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Transcript of 20th MAY 2020 › riskadvisoryservices › wp... · COVID -19/RAS/20th 4May 2020. COVID-19 REPORT...
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COVID-19 REPORT
SUMMARY
• The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally is now over 5 million, with over 325,000 deaths according to Worldometer.
• The World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned that COVID-19 “may never go away” and that we may see it
reach endemic levels. A report by the WHO’s mental health department also predicts a worldwide surge in cases of mental illness after months of isolation and uncertainty.
• Franco-German aid fund of €500 billion proposed to help EU countries hit hardest by COVID-19.
• China’s President, Xi Jinping, agrees to an impartial evaluation of the global response to the origins of this
pandemic and pledges the equivalent of £1.6 billion in aid for affected nations.
• The US has accused the WHO of allowing the pandemic to “spin out of control” as confirmed cases have reached 1.5 million in the country.
• The WHO member states have agreed on an independent review of the global pandemic response. Tedros
Ghebreyesus, the Director General, has vowed the WHO will continue to lead the fight against COVID-19.
• The World Economic Forum has produced a report listing the most worrying outcomes from the fallout of COVID-19 with a prolonged global economic recession, mass bankruptcies and industry failure topping of the list. Those participating in the survey have also stressed that this pandemic will have long-lasting effects as high unemployment shatters consumer confidence and, exacerbates inequality and strains social safety nets. A link to the report can be seen here.
GLOBAL MAP OF CASES OF COVID-19
Source: Centre’s for Disease Control and Prevention 19.05.2020
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UK UPDATE
For an interactive map of COVID-19 deaths in the UK click here.
• The government has also announced plans to measure the threat from COVID-19 in England, with a new five-level, colour-coded alert system. See here for details.
• The number of people claiming benefits sharply increased in April, the first full month of lockdown, with 856,500 new claimants bringing the national total to 2.1 million. Chancellor Rishi Sunak is quoted as saying it is “not obvious there will be an immediate bounce back” for the UK economy once lockdown restrictions ease. He has also said that more than two million self-employed people whose businesses are affected by COVID-19 have applied for government grants.
• Anyone in the UK aged five or over with symptoms can now be tested for COVID-19, says the Health Secretary.
• Loss of smell or taste have been added to the UK’s list of COVID-19 symptoms that people should look out for and self-isolate with. Ear, nose, and throat doctors have been warning for weeks that more symptoms should be included, until now only a fever or persistent cough have been used as a reason to self-isolate.
• There have been mixed results for the trialled NHS contact-tracing app on the Isle of Wight. There has been a sizeable uptake from the population, but it is not entirely clear whether some are from the mainland. Also, currently the app does not ask about any other symptoms apart from a persistent cough or temperature and does not have the function to enter a test result of positive or negative.
• The transport secretary has said people arriving in the UK from countries with low COVID-19 rates could be exempt from new quarantine rules. The boss of the UK’s national tourism agency has also called for ‘air bridges’. This would allow travel to resume from countries with low COVID-19 rates. A government spokesman has said
TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES
248,818
TOTAL DEATHS 35,341
UK DAILY CASES 2,412
CLICK HERE FOR LIVE REPORTED CASES FROM PUBLIC HEALTH ENGLAND
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COVID-19 REPORT
they are looking into this, but it has not become an agreed policy.
• Gatwick Airport has been urged to drop expansion plans by campaigners in light of this pandemic. Last month Gatwick had confirmed that it was still going ahead with plans to bring its emergency runway into full time use. Airport bosses now believe it will take four years to get passenger numbers back to pre-pandemic levels. Gatwick Area Conservation Campaign has called on the airport to drop its plans arguing it was not compatible with national and local environmental goals. Also, there are concerns that council resources would be absorbed by the development, when they should be going to support people and businesses affected by this pandemic.
• The number of people claiming unemployment benefit in the UK rose by 69% in April, according the Office of National Statistics. It rose to 2.097 million claimants, the highest level since 1996. Forecasters predict unemployment could reach 10% in the April-June period.
• The Bank of England has warned the UK could be heading for its sharpest economic slump in more than 300 years after productivity fell rapidly in the first quarter.
