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Transcript of 3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com -...
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
1
IRAN STEEL MARKET OVERVIEWIRAN STEEL MARKET OVERVIEWMr. Hadi Hami, Marketing Manager
www.mesteel.com
33rdrd Middle East Metal Conference Middle East Metal Conference
The Steel Wonder of The World
12-14 May, 2007
Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
2
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
3
Iran Steel Market
• Production overview & outlook• Exports: Which mill exports what?• Imports: How volatile is the market? • Import sources diversify, China or CIS?• Middle East and Iran demand side issues• Iran steel prices & market opportunities • Conclusion
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
4
Iran Steel Production Overview - Outlook
– Semis production (per mill in 2004 – 2006)– Finished products production
(per mill in 2004 – 2006)
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
5
Iran Steel Production (mt) (2004 - 2006)
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
Semis
Finished Products
Semis 8,989,640 9,574,291 9,928,081
Finished Products 9,432,800 10,594,844 11,054,015
2004 2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
6
Iran Semis Production (mt) per mill (2004 - 2006)
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
2004
2005
2006
Khorasan Steel Co 317,012 410,674 460,274
Iran Alloy Steel 150,389 188,337 187,726
INSIG 105,273 115,681 125,150
Khouzestan Steel Co 2,150,849 2,205,792 2,280,128
Mobarakeh Steel Co 3,859,516 4,146,372 4,658,264
Esfahan Steel Co 2,406,601 2,507,435 2,216,539
2004 2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
7
Iran Finished Products Production (mt) per mill ( 2004 - 2006)
0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
2004
2005
2006
Others 300,000 730,000 900,000
Ahwaz Rolling & Pipes 293,658 320,218 224,437
Kerman Steel Co 110,036 103,225 102,818
Khorasan Steel Co 555,502 603,290 644,234
Azarbaijan Steel Co 573,084 525,103 553,664
Iran Alloy Steel 162,071 180,996 182,136
Kavian Steel Co 465,329 480,451 439,097
INSIG 692,652 852,665 1,056,076
Mobarakeh Steel Co 3,853,548 4,222,644 4,609,021
Esfahan Steel Co 2,426,920 2,576,252 2,342,532
2004 2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
8
Iran steel exports per product type (2005 – 2006)
• Export Figures per mill (2005 - 2006)• “Value” of steel exports per mill (2005 - 2006)
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
9
Iran steel exports (mt) per mill (2005 - 2006)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Esfahan Steel Co (ESCO) 284,232 213,856
Saba Complex 48,889 70,149
Mobarakeh Steel Co (MSC) 1,052,881 1,087,701
Khouzestan Steel Co (KSC) 927,237 531,274
Iran National Steel (INSIG) 143,995 49,530
Kavian steel 1,000 1,782
Iran Alloy Steel 17,103 18,891
Azarbaijan Steel 17,307 15,570
Khorasan Steel Co 13,067 3,732
Ahwaz Rolling & Pipes 32,713 37,487
2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
10
Total Iran Steel Exports ( 2005 - 2006)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Exp
orte
d Q
uant
ity (m
t)
Total Iran Exports 2,538,424 2,029,972
2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
11
M obarakeh Stee l Exports ( 2005 - 2006)
500
100,500
200,500
300,500
400,500
500,500
600,500
700,500
800,500
900,500
Ex
po
rte
d Q
ua
nti
ty (
mt)
Hot Rolled Sheets 77,614 141,661
Hot Rolled Coils 928,861 894,089
Pickled Coils 3,537 31,101
Cold Rolled Coils 828 1,581
Coated Coils /Sheets 1,345 9,625
Slabs 40,696 9,644
2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
12
Khuzestan Steel Exports ( 2005 - 2006)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Exp
ort
ed Q
uan
tity
(m
t)
Blooms 609,696 442,148
Billets 155,902 28,597
Slabs 161,639 60,529
2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
13
ESCO Exports ( 2005-2006)
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Exp
ort
ed Q
uan
tity
(m
t)
I-Beams 119,777 136,887
Rebars 98,462 76,969
Sections 65,993 0
2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
14
Saba Complex Exports ( 2005 - 2006)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Exp
ort
ed Q
uan
tity
(m
t)
Hot Rolled Coils 48,889 70,149
2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
15
INSIG Exports ( 2005 - 2006)
0
8,000
16,000
24,000
32,000
40,000
48,000
56,000
64,000
72,000
80,000
Exp
ort
ed Q
uan
tity
(m
t)
I-Beams 63,957 4,700
Rebars 76,497 42,581
Seamless Pipes 3,541 2,249
2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
16
Imports: How volatile is the market?
