3-The SHARE main objective

04/12/23

3. The 3. The mainmain objective of SHAREobjective of SHARE

The main objective of SHAREThe main objective of SHARE

• The project intends to develop, test and promote a The project intends to develop, test and promote a decision support system decision support system to to merge,merge, on an unprejudiced basis, on an unprejudiced basis, river ecosystems river ecosystems and and hydropower requirementshydropower requirements..

• This approach will be led using This approach will be led using existing scientific toolsexisting scientific tools, adjustable to transnational, , adjustable to transnational, national and local national and local regulationsregulations and carried out by a and carried out by a permanent panel of permanent panel of administrators and stakeholdersadministrators and stakeholders. .

Utente

normative doesn't make sense! 'requirements' better?

► The methodological “core” of the project will be the application of theThe methodological “core” of the project will be the application of the MULTICRITERIA ANALYSISMULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS ((MCAMCA).).

► TheThe MCA MCA will be used as a “ will be used as a “balancebalance” for evaluating conflicting river ” for evaluating conflicting river management alternativesmanagement alternatives..

The main objective of SHAREThe main objective of SHARE

Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) & Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) & SHARESHARE

• The MCA allows analysis of the problem through an evaluative process based The MCA allows analysis of the problem through an evaluative process based on on 3 fundamental questions3 fundamental questions::

► WHATWHAT to evaluate? – different to evaluate? – different ALTERNATIVESALTERNATIVES of management of management

► HOWHOW to evaluate? – using to evaluate? – using CRITERIACRITERIA, , INDICATORSINDICATORS and and CAUSAL FACTORSCAUSAL FACTORS

► WHOWHO is involved? – different is involved? – different STAKEHOLDERSSTAKEHOLDERS

Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) & Multi Criteria Analysis (MCA) & SHARESHARE

• It’s possible to break the problem into more manageable pieces, the It’s possible to break the problem into more manageable pieces, the CRITERIACRITERIA and the and the INDICATORSINDICATORS, that fully describe it. , that fully describe it.

• It’s possible to analyze how they respond to the different It’s possible to analyze how they respond to the different ALTERNATIVESALTERNATIVES (what are the (what are the possibilities, what could be made, etc.).possibilities, what could be made, etc.).

• ““THE MCA IS A TOOL THAT HELPS THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS BUT IT DOESN’T TAKE THE MCA IS A TOOL THAT HELPS THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS BUT IT DOESN’T TAKE THE RIGHT DECISIONS BY ITSELF”THE RIGHT DECISIONS BY ITSELF”

MCA: how does it work?MCA: how does it work?

1.1. Identification of the MCA Identification of the MCA objectiveobjective and the and the stakeholdersstakeholders involved involved

2.2. Identification of different Identification of different alternativesalternatives to be considered to be considered

3.3. Identification of Identification of criteriacriteria and and indicatorsindicators (coming also from regulations) (coming also from regulations)

4.4. Indicator implementation and Indicator implementation and assessment of Utility Functions assessment of Utility Functions (hard & soft (hard & soft information)information)

5.5. Criteria Criteria weightingweighting (with different stakeholder contributions) (with different stakeholder contributions)

6.6. Performance evaluationPerformance evaluation of each alternative of each alternative

7.7. Sensitivity analysisSensitivity analysis (influence of uncertainty on alternative performance) (influence of uncertainty on alternative performance)

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??

Graz - Austria, 9th April 2010

i.e. NEW HP i.e. NEW HP PLANTPLANT

Identify the Identify the SPECIFIC CASESPECIFIC CASE

PROBLEMPROBLEM

1. Identification of objectives 1. Identification of objectives and stakeholders involvedand stakeholders involved

• What is the What is the problem to be solved problem to be solved with MCA? with MCA?

• Who are the potential Who are the potential STAKEHOLDERS OF SHARESTAKEHOLDERS OF SHARE??

