ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by...

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ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE [email protected] From SOFREAVIA Consulting and Support Studies

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Page 1: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1

ACAC Study of ATM-CNS

Presentationat

ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabatby

Michel [email protected]

FromSOFREAVIA

Consulting and Support Studies

Page 2: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 2

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSPresentation at ACAC Seminar 2005

Overall Study Presentation

Training issues

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Institutional issues

ACAC Roadmap

Page 3: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 3

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSOverall study approach

WP1: Data Collection & forecast evolutions

Data collection

Traffic AnalysisService Evolution

Scenarios

Airspace Organisation Scenario

WP2: CNS Implementation Issues

Foreseen CNS Services

ATC & CNS Infrastructure Scenario

Aircraft Equipment Requirements

WP3: Training needs

Assessment of staffing needs

Identification of training needs

Training Program and Cost

WP4: Cost Benefit Analysis

Equipment Costs Training Costs

Assessment of operational benefits

WP6: Implementation

Roadmap

Deployment

Program

Training

Program

Consolidated CBA ATM/CNS Roadmap

WP5: Institutional issues

Analysis of existing arrangements

Recommended approach

Schedule for new framework

Phase 1

Phase 2

Page 4: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 4

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSApproach for Phase 1 (1/2)

WP1: Data Collection & forecast evolutions

Data collection

Traffic AnalysisService Evolution

Scenarios

Airspace Organisation Scenario

Traffic data &growth rate forecast

Data on services & infrastructure

Route network & airspace structure

Typology ofservice areas

Optimisednetwork &airspace

Traffic &fleet data

Fleet

data

Questionnaire

Page 5: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 5

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSApproach for Phase 1 (2/2)

WP2: CNS Implementation Issues

Foreseen CNS Services

ATC & CNS Infrastructure Scenario

Aircraft Equipment Requirements

ATM ServicesWP1

Regional & National Plans

Existing InfrastructureWP1

Aircraft CNSequipment

ATS CNSequipment

Concept ofoperation forATM/CNS

Page 6: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 6

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSApproach for Phase 2 (1/3)

WP3: Training needs

Assessment of staffing needs

Identification of training needs

Training Program and Cost

WP5: Institutional issues

Analysis of existing arrangements

Recommended approach

Schedule for new framework

Staffing data fromquestionnaires

ATC service leveland forecast numbers

of sectors from phase 1

information fromquestionnaires

Input for WP4 (CBA) Input for WP6 (Roadmap)

Page 7: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 7

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSStudy approach for Phase 2 (2/3)

WP4: Cost Benefit Analysis

Equipment Costs Training Costs

Assessment of operational benefits

Consolidated CBA

Input on cost from WP3

CNS-ATM Agendafrom phase 1

Consolidation ofservices and priorities

ACAC fleetfrom phase 1

Forecast trafficfrom phase 1

Agendarevisionsfor WP6

Current classicalequipment

Page 8: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 8

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSStudy approach for Phase 2 (3/3)

WP6: ImplementationRoadmap

Deployment

ProgramTraining

Program

ATM/CNS Roadmap

Input on schedule from WP3

CNS-ATM Agendafrom phase 1

Agenda

revisionsfrom WP4

Input on schedule from WP5

Synch.

Page 9: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 9

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSPresentation at ACAC Seminar 2005

Overall Study Presentation

Training issues

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Institutional issues

ACAC Roadmap

Page 10: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 10

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSHuman Resource in CNS-ATM transition

This aspect is addressed in 4 steps:

1°) identifying short term quantitative and qualitative shortages of Human Resources needed for providing satisfying classical ATS

2°) develop recommendations for those States that would need to implement a « catch-up programme » in recruitment and training by 2007-2008

3°) determine the evolution of HR needs at the 2020 time horizon, based on current operational practices (baseline scenario)

3°) determine the evolution of HR needs at the 2020 time horizon, based on the widespread introduction of advanced ATM/CNS means and associated new procedures (CNS-ATM scenario)

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ACAC Study 16 September 2005 11

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSController training

It takes about 2 years to train a controller ab initio (9 months for non-radar initial training + 12 months for radar training), and it takes about 3 months to train a qualified non-radar controller to a radar environment (OJT for re-qualification not included)

The training of qualified controllers to advanced CNS/ATM procedures would take 2 to 3 months (depending whether they are already radar-qualified or not)The assumption is made that all controllers are radar-qualified

The overall cost estimate for the additional training of ACC and TMAcontrollers to ATM/CNS procedures encompasses:

