A JUNE MONSOON? David L. Mitchell 1 , Dorothea Ivanova 1 and David Gochis 2
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A JUNE MONSOON?
David L. Mitchell1, Dorothea Ivanova1 and David Gochis2
1. Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado
Acknowledgment: We thank the people at NOAA/NESDIS, CIMSS at Univ. Madison, Wisc., the Navel Research Laboratory in Monterey and UNiSYS for hosting their products on the internet regarding satellite SSTs, total precipitable water, rainfall amounts and wind fields.
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AZNM region cumulative normalized rainfallfor periods having N. GC SSTs ≤ indicatedSST. Time is implicit with increasing SSTs.
Mean rainfall rates for the AZNM regionfor N. GC SST intervals of 0.5oC based onfive June-August seasons.
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7 July 2002at 00 UTC,Total Precip.Water (TPW)
9 July 2002at 00 UTC,TPW
11 July 2002at 00 UTC,TPW
2.4oC increase in N. GC SST over 2 days,reaching 29.8oC.
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11 July 2002at 00 UTC.24 hour rainfallaccumulation
15 July 2002at 00 UTC.24 hour rainfallaccumulation
2002 AZ MonsoonOnset Period
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Hypothesis Development: MM5 Modeling of the 1999 Arizona Monsoon Onset
SST Evolution along the NW coast of Mexico
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SST Dependence of Vertical Mixing Over the Northern Gulf
Northern gulf SST: 26 oCSST below N. GC: 28 oC
Northern gulf SST: 30 oCSST below N. GC: 30 oC
Cross-Section A-B: Potential temperature
5 AM LST, day 3
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Cross-Section C-D: Water vapor mixing ratio
Northern gulf SST: 29 oCSST below N. GC: 30 oC
Northern gulf SST: 30 oCSST below N. GC: 30 oC
5 AM LST, day 3
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N. GC 26oC; 28oC otherwise N. GC 29oC; 30oC otherwise N. GC. 30oC; 30oC otherwise
Sensitivity of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) to GCsea surface temperatures. Simulation time = 54 h; 11 pm LST.
Yellow ≈ 1300 J/kg (CAPE)Orange ≈ 2100 J/kgRed ≈ 2900 J/kgBrown ≈ 3700 J/kg
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5 AMMSTDay 3
5 PMMSTDay 3
26/28 oC 29/30 oC 30/30 oC
Dependence of CIN on GC SST
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Conceptual Model of Moisture Advection Dependence on SST
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Comparison of modeled and observed normalized rainfall rates for AZNM region , for modeled conditions in conformity with hypothesis
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Temperature, Dewpoint, deg. C Temperature, Dewpoint, deg. C
3 km2.5 km
Alt
itu d
e
100 30 0 10 3020 20
Examples of NAME Soundings over the GC; August Cruise
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A June Monsoon?
Blended SSMI/TRMM experimental rainfall estimates from NRL, Monterey
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NG: 24.2 oC NG: 26.7 oC
16 June 2005 20 June 2005
SST & TPW
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Wind fields suggest Gulf of Calif. moisture source
5 pm MST June 20th, 700 mb 5 pm MST June 20th, 850 mb
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June monsoon summary
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Food for Thought
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Annual Time Series of Regionalized Aug Gulf of California SST
R2 = 0.4261
R2 = 0.4799
R2 = 0.31
R2 = 0.2512
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
SS
T (
deg
C)
N-GoC
C-GoC
S-Goc
Pre-Goc
Linear (N-GoC)
Linear (C-GoC)
Linear (S-Goc)
Linear (Pre-Goc)
What will happen next?
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SUMMARY
1. MM5 simulations suggest that the marine boundary layer in the Gulf of California (GC) may be sensitive to GC SSTs. This MBL may act as a moisture source for monsoon rainfall over AZ.
2. The moisture source for the June period of scattered thundershowers affecting AZ, the Great Basin and Colorado appears to be the GC. This same pattern is commonduring the monsoon season.
3. Soundings over the GC during NAME are consistent with MM5 soundings.
4. Observations of SST, TPW, winds and rainfall during the “June monsoon” of 2005appear consistent with the hypothesis developed from the MM5 study.
5. Since the GC appears to be warming at a rate of about 1.4 oC over the last 20 years, it is important to understand the role that GC SSTs play in monsoon dynamics.