► Public administratorsPublic administrators► HP producers HP producers ► Farmers, fishermen & stockmenFarmers, fishermen & stockmen► Tourism operatorsTourism operators► Local communities and associations Local communities and associations ► … …

1. Identification of objectives 1. Identification of objectives and stakeholders involvedand stakeholders involved



NO WATERNO WATERABSTRACTIONABSTRACTION

WATERWATERABSTRACTIONABSTRACTION

as required as required fromfrom

HP projectHP project

WATER WATER ABSTRACTION ABSTRACTION limited to 80% limited to 80%

of amount of amount required from required from



Identify different Identify different possible possible

management management ALTERNATIVES ALTERNATIVES

ALTERNATIVESALTERNATIVESPROBLEMPROBLEM

2. Identification of different 2. Identification of different alternativesalternatives

• The The ALTERNATIVESALTERNATIVES are the management are the management possibilities, including experimental choices possibilities, including experimental choices to select and adopt.to select and adopt.

• There are not “There are not “A PRIORIA PRIORI” ” ALTERNATIVESALTERNATIVES, , but it’s fundamental to “but it’s fundamental to “IDENTIFYIDENTIFY” them.” them.

• Potential Potential SHARE ALTERNATIVES:SHARE ALTERNATIVES:

► No new water withdrawalNo new water withdrawal ► New water withdrawalNew water withdrawal (or empowerment of existing plant) (or empowerment of existing plant)► New water withdrawalNew water withdrawal (or empowerment of existing plant) (or empowerment of existing plant) BUTBUT::

with with another locationanother location of the of the plantplantwith with different %different % of requested water quantity “ of requested water quantity “QreqQreq””with with fixed MIFfixed MIF / with / with modulated MIFmodulated MIF with with underground pipesunderground pipes, …, …with with sediment release control plansediment release control plan and monitoring and monitoringincluding including river restoration & mitigation activitiesriver restoration & mitigation activities (even (even

located in located in other contexts), other contexts), perequative measuresperequative measures targeted on targeted on mountain mountain communities, communities,

► … …


Utente

No such word! 'prerequisite'?




AVERAGE RESIDUAL AVERAGE RESIDUAL INSTREAM FLOWINSTREAM FLOW

RIVER LENGTHRIVER LENGTH




AVERAGE RESIDUALAVERAGE RESIDUALINSTREAM FLOWINSTREAM FLOW








AlternativesAlternativesareare detailed by one detailed by one

or moreor more CAUSAL CAUSAL FACTORSFACTORS



EFFECTS ASSESSMENTEFFECTS ASSESSMENT ALTERNATIVESALTERNATIVESPROBLEMPROBLEM


• Every Every ALTERNATIVEALTERNATIVE is detailed is detailed by one or more by one or more CAUSAL CAUSAL FACTORSFACTORS, that are , that are INDICATORS INDICATORS describing the alternatives’ describing the alternatives’ effect on effect on STATUS INDICATORSSTATUS INDICATORS: : in other words, each Causal in other words, each Causal Factor is directly linked to Factor is directly linked to status indicatorsstatus indicators modifying modifying their values.their values.

• Possible Possible CAUSAL FACTORSCAUSAL FACTORS for each for each SHARESHARE ALTERNATIVEALTERNATIVE::

► Downstream average water height (“river stage”)Downstream average water height (“river stage”)► Visual impactVisual impact► Mesohabitat availabilityMesohabitat availability► Bankfull widthBankfull width► Underground watertable levelUnderground watertable level► Requested QRequested Qmaxmax

► Requested QRequested Qmedmed

► Local financial outcomesLocal financial outcomes► ……


Utente

Technical term? Sounds odd



HP PRODUCTIONHP PRODUCTION

OTHER OTHER CRITERIONCRITERION

RIVER RIVER CONSERVATIONCONSERVATION















Fully describe the Fully describe the specific case specific case

through through CRITERIACRITERIA





EFFECTS ASSESSMENTEFFECTS ASSESSMENT ALTERNATIVESALTERNATIVESSYSTEM DESCRIPTIONSYSTEM DESCRIPTIONPROBLEMPROBLEM

3. Identification of criteria and 3. Identification of criteria and indicatorsindicators

• The The CRITERIACRITERIA represent the represent the ““MAJOR FIELDS OF MAJOR FIELDS OF INTERESTINTEREST” to be ” to be considered.considered.

