A concurrent design approach for model- based technology ...€¦ · Model-based Roadmapping...
Transcript of A concurrent design approach for model- based technology ...€¦ · Model-based Roadmapping...
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A concurrent design approach for model-
based technology roadmapping
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Overview
• Roadmapping in general
• Technology infusion assessment
• Concurrent Design approach
• Roadmap modeling
• Use case: Solar Electric Plane
• Outlook
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Technology Roadmapping – Metaphor
wherearewetoday? wherecouldwego? whereshouldwego?
Technologyassessment Technologyroadmapping Technologyplanning
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Strategic Corporate Technology Management
• Strategy Development Process1. Assessment – identifying status and opportunities
2. Roadmapping – evaluating alternative options
3. Planning – choosing possibilities
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Object Process Methodology(OPM) ISO/PAS 19450
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Technology Infusion Assessment
• Quantitative assessment Figures of Merit
• Multiple Attributes in tension Tradespace exploration(Ross & Hastings 2005)
• Technological evolution shifts the Pareto front(de Weck & Chang 2003)
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Concurrent Design Approach
• Used for space mission feasibility studies (Bandecchi et. al., 2000; Braukhane & Romberg, 2010)
+ Encode knowledge in models where possible
+ Include multiple disciplines
+ Value human expertiseand in-person discussion
+ Collaboration supported by tools and process
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Concurrency
parallel work
co-located work
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Concurrent Roadmapping Process
3 Steps
1) Formulation
2) Modeling,
3) Landscaping
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Object Process Methodology(OPM) ISO/PAS 19450
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Model-based Roadmapping
• Documenting technology assessment
• Enabling reliable and repeatable evaluation
• Providing data for technology investment
1) Contextual data
2) Descriptive Model (in OPM)
3) Analytic (parametric) Model
4) Resulting Tradespace data
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Roadmap Architecture Model
As Object Process Diagram
• Visual representation for quick understanding of roadmap content
• Formalization for comparison• Product instances
• System breakdown structure
• Functions
• Figures of Merit
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Parametric System Model
• Decomposition of Systeminto Subsystems / Disciplines
• Technology models:mapping design variables to figures of merit
a) Transfer Function – Physics based first principles
b) Response Surface – Data from prototypes / tests
c) Expert Heuristics – Empirical relationships
• Collaborative tradespace exploration through iterative design session
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Notional Roadmap Example: Solar Electric Airplane SEA
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payload
(manned or unmanned)
propellers or
ducted fans
e-motorsbattery pack
tail
airframe
wing area
wing span
solar cells
Solar
Radiation
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SEA: Roadmap Architecture
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SEA – Analytic Model
Integrated analytic model:Sizing parameters map to performance characteristics
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SEA - Tradespace
Future Pareto front in red.
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Payload mass vs. Endurance
Current Pareto front in black
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Summary & Outlook
++ Model-based roadmaps provide reliable data for decision support
- - Building models for new technologies remains challenging
• Forecasting of future evolution Figures of Merit
• Taking into account market competitors
• Expert opinion elicitation with Delphi method
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A concurrent design approach for model-
based technology roadmapping