7 th European Space Weather Week, Brugge, 15 Nov 2010 Recent Programmatic Developments in the UK...

7th European Space Weather Week, Brugge, 15 Nov 2010

Recent Programmatic Recent Programmatic Developments in the UK Developments in the UK

Mike Hapgood, Alan Mike Hapgood, Alan Thomson, Thomson, Bryn Jones and Richard HorneBryn Jones and Richard Horne

[email protected]@stfc.ac.uk


Unprecedented interestUnprecedented interest Space weather recognised as a natural hazardSpace weather recognised as a natural hazard

– Under review within national risk planning process (input for Under review within national risk planning process (input for 2011 review)2011 review)

– Interconnectivity is recognised as critical issueInterconnectivity is recognised as critical issue– Encouraged to propose to include in NH research Encouraged to propose to include in NH research

programme (for NERC strategy review Spring 2011)programme (for NERC strategy review Spring 2011) Political interestPolitical interest

– Foundation for Science & TechnologyFoundation for Science & Technology– EIS Summit, 20 Sep EIS Summit, 20 Sep – Parliamentary inquiry, 10 NovParliamentary inquiry, 10 Nov

Business interestBusiness interest– InsuranceInsurance– Business continuity groupsBusiness continuity groups


Threat to power grids from SpW and EMPThreat to power grids from SpW and EMP Range of technical presentations includingRange of technical presentations including

– Grid risks (John Kappenman)Grid risks (John Kappenman)– Swedish grid experience (Magnus Olofsson)Swedish grid experience (Magnus Olofsson)– Aviation (Bryn Jones)Aviation (Bryn Jones)– Impact of grid loss (Bronius Cikotas)Impact of grid loss (Bronius Cikotas)

Many US and UK experts presentMany US and UK experts present 16 other countries (mainly embassy staff)16 other countries (mainly embassy staff) Strong political presence, especially US & UKStrong political presence, especially US & UK

– Chaired by two members of US HoR Chaired by two members of US HoR – Hosted by Chair of HoC defence committeeHosted by Chair of HoC defence committee– Speeches by UK security and defence ministersSpeeches by UK security and defence ministers– Attracted much media interestAttracted much media interest

EIS SummitEIS Summit

Report on Report on www.empcoalition.comwww.empcoalition.com


HoC inquiryHoC inquiryWritten evidence from:Written evidence from: GovernmentGovernment Clive DyerClive Dyer British Antarctic SurveyBritish Antarctic Survey Royal Astronomical Soc. Royal Astronomical Soc. Royal Aerospace Soc.Royal Aerospace Soc. Royal Acad. Engineering Royal Acad. Engineering MISTMIST UCLUCL SolarMetricsSolarMetrics Research CouncilsResearch Councils Met Office Met Office

Published 13 OctoberPublished 13 October


Insurance & business continuityInsurance & business continuity

Long-standing interest from Long-standing interest from UK space insuranceUK space insurance

Now expanding to wider Now expanding to wider insurance marketinsurance market

Also business continuity Also business continuity communitycommunity


Planning for risksPlanning for risks

3.44 We also monitor new and emerging risks, such as the potential impact of severe space weather on our infrastructure. Given the range of hazards and accidents that can cause large-scale disruption, and the very severe impacts of the worst of these, this risk grouping is judged to be one of the highest priority risk areas. Our approach is to plan for the consequences of potential civil emergencies no matter what the cause. (18 Oct 2010)

Where to put SpW?


Community responseCommunity response Number of meetings during 2010Number of meetings during 2010

– Within the UK expert communityWithin the UK expert community– And with government and policy bodiesAnd with government and policy bodies

Key outcomesKey outcomes– Re-activate UK space weather mailing listRe-activate UK space weather mailing list– Providing input to National Risk AssessmentProviding input to National Risk Assessment– Need to complement Carrington event: 1921 event, 1894/96 Need to complement Carrington event: 1921 event, 1894/96

rad storms, ice core challenge, ….rad storms, ice core challenge, ….– Providing input to NERC natural hazards strategyProviding input to NERC natural hazards strategy– Setting up UK expert group …Setting up UK expert group …


Space Environment Impacts Expert GroupSpace Environment Impacts Expert Group

Experts: Chair; radio, geomag, particle & thermosphere envExperts: Chair; radio, geomag, particle & thermosphere env Gov: CCS, GO Science, MOD, UKSA + othersGov: CCS, GO Science, MOD, UKSA + others Can feed into SAGE systemCan feed into SAGE system

Government

SEIEG

Planning advice

Emergency advice

How to improve evidence base

UKSAand SSA rep

Business / industry

Knowledge exchange on vulnerabilities

Expert community

* Migitation strategies* Standards* Education and skills

Government

SEIEG

Planning advice

Emergency advice

How to improve evidence base

UKSAand SSA rep

Business / industry

Knowledge exchange on vulnerabilities

Expert community

* Migitation strategies* Standards* Education and skills


Where next?Where next? Big problem is moneyBig problem is money

– Government cutting spend by ~25% over 5 yearsGovernment cutting spend by ~25% over 5 years– So difficult to get new money (SSA, etc)So difficult to get new money (SSA, etc)

National Risk AssessmentNational Risk Assessment– Concerned with big eventsConcerned with big events– SpW in process for 2011SpW in process for 2011– Subsequent annual reviewsSubsequent annual reviews

Longer-term aim is build economic caseLonger-term aim is build economic case– How can we help operators with smaller events?How can we help operators with smaller events?

– Also cumulative problemsAlso cumulative problems

7 th European Space Weather Week, Brugge, 15 Nov 2010 Recent Programmatic Developments in the UK...

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