3. Identification of criteria and 3. Identification of criteria and indicatorsindicators• Which could be the Which could be the SHARE CRITERIASHARE CRITERIA??

► River conservationRiver conservation► Energy productionEnergy production► Sustainable water useSustainable water use► Financial outcomesFinancial outcomes► Hydrogeological riskHydrogeological risk► LandscapeLandscape► Tourist FruitionTourist Fruition► Farming and breedingFarming and breeding► … …






ANNUAL ANNUAL POWER POWER

PRODUCEDPRODUCED

LIMLIM

FISH FAUNAFISH FAUNA

INDICATOR INDICATOR xx

INDICATOR INDICATOR yy

IBEIBE

MACROPHYTESMACROPHYTES














POWER POWER INSTALLEDINSTALLED




Fully describe each Fully describe each CRITERIONCRITERION through through

INDICATORSINDICATORS






3. Identification of criteria and 3. Identification of criteria and indicatorsindicators

• Every criterion is defined by Every criterion is defined by its own its own indicatorsindicators..

• A A CORRECT COMPROMISECORRECT COMPROMISE must be reached must be reached BETWEEN BETWEEN thethe NUMBER NUMBER andand UTILITY UTILITY of of indicators.indicators.

• Criteria and indicators form a Criteria and indicators form a hierarchical structure called a hierarchical structure called a decision treedecision tree..

4. Assessment of Utility 4. Assessment of Utility FunctionsFunctions

• IndicatorsIndicators can be very different from the point of view of typology, measure can be very different from the point of view of typology, measure units etc … units etc …

HOW IS IT POSSIBLE TO “HOW IS IT POSSIBLE TO “COMPARE APPLES AND ORANGESCOMPARE APPLES AND ORANGES”?”?

• The The NORMALIZATIONNORMALIZATION process makes the data homogeneous and operable. process makes the data homogeneous and operable. Through this process, the Through this process, the INDICATORSINDICATORS lose their dimension and lose their dimension and BECOMEBECOME COMPARABLECOMPARABLE to one another because they are to one another because they are TRANSFORMEDTRANSFORMED into into RELATIVE VALUESRELATIVE VALUES. .

• This transformation is done by building a This transformation is done by building a UTILITY FUNCTIONUTILITY FUNCTION..

• The The UTILITY FUNCTIONUTILITY FUNCTION is a curve that assigns to each value of the is a curve that assigns to each value of the INDICATORINDICATOR a corresponding a corresponding RELATIVERELATIVE VALUE SCOREVALUE SCORE of preference/utility, of preference/utility, between between 00 and and 11..

Utente

No idea what this means!


► Let’s consider the “Let’s consider the “Benthic MacroinvertebratesBenthic Macroinvertebrates” ” indicator, measured by means of the indicator, measured by means of the IBE IBE -- Indice Indice Biotico EstesoBiotico Esteso – (Ghetti, 1997) – (Ghetti, 1997)

► The components considered by IBE are:The components considered by IBE are:

Faunistic GroupsTotal number of Systematic Units (U.S.) constituting the community

0 - 1 2 - 5 6 - 10 11 - 15 16 - 20 21 - 25 26 - 30 31 - 35

Plecoptera (Leuctra°)More than one U.S. / / 8 9 10 11 12 13

Only one U.S. / / 7 8 9 10 11 12

Ephemeroptera (Baetidae and Caenidae°°)More than one U.S. / / 7 8 9 10 11 12

Only one U.S. / / 6 7 8 9 10 11

TricopteraMore than one U.S. / 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Only one U.S. / 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Gammaridae, Attidae, Palemonidae All the below U.S. absent / 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Asellidae All the below U.S. absent / 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Oligochaeta o Chironomidae All the below U.S. absent 1 2 3 4 5 / / /

All the previous Taxa absent There could be some organisms with aerial respiration 0 1 / / / / / /

PRESENCE OF VULNERABLE SYSTEMATIC UNITS (VSU)= it considers the presence of one or more sensitive systematic units according to the indications and the order indicated in the Chart.

