9 April 2015 - Profercy · The East/West phosphates price gulf has widened further as disputed spot...

7
© Copyright 2015 Profercy Phosphates SC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 01 9 April 2015 Published by Profercy Phosphates SC Editor Tom Jago Producer position & Outlook Our global DAP, MAP industry stock change estimates for end April show stock-build growth of about 350,000t (MAP mainly) but of both grades combined. Similar to the earlier events during March, most of the producer surplus is in Russia, Saudi Arabia and China. While to date, Indian last-minute demand has been sufficiently strong to absorb DAP exports from Saudi and China. But now DAP is starting to load from the West (ex-Baltic and Tampa) in search of better DAP netbacks all over Asia, but particularly in India, Pakistan World DAP/MAP snapshot Export position changes Kt USA -15 Mexico -13 Russia +50 Lithuania +4 Morocco =0 Tunisia +30 Saudi Arabia +110 Australia +25 Jordan +40 China port warehouse +125 End-April stock change +356 Phosphates still soft in the West, flat in the East; Russia competitive on MAP; Tampa DAP set for India The East/West phosphates price gulf has widened further as disputed spot claims are now the only common feature across a highly fragmented world market. Indian claims are circulating of falling cfr prices and a near doubling of the DAP import volumes booked to date. From China, producers tell a different story; that offers on guaranteed FCO-compliant 18-46 DAP are unchanged on May loads. The counter- claims come just a week ahead of two industry meetings in Beijing. The first is run by the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, which represents a fairly cohesive local industry. Profercy Phosphates will be speaking at this event 14 April. Experience suggests that a softer supplier posture from China’s P lobby is unlikely right on the eve of the conferences. At the same time, Indian DAP inventories are low, and a 5% phosacid price increase has already been achieved. Pre-meeting negotiating ploys are common, of course. One contrast this year is a historically narrow India bid/offer range going into the new season. This time last year… P2 One-minute briefing US DAP, MAP flat, nominal at $470-475 fob Tampa; Mosaic set to load for India While Mosaic rarely comments on internal supply plans for any off-shore system… …this cargo, is reckoned to be a big one, looks to be for around 65-70,000t DAP Mosaic´s netback on its Indian system sales is speculated around $470pt fob USG This is well above NOLA netbacks to Tampa, where export quotes look out-dated, …at unworkable levels for the West; Tampa starts to lose relevance as benchmark Russian MAP again lower at $446pt fob Baltic, MAP to Brazil at $460-465pt cfr Brazil domestic prices are all over the map in big range $530-550pt fot ex-port… …highlighting patchy internal stocks levels, and some pipeline pressure emerging Brazil buyers have a strong message to suppliers, indicating interest broadly at... $445-455pt cfr, going down a further $10pt in step with the latest offer cuts Corn, beans slide following newly bearish USDA crop data, and strong dollar 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 2400 2700 '000t DAP (red, green), all ferts '000t P₂O₅ DAP stocks DAP Imports Local DAP Output (white bar) Local DAP Sales Local DAP price (Rs/t x 10) Sales total P₂O₅ (yellow line) India DAP S&D: Imports slow over last 2 years, but inventory is now all but used April 2015: Low opening stocks

Transcript of 9 April 2015 - Profercy · The East/West phosphates price gulf has widened further as disputed spot...

© Copyright 2015 Profercy Phosphates SC All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a

retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 01

9 April 2015

Published by

Profercy Phosphates SC

Editor Tom Jago

Producer position & Outlook Our global DAP, MAP industry stock

change estimates for end April show

stock-build growth of about 350,000t

(MAP mainly) but of both grades

combined. Similar to the earlier events

during March, most of the producer

surplus is in Russia, Saudi Arabia and

China. While to date, Indian last-minute

demand has been sufficiently strong to

absorb DAP exports from Saudi and

China. But now DAP is starting to load

from the West (ex-Baltic and Tampa) in

search of better DAP netbacks all over

Asia, but particularly in India, Pakistan

World DAP/MAP snapshot

Export position changes Kt

USA -15

Mexico -13

Russia +50

Lithuania +4

Morocco =0

Tunisia +30

Saudi Arabia +110

Australia +25

Jordan +40

China port warehouse +125

End-April stock change +356

Speciality NPKs: Export spike Unlike in commodity P ferts, next week’s

China’s export tax rise has brought a sales

wave & temporarily lower prices. Some

prompt low-end deals, but new offers up P7

window close lifts supply, weakens prices.

