Update on COVID-19 in Canada:

Epidemiology and Modelling

November 20th, 2020

2

National daily case counts of COVID-19 increasing significantly

Data as of November 17, 2020

4,776 cases

On average, past 7-days

7-day moving averageReported cases

3

Rapid growth is occurring in several provinces

Data as of November 17, 2020

BC AB SK

ONMB QC

Num

ber

of cases p

er

100 0

00 p

opula

tion

Date of case report

More health regions are reporting higher rates of COVID-19 infection

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48 health regions

are reporting ≥50

cases per 100 000

population

COVID-19 cases per 100,000

population (past 14 days)

101 +

51 to 100

26 to 50

16 to 25

6 to 15

0 to 5

>0

Data as of November 17, 2020

Note: Map only shows COVID-19 cases where health region had been attributed in source data

Data sources: COVID-19 Canada Open Data Working Group. Epidemiological Data from the

COVID-19 Outbreak in Canada

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Each new case in Canada is spreading infection to more than one person,

keeping the epidemic in a growth pattern

Data as of November 14, 2020

Calculations are based on date of case report

Canada’s Rt over time

Since mid-August

Canada’s Rt has been

consistently > 1When Rt is consistently > 1,

the epidemic is growing

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

6

The percentage of people testing positive is increasing nationally

Data as of November 16, 2020

Num

be

ro

f p

eo

ple

te

ste

d

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

01-Apr 01-May 31-May 30-Jun 30-Jul 29-Aug 28-Sep 28-Oct

Num

ber

of

people

teste

d

Date

Number of People Tested Percent Positivity (7-day moving average)Number of people tested

Perc

ent

positiv

ity

National metrics do not capture lab testing data for AB post Nov. 5th due to non-reporting.

01Apr 01May 01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov

Percent positivity ( 7-day moving average)

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Data as of November 17, 2020

Escalating incidence among high-risk adults, aged 80 years and older

20 to 39 years

80+ years

Incomplete data

due to reporting lag

*First available of illness onset, specimen collection, laboratory test date

80+ years

Num

ber

of

cases p

er

100 0

00 p

opula

tion

(7-d

ay m

ovin

g a

vera

ge)

Date of illness onset*

8

Number and size of outbreaks are increasing in a variety of settings

8

More and larger outbreaks (>50 individuals) affecting long-term care homes and

healthcare settings

Outbreaks in long-term care homes put elderly residents at risk of life-

threatening illness

Outbreaks in health care settings affect patients and health care professionals

alike and put a strain on health system capacity

Indigenous communities are now seeing rapidly rising case numbers

Outbreaks are also being reported in schools and linked to social gatherings

9

Hospitalizations have increased following the increase in reported cases

9

Data as of November 17, 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep 01-Oct 01-Nov

Num

ber

of

cases in h

ospitals

per

10

0,0

00

popula

tion

BC AB SK MB ON QC

01Apr 01May 01Jun 01Jul 01Aug 01Sep 01Oct 01Nov

10

Experience of other countries warns of a surge in hospitalizations following

disease resurgence

Data as of November 7, 2020

Data sources: European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC) – COVID Tracking Project

Increasing number of COVID-19-related deaths following weeks of increased

disease activity in Canada

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Data as of November 17, 2020

65 deaths On average, past 7 days

Cumulative cases predicted to November 30:

366,500 to 378,600Cumulative deaths predicted to November 30:

11,870 to 12,120

Short-term forecast indicates continuation of rapid growth

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Extrapolation based on recent trends using a forecasting model (with ranges of uncertainty)

Longer-range forecast indicates that a stronger response is needed now to

slow the spread of COVID-19 • If we maintain the current

number of people we contact

each day – the epidemic will

continue to resurge: Grey line

• If we increase the current

number of people we contact

each day – the epidemic is

forecast to resurge faster and

stronger: Orange line

• If we reduce the current

number of people we contact

each day to only essential

activities through combined

individual precautions and

public health measures – the

epidemic is forecast to come

under control in most locations:

Blue line

incre

ase

decre

ase

13

maintain

Report

ed

cases

Methods: Anderson SC, Edwards AM, Yerlanov M, Mulberry N, Stockdale J, Iyaniwura SA, Falcao RC, Otterstatter MC, Irvine MA, Janjua NZ,

Coombs D, Colijn C. 2020. Estimating the impact of COVID-19 control measures using a Bayesian model of physical distancing.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20070086v1

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Slow the spread of COVID-19 throughout the holiday season

• Every effort you can make as an individual matters

• Strictly and consistently maintain personal protective

practices

• Follow the advice of local health authorities

• Limit errands and outings to the essential

• Keep in-person activities to household members

whenever possible

• Plan ahead for safer holidays and get creative

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APPENDIX

Longer-range forecast indicates that a stronger response is needed now to

slow the spread of COVID-19

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