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28 April 2016

Published by

Profercy Ltd

Editor Clive Yearsley

DEVELOPMENTS

P1 China supports market in Indian tender

P2 Egyptian prices hold on

spot demand from Turkey

P2 M East scoops bulk of

Indian business

P2 Chinese domestic prices a

better option than India

P4 US slow, prices drift

P5 Lower forward prices in Latin America

P6 UAN: Prices under severe

pressure

P6 AN: Brazil reflects sub-

$160pt fob FSU

P7 Ammonia: Tampa up

$10pt, Asia tight

P8 Profercy Price Table

KEY PRICES

Prilled urea: $205-210pt

fob Yuzhnyy

Granular urea: $215-233pt

fob M East

Ammonia: $270-275pt

fob Yuzhnyy

Global Urea Position

China’s firm pricing stance continues to provide short-term benefits for

producers elsewhere. This week’s Indian tender is testament to this with the

Middle East suppliers able to achieve $218pt fob for spot sales to India and

traders with positions able to sell at equivalent netbacks. Iran has also been

successful committing its May tonnage. LOIs for the awards are expected 29

April. The upshot of the Middle East sales to India is that some May tonnage

that could have chased business in Latin America or elsewhere is no longer

available.

The high price of Chinese granular ($228pt fob) has also been a positive for

other suppliers with an inquiry from Central America resulting in a sale of

FSU product around $205-208pt fob Baltic. FSU prills meanwhile are holding

above $205pt fob in both the Baltic and Black Sea. This has helped Egypt

hold prices at $220pt fob for prompt sales to southern Turkey although May

is wide open.

Algeria, which has been under pressure of late, needs to place May

tonnage. Further sales to the USA seem likely in May although Latin

America could also be an outlet if the gap left by Middle East sales to India

supports prices. Brazil currently reflects $210pt fob. As regards the USA, the

market has been uneventful with prices concluded in the high-$220s ps ton

fob Nola for prompt and first half May at $223-225ps ton. There are hopes of

major refilling supporting Gulf prices in May but traders/importers’ appetites

for securing more product for late May/June arrival will probably be limited.

Beyond May, and with the USA and Europe out of the demand picture, the

expectation remains that prices will ease. The extent to which China will

chase export business from that point will determine how fast and how much

prices will decline.

150

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J14

F M A M J J A S O N D J15

F M A M J J A S O N D J16

F M A M J J A S O N D

$ptArab Gulf spot values supported by Indian sales

Arab Gulf spot fob India cfr

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Urea Supply - West

Black Sea

Yuzhnyy: Producers continue to ask $210pt fob for

May shipments. Bids from traders are reported at $206-

207pt fob for nearby destinations. There is also interest

for east coast Mexico.

One trader has been bidding around $205pt fob for a

cargo for shipment to India. Unless a large cargo, over

50,000t, can be secured, freight costs are likely to prove

too high to support business in India.

OPZ is reported to have around 15,000t available for

May and DniproAzot a similar volume.

Trammo is in the freight market for a 3,000t cargo to

Haifa, loading early May.

Baltic

Prilled prices are put at $205-207pt fob. All May

tonnage is virtually committed with Phosagro having

one cargo left but other suppliers sold out.

Uralchem: The company is sold out for May following

earlier sales to Peru, Africa and Mexico. Uralchem

reports that the next available cargo will be for first half

June shipment.

Phosagro: One May cargo is available and is reported

to have been offered in Central America.

SBU: Owing to maintenance, the company is next

expected to have a cargo for end-May/early-June

shipment.

Grodno: The producer is expected to resume urea

exports end-May/early-June.

Salavat: Following its sales tender Salavat has sold 2 x

5,000t of prilled urea to Dreymoor for May shipment

from the factory.

Mendeleevsk: Trammo has been linked with the sale of

a Mendeleevsk cargo to Incofe.

Africa/Mediterranean

Egypt: Latest sales have been concluded at $221pt fob

with high Black Sea prices supporting sales for Turkey.

HFC closed a sales tender 27 April for 15,000t of

granular urea for prompt shipment with a trader

reported to have purchased the product around $221pt

fob. MOPCO sold 10,000t earlier at the same price level

to Vertiqal.

