Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful development

Graeme I PearmanGP Consulting Pty LtdMonash University:

Geography and Environmental ScienceMonash Sustainability InstituteFaculty of Business Economics

Adapting our cities: New paradigms for successful development

• Adaptation as a response to climate change• Adapting to what?

• Key opportunities• Key threats• Changing our mind-set

Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful

development

Adaptation as a response to climate change

• Adapting to

• Key opportunities• Key threats• Changing our mind-set• Adapting to what?

• Climate change: an example of non-sustainability• Significant change is inevitable• Adaptation buys time, grasps opportunities

• “ the most important lesson learned from the climate change issue may be that societal evolution, as devoid of direction and long-term strategy as it is, has led our behaviour and societal institutions in directions that are unsustainable not only through changing climate, but in many other ways”.

Pearman and Härtel (2009)

Probability of change

Magnitude/sensitivity to change

Spontaneous Adaptive Capacity

Potential Exposure

VulnerabilityRisk

Strategy

Mitigate

Managed adaptation

Resilience

Socio-Economic capacity

Willingness to adapt

How well do we assess risk?

• There are 6 million parts in a Boeing 747– How many could be removed or rendered

inoperable before you would decide not to fly?

• IPCC concluded that there is a 50% chance of a 20-30% of all species being at risk with a warming of 1.5-2.5oC– There has been virtually no media or public

attention to this risk

• What are the consequences of inoperable ecosystems?

Letter from the American Association for the Advancement of Science to the US Senate, October 21, 2009

American Association for the Advancement of ScienceAmerican Chemical SocietyAmerican Geophysical UnionAmerican Institute of Biological SciencesAmerican Meteorological SocietyAmerican Society of AgronomyAmerican Society of Plant BiologistsAmerican Statistical AssociationAssociation of Ecosystem Research Centers

Botanical Society of AmericaCrop Science Society of AmericaEcological Society of AmericaNatural Science Collections AllianceOrganization of Biological Field StationsSociety for Industrial and Applied MathematicsSociety of Systematic BiologistsSoil Science Society of AmericaUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric Research

“Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, …rigorous

scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver”.

“…based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science”.

“strong evidence that ongoing climate change will have broad impacts on society, including the global economy and on the environment”.

“severity of climate change impacts is expected to increase substantially in the coming decades. If we are to

avoid the most severe impacts of climate change, emissions of greenhouse gases must be dramatically reduced”.

“adaptation will be necessary to address those impacts that are already unavoidable”.

“Adaptation efforts include improved infrastructure design, more sustainable management of water and other natural resources, modified agricultural practices, and improved emergency responses to storms, floods, fires and heat waves”.

Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful

development

• Adaptation as a response to climate change

Adapting to what?– Changed climate– Changed energy

futures

• Key opportunities• Key threats• Changing our mind-set• Conclusions

Glo

bal

mea

n t

emp

erat

ure

ch

ang

e (o

C)

2400

3

2

1

2000 2100 2200 2300

Emissions peak: 2015

Temperatures peak: ~2065

Uncertainty range:▬ 10th percentile

▬ 50th percentile

▬ 90th percentile

Parry et al. (2009). Overshoot, adapt and recover. Nature 458, 1102-1103.

Adaptation: essential part of coping

Key issues for development industries 1

Increased• Energy consumption/prices• Use of alternative energy sources• Heat effects from overheating• Damage from more intense storms

Key issues for development industries 2

Increased• Damage from flooding• Damage from soil drying• Bushfire risk• Sustainability credentials

Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful

building

• Adaptation as a response to climate change• Adapting to what?

