Access to markets, technologies, and services

Spatial Data and Analytics (SDA) Team IFPRI

Expert Consultation on “Methodology for an information system on rural livelihoods and Sustainable Development Goals indicators on smallholder productivity and income”

FAO-HQ | November 7, 2016

Overview

Introduction

Who/what are we after (that is, our users)?

Current status of “access to…” indicators

Some suggestions based on household surveys

Some suggestions based on spatial data

Conclusions and discussion points

Introduction -general

SDG 2.3 -> Double agr. productivity and incomesVolume of production per labor unit; Average income of small-scale food producers

Monitoring SDGs with existing data initiatives, is it really possible (scale, time, frequency, definition, quality,…)?

AGRIS, GRAInS, Global Survey Hub

RIGA ->mostly SSA/LSMS-ISA; sparsely updated to 2005/6 for Asia and LAC

Smallholder-farmers Dataportrait -> spin-off from SOFA 2014; quite rigid and general

Rural Livelihoods (Monitor) -> helpful if well-maintained, continuously updated, revised, flexible, comprehensive (area covered), spatial-explicit, building from existing initiatives, going beyond SDG 2 for potential buy-in from others

Introduction -RuLIS RuLIS

1. Information system…with one point in time (for most indicators)?2. Information system/2…needs higher spatial coverage3. Social, shocks, health, and nutrition indicators? Potentially informing many other SDGs4. Qualifier stratum? (And more, let’s discuss)5. Tab cross-tab? (Essential)6. Maps spatial distribution? (Needs to be high for local policy-making)7. Output needs better formatting, more clarity8. Add’l functionalities

Who/what are we after?We aim to answer two fundamental questions: 1) What are the most frequent users of RuLIS?

– International donors (due to low spatial coverage)

– Researchers, practitioners

– Local policy makers

2) What are they mostly looking for?– Overview data

– Specific, local data

– Correlation, association, causality/causation

Current status of “access to…” indicators % of population with access to credit, phone, safe water, ag. training or

extension Avg community distance (km) from services (bank, road, bus stop, school, post

office, health facility, microfinance institution, market,…) % of communities with services (bank, road, school,…) % of communities located > 5km from services (bank, road, school,…)

Mostly based on LSMS community Qx. Underutilized? Yes, but:1. Definition of community varies a lot across country (20 hhs to 400 hhs)2. What do they actually tell us about household-specific access to market,

technologies, and services?3. What about surveys with no community Qx? (The majority…)4. Access to technologies and extension services too vaguely defined

Some suggestions based on household surveys• Use travel time rather than distance whenever possible (at least takes into account

slope, elevation, road network and quality, geographical boundaries)• Partnering with other efforts, such as IFPRI’s:

Some suggestions based on household surveys

http://tools.harvestchoice.org/subnatpov/

Some suggestions based on household surveysDHS harmonizationUsing DHS surveys in 69 countries worldwide (1990-2014), representative at regional and urban/rural levels, child gender-disaggregated indicators computed:

–54 anthropometrics-related–57 DDS and food-intake–120 illness-related–45 antenatal-related–36 IYCF practices–6 vitamin A and iron supplementation–6 child & infant mortality rates–6 hemoglobin-related–6 tetanus-related

Some suggestions based on spatial data• Again, partnering with other efforts, such as IFPRI’s:

-Arab Spatial: arabspatial.org

-HarvestChoice: harvestchoice.org

Some suggestions based on spatial data

Bio-physical land use, soils, climate,

pests (IIASA, CRU, USGS, UMN, AgMIP)

ProductionSPAM

FAOSTAT, FAO/IIASA GAEZ suitability,

irrigation

Socio-Economicdemography, poverty,

factor productivity(Landscan, GRUMP,

LSMS-ISA, census, DHS)

Markets,Infrastructure

road networks, land cover, elevation

Data harmonization

Up/down scaling

Calibration

HarvestChoice CELL5Mcatalog of 750+ spatial rasters (5-arc-minute/10 km grid)

MAPPR TABLR LSMS-ISA, FAOSTAT

Map/Tile Service (WMS)

CGIAR and BMGF Project Mapping Tool

Africa RISING PMMT

FAOSTAT Fenix

HarvestChoice

Website

Other Models,

Calculators

Time-series spatial indicators (district records)

Data API (RESTful)

What’s HarvestChoice?

Accessibility modeling

The GIS spatial model estimates market accessibility (time, cost) in rural areas

Takes into account (from multiple sources): infrastructure, human settlements, biophysical parameters, and land cover types.

Some suggestions based on spatial data

• Adding new/missed road

• Fixing geometry• Improving

accuracy• Adding road

attributes• ……

Continuous efforts on data collection and harmonization so as to keep pace with the rapid changes in SSA.

Main model and its by-products applied in studies of various scales from continental (5min, 2010) to regional (<=1km).

Some suggestions based on spatial dataAccessibility modeling

Spatial disaggregation of statistical data

other data

41998 (ha)Statistics

Irrigated areas

Cropland

Rural Population

GAEZ area/yield

Irrigated area of crop

Rainfed (h + l + s) area of crop 10 km pix

41 998 (ha)

Some suggestions based on spatial data

Conclusions and discussion points/1General• RuLIS would need to be improved and expanded along the dimensions

considered (higher coverage; social, shocks, health, and nutrition indicators; greater flexibility; add’l qualifiers; cross-tab; spatial-disaggregation; better formatting; more clarity)

• Partnering with existing data efforts crucial for sustainability and success

• Expanding to additional data sources (HICE, HBS) and types (DHS, spatial)

• Calculation method, assumptions, definition of the indicators of course important, but task for dedicated working groups, less for meeting participants

Conclusions and discussion points/2Access to markets,…indicators(hh-survey)• Moving from physical distance to travel time• Moving from community- to household-based estimates• Definition of access to technologies and services too vague• Use travel time rather than distance whenever possible• Define the extent of the community • What do to with surveys with no community Qx?

(spatial data)• Partnering with other efforts, such as arabspatial and HarvestChoice,

especially on the market accessibility layer and crop production

Thank you!

ElevationSlope, aspect, drainageSettlements, ports, marketsRoad, rail, river, ICT networksMarket travel times & costs

Agriculture, Productivity and Welfare in AfricaSpatial Patterns of Determinants, Covariates, Proxies & Impacts

Port travel times & costs

Terrain, Demography,

Infrastructure, Admin Units

ProductionEnvironment &

Constraints

Interventions/Responses

Administrative Units Agroecological ZonesCropland extent & intensityPests & Diseases (Maize Stem Borer)Drought Incidence & SeverityRunoff

ProductionSystems &

Performance

Farming SystemsCrop Suitability: Rainfed WheatCrop Distribution & YieldsValue of Production per Rural Person

NA

010

2030

40

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

100 80 60 40 20 0

IrrigationThreshold

% of AvailableSoil Water

MaizeYield

Potentialt[DM]/ha

Fertilizer Application Ratekg[N]/ha

Yield Responses to Inputs, Management, CCProfitability of small scale irrigationQuantity of Nutrients RemovedFertilizer ProfitabilityDistribution of Welfare Benefits

Linkage toGlobal

Analyses

Macro Model Spatial Units

* Note: Many of these layers can be found at the HarvestChoice Data at http://harvestchoice.org/data