OCI has sold two 4,000t lots of granular urea at $221pt

fob equivalent. The cargoes are for the west

Mediterranean.

Keytrade is in the freight market for 22,500t from

Damietta to Iskenderun, Turkey, loading early May.

Helm is seeking a vessel for 4,000t from Damietta to

Sete loading this week.

Algeria: Sorfert has a full loading scheduled for first half

May. AOA is looking to place May cargoes inviting

interest from potential buyers for Latin America/US Gulf.

Current Brazilian cfr levels reflect around $210pt fob

Algeria. US Gulf barge prices for June point to $200pt

fob.

Under earlier business:

Helm is in the freight market for 25,000t granular urea to load 8-10 May for Tuxpan Mexico covering its sale of Sorfert product to Pronamex.

Ameropa is seeking a vessel for 4,000t for Alicante and Tarragona, loading early May.

Trammo fixed a vessel around $17pt for Fairless Hills USA.

Nigeria: Indorama has started production of ammonia

at its new complex. Urea will start shortly with the first

output for the domestic market. Exports are expected to

begin end May/June.

Spain: Fertiberia’ Puertollano complex will shut down

13 May-21 June for revamping work to improve the

energy efficiency of the ammonia unit.

The cost of the work, which will afford a 7% efficiency

gain, is €9m. The complex houses capacity for

200,000t/y ammonia, 215,000t/y CAN, 120,000t/y urea

and 120,000t/y UAN.

Urea Supply – East Middle East: The majority of spot tonnage for May has

been placed into India, offering returns of around

$218pt fob Arab Gulf. Up to five cargoes have been

placed with one producer supplying a cargo direct.

Freight to west coast India is currently $7-8pt for 30-

40,000t.

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Returns for contract cargoes to the US Gulf for first half

May arrival remain just above $220pt fob, although, at

present, June values are far lower. Possibly as a result,

one trader has opted to move a contract cargo to Brazil,

currently offering returns around $215pt fob.

However, lower spot returns are being reflected by

sales into other Latin American markets, Colombia and

Argentina. In the latter a netback closer to $200pt fob is

indicated for part of the cargo sold this week.

Kuwait: PIC has sold a cargo to a trader, thought to be Continental, for shipment to India around $218pt fob. Two cargoes are expected for Latin America next month, one via Nitron, as well as a cargo for Thailand.

Qatar: CHS is expected to load a cargo for Ecuador and Colombia in May. Fitco and Ameropa are understood to have cargoes for Brazil.

Oman: 2-3 cargoes are understood to have been placed in India by traders. Both Keytrade and Ameropa are expected to load before 15 May, with Koch possibly loading for India from mid-May.

May spot tonnage is now understood to have been committed.

UAE: Trammo is in the freight market for 40,000t of granular urea to load Ruwais UAE 11-15 May for Vitoria-Rio Grande range Brazil. Nitron has a cargo to load in May.

Iran: Around 200,000t of Iranian product have been placed into India via Global Transnational and Tng.

Middle East Export Sales April

Prills

Supplier Shipper Dest ‘000t

Qatar Bdesh 25

60/m Iraq 20

S Arabia Bdesh 25

50k/m

Total 70

Prod/m 110

Granular

Supplier Shipper Dest ‘000t

Bah/Kuw Gavilon USA 40

140k/m Indagro L America 30

Thailand 25

Oman Nitron? Arg Uru 55

100k/m Koch Brazil 40

Koch 30

Qatar Yara/Other USA 90

350k/m Yara Thailand 30

Yara Brazil 50

RSA 25

Fitco Brazil 45

Australia 50

Prod losses 80

S Arabia Turnaround 50

320k/m Ameropa Australia 30

Thailand 40

Gavilon RSA 25

RSA 30

N Zealand 25

USA 60

UAE Trammo USA 40

160/m Koch S Korea 20

Ethiopia 28

Bangladesh 25

Australia 30

Total 993

Prod/m 1170

Prilled/granular 1063

Prilled and granular prod/m 1280

China: A modest 120,000t-180,000t is understood to

have been committed to India by traders, with two

traders reported to have had some backing around

$217pt fob for a total of two cargoes. Following the

tender, producers and domestic traders have been

quoting prilled urea at $218-220pt fob and above for

port inventory to those bidding for cargoes to India.