• Steel imports per product type (mt) (2004-2006)
• Total “Value” of steel imports per product type (2004-2006)
• “Average Price” of steel imports per product type (2004-2006)
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
17
Iran steel imports per product type (2004-2006)
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000
Pig Iron
Ferro Alloys
Iron Powder
Iron Scrap
Alloy Scrap
Billets
Hot Rolled Coils
Cold Rolled Coils
Coated Coils/Sheets
Rebars
Sections & Beams
Wires
SS Billets
SS Coils/Sheets
SS Bars
SS Sections
SS Wires
Alloy Steel Billets
Alloy Steel Sheets
Alloy Steel Rebars
Alloy Steel Profiles
Alloy Steel Wires
(mt)
2004 2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
18
Iran steel imports percentage per product type (2006)
Pig Iron
Ferro Alloys
Iron Powder
Iron Scrap
Alloy Scrap
Billets
Hot Rolled Coils
Cold Rolled Coils
Coated Coils/Sheets
Rebars
Sections & Beams
Wires
SS Billets
SS Coils/Sheets
SS Bars
SS Sections
SS Wires
Alloy Steel Billets
Alloy Steel Sheets
Alloy Steel Rebars
Alloy Steel Profiles
Alloy Steel Wires
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
19
Iran total value of imported steel per product type (2004-2006)
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000
Pig Iron
Ferro Alloys
Iron Powder
Iron Scrap
Alloy Scrap
Billets
Hot Rolled Coils
Cold Rolled Coils
Coated Coils/Sheets
Rebars
Sections & Beams
Wires
SS Billets
SS Coils/Sheets
SS Bars
SS Sections
SS Wires
Alloy Steel Billets
Alloy Steel Sheets
Alloy Steel Rebars
Alloy Steel Profiles
Alloy Steel Wires
(x1000)USD
(2004) (2005) (2006)
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
20
Iran "Average Price " of imported steel products per product type (2004-2006)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
Pig Iron
Ferro Alloys
Iron Powder
Iron Scrap
Alloy Scrap
Billets
Hot Rolled Coils
Cold Rolled Coils
Coated Coils/Sheets
Rebars
Sections & Beams
Wires
SS Billets
SS Coils/Sheets
SS Bars
SS Sections
SS Wires
Alloy Steel Billets
Alloy Steel Sheets
Alloy Steel Rebars
Alloy Steel Profiles
Alloy Steel Wires
($/mt)
2004 2005 2006
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
21
Import sources diversify, China or CIS?
