2Q’ 14 Macroeconomic indexes and market indicators review NAI Becar , July 2014

2Q’ 14 Macroeconomic indexes and market indicators reviewNAI Becar, July 2014

MACROECONOMIC INDEXES REVIEW:

RUSSIATHE USA

GDP

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

5

10

15

20

0.76 0.99

1.30 1.66 1.22 1.49

1.86 2.02 2.22 2.24

12.56 13.32

13.96 14.22 13.90 14.42

14.99 15.81

15.09 15.39

Russia Linear (Russia) The USA Linear (The USA)b

ln, $

Source: Ministry of Economic Development (Russia)

Unemployment rate

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014 May 20140%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

6.0%

6.2%

8.3%

7.3%6.5%

5.5% 5.5% 5.6%

4.9%

4.7%

6.7%

10.0% 9.8% 8.6%

7.7%

7.0%6.7%

6.3%

Russia The USA%

Source: Russian Federal Statistics service

Unemployment rate

Source: Russian Federal Statistics service, The Linneman’s presentation 1Q’ 14

Russia The USA

High unemployment rate

The Republic of Ingushetia

43,7% New York City, NY 7,1%

The Chechen Republic26,9%

Miami, FL 7,2%

The Tyva Republic 19,3% Chicago, IL 7,9%

Middle unemployment rate

Perm Krai 6,5% Atlanta, GA 6,9%

Orlovskaya oblast 5,8% Philadelphia, PA 6,3%

Low unemployment rate

Moscow 1,7% Washington, D.C. 4,8%

Saint Petersburg 1,5% Houston, TX 5,2%

Moscow Oblast 2,8% Dallas, TX 5,3%

CPI

2012 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 201498%

99%

100%

101%

102%

103%

104%

105%

106%

107%

108%

106.6%

106.5%

102.3%

104.8%

101.7%

101.5% 101.5%

102.1%

Russia The USA

%


Money supply

2009 2010 2011 2012 41609 41640 417910

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

381.64

449.05

588.59

720.09

857.86

923.67 889.58

Russiab

ln. $

Source: The Bank of Russia

Retail Volume

1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/20140

100

200

300

400

Russiab

ln.,

$

337,80

36,77

348,42

39,88 45,41

374,50

50,82

397,87416,54

57,02 61,73

423,94

Retail volume%

Internet sales % of retail volume

Source: The Linneman’s presentation 1Q’ 14

Industrial production

index

Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-1380%

90%

100%

110%

120%

106.4% 106.6% 106.1%

103.6%

99.6%

92.6%

95,2%

98.4%

101.6%

103.7%

Russia

%


MACROECONOMIC ENDEXES REVIEW:

RUSSIAMOSCOWSAINT PETERSBURG

GDP/GRP

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 F0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

21,609.80

26,917.20

33,247.50

41,276.80

38,807.20

46,308.50

55,799.60

62,599.10

67,381.00 68,054.81

666.39 825.10 1,119.70 1,431.80 1,475.80 1,699.50 2,071.80 2,138.00 2,206.40 2,228.06

4,135.20 5,260.20 6,696.30

8,248.70 7,127.00 8,375.90

10,021.60 11,152.00 12,000.00 12,120.00

Russia Saint Petersburg Moscowb

ln. r

ub

.

Source: Ministry of Economic Development , Petrostat, Mosgorstat

Unemployment rate

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014 May 2014

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

7.1% 7.1%

6.0% 6.2%

8.3%

7.3%

6.5%

5.5%

5.5%

5.6%

4.9%

2.2%2.4%

2.1% 2.0%

4.1%

2.6%

2.0%

1.1%

2.0% 1.9%

1.6%

0.8%

1.6%

0.8% 0.9%

2.8%

1.8%1.4%

0.8%

2.0%1.8% 1.6%

Russia Saint Petersbug Moscow

%

Source: Russian Federal Statistics servicePetrostat, Mosgorstat

Series1Cost Income

CPI

2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 201498%

100%

102%

104%

106%

108%

110%

108.8%

106.1% 106.6%106.5%

102.3%

104.8%

109.4%

105.9%106.1%

106.7%

103.0%

105.8%

109.0%

106.0%

107.3%

106.2%

102.7%

104.6%

Russia Saint Petersburg Moscow%

Source: Russian Federal Statistics servicePetrostat, Mosgorstat

Money supply

2009 2010 2011 2012 41609 41640 417910

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

12,975.90

15,267.60

20,011.90

24,483.1129,167.30

31,404.70 30,245.60

Russiab

ln r

ub

.

