Climate change: Are we up to the challenge? Graeme I Pearman Director, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty...
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Transcript of Climate change: Are we up to the challenge? Graeme I Pearman Director, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty...
Climate change:
Are we up to the challenge?
Graeme I PearmanDirector, Graeme Pearman Consulting Pty LtdAdjunct Senior Research Fellow, Monash UniversityBoard, The Climate Institute, START International
Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?
• What is the climate change issue?
September 20, 2010 Aust. Inst. Physics/Roy. Aust. Chemical Inst. Climate Change: Spreading the GOOD News
The climate change issue
Emissions
Choice of technology
Energy demand
Affl
uenc
ePopul
atio
n Efficiency
Human health
Climate change Sea
leve
lRai
nfall
Biodiv
ersi
ty
GDP
Agricultu
re
Aspirations Energy supply/demandClimate system
Climate impacts
The climate change issue
Emissions
Choice of technology
Energy demand
Affl
uenc
ePopul
atio
n Efficiency
Human health
Climate change Sea
leve
lRai
nfall
Biodiv
ersi
ty
• Vested interests• Natural resources• Ignorance• Market failure
GDP
Culture, education, advertising, promotions
Perceptions, conscious or unconscious of:
• Wellbeing• Success
• Risk assessment• Beliefs• Ignorance• Sectoral interests
Agricultu
re
Aspirations Energy supply/demandClimate system
Climate impacts
What is possible?What we know and don’t know is based on:
• Principles of physics and fluid dynamics– Greenhouse gases impact global temperature known for 120 years
• Observed change - distant past– We can not take climate stability for granted
• Observed change - recent past– Warming has occurred with associated changes to biology, water
availability, etc.
• Anticipated future climate change– Unless emissions are reduced, warming will continue
• Anticipated impacts– On all sectors of the society, but unevenly spread
• Uncertainty– Remains and this will always be so
Key questions to be addressed
• What is climate change?– The change to the long-term weather due to
greenhouse gases
• Has the Earth’ climate changed in the past?– Yes, “enormously” through geologic times
• Has the climate changed recently?– Yes, the atmosphere and oceans have warned globally
and in Australia
• Are humans the cause?– Our use of energy is increasing greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere, and this is very likely the reason for recent warming
Key questions to be addressed
• What will happen into the future?– Depends on how much more we emit these gases
• What are the consequences?– It will have significant impact on society and the
environment
• How do we deal with the uncertainties of the science?– We weigh the probability of the scientific projections
being correct against the impact if they are– But this challenges many who wish perfect anticipation
of the future
Global surface temperature changerelative to 1951-1980 mean
Hanson et al. (2010)
Trend in sea surface temperature, 1970-2009 (oC/10 years)
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/change/trendmaps.cgi
Gravity satellite ice sheet measurements
Greenland Ice Sheet Antarctic Ice Sheet
Source: Velicogna, I. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L19503, doi:10.1029/2009GL040222, 2009.
Contributed 0.4 mm/year sea level rise
Contributed 0.6 mm/year sea level rise
Global sea level rise, Satellite measurements
http://sealevel.colorado.edu and Leuliette et al., 2004: Marine Geodesy, 27(1-2), 79-94.
Ch
ang
e in
mea
n s
ea l
evel
(m
m)
40
20
0
-20
It is the high pressure ridge that dominates much of our climate
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Long-term changes of the intensity (pressure ) of the Autumn-Winter subtropical ridge and global
average temperature+ 1.0
- 1.0
0.0
1920 1940 19801960
0.0
+ 0.4
- 1.0
Pre
ssu
re (
hP
a)T
emp
erature (
oC)
Timbal et al. (2009): South eastern Australian Climate Initiative
Planetary biology is changing
E.g. For south-eastern Australia marine fish
• “dramatic” warming of the ocean observed
• 45 species of fish exhibit major geographic shifts thought to be climate related
Last et al. (2010): Global Ecol. Bigeogr.
Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?
• What is the climate change issue?
• What is it about us that causes this issue?
Dec. 02, 2009
Emissions are on the high side of projections
Le Quéré et al. (2009).