Phosphates still soft in the West, flat in the East;

Russia competitive on MAP; Tampa DAP set for India

The East/West phosphates price gulf has widened further as disputed spot claims

are now the only common feature across a highly fragmented world market. Indian

claims are circulating of falling cfr prices and a near doubling of the DAP import

volumes booked to date. From China, producers tell a different story; that offers on

guaranteed FCO-compliant 18-46 DAP are unchanged on May loads. The counter-

claims come just a week ahead of two industry meetings in Beijing. The first is run

by the China Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Association, which represents a fairly

cohesive local industry. Profercy Phosphates will be speaking at this event 14 April.

Experience suggests that a softer supplier posture from China’s P lobby is unlikely

right on the eve of the conferences. At the same time, Indian DAP inventories are

low, and a 5% phosacid price increase has already been achieved. Pre-meeting

negotiating ploys are common, of course. One contrast this year is a historically

narrow India bid/offer range going into the new season. This time last year… P2

One-minute briefing

US DAP, MAP flat, nominal at $470-475 fob Tampa; Mosaic set to load for India

While Mosaic rarely comments on internal supply plans for any off-shore system…

…this cargo, is reckoned to be a big one, looks to be for around 65-70,000t DAP

Mosaic´s netback on its Indian system sales is speculated around $470pt fob USG

This is well above NOLA netbacks to Tampa, where export quotes look out-dated,

…at unworkable levels for the West; Tampa starts to lose relevance as benchmark

Russian MAP again lower at $446pt fob Baltic, MAP to Brazil at $460-465pt cfr

Brazil domestic prices are all over the map in big range $530-550pt fot ex-port…

…highlighting patchy internal stocks levels, and some pipeline pressure emerging

Brazil buyers have a strong message to suppliers, indicating interest broadly at...

…$445-455pt cfr, going down a further $10pt in step with the latest offer cuts

Corn, beans slide following newly bearish USDA crop data, and strong dollar

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

2700

'00

0t

DA

P (

red

, gre

en),

all

fert

s '0

00

t P

₂O₅

DAP stocks DAP Imports Local DAP Output (white bar) Local DAP Sales Local DAP price (Rs/t x 10) Sales total P₂O₅ (yellow line)

India DAP S&D: Imports slow over last 2 years, but inventory is now all but used

April 2015: Low opening stocks

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US DAP, MAP Balance

Exporter Dest Kt

Mosaic Brazil 65

Mex, C America 45

70

India 125

Canada (vessel) 0

Contracts & Mosaic system* 60

PCS No exports 0

MissPhos Output ceased 0

Local sales All producers 425

Total 790

Est. Production

Mosaic** (excl MES) 510

former CF 140

PCS Aurora & W Spr. 125

MissPhos Closed down 0

Total 775

Stock change end-April -15

** Mosaic is thought to be stabilising

output back at capacity through Q1, after

the Q4 cutbacks, but some interruptions at

Bartow and New Wales are reported.

* Mosaic contracts & off-shore sys: Japan,

Canada, Brazil, Colombia & Mexico – not

Argentina.

Mexico balance DAP, MAP

Jan, Feb

Fertinal Chile 35

Quantum Australia 40

Ameropa Australia 35

Fertinal Local, C Am 20

Mar, April

Fertinal Chile (D, M, T) 70

Local, C Am 17

Koch Australia 55

Ameropa Argentina 35

Total sales 305

Production Estimate Kt

Jan, Feb interruption 130

Mar, Apr Some TSP 160

Total 292

Stock change end April -13

Fertinal tight to end April, but will need to

tackle May exports soon

Summary (continued) This time last year, Indian buyers were adamant they would not pay above

$445pt cfr vs. offers in the $460s pt cfr. In the event, after drawn-out vacuum to

end May, Indian Q3 prices crossed into the $470s and $480s pt cfr. A year on,

the Rupee/US$ forex is a shade weaker, but the MRP cap is Determination to

continue deferral, not just in India but also farther afield, is widespread. This is

visible as buyers delay imports longer, hoping to undermine prices further.