Fresh cargoes were offered at higher levels up to

$225pt fob earlier in the week.

Granular urea for prompt shipment is quoted at $228pt

fob following business last week for Chile and South

Korea in the high-$220s pt fob. Further out China Coal

is offering granular urea at $225pt fob claiming to have

been bid at $220pt fob. Fudao will have granular

available second half May.

Demand in the domestic market has eased but is still

affording producers returns reflecting $230pt fob for

export cargoes. Port inventory is currently put at a

manageable 0.9-1.0m. tonnes.

Some Chinese industry associations are forecasting

that daily urea production could drop to 185kt/day in

May from 193kt/day as a consequence of the increase

in electricity prices for small to medium sized urea

producers (see 14 April report). Small producers,

representing close to 40m. tonnes/year capacity are

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facing up to $14-15pt higher electricity costs following

the recent changes.

Latest business:

Both Dreymoor and Aries are expected to ship at least 60,000t each to India against the MMTC tender.

Ameropa and Kolon will supply 5-6,000t cargoes of granular to Dongbu South Korea.

Latest Export Statistics: Customs figures put Chinese

urea exports at 908,000t in March, down 38% on March

2015. The Q1 total of 2.96m. tonnes was one third

down on Q1 2015. The March total comprised an

estimated 0.5m. tonnes of granular urea with the USA

the main destination for 246,000t. Mexico took

120,000t. Q1 urea production was 17.6m. tonnes, up

3.5% on Q1 2015.

The rolling 12-month export total from April 2015 to

March 2016 was 12.3m. tonnes, down almost 4m.

tonnes or 24% on the all-time high of 16.2m. tonnes in

July 2014-June 2015. The rate of decrease has

accelerated slightly since mid-2015 with the July-March

2015 total 10m. tonnes versus 13.9m. tonnes (-28%) for

the same period one year ago.

Indonesia: A freight inquiry is circulating for 6,000t of

granular urea from Bontang to Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam,

loading 8-9 May against earlier business.

Urea Demand - West

Europe/Med

Italy: Despite bad weather urea prices are holding at

€250pt FCA big bags Ravenna, same as last week.

Inquiry is evident for urea but importers are seeking

loading by 10 May in Egypt. This is proving difficult

given the port congestion in Damietta following the

recent number of sales. Russian granular due to arrive

shortly in Italy is on offer.

France: Buyers’ price ideas for granular urea for first

half June are sub-$210pt fob Egypt equivalent.

Turkey: Demand for urea in the south is being covered

from Egypt with 30,000t placed this week at $220-221pt

fob.

North America

US Gulf: Wet weather continues to limit demand and

the market remains inactive. While planting progress

has been positive in the US, terminals have been able

to rely on the steady flow of barges from Nola booked

earlier.

On the positive side, some weather reports indicate that

a sustained period of dry weather could begin in the

next 10 days. Despite the recent weather, many

sources report positive warehouse movement and still

expect healthy demand upriver for refill in May.

Further, while the import volume for April was large, the

May line-up appears slim and few believe the market to

be oversupplied. Indeed, there have been no major

additions to the import line-up for May or June for some

time.

With demand for prompt cargoes slim, premiums for

near-term barges have fallen and are now comfortably

below $230ps ton Nola. Latest trades have been down

to $225ps ton fob Nola. First half May values are in the

low to mid-$220s ps ton Nola, with bids for all May at

$215ps ton not leading to any sales.

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Imports: There have been no additions to the line-up

for May or June although further Algerian cargoes are

possible.

US Gulf/ec Gran Urea Imports 2015/16

Origin Shipper ‘000t Arrival

Various July-Dec 2766

Various Jan 491

Various Feb estimate 471

Mar estimate 620

S Arabia 60

PIC 80

UAE Trammo/Dreymoor 80

Qatar 135

Oman Keytrade/Ameropa 100

China Gavilon/ PetroChina/

Koch

250

Russia Eurochem 50

Trinidad 40

Indonesia Koch 45

China Trammo 30

Indonesia Dreymoor 44

Algeria Koch/Ameropa 80

Egypt Trammo/OCI 55

Apr estimate 1059

Kuwait Gavilon 40

Qatar 90

S Arabia 60

Russia 40

Trinidad 25

UAE Trammo 40

Algeria Koch/Key/Helm 90

Algeria Trammo 20

May estimate 410

Total 5827

July-May 2015 6271

Corn: Corn prices have fallen back this week, but

remain well above the low levels seen in early April.