NUMBER OF SYSTEMATIC UNITS (NSU)= total number of systematic units that compose the benthic macroinvertebrate community;


► The result of the IBE application is a The result of the IBE application is a numerical valuenumerical value of the index that can be of the index that can be translated into translated into 5 levels5 levels of of biological qualitybiological quality as shown below: as shown below:

LEVEL 1 LEVEL 2 LEVEL 3 LEVEL 4 LEVEL 5

I.B.E. (score) > 10 8 – 9 6 – 7 4 – 5 1, 2, 3

IBE Quality Ranks

► The “The “reference conditionsreference conditions” for ” for the IBE is the status the IBE is the status corresponding to the “corresponding to the “Level 1Level 1” ”

INDICATOR INDICATOR VALUE VALUATION

IBE < 3,5 BAD

IBE 3,5 - 5,5 SUBSTANDARD

IBE 5,5 - 7,5 SUFFICIENT

IBE 7,5 - 9,5 GOOD

IBE > 9,5 HIGH


► The The Utility FunctionUtility Function ( (UFUF) expresses the same ) expresses the same step classification of the methodologystep classification of the methodology

f = v(a)f = v(a)

aa = average (IBE= average (IBEiiyy) of the reference period) of the reference period

ii = the season= the seasonyy = the year of sampling= the year of sampling

INDICATOR INDICATOR VALUE NORMALISED SCORE VALUATIONIBE < 3,5 0 BADIBE 3,5-5,5 0,25 SUBSTANDARDIBE 5,5-7,5 0,50 SUFFICIENTIBE 7,5-9,5 0,75 GOODIBE >9,5 1 HIGH

0.25

0.5

0.75

9,5

v(a)

ibe

1.0

5,53,5 7,5

0.25

0.5

0.75

9,5

v(a)

ibe

1.0

5,53,5 7,5

Max value of the indicator (typically Max value of the indicator (typically corresponding to the Reference Status)corresponding to the Reference Status)

UF max valueUF max value







PRODUCEDPRODUCED

LIMLIM




IBEIBE















0,10,1

0,10,1

0,30,3

0,50,5

0,80,8

0,70,7

0,30,3

0,20,2POWER POWER INSTALLEDINSTALLED

0,40,4

0,40,4

0,20,2






Assign a Assign a WEIGHTWEIGHT to each indicator / to each indicator / criterion indicating criterion indicating its importance in its importance in

relation to the relation to the othersothers





RELATIVE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE IMPORTANCE ASSESSMENTASSESSMENT


5. Criteria weighting5. Criteria weighting

• CRITERIACRITERIA are generally are generally characterized by different characterized by different levels of importance that must levels of importance that must be necessarily included in the be necessarily included in the evaluation. evaluation.

• This is obtained by assigning a This is obtained by assigning a ““WEIGHTWEIGHT” to each indicator ” to each indicator and to each criterion.and to each criterion.

• The weight is a The weight is a relative valuerelative value assigned to a criterion / assigned to a criterion / indicator that indicates its indicator that indicates its relative importance relative importance among the among the other criteria / indicators other criteria / indicators considered. considered.

