Acknowledging SATREPS

COP17 theme?

Comparison: 1 km and 200 m February diurnal temperature cycle

TORNADO SUNDAY

Hundreds of homes were destroyed in Ficksburg in the Free State. Another tornado hit the East Rand and caused extensive damage to Duduza, near Nigel. Two children died.

HEAT WAVE: 9-13 NOVEMBER 2011(AT MY HOUSE: 33; 33.5; 31; 32.5; 33.5°C)

Verification of CCAM AMIP: Limpopo

ROC Scores: Coupled vs. 2-tiered systems

NEW OPERATIONAL APPROACHES

NCEP/GFS

Model Output StatisticsAtmospheric ICs

Boundary ConditionsResolution ~200km

15 km Probabilistic weather forecasts:• Two cloud schemes• LAF updated every 6 hours

A NEW INITIATIVE ON NWP?? To revolutionize numerical weather

prediction (NWP) modelling, research and operations

Themes may include: Optimal model configuration Process studies Applications modelling Model development Initialization strategies Parameterization Atmosphere-ocean coupling Verification

A GOOD BOOK ON WX AND CC TO GET:

“Climate is what you expect, but weather is what you get”