A Global Outlook on Natural Gas - Innovasjon Norge · World Energy Council next? • Executive...

© Weltenergierat – Deutschland e. V. Dr. Carsten Rolle l 12.10.2017

A Global Outlook

on Natural GasDr. Carsten Rolle

Weltenergierat – Deutschland e. V.

© Weltenergierat – Deutschland e. V.

Agenda

Introduction Weltenergierat – Deutschland e. V.

Climate Goals and Natural Gas

Natural Gas in the Global Energy Mix

The Role of Unconventional Resources

The LNG Potential

Conclusion

2


World Energy Council (WEC)

3

► Largest international

energy organization

► About 100 Member Committees

► Founded in1923

► Independent, no lobby organization

► Comprises all energy sources

► Represents more than 90 % of

global energy production

► International work and study groups


WEC - Germany

4

XXIII. Weltenergiekonferenz:

Oktober 2016 in Istanbul, Türkei

► German WEC Committee

► Head office in Berlin

► More than 60 member companies of the energy sector and beyond

► Own publications, events, round tables, press talks …

Our goal: „Realization and distribution of the WEC work results in Germany in order to

inform based on facts and draw attention to the global aspects of energy and climate

policy in the national discussion.“


Climate Goals

and Natural Gas


WEC-Scenarios: Global CO2

reduction goals not reached

Source: Global CO2-Emissions in billion tons, World Energy Council Scenarios 20166

Expected Temperature Increase


Natural Gas consumption will rise

according to all WEC-Scenarios

7

- In all three scenarios, global natural gas

consumption will rise and contribute to

climate protection

- The most climate-friendly scenario

“Unfinished Symphony“ sees a decline as

of 2050

- Market-driven scenario “Modern Jazz“

assumes the highest gas consumption

Source: World Energy Council Scenarios 2016

Natural Gas Consumption(in billion tons oil-equivalent)


Natural Gas in the

Global Energy Mix


Global Primary Energy

Consumption: Gas surpasses Coal

Source: World Energy Outlook 20169


Developing Countries lead the Growth

in Global Gas Demand

10Source: World Energy Outlook 2016


The Key to Global Gas Demand Growth:

Power Generation, Industry, Buildings



Future Gas Production Regions:

Algeria, Indonesia, India, Mexico …

12



Asia is the Engine for

Incremental Gas Imports

13



EU Gas Imports grow; Supplier Diversity

increases due to a Boost in LNG Trade



The Role of

Unconventional Resources


Unconventional Gas Worldwide: USA,

Canada, China and Australia leading

Source: World Energy Council „Unconventional gas, a global phenomenon“ 16


The US at a turning point –

from net importer to net exporter

17

Source: Team Consult “The US in Focus”, Oil & Gas Expert Talks 2017


US LNG delivered mainly to

Latin-America and Asia-Pacific Region

18

Source: Team Consult “The US in Focus”, Oil & Gas Expert Talks 2017


Argentina estimated to have the

second-largest shale gas resource

Source: World Energy Outlook 2016 19


Unconventional Gas Reserves –

Developments are hard to foresee

20

► Different political framework conditions worldwide

► High speed development of resources

► New competitors

► Globally available in form of LNG

► Price peaks

► BP expects increase of shale gas in global gas production from 11 % to 24 % until 2035


The LNG Potential


LNG spurs a Second Natural Gas

Revolution

22



Oil and Gas Prices in Asia, Europe, USA:

Gas Prices decreased by 30 % in 2016

23


Global LNG-Trade: 265 million tons

in 2016; Asia-Pacific largest importer

24


LNG Supplies Grow Strongly led by

US and Australia

25

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2017


Conclusion


Conclusion

27

► Global role of gas is increasing – most dynamic fossil fuel

► This might continue until mid 2030’s. Let us not talk away necessary investments

► Unconventional gas reserves / shale gas continues to have disruptive potential

► LNG will dominate gas trade in the future and pushes integration of regional markets stepwise further

► Diversification of gas extraction and delivery options goes on – (European) consumers profit from that


Where can you meet the

World Energy Council next?

• Executive Assembly

October 16 – 19, 2017 in Lisbon

• 1st Nordic Energy Forum

November 14 – 15, 2017 in Helsinki

• World Energy Outlook

November 17, 2017 in Berlin

• Energy Day 2017

November 21, 2017 in Berlin

28


Questions and Thoughts

Weltenergierat – Deutschland e.V.

Gertraudenstrasse 20

10178 Berlin

Tel: 030-2061 6750

Fax: 030-2028 2462

E-Mail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


New Exporters Boost Supplier

Diversity

30


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