30 July 18 April th 2019 -2020€¦ · 0.09% and the South Korean KOSPI added 13.47 points or 0.7%...

July 18th 201930th April-2020

TIME CURRENCY EVENT EXPECTED PREVIOUS CONSENSUS IMPACT

11:30 AM EUR

GERMAN RETAIL

SALES (MOM)

(MAR)

-7.3% 1.2% -NEGATIVE

FOR EUR

01:25 PM EUR

GERMAN

UNEMPLOYMENT

CHANGE (APR)

76K 1K -NEGATIVE

FOR EUR

02:30 PM EUR CPI (YOY) (APR) 0.1% 0.7% -NEGATIVE

FOR EUR

05:15 PM EUR

ECB INTEREST

RATE DECISION

(APR)

0.00% 0.00% -NEGATIVE

FOR EUR

06:00 PM USDINITIAL JOBLESS

CLAIMS3,500K 4,427K -

NEGATIVE

FOR USD

06:00 PM CAD GDP (MOM) (FEB) 0.1% 0.1% -NEGATIVE

FOR CAD

- - - - - - -

- - - - - - -

TOP ECONOMIC EVENTS OF THE DAY

SNAPSHOT

SCRIP PRICE % CHANGE TREND

AUDUSD 0.6542 -0.19 STRONG

NZDUSD 0.6124 -0.11 STRONG

EURUSD 1.0863 -0.10 NEUTRAL

GBPUSD 1.2454 -0.08 NEUTRAL

USDJPY 106.69 0.0 WEAK

USDCAD 1.3880 -0.02 WEAK

USDCHF 0.9751 0.17 NEUTRAL

DXY 99.66 0.02 WEAK

GOLD 1,710.86 -0.12 STRONG

SILVER 15.207 0.37 STRONG

CRUDEOIL 16.80 11.55 WEAK

MARKET BYTES:

• ASIAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED IN POSITIVE TERRITORYAsian benchmark indices closed in green on Wednesday as Beijinggovernment is planning to ease quarantine for some domestic travelersas soon as from Thursday. At close, the Shanghai Composite index added12.42 points or 0.44% to 2822.44, the Hang Seng added 23.08 points or0.09% and the South Korean KOSPI added 13.47 points or 0.7% to1947.56.

• AUSTRALIA’S ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: EXPORT PRICES RISE 2.7% INQ1

Australia's export prices increased by 2.7% quarter-on-quarter in thethree months to March 2020, following a 5.2% drop in the previousperiod and the import index went down by -1% quarter-on-quarter,when compared with market expectations of +1.0%, prior +0.7%.

ASIAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MSCI

OUR VIEW

MSCI is trading near its previous high that is placed at 335.42 levels on hourly scale. The index is holding its 20-hours Exponential Moving Average. RSI is trading at 64.52 levels showing no signs of divergence and overbought. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for more upside.

AUDUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:

AUD/USD is forming AB=CD harmonic pattern on 4-hour scale that signals for anexhaustion in the uptrend after an extension. The 20-hours Exponential Moving Averagewill act as a major support for the counter. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for moreupside.

INDICATORS 30 MIN 1 HOUR 4 HOUR DAILY

RSI BUY BUY BUY BUY

STOCHASTIC BUY BUY BUY BUY

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY BUY BUY

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY BUY SELL

SENTIMETER BUY BUY BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:

AUDUSDAUD/USD pair is in strong bull’s case after the Private sector credit in Australia rose by1.1% in March 2020, followed from a 0.4% gain in the previous month reflectingeconomy has picked up in business credit.

STRATEGY

ACTION ENTRY TARGET 1 TARGET 2 STOP LOSS

BUY 0.6562 0.6600 0.6646 0.6535

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

AUDUSD 0.6200 0.5827 0.6777 0.7030

0.

NZDUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:NZD/USD has breached the primary trend line placed on 4-hour scale. The counter istrading above 100-hours Exponential Moving Average. RSI is trading at 66.01 levelsshowing no signs of divergence and overbought.


RSI NEUTRAL BUY BUY NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL BUY BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY BUY


SENTIMETER BUY BUY BUY NEUTRAL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :NZDUSDNZD/USD pair is following Aussie despite the Manufacturing PMI in China fell to 50.8 inApril of 2020 from 52.0 in the previous month and compared with market expectationsof 51 even after businesses resumed in China.

STRATEGY


BUY 0.6109 0.6140 0.6178 0.6089


NZDUSD 0.5900 0.5475 0.6358 0.6600

EUROPEAN ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• EUROPEAN EQUITY MARKET CLOSED HIGHEREuropean equities market closed sharply in green on Wednesday afterGilead Sciences announced Covid-19 treatment remdesivir succeeded ina trial testing. Meanwhile, Italy’s PM Giuseppe Conte announced agradual easing of Italy’s lockdown starting from next Monday. At close,the DAX 30 closed up 2.9% at 11,108, the FTSE MIB surged 348 points,or 2.2% to 18,062, the CAC 40 rose 101 points, or 2.2% to 4,671, theFTSE 100 rose 157 points or 2.6% to finished at 6,115 and the IBEX 35advanced 214 points, or 3.1% to 7,050.