Sellers are also determined, in this case to defend strong margins, and put

importer deferral capacity to the test. So, as the siege mentality goes on, there

are still big volume Q2 imports to do all over Asia and Latin America. Neither

side wishes to project any urgency.

The lack of activity now, with production running at near capacity rates

everywhere, means producers are going to build inventory, having “got by” on

the strength of the big north hemisphere domestic market demand in Q1. On the

export side, as with earlier months, minor price cuts have generally brought out

demand, as buyers reach the 11th hour with thin pipeline coverage. As Chinese

local offtake wanes into Q2, the key supply-side fundamental is Chinese

producer cohesion and discipline.

North America

US domestic: Last week’s increase on barges ready for tows at NOLA now

looks to have been a flash in the pan, many questioning if it happened on

sufficient volume to make any difference to the market. Late yesterday US

time, prompt NOLA DAP was competitively offered back at $415pst fob, with

no bid. Sellers look ready to take $410pst fob again. This is suggests a

narrower band in the middle of last week’s wide range. Upriver barges, are in

a different tier in the mid/high $420s/bu.

Wide range turns to narrow range: So competitive DAP offers with no

confirmed new business at NOLA (and stressing last week´s comments

about excluding upriver netbacks) were overall lower in a narrower band

at $405-407pst fob barge. Producers have disputed this, and claim higher,

although numerous traders reckoned holding long positions, recognise the

market is weak.

Same low-end reference: Today´s assessment repeats the last two low-

end published levels at $405pst fob over the last two weeks, a 7-month

low. As such, US still clearly has the lowest DAP/MAP prices worldwide.

Re-export: NOLA re-exports of MAP do not work to South America, but

are close on DAP to Asia.

Barge freights to up-river destinations are said in the range $16-18pst.

Central Florida trucks: Mosaic continues to sell phosphate fertilizers on

trucks from C Florida factories at $445pst fot for DAP and $465/st fot for

MAP. But with 5-6 cross gulf vessels into NOLA over the last month, part

1of which are for trader/distributor contracts, there are clearly strong

producer volumes in river markets.

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Morocco DAP, MAP, NP/Ks

OCP sales Kt

OCP Brazil MAP* 75

Ethiopia NPs 110

BADC B’desh 0

USA 0

West Europe 45

East Europe 10

South Africa 22

DAP & NPK W Africa 45

Local 50

Total sales 357

Production Estimate* Kt

OCP** 375

Total avail 375

Stock change end-April +18

* There are again heard to be two TSP/MAP

combo cargoes to OCP local port storage

and to Heringer in March (IVS Kite & MV

Dogan), March Jorf Lasfar output firmed to

around 450,000t of all gran products. This

reverted temporarily to strong fertilizer

granulation capacity as phosacid loads to

India slowed. This will reverse in April.

Tunisia balance

Sales Jan, Feb Kt

GCT Italy 15

France 22

Spain 9

Local 12

Sales Mar, April Kt

GCT Italy 15

France 18

Spain 12

Local 12

Total sale 115

Production Estimate Kt

Jan, Feb 80

Mar, April 65

Total avail 145

Stock change end-April +30

GCT is heard stable on Sfax (70%) & Gabes

TSP & DAP (50%).

US exports: Mosaic’s export DAP, MAP program for first-week April is firm,

with around 155,000t DAP, MAP & MES to Brazil, and panamax to India.

There are also some minor contract cargoes thought for Colombia and Japan,

plus some execution on around 15,000t of the formula business settled last

week (leaving 30-40,000t of this earlier spot sales for 2H April & early May).

Latin America Mexico: An earlier Fertinal sale to a trader for 33,000t MAP/DAP is set to load

on the MV Orient Tide headed to Argentina. Later in April, there is also

35,000t DAP, MAP and TSP in a combo lot to the group of Chile buyers. The

Argentina cargo was heard done at earlier, higher numbers, and the Chile

cargo is thought formula priced as usual. There are expected to be other

minor volume avails for the local market and to Central America.

