Adapting Water Resource Management to Climate Change Impacts Dr. Lee Tryhorn Adapting Water Resource...

Adapting Water Resource

Management to Climate Change

Impacts

Dr. Lee Tryhorn

Adapting Water Resource

Management to Climate Change

Impacts

Dr. Lee Tryhorn

Talk Outline

• Overview of NYS ClimAID project• Evidence of a changing climate• Climate model predictions for NYS• Key vulnerabilities for NYS• Adaptations

2Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

3

Climate Risk

Adaptation

CLIMATE-PROTECTED NYSCLIMATE-PROTECTED NYSReduced Vulnerability and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity

Vulnerability

EconomicsEquity and Environmental Justice

Science-Policy Linkages

Water Sector Team

• Rebecca Schneider (co-leader, Cornell) • Andrew McDonald (co-leader, Cornell)• Art DeGaetano (climate, Cornell) • Alan Frei (hydrology modeler, CUNY)• Susan Riha (Director, NYS WRI) • Steve Shaw (hydrologist, Cornell)• Lee Tryhorn (climate, Cornell)• Contact: [email protected]

4PIs: C. Rosensweig (Columbia), A. DeGaetano (Cornell), W. Solecki (CUNY)

Talk Outline



Precipitation Increases

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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Ext

rem

e ev

ents

(5-

yr a

vera

ge)

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences

Decreases in snow cover


Increase in lake-effect snow

8

Talk Outline



Future projections

• Increased winter precipitation with more falling as rain.• Increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall

events, coupled with the potential for more summer drought


Future projections

Cornell Earth and Atmospheric Sciences 11

Northeast Climate Impact Assessment, 2007

Talk Outline



Vulnerabilities: More flooding?

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In New York,flood damageswere $54.8 million in 2006

Albany

AlleganyBroomeCattaraugus

Cayu

ga

Chautauqua

Chemung

Chen

ango

Clinton

ColumbiaCortl

and

Delaware

Dutc

hess

Erie

Essex

Franklin

FultonGenesee

Greene

Hamilton

Her

kim

er

Jefferson

Lewis

Living

ston

Madison

Monroe

Montg.

NassauNY City

Niagara OneidaOnondagaOntario

Orange

OrleansOswego

Wayne

SteubenTioga

Tompkins

Schuyler

Ulster

Westchester

Putnam

Sullivan

RocklandSuffolk

Otsego Rensselaer

Schenectady

Was

hing

ton

Schohari

e

St. Lawrence

Warren

Wyoming

Yates Sene

ca

Saratoga

0x

1x

2x

3x

4x

6x

7x

Flood events per county from1994- 2006

(FEMA disaster designation)

Albany

AlleganyBroomeCattaraugus

Cayu

ga

Chautauqua

Chemung

Chen

ango

Clinton

ColumbiaCortl

and

Delaware

Dutc

hess

Erie

Essex

Franklin

FultonGenesee

Greene

Hamilton

Her

kim

er

Jefferson

Lewis

Living

ston

Madison

Monroe

Montg.

NassauNY City

Niagara OneidaOnondagaOntario

Orange

OrleansOswego

Wayne

SteubenTioga

Tompkins

Schuyler

Ulster

Westchester

Putnam

Sullivan

RocklandSuffolk

Otsego Rensselaer

Schenectady

Was

hing

ton

Schohari

e

St. Lawrence

Warren

Wyoming

Yates Sene

ca

Saratoga

0x

1x

2x

3x

4x

6x

7x

Flood events per county from1994- 2006

(FEMA disaster designation)


Vulnerabilities: More flooding?

14Identified from 50 yr long USGS discharge record

Ten-Mile Creek (Dutchess Ct.)

1984 5 consecutive days of moderate rain

1955 Hurricanes Diane & Connie

Vulnerabilities

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less snow / more rain

larger storm rainfall amounts

longer growing season

+ + more ET/ drier soils+ = ?


Vulnerabilities: Design criteria

Central Park1940 - 1960 1970-2006

2-yr 3.10 3.8650-yr 6.21 7.31100-yr 7.22 8.39

Ithaca2-yr 2.43 2.4950-yr 4.46 5.73100-yr 5.08 6.86


Combined Sewer Overflows (CSOs)

• already occur with rainfall > 1”/hr

• 24 billion gallons untreated sewage/yr enter Great Lakes (Sierra Legal rpt 12/06)

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Vulnerabilities: Short-term droughts

• Increased frequency of short-terms droughts• Impacts on crops, livestock, reservoirs, and

municipal well supplies.

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2.9 million acres of agricultural land in NY (NASS, 2006)

$ 3.1 billion value ofagricultural products (NASS, 2006)

Approximately 2.5% of NY agricultural land is irrigated (NASS, 2002).

Drought is already a significant production constraint in many years.

Vulnerabilities: Sea-level rise

• Sea level rise with shoreline flooding, salt water intrusion and groundwater degradation in New York’s coastal areas.

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Three million people on Long Island are dependent on groundwater resources

Talk Outline



Dealing with climate change through adaptation


NYS Water Resources

• 40 inches of average annual precipitation• 1,236 sq. miles of lakes, ponds, & reservoirs• 577 miles of Great Lakes shoreline• 52,337 miles of rivers and streams• 1,530 sq. miles of estuaries, bays, and harbors• 3,750 sq. miles of freshwater wetlands• Extensive groundwater resources


Multiple Scales of Adaptation

1. Local – Context specific adaptation strategies2. Regional – Leadership3. Statewide government role4. National context for planning and policy

Temporal scale: <10 yrs, 10-40 yrs, +40yrs


Local1. Increase monitoring for water supply2. Engage volunteer groups and private citizens to multiply agency

efforts in monitoring and management. Give them training and tools.

3. Water quality:- Disconnect existing CSOs- Update manure spreading practices - Require septic system maintenance

4. Phased withdrawal from high-flood risk, floodplain areas

– Conduct buy-outs after floods– Move wastewater treatment plants– Transfer land to public parks


Regional strategies

• Lead short, long-term planning tailored to the region • Prioritize climate change issues and needs – Planning documents will be key to access funds for

implementation as they become available via Federal Stimulus/ other.

• Identify a centrally-located lead office to share resources, expertise, demonstration sites with surrounding region

• Organize monitoring networks and data collection - E.g. water supply, floods, droughts.

• Organize rapid response plan and team


State Gov Role• Mainstream climate change into all planning and

regulations – update to reflect most recent climate data• Funnel state and federal funds to implement projects• Institutionalize mechanisms for long-term monitoring and

centralized data collection • Provide guidance and technical training • Identify and alleviate bottlenecks inhibiting adoption• Develop criteria for prioritization in face of limiting

resources (e.g. vulnerability, ecosystem value, economics.) • Support targeted research


A National context...


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Greater political and economic pressure for inter-basin water transfers to water-stressed regions, both nationally and internationally?

The Great Lakes Basin contains 95% of the fresh surface waters in North America and 20% of the freshwater globally.


Adaptation planning in a national context

• Pro-active planning of a statewide water program, including water conservation practices and pricing controls to manage during droughts, or export .

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Questions?


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