A Walk Through Time Looking at 40 years of Commuting Characteristics
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A Walk Through Time Looking at 40 years of Commuting Characteristics Presented at the Applications Planning Conference April 2003 Nancy McGuckin, Travel Behavior Analyst Nanda Srinivasan, Cambridge Systematics Inc.
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A Walk Through Time Looking at 40 years of Commuting Characteristics. Presented at the Applications Planning Conference April 2003 Nancy McGuckin, Travel Behavior Analyst Nanda Srinivasan, Cambridge Systematics Inc. In the last forty years there’s been:. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of A Walk Through Time Looking at 40 years of Commuting Characteristics
A Walk Through TimeLooking at 40 years of Commuting Characteristics
Presented at the Applications Planning Conference
April 2003
Nancy McGuckin, Travel Behavior Analyst
Nanda Srinivasan, Cambridge Systematics Inc.
In the last forty years there’s been:
Changes in family structure and workforce compositionGrowth in area, population, and workers in the suburban counties of major MSAsAn influx of affordable and long-lasting vehicles into the fleetIncreases in private vehicle use and significant increases in commute times
Changing Family Patterns
In 1960 61% of the households had:a father working outside the home,a homemaker mother, and three children
In 2000 67% of households are not nuclear family:28 % are married with no children at home26% are living alone13% are other related or unrelated
Changing Workforce
In 1960, there were 64.7 million workers, or 36% of the population.38 percent of women work, but few women with young children workMajority of families have one worker
In 2000 there were128.3 million workers, or 46% of the population.61 percent of women work, including two-thirds of women with children under 6.Shift to dual-earner families
Added People by DecadeMillions of People
28
2423 22
33
1950 - 1960 1960 - 1970 1970 - 1980 1980 - 1990 1990-2000
Added Workers per DecadeMillions of people
12.2
19.818.5
13.2
1960 - 1970 1970 - 1980 1980 - 1990 1990 - 2000
Added Population and Workers in Major Metro Areas
Suburbs and Central 1960 - 2000
0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000
SuburbanPopulation
Suburban Workers
C.C. Population
C.C. Workers
Vehicle Availability
Households are getting smaller with more vehicles…
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Vehicles per Household Persons per household
A LOT more Vehicles …
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1960 1990
Mill
ion
s o
f H
ou
se
ho
lds
Three or More
Two Vehicle
One Vehicle
Zero Vehicle
Leads to more cars on the road…Millions of Workers commuting by POV
41.4
59.7
81.3
99.6
112.7
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Percent of Households without Vehicles
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year
Pe
rce
nt
of
ho
us
eh
old
s
All Households
Black/ African American Households
All Hispanic Households
`
But the likelihood of owning a car varies by race and place…
One-fifth of zero-vehicle households…
1980 2000U.S. Total 13.10% 10.30%
U.S. w/o NY 11.31% 8.80%
…are in New York CMSA
Means of Travel
Commuting in America (U.S. Total) 1960 and 2000
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1960
2000
Private Vehicle Public transportation Walked Other means
75.7 percent of workers nationwide reported driving alone to work (compared to 73.2% in 1990). The proportion is higher in major MSAs (77.7%).
12.2 percent of workers reported carpooling, followed by transit (4.7 percent), work at home (3.3 percent), and walk (2.9 percent).
Carpooling declined from 13.4 percent (1990) to 12.2 percent (2000) of all workers.
