IFPRI - Cooling Effect of Pulse Imports on Domestic Prices, Raj Chandra, IFPRI
IFPRI- Pulses in Pakistan for Food and Nutritional Security, Stephen Davies, IFPRI
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PULSES IN PAKISTAN FOR FOOD AND NUTRITIONAL SECURITY Stephen Davies, Saqib Shahzad and Wajiha Saeed A Presentation to the Pulses for Sustainable Agriculture and Human Health Conference New Delhi, India May 31, 2016
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Transcript of IFPRI- Pulses in Pakistan for Food and Nutritional Security, Stephen Davies, IFPRI
PULSES IN PAKISTAN FOR FOOD AND NUTRITIONAL SECURITY
Stephen Davies, Saqib Shahzad and Wajiha Saeed
A Presentation to the Pulses for Sustainable Agriculture and Human Health Conference
New Delhi, India
May 31, 2016
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Pulses Situation in Pakistan
There has been almost no growth or fractional growth of food legumes in last 30 years (GOP 2006; GOP 2008).
Major pulses grown in Pakistan include desi chickpeas (gram), lentils (masoor), mung beans, black matpe (mash beans).
Mostly cultivation of pulses are on marginal lands and rain-fed areas.
Important source of protein with increasing demand due to population growth in Pakistan.
Less use of fertilizer in pulses - specially in chickpea.
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Pulses Situation in Pakistan (contd.)
Chickpea can perform well under conditions of moisture stress in marginal soils.
The Thal desert cannot support major cash crops due to low fertility and lack of irrigation, is called the “home of chickpea”.
Cultivation of Mungbean is concentrated in Punjab and in Kharif season (July October). About 75% cultivation follows mungbean - wheat crop rotation.
Source: http://old.parc.gov.pk/1SubDivisions/NARCCSI/CSI/pulses.html
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Pulses Situation in Pakistan (contd.)
Chickpea and lentils compete in the Rabi season with wheat for limited water supplies.
Wheat uses 24 MAF of canal water out of total of 31.4 MAF available in Rabi, so little water is available for food legumes.
Wheat yield is 2.45 tons/ha against food legumes yield of 0.429 tons/ha for chickpea and 0.723 tons/ha for mung beans.
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A GRAPHICAL TOUR
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0
200
400
600
800
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1200
1400
1600
1800
Years
Area and Production of Pulses in Pakistan
Area (000 hectares)
Production (000 tonnes)
Linear (Area (000 hectares))
Linear (Production (000 tonnes))
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400
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1600
1800
Years
Production and Total Supply of Major Pulses in Pakistan
Production (000 tonnes)
Total Supply (P + I)
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300
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500
600
700
800
900 K
gs
/ H
ec
tare
Years
Yields of Major Pulses in Pakistan
Gram
Mash
Mung
Linear (Gram)
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Wh
ea
t P
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s P
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Years
Real Prices of major Pulses and Wheat
Gram
Mung
Wheat
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The Supply of Pulses in Pakistan
Tend to behave as subsistence crops • Supply not always responsive to own-price (esp. Gram &
Maash)
Grown mostly in areas with low-intensity cropping • Cropping-intensity found to have a negative effect on
pulse production
Lack of R&D related to pulses and/or prioritization by govt. are possible reasons • Pulses except Mung had a negative trend coefficient over
the period 1970-93
• Turned positive more recently
• Mung may be benefitting
Sources: Ali and Abedullah (1998); Rani et. al. (2014).
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The Supply of Pulses in Pakistan (contd.)
Investments in irrigation at the national level have not benefitted pulses
• Negative or no association with increased irrigation overall
• But positive association with rainfall & own area under irrigation
Greater weather risks negatively effects all pulses but not Gram
Higher wages have negative effect on pulse production as well
• Suggests need for improving varieties (to have synchronized maturity) and mechanization to reduce labor-intensity of harvest
Sources: Ali and Abedullah (1998); Rani et. al. (2014).
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The Demand for Pulses in Pakistan
Pulses have been shown to have high demand elasticity (0.6 to 0.8)
• Much higher price elasticity than wheat (~0.3)
• Comparable to higher-quality foods (milk, meat, rice)
• Though, more recent study suggests it is low (for Mung and Gram)
Pulses generally perceived to be inferior goods: not preferred at higher income levels
• Found to be not exactly true: consistently found to have positive income elasticities
Sources: Ali and Abedullah (1998); Rani et. al. (2014).
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The Demand for Pulses in Pakistan (contd.) May be substitutes for milk & fruit (particularly
Mungbean)
Either independent of cereals or complementary; Gram possibly a substitute of wheat (disagreement across studies)
Found to complement vegetables and meat (Lentil was the exception which substitutes for these)
Income and population pressures can be expected to continue to exert demand pressures on pulses
Sources: Ali and Abedullah (1998); Rani et. al. (2014).
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Wheat procurement price has possible negative effects on pulses growth
Some dimensions in Mung Bean, possibly from R&D
More consistent import program might raise consumption
Possible programs to raise yields in dryland areas could be pro-poor and might reduce Malnutrition
Conclusions
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References
Mubarik Ali and Abedullah. 1998. “Supply, demand, and policy environment for Pulses in Pakistan”. Pakistan Development Review 37:1.
Saima Rani, Hassnain Shah, Umar Farooq and Bushra Rehman. (2014). “Supply, demand, and policy environment for Pulses in Pakistan”. Pakistan J. Agric. Res. Vol. 27 No.2.
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