Other destinations: DAP to Asia is often a possibility for Fertinal at this

time of the calendar year. Talks have been on/off via traders to India, but

as yet with about a $15pt gap between bids and seller targets. MAP &

TSP are generally preferable to Fertinal owing to the higher-intensive N

input for DAP.

Peru: A trader is heard working a minor lot of 5,500t DAP ex Zhanjiagang

(implying export of material from earlier production now in position in the

north) in combination with urea and SOP.

Brazil: Open-origin 11-52 MAP is heard on offer at $460pt cfr Brazil basis

end-April load; $465 cfr for 1H May load. Mosaic has a 25,000t MAP, MES

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

275

325

375

425

475

525

575

625

675

725

775

Soybean c/buDAP $pt & Corn c/bu

DAP vs Crops: Tampa & NOLA follow crops lower

CME Soybeans futures

DAP fob Tampa

DAP fob NOLA (metric equiv)

CME Corn futures

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Russia DAP, MAP balance

Phosagro sales Kt

Phosagro Europe (DAP) 30

EU, Turkey (NP/Ks) 25

India (10-26-26) 120

India DAP 40

East Eur (M, NPK) 30

Local, FSU (MAP) 60

Local, FSU (NPKs) 50

container SE Asia (D, NPKs) 25

Eurochem sales Kt

Eurochem E Eur, Baltic (M) 15

Nitron S America M 50

West Europe (D) 10

Local, FSU (MAP) 20

Total Sales 475

Production Estimate Kt

Phosagro Cherepovets D 55

Cherepovets M* 85

Balakovo M 60

NP/NPKs (all units) 210

Eurochem Fosforit M, D 65

Belorechensk. M 50

Total avail 525

Stock change end-April +50

Lithuania balance DAP

Lifosa Kt

Eurochem Benelux 10

Germany 15

France 15

UK, Ireland 6

Eurochem Baltic, all E Eur 15

Total sale 61

Production Estimate Kt

April 65

Total avail 65

Stock change end April +4

combination cargo due into Vila do Conde for mid-May arrival. This was

another cargo that took longer than usual to complete its full load at Tampa,

reportedly amid thin port stocks (high volumes going locally).

Argentina: Profertil was heard still in the market seeking further DAP/MAP

after last week’s or a minor 5-6,000t MAP at $475pt cfr. Offers were heard

either side of $480pt cfr for additional tonnage.

Europe, Africa Morocco: In the wake of the acid deals to India, and volumes noted last week

for Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, Jorf granulation in April should be around

350,000t DAP, MAP, NPKs & TSP.

Russia: A fresh Eurochem sale to a trader is heard at $446pt fob Baltic for

50,000t DAP/MAP to load in late April/early May. This looks all headed to

Latin America to cover in part earlier sales in the $470s pt cfr Argentina,

though at this price, the DAP (in sufficient volume) looks in theory profitable to

India or Pakistan.

Next load window: Russian offers for later into May are indicative at

$450pt fob, as producers try to set a bottom. No fresh import interest has

surfaced as yet to take out more 11-52 MAP.