• The University of Cambridge is leading the way for further education amid this pandemic. They have said they will not hold face to face lectures for the next academic year. Lectures will be available to students online with the possibility of smaller teaching groups if they meet social distancing guidelines. Currently teaching is online with exams being held virtually but the university sees no reason to stop given that levels of social distancing may be in force for some time.
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REGIONAL UPDATES
(John Hopkins University, 2020)
(Worldometer, 20.05.2020)
*Figures will vary between sources
CLICK HERE FOR GRAPH DETAILS
CLICK HERE FOR LIVE REPORTED CASES
COUNTRIES/REGIONS 213
PATIENTS RECOVERED 1,972,026
TOTAL DEATHS 325,238
TOTAL CONFIRMED CASES
5,004,044
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ASIA China China is currently battling a second wave of infections in the provinces of Jilin and Shulan in the northeast of the country. Strict lockdowns are in place as the country fights a “long war” against the virus. A cluster of 34 new cases in Jilin is linked to a woman who tested positive on the 7th May in Shulan. Though the numbers are small the outbreak has sent alarm bells ringing as no cases had been reported in the area for 73 days. Wang Bin, a senior health official at the National Health Commission, has said the situation was serious as China was in the spotlight. Fu Chen, Director of the Shanghai Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, warned that measures to contain the virus would have to be enforced for a long time to come. The outbreak of second clusters proved that the prevention and control strategy was more complicated than originally thought.
Taiwan The Chinese envoy to the WHO has denounced support shown by the US and other members to Taiwan during its annual ministerial assembly. Currently, the US and China are having a war of words over the independence of Taiwan. The US want the Chinese government to respect Taiwan’s independence, but China contests this view and considers Taiwan as a Chinese province. Taiwan does not currently have a seat at the UN assembly with calls to add it as an observer. The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, has said Taiwan’s exclusion “further damages the WHO’s credibility and effectiveness at a time when the world needs it most”. Mr Pompeo has directly attacked the Director-General of the WHO and been openly scathing of China’s attempts to block Taiwan’s independent legitimacy.
Singapore Singapore, an island nation of approximately 5.7 million people, is grappling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in Asia. Technology is at the heart of a social distancing drive by law enforcement as they use a fleet of 30 drones to monitor crowd levels in public parks. This has the benefit of not putting officers on the front line where they may get infected. It is also trialling ‘robotic dogs’ to test how artificial intelligence could help reduce human contact in public spaces. The device is currently remote controlled and is equipped with cameras and sensors to help estimate the number of visitors to a particular area. The US-based Boston Dynamics originally built the ‘dog’ as an observation device to go where humans could not and has previously been used by bomb disposal squads.
India India have over 106,000 confirmed cases and 3,300 deaths reported so far. The government has extended the lockdown until the end of May, though areas with reduced numbers of cases have been allowed to ease their lockdowns. State governments can issue their own guidelines on some matters with Delhi having reopened their public transport network. This comes amid high rates of infection in some of the worst affected areas. These included the financial hub of Mumbai, as well as the capital New Delhi and the states of Tamil Nadu and Gujarat. Local markets have reopened, and industrial and construction activities have resumed across many regions. However, schools and places of worship have remained closed and domestic and international air travel is still suspended. While India’s number of cases has surpassed that of China, its death rate is low as a percentage of cases, at around 3% compared to around 6% for the US. Though doctors have warned they are facing a shortage of hospital beds if the crisis continues at the rate it is currently.
Pakistan Pakistan has repatriated 274 students from the Chinese city of Wuhan according to the ministry of foreign affairs. While the outbreak had largely been brought under control in the place known as the centre of the outbreak new clusters have been emerging in recent days.
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AFRICA The WHO has warned that nearly a quarter of a billion Africans could contract COVID-19 in the first year of the pandemic, with 150,000 to 190,000 fatalities. Experts have warned that fragile healthcare systems across the continent could be overwhelmed in the face of a severe outbreak of the disease. The virus has reached every nation on the continent with a collective death toll of over 2,800 so far. There have been over 88,000 confirmed infections and over 33,800 recoveries according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. Several African presidents have said wealthy countries are failing Africa, with pledges of financial support and debt relief falling well short of the continent’s needs. African countries do not have the resources to channel billions of dollars into their health systems and economic stimulus packages and have been reliant on aid from more developed countries.