High end of projections
Role of coal
Economic growth in developing world
Affluence and expectations
National anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases
Mt CO2 equivalent (excluding forestry/land-use change), 2009
Australia 549Canada 732China 7219 France 550Germany 977Italy 566Indonesia 594Japan 1343Russia 1960United Kingdom665United States 6964
World Resources Institute (2009)
Emissions Per Person
SOURCE: ClimateWorks, Monash
Cost curve to reduce emissions by 249 Mt CO2e by 2020
Commercial retrofit energy waste reduction
Petroleum and gas maintenance
Pasture and grassland management
Residential appliances and electronics
Commercial retrofit HVAC
10050 1500 200 250
Active livestock feeding
Gas CCS new build
Solar PV (centralised)
Chemicals processes and fuel shift
Anti-methanogenic treatments
Wind offshore
Other industry energy efficiency
Commercial new builds
Commercial retrofit lighting
Residential lighting
Reforestation of marginal land with timber plantation
Mining VAM oxidation
Cement clinker substitution by slag
Coal to gas shift (increased
gas utilisation)
Residential new builds
Mining energy efficiency
Diesel car and light commercial efficiency improvement
Aluminium energy efficiency
Reforestation of marginal land with environmental forest
Commercial elevators and appliances
Petrol car and light commercial efficiency improvement Reduced cropland soil emissions
Commercial retrofit insulation
Cogeneration
Operational improvements to existing coal plant thermal efficiency
Reduced T&D losses
Cropland carbon sequestration
Degraded farmland restoration
Coal CCS new build with EOR
Capital improvements to existing gas plant thermal efficiency
Solar thermal
Biomass/biogas
Biomass co-firing
Onshore wind (marginal locations)
Improved forest management Geothermal
Coal to gas shift (gas new build) Onshore wind (best locations)
Strategic reforestation of non-marginal
land with environmental forest
Reduced deforestation and regrowth clearing
Commercial retrofit water heating
Operational improvements to existing gas plant thermal efficiency
Coal CCS new build
Emissions reduction potential Mt per year
IndustryPower
Transport
Cost to society
A$/tCO2e
-200
-100
200
100
0
BuildingsForestryAgriculture
E.g. The energy sector
• Particularly impacted by emissions reduction efforts– Taxes, trading schemes, energy efficiency,
alternative energy sources
• Weighed against expense to agriculture, water sector, natural environment, tourism, national or regional security, etc.
• Need for more holistic options whereby interests of any one sector/nation do not:– Dominate policy development or the
availability of information
Future motor vehicle fuel security
Oil Imports
Motor vehicle fuels and
technologies
3. Carbon dioxide
Emissions
Carbon Pollution
Reduction Scheme
Energy efficiency
targets
Renewable energy targets
Rising costs
Increased global demand-Falling
availability
Rapidly diminishing national production
Limited supplies-peak oil
Threat of conflict
Biofuels Food, water
4. Pollutants Human health
1. Fuel security
2. Balance of payments
5. Rising demand
Affluence PopulationEmployment
Social coherence
August 22, 2010August 07, 2010
Notional futures of oil for car transport
Jamison (2009)
Carbon dioxide emissions under notional futures for Australian car transport
Pearman et al. (2009) http://www.mynrma.com.au/cps/rde/xbcr/mynrma/Jamison-Group-Fuelling-Future-Passenger-Vehicle-Use-in-Australia-February2010.pdf?cpssessionid=SID-34E2763C-9A249675
20
40
60
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
CO2 emissions with business as usual
With intervention (renewable electricity)
Intervention but black coal electricity
Intervention but brown coal electricity generation
CO
2 em
issi
on
s, (
Tg
CO
2 o
r M
t C
O2)
Energy options, the rush is on:
Energy efficiency strategies
• Reducing the reliance on energy for production, transportation and storage
• Resources use and recovery
• Mitigation is an urgent/essential response but needs to:– Consider many options: uncertainties surround all options-
economics, technologies, rate of implementation, societal and environmental issues: Deliver resilience
McIntosh (2008): Hell and High Water: Climate Change, Hope and the Human Condition
• “….the problem is driven not by fundamental human needs, but by manipulated wants that find expression in consumerism”
Affluenza• “The bloated, sluggish unfulfilled feeling that
results from efforts to keep up with the Joneses”
• “An epidemic of stress, overwork, waste and indebtedness caused by dogged pursuits of the Australian dream”
• “An unsustainable addiction to economic growth”
• “a condition in which we are confused about what it takes to live a worthwhile life”
Hamilton and Denniss (2005): Affluence: When too much is never enough
Messages about sustainability
The climate change issue results from:
• Our expectations– Culture, history, education, market economy,
advertising
• Technological innovations
• Our choices
• Natural resource inheritance
Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?