225

275

325

375

425

475

525

575

625

675

$ p

t fo

b T

am

pa

DAP $pt fob Tampa back to end December 14 spot levels

Low liquidity undermine Tampa status as world benchmark

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Australia balance DAP, MAP

IPL, Quantum Oct, Nov, Dec Kt

Quantum Pakistan (2 lots) 60

Vietnam 20

IPL Local W Auz 45

New Zealand 15

S Auz, Tasm 80

IPL, Quantum Jan, Feb, Mar Kt

IPL local S & W Auz 125

Victoria 65

NSW 60

Total sale 470

Production Estimate Kt

Q4 250

Q1 250

Total avail 500

Stock change end-Mar +25

* IPL near nameplate output rates

250kt/qu, amid strong local Q1 demand

Jordan balance DAP

JPMC Aug, Sept Kt

KT Turkey 25

Aries Turkey 20

JPMC India (2 lots) 75

JPMC Oct, Nov, Dec Kt

JPMC IPL, India 80

IPL, India 50

Trammo, EU 20

KT, Turkey 30

Jan, Feb, Mar Kt

JPMC Turkey MAP 11

India IPL x 3 195

Italy 4

Total sales 510

Production Estimate Kt

Aug, Sept 130

Oct, Nov 120

Dec, Jan 120

Feb, Mar 100

Total avails 470

Stock change end-Mar +40

DAP to India: There are reports in India of up to 150,000t of Russian DAP

placed by Phosagro in India as combination exports with 3 existing sales

of 10-26-26. The NPKs were heard sold in earlier business to 3 importers

through the $420s pt cfr. The DAP, which is guaranteed 18-46 material,

was said at $485pt cfr, at the high end of recent Chinese DAP exports but

competitive with the last round of DAP exports from Saudi Arabia.

East Africa: A freight enquiry is in circulation for 20-23,000t NP/MAP North

China/Mozambique.

South Asia India: Rumours from India of some 450-650,000t in new Chinese export

business have emerged this week, all claimed at lower prices of $475-480pt

cfr India. This is an interesting development while Chinese producers and

almost all traders testing on new positions talk of flat fob claims at $470-475pt

fob China for FCO-compliant dark coloured DAP at guaranteed spec 18-46.

Freight rates are also marginally higher to $10pt for panamax volumes and to

$14-15pt for handysize lots China/India. The India claims coincided with small-

volume Brazilian MAP business so far at $460pt cfr.

The timing of the new business claimed is interesting coming just one

week prior to a fresh Chinese Phosphate Fertilizer Industry Associating

Seminar in Beijing (Profercy Phosphates is giving a presentation at this

event), and a big industry conference in the subsequent days. Anticipated

tactics on both sides were for both Chinese exporter and Indian buyers to

test the opposite side out longer. Feedback on the sell-side so far

indicated that DAP offers were to remain unchanged.

No DoF posting on MRP or subsidy yet: Over the last few weeks, the

lack of official postings on price cap maximums and on subsidy has held

back many of the buyers outside the government agencies and the big co-

operative buyers. It is thought unusual that so many buyers would move

on DAP in such a rush without an official posting.

Spread to MAP in Brazil: Competitive market rates for DAP in India and

Pakistan are $25-35pt higher than those for regular origin 11/52 MAP.

RCF tender: RCF is still in negotiations over its next imports of DAP

required into the East Coast. There are rumours competitive offers slipped

a few ticks into the high $480s pt cfr EC from the initially sharpest number

at $491pt cfr. Offers into India ex Saudi have not been floated as yet for

May loading. RCF may eventually decide it will take just one lot in the

mid/high $480s pt cfr, and leave the balance (up to 65,000t DAP) for

another time. Deferral in Asia is so far not working as a means to cut

prices in the East, as it is on MAP in the West.

Spot importer break-even: Today’s average spot importer DAP break-

even is variously said in the mid $480s to low/mid $490s pt cfr India,

according to varying takes on what levels the DoF will eventually publish

for MRP (seen at Rs23,700pt – Rs24,000pt), and subsidy (likely

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unchanged at Rs12,350pt. Most business in India

on around 700,000t DAP imports from all sources

finalised to date was between $478-490/t cfr, the

low end Chinese, the high end Saudi Arabian.

First US/India panamax: A big mid-April-load

panamax carrying around 65,000t DAP is heard

fixed at Tampa to WC India. If confirmed, this

would be the first Mosaic DAP export of the new

Indian fertilizer year, most likely for Mosaic’s own

system. As of today, with the Indian Rupee at just

over Rs62/$1, and calls for the local max retail

cap at Rs23,750-24,000pt and subsidy at

Rs12,350pt, Mosaic’s own system break-even

would be range $497-503pt cfr WC India.

Pakistan: A combination of an uptick in freight rates

and the tough stance in China on DAP 18-46 dark

colour material (favourite in the local China market as

well as across most of Asia) is prompting traders to

raise delivered levels to the low/mid $490s pt cfr

Karachi. So far importers are keeping their distance.

As in many markets, buyers are confused by the

slump on MAP in the West and the relatively firm DAP

prices in most markets East of Suez.

