50,000,000.00 714285...Strategy: Exporters are advised to cover 1 month exposure through Risk...

50,000,000.00

714285.7143

Long term (3 to 6 Months)

“

”

● U.S., Russia agree to oil market talks as Trump calls price war 'crazy'

From CEO's Desk

Medium term (Upto 3 Months) Intraday

Note: The above outlook is based on IFA Global Research Academy Proprietary ("IFA Dollar - Rupee Sentiment Index") based on various

techno-fundamental factors relevant to the particular outlook horizon. The index weights have been arrived at after rigorous back

testing. The factors which are considered for computation of barometers includes pre-defined and back tested weightage given to

fundamental factors such as economic data, FII flows, Global equity markets, Government & RBI activity, Onshore-offshore activity, other

peer currency performance and other macro economic factors. Further, this module also considers factors such as major MPC member's

speech, meeting or summit. On the technical front, factors include indicators and oscillators such as RSI, stochastic, combination of

moving averages and other basic & advance technical studies. (0 - 20%=extremely bearish, 21% - 40%=bearish, 41% - 60%=neutral, 61% -

80%=bullish, 81% - 100% extremely bullish)

News On The Street

69% 76% 75%

Mr. Abhishek Goenka

Crude prices fell to their lowest levels in 18 years yesterday as markets fear the world

may run out of storage space. There is massive inventory build up as demand has

taken a hit while Saudi and Russia disagreement over production cuts has kept supply

intact. The crude market is trading in a what is called a super contango. The spread

between the May contract and the November contract was the highest on record.

There is still stress in the funding market in the US. The LIBOR is still elevated despite

humongous liquidity injection by the US Fed. The stress is not being reflected in the

FX markets as of now but is certainly something to keep an eye on.

The tremendous liquidity injection by central banks is seeming to keep global equities

afloat. The Dow ended the session 3.2% higher yesterday.

Likely range for the USDINR is 75.15-75.65. Asian currencies are trading stronger

against the USD.

The RBI received 2.4 times the bid to cover yesterday's TLTRO auction of Rs 25000cr. It

has also announced the second tranche of Rs 25000cr to be conducted on 3rd April.

The RBI announced FAR (fully accessible route) for non residents to invest in Gsec.

Investment by FPI in securities in this category would be besides their usual limit in

Gsecs. This is one more step towards bond index inclusion. The RBI has also increased

FPI limit in corporate bonds to 15%.

Strategy: Exporters are advised to cover 1 month exposure through Risk Reversal

option Strategy.(Buy 75.50 put @0.60 paise, Sell Call 77.00 @0.44). Importers are go

advised to go for back to back hedging. The 3M range for USDINR is 73.00 - 77.00

and the 6M range is 72.0 – 78.00 considering panic situation amid covid-19 spread.

IFA Dollar- Rupee Sentiment Index

● WHO says coronavirus outbreak in Europe may be approaching peak

● Japan to boost government bond issuance by $149 billion to fund stimulus

Crude oil price drops to 18

year lows

● Asia stocks rise as Chinese factory activity picks up

● RBI opens up key government bonds to full foreign investment

IFA GLOBAL TREASURY RESEARCH ACADEMY| www.ifaglobal.net | www.treasuryelite.com| Blog: www.abhishekgoenka.com

“USDINR

$ INDEX

EURUSD

GBPUSD

USDJPY

AUDUSD

GOLD

”

1.0700-1.1250 ↓

$1450- $1800 ↑ $1450- $1800 ↑$1500- $1700 ↑

98.50- 101.00 ↑

1.2800-1.3800

Q4 FY 2019-20

DAILY CURRENCY INSIGHT

● GBPUSD (RANGE- 1.2280 -1.2400)

IFA Outlook

Q3 FY 2020-21

72.50 - 77.00 ↑72.00-78.00 ↑

1.1000-1.1650 ↑

$1500- $1750 ↑


Investors will

continue to sell

emerging-market

assets and swap the

proceeds into the

global reserve

currency (US dollar)

73.00-77.00 ↑

106.00-111.00 ↓

1.1200-1.1800 ↑

1.1800-1.2500 ↓

0.5800-0.6300 ↓ 0.6450- 0.7100

95.00- 100.00 ↓

102.00-108.00 105.00-110.00

1.0600-1.1200

● USDINR (RANGE- 75.15 - 75.65)

The USDJPY pair staged a modest rebound yesterday, boosted by the

broad-based USD strength. Dollar index has regained 99 mark.

However, risk off sentiment is keeping the pair's upside capped for the

time being. Japanese government's coronavirus expert panel noted

that there were no signs for an "explosive rise" in the number of

confirmed infection in Japan.

The USDINR pair opened lower today by 18 paise to 75.44. Lower

crude oil prices, mild recovery in Yuan and positive domestic equities

likely to cap the gains in the pair. Further, RBI intervention and

updates on Coronavirus cases from the domestic front to play

secondary role. The RBI announced FAR (fully accessible route),

opening gates for NRIs to invest in Gsec.

