audit reports to Parliament, once the answers have

been provided by the Ministry of Finance. The SC-CS does not have sufficient human and

material resources to effectively fulfill the tasks assigned to it. Despite this handicap, the SC-

CS since 2012 carries out judicial review, notably the accelerated jurisdictional clearance of the

accounts from 1960 to 2008 and the regular judgement of the accounts of 2009 and 2010. Its

XXVIII

legal framework complies with the "ISC Independence" standard defined by INTOSAI. The

SC-CS audit reports of the execution of the finance laws are not published before the adoption

of the settlement law by Parliament and the latter does not make recommendations on the basis

of these reports. From the foregoing, the fiduciary risk was considered high.

III- GOVERNANCE AND CORRUPTION

Mali’s public financial management system has improved following the latest diagnostic

studies. However, there are still many challenges. Indeed, the country shows modest

performance in terms of governance and the fight against corruption. In 2017, the country was

ranked 122nd out of 180, according to Transparency International’s Corruption Perception

Index (CPI), with a total score of 31 points out of 100. In addition, the overall score given to

Mali by the Bank Group in the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) was 3.7 in

2016.

The legal and regulatory framework of Mali’s national procurement system is governed by

Decree No. 2015-0604/P-RM of 25 September 2015 on the Code of Public Contracts and Public

Service Delegations (and its subsequent instruments). The Bank carried out several assessments

of Mali’s public procurement procedures (2010, 2013 and 2016) that concerned the assessment

of the Public Procurement Code (PPC), national standard bidding documents (NSBD) and the

fiduciary risks associated with internal control mechanisms. This evaluation showed that these

procedures can be used in some sectors for AfDB-financed contracts in Mali, and that NSBDs,

broadly similar to those of the Bank, can also be used, since the said standard documents result

from the transposition of WAEMU regional standard procurement documents into Malian law.

This situation leads to an inherent level of risk considered "substantial" in the context of the use

of national systems. However, there is an action plan to improve public financial management

and the business climate, supported by government and all technical and financial partners. This

plan is under implementation and if it continues to be correctly implemented, the residual risk

could be reduced over the long term to a "moderate" level.

IV- CONCLUSION OF THE FIDUCIARY RISK ASSESSMENT

Finally, following recent assessments of the public financial management system, Mali’s public

financial management system has had encouraging results.

However, the overall fiduciary risk remains significant on the basis of available fiduciary

assessments. The Bank, in its strategy, should continue to provide institutional support targeted

primarily on external and internal control and coupled with other types of intervention by the

Institution. Such institutional support should allow for a substantial strengthening of the

shortcomings previously highlighted and thus enable the Bank, before the end of the period

covered by this strategy, after evaluation, to test the public expenditure chain through a pilot

project, in accordance with the Paris Declaration on the use of national systems.

XXIX

V- RISK MITIGATION MEASURES AND THE BANK’S FIDUCIARY

STRATEGY

5.1. Risk Mitigation Measures

After the above assessment, certain mitigation measures should be envisaged. These are:

1- Capacity building for the Accounts Bench of the Supreme Court to enable it to fully

carry out its missions;

2- Submission to the Accounts Bench, by government, of settlement laws within legal

deadlines, in particular, no later than 31 July following the closing of each fiscal year ;

3- The effective implementation of the National Internal Control Strategy.

5.2. The Bank’s Fiduciary Strategy

From the foregoing, it is envisaged to implement the following fiduciary strategy in Mali:

Level of use of the national public financial management system: In accordance with the

provisions of the Paris Delaration and the Accra Action Plan on aid effectiveness, the decision

by the Bank to use the components of the National Public Financial Management System was

examined on the basis of the assessment of the said system (see Fiduciary risks and mitigation

measures), guidelines, practices, risk appetite and tolerances by the Bank and other factors such

as perception of the level of governance and corruption. The review revealed a significant

fiduciary risk.

While recognising the progress made in the country, and that an approach based exclusively on

AfDB procedures and parallel systems would not guarantee aid effectivenessand the

strengthening of the national system, the Bank will favour an approach adapted to the type of

operation envisaged, focused on support for public financial reforms. This may be revised

during the period, if necessary. Thus:

Budget support using the National Public Financial System, will have to continue by

incorporating objectives and conditionalities that will accelerate the implementation of

fiduciary risk mitigation measures;

Before the end of the period covered by this strategy, the Bank will, after evaluation,

test the public expenditure chain through a pilot project that it will finance through this

circuit;

The Bank must engage with Government to support the continuation of reforms of the

national public financial management system. Since strengthening national institutions

is the most effective and sustainable solution to address the challenges of governance

and to mitigate the fiduciary risks to public funds, it is important that, in its strategy,

the Bank supports national reform efforts. This commitment will have to materialise in

the form of institutional support targeted primarily on internal and external control and

coupled with other types of intervention by the Institution.