3. Develop3. Developalternativesalternatives

1. Recognize that1. Recognize thatproblem/opportunityproblem/opportunity

existsexists 2. Diagnose/2. Diagnose/Analyze Analyze CausesCauses

Decision Making Steps

4. Choose4. Choosebest solutionbest solution

5. Implement5. Implementsolutionsolution

6. Evaluate6. Evaluatedecisiondecision

Decision-Making ContingenciesDecision-Making Contingencies

HIGH

LOW

TECH

NICA

L KN

OWLE

DGE

(Pro

blem

Sol

utio

n – S

teps

3+)

LOWHIGHGOAL CONSENSUS

(Problem Identification – Steps 1 & 2)

1

43

2

RATIONAL APPROACH

COMPUTATION

BARGAINING

COALITION FORMATION

JUDGMENT

INTUITION

TRIAL AND ERROR

BARGAINING

JUDGMENT

“Garbage Can Model”

Garbage Can Model: ImplicationsGarbage Can Model: Implications Problems may persist without Problems may persist without

solutions being attempted.solutions being attempted. Solutions may be attempted Solutions may be attempted

without solving problems.without solving problems. Solutions may be proposed to Solutions may be proposed to

problems that do not exist.problems that do not exist. A few problems are solved.A few problems are solved. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7L

AN_FB1Nc

With 600 jobs in jeopardy, would With 600 jobs in jeopardy, would you make a decision that would you make a decision that would result in:result in:

• A) a 100% chance of saving 200 A) a 100% chance of saving 200 jobs? ORjobs? OR

• B) a 33 1/3% chance of saving 600 B) a 33 1/3% chance of saving 600 jobs and a 66 2/3% chance of saving jobs and a 66 2/3% chance of saving no jobs?no jobs?

With 600 jobs in jeopardy, With 600 jobs in jeopardy, would you make a decision that would you make a decision that would result in:would result in:

• C) a 100% chance of losing 400 C) a 100% chance of losing 400 jobs?jobs?

OROR• D) a 33 1/3% chance of losing no D) a 33 1/3% chance of losing no

jobs and a 66 2/3% chance of losing jobs and a 66 2/3% chance of losing 600 jobs?600 jobs?

A and C are exactly the sameA and C are exactly the same

• A) a 100% chance of saving 200 jobsA) a 100% chance of saving 200 jobsEqualsEquals• C) a 100% chance of losing 400 jobsC) a 100% chance of losing 400 jobs

B and D are exactly the sameB and D are exactly the same

• B) a 33 1/3% chance of saving 600 B) a 33 1/3% chance of saving 600 jobs and a 66 2/3% chance of jobs and a 66 2/3% chance of saving no jobssaving no jobs

EqualsEquals• D) a 33 1/3% chance of losing no D) a 33 1/3% chance of losing no

jobs and a 66 2/3% chance of losing jobs and a 66 2/3% chance of losing 600 jobs600 jobs

A,B,C,D are all A,B,C,D are all statisticallystatistically equal equal

• That is, they all have the same long-That is, they all have the same long-run “expected value”run “expected value”

• But A is preferred over B and D over But A is preferred over B and D over C.C.

FramingFraming

• To prevent the way a problem is To prevent the way a problem is presented presented (framing) (framing) from biasing the from biasing the decision:decision:– Try to look at problem in different ways Try to look at problem in different ways

• Re-word itRe-word it• Put yourself in the position of other peoplePut yourself in the position of other people• Leave the problem and come back to it laterLeave the problem and come back to it later

Myers-Briggs TestMyers-Briggs Test• Has 4 dimensions:Has 4 dimensions:

– Extraversion vs. IntroversionExtraversion vs. Introversion– Judger vs. PerceiverJudger vs. Perceiver

• (decisive vs. flexible)(decisive vs. flexible)

– Sensing vs. IntuitingSensing vs. Intuiting• SensingSensing - Look at the facts, details - Look at the facts, details

• IntuitingIntuiting - Get a general overview, the “big picture” - Get a general overview, the “big picture”

– Thinking vs. FeelingThinking vs. Feeling• ThinkingThinking - Analyze objectively, reason - Analyze objectively, reason

• FeelingFeeling - Consider the impact on people - Consider the impact on people

Myers-Briggs TypesMyers-Briggs TypesHigher and lower positions in each of Higher and lower positions in each of the dimensions are used to classify the dimensions are used to classify people into one of people into one of sixteensixteen different different

personality typespersonality types.

Vroom’sVroom’sNormative Decision Model Normative Decision Model (Leader-Participation Model)(Leader-Participation Model)

Helps gauge the appropriate Helps gauge the appropriate amount of participation for amount of participation for subordinatessubordinates

5 levels of 5 levels of leader participation leader participation stylesstyles ranging from highly ranging from highly autocratic to highly democratic.autocratic to highly democratic.

Vroom’sVroom’sNormative Decision Model StylesNormative Decision Model Styles

A1 A1 – Leader makes decision alone– Leader makes decision alone A2A2 – Leader obtains information from – Leader obtains information from

subordinates, then makes decision alonesubordinates, then makes decision alone C1C1 – Leader obtains suggestions from – Leader obtains suggestions from

subordinates individually, then makes subordinates individually, then makes decision alonedecision alone

C2C2 – Leader obtains suggestions from – Leader obtains suggestions from subordinates collectively, then makes subordinates collectively, then makes decision alonedecision alone

GG – Decision by group consensus – Decision by group consensus

Vroom ModelVroom Model Participation is permitted primarily to: Participation is permitted primarily to:

Enhance Decision Enhance Decision QualityQualityFoster Subordinate Foster Subordinate MoraleMorale

Series of questions asked about the Series of questions asked about the situation situation (leader expertise, (leader expertise, importance of subordinate importance of subordinate commitment, etc.)commitment, etc.)

Trends Toward Greater Trends Toward Greater Participation by Lower-Level Participation by Lower-Level EmployeesEmployees

EducationEducation TechnologyTechnology DownsizingDownsizing DeregulationDeregulation GlobalizationGlobalization

Creative PeopleCreative People

• Background KnowledgeBackground Knowledge• CuriosityCuriosity• Open-mindednessOpen-mindedness• Self-ConfidenceSelf-Confidence• Not afraid to be differentNot afraid to be different• PersistencePersistence• Relaxed and playful attitudeRelaxed and playful attitude

Creative OrganizationsCreative Organizations• Selection: Creative people identified by Selection: Creative people identified by

past achievements, testspast achievements, tests• Free time to create Free time to create • Freedom to choose problems Freedom to choose problems • Low Bureaucracy Low Bureaucracy • Long time orientationLong time orientation• Tolerate FailuresTolerate Failures• Reward SuccessesReward Successes