Q1 FY 2020-21

71.00-76.00 ↑

0.6800- 0.7500

Q2 FY 2020-21

● EURUSD (RANGE- 1.0970 - 1.1070)

106.50-111.00 ↓

March 31, 2020

FX Outlook for the day

97.00- 100.00

1.1600-1.2600 ↓ 1.2800-1.3800

0.6500- 0.7000

95.00- 100.00 ↓

The pound weakened against the dollar but comparatvely less than

other currencies after it was revealed post-Brexit technical trade talks

would take place this week by telephone. Any rebound will likely be

limited while official policy is that if no agreement is reached by June,

it means the UK will be leaving without any deal. The correction in the

pair can be attributed to profit booking as it rallied 7% last week.

The EURUSD pair edged lower towards 1.10 psychological mark, as

the dollar managed to recover some ground. Month end quarter flows

are usually greenback supportive. coronavirus pandemic gives no sign

of easing, taking its toll, particularly in the US and Europe. Intraday

view for the pair remains bearish.

● USDJPY (RANGE- 108.00 - 109.00)

“

”

“

”

“

”

Activity Kurtosis

USDINR Spot 75.50


Chart of the Day

USDINR pair is trading on a flat note after opening

lower today at 75.44. The pair is likely to trade in the

range of 74.30 - 76.30 for the short term. Bullish bias

remains intact for the day.

FIIs have so far

withdrawn $13.60

billion in the

calendar year 2020

● USDINR Open Interest (April Expiry )


● FII activity against USDINR and Nifty

March 31, 2020

Highest OI for Call

and Put stands at

74.00. Highest OI

buildup is seen at

75.50 Call and

unwinding at 76.00

Call

LIBOR ON 1M 6M 1Y MONTH 1M 3M 1Y 2Y

USD 0.12 0.98 1.09 1.01 USDINR 0.24 0.79 3.04 5.99

EUR -0.56 -0.39 -0.20 -0.19 EURINR 0.37 1.16 4.38 8.65

JPY 0.03 -0.12 -0.02 0.09 GBPINR 0.37 1.11 3.99 7.91

JPYINR 0.36 1.04 3.73 7.43

REGION LAST % CHANGE LAST CHANGE % CHANGE

ASIA 23350.00 0.71 1638.00 -4.65 -0.28

2760.00 0.47 14.24 0.11 0.76

19044.00 -0.19 21.15 1.03 5.20

INDIA 28890.00 1.58 99.30 0.11 0.11

8432.00 1.70 101.28 0.03 0.03

EUROPE 4400.00 1.30

9862.00 0.16 FY 2019-20 CY 2020 30-Mar-20

5566.00 0.20 9,777 -44,405 1,029

US 22188.00 0.10 -39,576 -60,794 -1,598

7874.00 0.25 7,700 2,352 -1

-22,099 -102,847 -570

“ Pivot S2 S1 P R1 R2

USDINR 75.08 75.31 75.55 75.79 76.05

EURINR 82.55 82.98 83.25 83.58 83.91

GBPINR 92.51 92.80 93.25 93.63 93.98

JPYINR 69.10 69.55 69.86 70.12 70.43

”

Currency Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

30-Mar EUR 5:30 PM 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% NEUTRAL

USD 7:30 PM 2.4% -1.0% 5.3% BULLISH

31-Mar CNY 6:30 AM 52.0 45.0 35.7 BULLISH

GBP 11:30 AM 0.0% 0.4%

EUR 1:25 PM 29K -10K

EUR 2:30 PM 0.8% 1.2%

USD 7:30 PM 110.0 130.7

Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

Pivot Points

NASDAQ

SENSEX

NIKKEI

German Unemployment Change (Mar)

GLOBAL INDICES

DAX

FTSE

DOW

SILVER ($/ounce)

HYBRID

March 31, 2020

Quick Glance

CAC

FPI INFLOWS

Bloomberg ADXY

GOLD ($/ounce)HANG SENG

NIFTY

WTI CRUDE ($/brl)

SHANGHAI

COMMODITIES/DI


Major Global Rates

Dollar INDEX

LIBOR Rates


Figures are in INR Crores

Major Global Events

Macro Monitor

TOTAL

EQUITY

GDP (QoQ) (Q4)

CPI (YoY) (Mar)

German CPI (MoM) (Mar)

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)

GBPINR is expected to face hurdle at R1

(93.63)

DEBT

CB Consumer Confidence (Mar)

Rolling Forward Premiums

IMPORTANT NOTICE AND DISCLAIMER

While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and IFA Global can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document

does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not

intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be

substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as

trading advice or strategy. IFA Global makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations

for individual securities or other instruments.

Headquarters:-

India Forex Advisors Pvt. Ltd. H-125, 1st Floor, Kanakia Zillion, LBS Marg,

CST Road Junction, Bandra Kurla Complex Annexe, Kurla West, Mumbai-400070

Research & Analytics Desk: +91 8879390076 | Treasury Audit & Bank Negotiation Desk: +91 8879630572 |

FX & Treasury Advisory Desk: +91 8879600618 | FX Trading & Options Desk: +91 8291983820

Email: [email protected] You can also visit our website: www.ifaglobal.net

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