• The training cost of newly recruited controllers, &• The training cost of all the controllers still operational in 2010

Overall training budget for air traffic controllers (PV) is in the order of 10 MUSD

Page 12: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 12

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSTraining of other staff

The other personnel categories to be considered are:

- Technical support staff:• The technical staff in support of ATS operations consists of engineers and technicians that represent 54 % of the number of controllers (EUROCONTROL PRU data)• Initial training course of 2 weeks on a broad technical overview of CNS-ATM evolutions• The overall training budget for Technical support staff (PV) is in the order of 1.2 MUSD

- Managers:• The number of managers is estimated on the basis of 3 people per ACC or main international airport (typically one head and two deputies)• 2 to 6 weeks programmes of conferences and visits preparing them for the challenges of migrating to CNS-ATM-based services• The overall training budget for Managers (PV) is in the order of 1.9 MUSD

- Pilots:• the number of pilots to be trained to CNS-ATM procedures is derived from the ACAC fleet

structure as determined earlier in this study (only modern aircraft are considered)• 5 pilot-copilot crews (10 pilots) are assumed per long range aircraft and 4 pilot-copilot crews (8 pilots) per short-medium range aircraft• Two courses: starting 2009, en-route GNSS RNAV and APV approaches, then from 2013 ASAS procedures (unit cost equivalent to the one for ATC)• The overall training budget for Pilots (PV) is in the order of 85.3 MUSD

Page 13: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 13

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSImpact on costs

The global CNS/ATM-specific training costs in the CNS-ATM scenario Are presented in the following table :

Training cost PV (USD)

Costs for ANSP :ATCO 10,0Technical support staff 1,2Managers 1,9Total Costs PV 13,1

Costs for Airlines :Pilots 85,3Total Costs PV 85,3

Total Training Costs PV (USD) 98,4

Page 14: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 14

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSPresentation at ACAC Seminar 2005

Overall Study Presentation

Training issues

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Institutional issues

ACAC Roadmap

Page 15: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 15

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSCBA Approach

The approach of the CBA study is to define:1°) the starting point for ATM-CNS equipment and human resources (after a minimum catch-up programme completed by 2007-2008)Catch-up programme: list of urgent CNS improvements in 4 countries(Libya, Sudan, Syria, Yemen) based on the state of their infrastructure towards the end of 2003

2°) a « business as usual » baseline scenario consisting only in replacing and expanding classical infrastructure as required by traffic growth without changing the way the services are provided

3°) a CNS-ATM transition scenario consisting in progressively replacing the classical infrastructure and services by CNS-ATM solutions

4°) the additional costs and the benefits yielded by a CNS-ATM scenario when compared with the « business as usual » baseline scenario

Page 16: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 16

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSScope of the CBA

Current ACAC Airspace StructureProposed ACAC Airspace Structure

In the CNS-ATM scenario

Upper Airspace Upper Airspace

Lower Airspace Lower Airspace

The CBA will only deal with the upper airspace and the main TMA (area coloured in orange in the scheme), as regards ATC staff dimensioning and benefits calculation (economically, the rest of the airspace is negligible)

Main TMA Main TMA Main TMA

Main TMA

SmallTMA

SmallTMA

Airspace

Page 17: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 17

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSWP4: CBA Results (Global point of view)

The CNS-ATM scenario entails additional costs in terms of aircraft equipment and ANSPcost (GNSS costs, ATCO and support staff training), which are more than compensated by savings in classical infrastructure and operational benefits related to en route and TMAnavigation and the reduction of future airspace congestion delays in some areas.

GNSSCosts<125

MUSD

A/C Eq.Costs

<280 MUSD ANSPCNS Eq.Savings

>105 MUSD

En routeBenefits

>385 MUSD

TMA Opsbenefits

>30 MUSD

ATFMDelay reduc.>165 MUSD

ANS HRCosts< 13

MUSD

ANSP costs and savings to be covered by route chargesFigures represent Present Values over the period 2005-2020

Airlines costs and benefits

+ 191 MUSD

504 USD

696 M USDA/L HRCosts< 86

MUSD

Page 18: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 18

ACAC Study of ATM-CNS

WP4: CBA Results (ANSPs point of view) (2/2)From the ANSP point of view,The objective is to balance costsby charges :

GNSSCosts

125.3 MUSD

AdditionalHR training

Costs13.1 MUSD

Figures represent Present Values over the period 2005-2020

+ 0 M USD

Additional expensesAdditional expenses Savings and additional revenuesSavings and additional revenues