• COVID-19 CASES: FRANCE DEATH RATE CLIMBED MORE THAN24,000According to the health ministry of France, the number of people whohave died from the Coronavirus infection in France rose by 427 to24,087 on Wednesday. The death toll has increased 1.8% over 24 hoursagainst 1.6% on Tuesday. However, the number of people in hospital aredown to 26,834 from 27,484 on Tuesday and number of people in ICUunits down to 4,207 from 4,387 on Tuesday.

EURUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:EUR/USD is trading near its potential ‘Supply’ zone that is placed in a narrow range of1.0887-1.0897 levels on hourly scale. The 50-hours Exponential Moving Average will actas a major support for the counter. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for a lackluster move.


RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL SELL

10 SMA BUY BUY BUY SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY SELL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY BUY SELL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT :EURUSDEUR/USD pair is consolidating after US GDP reported a plunge for the first quarter to aworse than expected -4.8%. Meanwhile, headlines from Gilead Sciences has furtherpushed Euro higher against the greenback that that the company is seeing positive datafrom Remdesivir, which seems the possible treatment drug for Covid-19.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.0900 1.0948 1.0988 1.0865


EURUSD 1.0522 1.0343 1.1150 1.1355

GBPUSD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD has formed a classic ‘Marubozu’ candle stick pattern that often signalscontinuation of downtrend. RSI is closed at 65.82 levels showing no signs of divergenceand oversold situation. DMI’s have been converged for continuation of upside.


RSI BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

STOCHASTIC BUY NEUTRAL BUY NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND BUY BUY NEUTRAL BUY

10 SMA BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) BUY BUY NEUTRAL SELL

SENTIMETER BUY NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDGBPUSD pair is in positive territory as Brexit hopes continue to underpin the demandfor pound against the greenback. However, there is no economic event in bothcountries today.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.2512 1.2545 1.2578 1.2486


GBPUSD 1.2300 1.2270 1.2380 1.2400

GBPUSD TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK :GBP/USD is trading in a ‘Rising Channel’ on hourly scale that signals for a consolidatedmove with a positive bias. The pair is flirting with 50-hours Exponential Moving Average.RSI is trading at 53.12 levels but expected to expand after breaching 60 levels.




BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA NEUTRAL NEUTRAL BUY BUY


SENTIMETER BUY BUY BUY SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:GBPUSDThe British pound is flat against the greenback after the US economy contracted by 4.8%year-over-year in the first quarter, which was worse than the expectation of -3.5.Further, optimism surrounded over Coronavirus treatment from Gilead Sciences haseased market’s sentiments.

STRATEGY


BUY 1.2383 1.2440 1.2500 1.2346


GBPUSD 1.2170 1.1930 1.2650 1.3026

MARKET BYTES:

• US EQUITY FINISHED MIXED ON FRIDAYU.S equity ended mixed on Friday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq closedmarginally lower at 0.1% and 0.2% or 2 and 18 points respectively whileDow Jones was marginally higher at 0.1% or 37 points as US retail salesbeat market expectations in August led by increase in consumption ofauto sector and online shopping platform stimulate the economicgrowth.

• TRUMP URGE TO GM AS UAW (UNITED AUTO WORKERS) CALLSFOR STRIKE SINCE 2007

On Sunday, President Trump said to avoid the strike around 48,000workers, the UAW and General Motors to come together to negotiateand “make a deal”. The strike is to improve wages, reopen idled plants,add jobs at others and close or narrow the difference between pay ratesfor new hires and veteran workers of UAW while General Motors wantsits employees to pay a standard remuneration of their health careexpenses, and to increase productive work-force in their work place.

US ECONOMY UPDATE

MARKET BYTES:

• U.S EQUITY MARKET CLOSED IN GREENU.S equity market finished with extended gains on Wednesday after theUS Fed kept its benchmark interest rate near zero at 0.25% and pledged tomaintain it until full employment returns and the economy recovers. Atclose, the final numbers were: the Dow Jones climbed 532 points or 2.2%to 24,634, the S&P 500 jumped 76 points or 2.7% to 2,940 and theNASDAQ soared 307 points or 3.6% to 8,915.

• FED LEAVES INTEREST RATE UNCHANGEDOn Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve kept its benchmark interest rateunchanged at the record-low level of near zero at 0-0.25 percent andpledged to keep it there until the economy recovers. Earlier onWednesday, the Department of Commerce released the U.S. economycontracted by 4.8% on an annual basis in the first three months of 2020,which was the worst performance since the fourth quarter of 2008.