Having surpassed $4.00/bu momentarily last week, the

nearby May contract was trading around $3.80/bu for

much of the week before advancing to $3.89/bu. The

high end for December contracts has been around

$3.96/bu, down from $4.03/bu last week.

Latin America

Brazil: Granular urea continues to be offered around

$230pt cfr with some business done at this level. Many

traders/buyers are opting to rely on formula pricing

given the recent high levels achieved for Arab Gulf

product in India.

Trammo will load 40,000t of Fertil UAE granular for

Brazil in early May. Part of this cargo is reported to

have been sold at $230pt cfr.

Central America: Following the 25 April tender Incofe

booked a cargo of Russian granular urea from Trammo.

The cfr price has been put around $241pt with freight

around $33pt for 3 ports (Buenaventura, Barranquilla

and Caldera). The 25,000t prilled requirement will be

retendered 2 May for 25 May-5 June shipment.

Colombia: Ciamsa is reported to have bought 12,000t

of Middle East (Kuwait/Bahrain) granular from CHS at

$239pt cfr.

Mexico: Agrogen (10,000t) and other buyers are in the

market for prilled urea for the east coast. Total demand

for May shipment is put at 40-50,000t. Ameropa will

load 30-35,000t in Kotka sold to various buyers at

around or over $220pt cfr.

Argentina: Nitron is reported to have sold 5,000t of

granular urea to Nidera at $225pt cfr. This is believed to

be from a 30,000t Fertil UAE cargo due to load first half

May for Argentina and Uruguay. Other sales from the

vessel were made earlier. Freight from Ruwais to 2-3

ports is put in the $20-23pt range.

Urea Demand - East

Asia/Pacific Rim

India: Up to 550,000t have been awarded following the

25 April MMTC tender which saw counters at $226.92pt

cfr east coast and $227.60pt cfr west coast.

LOIs are due to be issued by MMTC on 29 April with

current awards only confirmed verbally.

Trader Origin Volume (kt)

Ameropa Oman 40-42

Keytrade Oman 40-42

Koch Oman 40-42

Continental Kuwait 35

Fertil UAE 25

Aries China 60

Dreymoor China 120

Global

Transnational

Iran 80

Tng Iran 100

Total 540-546

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It is possible the Global award will increase to 140,000t.

Comzest has been linked by some sources with a cargo

from China.

The healthy volume awarded suggests that India will

not need to return to the market until the second-half of

May for June shipments.

Pakistan: Urea sales were down 73% in March versus

March 2015 due to weak farm demand. Urea stocks

were put at 1.2m. tonnes, up from 0.8m. tonnes at the

end of February. NFML is holding close to 280,000t of

imported urea. Demand has remained weak in April

with farmers’ incomes hit by crop losses and

expectations that prices will decrease further. Meeting

those expectations, the finance minister announced a

Rup 70per bag cut in urea prices on 27 April. In a

meeting with government representatives and local

producers it was noted that urgent measures are

needed to cut urea prices to stimulate demand.

Thailand: Lack of rain and low dam levels remain a

major concern for importers of granular urea. With urea

stocks high, it is possible that some contract shipments

will be deferred.

South Korea: Pungnong's tender for 6,000t of granular

urea for delivery by 13 May is reported to have attracted

first round offers in the low to mid-$240s pt cfr.

Last granular urea sales into South Korea, concluded

earlier, reflected the high-$220s pt fob China.

Vietnam: Indonesian prilled urea is being offered for

May shipment at $235pt cfr.

UAN Solutions In contrast to urea UAN prices are weakening. An

inquiry from Argentina brought offers of May tonnage at

$140pt fob FSU equivalent with the buyer seeking

$10pt less for a slightly later shipment. In France

prompt prices are down while new season offers are at

€140pt FCA Rouen, reflecting sub $135pt fob Egypt.