AdditionalCharges:? MUSD

Additional charges : 32.1 M USDGlobal increase in route charges estimated at 0.7 %

ANSPCNS Eq.Savings

106.3 MUSD

Page 19: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 19

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSWP4: CBA Results (ACAC airlines viewpoint) (2/2)

From the airlines point of view, restricted to ACAC-based companies:If we consider that the ACAC airlines represents only 50% of the total traffic (i. e. they pay only50% of the ANSP costs, but get only 50% of the operational benefits) and fly about 30% of the timein the ACAC area (thus having to amortize there about 30% of their aircraft equipment and training cost) the figures for ACAC airlines alone are significantly positive:

ACACShare of

A/C eq. costamortization<85 MUSD

ACAC fleetOperational

Benefits >311 MUSD

Additionalcharges

< 20 MUSD

> 180 M USD

ACACA/L HRCosts< 26

MUSD

Page 20: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 20

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSPresentation at ACAC Seminar 2005

Overall Study Presentation

Training issues

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Institutional issues

ACAC Roadmap

Page 21: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 21

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSInstitutional issues (1/8)

Subregional Civil Aviation entities may play a combination of three different roles on behalf of their Member States:

Functional role EUROCONTROL EASA ASECNA COCESNA ACAC

Coordination YES YES YES limited limited

Operational YES (*) NO YES YES NO

Regulatory YES (**) YES NO NO NO

(*) global for ATFM (CFMU is agency-operated) and AIM (EAD is privately operated), and through additional protocols between groups of states for MUACC and CEATS

(**) enhanced role owing to mandates from the Single European Sky Committee to develop Implementing Rules and Community Specifications

Page 22: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 22

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSInstitutional issues (2/8)

ACACGeneral Assembly(all Member States)

Executive Council(5 Member States

for 2 years)

General Directorate(2 renewable years)

Air TransportCommittee

(7 experts for 2 years)

Air SafetyCommittee

(7 experts for 2 years)

Air NavigationCommittee

(7 experts for 2 years)

Arab League(all Member States)

Politicalauthority

and financialsupervision

Adoption of the Work ProgrammeAdoption of DG and EC ReportsAdministrative & Financial Rules

Day-to-day managementand implementation of

General Assembly decisions

election

election

Specialised Committees

election

Page 23: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 23

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSInstitutional issues (3/8)

ACACGeneral Assembly(all Member States)

Executive Council(5 Member States

for 2 years)

General Directorate(2 renewable years,a 4 year mandate isUnder discussion)

Air TransportCommittee

(7 experts for 2 years)

Air SafetyCommittee

(7 experts for 2 years)

Air NavigationCommittee

(7 experts for 2 years)

Arab League(all Member States)

Approval ofnew financialInstruments

(if any)

Adoption of the Work ProgrammeAdoption of DG and EC ReportsAdministrative & Financial Rules

Day-to-day managementand implementation of

General Assembly decisions

election

election

Specialised Committees

New mandate(s)

Preliminary analysis: as of today, ACAC has no mandate as an operational Agency enabled to acton behalf of its Member States to provide services or negotiate service provision by third partiesNew mandates for the Air Navigation Committee can be approved by the Executive Council then theGeneral Assembly.For any activities requiring new financial instruments, approval by the Arab League CoordinationCommittee is necessary (followed by submission to the Social and Economic Council)

Page 24: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 24

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSInstitutional issues (4/8)

Based on the findings of our study, potential areas of intervention for ACAC are:

•The harmonisation of the Upper Airspace (and of FUA policies)

•The creation, in the medium-long term, of some operational entities • a CRCO-like entity for collecting route charges, • a CFMU-like entity in the MID area, • an EAD-like entity for AIS collection and distribution

but no common Area Control Centre

• The joint representation of ACAC States for negotiating service level agreements with external GNSS and SatCom operators

• the development and monitoring of CNS-ATM plans in coordination with adjacent infra-regional entities (such as ASECNA, EAC etc.)