DOLLAR INDEX

OUR VIEW:The DXY is marching towards its potential support that is placed at 98.41 levels on 4-hour scale. The greenback is slipped below 100 (4-hours) Exponential Moving Average. RSI is trading at 42.28 levels but expected to witness weakness after slipping below 40 levels.

OUTLOOK: WEAK

USDJPY TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/JPY is trading in a ‘Falling Channel’ on hourly scale that signals for a consolidatedmove with a negative bias. The 50-hours Exponential Moving Average will act as a majorresistance for the counter. RSI is trading at 50.96 levels but expected to sense resistancefrom 60 levels.


RSI NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

STOCHASTIC NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL SELL SELL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL SELL SELL

SENTIMETER SELL SELL SELL SELL

FUNDAMENTAL ASPECT:USDJPYUSD/JPY pair is in negative territory despite Industrial production in Japan dropped asharp 3.7% in March, compared to a 0.3% drop in the previous month and to marketexpectations of a 5.2% decline. Japan's retail trade tumbled 4.6% from a year earlier inMarch 2020.

STRATEGY


SELL 106.71 106.30 106.00 107.00


USDJPY 104.60 101.20 108.09 111.70

USDCAD TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CAD is trading near the kissing distance of its potential support that is placed at1.3856 levels on 4-hour scale. RSI is trading at 28.33 levels showing no signs of divergenceand oversold. Stochastic oscillator is hinting for more weakness.


RSI SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

STOCHASTIC SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

BOLLINGER BAND SELL SELL SELL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL SELL

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL SELL BUY

SENTIMETER SELL SELL SELL BUY

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCADUSD/CAD remained under bearish pressure after the US contracted by 4.8% on a yearlybasis in the first quarter amid coronavirus lockdowns. Also, the US Pending Home Salesreport was more disappointing as it showed a contraction of 20.8% compared to marketexpectations 10% contraction.

STRATEGY


SELL 1.3880 1.3840 1.3796 1.3910


USDCAD 1.3475 1.3190 1.4348 1.4670

USDCHF TREND: NEUTRAL

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:USD/CHF is trading lackluster despite the breakout of ‘Symmetrical Triangle’ that signalsan expansion in standard deviation. The pair is holding its 50 (4-hours) ExponentialMoving Average. RSI is trading back and forth in a range of 40-60 levels.




BOLLINGER BAND NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL NEUTRAL

10 SMA SELL SELL SELL BUY

MA CROSSOVER(20,50) SELL SELL BUY BUY

SENTIMETER SELL SELL BUY BUY

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK:USDCHFUSD/CHF pair is in consolidation phase after the Swiss investor sentiment surged to 12.7from -45.8 in the previous month but the assessment of the current economic situationdropped to -53.2 from -25.0 in March, and compared to 15.4 a year earlier. Meanwhile,the Swiss government announced to re-open the economy on May 11th and askedparliament for a CHF 1.9 billion package to provide aid to the aviation sector.

STRATEGY


SELL 0.9710 0.9685 0.9660 0.9730


USDCHF 0.9600 0.9400 1.0028 1.0138

GOLD TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAU/USD has formed a small ‘Spinning Top’ candlestick pattern on daily scale thatsignals for indecisiveness in the sentiments of market participants. A breach above1,717.76 levels will trigger the formation of ‘Spinning Top’ and active more buyers forbuilding long positions.

STRATEGY


BUY 1716.80 1730.00 1747.47 1702.17


GOLD 1656.20 1572.53 1800.00 1870.70

SILVER TREND: STRONG

TECHNICAL VIEW:XAG/USD has breached the primary trend line placed on hourly scale. The counter istrading above 20-hours Exponential Moving Average. RSI is trading at 53.12 levels butexpected to expand after breaching 60 levels.

STRATEGY


BUY 15.230 15.466 15.607 14.990

SCRIP SUPPORT 1 SUPPORT2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

SILVER 13.816 13.060 15.850 16.532

CRUDEOIL TREND: WEAK

TECHNICAL VIEW:Only a ‘short covering’ rally has been witnessed in the oil prices after easing almost 60% in a few trading sessions. If someone needs to be tagged for the accountability of vulnerable oil prices, it should be OPEC and allies as they were aware with the condition from which heritable continents are going through but they didn’t put any major restriction over the exploration of oil, which should have been done at early stages.STRATEGY


- - - - -

SCRIP SUPPORT1 SUPPORT 2 RESISTANCE 1 RESISTANCE 2

CRUDE OIL - - - -

30 July 18 April th 2019 -2020€¦ · 0.09% and the South Korean KOSPI added 13.47 points or 0.7%...

Documents

Transcript of 30 July 18 April th 2019 -2020€¦ · 0.09% and the South Korean KOSPI added 13.47 points or 0.7%...