Key opportunities– Energy efficiency– Urban form– Energy sourcing– Transportation

• Key threats• Changing our mind-set• Conclusions

Source: Based on McKinsey Australia Climate Change Initiative

IndustryBuildingsForestryPowerTransportAgriculture

Motor systemsCommercial air conditioning efficiency

Commercial heating efficiencyCommercial air handling efficiency

Water heating residential efficiencyCar fuel economy

Lighting efficiency commercialStand-by savings residential

BiofuelsRefrigeration efficiencyResidential heating/ventilation efficiencyConservation tillage

Agriculture, livestock

Reforestation

Energy effic., basic materials prod.Coal-to-gas shifts, new builds

Non-CO2 energySoil CO2 Avoided deforestation

Geothermal

On-shore windAfforestation,

croplandCoal-to-gas shiftAgriculture, waste

Coal CCS retrofit

Biomass

Solar PV

3020

X Reduction below 1990 levels, %Cost of abatement

A$/t CO2e

Abatement below business as usual (Mt CO2e)

10050 350150 200 250 3000

Break-even point

Afforestration, pastureForest management

0

-200

50

-150

-50

-100

100

New build windowsResidential lighting efficiency

Australian greenhouse-gas abatementcost curve for 2020

Cost of abatement

Reduction of Australian emissions is:

• “achievable- 30 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and 60 percent by 2030 without major technological breakthroughs or lifestyle changes”

• “affordable with an average annual gross cost of approximately A$290 per household to reduce emissions in 2020 to 30 percent below 1990 levels”

McKinsey (2008)

Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful

building

• Adaptation as a response to climate change• Adapting to what?• Key opportunities

Key threats– Conservatism– Vested interests– Ourselves

• Changing our mind-set• Conclusions

Emotional responses

Coping mechanisms

Anxious Minimising

Scared Denying

Sad Avoiding

Threat Depressed Scepticism

Numb Desensitises

Helpless Depend on others

Hopeless Resigned

Frustrated Cynical

Angry Fed up

Common reactions to learning about severe environmental problems

Based on Australian Psychological Society (2008) Climate Change: What You Can Do. http://www.psychology.org.au/publications/tip_sheets/climate/

Information, behaviour and rationality

Common assumptions

• People are essentially rational

• Rationality is conscious (we choose)

• Denial is a kind of irrationality

• Irrationality and denial can be overcome by more information

Alternative assumptions

• What is rational in one context may be irrational in another

• Most rationalities are “stored” in the unconscious

• Every rationality is guided by emotion

De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC

Fien et al. (2008): personal communication

Human behavioural response determinates

Societal structures Politics and governance Social institutions Imbedded social norms

ResponsesFramed in societal norms and behavioural characteristics

Underpinning drivers of behaviour of individuals Genetic Learned Deeply embedded characteristics

Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful

building

• Adaptation as a response to climate change• Adapting to what?• Key opportunities• Key threats

Changing our mind-set and building resilience– Holism– Strategic-ness– Attention to societal

evolution & its directions

• Conclusions

Future motor vehicle fuel security

Oil Imports

Motor vehicle fuels

CO2

Emissions

Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme

Energy efficiency targets

Renewable energy targets

Rising costs

Increased global demand-Falling

availability

Rapidly diminishing national production

Limited supplies-peak oil

Threat of conflict

Biofuels Food, water

Pollutants Human health

Fuel security

Balance of payments

Rising demand

Affluence PopulationEmployment

Social coherence

Building resilience

• Holism– CC coexists with poverty alleviation, energy & national security,

etc.– Mitigation & adaptation impact on employment, competition,

economics, other environmental problems, etc.– Disciplinary, sectoral, national, personally isolated strategies often

fail to deliver to those jurisdictions or to whole community needs

• Uncertainty– Uncertainty exists & will always exists concerning the future.

Rather than attract delay it should demand actions & with urgency. It is a matter of the risk.

• Strategic-ness– Where we wish to be over time, economically, socially &

environmentally. Not set in stone but guidance towards broad, widely shared aspirations

– Incorporate issues of future food, water, health, environmental security, disaster mitigation, security issues, etc.

– Builds options & thus resilience into the future, in face of uncertainty

Adapting our cities:New paradigms for successful building

• The role of adaptation as a response to climate change• Adapting to what?• Key opportunities• Key threats• Changing our mind-set

• Conclusions

Development sector risk/opportunities

• Change in environmental exposure– Extremes of wind, temperature, aridity and rainfall,

inundation and flooding

• Changes available natural resources– Water, disposal

• Changing impacts globally– Competitors, suppliers, markets

• Revolutionary changes to energy– Sources, utilisation and costs– Materials, energy standards, new technologies

Dr. Keith Suter