• What is the climate change issue?• What is it about us that causes this issue?
• What is it about us that makes it hard to respond?
Probability of change
Magnitude/sensitivity to change
Spontaneous Adaptive Capacity
Potential Exposure
VulnerabilityRisk
Strategy
Mitigate
Managed adaptation
Resilience
Socio-Economic capacity
Willingness to adapt
How well do we assess risk?
• There are 6 million parts in a Boeing 747– How many could be removed or rendered
inoperable before you would decide not to fly?
• IPCC concluded that there is a 50% chance of a 20-30% of all species being at risk with a warming of 1.5-2.5oC– There has been virtually no media or public
attention to this risk
• What are the consequences of inoperable ecosystems?
550 750 Ref450
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Coping Range Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability
Wat
er a
vail
abil
ity
Co
asta
l C
om
mu
nit
ies
En
erg
y S
ecu
rity
Maj
or
Infr
astr
uct
ure
Hea
t re
late
d d
eath
s
To
uri
sm
Ag
ricu
ltu
re a
nd
Fo
rest
ry
Fo
od
Sec
uri
ty
Nat
ura
l E
cosy
stem
s
2050
2050
2050
2050
2100
2100
2100
2100
Eq
uil
22 C
Eq
uil E
qu
il
Based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
oC
• Science pursues “truth” and thus is typically lagging, searching for certainty
• In contrast, risk management is pragmatic and proactive stance (leading approach) aimed at balancing the probabilities of an event occurring against its potential impact
• This disparity often leads the general community to underestimate the practical risks implicated by scientific conclusions
Pearman and Härtel (2009)
Emotional responses
Coping mechanisms
Anxious Minimising
Scared Denying
Sad Avoiding
Threat Depressed Scepticism
Numb Desensitises
Helpless Depend on others
Hopeless Resigned
Frustrated Cynical
Angry Fed up
Common reactions to learning about severe environmental problems
Based on Australian Psychological Society (2008) Climate Change: What You Can Do. http://www.psychology.org.au/publications/tip_sheets/climate/
Assumption about rationality
Common assumptions
• People are essentially rational
• Rationality is conscious (we choose)
• Denial is a kind of irrationality
• Irrationality and denial can be overcome by more information
Alternative assumptions
• What is rational in one context may be irrational in another
• Most rationalities are “stored” in the unconscious
• Every rationality is guided by emotion
De Kirby et al. (2007): In what can you do to fight global warming and spark a movement, Island press, Washington DC
Fien et al. (2008): personal communication
• Standard economics: Assumes “…all human decisions are rational and informed..”
• Behavioural economics: “ …people are susceptible to
irrelevant influences …emotions, short-sightedness”
Ariely (2009): Predictably Irrational
• Now Identity Economics“Peoples identity defines who
they are..(and this) influences their decisions..”
Akerlof and Kranton (2010): Identity economics
September 16, 2010 Probis Club of Melbourne
Leadership• At all levels: Government Federal, State and
Local, UK, bi-lateral, you
• Industry:– “Look beyond coal, big miner says”– “a clear price on energy”– “Failure to do so will place us at a competitive
disadvantage.• BHP Billiton Marius Kloppers CEO• The Age, September 16, 2010
• You, at home, work, in the community
Human dimensions of What is Possible?
