25.10.2004 | Folie 1. 25.10.2004 | Folie 2 Workshop on Review and Assessment of European Air...

25.10.2004 | Folie 1

25.10.2004 | Folie 2

Workshop on Review and Assessment of European

Air Pollution Policies

25.10.2004 | Folie 3

EuropeanAir Pollution Policies

Assessment of health effects in an air pollution strategy

Jürgen Schneider

Umweltbundesamt GmbH

Project Manager Air Quality and Health at WHO (2002-2004)

25.10.2004 | Folie 4

• Introduction

• Key new findings on the effect of air

pollution on health (focussing on PM)

• Consequences for air pollution policy

• Conclusions


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Which effects?

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Tope

ka

St Lou

is

Steub

envil

le

Porta

ge

Knoxv

ille

Bosto

n

Pittsb

urgh

Geo

rgia

Coach

ella

Valley

Toro

nto

Mon

treal

8 Can

adian

Citie

s

Erfurt

Czech

Rep

ublic

Wes

t Midl

ands

Sydne

y

Melb

ourn

e

Mex

ico C

ity

Chong

qing

Santia

go

Way

ne C

ount

y

Easte

rn Te

nnes

see

Los A

ngele

s-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

be

ta

Summary Estimate North America

Associations with mortality have been demonstrated for many different locations with different methods and different scales

25.10.2004 | Folie 7


0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

All cau

ses

Cardi

opulm

onar

y

Lung

canc

er

All othe

r cau

ses

Ad

just

ed

RR

(9

5%

CI)

Associations with mortality have been demonstrated for many different locations with different methods and different scales

25.10.2004 | Folie 8


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Intervention studies:

• Coal ban in Dublin(Clancy et al., 2002)

• Utah valley• Atlanta Olympics• Hong Kong S emissions• German re-unification

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New methods

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Possible mechanisms

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PM exposure is asscoiated with :

• Arrythmia (Peters et al., 2000)

• Influence on heart rate variability (Pope et al., 1999; Holguin et

al., 2003,....)

• Acute arterial vasoconstriction (Brook at el., 2002)

• Increase of plasma viscosity (Peters et al., 1997)

• Increase of C-reactive protein (Peters et al., 2001)

• Myocardial infarction (Peters et al., 2001; D’Ippoliti et al., 2003)

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Some key findings of the systematic review on PM:

• Links between AP and several effetcs have been strengthened

• PM affects CV system

• Effects at very low levels (previously considered safe)

• Crucial components in tox studies: OC, UFP, HM

• Crucial sources: prim. Combustion sources

• LT effects outweigh ST effects

• Small scale differences in air quality might result in different

risks at least for some of the health outcomes

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Air pollution data Modeled levels* (or monitored)

Population at risk Overall

Susceptible groups

Concentration response function(s)

Exposure estimate

Background data Mortality rates Morbidity rates

Impact estimate

How to quantify the impacts?

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Annual

health loss

in DALYs

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Which indicator?

The Task Force on Health recommended to use PM2.5 as indicator for PM related mortality Apply the factor of the Pope et al. (2002) study for IAM

And noted that: different PM2.5 components may not be equally hazardous.

but concluded: it is not possible to quantify the relative importance of the

main PM components for effects on human health at this stage.

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resp

onse

exposure

.. concentration – response relationships for different health endpoints provide more useful information for designing effective strategies to reduce adverse effects on human health.

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Reduce hot spot exposure only?

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

PM10 µg/m3, JMW

Po

pu

lati

on

exp

ose

d

base case

No exceedance'

General reduction


25.10.2004 | Folie 19

One limit value for the whole of Europe?

0

10

20

30

40

50

Umea

(Swe)

Uppsa

la (S

we)

Got

henbu

rg (S

we)

Albac

ete (E

s)

Tartu (F

l)

Ovie

do (E

s)

Norwich

(UK)

Erfurt

(Ge)

Gald

akao

(Es)

Ipsw

ich (U

K)

Huelva

(Es)

Basel

(Ch)

Paris

(Fr)

Gre

noble

(Fr)

Antwerp

(Be)

Barce

lona

(Es)

Antwerp

I (B

e)

Pavia

(It)

Verona

(It)

Turin (I

t)

An

nu

al m

ean

PM

2.5

in µ

g/m

3


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Peaks or long-term?


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Conclusions• Air pollution still affects your health!• Reduction of exposure of the overall population is crucial!• For PM: Chronic effect on mortality seem to

outweigh acute effects – but its not the only effect

• Those exposed at hot spots seem to have a higher risk

• Additional insights will support to further refine strategies (PM monit, health,..)

Air quality and health

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Open questions• How to combine different tools effectively

(maximum benefit)?• How to combine the different scales effectively?• How to chose the ambition level? • How to balance the risk?

Air quality and health

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