A value driver model for network operations
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Transcript of A value driver model for network operations
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Graham Jacoby
Network Operations Analysis
A Value Driver Model for Network Operations
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Value Driver Modelling: Concept
2
A tool used extensively in operations based private
industries
allow a company to understand how business drivers
influence the supply chain and impact the bottom line
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Example Application: Mining
3
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Application to Road Network Operations
4
How can this concept be applied to road space?
Supply, Demand and Cost
Inputs could be either:
Factors controlled by Main Roads, or
Factors outside our control
Outputs are
Speed
Reliability
Safety
VDMs to be built and calibrated route by route
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
5
Perth’s Mitchell Freeway
Southbound (inbound) direction
30km length (93 lane kms)
Heavily congested in AM peak
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
6
Performance(Cost)
Supply
Demand
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
7
Performance(Cost)
Supply
Physical Road Space
Posted Speed Limit
Acceptable Headway
Road StandardDemand
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
8
How to quantify supply at a route level?
Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD)
Relates density to speed
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
9
How to quantify supply at a route level?
Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD)
Relates density to speed
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
10
Why Van Aerde Equation?
Four free parameters
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 ~ physical road space
𝑉0 ~ posted speed
𝐶0 ~ max throughput
𝑘𝑠𝑡 ~ road standard
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 53.3 veh/km/lane
𝑉0 = 99.2 km/hr
𝐶0 = 127,650 VKT/hr
𝑘𝑠𝑡 = 0.0861
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 70 veh/km/lane
𝑉0 = 99.2 km/hr
𝐶0 = 127,650 VKT/hr
𝑘𝑠𝑡 = 0.0861
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 53.3 veh/km/lane
𝑉0 = 99.2 km/hr
𝐶0 = 127,650 VKT/hr
𝑘𝑠𝑡 = 0.0861
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 53.3 veh/km/lane
𝑉0 = 80 km/hr
𝐶0 = 127,650 VKT/hr
𝑘𝑠𝑡 = 0.0861
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 53.3 veh/km/lane
𝑉0 = 99.2 km/hr
𝐶0 = 127,650 VKT/hr
𝑘𝑠𝑡 = 0.0861
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 53.3 veh/km/lane
𝑉0 = 99.2 km/hr
𝐶0 = 100,000 VKT/hr
𝑘𝑠𝑡 = 0.0861
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
18
𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 53.3 veh/km/lane
𝑉0 = 99.2 km/hr
𝐶0 = 127,650 VKT/hr
𝑘𝑠𝑡 = 0.0861
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 53.3 veh/km/lane
𝑉0 = 99.2 km/hr
𝐶0 = 127,650 VKT/hr
𝑘𝑠𝑡 = 0.01
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 53.3 veh/km/lane
𝑉0 = 99.2 km/hr
𝐶0 = 67.7 VKT/hr
𝑘𝑠𝑡 = 0.0861
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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Performance(Cost)
Supply
Max Density 𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 Physical Road Space
Max Speed 𝑉0 Posted Speed Limit
Max Throughput 𝐶0Accepted Headway
(visibility)
Shape Factor 𝑘𝑠𝑡 Road Standard
Demand
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
22
Performance(Cost)
Supply
Demand
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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Performance(Cost)
Supply
Demand
Peak Demand
Peak Time
Peak Spread
Trip Length
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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How to quantify demand at a route level?