France: UAN 30 is being offered for summer at €140pt

FCA Rouen, below $160pt cfr and below $135pt fob

Egypt. Prices for May, current season, are around

€173-175pt FCA.

As regards summer fill, it is believed that as much as

750,000t has been sold forward – sales started at

€170pt FCA Rouen. Some of the earlier sales have

been covered from Lithuania for May shipment as well

as Russia.

CF Industries is understood to have 40,000t committed

to Invivo for June shipment from the USA.

USA: On the east coast latest business for second half

May arrival has been concluded in the mid-$190s pt cfr.

Product arriving first half May is fully committed.

A second cargo of Polish UAN is understood to have

been booked for the US east coast.

In the Gulf there is limited interest in new barges

leaving a wide gap on prompt/may offers of $185-200ps

ton fob. In the Midwest prices are steady at $235-250ps

ton on the rivers.

Argentina: Bunge is claiming to have booked a cargo

of UAN for early-June shipment in the mid-$170s pt cfr

two port discharge. Offers for May were some $10pt

higher.

Egypt: Abu Qir is understood to be still looking to place

UAN after its recent run of sales tenders.

Nitrates/Sulphates Further sales of FSU ammonium nitrate have been

made around $165pt fob into North Africa. However,

Brazilian prices now reflect sub-$160pt fob FSU

following business down to $180pt cfr.

Amsul prices are stable in the west while Chinese

caprolactam grade is put around $110pt fob. Some

consider prices slightly firm following recent sales into

the Americas.

Black Sea: Caprolactam grade amsul is put at around

$120pt fob. Steel grade (standard product) is around

$115pt fob for May with low production rates in the steel

sector continuing to squeeze supply.

Latest AN sales into nearby markets have been

concluded down to the mid-$160s pt fob Black Sea.

Eurochem is in the freight market for 25,000t of AN from

Novorossisk to Paranagua Brazil prompt. This is

thought to be for Herringer (see last week’s report).

Morocco: 6,000t of AN have been sold at a price

reflecting the mid-$160s pt fob. Vertiqal has been linked

with the business.

Brazil: Latest sales of AN have been made at $180-

185pt cfr.

China: Capro grade ammonium sulphate continues to

be quoted in the $108-110pt fob range for bulk

shipments. Container sales have been reported $2-3pt

above this level.

A freight inquiry is circulating for 25,000t of amsul from

Ningbo to Gresik, Indonesia, loading second half May.

This is understood to support an earlier sale by

Samsung.

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A separate inquiry is circulating for 12,000t from Ningbo

or Dafeng, China to Subic or Davao, Philippines,

loading from 20 May.

Ammonia Further sales of Middle East product for May have been

concluded at $350pt fob and possibly above while the

latest sale to India has been at $400pt cfr. Thus, the

huge price differential between East and West is being

maintained with prices in the latter staying relatively flat

despite some tightness for May shipment.

Demonstrating this, the latest Tampa conclusion for

May was just $10pt above the level that has prevailed

for the past three months.

Beyond May, the tight position in the East may change

with Saudi Arabian capacity back on stream. On the

positive side in the West BASF will continue to take

multiple cargoes while Moroccan import demand should

remain heavy. However, the US position will change

possibly freeing ammonia for export from the Gulf and

releasing more Caribbean product for other markets.

Yuzhnyy: OPZ is reported to be in discussions to place

the 15-16,000t of ammonia it will have available in May.

The producer is targeting $280pt fob. Koch is one of the

companies looking to buy.

Vessels due to load early May for Ameropa are:

The Clipper Odin 23,000t for Tunisia, the Clipper Mars

40,000t for India, the Solaro for Antwerp and the Gas

Grouper for Morocco. The Cobia will then load for

Antwerp. This totals 132,000t.

Yuzhnyy line up April

4 Gas Cobia 23 Turkey Ameropa

6 N Grace 12 Turkey Trammo

8 Solaro 25 Belgium Ameropa

13 C Odin 23 Morocco Ameropa

17 Manta 23 Belgium Ameropa

17 Grouper 23 Jordan Ameropa

18 Cobia 23 Belgium Ameropa

23 Brussels 23 Morocco OCP

29 N Grace 15 Turkey Trammo

25-30 Snapper 23 India Ameropa

Total 213

Baltic: Suppliers’ price ideas for May are in the $280s

pt fob.