Source: The Central Bank of The Russian Federation

Money Supply

Source: The Central Bank of The Russian Federation

Russia27,000

27,500

28,000

28,500

29,000

29,500

30,000

30,500

28,083.50

30 245,60

Russia

Income Cost

bln

ru

b.

Structure of the Federal budget

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*0

5

10

15

20

25

1816.3

18.9 17.919.6 20,5 19.3 18,3

23,4 22,5 22,4

19,620,4 20,6

20,118,9

Cost Income

GD

P, %

Russia

Source: Ministry of Economic Development

* target indicator

Structure of the budget

Moscow

Source: http://budget.mos.ru/

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

13,8

11.2

14.213.2 13.9 13.3 12.4 12.5

14,0 15,9

16,2

13,4

14,8 13,814,8 13,6

GR

P, %

* target indicator

Series1Cost Income

Structure of the budget

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

38,9 41,0

28.2

20.4 19.3 17.5 17.7 18.5

41,7

43,1

28,8

21,1 19,517,6

19,3 19,4

Cost Income

GR

P, %

Saint Petersburg

Source: The Committee of Economic Policy and Strategic Panning

* target indicator

Capitalization Rates

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014

2Q20140%

5%

10%

15%

20%

9.00% 8.50% 9.50%9.50%

0.00%

9.80%9.25% 9.50% 9.50%

0.00%

9.50%9.50% 9.75% 9.75%

0.00%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q2014 2Q20140%

5%

10%

15%

20%

11.30%11.00%

11.25%11.25%

0.00%

12.30%

11.00%

12.00%12.00%

0.00%

11.35%12.00% 12.25% 12.25%

0.00%

Off

ice

Ret

ail

Sto

rag

e

Source: NAI Becar internal data

2Q 2014

Retail Market Review

(Moscow & Saint Petersburg)

Main market indicators Moscow Saint Petersburg

Totaling, GLA 4 710 000 sq.m. 3 440 000 sq.m.

Growth dynamics compared to 1Q 2014.

+3,2% 0 %

Put into operation, GLA 144 000 sq.m. 0 тыс. кв.м

Dynamics of putting into operation compared to 1Q 2014.

+25% -100 %

Vacancy. 4,58% 7,2%

Vacancy dynamics compared to 1Q 2014.

+1,6% -8%

2Q 2014 New Deliveries

3.0%

97.0%

Moscow

New Deliveries

100.0%

Saint Petersburg

1Q 2011 1Q 2012 1Q 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 20140

50

100

150

200

250

300270

63

8

240

144

35 36

120

15.90

New deliveries

10

00

sq

.m.

2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 20142,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

3,5303,732

4,371 4,566 4,710

2,807 3,0903,424 3,440 3,440

Total supply, GLA

Moscow Saint Petersburg

10

00

sq

.m.

2Q 2014Rental rate for anchor tenants

280 – 2 260rub/sq.m. per annum

100 - 800$/sq.m. per annum

300 - 1 100rub/sq.m. per annum

105 - 388$/sq.m. per annum

Rental rate per sq.m.

1 400 - 12 750rub. per month

500 – 4 500$ per annum

700 – 5 800rub. per month

247 – 2 047$ per annum

Availability for 1000 people (GLA). 393 sq.m. 684 sq.m.

Availability dynamics compared to 1Q 2014

+3,2 % 0%

Main market indicators Moscow Saint Petersburg

2Q 2014

Office Market Review


Main market indicators


А В+ В С А В+ В С

Totaling, GLA 12 916 sq.m. 3 356 sq.m.