Much simpler
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 07:30
𝐴𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘= 12,000 veh/hr
𝑝𝑓𝑎𝑐 = 12
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 07:30
𝐴𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘= 12,000 veh/hr
𝑝𝑓𝑎𝑐 = 12
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
27
𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 08:00
𝐴𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘= 12,000 veh/hr
𝑝𝑓𝑎𝑐 = 12
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 07:30
𝐴𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘= 12,000 veh/hr
𝑝𝑓𝑎𝑐 = 12
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
29
𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 07:30
𝐴𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘= 14,000 veh/hr
𝑝𝑓𝑎𝑐 = 12
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
30
𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 07:30
𝐴𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘= 12,000 veh/hr
𝑝𝑓𝑎𝑐 = 12
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
31
𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 07:30
𝐴𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘= 12,000 veh/hr
𝑝𝑓𝑎𝑐 = 10
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
32
𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 07:30
𝐴𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘= 12,000 veh/hr
𝑝𝑓𝑎𝑐 = 12
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
33
Performance(Cost)
Supply
Demand
Peak Demand
Peak Time
Peak Spread
Trip Length
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
34
Performance(Cost)
Supply
Demand
𝐴𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 Peak Demand
𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 Peak Time
𝑝𝑓𝑎𝑐 Peak Spread
12km Trip Length
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
35
Performance(Cost)
Supply
Demand
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
36
Performance(Cost)
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Performance Model
37
Simple queuing system
INPUT STORAGE OUTPUT
RESTRICTION
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Performance Model
38
Simple queuing system
1. Check # vehicles in storage
2. Calculate density (vehicles/road space)
3. Read speed from supply curve
4. Calculate TT (trip length/speed)
5. Read input from demand model
6. Add input to storage and hold for TT
7. Release output
8. Update # vehicles in storage
9. repeat INPUT STORAGE OUTPUT
RESTRICTION
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Performance Model
39
Results – queue model iterated for 18,000 seconds
Sys. speed over time
Queue length (nV) over time
INPUT STORAGE OUTPUT
RESTRICTION
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Performance Model
40
Results
Bulk metrics
INPUT STORAGE OUTPUT
RESTRICTION
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Performance Model
41
Results
Sys. speed over time
Queue (nV) over time
INPUT STORAGE OUTPUT
RESTRICTION
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
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Performance(Cost)
Supply
Max Density 𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 53
Max Speed 𝑉0 = 99
Max Throughput 𝐶0 = 128,000
Shape Factor 𝑘𝑠𝑡 = 0.086
Demand
Peak Demand 𝐴𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 12,000
Peak Time 𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 07: 30
Peak Spread Fac 𝑝𝑓𝑎𝑐 = 12
Trip Length = 12km
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Example: VDM for Road Network Ops
43
Performance(Cost)
Supply
Max Density 𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 53
Max Speed 𝑉0 = 99
Max Throughput 𝐶0 = 128,000 ±5%
Shape Factor 𝑘𝑠𝑡 = 0.086
Demand
Peak Demand 𝐴𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 12,000 ±5%
Peak Time 𝑡𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑘 = 07: 30 ±5%
Peak Spread Fac 𝑝𝑓𝑎𝑐 = 12
Trip Length = 12km ±5%
Perturb inputs
Multirun
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Prototype: VDM for Road Network Ops
44
Perth’s Mitchell Freeway SB
Models a full year of
operations minute by minute
14 day types
Rainfall + lighting conditions
Crashes, breakdowns, debris
Road maintenance schedule
Events calendar
Heavy vehicle traffic
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Prototype: VDM for Road Network Ops
45
Perth’s Mitchell Freeway SB
Significant calibration effort
Forecasts
Delay
VoC
Reliability
Emissions
Crashes
absolute and assoc. $ costs
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Results: Dashboard Summary
46
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Use Case Examples: Scenario Modelling
47
Maintenance Scheduling:
Close one lane for three nights or three lanes for one
night?
Incident Response:
Benefits of expanding the IRS fleet, investing in new
capabilities (e.g. road rakes), or optimal allocation of the
existing fleet.
Impact of Events:
How will demand for events at the new Perth Stadium
influence freeway performance? Should we anticipate
increased incidents on opening?
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END
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What the VDM is
49
Route level model for rapid scenario testing
Complementary to conventional modelling tools, i.e.
Strategic models
Mesoscopic models
Microsimulation models
Traffic engineering tools
Designed to forecast reliability and safety
Designed to model peak or off-peak, rain or shine
Designed to model incidents and environmental
factors
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What the VDM is not
50
Not designed to replace traditional modelling tools
Not designed to replace traditional modelling tools
Not suitable for modelling highly detailed/local
treatments
Not deterministic
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Value Driver Model
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Environmental Model
52
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Supply Model
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Demand Model
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Incident Model
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Performance Model
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