Page 25: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 25

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSInstitutional issues (5/8)

A first step is to strengthen as needed the institutional statute of ACACso as to allow its Air Navigation Commission to take up a new role as CNS/ATM co-ordinator for the whole area

A second step is to develop new institutional arrangements enablingACAC to receive mandates from its members for undertaking variousactivities on their behalf

Page 26: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 26

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSInstitutional issues (6/8)

Three key limitations of existing ACAC arrangements are:

- its lack of financial autonomy- the absence of a comprehensive representation mandate- the absence of any regulatory role for supporting the enforcement of ICAO standards amongst member states

The most ambitious scenario for ACAC is to create a new agency for co-ordinating efforts and external negotiations, in all of the ATM domains, but stopping short of providing operational ATC services on behalf of its states (ie a Eurocontrol-like entity without Maastricht and CEATS, but possibly with its own CFMU set-up for the MID area, and possibly other common service entities)

Page 27: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 27

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSInstitutional issues (7/8)

This can be implemented gradually:

•First, some exploratory mandates can be given to the Air Navigation Committee or to the General Directorate

•Then a group of States can request some ACAC support for them to create a joint undertaking in a given area or undertake negociations in a specific area

•Finally, an ACAC-derived Agency can be set-up to take responsibility for

certain services on behalf of the participating Member States

In certain fields of activity (especially AIM and ATFM) this third step could provide a clear operational added value to the actions of individual States

For the sake of transition management the « old » ACAC structure should continue to exist after the new Agency is created (like the JAA after the creation of EASA)

Page 28: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 28

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSInstitutional issues (8/8)

With respect to the various areas already identified, our initial recommendations are:

• Upper Airspace Harmonisation: mandate ACAC ANC to assist Member States in defining an airspace structure based on a specific sectorisation for the Upper Airspace, an FUA policy and optimised interfaces with the main TMAs (the responsibility for implementation shall remain with the States)• ATFM: mandate ACAC ANC to draft a medium term plan for establishing a MID ATFM Unit to be staffed and funded by MID States (it is foreseen that for some other countries like Morocco, ATFM is principally a matter of co-ordination with the CFMU)• AIS: mandate ACAC ANC to draft a plan for a joint Aeronautical Information entity in charge of gathering and distributing AIP on behalf of the participating States (this is one of the first areas where ACAC-wide Service Provision mechanisms could be put in place)• GNSS: mandate ACAC ANC to co-ordinate service level negotiations between Member States and GNSS Service Providers (FAA, GJU etc.) and provide a common framework for conducting safety analyses• Route Charges: mandate ACAC General Directorate to analyse and compare the charge collection mechanisms currently in application (CRCO, IATA, National) and draft a plan to establish a single common mechanism for ATM cost recovery, including the possibility of allocating a fraction of the fund collected to a transnational Agency

Page 29: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 29

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSPresentation at ACAC Seminar 2005

Overall Study Presentation

Training issues

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Institutional issues

ACAC Roadmap

Page 30: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 30

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSRoadmap for new services and advanced CNS/ATM technologies

Services and Technologies proposed

Service/Technology

Corresponding Global Trend

Requirements 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Deployment of a VSAT network

Training for ATCOs

Agreements between adjacent ACCs on a radar coverage redundancy

Silent transfers inter-ACC

Determination of areas where terrestrial ADS-B is unfeasible or not cost-effective

Migration from Inmarsat-3 towards Inmarsat-4

FIS-B capable aircraft

ADS-B capable aircraft

Training for pilots

FIS-B applicationsAir-ground ADS-B applications

FDM capable aircraft

D-FIS capable aircraft

Migration from Inmarsat-3 towards Inmarsat-4

Training for ATCOs

Training for pilots

FDM applications in Saudi Arabia, Emirates and BahreinFDM applications in Egypt

KEY MILESTONES DCL applications in main airportsD-FIS applications

CPDLC systems for oceanic traffic from/to AsiaCPDLC systems for overflight traffic in the Sahara region

SatCom/VDL-M2

Satellite-based & VDL-based

communications

G-C2

A-S1

A-C1, A-C2

Mobile air-ground point-to-point communicationsfor CPDLC, D-FIS, FDM, DCL, D-ATIS

Modern ground-ground communications for the exchange of AIS and FIS, coordination inter-ACC, distribution of radar surveillance information

Mobile broadcast communicationsfor FIS-B, ADS-B

Page 31: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 31

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSPlanning for infrastructure deployment/decommissioning

<05 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 >20

Ground equipment

Global trend Infrastructure Proposed Evolution Particular Comments Mediterranean RIMSahara desert

COMMUNICATION MID area

not useda few kept as back-upa few kept as back-up

increase : already planned & catch-up program increase : already planned & catch-up program increase : catch-up program

increase : catch-up program

G-C1

G-C2

Generalization of VSAT links except in countries with good ground fixed Com

services

Use of one way mobile SatCom for

provision of AIS

VSAT links

VSAT station

HF

VHF

Leased Linescompleted by VSAT links for data or voice based ground communications, AMHS and SatCom