(0.66*0.50) + (0.33*0.75)=0.577(0.66*0.50) + (0.33*0.75)=0.577

CR

ITE

RIO

NS

TA

TU

S IN

DIC

AT

OR

SS

UB

-ND

ICA

TO

RS

weight

indicator value

weight

indicator value







PRODUCEDPRODUCED

LIMLIM




IBEIBE















0,10,1

0,10,1

0,30,3

0,50,5

0,80,8

0,70,7

0,30,3


0,40,4

0,40,4

0,20,2








ASSESS/ ASSESS/ CALCULATECALCULATE the the EFFECTS EFFECTS of each of each

alternative on the alternative on the specific casespecific case







6. “Performance” evaluation of 6. “Performance” evaluation of each alternativeeach alternative

• In this phase/step the In this phase/step the effectseffects of each of each alternativealternative on the specific case is on the specific case is assessed/calculated assessed/calculated







PRODUCEDPRODUCED

LIMLIM




IBEIBE















0,10,1

0,10,1

0,30,3

0,50,5

0,80,8

0,70,7

0,30,3


0,40,4

0,40,4

0,20,2








ASSESS/ ASSESS/ CALCULATECALCULATE the the EFFECTS EFFECTS of each of each

alternative on the alternative on the specific casespecific case







Summarizing..Summarizing..

7. Sensitivity Analysis7. Sensitivity Analysis

• Available information could be Available information could be UNCERTAINUNCERTAIN or or INACCURATEINACCURATE because of possible because of possible conceptual or measurement errors.conceptual or measurement errors.

• The sensitivity analysis is a sort of “The sensitivity analysis is a sort of “BACK ANALYSISBACK ANALYSIS” to define ” to define HOWHOW and and HOW HOW MUCHMUCH these possible errors influence the final result of the evaluation. these possible errors influence the final result of the evaluation.

• The The SENSITIVITYSENSITIVITY ANALYSISANALYSIS evaluates the evaluates the ROBUSTNESSROBUSTNESS of the alternatives of the alternatives ranking with respect to the approximation of ranking with respect to the approximation of UTILITY FUNCTIONSUTILITY FUNCTIONS, , SCORESSCORES and and above all above all WEIGHTSWEIGHTS..

Utente

back-up?

7. Sensitivity Analysis7. Sensitivity Analysis

• In the In the SHARE MCASHARE MCA there are there are 22 typologies of typologies of SENSITIVITY ANALYSISSENSITIVITY ANALYSIS : :

► FOR THE CRITERIAFOR THE CRITERIA: some decision criteria are added or deleted : some decision criteria are added or deleted it’s it’s used for checking if fundamental criteria are missing;used for checking if fundamental criteria are missing;

► FOR THE WEIGHTFOR THE WEIGHT (the most applied): the weights of some indicators (the most applied): the weights of some indicators could be changed could be changed this allows for the determination of the influence this allows for the determination of the influence of any indicator on the final decision.of any indicator on the final decision.

Why to use multi-criteria Why to use multi-criteria analysis?analysis?

1.1. SYNTHESISSYNTHESIS: it allows summarization of complex information: it allows summarization of complex information2.2. RATIONALITYRATIONALITY: it organizes data in a structured way: it organizes data in a structured way3.3. PARTICIPATIONPARTICIPATION: it helps the dialogue on concrete parameters: it helps the dialogue on concrete parameters4.4. MULTIOBJECTIVEMULTIOBJECTIVE: it allows consideration of several alternatives: it allows consideration of several alternatives5.5. TRANSPARENCYTRANSPARENCY: the weights are explicit: the weights are explicit6.6. FLEXIBILITYFLEXIBILITY: it allows consideration of different alternatives, criteria, : it allows consideration of different alternatives, criteria,

indicators and weights tailored on each specific local, regional and national indicators and weights tailored on each specific local, regional and national situationsituation

7.7. REPEATABILITYREPEATABILITY: the MCA process can be carried out backward and forward : the MCA process can be carried out backward and forward enhancing decision qualityenhancing decision quality

8.8. FREEFREE: the software for the MCA application is free: the software for the MCA application is free9.9. REGULATION COMPLIANTREGULATION COMPLIANT10.10. EX-ANTE & EX-POSTEX-ANTE & EX-POST: it’s a tool for use in planning and managing: it’s a tool for use in planning and managing

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and again!

3-The SHARE main objective

Education

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