BW9 Concurrent Session 11/13/2013 3:45 PM 

     

"A Mind-Blowing Exploration on How to Make Better Decisions"

   

Presented by:

Iain McCowatt Barclays

        

Brought to you by:  

  

340 Corporate Way, Suite 300, Orange Park, FL 32073 888‐268‐8770 ∙ 904‐278‐0524 ∙ sqeinfo@sqe.com ∙ www.sqe.com

Iain McCowatt Barclays

Iain McCowatt is a software testing expert whose experience and passion for testing spans multiple industries and more than a decade. Iain specializes in helping client organizations solve difficult testing problems on large and complex enterprise IT projects. In this role, his greatest revelation in recent years is that the single most important contributor to success or failure is people—in particular how they think and react to problems. Therefore, Iain is dedicated to better understanding how we make decisions—and what can get in the way. Iain is active in the software testing community, serves as a volunteer instructor with the Association of Software Testing, and blogs at exploringuncertainty.com.

 

9/9/13  

1  

A  Mind-­‐Blowing  Explora6on:  How  to  Make  Be<er  Decisions  

Iain  McCowa<  h<p://exploringuncertainty.com  

iain@exploringuncertainty.com  @imccowa<  imccowa<  

 

 

©  Can  Stock  Photo  Inc.  /  frenta  

Introduc6on  

Melissa’s    story  

Ge#y  Images  

9/9/13  

2  

David  Plunkert,  New  York  Times  

Introduc6on  

Fast    Effortless    Unconscious    More  suscep6ble  to  bias    

Slow    

Hard    

Conscious    

Less  suscep6ble  to  bias  

   

Introduc6on  

How  do  you  make  decisions?  

Flikr/Daniel  Dale  

9/9/13  

3  

System  2:  Analy6cal  Reasoning  

Op6ons  •  Iden6fy  Op6ons  

Criteria  •  Iden6fy  Criteria  • Weight  Criteria  

Scoring  •  Score  Op6ons  

Decide  •  Select  Highest  Scoring  Op6on  

System  1:  Intui6on  

Mental  Models  

Ac6on  Scripts  

Mental  Simula6on  

Situa6on  

Cues  

Pa<erns  

Ac6on  Scripts  

generates  

that  you  recognize  as  that  ac6vate  

to  affect  the  

which    you  assess  by  

using  your  

Recogni6on  Primed  Decision  Making  (Klein)  

9/9/13  

4  

Meanwhile,  back  at  the  NICU…  

From  Intui6on  to  Analysis:  Explica6ng  Cues  

Cardio  triage  in  a  

Michigan  ER  

From  Analysis  to  Intui6on:  Teaching  Intui6on  

9/9/13  

5  

Boos6ng  Your  Intui6ve  Exper6se  

Understand  the  decision  

requirements  of  your  role    

Istockphoto/Onur  Döngel  

Boos6ng  Your  Intui6ve  Exper6se  

Learn  the  cues:  indica6ons  &  

contraindica6ons  

9/9/13  

6  

Boos6ng  Your  Intui6ve  Exper6se  

Study  mental  models:  choose,  invent,  adapt  

Boos6ng  Your  Intui6ve  Exper6se  

Prac6ce,  and  play  decision  making  

games  

9/9/13  

7  

Boos6ng  Your  Intui6ve  Exper6se  

Get  (the  right  kind  of)  feedback  

The  Last  Word  

9/9/13  

8  

Ques6ons?  

Iain  McCowa<  h<p://exploringuncertainty.com  

iain@exploringuncertainty.com  @imccowa<  imccowa<  

 

 

Further  Reading  

Bazerman,  M.H.  (2005).  Judgment  in  Managerial  Decision  Making.  Croskerry,  P.  (2009).  A  Universal  Model  for  DiagnosIc  Reasoning.    Gigerenzer,  G.  (2008).  Gut  Feelings.  Groopman,  J.  (2007).  How  Doctors  Think.  Kahneman,  D.  and  Klein,  G.  (2009).  CondiIons  for  IntuiIve  ExperIse:  A  Failure  to  Disagree.  Klein,  G.  (1999).  Sources  of  Power:  How  People  Make  Decisions.  Klein,  G.  (2003).  The  Power  of  IntuiIon.    McCowa<,  I.  (2012).  The  Validity  of  the  TesIng  Environment.  McCowa<,  I.  (2012).  Doctor,  Doctor.    Simon,  H.  (1956).  RaIonal  Choice  and  the  Structure  of  the  Environment.