Replacement by Digital Com (SatCom or VDL-M2)

Aeronautical Informations broadcast by datalink instead of VHF (SatCom or VDL-M2)

Used to cope with increasing needs in communications and data sharing

Used for Int'l links, to replace AFTN links & for radar info sharing

-10%+55%

-10%

-25%

+20% -30%

+30%-15%

+5% -25%

22 new stations

16 new stations

39 new stations

-40% -40%-70%

30 new VSAT links

20 new VSAT links

65 new VSAT links

<05 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 >20

Aircraft equipment

Global trend Infrastructure Global evolution Comments Forward fitRetrofit

COMMUNICATION

A-C1

A-C2

Use of Digital Com

Modernisation of Communications means

For the deployment of ADS-C, CPDLC & D-FIS applications

VDL-M2 technology

SatCom technology Replace the deployment of VDL technology

100% equipped

100% equipped

Page 32: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 32

ACAC Study of ATM-CNS

Thank you for your attention

Page 33: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 33

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSPresentation at ACAC Seminar 2005

ADDITIONAL MATERIAL

Page 34: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 34

ACAC Study of ATM-CNS

CBA Sensitivity Analysis

The upper bar, in the figure below, illustrates the results for the sensitivity analysis on the different assumptions presented (deployment on the ground, aircraft equipment, assumptions for benefits calculation).

The second bar illustrates the sensitivity analysis on the Time Discount Rate (TDR).

141.0 MUSD{TDR=10%}

136.8 MUSD{Low assumptions}

264.2 MUSD{TDR=5%}

713.7 MUSD{High assumptions}

0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0 700,0 800,0

184.7 MUSD{Nominal assumptions & TDR=8%}

Sensitivity analysis on deployment scenarios and assumptions for benefits

calculation

Sensitivity analysis on the TDR

Page 35: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 35

ACAC Study of ATM-CNS

CBA Sensitivity analysis (Airlines viewpoint)

The figure below illustrates the results for 2 sensitivity analysis from the Airlines point of view. The sensitivity analysis were conducted on :

- Different charging rate by the ANSPs; and

- Different depreciation rate for the Airlines

152.8 MUSD{Charges : 45%}

147.2 MUSD{Depreciation : 35%}

211.1 MUSD{Charges : 55%}

183.8 MUSD{Depreciation : 25%}

0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0

181.9 MUSD{Charges : 50% & Depreciation : 30%}

Sensitivity analysis on the

Depreciation Rate

Sensitivity analysis on the

Charging Rate

Page 36: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 36

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSStaffing level required for Upper Airspace Sectors

Assumptions :

• The number of sectors foreseen in 2010 and 2020 (as defined In Phase 1) have been used to determine recruitment and training needs for every country

• 1 H24 sector requires up to 15 controllers in the staff (11 operational + 3 for training and studies and 1 for management activities)

in 2005 in 2010 in 2020

Algeria 2 2 3Bahrain 2 3 3Egypt 2 3 3

Emirates 2 2 3Iraq - - -

Jordan 1 1 1Kuweit - - -

Lebanon 1 1 1Libya 2 2 2

Morocco 2 2 3Oman 2 2 2

Pal.Gaza - - -Qatar - - -

Saudi Arabia 5 6 6Sudan 2 3 3Syria 1 2 2

Tunisia 1 1 2

Yemen 1 1 1

TOTAL 26 31 35

Number of Upper Airspace sectors

Page 37: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 37

ACAC Study of ATM-CNS

Source column : ‘E’ = from ENAC ; ‘S’ = (Sof) based on data from General questionnaire; ‘Q’ = from detailed HR questionnaire

The yearly recruitment needs takes into account staff renewal due to career evolutions.

Staffing level required for Upper Airspace sectors

in 2005 in 2010 in 2020 2005 and 2010 2010 and 2020

Algeria E 85 2 2 3 - 6 45 5Bahrain S 41 2 3 3 11 11 17 6Egypt Q 85 2 3 3 - - 23 -

Emirates Q 42 2 2 3 - 12 8 2Iraq - -

Jordan Q 34 1 1 1 - - 14 5Kuweit - -

Lebanon S 12 1 1 1 4 4 5 1Libya S 85 2 2 2 - - 34 12

Morocco S 85 2 2 3 - - 34 12Oman Q 45 2 2 2 - - 9 -

Pal.Gaza - -Qatar - -

Saudi Arabia Q 60 5 6 6 32 22 22 -Sudan S - 2 3 3 46 - - -Syria S 35 1 2 2 1 9 14 5