Growth dynamics compared to 1Q 2014.

+ 1,4 % +1,7%

Totaling , GLA3 734000

sq.m.

5 691000

sq.m.

2 264 000

sq.m.

1 227 000

sq.m.

700 000

sq.m.

669 000

sq.m.

810 000

sq.m.

1 177000

sq.m.

Put into operation, GLA 174 sq.m. 54,7 sq.m.

Put into operation, GLA174000

sq.m.

0sq.m.

0sq.m.

0sq.m.

44 100 sq.m.

8 700sq.m.

0sq.m

1 900sq.m.

Vacancy 18,2% 10,7% 12,6% 3,0% 16,4% 6,9% 8,9% 4,1%

Vacancy dynamics compared to 1Q 2014

+9 % +29% +18% -8% -10% -1% -3% +28%

Office Class A,B+,B,C

27 %

45 %

18 %

10 %

Moscow

Class А

Class В+

Class В

Class С

21%

20 %

24 %

35 %

Saint Petersburg


2 330rub. per month

823$ per

annum

1 663rub. per

month

587$ per

annum

1 390rub. per

month

491$ per

annum

860 rub. per

month

304$ per annu

m

1 525rub. per

month

540$ per

annum

1 230rub. per month

435$ per

annum

990rub. per month

350$ per

annum

830rub. per

month

290 $ per

annum

Rental rate dynamics compared to 1Q 2014.

-4% -5% -5% 0% +1,7% -4,1 % +3,9% 0%

Average availability (GLA) for 1 000 people.

1 078 sq.m. 668 sq.m.

Availability for 1000 people (GLA).

312 sq.m.

475 sq.m.

189 sq.m.

102sq.m.

139sq.m.

133sq.m.

161sq.m.

234 sq.m.

Availability dynamics compared to 3Q 2013.

+10% +0,8% 0 % 0 % +7% +1% 0% +0,2%

2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014

2Q20140

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

9,28710,14410,552

1018311,35512,881

1,565 1,728 1,826 2,079 2,127 2,179


10

00

sq

.m.

Office А,В,В+, GLA

1Q 2010

1Q 2011

1Q 2012

1Q 2013

1Q 2014

2Q 2014

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

266294

179 187

66

140

35.4 27 34.38.8

47.5 54.7

New deliveries

10

00

sq

.m.



А В+ В С А В+ В С

2Q 2014

Storage Market Review


Main market indicatorsMoscow Saint Petersburg

А В А В

Totaling, GLA 10 026 000 sq.m. 1 585 000 sq.m.

Growth dynamics compared to 1Q 2014

+ 2,5% 0%

Totaling, GLA 7 362 000 sq.m.

2 665 000 sq.m

1 080 000 sq.m

505 000 sq.m.

Put into operation, GLA 245 000 sq.m. 0%

Put into operation, GLA245 000

sq.m.0

sq.m.0

sq.m.0

sq.m.

Dynamics of putting into operation compared to 1Q 2014.

- 17% 0% 0% 0%

Storage Class A, B

72 %

28 %

Class А

Class В

Saint Petersburg

Moscow

Vacancy 3,4% 2,8% 8,5% 1,9%


350 - 434rub. per month

125 - 155 $ per

annum


110 - 140 $ per

annum


125 - 135 $ per

annum


95 - 120$ per annum

Rental rate dynamics compared to 1Q 2014

0% - 7,7% +7% -2%

Availability for 1000 people (2Q 2014)

837 sq. m. 315 sq. m.



А В А В

Total supply

1Q 2014 2Q 20140

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1,585 1,585

9,782 9,894

Saint Petersburg Moscow

10

00

sq

. m.

2Q’ 14 Macroeconomic indexes and market indicators review NAI Becar , July 2014

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Transcript of 2Q’ 14 Macroeconomic indexes and market indicators review NAI Becar , July 2014