Activity Trends for Key Emission Sources in California’s San Joaquin Valley, 1970-2030

Presented by:Stephen B. Reid

Sonoma Technology, Inc.Petaluma, CA

U.S. EPA 16th Annual Emission Inventory ConferenceRaleigh, NC

May 16, 2007

905044.12-2838

2

Outline

BackgroundProject OverviewPreview of Key FindingsMethodologies and ResultsSummary of ResultsQuestions & Discussion

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Emission Projections:Support future-year air quality modeling efforts and control strategy assessmentsAre often generated by tools that rely on economic activity forecasts- Employment- Earnings- Product output

Background (1 of 3)

4

Emission Projection Tools:Emission Growth Analysis System (EGAS)- Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) model- Department of Energy (DOE) energy consumption

forecasts

California Emission Forecasting System (CEFS)- REMI economic models for California counties- More detailed analysis of 50 high priority sources- Input from individual air districts

Background (2 of 3)

5

San Joaquin Valley UnifiedAir Pollution Control District

Background (3 of 3)

6

Scope of work:Review and assess default CEFS growth surrogate assignments for selected sources:

- Civilian Aircraft - Cogeneration- Locomotives - Foam manufacturing- Petroleum refineries - Wine production- Oil & Gas Production - Port of Stockton

Select an appropriate growth surrogate for each source category

Project Overview (1 of 2)

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Scope of work:Develop county-level growth surrogate activity data for the years 1970-2030 in the following increments:

- Every 5 years for 1970 to 1995- Every year for 1990 to 2020- Every five years for 2020 to 2030- Oil & Gas Production

Submit the resulting activity data to ARB for incorporation into CEFS

Project Overview (2 of 2)

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Preview of Findings

2002 2020 Units 2002 2020 Units CEFS STICivilian Aircraft 639,088 752,720 Annual aircraft

operations1,147,801 1,232,009 Annual aircraft

operations17.8% 7.3%

Locomotives 1.315 1.734 Unitless growth factors (based on freight shipments)

31,025,545 37,679,351 Gallons of fuel 31.9% 21.4%

Petroleum Refining (Kern County)

1 1 Unitless (no growth) 115,000 126,300 Barrels per day 0.0% 9.8%

Oil Production 2.09E+08 1.76E+08 Million barrels 206187005 107960406 Million barrels -15.8% -47.6%Natural Gas Production

1.98E+08 2.39E+08 Million cubic feet 217691826 119284563 Million cubic feet 20.9% -45.2%

Cogeneration (Kern County)

0.902 1.216 Output in the oil and gas extraction sector (billions of 1992 dollars)

3240.5 3600.2 Cogeneration capacity (megawatts)

34.8% 11.1%

Source CategoryCEFS Activity Data STI Activity Data % Change

Comparison of CEFS and STI growth activity data

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Civilian Aircraft (1 of 3)

SJV Airports:• 126 non-military facilities• 29 airports included in FAA’s

Terminal Air Forecasts (TAF)• 2004 TAF includes historical

activity back to 1976 and forecasted activity to 2020

• 84% of civilian air traffic in the SJV occurs at one of the 29 airports covered by TAF

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Civilian Aircraft (2 of 3)

Fresno Yosemite International Airport:• Largest in SJV• Published Master Plan

Update in 2005• Plan data and TAF data

agree within 8% and have similar growth rates

• Plan data used for this study

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Civilian Aircraft (3 of 3)

Comparison of CEFS and STI aircraft data

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

Jet Operations - CEFSJet Operations - STIPiston Operations - CEFSPiston Operations - STI

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Locomotives (1 of 4)

SJV Rail Lines:• 2 Class I railroads - Burlington

Northern Sante Fe (BNSF) and Union Pacific (UPRR)

• Several Class III railroads• Amtrak (passenger)

Railroad Type Fuel Consumption (106 gallons) PercentageClass I 193.8 89.1% Passenger 20.4 9.4% Class III 3.3 1.5%

California locomotive fuel consumption –annual average for 2001-2003

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Locomotives (2 of 4)

Fuel Consumption Surrogate• County-level fuel consumption data available from BNSF

for 1999-2004 and for UPRR for 2003• Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) fuel

consumption data for Class I railroads used for historical years back to 1970

• For future years (2005-2030), forecasted growth in economic sectors that dominated rail freight shipments were used to represent growth in rail fuel consumption

• Amtrak projections based on route expansion plans

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Locomotives (3 of 4)

Other prepared food stuffs, fats, and oils 28.50%Non–metallic minerals 11.10%Wood products 9.40%Articles of base metal 7.50%Alcoholic beverages 7.20%Milled grain products and bakery products 6.20%Total manufacturing 69.90%

Petroleum Refining Coal and petroleum products 16.30% California Energy Commission (CEC) refining capacity forecasts

Agriculture Agricultural products 13.80% Irrigated acreage forecasts from the California Dept. of Water Resources; agricultural transport trends from the Nisei Farmer's League

2004 Ton–miles (%) Source of Activity Forecasts

Sector employment data from the California Dept. of Transportation 2002-2020 Economic Forecast

Economic Sector CommodityManufacturing

California rail cargo shipments by economic sector

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Locomotives (4 of 4)

Comparison of CEFS and STI line-haul fuel consumption data

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

Fuel

Use

(mill

ion

gallo

ns)

CEFS

STI Activity Data

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Petroleum Refining (1 of 2)

California refinery inputs, 1985-2025

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Barr

els

per

day

Big West Oil Kern Oil & Refining Co.