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
22
Middle East long products imports, Ex-China per country (2006)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Vol (
'000
) mt
United Arab Emirates
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Syria
Yemen
Kuwait
Bahrain
Israel
Qatar
Jordan
Lebanon
Iraq
Oman
Palestine
United Arab Emirates 443
Iran 360
Saudi Arabia 230
Syria 202
Yemen 125
Kuwait 59
Vol ('000) Mtons
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
23
Middle East flat products imports, Ex-China per country (2006)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Vol (
'000
) mt
United Arab Emirates
Saudi Arabia
Iran
Israel
Kuwait
Syria
Jordan
Yemen
Qatar
Lebanon
Bahrain
Iraq
Oman
United Arab Emirates 290
Saudi Arabia 111
Iran 88
Israel 82
Kuwait 22
Syria 19
Vol ('000) Mtons
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
24
Middle East long products imports, Ex-China per country (Jan-Feb 2007)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Vol
('00
0) m
t
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Rep Yemen
United Arab Emirates
Syrian
Kuwait
Jordan
Israel
Qatar
Oman
Iraq
Lebanon
Palestine
Bahrain
Iran 575
Saudi Arabia 73
Rep Yemen 69
United Arab Emirates 65
Syrian 37
Kuwait 16
Vol ('000) Mtons
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
25
Middle East flat products imports, Ex- China per country (Jan - Feb 2007)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Vol
('00
0) m
t
United Arab Emirates
Saudi Arabia
Israel
Iran
Kuwait
Jordan
Oman
Lebanon
Syrian
Qatar
Bahrain
Iraq
Rep Yemen
United Arab Emirates 46
Saudi Arabia 23
Israel 22
Iran 7
Kuwait 6
Jordan 5
Vol ('000) Mtons
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
26
Iran Carbon Steel Prices
• 2006
• Q1-2007
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
27
Iran Steel Semi Finished Products Prices ( 2006 )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
($/m
tt)
Billets Slabs
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
28
Iran Steel Semi Finished Product Prices ( Q1 - 2007)
460
470
480
490
500
510
520
530
540
550
Jan Feb Mar
($/m
tt)
Billets Slabs
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
29
Iran Steel Rebar Prices ( 2006 )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
($/m
tt)
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
30
Iran Steel Rebar Prices (Q1- 2007)
660
665
670
675
680
685
690
Jan Feb Mar
($/m
tt)
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
31
Iran Steel Beam Prices ( 2006 )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
($/m
tt)
Beams ( 140mm - 180 mm ) Beams ( 200mm - 300 mm )
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
32
Iran Steel Beam Prices ( Q1 - 2007)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Jan Feb Mar
($/m
tt)
Beams ( 140mm - 180 mm ) Beams ( 200mm - 300 mm )
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
33
Iran Steel Hot Rolled Coil Prices (2006)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
($/m
t)
(2mm - 2.5mm) (2.5mm - 4mm) (4mm - 8mm) (8mm -12.5mm)
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
34
Iran Steel Hot Rolled Coil Prices (Q1 - 2007 )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan Feb Mar
($/m
t)
(2mm - 2.5mm) (2.5mm - 4mm) (4mm - 8mm) (8mm - 12.5mm)
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
35
Iran Steel Cold Rolled Coil Prices ( 2006 )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
($/m
t)
Cold Rolled Coils (1mm - 1.5mm)
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
36
Iran Steel Cold Rolled Coil Prices (Q1 - 2007)
600
610
620
630
640
650
660
670
Jan Feb Mar
($/m
t)
Cold Rolled Coils (1mm - 1.5mm)
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
37
Iran Coated Steel Coil Prices ( 2006 )
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
($/m
t)
Gi Coils (CR Base) Tinplate (0.3 mm )
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
38
Iran Coated Steel Coil Prices (Q1- 2007)
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
900
920
940
960
980
Jan Feb Mar
($/m
t)
Gi Coils (CR Base) Tinplate (0.3 mm )
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
39
3rd Middle East Metal Conference, 12-14 May 2007, Fairmont Hotel, Dubai, UAE © 2007 MEsteel.com - All Rights Reserved. Mr
Hadi Hami
40
Thanks for your attention • If you have any question regarding the presentation, the Iranian
steel market or ME steel's research capabilities,do not hesitate to contact us:
Mr Hadi Hami, Marketing ManagerEmail : [email protected] Tel : + 971 4 8873003
www.mesteel.com
Linking Steel Sellers and Buyers in the Middle east .