Nigeria Nigeria will impose ‘precision lockdown’ measures in areas that report rapid increases of COVID-19, the Chairman of the Presidential Task Force has said.
South Africa South Africa will start a phased reopening of schools on June 1st after nearly two months of closures due to this pandemic. All grade 7 and 12 pupils will be able to return with other year groups when social distancing is possible in the individual schools. Rwanda Five humanoid robots have been delivered to Rwanda where they will assist in COVID-19 screening, deliver food and drugs to patients, as well as act as video-conferencing links between patients and doctors. Their main purpose is to reduce health workers' exposure to COVID-19 patients and can allegedly screen 50 to 150 people a minute, record and store patient data, and alert health workers to abnormalities. The robots have been manufactured by a Belgium based company.
AMERICAS The Pan American Health Organisation has warned that the new COVID-19 pandemic is spreading rapidly in the tri-border area of the Amazon between Brazil, Colombia and Peru and threatens to infect remote indigenous communities. The virus is fast spreading through densely populated Amazon border cities and the greatest danger is now in the virus spreading to isolated villages. The head of the organisation has expressed “hopes” to continue working with the US even given their disagreement over the role the WHO has played in the pandemic.
Brazil Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has greeted supporters and posed for photographs with children wearing a face mask. He has disregarded public health advice to social distance after losing two health ministers in a month. The country currently has over 271,000 cases and close to 18,000 deaths, putting it in fourth just in front of the UK. Health experts have said the amount of testing is in short supply and the real number of cases could be far higher. The Health Ministry says only 338,000 tests were processed by the beginning of last week compared to European countries now reaching the 2 million testing mark.
This comes as the Mayor of Brazil’s largest city, Sao Paulo, has said its health system could collapse, and has demanded extra emergency beds to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping the city. Sao Paulo has a population of around 12 million and has been in lockdown for nearly two months. Businesses, schools, and public spaces have been closed and people have been asked to stay at home. However, officials say social distancing has been largely ignored as people refuse to wear masks and have been driving to the beach. The Mayor has said they first have to stop the spread of the virus before they can ease restrictions, with harsher lockdown restrictions now likely to take effect.
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Chile Around half of the 50-member Senate and four ministers have self-quarantined after coming into contact with at least three colleagues infected with COVID-19. The country has recently recorded a 60 per cent increase in confirmed cases of the virus despite implementing countermeasures for over six weeks. The government has recently imposed a total lockdown in the capital Santiago, which has recorded more than 80 percent of the country's 49,000 cases. Chile is likely to see further rises in numbers of COVID-19 cases due to ongoing anti-government protests.
Mexico It has been alleged that COVID-19 deaths in Mexico may be five times higher than official government figures, according to a media investigation. Monitoring of morgues and crematoriums in Mexico City has revealed that there has been a significant increase in the rate of deaths as compared with mortality rates in pre-pandemic times. Additionally, figures in the government have indicated anonymously that it is government policy to undercount mortality figures. However, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has reacted angrily to the reports, accusing media outlets of trying to undermine his administration. Despite evidence that the virus is spreading rapidly in Mexico, where social distancing has proven impossible in some urban areas, hundreds of municipalities have lifted restrictions aimed at curbing the effects of COVID-19. López Obrador’s administration has relied heavily on modelling to track the spread of the virus and has conducted very little testing. In Mexico dozens of health workers have been attacked as they are seen to be infected and spreading the disease. It is unclear why people would want to attack health workers, but psychologists believe the country is very fearful and ignorant of the virus and this is being played out against people who are representative of the disease.
Venezuela The Central Bank of Venezuela has launched a legal claim to try and force the Bank of England to release £820 million worth of its gold holdings. The country is already suffering from US sanctions and needs the funds “as a matter of urgency” to buy food and medical supplies amid the COVID-19 pandemic. It follows a request made weeks ago asking for the value to be transferred to the United Nations. The country’s economy has collapsed under the leadership of President Maduro, whose leadership is not recognised by dozens of nations including the UK and the US and is currently in a declared state of emergency. Though an oil rich nation they are currently importing oil from Iran, heightening the US naval presence in the area. The US has offered to lift sanctions if its leaders agree to a power sharing deal. This would mean President Maduro stepping aside and allowing a transitional council until fresh elections bring in a new leadership. Mr Maduro has resisted any attempts to remove him from power with alleged backing from Russia, China, and Cuba.