San Joaquin Refining Co. Sunland Refining Corp.

Tricor Refining

SJV refinery capacity, 1994-2005

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Petroleum Refining (2 of 2)

SJV refinery capacity, 1970-2030

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

Bar

rels

per

day

SJV Refineries:• Currently operating at

capacity• Big West facility

undergoing expansion- 17% capacity increase- 2 to 4 year process

• Other refineries expected to remain at current capacity

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Oil & Gas Production (1 of 3)

California crude oil receipts by source from 1985 to 2004

California

Other US

Canada

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Mill

ion

cubi

c fe

et p

er d

ay

California natural gas sources from 1980 to 2004

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Oil & Gas Production (2 of 3)

CEFS ForecastsOil production tied to REMI employment in the crude petroleum/natural gas sector and pipeline sectorNatural gas production tied to California Energy Commission (CEC) forecasts and REMI employment in the gas utilities and crude petroleum/natural gas sectors

Replaced with 2005 CEC forecasts based on:Future fuel consumption demand estimatesEstimates of oil and natural gas reserves in CaliforniaAnticipated fuel prices

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Oil & Gas Production (3 of 3)

Comparison of CEFS and STI oil production data

Comparison of CEFS and STI natural gas production data

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

2027

Year

Activ

ity D

ata

- Oil

Prod

uctio

n (b

bl)

Currently in CEFS - Kern Results from this study - Kern

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

2027

Year

Activ

ity D

ata

- Gas

Pro

duct

ion

(Mcf

)

Currently in CEFS - Kern Results from this study - Kern

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Cogeneration (1 of 3)2004 SJV cogeneration capacity by

industry and county

Wood Products

2%

Food Processing

9%

Oil & Gas Extraction

76%

Mining3%

Paper Production

3%

Other7%

San Joaquin9%

Merced1%Kings

1%

Tulare0%

Madera0%

Stanislaus2%

Fresno8%

Kern79%

Background:• On-site electrical generation

at energy-intensive industries or institutions

• Thermal by-products captured for process or space heating; known as “combined heat and power” (CHP)

• In the SJV, 76% of cogeneration capacity used for oil and gas extraction

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Cogeneration (2 of 3)

Historical cogeneration capacity data 1970-2004

Activity Data:• County-level cogeneration

capacity in megawatts (MW) selected as growth surrogate

• Historical capacity data available from Energy and Environmental Analysis (EEA) CHP installation database

• Forecasts available from a 2005 CEC study on statewide cogeneration market potential

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Cog

ener

atio

n C

apac

ity (M

W)

CA SJV

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Cogeneration(3 of 3)

SJV cogeneration capacity by county, 1975-2020

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1975

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

Tota

l cog

en c

apac

ity (M

W) Tulare

Stanislaus

San Joaquin

Merced

Madera

Kings

Kern

Fresno

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1970

1974

1978

1982

1986

1990

1994

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

Coge

n ca

paci

ty (M

W)

STICEFS

Comparison of STI and CEFS cogeneration activity trends for Kern County

Capacity Forecasts:• By utility service region for

2010, 2015 and 2020• Apportioned to SJV and

individual counties based on 2004 data

• By 2020, 1966 MW increase in statewide capacity; 357 MW increase in SJV

• County-level estimates for 2005 to 2020 extrapolated out to 2030

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Summary of Results (1 of 2)

Source Category Growth Surrogate Surrogate Description/Units Data Sources

Civilian Aircraft Aircraft operations Landing, take-off, or touch-and-go

Individual airports, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF), Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) Air Carrier Summary database

Locomotives Locomotive fuel consumption

Gallons consumed by line-haul and switching engines

Individual railroads, BTS freight and fuel consumption data, BTS Commodity Flow Survey, California Department of Transportation economic forecasts

Petroleum Refineries

Refinery capacity Barrels of fuel produced

Individual refineries, California Department of Conservation Division of Oil, Gas, and Geothermal Resources (DOGGR) historical refinery capacity data

Oil Production Crude oil production

Barrels of crude oil produced

Natural Gas Production

Natural gas production

Million cubic feet of gas produced

DOGGR historical production data, California Energy Commission (CEC) forecasts

Cogeneration Electrical generation capacity

Megawatts Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. (EEA) cogeneration capacity database, CEC forecasts

Selected growth surrogates by source category

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Summary of Results (2 of 2)

2002 2020 Units 2002 2020 Units CEFS STICivilian Aircraft 639,088 752,720 Annual aircraft

operations1,147,801 1,232,009 Annual aircraft

operations17.8% 7.3%

Locomotives 1.315 1.734 Unitless growth factors (based on freight shipments)

31,025,545 37,679,351 Gallons of fuel 31.9% 21.4%

Petroleum Refining (Kern County)

1 1 Unitless (no growth) 115,000 126,300 Barrels per day 0.0% 9.8%

Oil Production 2.09E+08 1.76E+08 Million barrels 206187005 107960406 Million barrels -15.8% -47.6%Natural Gas Production

1.98E+08 2.39E+08 Million cubic feet 217691826 119284563 Million cubic feet 20.9% -45.2%

Cogeneration (Kern County)

0.902 1.216 Output in the oil and gas extraction sector (billions of 1992 dollars)

3240.5 3600.2 Cogeneration capacity (megawatts)

34.8% 11.1%

Source CategoryCEFS Activity Data STI Activity Data % Change

Comparison of CEFS and STI growth activity data

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Questions and

Discussion

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