Bangladesh: Traders are taking the first detailed look

at preparing offers for upcoming private sector interest

estimated to be for around 600,000t DAP to load May

to August. This market favours, and pays a premium,

for dark DAP 18/46 from certain Chinese factories and

from Australia.

East Asia, Pacific China export: Producers indicate they are still taking

a cool approach to export business, with DAP export

indications are still said in the low/mid $470s pt fob

China for 18-46 dark colour to load in May, according

to lot size and destination. Rather than domestic

demand vs export, the dynamic now depends on

producer cohesion. Granular MAP 11-44 is still offered

by most exporters in the low/mid $360s pt fob, still

unworkable in Latin America.

Tactics: The exporter belief is that many big DAP

importers in Asia have deferred close to the max.

This is similar to the days of the high and low-tax

windows, hoping to time their imports to start with

a tail off in the main.

period of local DAP, MAP demand. The producer

lobby, while it can hold together, is offering

uniform export pricing.

Port inventories, net end-March impact: DAP

port inventories are reported down quite a sharp

100,000t vs. mid-March to around 225,000t as

cargo loading to India, Pakistan and SE Asia

outpaced refill of export-ready material. MAP

stocks rose about 60,000t, to about 200,000t.

Neither figure is an overwhelming total, but it is

likely a trend is for increasing port stocks is now

on the cards

China domestic: DAP is moving strong in the north

and northeast with prices little changed as below, but

MAP is weakening. The internal market for all

products is peaking, and as such, it is in the process

of disconnecting from local production. Most of current

April runs will end up for export, therefore. MAP is

seeing the impact of lower NPK intensity, and some

corresponding erosion in prices

Local spot DAP prices are flat either side of

RMB2,995pt fot ex warehouse in north and NE

markets (low $480s pt ). This reflects +/-

RMB2,700pt fot (mid $430s) ex works southwest

production plants, or near $490pt fob China port

export tax paid, of course unachievable in any

offshore market.

MAP 11-44 powder is selling in the local market in

the RMB1,990s pt fot ex works (near $320 pt fot),

equivalent to the high $360s pt fob China port

export tax paid. The premium for gMAP in the

limited-volume local market for this grade is about

RMB100pt (16-17pt), but like DAP, local market

activity is tailing off.

NPK: Chinese local commodity NPK prices look

to have run out of steam from the season peak

just gone, with MOP-based local 15-15-15 broadly

in the RMB1,950s pt fot ex works ($315pt fot).

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DAP $ BULK 9 Apr 2 Apr Tampa, US Gulf fob 470-475 470-475

Simulated net on Brazil, Arg spot* 450-452 450-452

Netbk on Mosaic India system** 470-472 470-472

KSA fob 482-492 482-492

Baltic, Black Sea fob 446-455 465-480

Morocco fob 490-510 490-510

Tunisia fob 505-510 505-510

**China fob (low tax paid +RMB100pt) 470-480 470-480

Mexico fob 470-473 475-480

Jordan fob 470-490 470-490

India cfr spot 482-490 482-490

Brazil cfr 470-472 470-472

Argentina, Uruguay cfr 475-485 475-485

Pakistan cfr 489-490 489-490

Benelux, N France fob/fot 535-545 535-545

NOLA fob barge (st) 406-408 405-420

Florida fot (st) 445-450 445-450

China fot bgd ex wks ($ equiv.) 435-438 435-438 * on any-origin business to Brazil, Arg ** net internal costs, taxes, forex, on Rs24kpt

