2019 IFES - 1-Irwin [Read-Only] · 2019-12-23 · Microsoft PowerPoint - 2019 IFES - 1-Irwin...

2019: THAT Just Happened

Scott Irwin

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lDaily Closing Price for the November 2019 Soybean

Futures Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

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February 7, 2018: US implements a 30 percent tariff on all solar panel imports, except for those from Canada and a 20 percent tariff on washing machine imports

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March 23, 2018: US imposes a 25 percent tariff on all steel imports (except from Argentina, Australia, Brazil, and South Korea) and a 10 percent tariff on all aluminum imports (except from Argentina and Australia).

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April 4, 2018: China proposes 25 percent tariffs to be applied on 106 products (worth US$50 billion) on goods such as soybeans, automobile, chemicals (list revised on June 16).

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May 29, 2018: US reinstates tariff plans after brief truce.

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August 27, 2018: USDA announces Market Facilitation Program (MFP1) for farmers impacted by China’s tariffs

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U.S-China negotiations continue for remainder of 2018


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Daily Ratio of November 2019 Soybean and December 2019 Corn Futures Prices, January 2018 - October 2019

Breakeven


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2018 US Planted Acreage

Corn: 89.1 million

Soybean: 89.2 million

2019??

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sCumulative Monthly Precipitation Above Average in

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April 3-5, 2019 – US and China hold trade talks in WashingtonTrump says that the two sides will know “over the next four weeks” whether they can strike a deal. US and Chinese negotiators agree to continue talks the following week.

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April 3-5, 2019 – US and China hold trade talks in WashingtonTrump says that the two sides will know “over the next four weeks” whether they can strike a deal. US and Chinese negotiators agree to continue talks the following week.

May 10, 2019


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lDaily Closing Price for the December 2019 Corn Futures

Contract, January 2018 - October 2019

May 10, 2019

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2019 US Planted Acreage in May 10 WASDE Report

Corn: 92.8 million +3.7m

Soybeans: 84.6 million -4.6m

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Weekly Illinois Corn Planting Progress, 2019 vs. 2014-2018 Five-Year Average

2019

5-Year Average

June 2, 2019: 45% corn planting progress, 54% behind 5-year average


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June 17, 2019

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June 17, 2019

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June 17, 2019

"You will not receive payments if you do not plant," said Rob Johansson, USDA's chief economist. May 23, 2019

2019 US Corn Planted Acreage

May 10 WASDE Report Illinois

92.8 million 82.8 to 87.8 million


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2019 US Planted Acreage in June 28 USDA Report

Corn: 91.7 million+2.6m

Soybeans: 80.0 million-8.9m


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2019 US Planted Acreage in August 10 Reports

Corn: 90.0 million+0.8m

Soybeans: 76.7 million-12.5m

Corn Prevent Plant: 11.2 million

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Market Surprise for USDA August Corn Crop Reports,1965-2019

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Comparison of FSA and NASS Planted Acreage Estimates for Corn, 2011-2019*

NASS

FSA

*2019: NASS: Oct. 1; FSA: Nov.1

2018 2019 DifferenceCorn Planted 89.1 89.9 0.8

PP 0.9 11.4 10.5Total 90.1 101.4 11.3

Soybeans Planted 89.2 76.5 -12.7PP 0.3 4.5 4.2Total 89.4 80.9 -8.5

Corn Planted 178.30 166.40 -11.9and PP 1.21 15.89 14.7Soybeans Total 179.5 182.3 2.8

Adding Up Corn and Soybean Planted and Prevent Plant Acres in 2018 and 2019 (million acres)

2019 IFES - 1-Irwin [Read-Only] · 2019-12-23 · Microsoft PowerPoint - 2019 IFES - 1-Irwin...

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