Nicaragua More reports are still coming out of Nicaragua that the country faces COVID-19 chaos after there have been more reports of “express burials” by the government to hide the true number of infections. So far, the country has only reported 254 cases of COVID-19 and 17 deaths. Epidemiologists predict a rapid community spreading of the virus.
United States United States President Donald Trump has argued that it is “a badge of honour” that the US has the world highest number of confirmed COVID-19 infections. He has claimed this to be a good thing as it in effect means testing in the US is better than elsewhere. However, while the US has conducted the largest volume of tests it is only ranked 16th on a per capita basis, according to Our World in Data, a scientific publication based at Oxford University.
President Trump has also told White House reporters that he has been taking the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine for several weeks in order to defend against COVID-19. The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), however, has warned that the drug should not be used for that purpose as it could cause irregular heartbeats and other cardiac trauma. President Trump has previously promoted the drug as an effective treatment for COVID-19, despite little to no evidence that it has a positive effect. White House medical staff have indicated that the potential benefits of the President taking hydroxychloroquine outweigh the relative risks.
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Elsewhere, the president has threatened to permanently withdraw funding from the WHO in a hostile letter sent to the Director General. The letter outlined a 30-day deadline for the agency to show commitment to “substantive improvements” in its ability to demonstrate independence from the Chinese government. Finally, in the US, the governors of New York and California have cleared the way for sporting events to resume, without crowds, in June.
The Trump administration has also awarded a contract to make COVID-19 drugs in the US. This would greatly reduce their reliance on India and China for critical medicines. The contract is worth $812 million for a newly formed company to manufacture the drugs and the drug ingredients to fight COVID-19. The company Phlow Corp will initially be given a four-year contract worth $354 million with the rest over a ten year period if extended. On the company’s website they have said: "The manufacturing of generic drugs in the US is vulnerable to disruptions in foreign drug supply chains - this has been made more pressing by recent trade wars and the COVID-19 pandemic."
Also, US stocks have soared with reports of early-stage data on a drug that could fight COVID-19 and the promise of greater economic stimulus for the economy all buoying investor confidence. Experts still predict volatility in the market but, with the easing in lockdown measures, stocks in cruise liners and airlines have all begun to rise alongside pharmaceutical companies connected to a COVID-19 vaccine.
Canada Canada and the US have agreed to extend the non-essential travel ban between the two countries by another 30 days. Essential cross-border workers like healthcare professionals, airline crews, and truck drivers are still permitted to cross. Much of Canada's food supply comes from or via the US. Canada sends 75 percent of its exports to the US and about 18 percent of American exports go to Canada. The US-Canada border is the world’s longest between two nations. Americans who are returning to the US and Canadians who are returning to Canada are also exempt from the border closure. On Tuesday 19th May, Canada's Public Health Agency reported that the country had seen a total of 78,499 confirmed COVID-19 cases, up more than 1,000 from the previous day.
EUROPE
Italy and Spain are among a number of European countries further easing their lockdown restrictions. Most businesses in Italy, including bars and hairdressers, are reopening after more than two months of nationwide lockdown measures.
Italy On Sunday 17th May the country recorded the fewest daily deaths since it entered lockdown in March. However, cases on Tuesday 19th May rose to 813, a sharp rise from 451 on Monday 18th. The statistics come as Italy has eased its lockdown measures and bars and restaurants have reopened, albeit with social distancing restrictions in place. The Italian Prime Minister, Guiseppe Conte, has told the WHO that he has “cautious optimism” about the next phase of the pandemic as the country eased its lockdown measures.
France The French President, Emmanuel Macron, has lost his outright majority in parliament, after a group of MPs broke away to form a new party. The new group, ‘Ecology, Democracy, Solidarity’, want to focus on green issues and social inequality. The move comes amid the French President struggling in the polls as a result of growing discord from the public following his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sweden Data shows that Sweden has the highest per capita number of deaths over the past seven days as a result of COVID-19. Sweden had adopted a more open approach to combatting the pandemic with most schools, restaurants, and businesses kept open. While they have much lower death figures than the larger European nations of the UK, France, and Italy, they have much higher figures than their Nordic neighbours; Denmark,
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Norway and Finland. Care home residents account for half of the deaths in the country with healthcare workers believing there is an institutional reluctance to admit patients to hospitals.