Tunisia Q 57 1 1 2 - 3 30 9Yemen S 27 1 1 1 - - 11 4

TOTAL 693 26 31 35 93 67 266 61

So

urc

e

Current ACC staff

Retirement over the period

Staff not to be trained

(>55 in 2005)

Total recruitment between …Number of Upper Airspace sectors

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ACAC Study 16 September 2005 38

ACAC Study of ATM-CNS

Staffing level required for Main TMA sectors

in 2005 in 2010 in 2020

> 10,000 18 16 8 15

> 30,000 12 11 15 20

> 80,000 3 6 9 26

> 180,000 1 2 3 33

TOTAL 34 35 35

Number of Major airportsMovements

per year

Nb of controllers per airport

Page 39: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 39

ACAC Study of ATM-CNS

Source column : ‘E’ = from ENAC ; ‘S’ = (Sof) based on data from General questionnaire; ‘Q’ = from detailed HR questionnaire‘ ‘ = assumption is made that current staff is sufficient for today’s traffic

The yearly recruitment needs takes into account staff renewal due to career evolutions.

Staffing level required for Main TMA sectors

in 2005 in 2010 in 2020 2005 and 2010 2010 and 2020

Algeria 45 3 3 5 - 19 18 6Bahrain S 36 2 3 3 - 5 15 5Egypt Q 19 9 10 12 102 12 2 -

Emirates Q 114 8 10 10 - 6 26 3Iraq -

Jordan Q 18 2 3 3 17 6 6 -Kuweit 30 2 3 3 - 8 12 4

Lebanon S 8 2 2 2 13 2 3 1Libya S 100 1 1 1 - - 40 14

Morocco S 212 4 5 7 - - 86 30Oman Q 15 2 2 3 5 6 - -

Pal.Gaza -Qatar 30 2 3 3 - 8 12 4

Saudi Arabia Q 104 13 13 15 26 33 22 1Sudan S 12 1 1 2 4 9 5 1Syria S - 1 1 1 - - - -

Tunisia Q 61 4 5 7 1 32 28 7Yemen S - 1 1 2 15 5 - -

TOTAL 804 57 66 79 183 149 273 76

So

urc

eCurrent

APP staffRetirement

over the period

Staff not to be trained

(>55 in 2005)

Number of TMA sectors Total recruitment between …

Page 40: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 40

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSGround infrastructure deployment - COM infrastructure deployment

HF deployment/decommissioning

0

10

20

30

40

50

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Baseline

CNS/ATM

VSAT stations & links deployment

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

VSAT station Baseline

VSAT link Baseline

VSAT station CNS/ATM

VSAT link CNS/ATM

Leased lines deployment/decommissioning

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Baseline

CNS/ATM

VHF deployment/decommissioning

0

40

80

120

160

200

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Baseline

CNS/ATM

Page 41: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 41

ACAC Study of ATM-CNSGround infrastructure deployment –

Conventional NAV and SUR infrastructure deploymentADS-B deployment/decommissioning

0

10

20

30

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Baseline

CNS/ATM

VOR, DME deployment/decommissioning

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Baseline

CNS/ATM

PSR/SSR deployment/decommissioning

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Baseline

CNS/ATM

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ACAC Study 16 September 2005 42

ACAC Study of ATM-CNS

Ground infrastructure deployment - NAV infrastructure deploymentAPV-SBAS deployment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Baseline

CNS/ATM

ILS deployment/decommissioning

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Baseline

CNS/ATM

GBAS deployment/decommissioning

0

10

20

30

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Baseline

CNS/ATM

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ACAC Study 16 September 2005 43

ACAC Study of ATM-CNS

Aircraft equipment deployment - Baseline Scenario

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

GPS

SBAS

GBAS Cat I

GBAS CatII/III

Galileo

VDLtechnology

SatComtechnology

ADS-Breceiver

Page 44: ACAC Study 16 September 2005 1 ACAC Study of ATM-CNS Presentation at ACAC Seminar 2005 in Rabat by Michel DELARCHE delarchem@sofreavia.fr From SOFREAVIA.

ACAC Study 16 September 2005 44

ACAC Study of ATM-CNS

Aircraft equipment deployment - CNS-ATM Scenario

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

GPS

SBAS

GBAS Cat I

GBAS CatII/III

Galileo

VDLtechnology

SatComtechnology

ADS-Breceiver