Belgium: Eurochem has booked a spot cargo of

ammonia for 20 May delivery to Antwerp from Trammo

ex-Algeria. PCS is expected to load the Libramont

shortly for BASF, arriving mid-May.

Morocco: Having covered its May requirements OCP is

now turning its attention to June. No sales have been

reported to date although it is expected that just one

cargo of Togliatti product will be shipped.

OCP is currently consuming around 3,500t/d of

ammonia.

Nigeria: The Marycam Swan will head to Spain/Turkey

from Nigeria for Trammo.

Middle East: PIC has sold 15,000t of ammonia for mid-

May to Mitsui at a formula-based price expected to

exceed $350pt fob. Mitsui has also booked 8,000t from

Fertil UAE at $350pt fob.

India: Mitsui has sold 8,000t of ammonia to Deepak at

$400pt cfr.

USA: The Tampa price for May was settled late last

week at $320pt cfr, $10pt above the level prevailing

February through April.

Trammo will load the Touraine in Trinidad early May for

the US Gulf.

Profercy price listings follow on the next page

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$p

t

Ammonia: M. East spot fob price remains above Tampa cfr

Tampa cfr

M East fob

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retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, without the prior written permission of the Copyright owner. 08

Profercy International Prices $pt

Urea prilled bulk 28 Apr 21 Apr

Yuzhnyy fob 205-210 205-210

Baltic – ice affected fob 205-208 202-207

Baltic – ice free fob 205-208 202-207

Romania fob NM NM

Arab Gulf fob 215-218 215-220

China fob 217-220 220-225

Mediterranean cfr duty paid 230-235 230-235

Brazil cfr 215-220 215-220

EC Central America cfr 220-225 218-223

WC Central America cfr 222-227 220-225

India cfr 227-228 220-225

SE Asia cfr 230-235 225-230

Urea granular bulk (spot) 28 Apr 21 Apr

Arab Gulf fob US cargoes 217-233 217-240

Arab Gulf fob spot price 215-219 215-220

Arab Gulf full range 215-233 215-240

Malaysia/Indonesia fob 218-223 218-223

China fob 223-228 223-228

SE Asia cfr 225-230 225-230

Baltic fob 200-207 200-205

Egypt fob 220-221 218-223

Algeria fob 215-220 216-220

North Africa full range fob 215-221 216-223

France (Atlantic) cfr 225-230 225-230

Caribbean fob 221-236 221-244

US Gulf pst fob prompt/7 days 225-229 227-235

US Gulf pst fob to 30 days 215-229 215-235

US Gulf metric cfr to 30 days 231-247 231-254

Brazil cfr 225-230 225-232

Nitrates 28 Apr 21 Apr

AN Baltic fob bulk 160-165 163-170

AN Black Sea fob bulk 160-165 165-172

AN France € deld bulk 239-240 239-240

AN UK fot £ bagged 170-175 170-175

CAN Germany € cif bulk 190-205 190-210

UAN 28 Apr 21 Apr

UAN France € fot 173-175 180-181

US ec cfr 195-205 200-205

US ps ton fob Nola 185-195 185-195

UAN FSU fob Black Sea 155-165 160-170

UAN Romania/Egypt fob 155-165 160-165

Am. Sulphate bulk 28 Apr 21 Apr

Black Sea fob (white) 118-122 118-122

Black Sea fob (standard) 113-115 100-105

Baltic/NW Europe (white) 118-122 118-122

China fob (caprolactam) 108-110 105-110

Brazil cfr sight 130-135 130-135

SE Asia cfr 118-123 115-122

AMMONIA 28 Apr 21 Apr

Yuzhnyy fob 270-275 270-275

Baltic fob 280-285 275-280

Arabian Gulf fob (spot) 348-353 345-355

NW Europe cfr duty free/pd 340-345 340-345

North Africa cfr 310-315 305-310

Tampa cfr 320 310

India cfr (spot) 380-400 370-390

Publisher Profercy Ltd.

Editor: Clive Yearsley

W: www.profercy.com

E: fertilizers@profercy.com

T: +44 1372 386 205

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