• Capturing of advice– Role of science, media, education
• Nature of scepticism– Experiential versus observational/theoretical views– Scepticism as a tool or a crutch
• Formulation of attitudes– Perception of success– Belief/value structures, religion, cultural, ethos of
sustainability• Basic belief structures
– Conservatisms, consumerism and competition– Vested interests– Managing risk– Perception of risk and probabilities, response to threat– Role of companies, governments and the individual
Based on Härtel and Pearman (2010)
Change ManagementEngineer/physical
scientistPsychologists/social
scientist
Focus Processes, systems People
Business practices
BPR, TQM, ISO9000, quality
Human resources, OD
Starting point
Business issues or opportunities
Personal change, employee resistance (or potential for it)
Measure of success
Metrics of business performance, financial/statistical
Job satisfaction, turnover, productivity loss
Perspective on change
“Shoot the stragglers, carry the wounded”
“Help individuals make sense of what change means to them”
Based on Hiatt (http://www.change-management.com/tutorial-definition-history.htm
Human dimensions of What is Acceptable?• Dealing with uncertainty and probability
– Weighing probabilities, reality and the non-reality world– Acceptance of change versus protection of status quo
• Risk assessment– Capturing opportunities, reluctance to act/change– Concerns/perceived responsibilities for culture and environment
• Sharing responsibility– Government and/or personal or corporate responsibilities– Behavioural and/or institutional change– Technologies and/or behavioural change– Mitigation and/or adaptation
• Perceptions of danger– Value of present and/or future– Perceived values of biodiversity
• Personal responsibility and empowerment– Given “rights”, cultural connections, loss of identity and place– Strategic-ness versus conservativeness
Based on Härtel and Pearman (2010)
Human dimensions of What is Equitable?
• Recognising personal/regional differences in:– Exposure, capacity to adapt mitigate & fund responses– Understanding/awareness of CC & available options– Matching differential exposure to aspirational needs of
the wider community
• Responding with– Formal, workforce and public education– Improved/new management and energy practices– Balance across all sectors and jurisdictions– Changes to personal lifestyles and expectations– Protections in transition for exposed sectors/persons
Based on Härtel and Pearman (2010)
Convergence
Social evolutionSuccess
Social evolution is opportunistic and devoid of strategic direction
Time
Environment
No
relation
to w
here th
e fu
ture m
igh
t best b
eDiversity
Biological evolutionSuccess
Time/selection
Technological opportunities
Social institutions
Hill (2006 p8): What Are Rational Goals For Development?
Dominant view of society
Alternative view of society
Goals Productivity Nourishment, shelter
Profit Fulfilment
Power Sustainability, maintenance
Objective More (no limit) Enough (limit)
Means Growth Balance
Competition Cooperation
Centralisation Decentralisation
Non-renewable resources
Wasted, exhausted Limited, prioritised users
Renewable resources
Degraded Require balance management
The Human Condition
Stressed Joyful
Detached Integrated
Degenerating Evolving
Climate change: Are we up to the challenge?
• What is the climate change issue?• What is it about us that causes this issue?• What is it about us that makes it hard to respond?
• Conclusions
Messages about sustainability
Solutions to the climate change issue depend on:
• Acceptance that we will not know all that we would like to know before action is necessary
– We have to manage the risk
• We need to challenge the largely unconscious drivers of our behaviour, institutions and society
– Commercialism– Advertising– Non-strategic social evolution
Things to do• Understand your “energy” and “water” footprints
–How much you use–From what activities–With what flexibility–It is empowering- you have personal options then
• Set targets of reduction–Monitor power, gas and petroleum bills–Assess $ and carbon savings–Reward success
•Your kids•Your employees
–Be educated/equipped to make better purchases
• Tell others–Especially local and regional Governments–Your teacher, parents, boss
• Above all, examine what it is that is really important
Climate change: A most challenging issue• Diabolical because it is:
– Uncertain in its format and extent– Insidious rather than (as yet) confrontational– Long-term rather than immediate– International as well as national– Dangerous in the absence of effective mitigation
• It results from the very way we are as individuals and the way our societies have evolved– Our aspirations and energy demands– Concepts of what represents ‘success’ and ‘happiness’– Institutional frameworks that influence conformity and
community-wide values
• Solutions depend on changes that potentially threaten those aspirations, belief systems and attitudes