A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 1 Thomas C. Peterson NOAA’s...
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A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 1 Thomas C. Peterson NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina What Lies Ahead
Transcript of A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 1 Thomas C. Peterson NOAA’s...
A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 1
Thomas C. Peterson
NOAA’s National Climatic Data CenterAsheville, North Carolina
What Lies AheadWhat Lies Ahead
A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 2
Outline of the talk:
• The basic physics of climate change science
• Implications of this physics– On temperature and precipitation
• Projected changes relevant to the plant sector
• A bit on impacts
A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 3
A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
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We need the greenhouse effect
• The Earth’s surface temperature is ~60ºF
• Without the greenhouse effect it would be ~5ºF
• But humans are changing the radiative properties of the atmosphere and thereby the greenhouse effect
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Ravishankara (2006)
Warming versus cooling effects are like the tortoise versus the hare.
Climate Forcing Summary
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Do you believe in global warming?
• I believe in quantum physics.
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Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 7
Quantum physics tells us that• Infrared (IR) energy can only be absorbed
and radiated in very small particle-like packets of energy called quanta
A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 8
Quantum physics tells us that• Infrared (IR) energy can only be absorbed
and radiated in very small particle-like packets of energy called quanta
• Each molecule can absorb and radiate quanta at different wavelengths
A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 9
Quantum physics tells us that• Infrared (IR) energy can only be
absorbed and radiated in very small particle-like packets of energy called quanta
• Each molecule can absorb and radiate quanta at different wavelengths
• Two atom molecules can absorb very little IR energy– E.g., Nitrogen (N2) and Oxygen (O2)
• 98% of the atmosphere
A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 10
Quantum physics tells us that• Infrared (IR) energy can only be
absorbed and radiated in very small particle-like packets of energy called quanta
• Each molecule can absorb and radiate quanta at different wavelengths
• Two atom molecules can absorb very little IR energy– E.g., Nitrogen (N2) and Oxygen (O2)
• 98% of the atmosphere
• Three or more atom molecules do absorb and radiate in the IR– E.g., Carbon Dioxide (CO2), water vapor
(H2O), methane (CH4)• 2% of the atmosphere• CO2 only 0.04% of the atmosphere
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Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 11
Are CO2 and other greenhouse gasses really responsible for changing the global
temperature?
• Ice cores can give us the long view
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Are CO2 and other greenhouse gasses really responsible for changing the global
temperature?
• The long view says they are definitely related
Vostock ice core data from Petit et al., 1999; current CO2 data from NOAA (Tans 2007)
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• Atmospheric carbon dioxide is predicted to rise to concentrations not seen in perhaps 25 million years– Pekar 2008
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Scenarios• Future warming depends on how much
greenhouse gases are emitted• Several different scenarios were
developed based on possible changes in– Population– Rate of adoption of new technologies– Economic growth– But not policies
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Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 15GCCI 2009
Data through 2007
Kaya identity: CO2 emissions from human sources = (population)x(GDP/capita)x(Energy/GDP)x(CO2/energy)Hence 2008 emission likely to be lower than 2007’s.Data for 2008 available in June 2009.
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Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 16
GCCI 2009
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Not from climate A to climate B
• Projections to end of century gives appearance of climate change ending then
• Plan for continual change– Where the rate of change is most
relevant
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Clausius–Clapeyron relationship
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GCCI, 2009
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Humidity increases are greatest where temperatures are highest
Peterson et al., 2011
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Temperature increases are highest where humidity is lowest
Peterson et al., 2011
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GCCI, 2009
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As climate As climate warms, warms, hardwood hardwood trees out-trees out-compete compete evergreen evergreen trees that are trees that are adapted to adapted to colder colder conditionsconditions
GCCI, 2009
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Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 24
A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
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Projected Shifts in Forest Types
Mid-range warming scenario
GCCI, 2009
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Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 26
GCCI, 2009
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Ecosystems processes, such as those that control growth and decomposition, have been affected by climate change.• Climate change has strong Climate change has strong
influence on the processes that influence on the processes that control growth and development control growth and development in ecosystemsin ecosystems
• Temperature increases can:Temperature increases can:– Speed up plant growth, especially Speed up plant growth, especially
weedsweeds– Rates of decompositionRates of decomposition– How rapidly the cycling of nutrients How rapidly the cycling of nutrients
occursoccurs
Kudzu Kudzu vinesvines
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Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 28
Climate change is here and now and in our own backyards
• In the U.S., spring now arrives an average of 10 In the U.S., spring now arrives an average of 10 days to two weeks earlier than 20 years agodays to two weeks earlier than 20 years ago– The growing season is lengthening over much of the continental The growing season is lengthening over much of the continental
U.S.U.S.– Many migratory bird species arrive earlierMany migratory bird species arrive earlier
Photograph by Robert Lubeck: Animals Animals—Earth Scenes
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Asheville, NC March 22, 2012 29
A Growing Interest 2: Climate and Plants
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The End