Russia Russia has denounced the US President Donald Trump’s threat to pull out of the WHO over its handling of this coronavirus pandemic. The Russian view is that even though there are failings within the WHO, to break it for the sake of one country’s political preferences would be wrong.
AUSTRALIA/ OCEANIA Australia Children in the Australian state of New South Wales will return to school from 25th May, Premier Gladys Berejiklian has announced. Unlike in other municipalities in developed nations, there will be no phased return, with all pupils due to return to five-day a week tuition. Teachers unions have reacted with scepticism to the plan and have raised a number of issues that need to be addressed. Berejiklian has warned that temporary school closures would likely be necessary in the future to contain sporadic outbreaks of the virus. The issue demonstrates how governments around the world will likely face opposition from trade unions over plans to restart normal life, with strikes over safety fears presenting a realistic possibility.
MIDDLE EAST
Iran Iran has condemned US sanctions as “inhumane” causing “unnecessary pain and suffering” to its population during the COVID-19 pandemic. The country currently has over 124,000 confirmed cases and 7,119 deaths.
UAE The Minister of State for the United Arab Emirates has said that COVID-19 could ease Gulf tensions but that countries would emerge “weaker, poorer and damaged”. The UAE, one of the wealthiest nations on the planet, has sent aid to Iran, the worst hit region in the area, and to the UK. The country made early preparations for the onset of the pandemic. In late January, the national security adviser warned the coming pandemic from China was going to completely overshadow concerns about the ongoing war in Yemen, where the UAE deployed forces against the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels for years before scaling back its involvement.
Israel Genetic analysis has shown that 70% of the country’s COVID-19 cases have come from travellers from the US. However, the findings have been based on a small sample size and have not been peer reviewed. It has posed the question as to why Americans were allowed to travel to the country up until 9th March, two weeks later than some European countries. The study also suggests that a small amount of ‘super spreaders’ are responsible for the majority of their cases.
The Chinese ambassador to Israel has been found dead in his apartment north of Tel Aviv. Initial indications are that Mr Du had died in his sleep of natural causes. He had been in self-isolation after arriving in Israel on the 15th February due to COVID-19 restrictions. In an interview with an Israeli newspaper before his death he had said that China was being used as a scapegoat in the spreading of the pandemic.
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WILSON JAMES ADVISORY
Our Risk Advisory Service regularly publish articles and advisories covering a myriad of subjects. These publications can be found within our Insights section on our Risk Advisory Service website.
Is it safe for schools to reopen in the UK? On Sunday 10th May, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced to the nation that schools in England will begin to reopen from 1st June 2020 after over two months in lockdown. Mr Johnson’s announcement changed the COVID-19 slogan from “Stay Home, Save Lives” to “Stay Alert, Control the Virus, Save Lives”, which was widely criticised as being too vague and could lead to a spike or “second wave” of infections if people become too complacent with social distancing. One week on, it is the decision to reopen schools that has perhaps caused the most controversy, with heavy criticisms from a number of healthcare experts, teaching unions, and education officials. So far, England stands apart from the rest of the UK as the only country to set a date for schools to reopen, prompting many to question whether it is the right decision for England and for the UK as a whole. In addition, official figures reported that the number of people who have died with the virus in the UK has further increased, which some fear is too high to be deemed safe, especially when juxtaposed with the recent success of countries such as New Zealand and Denmark. Read More. How has Covid-19 affected demonstrations against the state? Lockdowns in place due to Covid-19 have begun easing in most countries and with it the chance for people to get outside and start to travel again. While there has been an attempt for governments to get countries back to normal, this has had the side-effect of a rise in demonstrations and protesting after a period of prolonged quiet. However, with social distancing rules still in place, as well as a ban on mass gatherings, demonstrators are technically breaking the law just by meeting, even if it is peacefully, with repercussions from law enforcement. As people become increasingly tired and confused as to how to carry on with the social restrictions this could lead to more civil unrest. Read More.
