Adaptaon )and)mi&gaon in relaon )to)sustainable) development, … · Adaptaon )and)mi&gaon in...

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Adapta&on and mi&ga&on in rela&on to sustainable development, poverty eradica&on and food security Maria Virginia Vilariño 15 August 2016

Transcript of Adaptaon )and)mi&gaon in relaon )to)sustainable) development, … · Adaptaon )and)mi&gaon in...

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Adapta&on  and  mi&ga&on  in  rela&on  to  sustainable  

development,  poverty  eradica&on  and  food  security  

Maria  Virginia  Vilariño  15  August  2016  

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Implica&ons  for  achieving  1.5oC  on  Sustainable  Development  pathways,  

poverty  eradica&on  and  food  security  

Relevant  findings  in  the  AR5    

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Implica&ons  of  low  emission  pathways  on  sustainable  development  

§  Limited  number  of  studies  have  explored  scenarios  that  are  more  likely  than  not  to  be  less  than  1.5  °C  rela&ve  to  pre-­‐industrial  levels  by  2100  

§  Concentra&ons  below  430  ppm  CO2eq  in  2100  

Source:  AR5  WG3  Technical  Summary  

KF  

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Mi&ga&on  Pathways  &  SD  Pathways  •  There  is  no  single  pathway  –  with  par&cular  socioeconomic,  ins&tu&onal,  

poli&cal,  cultural  and  technological  features-­‐  to  stabilize  CO2eq  concentra9ons  at  any  level    

•  The  impact  of  climate  policy  on  the  over-­‐  all  costs  for  achieving  other  societal  goals  are  less  well  understood  and  have  not  been  assessed  thoroughly  in  the  literature:  

•  energy  and  food  security,  energy  access    •  income  distribu&on  •  distribu&on  of  economic  impacts  •  urban  sprawl  •  other  environmental  factors  associated  with  technologies  •  economic  compe&&veness    

 Source:  AR5  Synthesis  Report  

KF  

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New  since  AR5  2030  Development  Agenda  

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Decarbonisa&on  pathways  influence  the  overall  achievement  of  SDGs  through  policy  responses  

Proposal  for  SR:  Assess  the  impact  of  low  emissions  pathways  on  SDGs  outcomes  

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Low  emission  pathways  &  energy  access  

•  Improvements   in   wealth,   lifestyle   change,   the  provision   of   access   to   modern   energy   services  and   adequate   housing,   and   urbaniza9on   will  drive   the   increases   in   building   energy   demand  (robust  evidence,  high  agreement).    

•  The  manner  in  which  those  energy  needs  are  met  will   influence   the   development   of   related  emissions.    

KF  

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Low  emission  pathways  &  infraestructure  

•  Substan&al  amount  of  new  construc&on  taking  place  in  developing  countries  represents  both  a  risk  and  opportunity  from  a  mi&ga&on  perspec&ve    

•  Low  emission  pathways  will  require  large-­‐scale  changes  to  na&onal  energy  systems  over  the  coming  decades.  

•  Infrastructure  developments  and  long-­‐lived  products  that  lock  socie&es  into  GHG-­‐intensive  emissions  pathways  may  be  difficult  or  very  costly  to  change,  reinforcing  the  importance  of  early  ac&on  for  ambi&ous  mi&ga&on.  

KF  

Source:  AR5  WG3  Technical  Summary  

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Low  emission  pathways  &  Food  security  •  Land-­‐use  dynamics  in  mi&ga&on  scenarios  are  

influenced  by  increased  demand  for  food  and  agricultural  produc&vity  improvements.    

•  Many  scenarios  reflect  strong  increases  in  the  degree  of  compe&&on  for  land  between  food,  feed,  and  energy  uses.    

   •  Demand-­‐side  measures  are  under-­‐researched,  

changes  in  diet,  reduc&ons  of  losses  in  the  food  supply  chain,  and  other  measures  have  a  significant,  but  uncertain,  poten&al  to  reduce  GHG  emissions  from  food  produc&on.  

•  AFOLU  mi&ga&on  op&ons  can  promote  innova&on,  and  many  technological  supply-­‐side  mi&ga&on  op&ons  also  increase  agri-­‐  cultural  and  silvicultural  efficiency,  and  can  reduce  climate  vulner-­‐  ability  by  improving  resilience.    

KF  

Source:  AR5  WG3  Technical  Summary  

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Mi&ga&on  Targets  &  SDG  Targets  

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Mi&ga&on  Targets  &  SDG  Targets  

Proposal  for  SR:  consider  the  interac&ons  and  find  common  targets  between  responses  to  climate  change,  and  efforts  needed  to  achieve  the  sustainable  development  goals.  

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Systemic  and  cross-­‐sectoral  approaches  to  mi&ga&on  are  expected  to  be  more  cost-­‐effec&ve  and  more  effec&ve  in  

cubng  emissions  than  sector-­‐by-­‐sector  policies    

KF  

Source:  AR5  WG3    

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Integrated  approach  linking  with  SDGs  

‘Mainstreaming’  climate  issues  into  the  design  of  comprehensive  SD  strategies  at  regional,  na&onal  and  local    levels.        

KF  

Proposal  for  SR:  assessment  of  development  pathways  going  beyond  a  narrow  focus  on  dis&nct  mi&ga&on  and  adapta&on  op&ons  

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Systemic  and  integrated  approach  linking  with  SDGs    

•  Integrated  approach,  paying  greater  aeen&on  to  governance  and  ins&tu&onal  capacity  shortcomings.  

•  Systemic  approach  o  Food  systems  o  Energy  systems    o  Urban  Systems  (Ci&es)    

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Distribu&onal  implica&ons  of  low  emission  pathways  

 o  In  order  to  reach  atmospheric  concentra9on  levels  of  about  450  to  about  

500ppm  CO2eq  by  2100,  the  majority  of  mi9ga9on  rela9ve  to  baseline  emissions  over  the  course  of  century  will  occur  in  the  non-­‐Organisa9on  for  Economic  Co-­‐opera9on  and  Development  (OECD)  countries  (high  confidence).    

 

 

Proposal  for  SR:  Assess  distribu&onal  implica&on  of  Paris  Agreement  

KF  

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Mind  the  gap  

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Mind  the  gap  

Proposal  for  SR:  How  to  address  the  gap  between  the  aggregate  effect  of  Par&es’  mi&ga&on  pledges  and  the  efforts  needed  to  1.5  °C  gap  together  with  SDGs  gap,  in  the  context  of  

regional/  na&onal  priori&es    

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Make  50%  more  food  available    and  strengthen  the  climate  resilience  of  farming  communi&es  

Reduce  agricultural  and  land-­‐use  change  emissions  from  commercial  agriculture  • By  at  least  3.7  Gt  CO2  eq/yr  by  2030  (50%).    • By  2050:  achieve  a  65%  emissions  reduc&on.  

-­‐50%  

+50%  

Proposal  for  SR:  Take  into  account  and  assess  the  impact  of  ongoing  ini&a&ves  from  private  sector  &  local  governments/  ci&es  


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