NPK, NP $ BULK 9 Apr 2 Apr 16-16-16 fob FSU 300-360 300-360

16-16-16 fob FSU China netbk. 360-365 360-365

10-26-26 fob FSU 370-395 370-395

20-20-0 fob East Europe 315-320 315-320

19-38-0 7S fob Morocco 445-455 445-455

10-26-26 cfr India 425-428 425-428

16-16-16 cfr China 390-395 390-395

9-25-25 cfr NW Europe 425-430 425-430

15-15-15 cfr W Africa 349-351 349-351

16-16-16 cfr SE Asia 380-385 380-385

16-20-0 cfr SE Asia 295-300 295-300

0-30-10 fot ex store Brazil 375-380 395-405

15-15-15 fot ex wks China* 310-315 310-320

15-15-15 (SOP) fot ex wks China 358-365 358-365

25-13-7 fot ex wks N China 295-300 295-305

10-10-20 fot ex wks S China 280-285 285-290

EU NPK, NP (inland €) 9 Apr 2 Apr

15-15-15 cif bulk Benelux 340-350 340-350

17-17-17 cif bulk France 390-395 390-395

0-25-25 cif France 340-345 340-345

8-24-24 del bgd Italy 345-355 345-355

20-10-10 del bgd Italy 340-350 340-350

8-24-8 del bgd Spain 330-340 330-340

20-10-10 del bgd UK £ 294-300 294-300

SSP $ BULK 9 Apr 2 Apr Egypt fob 155-158 155-158

Spain fob ($ equiv) 150-153 150-153

Italy € fot bgd ex store 195-200 195-200

Brazil fot ex store inland 295-305 295-305

INPUTS (+/- $pt of DAP) Apr (Mar) +/-

Ammonia cfr Tampa 475 (475) =

cfr Morocco 435 (440) -1

cfr India 440 (465) -6

del wks China 445 (445) =0

Sulphur plt cfr Tampa Q1/Q4 147 (129) +9

cfr N Africa Q1/Q4 155 (140) +6

ex-warehouse China 195 (185) +4

MAP $ BULK 9 Apr 2 Apr Baltic, Black Sea fob * 446-455 455-460

Tampa fob 470-475 470-475

Morocco fob 490-515 490-515

KSA fob 465-470 465-470

China fob (10-50) 410-415 410-415

China fob (11-44) 365-370 365-370

Brazil cfr (11-52) 460-470 470-472

Brazil cfr (11-44) 388-390 388-390

Brazil fot ex-store inland 120d 530-550 560-570

TSP $ BULK 9 Apr 2 Apr Morocco fob 395-400 395-400

Tunisia fob 405-410 405-410

Mexico fob 388-390 388-390

China fob *corrects typo 320-325 320-325

Lebanon fob 380-385 380-385

Brazil cfr 357-360 357-360

Benelux. N France € fob/fot 365-375 365-375

Speciality NPK, NP+S US$ Mar Feb MKP fob China 1190-1210 1190-1210

MKP fot ex wks (local RMB) 6800-6875 6800-6875

MKP cfr West Europe 1290-1300 1290-1300

MKP cfr Brazil 1295-1310 1295-1310

Tech MAP 12-61-0 cfr EU* 915-985 915-985

UP 17-44 cfr West Europe 820-830 820-830

12-40-0 10S 1Zn fot Florida pst 495-500 490-495 MKP 0-52-34; UP = Urea Phosphate * Low-end Chinese origin

PHOSACID MGA $pt P2O5 Q1 ‘15 Q4 ‘14 Morocco fob 725-935 680-865

India cfr 30d 1H 2015 805 765

West Europe cfr Q4 14 950-1,000 900-960

Brazil cfr Q4 14 950-965 950-965

PHOSPHATE ROCK $ P2O5 Q1 ‘15

Morocco fob 31-33% 125-130

China fot 29-31% 79-83

Syria fob 29-30% 86-89

Peru fob 30% 70-80

Algeria fob 29-30% 82-85

Tunisia fob 27-28% n.m.

Egypt fob 30-31% 75-85

Egypt fob 27-28% 62-68

Jordan fob 34-36% 125-130

Togo fob 35-36% 120-125

Russia fob 38-39% 168-188

Russia domestic del ($ equ.) 38-39% 150-155

India cfr 29-30% 87-95

India cfr 33-34% 133-140

International Prices $ per tonne bulk Profercy Phosphates SC pricing represents last known spot or

contract sales. Absent new trades, competitive indications will

apply; i.e. top bid in rising market or low offer in a falling market.

Netbacks on contract sales, formula or otherwise, may feature.

International quotes are for 4kt lots & above, rounded up to the

nearest US$. Italics = no recent business; n.m. = no market