Means of Commuting in 2000
Change in Percent of workers who carpooled to work-6.5- -4-3.9 - -1.5-1.4 - -0.5-0.5 - 0.50.5 - 1.5
Legend
Carpool to WorkChange in Percent, 1990-2000
Data Sources:2000 Census “Demographic Profiles”1990 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)
Universe: Workers: All Workers 16 years and older
Percentage Point Increase in Drive Alone Share by Growth Rate–1980 to 2000
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
High Med Low
1980 - 1990 1990 - 2000
Percentage Point Decline in Transit Share by Growth Rate – 1980 to 2000
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
High Med Low
1980 - 1990 1990 - 2000
The share of commutes by transit dropped slightly (5.3 percent in 1990 and 4.7 percent in 2000)
BUT, in numbers workers using transit remained about the same (6 million workers)
New York CMSA accounts for 38 percent (2.25 million) of all workers using transit in the whole country (w/ a 25% mode share)
From 1990-2000, Las Vegas, Portland, and Seattle gained most in percent of transit commuters
Transit Commutes in Major MSAs
Transit Ridership Change-100000 - -25000-24999 - -10000-9999 - 1000010001 - 2500025001 - 100000
Legend
Transit to WorkChange in Number of Workers, 1990-2000
Note: Modes included in transit for 1990 are Bus or trolley bus; Streetcar or trolley car; Subway or elevated; and Railroad.Universe: Workers: All Workers 16 years and older
Data Sources:2000 Census “Demographic Profiles”1990 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)
Shop/Errands23%
Visit/Soc18%
School/Church12%
Other12%
Work35%
People take transit for many purposes…
….Census Captures Commuting
”Usual”Mode is
90.0%
On Travel Day Took:
Drove Alone
Drove w/ Others
TookTransit
Walked
Biked
No Report/Other
Drove Alone 9.3%
0.2%
0.3%
0.1%
0.2%
Carpool
22.2%
74.8% 1.0%
1.4%
0.4%
0.3%
Transit
7.8%
9.7%
69.4%
10.1% 0.5%
2.5%
Walk
8.1%
9.2%
2.6%
79.5%
0.2% 0.4%
Bike
6.7%
8.4%
1.7%
6.1%
77.1%
0.0%
Are there any “Usual” days?
(comparison of ‘usual’ mode with mode on the travel day, 2001 NHTS)
Travel Time
In 2000, the average travel time to work was 25 minutes 30 seconds as compared to 22 minutes 23 seconds in 1990.
15 percent of workers in the nation now commute more than 45 minutes to work (1990, 12 percent).
40 percent of commuters in major Metro Areas travel over 30 minutes.
A Real Shift to Longer Commutes…
Population Change (%) and Change in Average Travel Time (min) to Work
1990-2000
Les
s th
an 5
%% PopulationChange
Change in Avg.Travel Time
5%
- 20
% M
ore
than
20%
More than 3 min.
2 – 3 min.
Less than 2 min.
Legend
Data Sources:2000 Census “Demographic Profiles”1990 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)
Universe: Workers: All Workers 16 years and older
Worker Change (%) and Change in Average Travel time (min) to Work
1990-2000
Data Sources:2000 Census “Demographic Profiles”1990 Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP)
Universe: Workers: All Workers 16 years and older
Legend
% Worker Change
Change in Avg.Travel Time
5%
- 20
% M
ore
than
20%
More than 3 min.
2 – 3 min.
Less than 2 min.
L
ess
than
5%
MSAs with the longest travel time: New York MSA (34.0 minutes); Washington, DC (31.7 minutes); Atlanta (31.2 minutes), and Chicago (31.0 minutes)
In 1990, the top 3 MSAs were – New York City (30.0 minutes); Washington, DC (28.2 minutes), and Chicago (27.9 minutes)
Workers in Atlanta reported the largest increases since 1990, with an increase of 5.2 minutes
The longest commute time is…
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
at home < 5 min 5 - 9 min 10 - 14min
15 - 19min
20 - 24min
25 - 29min
30 - 34min
35 - 39min
40 - 44min
45 - 59min
60 - 89min
90 ormore min
Travel time to work
Cum
ulat
ive
% o
f wor
kers
2000: 49 MSAs 2000: Rest of the country
People in Metro Areas Travel Longer to Work
More commuters are traveling 45 minutes or more in large metro areas…
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
1980 1990 2000
High Growth Areas All Large Metros
Change in Distribution of Travel TimeHigh Growth and Low Growth Areas 1980 - 2000
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
High Growth Low Growth
< 5 mins 10-14mins5-9 mins 15-19mins 20-29mins
30-44mins 45-59mins >60 mins
Changes in family structure, workforce and vehicle availability primarily effected mode choice in the 1980s
People may have shifted to POV and drive alone to save travel time
In the 1990s travel times have really shown significant increases…how will people respond?
Expect a shift in departure times as workplaces become more flexible and people try to minimize their travel time.
The long-form Census data are a valuable resource for understanding trends in commuting in the nation, states, and local communities. There is research currently programmed to examine the effects of moving to ACS.
The amount of time in travel to work may indicate the effects of a better economy, sprawl, congestion, etc. Further research is necessary at small geography to untangle some of these issues.
Journey-to-Work Trends Report will be released in early summer. Its been a blast!
What does the future hold?
